I arrived at about 15.00, not too long after incident of the voice TV car, and left not long after Sondhi L.’s speech, maybe just after 20.00. During this time i did what i always do – i move around the area, and talk with people i know. Therefore you won’t see me stationary at the stage for long.
As to the numbers, we could argue forever. I have my own estimates, and compare them with the estimates of special branch, military intel and police (who all have a vast experience in estimating crowds – it is their profession, after all), and draw a medium.
When you mentioned the meetings at Victory monument – these were not full Siam Samakkhi meetings, they were meetings of Dr. Tul’s group, which is now one of the groups allied with Siam Samakkhi. Full Siam Samakkhi meetings are generally larger, as they include many groups, such as the different facebook groups such as Boworn Yasinthorn’s group, many people that also attend the PAD meetings, now also some of the Santi Asoke sect, and many of the former “Hiso-PAD”.
The 2011 PAD/Thai Patriot Network rally was hardly reported on by most media. The majority of journalists only came to the press conferences, and left straight away to the press room in government house. I came regularly though. The only independent media that had a cameraman at the stage all the time was TNN. I also went to Aranyaprathet when the Thai Patriot network protested there (as the only foreign journalist), and was also part of the group of journalists that were allowed by the military to accompany their reps to the border.
I didn’t have the time though to write a report on all that for New Mandala.
As to the impression of the numbers attending the Makkhawan rally site, people gathered at the small space in front of the stage, the area immediately behind it, until the Thai Patriot Network’s area began were mostly empty tents giving a resemblance of a large crowd.
There were a few occasions when protesters came out, such as at the swearing of the oath at Royal Plaza on February 11, 2011, and the combined crowd was incredibly small compared to the 2006 and the 2008 protests.
As to vested interests having a tendency to use different groups for their own means, i somewhat agree with you there. The PAD was definitely used by the establishment when the establishment saw the potential of the PAD in early 2006. And the PAD also became uncomfortable for their backers, first after the coup, leading to another collaboration in 2008, another fall out in 2009, a somewhat unsuccessful attempted collaboration during the 2010 Red Shirt rallies by setting up together the Pink Shirts/Multicolored Group/Silom People, and leading to a final fall out in the 2011 protests.
Many say that there is always the option that the PAD and their former backers could get back together again, but i personally have serious doubts about that, especially as long as Sondhi is still a main leader.
Siam Samakkhi was founded by members of the coup group directly, quite different from both the PAD and the Red Shirts, which grew somewhat more organically. But where we differ in our assessment is that i believe that at present the PAD is now at a dead end, and devolved into a fringe group without mass base and has lost almost all allies.
Siam Samakkhi may not have a mass base either, but has allied networks that can provide them with something that will resemble a mass base (through Democrat and military networks).
Mass based street politics in Thailand now have to a large part been taken over by the Red Shirts, who morphed over the years from a disorganized rabble in 2006/2007 into the most sophisticated social mass movement Thailand has ever seen – each crackdown against them resulted in structural changes and improvements leading to an incredibly multi-layered organization.
Just a short explanation and clarification on my and your comments about PAD’s meeting at the concert hall in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012.
Neither you nor I have to fully relay on others figures – we can go counting ourselves to find out. So I did. Three times that day. Also people who leave early were there once. Also those who came later. They also have to be counted. I hope you wouldn’t like to hear that you were not there because you were not there at a specific time when somebody looked for you? Either you were there some time, or you were not. That’s what counts.
The figures of supporters I reported (in Garuda #6) attending the PAD party in the concert hall and surroundings in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012, are most likely correct as they cover morning, day and evening. Not just when Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai talked for some 2 hours. It covers 10-11 hours, and that is much longer. Some supporters just came for the registration and voting that took place about how the PAD should proceed with the movement. Many of the voters just came for that and left (almost) immediately thereafter. Most of the registration and voting took place from 9 a.m. to around 1 p.m. One could still vote later, though many did not do so thereafter. If you would have been there that early, you would also have seen what not just I saw, we all saw, we who were there that early.
During that day it was rather easy to see farangs moving around inside the concert hall as well as in the surroundings. The most obvious reason is that you all stick out by being white skinned. Simple as that. You were not that many. During the event I just saw 3 Caucasian journalists and photographers, and 1 what seemed to be just a white supporter of the PAD. That was all. One of the journalists and photographers was there for about 1 hour in the mid day, one two hours later for about 1/2 hour. And, what could it be for you Nick? Best for 3 hours. I hope I’m not wrong with you. So how many supporters of PAD were you able to see during your approximately 3 hours there? Were you able to see and count all those who were there before you came?
You’re a great journalist, Nick. I read with great interest your books and articles. You’ve got the picture(s) to a great extent correct, though not always.
But,… you were not there that early and long to be able to judge how many PAD supporters were there prior to your arrival. As I understand, we are not equipped with such extraordinary senses of being able to judge things we cannot see or know if we are not there (if we are not The Lord Buddha, that is), are we? Can we agree on that, Nick?!
PAD plays by the tune ‘wait and see’.
If you look at the picture(s) from Bangkok Post published 26/01/2011 (from the same time also different published pictures from other newspapers showed the same), you’ll clearly see that the PAD party reaches from Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to Royal Plaza covering all traffic lanes blocking the whole avenue. It also reached from Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue down to Government House, where Chamlong Srimuang’s Santi Asoke (Buddhist sect) had their camp and rally. That is well over 20, 000 people, I count low here (PAD would say 50, 000 or more). It could actually have been well over 25,000 – 30,000. It was like this for some time (if I remember correct for 10-14 days), then it went down. It goes up and down. This happens during all PAD rallies, nothing unusual with that. Still many thousands of people there.
First a clarification. What everyone clearly could witness happening at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge from January to July 2011 was not at all/really a PAD rally organized by the PAD. From Khun Limthongkul I’ve got the following explanation to why PAD came out. PAD didn’t first answer to the request of Chamlong Srimuang as he had wanted it to do. The collective view to the request from the other 4 leaders was that this was not for the PAD to get involved into. After a considerable time trying to avoid getting into this conflict/protest, the other 4 leaders finally felt they couldn’t deny Chamlong the support. Actually they ‘somehow’ were forced to help their friend.
It’s correct Nick what you write: “on the few days they feared police dispersal”. Yes, that’s why they came out that many already the first day(s). Most of the supporters leaving after some time were people from the north and northeast of Thailand. Yes, the PAD has quite a lot of their supporters coming from there, even poor farmers. When supporters felt the area was enough safeguarded by that many already, several thousand went home for work or whatever reasons they had. This happens all the time. When it is or will be serious/hot enough they (will) come/came back in big quantities.
It is like this. PAD supporters, especially during 2011, came in the afternoons or evenings, because they were usually from Bangkok area and worked during daytime. They stayed until the leaders had talked or to some time thereafter, then they went home. Another reason why many were not there in daytime was that there was no special program then and it was very hot sitting there and you get very, very tired. Try it, and you’ll see.
The month before 25 of May the number of supporters was many days/nights down to 500-700 people – fully correct. When PAD celebrated three years since the restart of their street protests on May 25, 2008 at Democracy Monument on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the figures were up with some thousands again, for some days. Then again it went down until it started to go up some three weeks before the party was ended 1 of July. It went rapidly up to several thousand up to 10, 000 or more the final day.
During May and June I was frequently approached by various people in Bangkok, even journalists, who told me that the PAD rally was closed down (quite often mentioned as closed down by the police), the tents and stages gone and traffic was as usual on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. Oh, wishful thinking. They were wrong, of course. Sometimes I had to call some friends at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to find out or to have the approaching persons to talk in my mobile with somebody at the spot. They were still there, of course.
The Thai Patriot Network is an offshoot of the PAD movement, not necessarily agreeing on everything PAD does. Many of them (especially the more prominent and sometimes older ones) have lived in US most of their lives or at least long enough to, to some extent, have ‘lost’ their contact to Thailand (the country they once left for finding something better), understanding what is going on in their ‘home’ country or even dreaming of a Thailand that once was Siam and, in their eyes, a much greater nation than Thailand is today. They are some kind of expats, and same as many farangs here are not fully acclimatized to ‘their new home country’, still after all these years making complaints of the land they originate from.
I sometimes talk with their leaders/’spokespersons’ about their views of PAD and Thailand. Unfortunately, they, in my view, seem to have less knowledge than the ordinary PAD supporter has about Thailand and what is going on. It is quite often not that easy to discuss with them if you go deeper into the subjects. If PAD many times is referred to as being nationalistic, then the Thai Patriot Network really can live up to it all. Could be one reason why they feel “their (PAD’s) failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously”. They may be disappointed that PAD has not been able to change that much as they would have wanted. Things take time.
To your comparison: “during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.”
As I were there during the October 7, 2008 clashes – the days before, that day and the days and nights after, I think I have a ‘rather’ clear picture, as clear as one can have over that extended area. Of course, neither you nor I could cover such a big area.
The support masses of PAD were at that time still quite huge. I would say they exceeded the 10, 000 you write. They were more likely in the region of 30, 000. It is first by the end of October they go down. Especially during November and the weeks before the seizure of Don Mueang Airport and Suvarnabhumi International Airport on the evening 25 of November. The weeks before the seizure of the airports the occupied Government House area was ‘almost deserted’, sometimes looking like ‘ghost blocks’. This should not be interpreted as ‘all had left’.
The numbers had by then declined/dwindled considerably compared with before. After that many days in protests, it was not easy for the PAD movement and leaders to keep that many supporters staying day after day, week out and in, month after month not having accomplished that much yet. Many were so exhausted by now and ‘Red-Shirt’ Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol (“Sae Daeng”) moved around in the area, on roofs, creating death and terror to some PAD supporters inside and outside the garden of the Government House.
Suddenly, the movement got fresh air and woke up en masse to occupy the airports with great success. That can happen again. The PAD movement can once again wake up en masse. They have still not lost their force. Don’t count them out yet. That would be a mistake.
I am sure PAD can, as you mention about Siam Samakkhi and their network, “mobilize far greater numbers should the need arise”.
You write: “You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.”
You and it may be right. But, as loyalty in Thailand changes rather quick if not rapidly (you would know by now), we wouldn’t know very well what is valid and real tomorrow. Many of the PAD supporters were Thaksin Shinawatra supporters before they switched to PAD. Correct!?
Asking, yesterday, one of the original PAD organizers, still within the movement, still organizing, he told me that “no one really knows”. No one really knows.
Unfortunately, I was not able to come to the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the Lumpini Park concert hall on 2 of March 2012, as I had other engagements to attend that day. And, my main work is absolutely not checking and attending every party or rally there is. Very few can make a living on doing that. I fully trust you if you say that there was 1, 500 – 2, 000 people in attendance. I wasn’t there and can not and should not contradict what you’re telling.
I said: “I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.”
We all take photos when going to political parties. And, so do I. I don’t need to back up that claim with photos. A normal rally of Siam Samakkhi, let’s say at Victory Monument, just attracts about 100 – 150 supporters. They have been there several of times. So have I. And, with camera. Usually with the same result – not too many came. You couldn’t claim it was crowded, not really even a crowd. Many of them are my long-time friends.
What you say about the Democrat Party’s support of the Siam Samakkhi and its events is true, of course. So is the support from the group of 40 senators, some academics and parts of the military.
What if their support to Siam Samakkhi in the end is/will be/leads to/turns out to be a repetition of the support once given the PAD by the same above mentioned? The Siam Samakkhi being fooled by someone (the same groups) they once trusted being able to help them change Thailand to a better place for all Thais, by turning their back to them later on! See what happened after the PAD helped them out in 2006 and 2008.
I don’t know if you can say that the Democrat Party and military networks now have stopped supporting the PAD. What I know is that they turned their back on them. That is quite a different way of expressing what really happened after the PAD had ‘helped’ the above mentioned. In 2011, or rather long before that, the PAD had had enough of both the Democrat Party and military (networks). The PAD felt they were not being at all ‘rewarded’ for ‘doing the work for them’. Rewarded should be interpreted as not even trying, in PAD view, making a better, not corrupt Thailand a.o.t. PAD were not themselves interested in own political power, just that the parties in the Parliament should do what they, by the people/voters, were expected to do. Nothing else.
Military support goes to Siam Samakkhi, the Red Shirts/United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), and still to the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and possibly others too. They are all supported by the military directly or persons representing the military.
So it also is with support and money coming from the big, medium and small companies in Thailand. It goes to all of the above mentioned movements as well as to all political parties, the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party, as well as the rest. Most often a company is supporting and giving to/investing money in more than one party at the same time. This as no one fully knows who will win, lead, participate in or control a next government.
Who is supporting who and who is screwing/fucking who for the moment? If we (just) knew that… Then there may be a different and better Thailand for all to live in, don’t you agree?
For some time, during last year’s rally, PAD was economically supported by PTT (a Thai state-owned SET-listed oil and gas company, formerly known as the Petroleum Authority of Thailand), before PAD sued them and lost their money support.
Strange that no one of you mentioned what Pipob Thongchai said, that the PAD’s cautious approach could lead to real change as the group was serious about building up networks and educating people about political regimes.
If the PAD had started doing this already in 2008, it would have been better, than starting now, when the Red Shirts already are in the swing with their education concept of democracy.
Better late than sorry, it seems.
Luecha Na Malai #8
Correct, you’ve got it right. “PAD people are no exception” of being in good company of politicians being corrupt. Some of them are also practicing the double standards’ trait. Are you really surprised?
Dan D #8
“@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?”
I don’t know what is official within the PAD or not. PAD doesn’t really work that way, always. In many ways PAD is well organized, but in this case various information comes from inside, and from, of course, from different people. Remember, we are in Thailand. Does it surprise you?
Sam Deedes #11
You know how Sondhi Limthongkul is. Of course, don’t forget he is, to some extent, dangerous with his “very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings”. Just don’t get too hooked on it. He does have more relevant things to say.
What a Great Country Thailand is!
“Garuda” has attended the PAD rallies for more than 200 days, the UDD rallies for more than 40 days, the Siam Samakkhi so many times and other parties and colours frequently from 2005 until now. He will continuously do so.
The term “de facto” colonialism used in the article is very accurate!
But let us have a frank and honest discussion. We should not confine our discussion within our intellectual comfort zone by omitting a whole chunk of historical facts in skipping one important historical detail.
“Malaysia 1963 exists” because of the British sponsored Malayan annexation of Sabah and Sarawak as new colonies.
The majority of Scholars tend to limit their learned discussions on Malaysia to the events surrounding the Malayan Federation 1957 but confusingly use the term “Malaysia” which only existed from 1963 in their discussions.
This is grave intellectual dishonesty. Unless we are ignorant of the facts let us re-visit history.
The term “Malaysia” was a British neo-colonial concept which was intended to create “de facto” colonialism. This was just a re-branding of the 1942 Malayan Union plan by the British Foreign Office to consolidate the administration of the Borneo/Kalimantan colonies by merging them with Malaya and Singapore under their grand Malaysia Plan.
When the proposal was announced by the Malayan Prime Minister (self-proclaimed “Bapa Malaysia”) at the beginnnithis “plan” was immediately condemned and opposed by the North Borneon/Kalimantan independence movement as a neo-colonial scheme to prolonged colonial rule. The term used in the article “de facto” colonialism is very accurate!
The local opposition led to the outbreak of the anti-Malaysia Uprising in Brunei on December 8 1962 and opened up the people’s guerrilla national liberation war in Sarawak against the British imposition of Malaysia and for North Kalimantan independence till 1990.
The real issue of “central control” was what led to the break up of Malaysia with Singapore leaving in 1965. It is now claimed by many Sabahans and Sarawakians that the Malaysia Agreement was nullified by this breakup.
The original concept of Malaysia was already defective because Brunei chose not to become part of the scheme when the Brunei Sultan saw through the Malayan intention to control all the proposed partners of “federation” and also Brunei petroleum resources.
The Malayan UMNO colonial regime’s avaricious intention to grab more North Kalimantan territory was seen in the 1990 when UMNO plotted to bribe A.M. Azahari leader of the anti-Malaysia Brunei Uprising to agree to take Brunei into Malaysia. (Such and attempt would have necessitate ovethrowing the incumbent Brunei government). This UMNO attempt was exposed by the man himself in a video recording. http://youtu.be/Rh6_69gIIIo.
Surely this discussion must take into account an important point being the independence aspirations of Sabah and Sarawak which is now one of the main topics in many websites on these colonies?
However, most of us are comfortable with the colonial mentality of prolonging the idea of Malaysia being a legitimate neo-colonial creation.
This is prolonging the 49 years of Malayan colonization and looting of Sabah and Sarawak to develop Malaya and enrich UMNO BN power elites and their local puppets in Sabah and Sarawak.
The popular slogan going around is “No Sabah No Sarawak mana ada Malaysia?”
The high and mighty horse, of morality, upon which the self proclaimed West mounted, to define the standard by which Asian countries neither can nor will ever conform to, if even there is a remote possibility.
The most basic of Human Rights being freedom.
The pillars of modern freedom being Education, Health Care and economic well being.
3 most essentials needs impossible to attain 2┬║ to abject poverty the West yesteryear policy help to induce.
How the West, the party so willingly effect the above, should now be the standard by which others must abide is truly astounding.
Is it so nefarious, as the West has with the ever changing definition of Human Rights, if Lao or any other Asian choose to define Human Rights that is not acceptable to the West ?
Calvin, how exactly is it important for us to remember such a thing? No one knows exactly what transpired between the CIA and Vang Pao’s cronies, even to this day, and a sovereign Hmong country is not one of them. Vang Pao swore his allegiance to the Lao King, no one else.
In regards to human rights, freedom, and every item that makes the west enjoyable, I can understand the “fear” that these reclusive governments have. Decades and decades of civil wars, foreign aid in the form of military or advisory personnel, and colonial rule have corrupted the minds of the inhabitants of these countries to the point that they no longer believe any way is better than their way.
I think it’s important to remember that the CIA raised a Hmong army in Laos and Vietnam by (falsely) promising them their own country and that some of those people are still attacking and killing Lao citizens to this day.
In the meantime, the Attorney General of the US just held a press conference announcing that the president may now order the killing of any US citizen in the defense of national security issues.
Given all of this, did Laos really saying anything at the UN conference that the US is not?
If you think NGO’s are not often very compromised themselves, often part of the problem themselves, often managed and run by ego-driven, career-oriented people with 6 figure salaries, expensive SUV’s, children in private International Schools paid for out of the NGO’s budget, free flights back to Europe and North America as part of their package, ten you have not looked into the darkside of NGO’s as they actually are, as they actually operate, in some of the most impoverished and miserable parts of the world…….
Unfortunately the Cambodian story of importance was hijacked by the Burmese crowd! Apologies!!!
Back to it, the problem is so complex and not simply just a case of evil Cambodian politicians even though they are. What if Hun Sen, for one, starts instigating International Criminal Court proceedings about the 1970’s “western” actions in Cambodia? Same goes for all the war time actions in Laos and of course, the depleted uranium business in the gulf, etc.
Fact is unless there is genuine humanity, humility, remorse and good will denouncing the vicious circle of “money politics” and relying only on consumerism for “business activity”, there will be never ending need for NGO’s in all parts of the world.
Also important to point out is Sondhi Limthongkul’s speech – which had very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings against karmic repercussions against the many quarters that want to harm him. He also referred to his prison sentence, and again to the attempt on his life, connecting his survival (again) somehow to his fight for the monarchy and that whoever fights truly for the monarchy will not be seriously harmed.
Such dangerous aspects of rabble rousing need to be seriously watched in Thailand. This spiritual equivalent of impunity has had fatal consequences in the past. It is worth reflecting on Thongchai Winichakul’s speech “Hyper-Royalism: Its Spells and Its Magic” given at the recent Democracy and Crisis conference at Chulalongkorn University.
“In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. ”
This is not true. The PAD managed to get at most 3000 – 5000 people, and that was on the few days they feared police dispersal, when they mobilized their southern chapters and brought them in by bus. On the last night the protest area was a bit more crowded, maybe 2000 protesters. At the time the Thai Patriot Network leaders were more open to discussion, and they regularly talked with me about their failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously.
As a comparison – during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.
Police, Special Branch and the military kept each quite close counts of the numbers, and they corresponded to my estimates, and not to yours.
“How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see. ”
You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.
As to the numbers, no, you are wrong again. At the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the same hall on March 2, 2012, just a week before the PAD meeting, there were approximately 1200 chairs inside the hall – fully occupied, plus about 200 people sitting on the floor and standing on the sides, and several hundred people sitting in the garden outside. This makes about 1500 to 2000 people in attendance, and not 500, as you state (i have photos to back that claim up). About the same as in the previous meetings in the same location.
The support of the Democrat Party you can see by Blue Sky TV regularly broadcasting the Siam Samakkhi events, by Malika having spoken on the stage during the last meet, by Chirmsak Pinthong (who is very close to the Democrat Party) being a regular speaker at Siam Smakkhi. I photographed Rotsana Tositrakul, one of the group of 40 senators, and a former PAD supporter, on the stage at Siam Sammakhi’s concert at Thammasat’s Pridi Statue on December 2, 2011. Seri Wongmontha and Kaewsan Atibodhi are regular academic speakers at Siam Samakkhi rallies, who were formerly regular speakers at PAD stages.
As to the military support, you should have a look at the networks the founding generals such as Somjet Boonthanom belong to, which position Somjet has held during the military coup, and with whom he was (and still is) affiliated.
It is a fallacy to judge the size of Siam Sammakhi by the numbers that presently attend their meetings, as their affiliated networks can mobilze far greater numbers should the need arise. We have though seen that the PAD, even when bringing in upcountry support, can mobilize only about what we have seen in 2011 – at most 5000 people – as their Democrat Party, labor union and military networks (which in the past have contributed considerable numbers) have now stopped supporting the PAD.
(jonfernquest#5) “So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t? The legal mind never ceases to amaze.”
That’s a stunningly reductionist view of law which even the current crop of Republican hopefuls in the United States might find hard to swallow. People rape, kill and steal even though there are laws on the books against such activities. An injunction against coups would serve a similar purpose of defining the activity as outside of social norms. That may not be the answer to the problem, but surely it is part of the answer.
@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?
Thanks Garuda. Your observations are welcome. I am not sure why there is a feeling that PAD is finished. Sondhi is mad. Well, he was before, so that doesn’t count. They get “small” crowds? Well smaller than during the big days, but what does that mean. The stimulus for coming out in bulk is not there yet, so why get people on the streets. They must have learned that in 2011. And, is Siam Samakki different from PAD? In the sense that the air force is different from the army? Having a bunch of right wing royalist groups has advantages if it comes to a need to mobilise. I’m thinking Navaphol, Krating Daeng, Village Scouts, etc.
PAD and like groups are likely to converge for mobilisation when/if the time is right.
I have often and for many years attended the PAD parties, so I know how to count and estimate how many are there.
As I was there from morning until evening, I went to count the number of people 3 times during the day. That was rather easy to do compared with many other PAD gatherings where it is usually not that easy to check.
The PAD crowd was – at any given time as follows:
In the concert hall – full – 27 rows x 55 chairs = 1, 485 people + some 200 sitting on the floor.
In the garden another ca 2, 000 people watching the in-door meeting from outside on big screens.
About 3, 700 persons totally.
During the whole day people came, went out/home, and new came – about 3, 000 – 4, 000 people extra added to above as new.
This will give some 6, 700 – 7, 700 people during the day. Even more than the PAD themselves have reported.
Many, even thousands, of the PAD supporters had left long before Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai had entered the stage. It was just to stand in front of the concert hall to see how many that left early, clearly being PAD supporters with stickers, flags, signs, papers, booklets and shirts.
The figures are neither good nor bad. They are expected, nothing else.
During PAD protests in the first half of 2011, it is not true they had on average only several hundred protesters at their rally site. Certain weeks, sometimes in a row, during the rallies it was down to 500 – 700 people. In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more.
How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see.
This, as I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.
If there support would come from parts of the military, the Democrat Party and affiliated senators and academics, they would definitely have many, many more people coming. They don’t have. Sorry. Just go and see!
I am so appalled to read about the lack of learning facilities in Cambodia… to have to learn without books, pens or pencils is something that no child in the 21st century should have to undergo. Could something be done about this?
Unfortunately, while suppression of freedom of speech seems to be prevalent in authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia, it is ultimately up to the citizens of the country to fight for what they want in their society.
“Ajarn Worajade: The new constitution should have a clause on coup d’état and its legal repercussions otherwise we will continue to have Thai-style democracy as we do today.”
So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t?
The legal mind never ceases to amaze.
Did the telecommunications regulatory system envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? Did criminal justice reformed as envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? (arts 237 – 246) and so on and so on ….
Connect to reality. Reality is not the imagined world of legal scholars.
Go to the prisons when the police are pushing defendants around the cell trying to extract 1.5 mil out of them for dropping the case, the pre-trial arraignment hearings held in grimy little cramped lockups 5 minutes per head, experience first-hand a legal process that is so slow that most give up or even die before any resolution on cases are made, experience a govt dept saying something like “you don’t need those documents” even though the law says they do and then many years later wham there’s a crackdown and they need the documents or its a big fine or off to jail or the Chiang Rai farmer driving the wrong way down the side of the road, hit by a drunk German whose wife’s brother or cousin (i forget) was a high-ranking military officer who works it out so he has to only pay a pittance to the quadraplegic and so on and so on … or the military guys laughing about the headman that was shot dead in front of his family (without trial) during the border altercation with Burma because of the business he had with the Burmese… etc etc… in the provinces people hear enough of these stories (that really should be plastered across the front of the newspaper) and they simply don’t register anymore or dismiss them as gossip no matter how true they are…
When will legal scholars actually go out and get their hands dirty, leave the air-conditioned office and study the grimy and unjust reality that they have helped create and perpetuate everyday?
2) The dictatorship will mend it way through the front man Thein Sein with recent Hillary Clinton visit to hug DASSK.
3) DASSK becoming a Hlutthaw member will instigate changes.
4) The policy on Myanmar is not racist.
5) Quoting DASSK own and her supports lie, that the decades of useless careless policy do not hurt the ordinary citizenry of Myanmar more/most.
Kudos to your eposé on the continued fixation of the West.
In order to change their policy they will need to eat their own spit of 40 years first.
If the West believe only in the masses making the difference like yourself and Ko Moe Aung about time policy that benefit the citizenry in every way be implemented instead of the present useless careless one that benefit the dictators and DASSK.
After muddling with Cambodia under “Dominoes Theory” for at least 2 decades that created the “Killing Field” situation, now complaining against the government of Hun Sen after aiding Cambodia for less than the time it muddle with!
The West should be thanking Hun Sen/Vietnam for ending Pol Pot regime from turning Cambodia to a permanent Haiti or worst N. Korea.
Mr. Ooi, you are sitting there while we are sitting in. Often things are simpler than they seem. Practically anybody from the street can become a politician and often they do. The way the average Malaysians see it, politics is about making money. It’s about how much allocations and how to spend those allocations and make money in the process. Thereafter, the politicians who are in control get those “learned” advisers and aides to justify with economic and social development theories.
Many Malaysians live in fear of the authorities knowing that their limited resources cannot fight a powerful entity. Moreover they see government as controlling all the leading institutions. They can make life very difficult for you. Political awareness is very poor among the hoards. They see it as “if politicians don’t make money for themselves, then they are stupid”. In fact it is wholly expected an accepted.
We see the coalition mainly as a “divide and rule and divide and spend” concept. Each chief in the coalition has their areas to rule and allocations to spend. That’s why the races feel betrayed because while making themselves comfortable, they have not look into the “racial” interests of the community. Themes like Vision 2020 and Bangsa Malaysia there thought off by “theme thinkers” perhaps while sitting “on the throne” – so to speak –one inspirational morning. They look good but have no essence. Vision 2020 is a genius of a concoction mainly to buy time and justify keeping the same government while Bangsa Malaysia was shot down by the very members of the government themselves.
Distrust in reforms after Pakatan comes in, and if they do, is that they would take some time before the dust settles with “who gets what”. Only fools will leave caution to the wind. For starters, PAS is an Islamic party and PKR is seen as renegades from BN while the DAP has been there all along. Many are likely to be impatient and internal squabbles would thrive at least for a while thereby screwing up things for us too.
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A week of colour
“Garuda”:
I arrived at about 15.00, not too long after incident of the voice TV car, and left not long after Sondhi L.’s speech, maybe just after 20.00. During this time i did what i always do – i move around the area, and talk with people i know. Therefore you won’t see me stationary at the stage for long.
As to the numbers, we could argue forever. I have my own estimates, and compare them with the estimates of special branch, military intel and police (who all have a vast experience in estimating crowds – it is their profession, after all), and draw a medium.
When you mentioned the meetings at Victory monument – these were not full Siam Samakkhi meetings, they were meetings of Dr. Tul’s group, which is now one of the groups allied with Siam Samakkhi. Full Siam Samakkhi meetings are generally larger, as they include many groups, such as the different facebook groups such as Boworn Yasinthorn’s group, many people that also attend the PAD meetings, now also some of the Santi Asoke sect, and many of the former “Hiso-PAD”.
The 2011 PAD/Thai Patriot Network rally was hardly reported on by most media. The majority of journalists only came to the press conferences, and left straight away to the press room in government house. I came regularly though. The only independent media that had a cameraman at the stage all the time was TNN. I also went to Aranyaprathet when the Thai Patriot network protested there (as the only foreign journalist), and was also part of the group of journalists that were allowed by the military to accompany their reps to the border.
I didn’t have the time though to write a report on all that for New Mandala.
As to the impression of the numbers attending the Makkhawan rally site, people gathered at the small space in front of the stage, the area immediately behind it, until the Thai Patriot Network’s area began were mostly empty tents giving a resemblance of a large crowd.
There were a few occasions when protesters came out, such as at the swearing of the oath at Royal Plaza on February 11, 2011, and the combined crowd was incredibly small compared to the 2006 and the 2008 protests.
As to vested interests having a tendency to use different groups for their own means, i somewhat agree with you there. The PAD was definitely used by the establishment when the establishment saw the potential of the PAD in early 2006. And the PAD also became uncomfortable for their backers, first after the coup, leading to another collaboration in 2008, another fall out in 2009, a somewhat unsuccessful attempted collaboration during the 2010 Red Shirt rallies by setting up together the Pink Shirts/Multicolored Group/Silom People, and leading to a final fall out in the 2011 protests.
Many say that there is always the option that the PAD and their former backers could get back together again, but i personally have serious doubts about that, especially as long as Sondhi is still a main leader.
Siam Samakkhi was founded by members of the coup group directly, quite different from both the PAD and the Red Shirts, which grew somewhat more organically. But where we differ in our assessment is that i believe that at present the PAD is now at a dead end, and devolved into a fringe group without mass base and has lost almost all allies.
Siam Samakkhi may not have a mass base either, but has allied networks that can provide them with something that will resemble a mass base (through Democrat and military networks).
Mass based street politics in Thailand now have to a large part been taken over by the Red Shirts, who morphed over the years from a disorganized rabble in 2006/2007 into the most sophisticated social mass movement Thailand has ever seen – each crackdown against them resulted in structural changes and improvements leading to an incredibly multi-layered organization.
A week of colour
“Nick Nostitz #4 & 10”
Thanks for your comments!
Just a short explanation and clarification on my and your comments about PAD’s meeting at the concert hall in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012.
Neither you nor I have to fully relay on others figures – we can go counting ourselves to find out. So I did. Three times that day. Also people who leave early were there once. Also those who came later. They also have to be counted. I hope you wouldn’t like to hear that you were not there because you were not there at a specific time when somebody looked for you? Either you were there some time, or you were not. That’s what counts.
The figures of supporters I reported (in Garuda #6) attending the PAD party in the concert hall and surroundings in Lumpini Park, 10 of March 2012, are most likely correct as they cover morning, day and evening. Not just when Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai talked for some 2 hours. It covers 10-11 hours, and that is much longer. Some supporters just came for the registration and voting that took place about how the PAD should proceed with the movement. Many of the voters just came for that and left (almost) immediately thereafter. Most of the registration and voting took place from 9 a.m. to around 1 p.m. One could still vote later, though many did not do so thereafter. If you would have been there that early, you would also have seen what not just I saw, we all saw, we who were there that early.
During that day it was rather easy to see farangs moving around inside the concert hall as well as in the surroundings. The most obvious reason is that you all stick out by being white skinned. Simple as that. You were not that many. During the event I just saw 3 Caucasian journalists and photographers, and 1 what seemed to be just a white supporter of the PAD. That was all. One of the journalists and photographers was there for about 1 hour in the mid day, one two hours later for about 1/2 hour. And, what could it be for you Nick? Best for 3 hours. I hope I’m not wrong with you. So how many supporters of PAD were you able to see during your approximately 3 hours there? Were you able to see and count all those who were there before you came?
You’re a great journalist, Nick. I read with great interest your books and articles. You’ve got the picture(s) to a great extent correct, though not always.
But,… you were not there that early and long to be able to judge how many PAD supporters were there prior to your arrival. As I understand, we are not equipped with such extraordinary senses of being able to judge things we cannot see or know if we are not there (if we are not The Lord Buddha, that is), are we? Can we agree on that, Nick?!
PAD plays by the tune ‘wait and see’.
If you look at the picture(s) from Bangkok Post published 26/01/2011 (from the same time also different published pictures from other newspapers showed the same), you’ll clearly see that the PAD party reaches from Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to Royal Plaza covering all traffic lanes blocking the whole avenue. It also reached from Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue down to Government House, where Chamlong Srimuang’s Santi Asoke (Buddhist sect) had their camp and rally. That is well over 20, 000 people, I count low here (PAD would say 50, 000 or more). It could actually have been well over 25,000 – 30,000. It was like this for some time (if I remember correct for 10-14 days), then it went down. It goes up and down. This happens during all PAD rallies, nothing unusual with that. Still many thousands of people there.
Judge yourself:
See photos in Bangkok Post 26/01/2011: “Military flexes its muscle” http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/218177/military-flexes-its-muscle
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in BP) on: http://khmernz.blogspot.com/2011_01_26_archive.html
More photos can be seen in Tan Network “People’s Alliance Kicks Off Mass Rally” 25/01/2011:
http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1040011
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in Tan Network) on: http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
Jet more photos in The Nation 28/01/2011: ‘Hello, we’re back!’
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/01/26/national/Hello-were-back%21-30147216.html
also see the same picture (if the picture does not show up in The Nation) on:
http://www.subzerosiam.com/forum/showthread.php/28156-PAD-Accede-to-demands-or-rally-continues
Why the PAD came out.
First a clarification. What everyone clearly could witness happening at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge from January to July 2011 was not at all/really a PAD rally organized by the PAD. From Khun Limthongkul I’ve got the following explanation to why PAD came out. PAD didn’t first answer to the request of Chamlong Srimuang as he had wanted it to do. The collective view to the request from the other 4 leaders was that this was not for the PAD to get involved into. After a considerable time trying to avoid getting into this conflict/protest, the other 4 leaders finally felt they couldn’t deny Chamlong the support. Actually they ‘somehow’ were forced to help their friend.
It’s correct Nick what you write: “on the few days they feared police dispersal”. Yes, that’s why they came out that many already the first day(s). Most of the supporters leaving after some time were people from the north and northeast of Thailand. Yes, the PAD has quite a lot of their supporters coming from there, even poor farmers. When supporters felt the area was enough safeguarded by that many already, several thousand went home for work or whatever reasons they had. This happens all the time. When it is or will be serious/hot enough they (will) come/came back in big quantities.
It is like this. PAD supporters, especially during 2011, came in the afternoons or evenings, because they were usually from Bangkok area and worked during daytime. They stayed until the leaders had talked or to some time thereafter, then they went home. Another reason why many were not there in daytime was that there was no special program then and it was very hot sitting there and you get very, very tired. Try it, and you’ll see.
The month before 25 of May the number of supporters was many days/nights down to 500-700 people – fully correct. When PAD celebrated three years since the restart of their street protests on May 25, 2008 at Democracy Monument on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, the figures were up with some thousands again, for some days. Then again it went down until it started to go up some three weeks before the party was ended 1 of July. It went rapidly up to several thousand up to 10, 000 or more the final day.
During May and June I was frequently approached by various people in Bangkok, even journalists, who told me that the PAD rally was closed down (quite often mentioned as closed down by the police), the tents and stages gone and traffic was as usual on Ratchadamnoen Avenue. Oh, wishful thinking. They were wrong, of course. Sometimes I had to call some friends at Makkhawan Rangsan Bridge to find out or to have the approaching persons to talk in my mobile with somebody at the spot. They were still there, of course.
The Thai Patriot Network is an offshoot of the PAD movement, not necessarily agreeing on everything PAD does. Many of them (especially the more prominent and sometimes older ones) have lived in US most of their lives or at least long enough to, to some extent, have ‘lost’ their contact to Thailand (the country they once left for finding something better), understanding what is going on in their ‘home’ country or even dreaming of a Thailand that once was Siam and, in their eyes, a much greater nation than Thailand is today. They are some kind of expats, and same as many farangs here are not fully acclimatized to ‘their new home country’, still after all these years making complaints of the land they originate from.
I sometimes talk with their leaders/’spokespersons’ about their views of PAD and Thailand. Unfortunately, they, in my view, seem to have less knowledge than the ordinary PAD supporter has about Thailand and what is going on. It is quite often not that easy to discuss with them if you go deeper into the subjects. If PAD many times is referred to as being nationalistic, then the Thai Patriot Network really can live up to it all. Could be one reason why they feel “their (PAD’s) failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously”. They may be disappointed that PAD has not been able to change that much as they would have wanted. Things take time.
To your comparison: “during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.”
As I were there during the October 7, 2008 clashes – the days before, that day and the days and nights after, I think I have a ‘rather’ clear picture, as clear as one can have over that extended area. Of course, neither you nor I could cover such a big area.
The support masses of PAD were at that time still quite huge. I would say they exceeded the 10, 000 you write. They were more likely in the region of 30, 000. It is first by the end of October they go down. Especially during November and the weeks before the seizure of Don Mueang Airport and Suvarnabhumi International Airport on the evening 25 of November. The weeks before the seizure of the airports the occupied Government House area was ‘almost deserted’, sometimes looking like ‘ghost blocks’. This should not be interpreted as ‘all had left’.
The numbers had by then declined/dwindled considerably compared with before. After that many days in protests, it was not easy for the PAD movement and leaders to keep that many supporters staying day after day, week out and in, month after month not having accomplished that much yet. Many were so exhausted by now and ‘Red-Shirt’ Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol (“Sae Daeng”) moved around in the area, on roofs, creating death and terror to some PAD supporters inside and outside the garden of the Government House.
Suddenly, the movement got fresh air and woke up en masse to occupy the airports with great success. That can happen again. The PAD movement can once again wake up en masse. They have still not lost their force. Don’t count them out yet. That would be a mistake.
I am sure PAD can, as you mention about Siam Samakkhi and their network, “mobilize far greater numbers should the need arise”.
You write: “You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.”
You and it may be right. But, as loyalty in Thailand changes rather quick if not rapidly (you would know by now), we wouldn’t know very well what is valid and real tomorrow. Many of the PAD supporters were Thaksin Shinawatra supporters before they switched to PAD. Correct!?
Asking, yesterday, one of the original PAD organizers, still within the movement, still organizing, he told me that “no one really knows”. No one really knows.
Unfortunately, I was not able to come to the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the Lumpini Park concert hall on 2 of March 2012, as I had other engagements to attend that day. And, my main work is absolutely not checking and attending every party or rally there is. Very few can make a living on doing that. I fully trust you if you say that there was 1, 500 – 2, 000 people in attendance. I wasn’t there and can not and should not contradict what you’re telling.
I said: “I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.”
We all take photos when going to political parties. And, so do I. I don’t need to back up that claim with photos. A normal rally of Siam Samakkhi, let’s say at Victory Monument, just attracts about 100 – 150 supporters. They have been there several of times. So have I. And, with camera. Usually with the same result – not too many came. You couldn’t claim it was crowded, not really even a crowd. Many of them are my long-time friends.
What you say about the Democrat Party’s support of the Siam Samakkhi and its events is true, of course. So is the support from the group of 40 senators, some academics and parts of the military.
What if their support to Siam Samakkhi in the end is/will be/leads to/turns out to be a repetition of the support once given the PAD by the same above mentioned? The Siam Samakkhi being fooled by someone (the same groups) they once trusted being able to help them change Thailand to a better place for all Thais, by turning their back to them later on! See what happened after the PAD helped them out in 2006 and 2008.
I don’t know if you can say that the Democrat Party and military networks now have stopped supporting the PAD. What I know is that they turned their back on them. That is quite a different way of expressing what really happened after the PAD had ‘helped’ the above mentioned. In 2011, or rather long before that, the PAD had had enough of both the Democrat Party and military (networks). The PAD felt they were not being at all ‘rewarded’ for ‘doing the work for them’. Rewarded should be interpreted as not even trying, in PAD view, making a better, not corrupt Thailand a.o.t. PAD were not themselves interested in own political power, just that the parties in the Parliament should do what they, by the people/voters, were expected to do. Nothing else.
Military support goes to Siam Samakkhi, the Red Shirts/United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), and still to the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and possibly others too. They are all supported by the military directly or persons representing the military.
So it also is with support and money coming from the big, medium and small companies in Thailand. It goes to all of the above mentioned movements as well as to all political parties, the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party, as well as the rest. Most often a company is supporting and giving to/investing money in more than one party at the same time. This as no one fully knows who will win, lead, participate in or control a next government.
Who is supporting who and who is screwing/fucking who for the moment? If we (just) knew that… Then there may be a different and better Thailand for all to live in, don’t you agree?
For some time, during last year’s rally, PAD was economically supported by PTT (a Thai state-owned SET-listed oil and gas company, formerly known as the Petroleum Authority of Thailand), before PAD sued them and lost their money support.
Strange that no one of you mentioned what Pipob Thongchai said, that the PAD’s cautious approach could lead to real change as the group was serious about building up networks and educating people about political regimes.
If the PAD had started doing this already in 2008, it would have been better, than starting now, when the Red Shirts already are in the swing with their education concept of democracy.
Better late than sorry, it seems.
Luecha Na Malai #8
Correct, you’ve got it right. “PAD people are no exception” of being in good company of politicians being corrupt. Some of them are also practicing the double standards’ trait. Are you really surprised?
Dan D #8
“@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?”
I don’t know what is official within the PAD or not. PAD doesn’t really work that way, always. In many ways PAD is well organized, but in this case various information comes from inside, and from, of course, from different people. Remember, we are in Thailand. Does it surprise you?
Sam Deedes #11
You know how Sondhi Limthongkul is. Of course, don’t forget he is, to some extent, dangerous with his “very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings”. Just don’t get too hooked on it. He does have more relevant things to say.
What a Great Country Thailand is!
“Garuda” has attended the PAD rallies for more than 200 days, the UDD rallies for more than 40 days, the Siam Samakkhi so many times and other parties and colours frequently from 2005 until now. He will continuously do so.
Malaysia after regime change – Ooi Kee Beng
ISN’T MALAYSIA DE FACTO COLONIALISM?
The term “de facto” colonialism used in the article is very accurate!
But let us have a frank and honest discussion. We should not confine our discussion within our intellectual comfort zone by omitting a whole chunk of historical facts in skipping one important historical detail.
“Malaysia 1963 exists” because of the British sponsored Malayan annexation of Sabah and Sarawak as new colonies.
The majority of Scholars tend to limit their learned discussions on Malaysia to the events surrounding the Malayan Federation 1957 but confusingly use the term “Malaysia” which only existed from 1963 in their discussions.
This is grave intellectual dishonesty. Unless we are ignorant of the facts let us re-visit history.
The term “Malaysia” was a British neo-colonial concept which was intended to create “de facto” colonialism. This was just a re-branding of the 1942 Malayan Union plan by the British Foreign Office to consolidate the administration of the Borneo/Kalimantan colonies by merging them with Malaya and Singapore under their grand Malaysia Plan.
When the proposal was announced by the Malayan Prime Minister (self-proclaimed “Bapa Malaysia”) at the beginnnithis “plan” was immediately condemned and opposed by the North Borneon/Kalimantan independence movement as a neo-colonial scheme to prolonged colonial rule. The term used in the article “de facto” colonialism is very accurate!
The local opposition led to the outbreak of the anti-Malaysia Uprising in Brunei on December 8 1962 and opened up the people’s guerrilla national liberation war in Sarawak against the British imposition of Malaysia and for North Kalimantan independence till 1990.
The real issue of “central control” was what led to the break up of Malaysia with Singapore leaving in 1965. It is now claimed by many Sabahans and Sarawakians that the Malaysia Agreement was nullified by this breakup.
The original concept of Malaysia was already defective because Brunei chose not to become part of the scheme when the Brunei Sultan saw through the Malayan intention to control all the proposed partners of “federation” and also Brunei petroleum resources.
The Malayan UMNO colonial regime’s avaricious intention to grab more North Kalimantan territory was seen in the 1990 when UMNO plotted to bribe A.M. Azahari leader of the anti-Malaysia Brunei Uprising to agree to take Brunei into Malaysia. (Such and attempt would have necessitate ovethrowing the incumbent Brunei government). This UMNO attempt was exposed by the man himself in a video recording. http://youtu.be/Rh6_69gIIIo.
Surely this discussion must take into account an important point being the independence aspirations of Sabah and Sarawak which is now one of the main topics in many websites on these colonies?
However, most of us are comfortable with the colonial mentality of prolonging the idea of Malaysia being a legitimate neo-colonial creation.
This is prolonging the 49 years of Malayan colonization and looting of Sabah and Sarawak to develop Malaya and enrich UMNO BN power elites and their local puppets in Sabah and Sarawak.
The popular slogan going around is “No Sabah No Sarawak mana ada Malaysia?”
Very true.
Recluses and reforms in Southeast Asia
Human Rights
The high and mighty horse, of morality, upon which the self proclaimed West mounted, to define the standard by which Asian countries neither can nor will ever conform to, if even there is a remote possibility.
The most basic of Human Rights being freedom.
The pillars of modern freedom being Education, Health Care and economic well being.
3 most essentials needs impossible to attain 2┬║ to abject poverty the West yesteryear policy help to induce.
How the West, the party so willingly effect the above, should now be the standard by which others must abide is truly astounding.
Is it so nefarious, as the West has with the ever changing definition of Human Rights, if Lao or any other Asian choose to define Human Rights that is not acceptable to the West ?
Recluses and reforms in Southeast Asia
Calvin, how exactly is it important for us to remember such a thing? No one knows exactly what transpired between the CIA and Vang Pao’s cronies, even to this day, and a sovereign Hmong country is not one of them. Vang Pao swore his allegiance to the Lao King, no one else.
In regards to human rights, freedom, and every item that makes the west enjoyable, I can understand the “fear” that these reclusive governments have. Decades and decades of civil wars, foreign aid in the form of military or advisory personnel, and colonial rule have corrupted the minds of the inhabitants of these countries to the point that they no longer believe any way is better than their way.
University rankings from Chula’s perspective
Interesting list of best universities in Asia from the UK Times:
http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2011-2012/asia.html
University of Tokyo #1
University of Hong Kong #2
National University of Singapore #3
Mahidol University Thailand a ways down the list.
Many other universities from China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, a few more from Hong Kong and Singapore. A few from Turkey, Iran, Israel.
Chula not on the list at all.
Recluses and reforms in Southeast Asia
I think it’s important to remember that the CIA raised a Hmong army in Laos and Vietnam by (falsely) promising them their own country and that some of those people are still attacking and killing Lao citizens to this day.
In the meantime, the Attorney General of the US just held a press conference announcing that the president may now order the killing of any US citizen in the defense of national security issues.
Given all of this, did Laos really saying anything at the UN conference that the US is not?
Meet the Mekong mafia
If you think NGO’s are not often very compromised themselves, often part of the problem themselves, often managed and run by ego-driven, career-oriented people with 6 figure salaries, expensive SUV’s, children in private International Schools paid for out of the NGO’s budget, free flights back to Europe and North America as part of their package, ten you have not looked into the darkside of NGO’s as they actually are, as they actually operate, in some of the most impoverished and miserable parts of the world…….
Meet the Mekong mafia
Unfortunately the Cambodian story of importance was hijacked by the Burmese crowd! Apologies!!!
Back to it, the problem is so complex and not simply just a case of evil Cambodian politicians even though they are. What if Hun Sen, for one, starts instigating International Criminal Court proceedings about the 1970’s “western” actions in Cambodia? Same goes for all the war time actions in Laos and of course, the depleted uranium business in the gulf, etc.
Fact is unless there is genuine humanity, humility, remorse and good will denouncing the vicious circle of “money politics” and relying only on consumerism for “business activity”, there will be never ending need for NGO’s in all parts of the world.
A week of colour
Nick Nostitz #4
Also important to point out is Sondhi Limthongkul’s speech – which had very strong religious overtones, full of his prophecies and warnings against karmic repercussions against the many quarters that want to harm him. He also referred to his prison sentence, and again to the attempt on his life, connecting his survival (again) somehow to his fight for the monarchy and that whoever fights truly for the monarchy will not be seriously harmed.
Such dangerous aspects of rabble rousing need to be seriously watched in Thailand. This spiritual equivalent of impunity has had fatal consequences in the past. It is worth reflecting on Thongchai Winichakul’s speech “Hyper-Royalism: Its Spells and Its Magic” given at the recent Democracy and Crisis conference at Chulalongkorn University.
http://prachatai.com/english/node/3097
Interview with Cambodian writer Tararith Kho
Hello
Really interesting interview. Is there any website or blog where Thararith Kho’s writings are posted? I mean in Khmer language.
Thank you
Francois
A week of colour
“Garuda”:
“In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. ”
This is not true. The PAD managed to get at most 3000 – 5000 people, and that was on the few days they feared police dispersal, when they mobilized their southern chapters and brought them in by bus. On the last night the protest area was a bit more crowded, maybe 2000 protesters. At the time the Thai Patriot Network leaders were more open to discussion, and they regularly talked with me about their failure to attract the crowds their groups did previously.
As a comparison – during the October 7, 2008 clashes, the PAD had approximately 10 000 protesters, and never during the 2011 protests the PAD could attract such a crowd.
Police, Special Branch and the military kept each quite close counts of the numbers, and they corresponded to my estimates, and not to yours.
“How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see. ”
You can see that by looking at the Thai specific networks, who is connected to whom, and which figures appear at respective groups, and who do not.
As to the numbers, no, you are wrong again. At the Siam Samakkhi meeting in the same hall on March 2, 2012, just a week before the PAD meeting, there were approximately 1200 chairs inside the hall – fully occupied, plus about 200 people sitting on the floor and standing on the sides, and several hundred people sitting in the garden outside. This makes about 1500 to 2000 people in attendance, and not 500, as you state (i have photos to back that claim up). About the same as in the previous meetings in the same location.
The support of the Democrat Party you can see by Blue Sky TV regularly broadcasting the Siam Samakkhi events, by Malika having spoken on the stage during the last meet, by Chirmsak Pinthong (who is very close to the Democrat Party) being a regular speaker at Siam Smakkhi. I photographed Rotsana Tositrakul, one of the group of 40 senators, and a former PAD supporter, on the stage at Siam Sammakhi’s concert at Thammasat’s Pridi Statue on December 2, 2011. Seri Wongmontha and Kaewsan Atibodhi are regular academic speakers at Siam Samakkhi rallies, who were formerly regular speakers at PAD stages.
As to the military support, you should have a look at the networks the founding generals such as Somjet Boonthanom belong to, which position Somjet has held during the military coup, and with whom he was (and still is) affiliated.
It is a fallacy to judge the size of Siam Sammakhi by the numbers that presently attend their meetings, as their affiliated networks can mobilze far greater numbers should the need arise. We have though seen that the PAD, even when bringing in upcountry support, can mobilize only about what we have seen in 2011 – at most 5000 people – as their Democrat Party, labor union and military networks (which in the past have contributed considerable numbers) have now stopped supporting the PAD.
A week of colour
(jonfernquest#5) “So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t? The legal mind never ceases to amaze.”
That’s a stunningly reductionist view of law which even the current crop of Republican hopefuls in the United States might find hard to swallow. People rape, kill and steal even though there are laws on the books against such activities. An injunction against coups would serve a similar purpose of defining the activity as outside of social norms. That may not be the answer to the problem, but surely it is part of the answer.
A week of colour
@Garuda, not trying to nitpick but the figures given by PAD supporters on my FB page range from 20,000 to 40,000. Are you saying there is an official PAD head count?
A week of colour
Thanks Garuda. Your observations are welcome. I am not sure why there is a feeling that PAD is finished. Sondhi is mad. Well, he was before, so that doesn’t count. They get “small” crowds? Well smaller than during the big days, but what does that mean. The stimulus for coming out in bulk is not there yet, so why get people on the streets. They must have learned that in 2011. And, is Siam Samakki different from PAD? In the sense that the air force is different from the army? Having a bunch of right wing royalist groups has advantages if it comes to a need to mobilise. I’m thinking Navaphol, Krating Daeng, Village Scouts, etc.
PAD and like groups are likely to converge for mobilisation when/if the time is right.
A week of colour
I have often and for many years attended the PAD parties, so I know how to count and estimate how many are there.
As I was there from morning until evening, I went to count the number of people 3 times during the day. That was rather easy to do compared with many other PAD gatherings where it is usually not that easy to check.
The PAD crowd was – at any given time as follows:
In the concert hall – full – 27 rows x 55 chairs = 1, 485 people + some 200 sitting on the floor.
In the garden another ca 2, 000 people watching the in-door meeting from outside on big screens.
About 3, 700 persons totally.
During the whole day people came, went out/home, and new came – about 3, 000 – 4, 000 people extra added to above as new.
This will give some 6, 700 – 7, 700 people during the day. Even more than the PAD themselves have reported.
Many, even thousands, of the PAD supporters had left long before Chamlong Srimuang, Sondhi Limthongkul and Phiphob Thongchai had entered the stage. It was just to stand in front of the concert hall to see how many that left early, clearly being PAD supporters with stickers, flags, signs, papers, booklets and shirts.
The figures are neither good nor bad. They are expected, nothing else.
During PAD protests in the first half of 2011, it is not true they had on average only several hundred protesters at their rally site. Certain weeks, sometimes in a row, during the rallies it was down to 500 – 700 people. In the beginning they where several thousand up to 10, 000 and more. From half way into the rallies it went down to far less. The last three weeks it went rapidly up again to several thousand up to 10, 000 and more.
How it is possible the parts of the military that once supported the PAD have switched their support to Siam Samakkhi, I cannot see.
This, as I attend Siam Samakkhi every second meeting they have, I know very well they have far less supporters turning up than the PAD – usually just 150 – 500. On a very good day 500.
If there support would come from parts of the military, the Democrat Party and affiliated senators and academics, they would definitely have many, many more people coming. They don’t have. Sorry. Just go and see!
Interview with Cambodian writer Tararith Kho
I am so appalled to read about the lack of learning facilities in Cambodia… to have to learn without books, pens or pencils is something that no child in the 21st century should have to undergo. Could something be done about this?
Unfortunately, while suppression of freedom of speech seems to be prevalent in authoritarian regimes in Southeast Asia, it is ultimately up to the citizens of the country to fight for what they want in their society.
A week of colour
“Ajarn Worajade: The new constitution should have a clause on coup d’état and its legal repercussions otherwise we will continue to have Thai-style democracy as we do today.”
So a coup wouldn’t happen because the constitution says it can’t?
The legal mind never ceases to amaze.
Did the telecommunications regulatory system envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? Did criminal justice reformed as envisioned by the 1997 constitution ever come to pass? (arts 237 – 246) and so on and so on ….
Connect to reality. Reality is not the imagined world of legal scholars.
Go to the prisons when the police are pushing defendants around the cell trying to extract 1.5 mil out of them for dropping the case, the pre-trial arraignment hearings held in grimy little cramped lockups 5 minutes per head, experience first-hand a legal process that is so slow that most give up or even die before any resolution on cases are made, experience a govt dept saying something like “you don’t need those documents” even though the law says they do and then many years later wham there’s a crackdown and they need the documents or its a big fine or off to jail or the Chiang Rai farmer driving the wrong way down the side of the road, hit by a drunk German whose wife’s brother or cousin (i forget) was a high-ranking military officer who works it out so he has to only pay a pittance to the quadraplegic and so on and so on … or the military guys laughing about the headman that was shot dead in front of his family (without trial) during the border altercation with Burma because of the business he had with the Burmese… etc etc… in the provinces people hear enough of these stories (that really should be plastered across the front of the newspaper) and they simply don’t register anymore or dismiss them as gossip no matter how true they are…
When will legal scholars actually go out and get their hands dirty, leave the air-conditioned office and study the grimy and unjust reality that they have helped create and perpetuate everyday?
And after they study it, do something about it.
Meet the Mekong mafia
Ohn #11
Just a few Lies that will make Devil proud:
1) Majority of Myanmar Citizenry support DASSK
2) The dictatorship will mend it way through the front man Thein Sein with recent Hillary Clinton visit to hug DASSK.
3) DASSK becoming a Hlutthaw member will instigate changes.
4) The policy on Myanmar is not racist.
5) Quoting DASSK own and her supports lie, that the decades of useless careless policy do not hurt the ordinary citizenry of Myanmar more/most.
Kudos to your eposé on the continued fixation of the West.
In order to change their policy they will need to eat their own spit of 40 years first.
If the West believe only in the masses making the difference like yourself and Ko Moe Aung about time policy that benefit the citizenry in every way be implemented instead of the present useless careless one that benefit the dictators and DASSK.
After muddling with Cambodia under “Dominoes Theory” for at least 2 decades that created the “Killing Field” situation, now complaining against the government of Hun Sen after aiding Cambodia for less than the time it muddle with!
The West should be thanking Hun Sen/Vietnam for ending Pol Pot regime from turning Cambodia to a permanent Haiti or worst N. Korea.
Malaysia after regime change – Ooi Kee Beng
Mr. Ooi, you are sitting there while we are sitting in. Often things are simpler than they seem. Practically anybody from the street can become a politician and often they do. The way the average Malaysians see it, politics is about making money. It’s about how much allocations and how to spend those allocations and make money in the process. Thereafter, the politicians who are in control get those “learned” advisers and aides to justify with economic and social development theories.
Many Malaysians live in fear of the authorities knowing that their limited resources cannot fight a powerful entity. Moreover they see government as controlling all the leading institutions. They can make life very difficult for you. Political awareness is very poor among the hoards. They see it as “if politicians don’t make money for themselves, then they are stupid”. In fact it is wholly expected an accepted.
We see the coalition mainly as a “divide and rule and divide and spend” concept. Each chief in the coalition has their areas to rule and allocations to spend. That’s why the races feel betrayed because while making themselves comfortable, they have not look into the “racial” interests of the community. Themes like Vision 2020 and Bangsa Malaysia there thought off by “theme thinkers” perhaps while sitting “on the throne” – so to speak –one inspirational morning. They look good but have no essence. Vision 2020 is a genius of a concoction mainly to buy time and justify keeping the same government while Bangsa Malaysia was shot down by the very members of the government themselves.
Distrust in reforms after Pakatan comes in, and if they do, is that they would take some time before the dust settles with “who gets what”. Only fools will leave caution to the wind. For starters, PAS is an Islamic party and PKR is seen as renegades from BN while the DAP has been there all along. Many are likely to be impatient and internal squabbles would thrive at least for a while thereby screwing up things for us too.