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Truth shouldn’t also be a casualty after Thailand’s 10-12 August bombings.
It is no surprise that Thai authorities go out of their way to rule out Malay-Muslim separatists as potential perpetrators of the string of bombs in the upper south on 10-12 August. It is after all what they always do.
It is more surprising that several experts make similar claims based on myths about the southern Thai conflict, while disregarding equally important facts about recent events in the border provinces.
Fact: southern militants launched a sustained bombing campaign timed to the referendum.
The first 10 days of August saw 50 bomb attacks in the southern border provinces. To make it clear that the violence was related to the 7 August referendum, the insurgents also sprayed anti-constitution graffiti in 18 locations.
This might have helped to sway public opinion in the south against the constitution and contributing to voters in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat rejecting the draft referendum.
Source: Deep South Incident Database.
While southern militants were busy placing an average of five bombs a day, no other anti-government groups resorted to violence during this period. This should make the southern militants key suspects if the August 10-12 bombings in the upper south is indeed related to the passing of the junta backed constitution.
Myth: Southern militants don’t target tourists.
Contrary to common claims, the southern insurgents have a history of directly targeting tourists. High profile events include the bomb at Lee Garden hotel in Hat Yai killing several foreigners and injuring more than 400, an earlier bomb at Hat Yai airport, the bomb at the central shopping mall on Koh Samui in April last year, and numerous bombs against entertainment venues frequented by Malaysian tourists in the seedy border towns Sungai Kolok, Sadao and Betong.
Myth: Southern militants don’t act outside the southern border provinces.
In addition to the Koh Samui blast last year, two bombs in 2013 was linked to southern separatist groups. First the bombing in front of Ramkhamhaeng University in Bangkok in May and then a foiled car bomb at a the Phuket Town police station at the end of the year.
While it is true that the vast majority of the violence has been concentrated to the southern border provinces, the separatist groups do not lack capacity to carry out bombings in tourist areas in the upper south.
Southern Thailand was rocked by a total of 63 bombs during 1-13 August. Focusing only on the 13 explosives targeting the upper south during the latter part of the period, while disregarding the 50 events in the southernmost border provinces, clearly plays into the hands of Thai authorities.
At this point there is no conclusive evidence pointing to a single group behind recent bombs in the upper south. Thai authorities have mobilised the full force of their propaganda machinery to convince their citizens and the international community that southern separatist groups had nothing to do with the bombs targeting foreign tourists.
The role of analysts and researchers should be to question the official line and not to repeat baseless claims about the character of the southern insurgency.
Anders Engvall is a research fellow at Stockholm School of Economics and research advisor to the Deep South Incident Database at Deep South Watch in Pattani, Thailand.
This excellent article exposes the lying scoundrels of the military/monarchist régime.
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This article shows a shocking amount of common sense under all that white noise we have been reading and hearing at other places since yesterday.
If i may add – attempts by some to blame Red Shirt militant groups for the recent spat of bombings make no sense at all either. Alone the target – damaging tourism – would disqualify Red Shirts as culprits. Many Red Shirts, be it common Red Shirts, and up to leadership level, and high ranked members of PT Party own or are employed in tourism related businesses.
Notions of a False Flag operation by the military itself makes no sense either – the military has nothing to gain from these bombs, and only to lose. It already has all the power it needs and does not need to do such a false flag operation as a pretense to extend its legal powers. Also internal military conflicts would not target tourism – it hurts all Thais, not just the government or the dominant military faction.
Furthermore – if an operation of this scale would have been done by either Red Shirts or the military, it could not have been kept secret even in the planning stages, as both sides have more than a few spies in each others camps. While both sides may have radicals, these are on both sides on the fringe and would have been stopped.
Foreign involvement in such a coordinated attack would need major local involvement – which would again mean that information would trickle through.
There are plenty reasons though why the government may need to downplay a Southern Insurgency involvement, not the least being lasting damage to the tourism industry through such an open admission that Southern Insurgency groups have the capability to operate outside their provinces.
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The analysts have clearly suspecting Uighurs and yes these attacks have been targeted at Chinese people, they are the ones who have been injured in it. earlier Thailand deported 100 Uighurs to China despite of the reports about human rights violation against Uighurs. This is a fight between Uighurs and china but Thailand is suffering!
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Not so fast. This is a thought provoking article but it is misleading to suggest that the latest attacks are basically nothing new or out of the ordinary. In fact, if southern insurgents were behind the attacks, this would mark a significant escalation and change of tactics and strategy.
The article also assumes that we know who was behind all past bombings and various related activity — and that it was all the southern insurgents. It assumes we know for sure that the Thai-language anti-referendum graffiti in the three southern provinces was the work of insurgents. But the question of who produced the graffiti has not been conclusively answered. I think there are interesting parallels with the banners in the same provinces denouncing Sirikit on her birthday in 2009, mentioned in leaked US cable 09BANGKOK2149. These banners were almost certainly not produced by insurgents.
Moreover, if the bombers wanted to send a message about the referendum, why did they wait until after the vote to launch their attacks? Planning for these attacks would have had to begin way before the result was known in the evening of August 7. So it is improbable that these attacks were a direct response to the result, and if they were intended as a more general gesture of rejection of the referendum, why did the bombers not strike during the run-up to the vote?
It is also rather misleading to claim it’s a myth that insurgents don’t target tourists. We all know that there are frequent incidents in the border sex and smuggling towns Sungai Kolok, Sadao and Betong, but as many analysts have pointed out, much of this violence is likely to be criminal rather than political/religious, arising from turf wars among rival mafia groups and military gangs. There is no evidence that Malaysian sex tourists have been specifically targeted, and in any case they are a very niche group among the tourists who visit Thailand.
The Samui bombing is an unsolved case and some southern insurgent involvement is likely. But as far as I am aware there is no proof that this was intended as an attack on the tourist industry. It’s widely known that some southern insurgents are available for hire to criminal and mafia groups. There have been numerous instances of business disputes in the Deep South being solved with violence aided by insurgents. There is no compelling evidence that the attacks on the Lee Garden Hotel and the Koh Samui mall are different.
Contrary to the impression created by Anders Egvall, a coordinated series of attacks on multiple targets outside the Deep South, specifically intended to cause significant damage to the national economy and tourist industry, would be an extremely significant, even game-changing, new development. That doesn’t mean this is not what has happened. But a “this is nothing new” argument is inaccurate and does not help us establish who was responsible for the attacks.
There is one clear precedent for the Mothers’ Day attacks — the 2006/7 New Year bombings in Bangkok. It was never conclusively established who was behind these bombings, and indeed it may have been a coalition of various interests.
The bombing of the Erawan Shrine on August 17 last year also has some parallels, and it would be worth re-examining whether this really was done by angry Uighurs acting alone without help from other groups inside Thailand.
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As usual, Andrew M is brilliant in his analysis as well as this article. Nevertheless, i think that the Hat Yai bomb and Sadao bombs were targeting sex tourists from muslim origin and hence could have indeed be done by intolerant muslims. Targeting mostly southern cities and sex industry street like in patong, Hua Hin etc points towards a salafist culprit at, let s say, 75% likeliness in my opinion. If Pattaya and bkk s patpong nana and soi cowboy are targeted in the near future, which is sadly very likely, this would then confirm this suspicions. In any case, it is called “terrorism” and this incompetent and seditious government should finally call a cat a cat and find the real culprits asap! Otherwise, we may have many more death and the tourist industry may collapse like in Bali.
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The smoke had barely cleared before New York Times and the Guardian ran pieces where experts ruled out southern militant groups as potential perpetrators based on extremely weak analysis. I wrote the text to criticize their arguments and put the southern separatists back on the list of plausible suspects. I take it from your comments that you agree with this, but mainly question if we can be sure that the separatists was behind the previous attacks mentioned in the text.
I am surprised that you have so strong doubts about the Samui and Lee Garden bombings – this is something that you usually only hear from central government spokespeople. The perpetrators behind these and other attacks mentioned in the text has been identified as discussed in depth in Rungrawee’s New Mandala text and the linked sources in my text. This is widely accepted among both authorities and analysts in the south. One exception is the events at the time of the referendum, where the groups has not been identified. But the nature of the bombs and the anti-government messages clearly point in the direction of the insurgents.
We have seen that the southern separatists have capacity to strike outside of the border provinces with a fairly short planning. Either through operatives travelling to other parts of the country, such as the Ramkhamheang bombing, or by activating cells and support networks that they maintain in the upper south and Bangkok which was the case in the Samui bombing. If they were behind this, you accurately point out that it would be a massive escalation compared to what they have done in the past.
All initial coverage of the referendum and the 11-12 August bombs overlooked the large number of bomb attacks in the border provinces the first ten days of August. This surely plays into the hand of the Thai authorities and I hope that later analysis will look at the full picture of events in August and all southern provinces.
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So far not many facts exist, except that the attacks have been very well coordinated, what can only be done by a group that has sufficient experience. Neither mafia nor redshirts etc. would have such a professional experience. Secondly, the bombs were obviusly not aimed at creating too many casualties. Thus, the national and international response can remain limited and will fade away rather soon. It appears to be more of a demonstrative act within the national political theatre. This is quite different from the Erawan bomb! So far, it is not clear, who might gain from it. One can only hope that Prayud does not copy Erdogan!
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A little off topic but I wonder if Bangkok Pundit is still blogging?
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Hasn’t since the beginning of the Junta .
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hrk – you are completely wrong about the bombs not being created to cause maximum casualties. They certainly were. The Thai Police have said this, as have other reports. Some bombs malfunctioned – as bombs often do. The casualties could have been much higher. And were CLEARLY intended to be so.
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The perpetrators should be caught and punished. Also, the motive behind these attacks be know.
Lot of theories are doing round. From Red shirt militants to southern separatist…
In my view, this could have be done by muslims from China and particularly Uighur Muslims. Timing of attacks leads to this fact. The blasts have been done exactly after an year of boombings in Erwana shrine, which killed around 20 people. Further, the balsts were more send a message than to kill people.
Also, the fact that Uighur muslims are being deported back to China, have lead to resentment in Uighur muslims. They dont have nowhere to go now. They dont want to go to China due to the inhumane treatment is meted out to them by Chinese Government. They are being treated as slaves in China. China doesnt let their voices of outcry be heard to the world. These blasts are their way of telling the world of their annihilation at the hands of Chinese govt. Uighur muslims from China are highlighting this fact by way of blasts.
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I may also like to throw these few other facts to prove my point:
1) New America Foundation’s report released on 20th July, 2016 says tough Chinese religious restrictions have driven more than 100 Uighurs to join Daesh or ISIL;
2) The method of the 2015 Erawan shrine attack, which used a bomb left a
backpack and was detonated by a mobile phone, was similar to that of a
recent bombing which saw the bombs left in plants lining the main
street; Also, Thai Police has recently accepted that 15 of these Erawan blast perpetrators still remain free.
3) In February 2016, US agencies warned Thailand of an impendingISIL attack; ISIL’s Caliphate (map) includes Thailand’s Southern Provinces;
4) Recently, ex-Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyadh had claimed that a
hitherto unheard of ISIL-affiliated group “Black Swan” has established a
cell in Southern Thailand;
5) Meanwhile, Thai embrace of China is growing. In recent Shangri La Dialogue, Thai PM rooted for a larger Chinese role in the region. Chinese-Thai security and military cooperation is growing by leaps and bounds; And Thailand still continues to persecute the Uighurs at behest of Chinese. There are more than 70 Uighurs refugees in several detention centere across Thailand, whose ‘ crime was that they were trying to flee severe Han-Chinese representation in Xinjiang. While the poor Uighurs only want to use Thailand as a transit point to escape Chinese torture, they are being indicted and handed over to China by Thai Junta. In May-June this year, 19 such Uighurs prisioners in Thai jails began hunger strike to draw attention of world towards their inhuman treatment;
Need we have anymore theories.
It is clear that Uighur Muslims from China are behind these attacks
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I thought illegal burmese migrants (may be Rohingya) were the culprits.
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[…] has been concentrated in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat and rarely targets foreigners…”. This is simply untrue but fits the […]
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