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Last week I wrote an overview essay on Thai political futures titled “Red hot challenges for Thailand”. It was published in The Canberra Times over the weekend. In one section I suggest that:
At every opportunity over the past decade the Thai people have resoundingly endorsed Thaksin’s political juggernaut. Elite powerbrokers struggle to accept these popular judgements and express bewilderment that Thaksin still commands the most effective election-winning machine in Thai history. His success repudiates the privilege of unelected elites and white-ants their claims to represent the best interests of the country.
There is much more than can be said on this topic, especially in light of reported efforts to immediately re-escalate Thailand’s political conflict.
Thaksin and the red shirts enjoy a marriage of convenience….for now. The red shirts use his money while Thaksin uses their electoral clout. What happens in the next couple of years between Thaksin and the entrenched elite will be a side show compared to the real battle once the interests of the red shirts and Thaksin part ways.
For now, the red shirts are likely to be disappointed in PT as the party seeks reconciliation with former foes (and perhaps even puts Thaksin’s personal interests first). But in the long term, the electorate’s aspirations will have to be met, or PT will find itself being steamrollered by its own voters as they turn to radical action. The tail can’t wag the dog forever. The days of rural Thais submitting meekly as pawns in elite family power struggles are over.
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C1. How the Thaksin-red shirt axis goes will depend on how the elite react. If they do a nice cuddly deal with Thaksin then with time the whole political grouping will drift apart, but while the elite remain interferring the axis will remain solid against a common enemy
Also dont underestimate Thaksin’s own electoral clout and popularity with many.
The reds too are made up of many groups across the political spectrum as indeed is PTP itself and splits if they do occur within the current allies will likely not be only characterised by red-Thaksin splits
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C2
Perhaps I used the term “red shirts” too loosely. I should really use something broader like “mass peoples’ movement” instead.
I agree that the red shirts as a single entity are not yet sufficiently organised to prevent major splits occurring.
However, the “mass peoples’ movement” has achieved high levels of awareness of its plight – a critical first step. It has not yet achieved high levels of organisation – a critical second step. This is a fact that Thaksin will happily exploit while the situation lasts. However, it won’t last. In the longer term, the “mass peoples’ movement” will either find their true voice through PT or, failing that, they will organise themselves and find someone else, perhaps within their own ranks. Either way, red shirt supporters serve PT for now. But in the long term, PT will have to serve them.
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C3
I agree the future of Thailand will be class based politics as elsewhere and probably still tinged with regional based politics for quite some time. We would expect the devlopment of social-democratic and conservative parties over time but whether these stem from the PTP and Dems seems a little more complicated right now compared to back around 2005 when this seemed to be more likely. Or maybe we will end up with a Singapore style democracy based around Thaksin, or even PTP evolve to be the conservative side with a new mass movement left party and the Dems left as a third party or even make enough mistakes to become a footnote of history.
While all that remains uncertain, one thing that seems definite is that although the elite do not have the means to shape the future, their actions will be causal in what way it actually goes, imho
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Agree with both Nobody (hard to agree with nobody, if you cannot use a real name please choose a better fake) and with Stuart.
I think that Nobody’s observation, applied retroactively, would have us in the post-Thaksin era right now, if the Democrat dunces played politics instead of rolling over for the Royal Thai Army five long years ago.
But the Democrats problem is not that they are dunces, really, it is that they are irreconcilably opposed to Democracy, and hence to democratic politics. So it’ll be Ground Hog Day everyday in Thailand until they are either eponymously transformed or their influence in Thai politics is completely reduced, to zero.
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Agree with Nobody on the point of the Democrat/regressive forces keeping PTP and the redshirts more nearly intact as a unit than would otherwise be the case.
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the Democrats, elites and monarchy continue to resist the transition to democracy they seem to think they hold their old hierarchical patronage structure which has served their greed wealth and power for the last few decades
what they have not grasped and observed elsewhere us that capitalism embedded in a democratic structure can still provide them the wealth and power they crave.
on the surface democracy is more risky for them but all it needs is for them to develop their own strategies and election machine and they too can enjoy the wealth and power benefits that rich in the big capitalist nations enjoy.
the lesson in all of this is that even if the poor and weak manage to transition Thailand to democracy it should give them a bit less overt repression and less manipulated legal system but otherwise will not necessarily improve their lot.
which I guess is what Ji Ungaporn can see.
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to David Brown. Can the Thai elite really make it in capitalism? The main source of profits are land holdings, monopolies and licences that generate rents. Rent seeking is basically a “feudal” mode of appropriation limiting profits for capitalists! The elite seems to be quite sure what kind of political-economic system they need to survive.
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Shades of October 1973:
(1) The student movement which brought down the Unholy Trinity of Thanom/Praphat/Narong quickly broke up into university and technical college factions.
(2) As Thai students were demonstrating on the streets of Bangkok, Israel and its Arab neighbours were fighting the Yom Kippur War. Arab defeat prompted a huge increase in oil prices, having a devastating impact on the Thai economy which the rightists promptly blamed on “democracy”.
A split between the UDD and the Phuea Thai Party is already becoming apparent. My guess is that one year from now Da Torpedo will still be in gaol, but she will not be enjoying the company of any soldiers convicted of murdering Red Shirts.
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Well, Nicholas continues to fully participate in the well orchestrated campaign by the foreign observers and press to make this into some sort of ideological battle between the forces of good that represent an “open electoral competition” and what are described as “coup plotters, Elite powerbrokers, unelected elites and white-ants, palace and army factions, anti-Thaksin forces that in “their alternative vision for the country – one where royal and military powerbrokers ride roughshod over electorate mandates”.
In another of his biased one sided pieces he again and again fails to mention, much less acknowledge that far from being any sort ideological war, it is a power struggle between many factions of “unelected elites”, many of whom change sides depending on which way the prevailing wind is blowing.
Here is the classic case, Nicholas says:
At every opportunity over the past decade the Thai people have resoundingly endorsed Thaksin’s political juggernaut. Elite powerbrokers struggle to accept these popular judgments and express bewilderment that Thaksin still commands the most effective election-winning machine in Thai history. His success repudiates the privilege of unelected elites and white-ants their claims to represent the best interests of the country.
The only full truth in that statement is the mention of the “most effective election-winning machine in Thai history” but then he turns that around into some sort of national mandate repudiating the “unelected elites and white-ants” and fails to mention what how that “election winning machine” actually works and if it that machine actually represents any real change in Thai politics.
Even cursory study of the geography of the results of every election in the past 10 years would show that rather the repudiating “ the privilege of unelected elites and white-ants and their claims to represent the best interests of the country”, it merely shows that Thaksin has continued to succeed in getting the major powerbrokers from several of the main population areas into a uneasy coalition united only in the ambition to get into which ever government happens to hold the majority of Parliament at that moment.
How else do you explain the great expanses of blue in south and up the western side of Thailand in Chris Baker’s election map? How about those bits of blue right smack in the middle of all the red in the northeast? Are these isolated pockets of people that want the “unelected elites and white-ants” to represent them? Of course not. Those are simply areas where the major powerbrokers have for their own reasons chosen not support Thaksin and his ongoing attempt to run Thailand with a single dominating coalition that tolerates no dissent (sound familiar?).
But does Nicholas bother to mention any of this, of course not. He just continues with his sweeping general statements of a vast number of “provincial voters who repeatedly throw their support behind the big-city billionaire”, failing to mention how geographically specific that provincial support is and what that actually means when areas that are almost demographically similar don’t vote for the big city billionaire and his proxies.
Only in his last paragraph does he come close to acknowledging the reality of the situation that the UDD grassroots is going to betrayed. After all, the last thing the provincial powerbrokers want is the goals of the UDD to be actually realized. My hope is, someday, the grassroots will realize it is their very own leaders that are the real enemy.
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Think that Stuart and HRK have made excellent points. PT needs to somehow survive on a tightrope between warring interests, friendly and unfriendly, tossing a little bit to all.
A worldwide economic collapse, after government stooges for the banksters can no longer kick the can down the road, certainly won’t help Thai exports, tourism etc. It will be an interesting show to watch.
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THB 15,000 starting salary for all university graduates regardless of where employed or by whom employed was promised. Since this won’t be implemented there may be some disappointment.
Immediate rise in the minimum wage to THB300 per day promised. This too won’t be delivered – no matter how fair one might think it is.
Insofar as these two election promises, along with computer pads for all secondary school students, could be taken as an indication of largess in general I suppose it might not matter that much. It’s the thought that counts.
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@David Brown #7:
“what they have not grasped and observed elsewhere us that capitalism embedded in a democratic structure can still provide them the wealth and power they crave.”
That’s the whole point, it can’t or they would already have embraced it. The Thai survives not on wealth but on self-esteem. On perceived status. Substance is meaningless in Thailand, appearance (however dishonestly projected) is everything. Thai bigwigs are used to deference which they just don’t get elsewhere than Thailand; this is the reason there are so very few international Thai organisations. Also, the Thai bigwig did not get rich using the capitalist concepts of open competition and fair trade, they got rich by personal relationships and corrupt practices, just like many places in the west but magnified far beyond what would be tolerated in the west.
Capitalism as we understand it in the west is the nemesis of the Thai elite, it is precisely because they understand they cannot survive in an openly competitive market that they resist the move towards democracy. They are not about to let some unwashed peasant from Isaan tell them how to be fair, equitable and democratic when they’ve done so very well being precisely the opposite of that.
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Robert – 12
The 300 baht policy was meant for BKK and surrounding area only, I have to admit the first time I heard about the policy made me felt like this is more of a marketing scheme. I’m not expecting too much on this.
However, I still think 15,000 is not that far fetch. Skilled labor should not be cheap but it should also be worth to invest. Thailand need to promote business that required high skill, as long as the money invest into those skilled labor yield a good return. Same with why silicon valley never been move to somewhere in India because its worth the money to invest there.
Last, its not “computer pad” its ” tablet” and its noting compare to computer capability wise. If you follow the news, India and S. Korea already plan to introduce tablet into their education system, the plus with tablet is that the government will save a lot of on books in the future and students dont have to carry 7 text books to school everyday.
All in all, I dont think this government will last more than 6 months (assumed they dont get disbanded).
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As long as Thailand’s archaic and revered ‘patronage system’ exists in the kingdom, real democracy will never arrive. Thai elites and all patrons right down the class scale have used the ‘patronage system’ not only to act with impunity but to enrich themselves so as to enforce their influence and control.
Sooner or later the broader population will acknowledge their folly by allowing these pseudo masters to control their democratic freedom.
The only question is when???
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Tarrin -14
Nah, the policy is for THB300 immediate in all provinces. Well, according the statements today of Labour Ministry permanent secretary Somkiat Chayasriwong it’s for all Provinces. I believe this was the understanding of those who voted also.
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Robert – 16
I got info from Thaksin interview, it turns out Thaksin and Somkiet were giving two different things. I’m aware of what Somkiet said but I think what Thaksin said is much more realistic but I still think they should do this slowly not an instant jump and the whole thing is just a marketing scheme
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Yeah, I noticed that Thaksin said that. Still, it’s the stated policy of the Prime Minister elect and the Pheu Thai party for THB300 nationwide immediately. This is what they campaigned on. This is one of the things people voted for and this is what’s being talked of here pretty much 24/7 – the Federation of Thai Industries is in high dudgeon!
With the THB15,000 for all graduates with Bachelor degrees as starting salary – does this apply to civil servants? If so, this is going to wreak havok over at the Office of the Civil Service Commission. It’s sort of damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t really. If it does, then all those civil servants C5 or below are going to need substantial pay rises just so the juniors aren’t above them in pay rate when they first walk on the job. Can’t have that. Certainly not in the civil service! If it doesn’t apply to civil servants, then good luck getting ANY new civil servants to implement the policies with which the government was elected. Pretty hard getting any teachers too.
One other part of the Election Platform I don’t quite understand – the debt forgiveness program for all teachers who owe up to THB500,000. Do they mean only those who have borrowed from the government or from anyone whatsoever?
Anyway, it’s going to be fun as all this is worked out as I’m sure it will be to everyone’s satisfaction.
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About 23:00 BKK Time, VoiceTV reported that the EC still cannot endorse Yingluck as Pheu Thai party-list MP, along with 12 other MP’s who are from UDD.
Abhisit and other MP’s are not endorse either.
So my question is whether EC wants to start another crisis ?
http://news.voicetv.co.th/thailand/14163.html
Further pls check this link too:
http://www.facebook.com/UDDInternationalNews/posts/242374909106077
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If non-implementation of policies occurs the question will be where blame goes. No party is as effective as getting message over as PTP.
Now if the government doesnt get seated because of some panicky establishment ruse, there will be many people saying hey Im not getting the tab for kiddy, and Im still only on 167 for digging holes and I could do with that credit card to get some fertilizer and it is all because they wont let the government I voted for into power.
And if it could also happen that the tab never came because the education minister was from because of those pesky little coalition parties that everyone knows used to be all matey with Abhisit.
And of course, if there is all this pressure form all those rich business people or some little rule about borrowing that some court wants to enforce
Or horror of horrors just as the government were going to give the goodies out along came a coup or court decision
In there lies the establishments problem, interfering with PTP as no doubt they will try, will likely result in them blamed for stopping the poor get a better deal. They really have little choice but to let PTP get on with anything they want to do and face the wrath of voters if they cant deliver. However, it wont work that way as the establishment just wont be able to stop themselves interfering with the all too predictable results that everyone except those in the establishment will be able to see.
It is more than just about marketing. The PTP have learned lessons from their set backs and defeats, while their opponents still fail to grasp any reality
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Nobody #20
excellent post!
And had the establishment just allowed things to play its course in 2006 without a couping interference, wonder who the voters would take the wrath out on in 2008 when the market crashed!
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Given Thaksin’s legendary tightfistedness, the reluctance of red shirt leaders to get back into their box after having served their purpose and the cynical way that PT is already reneging on its far fetched electoral promises, it is highly likely that serious rifts will appear between the UDD and PT as well as within the UDD. Perhaps we will eventually see the red shirts running a “no vote” campaign complete with caricatures of the animals they unwittingly put into parliament.
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In the next few weeks I will have my Literature students studying documents surrounding the English Civil War (having just covered the so-called “King James” Bible . Everything seems to evolve out of KJ I’s attempt to replace the seditious Geneva Bible that had commentary against extreme unction and the response of Puritans and Parliamentarians to limit the authority and role of the monarchy. Cromwell was in a position to declare the banishment of royalty altogether in a sort of Grand Republic. The Puritans who founded the Plymouth Bay Colony sure had republican ideas.
Although we can’t use the Thai govt. university classroom to discuss the political situation very effectively, I can only imagine what Thai students might seek to apply from this theme.
Do New Mandela readers want to help limit the parallels to the Thai situation?
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