Yes you are correct — 30 May 2012 is the date that the democrats and their backers fear most. With capable and experienced politicians like Sudarat, Chaturon, Prommin, Adisorn, and the rest coming back from five-year ban, the democrats don’t stand a chance. Even a coup against them will be suicidal.
However, don’t count on Newin and other turn-coats.
“Wouldn’t it be a lot easier to hire some ex-Mossad agents to “disappear” Thaksin? Then let PT win and govern (thus avoiding a flashpoint for civil protest) and watch as their MPs slowly become like every other MP: petty, selfish, corrupt, bereft of ideals. Without Thaksin, PT becomes like BJT but bigger. Suddenly it’s 1999 again.”
And,, “Backroom deal: Thaksin and the army agree to let PT rule as long as Thaksin waits one year before returning, doesn’t meddle in military appointments, lets them run the South as before, and increases their budget 25%.”
Man, you know politics. That’s how things really roll.
I am not sure if you will agree with me on this one, but it is my perception and belief that one does not have to be criticizing the monarchy to get charged for LM. One only has to be ‘perceived’ by the person who wants to get you in trouble to be saying something he or she deem critical of the monarchy.
I’m certainly agree with you on that one need not to mention monarchy and still can get to jail because of LM. Since the law was there exactly to shut people up, I see no reason why we should keep such a law around.
One point I really do want to make is that people here have been talking about transparency this and that but those conversation only target precisely at politician. To be honest, that’s not enough, any institution that bare great influence on the society must be put under citizen scrutiny, this includes the monarchy, the military, and the judge. Have you ever wonder why we never seems to get rid of corruption but we know so well that it is happening? that’s because there are institutions that shielded those people like Newin from getting prosecuted. That’s why Thailand is falling apart and we need to change it fast.
@Paul “Wondering whether the vandalism of Abhisit’s face in election posters as noted above is a recent occurrence?”
This election is the first time I have seen widespread vandalisation of election posters. In my area, it’s Bhumjai and the “Animal” posters that seem to have suffered most.
Coup De’tat is treason and the instigator is punishable by death in many countries so do you expect people will just sit back like a sheep when that happen?
I think this largely depends on Thaksin’s behaviour, should his party regain a majority. He’s had quite a bit of time to think about ‘what when wrong last time’, and he has made (a few) comments that indicate that he may have learned from past mistakes. If he can respect the bounds of office this time, I think PTP will go a full term without a hitch.
There will be a terrible temptation to try put the military under the thumb for his own protection though. He tried to install relatives before and (if we may interprete an unusually lengthy wait for royal assent followed by a sudden change in government plans as a “no”) failed, although the fate of HM is a wild card this time around and could change everything.
If Thaksin tries to grab the military (sooner), or hasn’t learned from his past mistakes and strives for total domination (later), we are looking at another coup. But I very much doubt that he would be allowed to walk away from that one.
The yellow shirts are pretty much finished thanks to the hijacking of the movement for unrelated (and in my opinion, ridiculous) issues and Sondhi’s alienation of basically everyone. It would take a couple of years of Thaksin at his worst for the movement to build strength to become a significant political force again. I doubt it will happen.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the royal succession though. And my money isn’t on the crown prince.
Sorry – didnt mean to cause confusion I use the name “Steve of Chiang Mai” on other blogs…mainly EPL and the name comes up automatically on Google Chrome . Your subjective first impression and mine are not the same but I dont disagree with your insight on reflection either. However we seem to be agreed on one thing – they are decidedly poor efforts from a marketing perspective.
So The State Dept says: “They are required to obey the laws of both countries. Either country has the right to enforce its laws, particularly if the person later travels there.”
Well what we are seeing is the Thai government applying a law to supress freedom of speech to a person who spoke freely in a country the USA where supression of speech and the legislation of the same is contrary to the constitution.
Surely it should be the US authorities who take the Thai government to court for attempting to apply an illegal law extra-territorialy?
Imagine, you publish a link on a blog to a reasonably accurate historical book published by one of the leading universities in the world. And for this “crime” you are thrown in a hardcore Thai prison for 20 plus years.
It says so much about who is in control of Thailand at the present time, what kind of people they are, what they believe, their intention, their view of the world, their sense of impunity and power. It is not a pretty picture at all, very mai suay, not the image promoted by TAT around the world, not the Land of Smiles and Sabai.
Instead, it is a dark cruel land ruled by dark cruel people clinging to an imagined past, when rulers ruled and the serfs and slaves obeyed, prostrating themselves, grovelling, presenting the backs of their necks for instant execution should their masters be displeased.
Simpkins (#21) should be congratulated for his very good riposte to Somtow why he would NOT vote for Abhisit’s party (No. 10 in the ballots). But then from the cerebral, Simpkins reverses to the instinctive . . . and like SteveCM will now proudly vote with his dickie for No. 5, the pimp Chuvit.
Attaboy Dickie and SteveCM . . . for eloquently elucidating ‘at length’ both your . . . ahem . . . preferences.
It is nice to think about another party other than DP winning.
Personally, I do not think it is a question of ‘what happens if PT wins.” Rather, it is a question of what happens if the unthinkable happens: Democrat Party lose?
(Its also pretty clear what’s going to happen if PT accidentally “wins”)
I know that a lot of discussion here get drag into the evil Thaksin and/or evil Abhisit debate. I am guilty of those too, back firmly by my dislike of all things DP.
But I would like to refocus the issue. From the beginning, the issue was truely never about TRT or Thaksin – both are just convenient scapegoat and boogeyman. That is not saying Thaksin is a good man – no, never that. He’s a business man, and no business man in Thailand gets rich unless he’s deep in the corruption game. He’s an ex-PM, and no PM in Thailand ever get to sit on that chair without paying many someone(s) off.
Let’s not talk about corruption as a deciding factor – face it: they are ALL corrupt, and all politically power hungry. They are politicians. The battlecry “corruption” in Thailand has always been the excuse, never the crucial cause – which is really sad, because corruption ran deep in Thailand. So deep it stinks.
At the heart of Thailand’s civil future is always the forward march of the democratic state side by side with a growing well-educated middle class. As the country grow wealthier, and as communication technology improves, status quo will change. How the polity deals with this change – that is the issue.
Since the aftermath of the Suchinda coup – that opportunity was there – waiting, just waiting for someone to come along to take it up. Many rich technocrats saw it (CP, Shinawatra, you name them) – that opening to change the balance of power from military to technocrats. Who took it, as we know. What happened after, we also know. What is left is how each of us choose to see, or not to see. To accept, or not to accept. To move forward, or to remain stuck in the past gleefully stabbing at a bogeyman. To fight for equal rights, justice, and opportunity for all, or to just sit back and let status quo remain.
This really is Democrat Party’s election to win.
The cards are stack for them. The court is prepared for them. The monies paid, support bought or coerced, favors traded.
But if DP loses? Hell will break lose in the background of M, M,and DP. Now, that’d be interesting to watch.
“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack” -Nattawut
Nothing really ever change among the Red/Black Shirt leadership. Threats and more threats and violent intent and sowing hatred.
I am resigned to the reality of the Red/Black Shirt violent intentions . . . win or lose. Attack if they win. Attack if they lose.
Oh yes . . . Attack if they lose is what Vichai N. said. Because the Red Shirt rhetorics just boil with hatred.
when criticising policies and peoples choices fails then fall back onto the “tactical enemy” created by Sondhi Lim
the military/elites discovered that Thaksin was able to use the authority of the Thai majority to begin a real challenge to the power of the military, the privy council and those standing over the law
now, they are panicking because the Thai majority have wakened and there are many that are not only supporting Thaksin but if and when necessary will take over the same democratic crusade
I think the time has arrived where any overt moves by the military/elites to derail reform are very risky for them
“The risks for the coup-brokers and other decision-makers are potentially overwhelming. Can they even contemplate those risks?”
Well, Nattawut was hinting at the risks in a very recent rally in Udon Thani:
“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack,” he added to waves of applause. “Let’s get this over with and finish the fight. Then we will bring Yingluck back to become prime minister.”
I observe the redshirts very carefully not just by following media but by actually witnessing a big number of their events on site. Personally I consider the risk for a prolonged and vicious civil conflict as being very high.
Here’s a reply I put on Somtow’s web site when he compared Yingluck to Abhisit:
————————————————————————————
Dear Somtow,
I noted your article with interest. I must say I disagree. The Democrat ‘poster’ does not work in any marketing strategy. It tries to fit too much information into one small poster. It says too much. The picture is unrealistic, seemingly obvious that Abhisit is superimposed on a picture of a train. To me, this poster, with good intentions, shows exactly the nature of how the Democrat has run the country in the last 3 years. It tries too hard, and doesn’t deliver; its not simple and direct, which is the message that a poster should be.
Also PT has election posters stating their promises, those usually are writings with a small picture (without any candidate) on top. It’s also been the governing style of mrT, to do, act, fast, direct. Comparing the introduction of Yingluck to a detailed Democrat poster is unfair and selective.
If marketing strategies are microcosms of how they run the country, and if Democrats can’t even set a proper marketing strategy with target audiences in mind, well… then how can they run the country?
I am no fan of Thaksin Rak Thaksin, Palang Potchaman Party, or the late Phuea Thaksin Party: I’m just saying that 3 years of Abhisit has reminded me that there is no real alternative. He has pretty much tried to be “Thaksin-lite”
It’s all a joke, I’m laughing 55555555 get it?
——————————————————————————
So to counter Yingluck’s picture portrait, the Dems come up with another copycat version, one that makes Abhisit look monotonous and redundant!
Then again, that’s how he has run his awesome campaign! #10 will surely win (yea right!)
I myself am voting #5, proudly, and as for the MP leave it blank or go for PUI THAI just to show my frustration at the ELITE!
or maybe I will vote #1 for both sheets since my whole family is going #5!!
The Thai military have done more than 18 coups… what makes you guys think it will be any different this time. Many have died in street protests.. International condemnationis often mute and always ignored.
When the Peau Thai Party wins this next election, my prediction is that all the radical Red Shirts of Thailand will deliberately shed their shirts of red and put on their victory color of: Black Shirts of Thailand. That done, the huge brigade of Black Shirts of Thailand will proceed to welcome their Supremo Thaksin when he arrives at Suvarnabhumi Airport (around November 2011 is Supremo’s promised return date) and welcome the Supremo Thaksin with a 21-gun salvo using their favored M79 grenade launchers of course.
I could just see the fireworks and the coming carnage.
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A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
Roger, # 8
Yes you are correct — 30 May 2012 is the date that the democrats and their backers fear most. With capable and experienced politicians like Sudarat, Chaturon, Prommin, Adisorn, and the rest coming back from five-year ban, the democrats don’t stand a chance. Even a coup against them will be suicidal.
However, don’t count on Newin and other turn-coats.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
WLH,
“Wouldn’t it be a lot easier to hire some ex-Mossad agents to “disappear” Thaksin? Then let PT win and govern (thus avoiding a flashpoint for civil protest) and watch as their MPs slowly become like every other MP: petty, selfish, corrupt, bereft of ideals. Without Thaksin, PT becomes like BJT but bigger. Suddenly it’s 1999 again.”
And,, “Backroom deal: Thaksin and the army agree to let PT rule as long as Thaksin waits one year before returning, doesn’t meddle in military appointments, lets them run the South as before, and increases their budget 25%.”
Man, you know politics. That’s how things really roll.
Keep posting dude.
Thai monarchy and Wikileaks
Nuomi- 87
I am not sure if you will agree with me on this one, but it is my perception and belief that one does not have to be criticizing the monarchy to get charged for LM. One only has to be ‘perceived’ by the person who wants to get you in trouble to be saying something he or she deem critical of the monarchy.
I’m certainly agree with you on that one need not to mention monarchy and still can get to jail because of LM. Since the law was there exactly to shut people up, I see no reason why we should keep such a law around.
One point I really do want to make is that people here have been talking about transparency this and that but those conversation only target precisely at politician. To be honest, that’s not enough, any institution that bare great influence on the society must be put under citizen scrutiny, this includes the monarchy, the military, and the judge. Have you ever wonder why we never seems to get rid of corruption but we know so well that it is happening? that’s because there are institutions that shielded those people like Newin from getting prosecuted. That’s why Thailand is falling apart and we need to change it fast.
Abhisit on the streets
Anyone want to have a go at Chuwit? 🙂
Abhisit on the streets
@Paul “Wondering whether the vandalism of Abhisit’s face in election posters as noted above is a recent occurrence?”
This election is the first time I have seen widespread vandalisation of election posters. In my area, it’s Bhumjai and the “Animal” posters that seem to have suffered most.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
Vichai N – 18
Coup De’tat is treason and the instigator is punishable by death in many countries so do you expect people will just sit back like a sheep when that happen?
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
I think this largely depends on Thaksin’s behaviour, should his party regain a majority. He’s had quite a bit of time to think about ‘what when wrong last time’, and he has made (a few) comments that indicate that he may have learned from past mistakes. If he can respect the bounds of office this time, I think PTP will go a full term without a hitch.
There will be a terrible temptation to try put the military under the thumb for his own protection though. He tried to install relatives before and (if we may interprete an unusually lengthy wait for royal assent followed by a sudden change in government plans as a “no”) failed, although the fate of HM is a wild card this time around and could change everything.
If Thaksin tries to grab the military (sooner), or hasn’t learned from his past mistakes and strives for total domination (later), we are looking at another coup. But I very much doubt that he would be allowed to walk away from that one.
The yellow shirts are pretty much finished thanks to the hijacking of the movement for unrelated (and in my opinion, ridiculous) issues and Sondhi’s alienation of basically everyone. It would take a couple of years of Thaksin at his worst for the movement to build strength to become a significant political force again. I doubt it will happen.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the royal succession though. And my money isn’t on the crown prince.
Abhisit on the streets
@SteveCM
Sorry – didnt mean to cause confusion I use the name “Steve of Chiang Mai” on other blogs…mainly EPL and the name comes up automatically on Google Chrome . Your subjective first impression and mine are not the same but I dont disagree with your insight on reflection either. However we seem to be agreed on one thing – they are decidedly poor efforts from a marketing perspective.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
So The State Dept says: “They are required to obey the laws of both countries. Either country has the right to enforce its laws, particularly if the person later travels there.”
Well what we are seeing is the Thai government applying a law to supress freedom of speech to a person who spoke freely in a country the USA where supression of speech and the legislation of the same is contrary to the constitution.
Surely it should be the US authorities who take the Thai government to court for attempting to apply an illegal law extra-territorialy?
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
Imagine, you publish a link on a blog to a reasonably accurate historical book published by one of the leading universities in the world. And for this “crime” you are thrown in a hardcore Thai prison for 20 plus years.
It says so much about who is in control of Thailand at the present time, what kind of people they are, what they believe, their intention, their view of the world, their sense of impunity and power. It is not a pretty picture at all, very mai suay, not the image promoted by TAT around the world, not the Land of Smiles and Sabai.
Instead, it is a dark cruel land ruled by dark cruel people clinging to an imagined past, when rulers ruled and the serfs and slaves obeyed, prostrating themselves, grovelling, presenting the backs of their necks for instant execution should their masters be displeased.
Abhisit on the streets
Simpkins (#21) should be congratulated for his very good riposte to Somtow why he would NOT vote for Abhisit’s party (No. 10 in the ballots). But then from the cerebral, Simpkins reverses to the instinctive . . . and like SteveCM will now proudly vote with his dickie for No. 5, the pimp Chuvit.
Attaboy Dickie and SteveCM . . . for eloquently elucidating ‘at length’ both your . . . ahem . . . preferences.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
-р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕гр╕░р╕Ър╕╕р╕Кр╕╖р╣Ир╕н- So, you’re ok with him getting a life sentence for posting a link?
Watch how you torrent then, you’ll get x2 times as much!
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
It is nice to think about another party other than DP winning.
Personally, I do not think it is a question of ‘what happens if PT wins.” Rather, it is a question of what happens if the unthinkable happens: Democrat Party lose?
(Its also pretty clear what’s going to happen if PT accidentally “wins”)
I know that a lot of discussion here get drag into the evil Thaksin and/or evil Abhisit debate. I am guilty of those too, back firmly by my dislike of all things DP.
But I would like to refocus the issue. From the beginning, the issue was truely never about TRT or Thaksin – both are just convenient scapegoat and boogeyman. That is not saying Thaksin is a good man – no, never that. He’s a business man, and no business man in Thailand gets rich unless he’s deep in the corruption game. He’s an ex-PM, and no PM in Thailand ever get to sit on that chair without paying many someone(s) off.
Let’s not talk about corruption as a deciding factor – face it: they are ALL corrupt, and all politically power hungry. They are politicians. The battlecry “corruption” in Thailand has always been the excuse, never the crucial cause – which is really sad, because corruption ran deep in Thailand. So deep it stinks.
At the heart of Thailand’s civil future is always the forward march of the democratic state side by side with a growing well-educated middle class. As the country grow wealthier, and as communication technology improves, status quo will change. How the polity deals with this change – that is the issue.
Since the aftermath of the Suchinda coup – that opportunity was there – waiting, just waiting for someone to come along to take it up. Many rich technocrats saw it (CP, Shinawatra, you name them) – that opening to change the balance of power from military to technocrats. Who took it, as we know. What happened after, we also know. What is left is how each of us choose to see, or not to see. To accept, or not to accept. To move forward, or to remain stuck in the past gleefully stabbing at a bogeyman. To fight for equal rights, justice, and opportunity for all, or to just sit back and let status quo remain.
This really is Democrat Party’s election to win.
The cards are stack for them. The court is prepared for them. The monies paid, support bought or coerced, favors traded.
But if DP loses? Hell will break lose in the background of M, M,and DP. Now, that’d be interesting to watch.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack” -Nattawut
Nothing really ever change among the Red/Black Shirt leadership. Threats and more threats and violent intent and sowing hatred.
I am resigned to the reality of the Red/Black Shirt violent intentions . . . win or lose. Attack if they win. Attack if they lose.
Oh yes . . . Attack if they lose is what Vichai N. said. Because the Red Shirt rhetorics just boil with hatred.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
nice to see the “anti-Thaksin” crowd out in force
when criticising policies and peoples choices fails then fall back onto the “tactical enemy” created by Sondhi Lim
the military/elites discovered that Thaksin was able to use the authority of the Thai majority to begin a real challenge to the power of the military, the privy council and those standing over the law
now, they are panicking because the Thai majority have wakened and there are many that are not only supporting Thaksin but if and when necessary will take over the same democratic crusade
I think the time has arrived where any overt moves by the military/elites to derail reform are very risky for them
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
Almost of Thai People has known what happen in Thailand.
For a half of century, Thai people are under royal propaganda and one side communication by the royal media.
But after coup in 2006, they saw the mistaken royal activities which against democracy and their loved-government (who won the election in 2004 )
When Abhisit dissolved the parliament, Taksin’s supporters and The Red Shirt thought they can win next election again.
But they have to face the real absolute power groups in Thailand.
At least, we only pray for them. for Thai people.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
“The risks for the coup-brokers and other decision-makers are potentially overwhelming. Can they even contemplate those risks?”
Well, Nattawut was hinting at the risks in a very recent rally in Udon Thani:
“If Puea Thai wins and they don’t let us form a government, Yingluck should rest first. Brothers and sisters, you come out,” veteran red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua told a recent rally of about 30,000 supporters in Udon Thani. “Attack. Attack,” he added to waves of applause. “Let’s get this over with and finish the fight. Then we will bring Yingluck back to become prime minister.”
I observe the redshirts very carefully not just by following media but by actually witnessing a big number of their events on site. Personally I consider the risk for a prolonged and vicious civil conflict as being very high.
Abhisit on the streets
Here’s a reply I put on Somtow’s web site when he compared Yingluck to Abhisit:
————————————————————————————
Dear Somtow,
I noted your article with interest. I must say I disagree. The Democrat ‘poster’ does not work in any marketing strategy. It tries to fit too much information into one small poster. It says too much. The picture is unrealistic, seemingly obvious that Abhisit is superimposed on a picture of a train. To me, this poster, with good intentions, shows exactly the nature of how the Democrat has run the country in the last 3 years. It tries too hard, and doesn’t deliver; its not simple and direct, which is the message that a poster should be.
Also PT has election posters stating their promises, those usually are writings with a small picture (without any candidate) on top. It’s also been the governing style of mrT, to do, act, fast, direct. Comparing the introduction of Yingluck to a detailed Democrat poster is unfair and selective.
If marketing strategies are microcosms of how they run the country, and if Democrats can’t even set a proper marketing strategy with target audiences in mind, well… then how can they run the country?
I am no fan of Thaksin Rak Thaksin, Palang Potchaman Party, or the late Phuea Thaksin Party: I’m just saying that 3 years of Abhisit has reminded me that there is no real alternative. He has pretty much tried to be “Thaksin-lite”
It’s all a joke, I’m laughing 55555555 get it?
——————————————————————————
So to counter Yingluck’s picture portrait, the Dems come up with another copycat version, one that makes Abhisit look monotonous and redundant!
Then again, that’s how he has run his awesome campaign! #10 will surely win (yea right!)
I myself am voting #5, proudly, and as for the MP leave it blank or go for PUI THAI just to show my frustration at the ELITE!
or maybe I will vote #1 for both sheets since my whole family is going #5!!
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
The Thai military have done more than 18 coups… what makes you guys think it will be any different this time. Many have died in street protests.. International condemnationis often mute and always ignored.
A Pheua Thai win? But then what?
When the Peau Thai Party wins this next election, my prediction is that all the radical Red Shirts of Thailand will deliberately shed their shirts of red and put on their victory color of: Black Shirts of Thailand. That done, the huge brigade of Black Shirts of Thailand will proceed to welcome their Supremo Thaksin when he arrives at Suvarnabhumi Airport (around November 2011 is Supremo’s promised return date) and welcome the Supremo Thaksin with a 21-gun salvo using their favored M79 grenade launchers of course.
I could just see the fireworks and the coming carnage.