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Peter Hartcher, the International Editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, has an article in today’s paper which compares current political trajectories in Burma and North Korea. It begins by stating that:
Dictators, said Winston Churchill, ”ride to and fro upon tigers which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry.” Two medium-size nations of east Asia, both military dictatorships, both allies of China, and both traditionally Buddhist societies, are taking diametrically opposite courses in dealing with their hungry tigers.
One is tightening its grip around the tiger’s neck; the other is challenging Churchill’s dictum by attempting a delicate dismount.
Executing a dismount from a hungry tiger? It is a splendid image of what can become an impossibly fraught maneuver.
Later in the article Hartcher cites some of my comments on Burmese politics to explain how and why Burma is changing. One of my assessments is that Burma’s military leadership “came to the realisation that they could engineer a new compact among the country’s political elites, inviting Aung San Suu Kyi and her forces into some place of power while keeping overall control for themselves.” From everything I read, it appears the North Korean leadership is still a long way from any realisation of that sort.
And for those in the mood for a trip down memory lane, the above image of North Korea-Burma cosiness is sourced from here.
It was the Godfather of the current outfit Ne Win who said seizing power and holding on to it was like pulling the tiger’s tail, you just didn’t dare let go, although he did go through the motions of letting go as the mismanagement crisis deepened, but only to renew his grip.
Here’s another instance where you just couldn’t repeat the same old trick in the 21st C., so needs must. They changed tack after two more decades and a half century of military dictatorship, as their crisis deepened, despite Russia, Japan, both Koreas as well as all the neighbours having been on side and doing a roaring trade with them.
It’s definitely an improvement over not just N Korea but their own mentor China. It’s about having your cake and eating it. It’s the Burmese Way to Glasnost & Perestroika. ‘Pluralism’ must be delivered.
There is everything to play for in and out of parliament. A reforming govt is at its most vulnerable as Alexis de Tocqueville once famously said. As for the opposition the Burmese expression goes, “a bold stroke seizes the throne, temerity misses the opportunity”.
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