I was interviewed on ABC Radio’s World Today earlier this afternoon about the situation in Bangkok. Here is the sound file. (Higher quality of the full show available here.) In brief, I put the following views:

  1. The red shirts are in a stronger position now than they were before Saturday.
  2. The crisis cannot be resolved by force. Abhisit will have to negotiate.
  3. The army “won’t have the stomach” to attempt another crackdown and impose even more casualties.
  4. The constitution remains a problem, because it could easily be used to undo the results of the election.
  5. Perhaps an election in July or August, but it is not clear if the result would be accepted.
  6. The king is not a mediating factor. Apart from his health, the palace’s symbolic power has been clearly aligned with the “yellow” side.
  7. If the current confrontation is not resolved, there is a danger that it will spread outside Bangkok.

I am sure New Mandala readers will have many views on one or more of the above.

And, for balance, here is Professor Carl Trocki on ABC Breakfast this morning.

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