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Long-time readers know that I have an interest in understanding how many soldiers die in Burma’s civil wars. Last year I wrote about the topic on a number of occasions, and these were followed by other commentaries, such as this one.
Now there is a report that “[a]ccording to KIA [Kachin Independence Army] sources the number of government troops lost over the past 10 months [since 9 June 2011, when the Kachin war recommenced] could be as high as 3,000” (emphasis added).
What would that mean?
If we take the prevailing estimate for the strength of Burma’s Army, Navy and Air Force (around 400,000), and then determine a reasonable fraction of combat troops (say 20 per cent, although some suggest that this figure is too high), we might conclude that the fighting force (of around 80,000) could have lost up to 4 per cent of its men in the past year. And that is just in engagements with the Kachin Independence Army. There has also been heavy fighting in other areas, particularly in parts of eastern Burma, during the same time period.
As I have stated in the past, it is very difficult to verify combat losses in Burma’s civil wars, and there are good reasons to be sceptical of any single claim.
But if anything like 3,000 Burmese troops have been killed (and not one of them seems to have received a public funeral or commemoration) then this is a big issue as the country gradually moves towards more transparent, participatory and responsive government. There was a time when we could just assume that there would be no scrutiny of sensitive national security matters, and especially Burmese army combat losses. But that assumption may no longer hold.
If they had a full tally of the costs of ethnic civil wars would the Burmese people ever accept these losses?
At some stage Burma’s leaders will need to account for the conduct of this war in the Kachin State. It is the blackest mark against President Thein Sein’s government and a significant dent to its reformist credentials.
And, as the war drags on month-after-month, its continuation seems to confirm the assessment that reformists are not the only ones with clout in the emerging quasi-civilian-praetorian-hybrid regime.
We tend to look at history as a series of stories with heroes to praise and villains to blame. For example, the Burmese Junta gets the blame for the violent cultural conflict there, instead of being seen as a product of it. Rather than holding those individuals responsible, it may be more effective to work to change the warring cultures in ways that lessen the conflict.
Democracy is compatible with cultural diversity only where members of each culture tolerate being governed by members of any other. There is a tendency for the citizens of countries that are culturally homogeneous enough to permit democracy to blame the leaders of less lucky countries for the lack of it there. It is this puerile view of history that has led the Americans and British to totally bungle the last 20 years of their foreign policy.
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I think if you are researching the useless deaths of soldiers conscripted or conned by nationalism into useless wars for profit by the ruling classes then you need to cast your net a lot wider than Burma. Does Halliburton ring a bell?
Most decorated US Marine General: Purpose of all US wars is billions for insiders’ profits: http://www.examiner.com/la-county-nonpartisan-in-los-angeles/most-decorated-us-marine-general-purpose-of-all-us-wars-is-billions-for-insiders-profits
Neither the Burmese or any other war profiting government could care less about the deaths and destruction, broken families, or parent-less children as long as the cash keeps flowing into their accounts, these people have no sense or morality.
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@#1
Thank you.
Knowing the history of unequivocal tenacity ( z_where) part of the Bamar trait that has assured their dominance.
Mentioned here by Ko Hla Oo and yes Ko Moe Aung to that effect:
Loss of 4% or even 20% is nothing to the Tamadaw.
Righteous indignation of the Citizenry, so often taken for granted will be absolutely new to history
Especially knowing how the military government has been able to hone their craft to suit their need either at the officer training at Pyin U Lwin or other training centers.
The scenario the West need to be aware is in the specifics of Aung San who has sought the fascist help, with this government the choice is the Chinese or the N. Koreans.
Guess who will be the generals 1st choice if things go south?
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Well Nich, the new conscription law must be their clever answer to any future shortage in the supply of cannon fodder. The existence of a vast army of unemployed youth in both urban and rural areas rather suits them unless these young men opt for a monastic life which most of them do not normally consider as a career choice. What can their parents do even if the umbilical cord can be very long in Burmese families?
The late chairman Brang Seng of the KIO , a former headmaster, gave his reason for entering into peace negotiations with the govt in 1980 in simple mathematical terms – say if a Kachin can kill ten Burmese in this conflict, when all the Kachins are dead there will still remain 20 million Burmese.
Were it not for the ongoing civil wars Thein Sein could definitely expect the next Nobel peace prize, no need to share it with ASSK who had already bagged one.
There is some truth in R.N. England’s assertion that the Burmese Junta gets the blame for the violent cultural conflict there, instead of being seen as a product of it, at the risk of letting the junta off the hook. While it takes two to tango, that’s where the Great White Saviours consistently make a mess of it, their forefathers in their colonial and evangelical zeal and the postmodern generation in their almost inherent patronising do-gooding (seen as meddling) missions among these undemocratic (read barbarian) nations.
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“letting the junta off of the hook” sure make clear, where your sentiment really is.
Ko Moe Aung
A sentiment that has hold neither logic nor compassion towards the humanity.
What hook? Compared to what?
There is no existing historical comparison, to this military government past actions, beyond garden variety ‘self survival’ that has NOW transformed into total dictatorship.
Thanks to the West short sighted policy and definitely no thanks to you and your ilks sentiment that has been driving this useless careless policy of the West with almost a permanent “low pass”.
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plan B,
A sentiment (do I read government?) that has hold neither logic nor compassion towards the humanity.
Nah…. you’d be too upset.
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Numbers will never be known.
What is likely though is the poorly trained ill equipped recruits in hordes walking into mined traps after traps in one of the most unforgiving terrains in the world against the locals.
Apart from money of dams, gems, woods and pipes, Bamar Chuavinsitc attitude of Bamar Sit-tut which is unchangable’ is feeding the frezy. There is NO INCREASING openness of news. They have absolute torrent of news they want to let out and complete darkness of news they don’t want.
All are predictable and absolutely stable traits of the Bamar Army. What is disappointing and will be the cause of the failure of current hula-baloo by everybody is the total ignorance of these inhumane sufferings -apart from blanket giving ceremonies- by the so-called “Democratic Opposition” which is acting more and more like the military government’s agents. In Burmese ‘ Thu lu, ko bac thar’ , their man in our camp. Aung San Suu Kyi is now official enforcer for the Military which she admires.
Yet the rightous cause of the Kachin will prevail in spite of all these and the same people will start to crow how they have valliantly defended the Kachin cause.
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The Tatmadaw usually leave their dead where they fall, unless it’s a high ranking officer.
I spoke to a Karenni colonel about the failed attack on his mountaintop camp. He told me that the Burmese soldiers were left where they died, and some bodies were carried further down the mountain to alleviate the overpowering smell.
When the Karenni Army offered to let the Burmese collect their dead, the reply was, “What for? They’re of no use to us now”.
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Charles F.
Fascination or prurient intent.
Pray tell us @ New Mandala:
Why such interest in Bamar soldier inglorious fate while neglecting the more inhumane suffering of the citizenry.
http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/country-health-profile/myanmar
Most of the undeserving collateral casualties listed above get rolled up in a cheap mat at best or suffer the similar fate as you described so vividly.
Do verify with: Free Funeral Services Society.
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plan B,
You never cease to amaze me with your careless useless posts.
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[…] some new federal structure, a Panglong II. In addition, as New Mandala rightly notes, the claimed high casualty figures in the Kachin conflict –KIA sources claims 3,000 Burmese soldiers have been killed in recent […]
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Don’t believe in the repel propaganda news.Okay?Every news from them always say we always died in combat.No one of them died in combat.Stupid news.KIA,MNDAA,AA,TNLA They are all the same.
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OMG!3000 in 10 months?If you really want to know I will Tell You.From 1948 to 2012 (34563)soldiers died in combat.
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