Comments

  1. Tarrin says:

    KA- 70

    1. The 1st Infantry Division official name is 1st Infantry Division “Mahardlek Raksa Pra Ong” (р╕бр╕лр╕▓р╕Фр╣Ар╕ер╣Зр╕Бр╕гр╕▒р╕Бр╕йр╕▓р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕нр╕Зр╕Др╣М). Not sure what the direct translation for Mahardlek but my best guess is something like Earl or Viscount of British equivalent. The English equivalent of Mahardlek Raksa Pra Ong would be King’s Own Guard. The 1st Infantry Division usually regard as the King’s Guard and the unofficial name is Vongtawan (р╕зр╕Зр╕ир╣Мр╣Ар╕Чр╕зр╕▒р╕Н) . The 2nd Infantry Division official name was 2nd Infantry Division Raksa Pra Ong (Royal Guard). However, the unofficial name for the 2nd division was “Burapa Payak” (р╕Ър╕╣р╕гр╕Юр╕▓р╕Юр╕вр╕▒р╕Др╕Жр╣М) (Eastern Tiger) and is considered as the “Queen’s Guard” . Usually the only way to distinguish them other than the unite’s insignia is their ceremonial uniform, the regiments from the 1st division wear red or white while the 2nd division use purple and/or black. I’m note sure about the exact colour since its different from regiment to regiment.

    2. Royal Thai Army is the official English name, there’s no equivalent word for “Royal” in Thai.

    3. I think its the same with 2. just different in official Thai and Eng name.

  2. WLH says:

    Censorship update:

    Most links are now blocked by MICT if using Loxinfo.

    However, using HTTPS everywhere extension on Firefox still gets you to the WordPress site.

    So far the MICT has been unable to block HTTPS protocol on any site, as far as I can tell.

    Carry on.

  3. CT says:

    @David,

    If this occurs in any civilized country, the person who signed this off may be held accountable for blatant attempt to cause the public to nullify their right to vote.

    But I think you know, this is Thailand we are talking about…so, I think the person who signed this off, should be handsomely rewarded, if there appears to be millions of invalid votes due to the Phua Thai voters putting a cross on the wrong square :p

  4. Afraid Thai says:

    Billboards like this are EXTREMELY dangerous for the monarchy. What if the majority actually votes for the party that р╣Бр╕Др╣Йр╕Щр╣Ар╕Др╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕кр╕Цр╕▓р╕Ър╕▒р╕Щ (despises and wants revenge on the “institution”)?

    If the yellow shirts try to position this election as a large-scale referendum on the monarchy, then the PT party would actually be justified in taking steps to dismantle the power bases of the palace. I don’t think anybody (besides the red socialists) want that.

  5. David Brown says:

    who signed off on the pre-print?

    will they be held accountable? or rewarded?

  6. Mariner says:

    In Britain, opinion polls have a pretty good track record; not doubt about that. But what about here in Thailand? How much faith can you put in the various polls upon which many of you seem to be predicating arguments about future coups, coalitions and so on. Does anyone know if these polls are really sound? How rigorous is the sampling procedure and how successfully have polls predicted earlier election results?

    My view: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the polls prove highly inaccurate.

    It goes without saying that whatever unfolds in the event of a PT win has already been decided by the non-PT players on the Thai political scene. After all, it would surely be irresponsible in the extreme were the invisible hand not not to have a response ready should the electorate vote for the wrong candidates.

  7. neptunian says:

    What’s my future?

    Malaysian police just arrested 30 members of PPP for “waging war against the King”?!

    How’s that for not worrying about public opinion from within Malaysia or from the West? Did not even bother with a better “trump up” charge. Waging war against the King – worse than the Les Majeste of Thailand.

  8. Nuomi says:

    @Ralph

    The logic behind BkkPost’s 30,000 crowd is this: 6000 on site, PLUS 24,000 facebook fans watching the speech broadcast live.

    With BKK Post one have to read the fine-prints and the last few paragraphs very very carefully.

    Though I am not certain how one can find out how many people is watching face-book or youtube live within 4 hours (from rally time to when BkkPost went to print). Any tech expert here?

    ======

    “But the Bangkok Post first said 17000 and has now upped that to 30000. What’s going on there with the paper that is “the world’s window on Thailand” and the “newspaper you can trust”?”

  9. Nuomi says:

    #11 Ricky and #13 Blah Blah

    Good point there (‘Vichai onto something’ and ‘repeating a one-liner without any rationale and/or proof’)

    Totally agree one cannot expect locals to think the same way as Andrew or the bulk of the rest of us here, due to differences in economic, educational and social background.

    Interesting though, is the question whether or not Thais really ‘fear’ the unrest should Peau Thai wins outright majority. Will they be
    ” finally be swayed by the ‘fear’ factor . . . that a winning PTP rule would lead to more, not less, instability and unrest for the whole Kingdom… ” ?

    Personally, I think this ‘fear factor’ is more of a Bangkok thing than a whole of Thailand thing. I mean, once we take the whole country into account, we usually find Bangkok’s reaction the ‘outlier’ case as compared to the rest of the country. Outside of Bangkok, I believe the party-lines are already drawn according to generations old patronage loyalty in most cases. So I guess, the question will be, how much would the R rally impact BKK votes? Would it gives DP the 27 seats as Suthep confidently announced?

    I would not be so arrogant as to presume what an educated Bangkokian will think and how they would vote. Then again, such rich elite Bangkokians are just a small fraction of Bangkok’s voting population (I remember somewhere mentioned something like 10,000 families, but cannot be sure). The majority of the voters are the poor and the lower middle-class.

    So I asked a few friends who attended the rally:

    1) a uni-in-Bangkok graduate, went on to complete masters in a US uni. Whole family always voted Democrat.
    Conversation veered into all the evils of Thaksin, conclude will vote Democrat.

    2) secondary school graduate, tailor shop owner.
    Do not want to vote Democrat, but understand potential for unrest because army and xxx will not accept PT victory. Do not want unrest because business is affected and they cannot afford another unrest. Therefore will not vote PT. Believe only way there is stability in the next few years is strong legit DP victory because most of the red shirt will concede while DP will not. Will decide between DP or a third candidate.

    3) only primary school education, a shop assistant at a small roadside chicken rice store
    (This one I must translate rather than summarize because, well, its too short and direct to summarize)
    “What are you (democrat) saying? If Peau Thai wins you will create unrest? So must vote you if we don’t want trouble???”

    ——

  10. CT says:

    I have been to the election already (election outside Thailand), and yes, I have seen the voting paper, and had I intended to vote for Phua Thai (I didn’t), I would have numbered that square and resulted in an invalid vote 🙂

    This is another proof that the current injustice against Thaksin at the moment is so blatant that even myself (who does not even vote for him) feels disgusted with the Queen’s (and her cronies’) attempts to prevent him from being into power in every way, even democratically.

  11. KA says:

    As a farang struggling with learning Thai as a second language, perhaps some our Thai correspondents can help me out:

    1. It seems to me that the honorific unit military title “Raksa Phra Ong” means “Royal Guards”, as in Kong Phon Thahan Rap Thi Nueng Raksa Phra Ong (1st Infantry Division, Royal Guards). What exactly is the Thai for “King’s Guards” and “Queen’s Guards”? Which unit is the Queen’s Guards, and how can we identify them?

    2. If “Kong Thap Bok Thai” means “Royal Thai Army”, which word in “Kong Thap Bok Thai” means “Royal”?

    3. The first Thai Army unit to be deployed to South Vietnam in 1967 was called, in Thai, the “Krom Thahan Asasamak Jong Ang Suek”, which according to my copy of the Mary Haas Thai-English Student’s Dictionary of 1964, should be translated as the King Cobra Volunteer Regiment, but was officially called the Queen’s Cobras Regiment. Can anyone explain the error in my translation?

    Any enlightening comments from Thai native speakers, or more skilled Farang speakers of Thai, would be very much appreciated.

  12. Greg Lopez says:

    Thought I saw Abhisit in the crowd – with a red rose.

  13. David Brown says:

    having read #thaistory helps understand why traditional images are not so popular anymore

    see http://www.zenjournalist.com/

  14. Leah Hoyt says:

    Nice title. Says a lot. I’m waiting for stickers on the the backs of cars.

    Along the same lines, that photo of Thaksin and Yinglak held high is going to get a lot attention. The more traditional image was conspicuous in its absence.

  15. From AFP:

    One of the more benign scenarios is that if the opposition wins by a landslide, it might be able to strike a deal with the army to stay in power while allowing the military top brass to keep their jobs.

    A close poll result could give the army room to intervene in the formation of a government, but a clear victory would make that “much more difficult,” said [Chris] Baker.

  16. CT says:

    @Tarrin said: ” I still firmly believe that the king has been playing the main role in Thailand politic with the Queen and the privy councilors as his fall-man in case something went wrong.

    No, its not as simple as bad Thaksin, bad queen, and succession but rather a much more complex confrontation between the progressive vs conservative; the new and old money; the confrontation between social classes; the breakdown of the hold system. There are so many players and factors.”

    Well, I have finished reading Part I, and I agree with you that it isn’t just the Queen vs Thaksin. In fact I tend to believe that now the Royals and the elites themselves are competing for a power struggle and they are divided into four groups:
    -the Queen, with Prem and Prayuth on her side, planning to raise Dipangkorn to become the next King and that the Queen serves as Regent.
    -Prince V
    -Princess Sirindhorn
    -Finally, some elites in the army who believe that neither the Queen or Prince V will command the full respect of the Thai people, and they plan to play hero and expose both the Queen and Prince V’s dirty secrets, and seize the power…

    …but of course there is the fifth group: the people in Thailand who have woken up from Matrix, and they only want true democracy. Who will win at the end? I don’t know, but I am in the fifth group. That’s for sure.

    It is quite interesting to hear that the King himself is unhappy about these power struggles, and that Sondhi’s act in 2008 where he dismissed Dr.Sumet’s plea from the King to the PAD, “if you love the King, please go home”, is an important political move on the Queen’s part. That the Queen is trying to make it clear (through Sondhi’s daring refusal to the King’s request) to all the elites that her ‘group’ has more power than the King’s group, and that not even the King can order her to stop what she’s doing.

    But that does not mean the King can be excused for not doing anything further to stop the PAD. The King is too afraid that he would fail if he exercises his influence, so he decides not to do anything further to stop the PAD. A real Constitutional Monarch must not stop at that point; he must keep pressing the PAD to stop. And if necessary, he must go by himself to stop them. I still think he has not done enough to stop this mess, and he still should be blamed for it.

  17. Tony says:

    Wikileaks diplomatic cables are just that, cables, letters, regarding the opinion and assessment of US diplomats. Sometimes this information is accurate, and capable of being documented, like 05Bangkok2219 where the US refers to Thaksin as a reliable ally in their pursuit of a US-Thai FTA. You can find many references to this including official United States International Trade Commission documents confirming this. However, EVERYTHING regarding the latest unrest and the Royal Family is as unsubstantiated as it was years ago when many of these rumors started floating around.

    That doesn’t mean that John or Boyce are liars, that means they simply relayed in their cables the rumors on the street back to their superiors in the US. It doesn’t lend any more credence to these rumors – just because they repeated what they’ve heard, regardless of their credibility. Marshall’s story would have had more impact had he actually provided evidence – had he had such evidence, why even use the Wikileaks as the primary subject of his “story?” Why not use them as supporting evidence for irrefutable documentation?

    Marshall, who I personally suspect is politically motivated, would have impressed me if he offered up actual evidence to back up the rumors he is highlighting in this body of work. He hasn’t, worst yet, he is not upfront about how tenuous his work actually is. In fact, he promises to “revolutionize” our understanding of Thailand by simply pointing out people he believe we perceive as credible, repeating the same tired rumors floating about Thai society for years.

    He attempts to simply re-introduce them with what he believes is added authority to give them more weight in the court of public opinion – I read part 1 in its entirety and failed to see any real evidence to back up many of the key accusations the opposition is making, citing Marshall’s work as a reference.

    Such comments as “This confirms what I suspected,” baffle me, because while it is yet more people repeating these rumors, they are simply repeating them and offering no new evidence. They do not do so maliciously, they are simply relaying the “word on the street.” Such word gives you a place to start, but is by no mans evidence in and of itself. It is the equivalent of an “accusation” that requires more research and investigation. Such additional research and investigation, depending on what it turned up, would be worthy of a “Thai Story.”

    Please read my work, search it, scrutinize it, and tear it apart. You will see I am no supporter of the Democrats, or the Thai army. I simply dig for real, irrefutable evidence. My truest belief is that people need to pursue pragmatism, not the political agenda of any party, PTP or Democrats. Pragmatic self-sufficiency liberates the people from ALL forms of tyranny, traditional or new-money.

    Read between the lines and use your brains when you read my work. You will see I am on your side (assuming you truly care about the Thai people and their future.)

  18. Nick Nostitz says:

    “Portman”:

    “I only have minor quibbles such as the use, as in Part 1, of Nick Nostitz a highly partisan red shirt supporter, as a source.”

    Andrew quoted me also in Part 2.

    The other day i was accused by a Thai journalist, who was once part of the PAD, of having been paid by Thaksin, and he cited as the reason for stating this would be because he would know that many foreign journalists are in the pay of Thaksin, and that i would behave the way as if i would be in the pay of Thaksin, and therefore he knows that i am in the pay of Thaksin. And that i am a second rate journalist. And an arsehole.
    Oh, well…

    The problem here with accusing me off being “highly partisan”, and whatever else is that so far none of my facts have been disproved. I have on numerous occasions invited every critic to correct factual mistakes i made, or find important omissions in my work i should consider.
    So far, nil, zilch, nothing, just the same old “he is a Red Shirt supporter”.
    This gets a bit boring.

  19. Thanks for the offer, Ian Baird. I did find your 2009 paper, The Don Sahong Dam: Potential Impacts on Regional Fish Migrations, Livelihoods and Human Health (pdf) at the Polis Project. I appreciate that, and your generous offer to send me a copy of your most recent one. I’ll be happy to post a link to it myself if you do.

    Your point blank ‘explanation’ of the workings of the academic firewall seems quite accurate… I just don’t find that it explains anything. Not unlike the Thai government’s ‘explanations’ of its actions in that respect.

    My email address is jfl at robinlea dot com. Thanks again. And thanks for the good work on the migratory fish of the Mekong that you did in 2009.