There are many theories, most of them fused with conspiratorial intrigue, that are filling column inches since yesterday’s “assassination attempt”. For those not in the loop on decades of Thai power grabs, military politics and shifting allegiances, the discussion all probably seems obscure and personal.

With the Class 7 heavies, the Thaksinites, factions in the intelligence services, and potentially a number of other “gangs” all involved – this will not be resolved quickly or simply. Like everyone else, the New Mandala team are scratching our collective head.

As I wrote on August 20 – in this year of spectacular upheaval and instability – nobody can guess what might happen next. That international investment and domestic consumer confidence may falter seems likely in the very short-term. The political impasse will also start to impact other areas of everyday life before too long. Nothing is certain.

Such uncertainty can, of course, lead to unexpected actions and reactions. Rash decisions and over-reactions are not out of the question. Watch this space for more analysis as further information comes to hand.