Comments

  1. James says:

    LesAbbey: “That’s why Weng was having to say that the killing of the drug dealers was a good thing.” Did he really say this? Still if you think Thailand needs change but don’t like the UDD or Thaksin, there’s always Sombat… a red shirt perhaps, but not part of DAAD as Thida herself made clear. You have to admit, if you’re a red shirt sympathizer who supports true democracy, from a strategic point of view, the jailing of the red leaders has only been a positive thing. It gives space to people like Sombat, whereas before it really was just a top-down stage show, dominated by the three fools…

  2. Mahamekian says:

    I wonder how happy are the Thais who just lost 3 days income owing to closure of bars and pubs over the weekend? My taxi driver on Friday evening certainly wasn’t very happy about the situation. Perhaps a “taxi driver grumble index” would be a more accurate measure?

  3. Neverfree says:

    It does rather cheapen one’s argument when someone in your own ‘party’ comes along and tries to condone a corrupt uniformed conniver in mass summary justice. The trouble with the Wengs of Thailand will always be that they are too lazy to form a party that doesn’t depend on the money of rich sponsors. They sold out big time years ago, and so deserve no respect.

  4. Tarrin says:

    LesAbbey – 72

    The problem many good people who support the UDD have is that it’s impossible to split the red shirts from Thaksin.

    It is so because you believed so. I think there’s no way to convince you to believed otherwise that UDD now is much more than Thaksin (although I’m not argue that a large part of UDD still love and cherish Thaksin).

    You have been saying this since ages ago, but was that deterred people away from the UDD? of cause not, you can see that there are more people from BKK that actually joining the UDD now. If what you said is true then we have to see a dwindling number not the other way around.

  5. LesAbbey says:

    Tom Hoy – 68

    Were these bodies real enough for you, LesAbbey? And who supplied them?

    Tom you are asking the wrong person. You should ask Thaksin and his lawyers whether they are happier with the 2010 results than those in 2009.

    Albert Park – 69

    LA: Simplification or inaccurate, Veera’s out on bail.

    Albert, my apologies as my old brain is beginning to obviously drop pieces of my memory. Maybe it’s time for me to become a politician. Still maybe one day Veera will tell us why he left the protest early. Or do you think he is going to to become a prosecution witness against the others?

    Tukkae – 70

    So I see not even a difference between then and now in rhetoric as Nick does.

    Up until Thaksin was elected the insurgency was still at a low level and there were meetings going on between the military and the southern Thai Muslim elders.

    Deaths are not rhetoric Tukkae. That the numbers of deaths and injuries went up after Thaksin made defeating the insurgency one of his main projects I suspect can’t be argued against.

    Nick Nostitz – 66

    The problem many good people who support the UDD have is that it’s impossible to split the red shirts from Thaksin. The problem that leaves those supporters is that as time goes on, more and more often they have to make excuses for Thaksin’s actions. That’s why Weng was having to say that the killing of the drug dealers was a good thing and that’s why others are trying to disassociate Thaksin from the army actions in the South. It doesn’t work because it’s all on record and in in peoples, albeit weak for some of us, memory.

  6. Albert Park says:

    LesAbbey says: “I always had the feeling we that he saw the south as his version of the Bush/Blair Second Gulf War. (If my memory serves me right I think he made this comparison himself. Maybe someone else can confirm this?) The previous policy was very much based on Prem’s talk-talk approach while Thaksin went for a more shoot-shoot one.”

    Can anyone confirm this as accurate for “Prem approach”? I have an incomplete set of newspaper files for the [eriod but there are some times when there was a heck of a lot going on pre-Thaksin. e.g. 1993-4 seems to have seen many incidents. Bangkok Post Weekly Review for 1 Oct 93 lists 43 “incidents” between 1 Aug and 7 Sep 1993, including a coordinated burning of schools.

  7. Somsak Jeamteerasakul says:

    Re: chris beale #60

    Nick – and the others talking in support of increasing evidence many Red Shirts are becoming more anti-monarchy – where do you see their political position going ?

    Obviously the South (except perhaps Pattani), and non-Red areas of Bangkok, and much of the Central Plains, are unlikely to support a republic.

    I don’t think anti-monarchy feeling among Red Shirts equals support for republic – not yet anyway. This, among many reasons, is why the regime’s allegation of an “overthrow the monarchy network” (р╣Ар╕Др╕гр╕╖р╕нр╕Вр╣Ир╕▓р╕вр╕ер╣Йр╕бр╣Ар╕Ир╣Йр╕▓) is bogus. As Nick indicates, there are many shades of this anti-monarchy feeling. I suspect that perhaps the vast majority of those expressing such sentiment would be quite content with having the sort of monarchy in UK or Japan. But for the present regime, any desire for change to the current role, status and power of the monarchy, no matter how small, no matter that the desired change would not end the institution of the monarchy, are unacceptable. In other words, the regime wouldn’t bend at all on this issue. This can only force those who desire for change to turn to more and more radical solution: witness the great popularity of “underground” (foreign-based) radio programs that attack the monarchy outright among the Red Shirsts.

    The situations are, one could say, very much in flux at the moment.

  8. tukkae says:

    Concerning

    Prem’s talk-talk approach

    I remember only one some hard talk from him during the early stage of the insurgency that any kind of autonomy and the use of the local Yawi dialect as official languagea is “inappropriate”.

    What didn’t change in all the years was hollow talking by military commanders about winning the “hearts and minds” of the local populace as their prime task. So I see not even a difference between then and now in rhetoric as Nick does.

  9. Non-ngong Na Malai says:

    If the Thai people’s happiness is linked to the king’s birthday season, then it would be likely to be short-lived.

  10. Albert Park says:

    LA: Simplification or inaccurate, Veera’s out on bail.

  11. tom hoy says:

    “Because the 2009 protest had failed to produce hundreds of bodies for Thaksin’s propaganda machine, although some tried to have virtual bodies on this blog, it seemed that this year bodies were demanded and were supplied.”

    Were these bodies real enough for you, LesAbbey? And who supplied them?

  12. It's Martino says:

    The leader of Burma’s military junta considered making a $1bn (┬г634m) bid to buy Manchester United football club around the time it was facing rising anger from the United Nations over its “unacceptably slow” response to cyclone Nargis.Than Shwe, commander in chief of the armed forces and a fan of United, was urged to mount a takeover bid by his grandson, according to a cable from the US embassy in Rangoon. It details how the regime was thought to be using football to distract its population from ongoing political and economic problems.

    ………….

    The cable revealed that in January 2009, selected Burmese business people were told “that Than Shwe had ‘chosen’ them to be the owners of the new professional soccer teams. [The informant, a top executive at one of the sponsor companies] said the owners are responsible for paying all costs, including team salaries, housing and transportation, uniform costs, and advertising for the new league. In addition, owners must build new stadiums in their respective regions by 2011, at an estimated cost of $1m per stadium.”

    ………….

    But according to the dispatch, “many Burmese businessmen speculate the regime is using it as a way to distract the populace from ongoing political and economic problems or to divert their attention from criticism of the upcoming 2010 elections”.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/06/wikileaks-burma-manchester-united-takeover

  13. Sunshine says:

    Just out of curiousity.. why the increase for 2011?
    According to http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/08/20/politics/Pheu-Thai-attacks-Bt170-bn-defence-budget-30136241.html the current figure is 1.5%. Not almost 2% as your chart indicates.
    Please clarify.

  14. Polly says:

    Sample fails bacause a longitudinal study is used. “The index is based on responses from 4,363 people in 22 provinces collected between April 20 and last Saturday.”

  15. LesAbbey says:

    Nick Nostitz – 66

    Nick I know you don’t like simplifications but when we look at the security situation in the south it’s very hard not to draw the line between the pre-Thaksin elected and the post-Thaksin elected periods. I always had the feeling we that he saw the south as his version of the Bush/Blair Second Gulf War. (If my memory serves me right I think he made this comparison himself. Maybe someone else can confirm this?) The previous policy was very much based on Prem’s talk-talk approach while Thaksin went for a more shoot-shoot one.

    Regarding the ethnic differences between Malay Muslims in the south and Muslims in the Bangkok I did try and explain that in my comment #54.

    …having incarcerated almost all of the moderate leaders, or driven them out of Thailand.

    Nick please allow me a wry smile at that statement. It took me a while to figure out who you were talking about. I think I understand you mean the likes Jataporn, Nattawut, Weng, Arisman, Veera and so on. I guess you could argue these are moderate politically relative to some of the left who support the UDD.

    Funny enough for me those on left who see it as a class struggle are far more moderate than the first and second generation UDD leadership who were really running on blood-lust for much of this year’s protest. Because the 2009 protest had failed to produce hundreds of bodies for Thaksin’s propaganda machine, although some tried to have virtual bodies on this blog, it seemed that this year bodies were demanded and were supplied.

    I guess we could say Veera showed some moderation by leaving the protest early so maybe he is the one we should push to be released as a moderate.

  16. jud says:
  17. jud says:

    Burma Report;Finding Dollars, Sense, and Legitimacy in Burma
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/44704754/Burma-Report-Finding-Dollars-Sense-and-Legitimacy-in-Burma

  18. Nick Nostitz says:

    “LesAbbey”

    I did not research in any depth the reasons why many Minburi Muslims support the Red Shirts. The Muslim voice in Thailand though is not a unified voice in matters of politics. Muslims of the three provinces are of a different ethnic background than Muslims in other provinces and Bangkok, and speak a different language, for example. Therefore there is not much support at all for their insurgency in other Muslim communities in Thailand.
    As to Thaksin’s alleged “hardline approach” vs. the post Thaksin approach of the military in the deep south – the difference lies only in the rhetoric, not in the actions on the ground. The military now is as hardline now, if not more so, than under Thaksin. Don’t forget that for example the Krue Sae killings happened against the explicit orders of the Thaksin government.
    Even down South the Muslim voice is not unified at all. You have insurgents, supporters of the insurgency, opponents of the insurgency, and Muslims who actively fight against the insurgency. I have spent time with a group of Muslim Chor Lor Bor who live in their village in a sort of siege, and who had several battles with the insurgents. I have also spent time with the newly founded Ranger companies which have both Buddhists and Muslims.

    “chris beale”:

    It is quite difficult to answer regarding region. The central plains have both a large amount of Reds and people who support the state. But also in Isaarn and the North you have many who support the state. We can’t easily quantify the anti-monarchy feelings, but i feel it is at this moment also too early to pin-point exact ideologies there. There are many shades existing, and many different groups, and things are in a process of development. The range is quite wide, from people inspired by pure disappointment up to calls for a radical system change, from rejection of some personalities up to rejection of the whole system.
    What counts today may quite easily not be valid tomorrow. This is a process that one has to watch closely, and see where it goes. One also has to watch the answer of the state towards these developments, and how those two positions correlate, influence each other and shift.

    One thing that is clearly seen is that the UDD leadership here in Thailand is equally uncomfortable with these developments. When the acting central committee held their press conference, Thida Thawornset has clearly pointed out that the demands of the UDD are a Democratic system with the King as the head of state. It remains to be seen if Thida is able to control the majority of protesters, or if things have in the months of a leadership vacuum developed beyond their control.
    One thing i am convinced of is that the state has done itself a huge disservice of having incarcerated almost all of the moderate leaders, or driven them out of Thailand. They mistakenly thought again that by deriving the Red Shirts of a leadership, ordinary Red Shirts would just fade away. Which they haven’t, as we can clearly see when following events on the ground. Just because the media does not give the Red Shirts the light of day does not mean that they have not been very active after the first shock wore off.

  19. chris beale says:

    Congratulations to the ruling party in Lao PDR – and all the Lao people.
    Certainly YOUR “time is coming ” – and for Isaarn Issara also !

  20. Suzie Wong says:

    “Lao people have finally become the true owners of their nation” – Vientiane Times, 20.11.2010
    the successfully achieved goals of Vientiane, the hok so or six s’s: so-saad (cleanliness), so-sikhiau (green – i.e. parks, trees), so-sagnop (peacefulness in the sense of no crimes), so-sivilai (civilisation, prosperity), so-sawaang-sawai (illumination) and so-sanae (charming).

    It seems to me the mood of Thai people is just the opposite from the Laos counterpart. There is a website named, р╕Ър╣Йр╕▓р╕Щр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╣Гр╕Кр╣Ир╕Вр╕нр╕Зр╣Ар╕гр╕▓ “The Thai nation is not ours” — by Chupit at Prachatai

    While Vientiane achieved the hok so, Bangkok’s situation is just the opposite: so- sokrapok р╕кр╕Бр╕Ыр╕гр╕Б (dirty), so-sidam р╕кр╕╡р╕Фр╣Нр╕▓ (black –i.e. pollution), so- mai sangop р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕кр╕Зр╕Ъ (non-peacefulness in the sense of full of crimes), so- mai sivilai р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕ир╕┤р╕зр╕┤р╣Др╕ер╕кр╣М (lack of civilization, lack of liberty, instability), so- mudmon р╕бр╕╖р╕Фр╕бр╕Щ (darkness, sadness, fathers were put in jails), and so- rai sanae р╣Др╕гр╣Йр╣Ар╕кр╕Щр╣Ир╕лр╣М (not charming, can’t be trusted, lies).