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Another big weekend in Thai politics is coming up. Suthep Thaugsuban — the anti-Thaksin insurrectionist — is calling for a million people to hit the streets and bring Bangkok to a standstill.
But for those of you keeping score the weekend marks another milestone. It is now almost six years since the 23 December 2007 victory of Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai 2.0 (more officially known as the “People Power Party) in the post-coup election.
As more years tick by, I am increasingly convinced that the savvy pro-Thaksin campaign of that year, spearheaded by the indefatigable and divisive Samak Sundaravej, marks a key period in the country’s long-term battles.
Those of you who are intrigued by this history will enjoy Michael H. Nelson’s series of detailed New Mandala posts about the 2007 campaign in Chachoengsao province. There’s an especially interesting post on the oath for a “clean and fair” campaign and another on the provincial-level advertisement of the election. There’s also Chris Baker’s superb map of the result.
What has changed since then? For all the blood spilled, speeches given, crowds rallied, and votes cast, has Thailand managed any progress? Are there signs that good things will follow?
In response to these questions, and in preparation for this weekend’s anti-government protests, it’s worth drawing attention to Joshua Kurlantzick’s thoughtful analysis of the Thai scene. He fires a broadside at the idea that Thailand’s politics are exceptional and, along the way, offers insights about political change across the Southeast Asian region.
As Kurlantzick helpfully points out:
…other countries in the region have made a gradual transition toward building trusted formal institutions of conflict mediation and away from having disputes mediated by informal institutions gathered around one or two top leaders, as was common in Suharto’s Indonesia and has been the case with Thailand’s network monarchy for years. Indonesia slowly has built a more stable and trusted court system, and more trusted institutions designed to monitor elections and address potential electoral fraud. Poorer than Thailand, and in many ways far more divided and harder to govern, Indonesia nonetheless has created reasonably stable formal institutions, allowing politics to be channeled through a system, and no longer through the hands of a small handful of men and women.
So what happens next? Is Thailand showing any appetite for an Indonesia-style transformation? Of course, there’s coup talk again.
Michael Nelson, Duncan McCargo, and Paul Chambers are worth reading. And especially Kuriantzick. Ther’s some good factual stuff out there. Well summarised article, NF. Thanks for sharing.
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Who is the ugly guy sitting surrounded by the Reds? He looks familiar. Friend or foe (of what camp)? Being arrested or being freed?
Had his gun been found and matched with the victims at Ramkhamhaeng U riots? (now I remember)
http://www.newmandala.org/2013/12/10/ramkhamhaeng-a-view-from-inside-the-stadium/
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Compared to any of the neighbours, Thailand is unique in the way the resident western commentariat see it and write about it. Perhaps we have also bought into the “uniqueness” myth?
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Joshua Kurlantzick raises good points – BUT : Indonesia has two HUGE Muslim organistions – Nhadtul Ulama and Muhamidayh – which give it the democratic stability Thailand lacks.
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Chris:
I am interested in the reasoning behind how the two muslim groups help stabilize Indonesian democracy. In a nutshell if possible, plus perhaps a recommendation of a couple of academic readings.
Thanks very much in advance.
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Yes. I think many us would be grateful for that Chris. I prefer reading sourced and though-out comment on New Mandela and not these Thaivisa type comments that sometimes creep in.
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Gee, guys. It is pretty basic assuming that you don’t fundamentally believe that Muslim organizations are inherently destabilizing. If a majority percentage of the populous is Muslim and you have political parties that represent them, then they have a say in the government theoretically. You don’t really need a bunch of links to infer that, guys. I think residents of E. Timor and elsewhere might not wish to see ‘their fatherland’ described in such glowing terms. Try looking elsewhere, i.e., Sam Rainsy, if you are seeking anything remotely pluralistic in conception in this region…or any other, by the way.
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In retrospect, Gen. Wiranto’s hesitation to stage a coup or not after Suharto stepped down was also an important factor. If he had acted like Thailand’s Suchinda in 1991, Indonesia would have had another story.
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Bambang – also, it should be stated that the outcome was DE-FECTO decentralisation / federalism in Indonesia, partly because Indonesia’s regional military commanders wanted it that way. If anything, it increased their regional power. Same for Thailand ?
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To understand the specifics of the Thai situation, comparison is necessary. The recent election in Malaysia indicated two similarities:
1.We have an entrenched political elite that tries to maintain its dominant position against a strengthening opposition,
2.The election is decided in the countryside.
There is, however, an important difference. In Malaysia political power and political decision making (under political I understand decisions concerning the shaping of the future of the country), rests with elected politicians. Due to the general acceptance of state institutions, political procedures based on the respective organisations (parliament, ministries, etc.) have legitimacy. This is one reason why we have a quite strong political discussion among the people, but hardly any attempts to challenge state power. In Thailand, in contrast, the political influence of politicians remains rather limited. In contrast, groups on the national as well as local level that control resources apply these to exercise political power that facilitates their particular political, cultural and economic interests. Instead of coalitions between parties within legislative institutions, linkages and compromises reached behind very closed doors among the respective strategic groups is crucial. Political discussion is rather limited and mainly substituted by ritual (including large scale demonstrations) and emotion. Both have in common that critique of political elites is sanctioned by laws (ISA or 112). However, while in Malaysia the political process might allow for reform, the problem in Thailand is that any reform requires far reaching structural change, for the politisation of politics, not the least because democracy is a system that limits extra-political power to dominate politics. Thus, democratization is of course against the interests of these groups. Somehow, the present democrat party can be understood as the political arm of non-political elites to limit political power of politicians. Thus, elections are regarded as bad.
It is quite interesting to look at the arguments in the current conflict. These are mainly emotional (we hate Thaksin and love Thailand), generalized (corruption, regime), millenniaristic (if the bad people leave all will be good), and hardly ever political in the sense of alternative political ideas. The peoples council is neither legal nor are the procedures how it is to be set up and what power it should have defined.
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Nomi – there are many great sources re. the mass Muslim organaisations support for Indonesian democracy. Prof. Greg Foley’s book “Abdurahmin Wahid”: is a good starting point. Also well worth looking at are excellent articles in the magazine Inside Indonesia, especially those covering the Suharto / post Suharto transistion. I was involved with Inside Indonesia, at that time. Also well worth looking at are issues of the Far Eastern Economic Review (FEER), covering that period. And anything covering the role of Amien Rais, and his huge modernist Mudhammidayah movement, is also very insightful.
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Well, the army chief just refused to rule out a coup. In fact, he said it ‘could happen’ (although the military was trying to stay neutral).
And Deputy PM / Foreign Minister / Thaksin’s cousin is reported as saying that some members of the government would prefer a coup to handing over to Suthep et al.
Politically this country is completely dysfunctional.
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Thailand is in the grip of a parliamentary dictatorship so of course politics is dysfunctional. But politically,despite the dearth of well-educated and well informed voters, there is space for other voices and most of them are making a ‘now or never’ stand for a new deal for everyone.
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Any chance of getting the colour of links changed to something more obvious? They are practically invisible.
Thanks and have a good new year.
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I guess NM ran out of neutral colors. Watermelon Red, Sanyasin Powder Orange, Fascist Border Police & Ninja Black, Conservative True Blue, Cowardly Custard Yellow, Military Khaki, Virginal Holier-than-thou White, Nouveaux Prai Chianti Red and Non-Pinko Pink are all pretty much reserved by the the massed forces of succession fever reaction.
A very spiteful Christmas & New Year to ALL factions of this country’s fascist mafia troublemakers, their variously color-coded thugs and their money-grabbing cronies & apologists.
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Wow, Southeps latest speech is quite telling, BKK post reported: ‘He said the PDRC will not leave “a square inch” of Bangkok for Thaksin supporters and told those who disagreed with this move to leave the capital for good.
Its hard to see any hope for a peaceful resolution now that Southep is sincerely announcing that anyone who disagrees with his personal political ambitions should vacate Bangkok.
Its clear where he is going with this train of thought and it is not a unified Thailand where people of differing political persuasions can live together in peace and discuss their differences.
In Southeps world, political views can only be tolerated if they occur outside of his beloved Bangkok and the South where he and his ‘people’ demand absolute control over the reigns of power.
The big question is whether or not he will succeed in leveraging his overwhelming hate and ambition into widespread violence which could (potentially) achieve his long term goal of separating his beloved South and Bangkok from the rest of the nation.
If only the protestors would follow a balanced and thoughtful leader instead of a man seething with and preaching hate, I could then march along side the protestors to demand better governance and less corruption.
Interesting and dangerous times lay ahead for Thailand.
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March along side these people? Even without Suthep, I don’t see how the Democrats can talk about a “clean” Govt. They have been [email protected]#$% Thailand for years.
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If there is a balanced and thoughtful leader, he or she wont be marching in protest for better governance.
He or She will be working with the grassroots and bureaucrats, formulating policies for the betterment of the whole country.
And I will be working for free and tiredlessly campaigning and promoting Him or Her, their Party and their policy every single election. And in between elections, I will be more than happy to contribute time and effort into researching needs of grassroot communities, and communicating those data to the policies-formulators.
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The histrionics which Suthep gradually works up to are part of the show which mass politics requires to motivate the electorate and are not always to be taken at face value. Surely that should be obvious?
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” … PDRC will not leave “a square inch” of Bangkok for Thaksin supporters …” seems to be working only too well. PM YIngluck had been scared off to non-stop silly trips to the Isan country and could not return to Bangkok. Maybe PM YIngluck should resign if she could not govern. She had lost her legitimacy long long time ago anyway … the puppet.
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Yes, the only legit rulers are the ones who had to do a coup every time.. Democrats supporters sure have a twisted sense of logic.
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That’s because of Thailand’s skewed semi-democracy which is deficient in both educated, well-informed voters. Furthermore, isn’t it true that no parliamentary opposition leader in Thailand has ever succeeded directly to the Prime Minister-ship?
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For well over five years now I’ve been speculating about whether Isaarn and Lanna would secede. It appears I was wrong. It appears Khun Suthep is the one calling for secession – i.e. of Bangkok and his beloved South.
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“Anti-government protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban on Thursday (Jan2/2014) night set out the details of the plan to paralyse Bangkok on Jan 13 which involves road blockades to tie up city traffic, power and water cuts and preventing all civil servants from working.” (http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/387660/suthep-details-plan-to-paralyse-bangkok)
Kamnan Thep definitely has gone completely daft!
But if Yingluck as PM could not, is incapable of, and completely useless, to stop Kamnan Thep with his lunatic scheme to shut down Bangkok come Jan. 13th, then she should resign now, pack her bags and leave Thailand forever.
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Khun Vichai, please kindly elaborate on what you would and could practically do in the PM’s shoes?
The other side has the backing of the unmentionables, and implicit backing of tanks, snipers, and machine guns.
Can you order police to act, knowing it will be the excuse for the big guns to intervene. You will be pointlessly risking our poor fellow Thais lives – yes, our police force are fellow Thais, not Cambodians.
Can you order the Army to act? Do you think Prayuth will obey commands to safeguard the state from PM Vichai?
Yes, PM Yingluck made a mistake with the amnesty bill. Seriously, do you think this is about the amnesty bill? Suthep and gang has been nitpicking every single speck of dust for a trigger to chaos. Sooner or later, something will ignite. If not this, then something else one, two, maybe three months down the road.
There is a significant difference between a gang vindictively making a country ungovernable vs a caretaker PM who is not a top-calibre politician.
Personally, I rather see Suthep pack up and leave Thailand permanently. And I have no objection to Yingluck returning to managing her business and enjoying her time as mother to her child, in Thailand.
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Maybe you should really ask Suthep to leave Thailand and stop making excuses for the Democrats, while you are at it.
While I do not totally agree with Yinluck’s passive approach, I do not see how this can be resolve without “force” by the authorities. We are talking about a desperate, ruthless lunatic here.
If Suthep had tried this anywhere else in the world, Govt forces would have gone in (violently or otherwise), arrested him, locked him up and threw away the keys. Suthep can do this in Thailand due to the not so silent backing of the Democrats, army and the democrat’s “setup” judiciary.
If you want to talk about reforms, then please discuss the “lack of any reform action” while the Democrats rule Thailand after they were installed as Govt after a whole series of coups. Of course the Democrats must be forgiven, as they were too busy ripping off the country and did not have time for reforms.
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Fact Check: Long overdue as well as blindingly obvious education reform and rice pledging reform (as well as others)made by PM Abhisit were promptly undone and indeed perverted as part of Thaksin’s effort to demonize his opponents.
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Crazy like a fox: I reckon he’ll get the job done. Do you hear what the Kamnan is cookin’?
Thailand’s been ripe for revolution for ages and Thaksin’s blind greed and arrogance have provided the momentum for the middle-class to push for a ‘new deal’. As Regan said re toppling the despotic Soviet Union: “If not now – when? If not us – who?”
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Vichai, prime ministers in Thailand are never in complete control of government. Networks
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Dear Vichai – I’m surprised at what ignorance you show about how Thailand works and the ubiquitous Patronage System that underlies all else in Thailand.
How can the mere elected Prime Minister Yingluck stop the mad dog Khun Suthep’s grand plan and vision to shut down and trash the glittering capitol city of Bangkok in the middle of the tourist High Season….
When the Thai Army is providing an invisible protective shield for the rabid Big Boss from Surat Thani, in fact, even having its own people act as his personal bodyguards.
When the CPB and some of the richest and most powerful Patrons in Thailand are encouraging Khun Suthep and his motley crew of hi-so’s, mid-so’s and rubber plantation workers to flood Bangkok’s streets with chaos, mayhem and violence.
After all, doesn’t everybody (with the possible exception of Vichai) know that whenever Khun Suthep’s Patrons decide to hit the off switch, the sleek-haired beauty from the south (who counts even Ko Phangan and Ko Samui among his many possessions, not to speak of a good percentage of Thailand’s palm oil supplies and even the classic Phuket Land Scandal/corruption story) will pack his bags, pick up his bonus and head quietly back to his Surat Thani bailiwick.
Until then, there is little or nothing a mere elected Thailand Prime Minister can do, except just sit, wait, and give the “Good People” time to think through the ultimate consequences of what they and their mad dog Suthep are doing.
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Is that all the yaps you could all (Nomi, Neptunian,Robert and Matt) muster — to paint Yingluck as a hapless, sniffling, defenseless and honest-mistaking ‘passive’ administrator? More appropriate adjectives to me seem to be corrupt, inept, dishonest, self-serving big-time, and heavily conflicted. And she deliberately pushed on with her unconstitutional measures to get self-serving amnesty bill passed because her fugitive brother Thaksin instructed her so (same instructions to the other 310 or so Thaksin-servants-who-pretended-to-be-legislators).
Yingluck had completely lost her legitimacy to rule and the elites have nothing to do with it. The only elite that comes to mind who orchestrated Yingluck’s rapid downfall is her malicious brother, the fugitive Thaksin, who again overreached and flaunted his ‘impunity’ because he believes himself with ‘unique’ privileges and voodoo powers.
If the only creatures in Thailand listening to Yingluck’s commands is her dog(s), then she should really pack her bags and leave the PM’s office.
Nomi asks Vichai N a hypothetical question: In her shoes, what could I have done? Nothing better I suppose, because the grievous insults Yingluck and her 310 Thaksin-servants-pretending-to-be-legislators had visited upon the Thais, Yingluck could no longer get undone. Yingluck, like her malodorous brother Thaksin, are damaged goods permanently.
I am not surprised the Thai generals hesitate to take any action at Yingluck’s behest. Yingluck Shinawatra no longer holds any moral sway or legitimacy is why. To people of Bangkok and many parts of Thailand, save the Isan region perhaps, Yingluck Shinawatra is a big joke.
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Vichai,
This is not even about Mr T anymore. Get over it. Nor is this about corruption, because no one, not one, in Thai politics is clean of that taint.
I voted PTP, because Yingluck Shinawatr is the leader NOT.
I voted PTP because PTP is the most probable party to rip up the 2007 military-concocted constitution, and either return us to the 1997 constitution that was fully paid in blood by the sacrifices of hundreds of lives in ’92, or push forth a referendum for a new one by the people, not the army.
I voted PTP because I wanted to see all, ALL, senators elected and fully accountable to voters. That PTP actually tried to fulfill that election promise validated my vote.
Not all voters vote against Democrat Party because they like or support the Shinawatrs. There are many other issues to vote for, and DP offered nothing but a boogeyman and a witch hunt. Sorry, Thailand deserve more than that. We deserve more than bitterness, hatred, and fear for one man who is not even in the country. If there is a better party than PTP more likely to push for 100% elected senators and terminate Les Majeste Law, I would have voted for them- no hestitation there.
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Lets talk about big jokes.
We have the Democrat Party, backed by Prem, Military, Bangkok, Elites, English Media, most local media, the ‘educated people’, Monarchy, Monastry. The Military coup that dispose of Thaksin stack the decks by staffing the key bureaucracy, judicial, courts, administrative, with staunch Anti-Thaksinites. After confiscating almost a billion dollars of Thaksin’s wealth (now, Thaksin at that point is no longer in top ten richest in Thailand), Democrat Party is now fully backed by the top 10 richest in Thailand. Plus the managers of the 30bn (according to Forbes, 50bn by others) dollars fortune.
Even with all that, they lost 3 elections in a row.
Even with all that, the DP, like you, are so terrified of the name Thaksin, that you have no idea what damage you have done and are doing to your country that you claim you love.
How can anyone vote for such useless, incompetent, cowardly, scared, boogeyman hunting thugs?
More amazing, is that the DP actually feel they deserve to be rulers, unelected.
Thats the big joke. The sad joke.
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You seem to be fighting a lone battle here to explain the political verities to people who don’t seem to want to listen, and I wonder why that is, Khun Vichai?
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Clearly, Vichai, you are losing your mind as when it comes to “corruption” in Thailand, the last ThaiDem/Abhisit govenrment was definitely no slouch.
What with Newin given a few of the most lucrative ministries to loot as he pleased and the owner of one of the world’s largest and most lucrative hi-end brothels installed as Minister of Commerce.
And let’s not be rude and mention that Abhisit’s #2 man was none other than one of Thailand’s most long-lived corrupt politicians, none other than the Great Leader of the ongoing present “Anti-Corruption” protest movement, your reincarnated living Mafia God from Surat Thani, Khun Suttehp.
Oh, not that I want to spoil your illusions, dear Vichai, but if you look into the very founding moment, the birth, of the Thai Democrat Party, who will you see acting as Midwife?
Why none other than the world’s most successful Commercial Sex Business Entrepreneur, Lek Nana. Not only lots of donated cash from all those millions in rents he was collecting from his many properties in and around Soi Nana, but also the land for the Thai Democrat Party Headquarters Building itself.
Lek Nana was rewarded handsomely for this unparalleled generosity (much more so than those 100,000’s of young Isan females whose labor was the basis of his fortune) with many years of Cabinet & Ministerial posts, a lifelong Senior Advisor title, and even buried with “Royal Dirt” with Abhisit and most of the other Thai Democrat Party luminaries at his funeral to show this totally corrupt billionaire and piller of the Thai Democrat Party, their “respect” and reverence.
So let’s not go too deeply who in Thailand is corrupt and who is not. From top to bottom, one side to the other, in every way starting with the most revered to the least revered.
It’s called The Thai Patronage System. It’s been going on for years, for centuries, long before the “Devil named Thaksin” was even born. And it will keep going on long after his death.
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REally, it seems like a waste of”cyber ink” to talk sense with someone like Vichai. Here are some reasons why.
1. The good people as defined by Vichai – Owner of the largest whorehouse in Bangkok as one.
2. “clean” Suthep as leader.. no need to say more.
3. Never won an election Democrats as legit
Here is one of the “big” reason why Thaksin is so hated by the “good” people above.
By raising the standards of living in the rural areas – Insaan for example, The supply of “cheap” girls for their brothels becomes less and that is not good for the “good” people’s business.
I guess Yingluck would become more palatable to people like Vichai, if she bought a couple of brothels and join the club of “good” people.
BTW, the “good” people do not like the Internet either. It has given rise to “free lancers” in the sex trade, and that is a big NO NO.
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Neptunian I have to thank you for sharing your particular expertise, suggesting your more than academic interest of such worldly matters. If you said the whorehouse is the biggest and with good people and very affordable, I believe you. But I must wonder how Andrew Walker could allow this breach of unwritten rule that commercial advertisements are disallowed at New Mandala.!
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I may not always agree with you but you’ll find that the irony of your comment is lost on the New Mandela censors. (I was going to say”moderators” but i prefer to be accurate)
Go against the perceived wisdom of New Mandela and Andrew McGregor Marshall and you will be fl;amed and receive lots of thumbs downs. If you want a site that allows free speech, this is not it. I’ll post these comments and this whole thread in a different blog where they have no censorship control. They certainly won’t let this comment pass, they are too scared. Walker is known for his lack of balance and intolerance. The other co-founder I don’t know but probably equally bigoted. New Mandela is not regarded as a properly conceived blog by usual university standards.
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You’re new to New Mandala Matt-O. ‘Perceived wisdom’ is relative and New Mandala is Andrew Walker’s/Nicholas Farrely’s baby. I get flamed a lot … there will be moments NM will receive surges of posts from Vichai N, and if Andrew Walker wearies and won’t let it pass, no sweat to me. But if Andrew Walker deletes my posts too often, then I’ll just let my prose inspirations pass ….for long spells. Again no sweat to me.
I have no advice for you Matt-O. Except to suggest to remove your preconceptions of what or what would not pass an WalkerFarrelly censor. I don’t think they know either, because it is subjective and your poster may have caught them at their orneriest time (who knows?).
There was a time New Mandala had that bold warning: Only intelligent or thought-provoking or original posters will be allowed, or something to that effect. After repeated and many inane, hostile and “intellectually and ethically deficient” (according to Jaidee) Vichai N posters had been grudgingly passed at NM, Andrew Walker/Nicholas Farrelly capitulated and removed that caveat (Vichai N won again!).
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I forgot to add: Andrew MacGregor Marshall is a latecomer to New Mandala too, and to my knowledge receive no special favors from the Andrew Walker/Nicholas Farrelly duo. According to Boon that Andrew MacGregor Marshall is very very sneaky Scot, isn’t he? …
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Really, you get criticized and receive thumbs down. That’s what you’re complaining about? …
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No, Tom Hoy. I’m “complaining” because NM censors and not moderates. I’m “complaining” because posts I make under my name are taken out, the exact same post that i write under a different name is allowed in. I have no problem with free speech and accept other people’s rights to their opinions. NM and Marshall clearly does not. This won’t be posted of course. Truth hurts
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There goes the ‘It is cool to be corrupt’ mantra repeated ad nauseum by Robert, Nomi and ….
Yaps and yaps and more yaps.
PTP is all about Thaksin and nobody else … look what the PT Party did only a month ago with those 310 Thaksin-servants-pretending-to-be-legislators working overtime up to 4AM in the morning to pass the …. ahem … amnesty bill specifically designed to pardon every political corruption indictments … because it seems Thaksin wanted to cover all angles.
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‘Inconvenient Truths’ Khun Vichai – thanks.
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Vichai, please take some time to read back through the responses from the likes of Nomi and Robert and compare them to your own. While Nomi, Robert and others orchestrate their thoughts through articulate explanation of their opinions backed up with some historical reference and what appears to be a balanced frame of mind.
You repeatedly resort to words like ‘dogs, servants, goats and yap yaps’ to describe anyone and it seems everyone who does not comply with your extremely narrow, poorly researched and tunnel visioned view of the political situation in Thailand.
While your ongoing shallow and vindictive commentary is doing an an amazing job of exposing the intellectual, ethical and civil deficiencies of those who support the fascist movement in Thailand, I have to ask you Khun Vichai, if you truly believe that the majority of Thais (meaning those who clearly despise the democrats due to their actions and vote them out repeatedly) are goats, yap yaps, servants and dogs, don’t you think it’s time to move to a place where the populace are happy to behave as voiceless dogs under a small minority?
You could perhaps start a small commune on a rubber plantation in Surat Thani with Khun Suthep and co. That might sound a bit extreme when you first consider it, but seriously Khun Vichai, it’s time to start thinking out of the box, because quite frankly, it’s going to take a lot of hard work, repression, suffering and senseless deaths to force all the ‘dogs’ and ‘goats’ in Thailand to give up on the concept of democracy and one man one vote.
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Jaidee – am not sure why Nomi chose to lecture me about the Democrat Party. I could NOT vote against the Democrat Party (which I presume was Nomi’s intention) because as as usual this party, dubbed aptly by Andrew Walker as ‘The-Democrat-Party-that-could-not-win-elections’, had withdrawn (again!, is this the third time these undemocratically-minded-Democrats to scorn the elections?). Nomi merely wasted his or her bad breath with his/her long-winded story about the Democrat Party that had left a very deep impression on me. I repeat: I will never ever vote for the Democrat Party ever, cross my un-Red heart.
As for the dogs, servants, goats and yaps yaps …. I must have been listening much too much to all those Red Shirt rallies and Peau Thai Party members parliamentary oration. As you could guess, I possess such soft mind I get easily persuaded to mimic and ape what I watch on youtube, political videoclips and Red Shirts broadcasts.
btw Jaidee … any suggestions how I could improve my terrible lisp and diction?
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Vichai:
I apologize for lecturing you.
I have let my irritation with the yellow half of my family- your comments unfortunately echoed their rants verbatim – seep through, to you. That is wrong, and I am sorry.
Thank you for pointing this out. I shall be more mindful of my comments online after family gatherings.
I also hope, for all my posts here, I have never relegate another person of dissenting view, to less than human.
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Apologies are not necessary K. Nomi.
All my, as you aptly put it, rants were all directed at Thaksin … who is the root (in my opinion the Thaksin danger to Thailand could never be underestimated or Thailand could be ruined ala Philippines/Marcos)… and it perplexes me that THAT (my venom directed at Thaksin) could vex you, and the many Red symphatizers here, so. If you could explain to me why … this blind very defensive adoration of Thaksin by the Reds … that would be enlightening.
Another thing that perplexes me to an equal degree is the palpable venom being directed at the Thai monarchy by the Red Shirts leaders. I have been following New Mandala articles about the Thai monarchy from the NM’s onset, and, there’s nothing deliberately anti-Isan nor anti-poor that could be ascribed to HMK Bhumibhol nor had the Thai monarchy manifested any malice towards your (Isan) ilk (not meaning to offend nor demean nor differentiate by use of this word ilk). What exactly are the Red Shirts gripes against the Thai monarchy that would provoke such incendiary declaration from Red leaders Arisman/Nattawut urging their followers “to march with their petrol-filled plastic bottles to Sririraj Hospital (where HMK was convaslescing)” during Year2010 very violent lunatic anarchic Red protests?
And I apologize for being deliberately provocative and impatiently offensive in my many NM posters. As for my statement that I merely mimic Red leaders/Peau Thai Party parliamentarians oratory style, that’s Vichai N pure b/s.
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Vichai:
I cannot honestly answer your questions because I do not have any ‘blind adoration’ for, nor do I have obsessive hatred of, Thaksin. I simply do not know.
All I can think of is something Chris Rock said: Last I check, there is the word ‘crazy’ in the dictionary.
There are extreme people on all sides, and constant exposure to them is bad for one’s mental and emotional well-being. That is why I do not listen to people like Suthep or Arisman. Yet I do not ignore them for they are dangerous. I only wish I can ignore family as easily.
As for Monarchy: some love the romance of the institution,others dislike the innate social inequality implied. That is personal choice and preference.
I can confidently say: most people love the idea of Royalty,respect the crown, and would support the preservation of the institution of royalty- within acceptable cost.
Kings and queens in person, however, are merely people. Outside the respect conferred by the titles, they must earn their own respect.
I have only met one person who is embittered by the Thai monarchy, and that was because his child died as roads were blockaded for royal transport to non-official events.
Finally, I think the Isaan would not like being referred to as of ‘isan ilk’. And yes, I am of Bangkok ‘ilk’. Born, bred, and Thammasat grad.
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” .. As for Monarchy: some love the romance of the institution,others dislike the innate social inequality implied ..” Nomi
I appreciate it, I like it and I thank you for responding K. Nomi.
Your bite about ” … dislike the innate social inequality implied … ” I suspect may be a sentiment strongly shared by many many Thais but could not be expressed … and that breeds resentment towards the Thai monarchy, irrespective of how fair or how well-meaning the institution.
Lese majeste represses period. And for as long as this anachronistic law remains, with its arbitrary and rather harsh punishing penalties, whatever favorable legacy of reverence of the institution of monarchy resulting from the long beloved reign of HMK Bhumibhol could so quickly be undone after he is gone.
That word “ilk’ was improper, wasn’t it? I suspected as such, while typing my comments, but am not usually in the habit of editing, so added the parenthetical semi-apology of sort.
Too bad you could not elaborate on the matter of the ‘Thaksin blind adoration’, and personally it is disturbing. Even giving credit to ‘charisma’ and Thaksin’s very successful marketing of his ‘image’ to the Northeastern region, I would have thought that by this time the Isans would have wearied of, and seen through, the very dangerous Thasin artifice.
But I am heartened K. Nomi there are people like you (I have an older cousin who is a devoted Red too, but that is beside the point) WITH the Red camp. Sincerely I am.
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Khun Vichai,
Since you asked for my suggestions on how to improve your communication skills:
Firstly, I’m pleased to see you have made the important first step in seeking advice and I think you nailed one of your biggest communication problems already in your post.
It is indeed your self proclaimed habit of regurgitating shallow, totally one sided soundbites from the political stage without pause or in depth analysis which (partly) leads you to spit out silly, insulting and childish things like repeatedly referring to the majority of the Thai populace or anyone else with differing political views to your own as animals. So I suggest consulting many sources of information from all sides and try to reach a balanced (not totally one sided) frame of mind before discussing politics with others.
Looking a little deeper into your communication problem, you might consider that resorting to name calling is a common playground defense strategy used by children who are intellectually outgunned by their peers and can’t come up with an adequate response to counter the charges leveled against them. Grown ups typically move on to more advanced strategies. Therefore, I suggest educating yourself on a wider range of issues on both sides of the political equation so that you can come up with adequate responses instead of resorting to insults out of frustration.
However what is most insightful about your last post is your fascinating attempt to deflect the animal insults that arose from your self proclaimed ‘soft mind’ onto the red shirt stage!!!
That Khun Vichai is your proverbial lead parachute. You see, Blaming everything in the universe from bad weather to your inability to hold an adult standard political discussion on mr Thaksin and the red shirts only serves to discredit any valid points you might have otherwise made.
So I suggest trying to educate yourself on the good the bad and the ugly on all sides of politics in Thailand. You will soon realize that Thai politics are dirty from top to bottom, east to west, from red to yellow. Once you come to accept this, blaming your poor political debating skills and every other problem in Thailand on Thaksin and the red shirts will no longer seem plausible.
I hope that helps Kuhn Vichai because I’m the first to concede that Thaksins meddling and greed is indeed a major threat to the future of Thailand (although in my opinion certainly not the only threat and currently not the biggest).
That’s why I applaud those who point out his shortcomings and dirty dealings to the public in a well researched, intelligent and constructive manner. If that’s what you were doing Khun Vichai, I would be supporting your posts and not advising you on how to discuss politics.
Sincerely Yours,
Jaidee
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Well said Robert, and i wonder when the rest of Thai’s will wake up to the content of your comment , i can as a fallang only hope that they do soon , as it would be a sad day for the Thai people if this circus led by the former deputy get to reach that goal of imposing himself again on the majority of Thais without wining an election , and that the King advisors would keep out and stop playing politic .
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My Red Shirt friend at the local market agree that everyone is entitled to voice their own opinion. She prefer an election before reform, while I am of the opposite view. Neither of us claims to be unshakably sure of our views: He bottom line is the vote, while mine is look at one of the likely consequences i.e. a Marcos/Suharto style ‘kleptocracy’ that elections could not remove. So while my friend and I disagree, we both want what is best for the country and we sure aren’t as naive as some of the posters here seem to be – Khun Vichai excepted.
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Right, Jit, as if the Democrats, who use illegal means of spotlighting (taking over ministries, shutting down airports, their proxies assassinating Red Shirt leaders), will be the real antidote to kleptocracy with their reform plans they’ve outlined in a crystal clear fashion – rather than “reforming” the electoral process to inhibit red shirts and facilitate Democrats taking office henceforth.
Yes, I’m sure we’ll find rule of law more respected under their aegis. They’re not looking to self-enrich, they’re looking to improve the lot of all Thais nationwide. Just look at the number and size of all those big Thai flags they wave! Glad to see you’re not being completely hornswoggled by a man who can’t even spell his own last name correctly.
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If you really want “what’s good for The Country”, install me as the President (not PM). I am non-partisan and very “Democratic” (your definition of democracy anyway)
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Vichai N and Matt Owen Rees – why don’t you kids simply grow up ? Andrew MacGregor Marshall is ONLY by his own admission – is ONLY publishing a draft. Are you too daft to even realise that ?
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Today I personally met Suthep Thaugsuban.
At my street just along Wong Wien Yai at the Thon Buri side of Bangkok we waited. It was a very long wait. Since 10AM the buzz and air of anticipation breezed in with the heat. Reading my mind, the wife said “The Kamnan and the people under the sun … “ . A friend who owns a shop at BanMo phoned to warn us. “Suthep is still at Pahurad, very slow, because everyone wanted to see and be seen with the Kamnan …. lines/rows of people giving banknotes are very thick and very long.”, he said.
The cacophony of whistles, motorcycle roars and rah rah “Kamnan Su Su Su!” get louder demanding attention. Excitement, smiles and neighbors wave at each other. Pleasantly .. known Red Shirt symphatizers were there too, and they waved and we waved back. Good sports my Red Shirt neighbors – blowing whistles, their kids waving Thai flags, and their daughters wearing those silly head gears! Then two women jumped in front of the slowing motorcade (three taxis were leading) and started ramwong-dancing while lively speakers atop one truck blasted rhythm and fun; the faces smiled again and I realized we were all getting primed for the Kamnan. The smell of sweat was not pleasant but the noises somehwere else were enticing … she pulled me along to make the walk two or so kilometers ahead… my wife could not wait!
Then we say him! The Kamnan! At the corner the Kamnan began his invasion of my neighborhood . . . . .
“What came over you?” my wife protested but I could see she was very pleased. “Nearly every morning at breakfast all you do is cuss and insult Suthep, while you read your Ipad.” And my wife was starting to pant a little as we make the long trek back home. “Yet I saw you press three banknotes to the Kamnan! And those were not red banknotes either.”
My wife just had a very good time.
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Ok, for the record, here’s my prediction on Suthep and Co’s strategy over the course of the next month or so.
Anyone who follows the political games in Thailand over the medium term knows that the 2006 coup makers specifically stacked the election commission, National Anti Corruption Commission and the Judiciary with ‘good men’ to ensure they can disbar any government at will.
Suthep, the coup makers chief operations officer will remain under strict orders to spend most of January ratcheting up the chaos in Bangkok, any deaths or violence will be a huge bonus because no matter who what or how, it will all be blamed on men in black and their master in Dubai.
The core objective is to keep the general public on edge, wear them down, keep them up at night worrying so they grow tired with the endless conflict. Suthep is tasked to ensure they just want it to stop and for peace to return to the nation at any cost.
Then, days before the election and with chaos on the streets reaching an ugly and destructive climax, the coup installed ‘good men’ in the judiciary will be instructed to disbar the democratically elected government on tedious legal grounds (they used a cooking show last time, so any excuse will do really).
With the exquisitely timed political vacuum, and Sutheps perfectly orchestrated Chaos on the streets, the coup makers symphony will reach a crescendo when the military gallantly ride into Bangkok to restore peace.
The army will have ‘no choice under the circumstances but to oversee the installation of a National Reform Government’ made up primarily of, you guessed it ‘appointed good men’ and a few random faces from both sides of the political divide to act as window dressing. Democracy will be temporarily stolen from the masses yet again.
I think this prediction will prove to be accurate and the coup makers have it all planned down to the finest detail. The part that I think is impossible to plan or predict is the scope and depth of the inevitable back lash. I think the coup makers have totally underestimated that part.
So is my prediction on track?
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The prediction is pretty much what I think will happened too. However, this time round there may be a severe backlash.. the beginning of the end for the elites. French revolution comes to mind. Hope Mrs Suthep don’t say “let them eat cake” That would really be bad.
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Might as well throw my hat in the prognostication ring too.
There are some parts of Jaimee’s prediction that are unlikely IMHO. The coupmakers et al *don’t care* how on edge or worn down or scared the metropolitan public is, they’re going to do whatever they want anyway, just as they always have. No need for elaborate planning. Just one monkey leading the parade, hoping for a coup but playing for time even if he doesn’t get it.
Suthep just wants *some window of time* – whether by coup, by appointment, or by concession from the opposition – with which to “reform” the election process to make it so those “uneducated” red shirts don’t show them up so handily come the next election time. And the one after that one. And forever more.
Once that’s done, once it’s no longer a level playing field as regards the electoral process, everything can go back to the way it was.
Your avg BKK flag-donning whistle-blowing protester [to Suthep]: “Hey wait, YOU said you were going to reform CORRUPTION”
Suthep: “We got rid of the red shirts. They were the source of the corruption”
YABFDWBP: “Hold on. We also wanted strong statutes punishing Saw Waws and Saw Saws for corrupt vote-buying practices. You said..”
Suthep: “Yeah, and Americans wanted hope and change. Go back to Kansas, Dorothy-siri.”
“Oh, and btw, thanks for handing me that cash. Heheh.”
They (royalists, yellow shirts, established middle/upper class) thought the coup was enough to get rid of HIM. But then proxies kept coming back. They thought then maybe time would make him fade away. Hmm….. how to get rid of these blasted proxies? Have to take a more nuanced approach… some electoral law smoke and mirrors masquerading as change-the-public-wants-because-we-tell-them.
A disappointment of astronomical proportions awaits the analytically-thinking-challenged followers of Suthep.
The red shirts are not used to waiting but now this forced waiting is going to give them a new edge. If robbed of yet another election, they’re not going to take this lying down. And it’ll be much, much uglier than last time. All bets will be off.
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Here is what the world’s moneymen are saying … is going to happen next in Thailand.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101325953
Excerpts from the CNBC article: Do Thai protestors have the government in checkmate?
“As Thailand’s anti-government protestors mass in Bangkok for Monday’s planned mass protest, signs are emerging they are likely to get their demand for an unelected government, analysts said.”
“Elections will almost certainly fail to resolve any of Thailand’s conflicts even if they happen,” Credit Suisse said in a note. “We now see judicial intervention to appoint an unelected caretaker government as the single most likely scenario.”
“The current government has only temporary caretaker status,” Credit Suisse said. “If circumstances prevented a new parliament from being formed, a new prime minister could not be elected, and the current cabinet would fall into legal limbo. The constitution provides no guidance as to what happens if a caretaker government loses its legal status, but we suspect that the Constitutional Court would ask the King to replace it with an unelected caretaker government.”
The bank’s analysts expect judicial intervention could come anytime from this month through early March, marking the end of the 30-day post-election period for forming a government.
“We see a significant risk that another multi-year cycle of political instability has begun,” Credit Suisse said.
“Judicial intervention brought down the last pro-Thaksin government in 2008 under similar circumstances,” the bank said. “If the courts ousted the current government, we would see a high risk of pro-Thaksin Red Shirt protesters replacing the anti-Thaksin protestors on the streets,” it added.
Some still expect the election process to play out, albeit far more slowly than usual.
“From what we have been hearing, it could be as far as October of this year (before there’s a government),” Nithi Wanikpun, an analyst at Nomura, told CNBC. “That process can be dragged on until later because we have six months from February 2 to get enough members of parliament,” he said.
“The Election Commission will be obliged to run a by-election or re-election in those 28 districts (without candidates) until we get more than 95 percent (of the total seats filled),” he said. “That would be an ongoing process. The law allows more than six months.”
But he added, if after six months there still aren’t enough members of parliament, “I don’t know what would happen.”
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Jaimee spot on. I can assure you the backlash will be extremely ugly.
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I love this:
“We see a significant risk that another multi-year cycle of political instability has begun,” Credit Suisse said.
… as if we’re not still hot and heavy in the cycle of political instability directly caused by the 2006 coup.
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Applaud Suthep Thaugsuban, or, excoriate the Kamnan. But the Kamnan had succeeded thus far, with his very massive and very peaceful weeks-long protests, to make his point: the sister and brother Yingluck and Thaksin Shinawatra are deeply corrupt, the Shinawatras are deeply self-serving and conflicted in their conducts of the Thai PM office, and, the Thaksin ‘magic’ could only be downhill from now on.
Whatever happens tomorrow with the Kamnan’s ‘Shutdown Bangkok’ protests will not change the collapse of the ‘House of Thaksin’. There may be violence and blood spilled tomorrow.
The extremist Red/Black Shirt elements are certainly around. The Beast had not been tamed: A threatening message for Red followers to abduct General Prayuth’s twin daughters was posted on the Facebook page of Sudchai Boonchai, leader of the not well-known Thaksin’s Friends Group. ( http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/389211/abduction-threat-on-prayuth-daughters)
When the indiscriminate violent attacks do come, the Thai people already know who are responsible. The Thai people will already know who is ‘The Maestro’. The Maestro and his black shirted henchmen will have to answer for any limbs or lives lost, for any building or structure torched, and, and for any lethal or grievous outrages to the citizens of Bangkok.
Will Thaksin, Yingluck & gang respond with violence and spite? Could be. Thaksin & gang had certainly done it before (Year2010 Red/Black Shirts deadly rampage at Bangkok). But a second time around will just be one too many … and the repercussions/reprisals to the Shinawatras & gang is anything but predictable.
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“Will Thaksin, Yingluck & gang respond with violence and spite?”
AS far as any reader of NM knows, the only people who have really perpetrated violence has been the “Yellow Shirts” and the Democrats. Not forgetting the order for “shoot to kill” by Suthep!
Nobody is buying into your lies, so you might as well write something else. Something intelligent maybe?
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I fail to see what you can be so proud of. What exactly has Suthep and his mindless minions suceeded in accomplishing, other than adversely affecting the livelihoods and studies of millions of ordinary Thai citizens and students?
I read the so-called mainstream English media in Bangkok daily; I also watch Channel 3 news every morning, and although the Bangkok Post and The Nation are obviously very biased toward the anti-government, anti-democracy protestors, I don’t see the proof within those pages that you say is so self-evident, that “Yingluck and Thaksin Shinawatra are deeply corrupt, the Shinawatras are deeply self-serving and conflicted in their conducts of the Thai PM office.”
I hear a great deal of raised voices on the TV, but no persuasive arguments coming from the PCAD that electoral democracy should be suspended indefinitely. I think you are living in an echochamber reveberating with the same chants repeated over and over again on the Blue Sky Network News, because I also saw on Channel 3 this morning pro-government counter-demonstrations attended by thousands in over 16 provinces, including Chiang Rai, Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, Udon Thani, Kalasin, Nakhon Sawan, and much closer to home, Pathum Thani.
Furthermore, you predict “violence and blood spilled” by the “extremist Red/Black Shirt elements”, and yet to date these dark forces have been remarkably self-constrained. Two days into the Bangkok shutdown, the streets have by-and-large been without violence. Are you disappointed that your prediction has been incorrect, that the protests have not precipitated reprisals that could be used to justify a military coup?
Again and again Suthep and his followers reiterate that the government will have to be held responsible for any violence, regardless of whom it is caused by. Does this mean that we can expect an escalation in the coersion?
I have read that protesters from the militant faction of Suthep’s supporters, the Network of Students and People for Reform of Thailand (NSPRT), promised to blockade the entrance to Aerothai (Aeronautical Radio of Thailand) unless caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra steps down by Wednesday, January 15. They have also threatened to close the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)because the SET is ignoring them.
I have a friend who works as an air traffic controller at Aerothai; in fact, she is so well-respected that she is always the ATC called in to handle the flights whenever the Crown Prince flies his private jet. She would tell you that this would be much worse than simply closing the airports, because it would essentially close the skies over Thailand for every commercial air carrier passing through Thai airspace. For a country that would like to become the airline hub for Southeast Asia, I think this is the height of insanity. I can’t think of a tactic that would more damage Thailand’s international reputation.
Closing the SET would no doubt also hurt long term investor confidence in Thailand. These protesters bizarrely believe that “the stock market is the heart of the ‘Thaksin regime’, according to the Bangkok Post article.
So, in essence, what is being accomplished by the “Kamnan” other than damaging the Bangkok economy and Thailand’s international reputation?
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We keep hearing Suthep and his backers want reforms before elections take place.
Does anyone know exactly what these reforms are?
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Nobby, the protestors have no idea at all. I was talking to a Thai teacher a couple of days ago who has been marching her socks off. I inquired as to what she knew about Suthep’s background. In short not much. She knew nothing about his corrupt land dealings and his role in the fall of the Chuan government in 1995.In fact she got quite miffed that I should suggest such things.
Therein lies the problem. After 10 years teaching in leading Thai schools, I can tell you that the idea of rational independent analytical thought by and large does not exist.
Thus empty emotional rhetoric underpins most political debate. There is a chronic inability to see any point of view other than one’s own.
One only has to watch today’s video of Dr Seri being interviewed on stage by John Sparks of Channel 4 to understand the quality of debate in this country.
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Presumably these reforms are all about obliteration of any democratic elements that have existed up to now 🙁
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“Furthermore, you predict “violence and blood spilled” by the “extremist Red/Black Shirt elements”, and yet to date these dark forces have been remarkably self-constrained.”-Arthurson
Well then Arthurson, you could have a reason to be jubilant because Thaksin’s “dark forces have been remarkably, as you hoped, self-constrained” to-date. But they are there Arthurson … they are waiting … and they could strike anytime.
But it would be foolish to be too celebratory too early (and lower one’s guards). Just because Thaksin’s UDD followers are rebranding from their Red Shirts (much abhorred color at Rajprasong area and nearly every corners and centers of Bangkok) to their new pristine White colors (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/389412/udd-rebrands-urges-faithful-to-don-white) does not necessarily mean Thaksin had defanged his vicious lethally armed Black Shirts mercenaries, and/or, Thaksin had seen/embraced a new non-violent religion, does it Arthurson? The very recent murderous rampage by Red/Black Shirts at the Ramkhamhaeng U/Rajmangala stadium should be instructive to be heeded. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xE3iRMXL6_A). The ongoing long-running crisis (created by the sister/brother act of Yingluck/Thaksin) has killed at least eight people in the last two months, with scores injured. Sunday night, an unidentified gunman opened fire on protesters camped near a vast government complex, shooting one man in the neck. Overnight another gunman fired about 10 shots at the headquarters of the opposition Democrat party, shattering windows but no casualties thankfully.
Yes definitely Suthep’s running Shut-Down Bangkok protests (could last till the Kamnan or Yingluck drops, make your bets) is hurting business, but it could be worse. At Rachaprasong area, the shops are very thankful while Suthep’s crowds bring them brisk business, and, tips at the lavatories. Very thankful indeed because the Red Shirts crowds of Year2010 are still burned in their memories … “burned in their memories”, get it Arthurson?
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My ink hadn’t driedyet above and those Red(nowWhite)Shirts donning Black Shirts continued their nightly terror rounds of Bangkok again!
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/389648/violence-plagues-bangkok
” … An explosive device was thrown at the Sukhumvit Soi 31 housing compound of Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva shortly before midnight on Tuesday …”
” … Meanwhile, two people, one of them belived to be a security guard of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) , were injured in a shooting near the Hua Chang bridge in Ratchathewi district, police reported. The area is a rally site of the anti-government group …”
Now Rob Holmes should begin to get some sense of why Bangkok abhor Red(nowWhite)Shirts and their lethal Black Shirts mercenaries.
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Good grief Vichai, you should perhaps be on the stage with Suthep and his gang rather than posting on an academic blog.
Mindless empty unsupported rhetoric seems to be the rule these days. It’s no wonder Thailand is in the state that it is.
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Unsupported Rob-H? The “burned in their memories” thing about the RedShirts-now-White-Shirts? Why don’t you take a walk at Rachaprasong area and drink in the Suthep’s crowd atmosphere?
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