Thanks Andrew! Personally I don’t think that ultra-royalists will sacrifice the legitimacy of the next monarch by sidelining the rightful heir to the throne, Vajiralongkorn. Will be interesting to see how all of this pans out over the coming months and years.
I think that’s quite cynical WLH. I don’t see any evidence that this legislation is aimed at appealing to foreign tourists. It was quite a low key announcement and the LGBT march wasn’t put on by the government.
Vietnam has always been a fairly tolerant place for gay tourists to visit, and anyway marriage is a domestic/civil affair that doesn’t really have anything to do with overseas tourists.
It might be a move to improve the country’s international image but I don’t think it has anything to do with tourism directly.
I always wonder how much a Thai Rath one-page anniversary paean to a Thai Royal costs?
There was a time, maybe six or seven years ago, when on such occassions a Thai Rath would be really really really heavy with such paean-pages. This year, a one-fourth page on the Prince’s birthday was all I saw at Thai Rath.
“Now those days are gone …”
Could not be the Thai economy tanking,
because those Thai billionaires keep on multi-’billioning’ (remember Vichai N invented this word!)
I for one am looking forward to the accession of Rama 10, as it will force the overdue correction in the minds of many Thais regarding the mythology they have build around the monarchy.
The new king will do just fine, as the actual job requirements amount to little more than 1) standing straight in ceremonial dress and 2) letting powerful people use you to consolidate more power. As Rama 9 served the needs of Sarit, hanom, Suchinda, the CIA, et al, Rama 10 may prove to be useful to Thaksin or General X. Also, he stands up straight better than anyone I’ve seen.
And let’s not forget that the greatest Chakri kings (4&9) were the ones crowned amidst the lowest expectations. Leave some room to be surprised.
Becoming gay-friendly is also an easy way to boost tourism income. Thailand has had a lucrative near-monopoly on gay-themed tourism in Asia for decades, and they didn’t even need to legalize same-sex marriage to do so.
There are great similarities between the Thai Royals and the British royals. One big difference is that the British government will have to publish details of interference in politics by the unelected queen and prince Charles. I await these revelations with interest and will note the grovelling of prime ministers in their dealings with these unelected heads of state.
An interesting piece of analysis and thinking, however it seems to carefully avoid the subject of monarchist popularity in general in favour of considering the personal popularity of the Queen and the Crown Prince.
Having spent a number of years living and working in the heart of red-shirt territory, I can say with a feeling of certainty that the popularity of the King himself has waned to the point where what is left is based on sentimentality and nostalgia alone. Nobody is in any doubt that the King approved the coup that threw out the reds hero Thaksin, and the people in Isaan are sufficiently sophisticated to understand that this was a crude political exercise which marginalised and treated their democratic voice with contempt. Prem miscalculated badly with this, he failed to see which way the wind was blowing, probably because of his own prejudices and ambition.
The Queen is desperately unpopular in Isaan, as is the Crown Prince, this is not just an absence of affection, it is an active resentment bordering on disdain and contempt for both. These are not global feelings it ‘s true, but they are shared by perhaps two thirds (my estimate) of the Isaan population. There is little sympathy for the Queen after her mild stroke (the ‘shortage of blood to a part of her brain’ was very likely a mild stroke in her cerebellum caused by a blood clot there or somewhere upstream) and there is no affection whatever for the Crown Prince.
We should remember that last year it was reported that the King is chronically depressed about the state of the monarchy in Thailand towards the end of his reign, and note that this depression appears to be well-founded. His own death is likely to cause a huge crisis of identity among Thais, and the likely imminent return of Thaksin is likely to Thailand will likely be a rallying call to ‘the faithful’. It is not difficult to imagine such a scenario rapidly spiraling out of control into a civil war, indeed this has been predicted by people on both sides of the red/yellow divide.
Thailand is in decline, perhaps a permanent decline. Economic performance has been good but Thailand rightly dreads the coming off the ASEAN community. Inefficiency, incompetence and corruption are endemic and will likey take at least 2 generations to get rid of. Complacency about and a resistance to developing education over decades has left Thailand with a massive skills shortage which is going to be a crucial factor in its continuing decline. Essentially, I believe that Thailand is as good as finished as perhaps the prominent mainland state in SE Asia. Again personally I think its drift backwards to the stone age has been in full swing since the 1997 crash, which is generally regarded in SE Asia as having been caused and perpetuated by Thai mismanagement and dishonesty.
These are interesting times for Thailand, I do not see a reversal of fortunes any time soon, but I do see a collapse of Thai society and culture in the tea-leaves, which will be an interesting process to observe, both at societal and individual levels. We should not forget that the propaganda machine has promulgated the King, not as a person with personal attributes and achievements but as a totem with which the Thai people have been encouraged to identify as a population. When that totem suddenly disappears, there needs to be a credible alternative totem available – which there isn’t, or a strategy to address the massive psychological consequences of an Thai identity crisis – which there also isn’t.
> “Border checkpoints are located on the opposite sides of the mighty Thailand-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (opened in 1997), all fenced off with chicken wire.”
A superb article, many thanks. My own view is that the succession of the prince is rather less likely than the author suggests, although the serious deterioration in Queen Sirikit’s health has considerably boosted Vajiralongkorn’s prospects. Even with Sirikit’s influence dramatically waning, one should not underestimate the determination of the ultra-royalists to prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming Rama X.
Nothing wrong in using the tool I guess so long as it’s used to advertise more information here. Depends how and for what purpose you harness it like most inventions and innovations.
Annie – you clearly know why your previous comment was not approved, that’s why you moderated your language in this one. On the “you are posting too quickly” error message. This is unrelated to the new template. From a quick bit of googling I have done it seems to be a not uncommon problem, perhaps an error in the spam filter. I will see if our IT people can get to the bottom of it.
Indeed. I think it was Winston Churchill who said ‘Democracy is the worst system we have. Except for all the others.” or some such thing. No personally I think WC was an emotionally damaged opportunist whom WW2 trabsformed into a national hero, but that doesn’t mean he could’nt come up with a turn pf phrase from time to time, especially when confronting Lady Astor.
And ‘all the others’ includes what the nincompoop Thais like to call ‘Thai-style democracy’ which, of course, means no democracy at all. It has about as much credibility as ‘sufficiency theory’, which is none at all among people with an IQ higher than a carrot.
Of course you are right. In my view, the fact that Thaksin was elected is the only thing that matters. Or it would be if Thailand was a democracy.
ps. My considered opinion is that the new forum software is a step backwards. I get ‘you are posting too quickly slow down’ every single time. Still, at least the moderation policies don’t delete my posts because they are… well, my posts. Progress of a kind I suppose.
No, actually that’s not right. This is the second attempt. Moderation policies seem as arbitrary and person-dependent as ever.
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Not so Happy Birthdays
Thanks Andrew! Personally I don’t think that ultra-royalists will sacrifice the legitimacy of the next monarch by sidelining the rightful heir to the throne, Vajiralongkorn. Will be interesting to see how all of this pans out over the coming months and years.
Not so Happy Birthdays
An apparent sign of the transition: the King’s tribute in the cinema is now prefaced with “Please stand and show your respect for the King’s anthem.
I don’t recall that last word being part of it before.
Vietnam’s gay pride
I think that’s quite cynical WLH. I don’t see any evidence that this legislation is aimed at appealing to foreign tourists. It was quite a low key announcement and the LGBT march wasn’t put on by the government.
Vietnam has always been a fairly tolerant place for gay tourists to visit, and anyway marriage is a domestic/civil affair that doesn’t really have anything to do with overseas tourists.
It might be a move to improve the country’s international image but I don’t think it has anything to do with tourism directly.
Not so Happy Birthdays
I always wonder how much a Thai Rath one-page anniversary paean to a Thai Royal costs?
There was a time, maybe six or seven years ago, when on such occassions a Thai Rath would be really really really heavy with such paean-pages. This year, a one-fourth page on the Prince’s birthday was all I saw at Thai Rath.
“Now those days are gone …”
Could not be the Thai economy tanking,
because those Thai billionaires keep on multi-’billioning’ (remember Vichai N invented this word!)
Not so Happy Birthdays
Surely people will warm up to the future monarch, especially because the man will be able to sign off on all orders with endearingly. Rama x
Not so Happy Birthdays
The military-media power elite still wont allow criticism of the Royal Household and are prepared to shoot their own citizens to keep the status quo.
Anyone who thinks the crown prince and the military have no plans to consolidate their grip on power is not thinking things through properly.
Thaksin is waiting in the wings.
Regrettably for Thailand all the major players in act three are largely venal.
Not so Happy Birthdays
I for one am looking forward to the accession of Rama 10, as it will force the overdue correction in the minds of many Thais regarding the mythology they have build around the monarchy.
The new king will do just fine, as the actual job requirements amount to little more than 1) standing straight in ceremonial dress and 2) letting powerful people use you to consolidate more power. As Rama 9 served the needs of Sarit, hanom, Suchinda, the CIA, et al, Rama 10 may prove to be useful to Thaksin or General X. Also, he stands up straight better than anyone I’ve seen.
And let’s not forget that the greatest Chakri kings (4&9) were the ones crowned amidst the lowest expectations. Leave some room to be surprised.
New Mandala site upgrade
Second the motion. Liked them one and all.
Not so Happy Birthdays
Excellent article. Good to – at last – see some positive comments re. the CP.
Vietnam’s gay pride
Becoming gay-friendly is also an easy way to boost tourism income. Thailand has had a lucrative near-monopoly on gay-themed tourism in Asia for decades, and they didn’t even need to legalize same-sex marriage to do so.
The Company in Dawei
Great contribution SLA. Many thanks!
Not so Happy Birthdays
There are great similarities between the Thai Royals and the British royals. One big difference is that the British government will have to publish details of interference in politics by the unelected queen and prince Charles. I await these revelations with interest and will note the grovelling of prime ministers in their dealings with these unelected heads of state.
Not so Happy Birthdays
An interesting piece of analysis and thinking, however it seems to carefully avoid the subject of monarchist popularity in general in favour of considering the personal popularity of the Queen and the Crown Prince.
Having spent a number of years living and working in the heart of red-shirt territory, I can say with a feeling of certainty that the popularity of the King himself has waned to the point where what is left is based on sentimentality and nostalgia alone. Nobody is in any doubt that the King approved the coup that threw out the reds hero Thaksin, and the people in Isaan are sufficiently sophisticated to understand that this was a crude political exercise which marginalised and treated their democratic voice with contempt. Prem miscalculated badly with this, he failed to see which way the wind was blowing, probably because of his own prejudices and ambition.
The Queen is desperately unpopular in Isaan, as is the Crown Prince, this is not just an absence of affection, it is an active resentment bordering on disdain and contempt for both. These are not global feelings it ‘s true, but they are shared by perhaps two thirds (my estimate) of the Isaan population. There is little sympathy for the Queen after her mild stroke (the ‘shortage of blood to a part of her brain’ was very likely a mild stroke in her cerebellum caused by a blood clot there or somewhere upstream) and there is no affection whatever for the Crown Prince.
We should remember that last year it was reported that the King is chronically depressed about the state of the monarchy in Thailand towards the end of his reign, and note that this depression appears to be well-founded. His own death is likely to cause a huge crisis of identity among Thais, and the likely imminent return of Thaksin is likely to Thailand will likely be a rallying call to ‘the faithful’. It is not difficult to imagine such a scenario rapidly spiraling out of control into a civil war, indeed this has been predicted by people on both sides of the red/yellow divide.
Thailand is in decline, perhaps a permanent decline. Economic performance has been good but Thailand rightly dreads the coming off the ASEAN community. Inefficiency, incompetence and corruption are endemic and will likey take at least 2 generations to get rid of. Complacency about and a resistance to developing education over decades has left Thailand with a massive skills shortage which is going to be a crucial factor in its continuing decline. Essentially, I believe that Thailand is as good as finished as perhaps the prominent mainland state in SE Asia. Again personally I think its drift backwards to the stone age has been in full swing since the 1997 crash, which is generally regarded in SE Asia as having been caused and perpetuated by Thai mismanagement and dishonesty.
These are interesting times for Thailand, I do not see a reversal of fortunes any time soon, but I do see a collapse of Thai society and culture in the tea-leaves, which will be an interesting process to observe, both at societal and individual levels. We should not forget that the propaganda machine has promulgated the King, not as a person with personal attributes and achievements but as a totem with which the Thai people have been encouraged to identify as a population. When that totem suddenly disappears, there needs to be a credible alternative totem available – which there isn’t, or a strategy to address the massive psychological consequences of an Thai identity crisis – which there also isn’t.
Glimpses of the Thailand-Myanmar border
> “Border checkpoints are located on the opposite sides of the mighty Thailand-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (opened in 1997), all fenced off with chicken wire.”
It’s not chicken wire, is it?
Not so Happy Birthdays
A superb article, many thanks. My own view is that the succession of the prince is rather less likely than the author suggests, although the serious deterioration in Queen Sirikit’s health has considerably boosted Vajiralongkorn’s prospects. Even with Sirikit’s influence dramatically waning, one should not underestimate the determination of the ultra-royalists to prevent Vajiralongkorn becoming Rama X.
New Mandala site upgrade
Any chance of an ‘interviews’ section? Some of the most interesting things I have read on this site are Nich’s wonderful interviews with scholars 🙂
New Mandala site upgrade
Nothing wrong in using the tool I guess so long as it’s used to advertise more information here. Depends how and for what purpose you harness it like most inventions and innovations.
International community take note – regime change looms in Malaysia
Thanks VSS for the tip on Nile Bowie association with dr Mahathir . That explains his infatuation with the doctor .
Thaksin and the palace
Annie – you clearly know why your previous comment was not approved, that’s why you moderated your language in this one. On the “you are posting too quickly” error message. This is unrelated to the new template. From a quick bit of googling I have done it seems to be a not uncommon problem, perhaps an error in the spam filter. I will see if our IT people can get to the bottom of it.
Thaksin and the palace
Indeed. I think it was Winston Churchill who said ‘Democracy is the worst system we have. Except for all the others.” or some such thing. No personally I think WC was an emotionally damaged opportunist whom WW2 trabsformed into a national hero, but that doesn’t mean he could’nt come up with a turn pf phrase from time to time, especially when confronting Lady Astor.
And ‘all the others’ includes what the nincompoop Thais like to call ‘Thai-style democracy’ which, of course, means no democracy at all. It has about as much credibility as ‘sufficiency theory’, which is none at all among people with an IQ higher than a carrot.
Of course you are right. In my view, the fact that Thaksin was elected is the only thing that matters. Or it would be if Thailand was a democracy.
ps. My considered opinion is that the new forum software is a step backwards. I get ‘you are posting too quickly slow down’ every single time. Still, at least the moderation policies don’t delete my posts because they are… well, my posts. Progress of a kind I suppose.
No, actually that’s not right. This is the second attempt. Moderation policies seem as arbitrary and person-dependent as ever.