Before this descends into another punching-bag discussion on LM reform, let’s consider the more pragmatic angles behind the story. General W may or may not be a royalist reactionary, but what seems certain is the police force has a lot to lose if the “tomato” image sticks.
Just as the army wants to fight its “enemy of the people” post-May image by, among other things, playing up their king-loving creds and posing for relief-ops photos in flooded towns, the police should similarly be expected to hack out some crude PR whenever the microphone is on.
Furthermore, General W may be sending an internal message to the tomatoes in his own garden to not get political, and stick to the usual job of minimal law enforcement and protecting the company assets.
Or maybe I’m missing the forest for the trees and darker days for free speech lie ahead. Hope not.
The heroin in this story could be direct from Burma’s Golden Triangle through middlemen or masterminds in Singapore. Once the case is in the court the details will come out later.
Now Singapore has at least 70-80,000 strong Burmese community and many of them have become Singapore citizens and some filthy rich ones among them are the close relatives of well-known opium warlords like Law-sit-han and Khun-sa.
We should spread the words about the horror of civial wars, because i see this as a realistic threat for many countries even or especially in the downfalling west.
US Teabaggers with their common wish for civial war against Brainwashington reminds me a lot of the yellow shirts who wanted this in May.
Please do not miss the 2011 Pangsau Pass Winter Festival this year on the 20th, 21st & 22nd January and the car rally to meet at Dibrugarh on 20th January, 2011.
Nigel & Les: Rather than UDD, wouldn’t the PAD be a (slightly) more appropriate comparison to the Tea Party?
Or just maybe either. At times it seems like a war between two lots of Thai-Chinese businessmen, CP against the Shinawatra group. You can find the Astroturf likeness in both.
This may happen in the current Thai case – if Thailand’s military eg. attacked Cambodia, and were defeated. Such an attack could come about as a result of over-confidence on the part of the Thai ruling class military/ aristocratic elite : currently they seem very self-confident – eg. the LM crackdown, Ratchaprasong massacre.
Are you comparing a few thousand unarmed peaceful protesters with the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (~100,000 military personnel, with a ~$160,000,000 budget)? Even if we concede the fact the Red Shirts had a few hundred rifles and a tiny paramilitary force, it’s a bit of a stretch don’t you think?
But you are correct in your analogy, in one important way. The Royal Thai Armed Forces (~600,000 military personnel, ~$6,000,000,000 budget) have an equal chance of losing against protesters or the Cambodian military. In percentage terms, 0%.
The Royal Thai Army is a powerful, powerful tiger. It cannot be broken, it must be tamed.
The younger officers currently seem quite restless indeed – they know they could win huge popularity if they overthrew their seniors. Hence Defence Minister Prawit’s warning just last Friday against younger soldiers posting LM offences on the internet.
LM is a ridiculous law with which to charge your citizens. It can only create resentment. It’s self-defeating.
But an organisation of 600,000 personnel being reminded via internal memo that they should not post offensive material onto the Internet about their CEO…is somehow evidence that the organisation is ripe for mutiny?
I would think sheer ambition presents the eternal threat of mutiny in a divided society. That, and maybe their B9000/month salary. Which is ridiculous considering Thailand’s budget (both military and welfare expenditures in the trillions of baht).
I run a medium-sized business. I would not ask my management team to bother my employees with such a memo. But if they were posting offensive material about me onto the Internet, my first concern would be to determine what complaints they had. If they were unable to give a reason beyond “we don’t like being told what to do”, I would not criticise my management team for reminding them that such behaviour is inappropriate.
Thailand’s military is big business. And the corporation’s name is The Royal Thai Armed Forces. Unless their Commander-in-Chief has done something to the soldier, what is the reason for the posting of offensive content? In most military cultures around the world, that behaviour would result in a court-martial or worse. In most large commercial organisations, that behaviour would result in termination of employment or worse.
I feel it’s safe to say that the all-powerful Thai Army doesn’t really feel threatened, if they’re merely responding with a reminder memo to soldiers not to break the law. A stupid law. But only one of many stupid laws in Thailand and in the world.
How would international business view opportunities in Thailand shold a revolution occurs?
Depends on the business. Large Multinational Corps (Trans-national corps as they like to be called now) would not be too bothered, but small and medium businesses would probably view it as unacceptable risk for the first few years. If stability is maintained, then it will be back to business as usual.
The thing that actually stops businesses from investing in any country, a far as I can tell, it the application of sanction by their (the business) home country.
Businesses exist to make money. It is just a matter of risk reward. Some business owners – particularly public corps, with professional managers simply have larger risk appetites.
Small correction required. Whilst nothing is ever really a zero-sum game outside of theoretical mathematics, of course I meant to say that “it is a zero-sum game”. And very much so; the economic opportunity that arises from chaos is not productive, though it’s often produced. One party’s gain from the chaos of revolution in Thailand will be another party’s loss.
Divide and conquer. Sun Tzu, Julius Caesar and Machiavelli would no doubt mock my sentimentalism at seeing Thais fighting Thais on the streets of Bangkok. One side earning B9000 / month to do the job the police earning B90000 / month refused to do. A job fighting (and killing) their brothers (and sisters) from Isan, who for their part, were undeniably being driven forward by either a billionaire tycoon and / or even more shady and (quite substantively un-Thai) forces.
Upon perusal of this interesting discussion portal, I note many are of the opinion it’s a spontaneous social upheaval. I’m not so certain that is the case. Or perhaps it’s only part of the picture. The government is proposing a Welfare State, “cradle-to-grave” cover for each and every one of 65 million Thais. But that is not what they desire. They are fighting for something, or someone, else. Just what – exactly – it’s quite difficult to determine.
In addition, I don’t see any concern about leftist stance amount some Red since none of the prominent red leaders shows any anti-capitalism stance.
You will forgive my laughter, but I assure you it is merely gallows humour.
Mr Tarrin, there are some very capitalist organisations who would vehemently disagree with your claim. You can find their opinions on the front pages of Bangkok dailies printed in April / May 2010 where their demands (approaching screams as weeks dragged on whilst their position was ignored by the government) that PM Abhisit either send in the Army to forcibly remove the Red Shirts or resign. I assure you the capitalist owners of Bangkok’s altars to Mammon (the owners of the Central World mega-mall spring to mind) would gladly have traded the lives of every Red Shirt protester commandeering their building if it meant commerce could immediately be restored. $ makes the world go round. Human lives are merely expendable capital.
Mr Tarrin may not be aware of the link between commerce and capitalism. But I assure him that there is one. The Red Shirt protests undeniably targeted the former. It is worth noting the Yellow Shirt hijacking of Suvarnabhumi airport was undeniably driven by identical motivations. Both the UDD and PAD are ideologically-driven protest groups. Revolutionist (arguably republican) v Nationalist (undeniably monarchist). Keen observers will have noted the PAD are now planning a protest against the Abhisit government for honouring a memorandum of understanding with Cambodia signed by the Thaksin government in 2000.
The UDD and the PAD have both shown they are willing to damage the economy for their political aims. I would argue both organisations have acted unconscionably. Both claiming to hold the national interest, whilst each simultaneously sacrifices the national interest when they damage it (quite intentionally) in protest.
Mr Tarrin, I am also acquainted with a Goldman Sachs executive based in Singapore. I doubt our acquaintances are mutual, however. I also doubt you have represented the opinion of your acquaintance accurately – if, indeed, you have represented the existence of an acquaintance accurately.
For a revolution – especially a hard left one – to be successful there has to be, as Lenin pointed out, a serious breakdown within the State, so that the ruling class loses self-confidence “as a class in its’ self, and for its’ self” (in Marx’s famous phrase).
The State apparatus has to be severely fractured/ broken – this has usually meant defeat in war (eg. Tsarist Russia, Imperial / Republican China, Vietnam, the Portuguese in Africa, etc.).
This may happen in the current Thai case – if Thailand’s military eg. attacked Cambodia, and were defeated.
Such an attack could come about as a result of over-confidence on the part of the Thai ruling class military/ aristocratic elite : currently they seem very self-confident – eg. the LM crackdown, Ratchaprasong massacre.
However, I think it is far more likely that any major change will come in that very Thai way – through yet another coup.
The younger officers currently seem quite restless indeed – they know they could win huge popularity if they overthrew their seniors. Hence Defence Minister Prawit’s warning just last Friday against younger soldiers posting LM offences on the internet.
What do New Mandala readers think? Are “international business circles” genuinely worried about Thailand’s current condition and future prospects? Or, to invert this question, would they be far more worried if the more leftist Reds looked like they were developing seriously revolutionary potential?
Having scaled down my personal exposure following the violent Songkran riots of last year, I admit to feeling a sense of vindication of my decision as I watched the tragic, violent riots in Bangkok this year. As Thailand’s economy recovered so extraordinarily well as the 09/10 FY wore on, I felt I had foolishly overreacted.
Whether or not the government is able to juggle the complexity handling an internal crisis whilst subjected to an international media largely disinterested in objectivity when it comes to reporting the UDD provocation, will be the final determinant for whether my tentative withdrawal in 2009 (now heavily supported by my network of colleagues circa June 2010) was overly cautious or rather prudent.
I don’t think any current investor with interests in Thailand would look upon the violence instigated by the UDD this year in a positive light. But I concede there are many of my colleagues who are viewing the situation with great interest, as violence and instability creates opportunity. I assure you that no one I would call a friend is contributing to the instability – at least, not that I am aware of. Of course, only a naive fool would believe that kind of ‘support’ does not exist for the UDD. I have friends who believe the peculiar disinterest in objective reporting is a result of this; but I disagree. I suspect the disparity between reality and the media reports is merely a consideration of sensationalism, as it relates to fabrication of a ‘story’ that ‘sells’ to viewers.
Though I cannot speak for the entire “business community”, I cannot imagine anyone finding fault with my claim that the community is quite concerned about the current levels of revolutionary sentiment. Regardless of your political persuasion, a leftist uprising rarely bodes well for existing enterprise – though it often bodes well for prospective enterprise (at least in the short or medium timeframe – anything after that is subject to debate).
To your second question, the answer to which I have likely already hinted at, I would fork out a great deal of ┬г to listen to a colleague making an argument in support of violent uprising and chaos. It would likely be a rather entertaining argument.
And it would only be made by those who stand to gain from that disarray.
Commerce relies upon stability and rule of law. Opportunity exists when stability and rule of law is abrogated. But it is not a zero-sum game, unfortunately. The success of those who stand to gain from social upheaval in the form of revolution, is arrived at via the direct expense of existing stakeholders.
I would be a great deal wealthier were I not restricted by sentimentalist considerations. The opportunities to profit in the aftermath of destruction are undeniably there. And – quite unfortunately for existing investors – far too attractive for some of my colleagues to resist the temptation to ‘assist’ in the ‘revolution’.
That is the logic which fuelled my decision to limit my exposure. Of course, it’s sentiment like this which is – ironically, if unavoidably – costly for the Thai economy. And whether the existing regime or the revolutionaries fly their flag at the end of the day, the Thai economy will wear the economic scars of their battle.
That’s an interesting comparison that I hadn’t thought of, the UDD and America’s Tea Party. Who would be our Sarah Palin? I suspect Nattawut and Jataporn are more intelligent so it would have to be Chalerm. What would the Thai equivalent of an Astroturf movement be? Maybe a eucalyptus movement?
There’s no reason why the business world should fear a UDD revolution, other than for the fact that it will continue the current crony-capitalist system at the expense of a genuine free market (in so far as such a thing exists). An interesting article in the Guardian newspaper by George Monbiot I read recently coined the phrase Astroturf movement ( as opposed to a grassroots movement) to describe the Tea Party in America. His point was that the whole thing was, in a sense, artificial as it was being financed and manipulated by big business. Does this ring a bell with anyone following events in Thailand?
Farmer Vichai: Yesterday I was self-sufficient. But today garlic and fruits coming from China are being sold at the markets 60% of my price. So today my income from my farm had been cut by nearly in half and I am no longer self-sufficient.
Employee Vichai: Yesterday I was self-sufficient and factory was doing healthy export business. But today several factories at Vietnam and Indonesia are selling our factories products with better quality and at lower prices. Tomorrow my factory will be closed, my self-sufficiency and self-respect gone.
Self-sufficiency is an illusion and it is never lasting nor permanent.
Can another Thai language reader/translator check my translation, please? Dictionaries were not overly helpful.
Thanks.
Frank
р╣Ар╕Др╕гр╕╖р╣Ир╕нр╕Зр╕лр╕бр╕▓р╕вр╕гр╕▓р╕Кр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Бр╕лр╣Ир╕Зр╕кр╕│р╕Щр╕▒р╕Бр╕Зр╕▓р╕Щр╕Хр╕│р╕гр╕зр╕Ир╣Бр╕лр╣Ир╕Зр╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕Юр╕гр╕░р╣Бр╕кр╕Зр╕Фр╕▓р╕Ър╣Ар╕Вр╕Щр╣Бр╕ер╕░р╣Вр╕ер╣И р╕Лр╕╢р╣Ир╕Зр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕зр╕Зр╕Бр╕ер╕бр╣Ар╕кр╣Йр╕Щр╕Др╕╣р╣Ир╕кр╕нр╕Зр╕Кр╕▒р╣Йр╕Щ р╕зр╕Зр╕Щр╕нр╕Бр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╕Юр╕гр╕гр╕Ур╕Юр╕др╕Бр╕йр╕▓ р╕зр╕Зр╣Гр╕Щр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╣Гр╕Ър╣Ар╕Чр╕ир╕Ьр╕╣р╕Бр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕лр╕Щр╣Йр╕▓р╕кр╕┤р╕Зр╕лр╣М (р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕Ир╕│р╕Бр╕▒р╕Фр╕кр╕╡р╣Бр╕ер╕░р╕Вр╕Щр╕▓р╕Ф
National government symbol – Royal Thai Police, comprising a sword and round shield with paired raised circles. The outer circle is in the form of a tree, the inner circle in the form of sermon leaves bound together to form the face of a lion (no limitation on size or color).
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Priority number one
Before this descends into another punching-bag discussion on LM reform, let’s consider the more pragmatic angles behind the story. General W may or may not be a royalist reactionary, but what seems certain is the police force has a lot to lose if the “tomato” image sticks.
Just as the army wants to fight its “enemy of the people” post-May image by, among other things, playing up their king-loving creds and posing for relief-ops photos in flooded towns, the police should similarly be expected to hack out some crude PR whenever the microphone is on.
Furthermore, General W may be sending an internal message to the tomatoes in his own garden to not get political, and stick to the usual job of minimal law enforcement and protecting the company assets.
Or maybe I’m missing the forest for the trees and darker days for free speech lie ahead. Hope not.
Once a Jolly Hangman: Singapore Justice in the Dock
The heroin in this story could be direct from Burma’s Golden Triangle through middlemen or masterminds in Singapore. Once the case is in the court the details will come out later.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/latest/a/-/latest/8235092/mother-and-son-held-in-400m-drug-bust/
Now Singapore has at least 70-80,000 strong Burmese community and many of them have become Singapore citizens and some filthy rich ones among them are the close relatives of well-known opium warlords like Law-sit-han and Khun-sa.
Brother against brother, friend against friend
We should spread the words about the horror of civial wars, because i see this as a realistic threat for many countries even or especially in the downfalling west.
US Teabaggers with their common wish for civial war against Brainwashington reminds me a lot of the yellow shirts who wanted this in May.
Review of Nattawut Saikua biography
Vichai, I believe you’ve come off the worst in this discussion. From now on, I will take everything with a grain of salt. No…. 10 grains.
The Stilwell Road
Please do not miss the 2011 Pangsau Pass Winter Festival this year on the 20th, 21st & 22nd January and the car rally to meet at Dibrugarh on 20th January, 2011.
Thailand’s monarchy and divisiveness
р╕лр╕Щр╣Йр╕▓ 30
р╕Др╕бр╕Др╕│
р╕Юр╕е.р╕н.р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕вр╕╕р╕Чр╕Шр╣М р╕Ир╕▒р╕Щр╕Чр╕гр╣Мр╣Вр╕нр╕Кр╕▓ р╕Ьр╕Ъ.р╕Чр╕Ъ.
“р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕нр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╣Гр╕лр╣Йр╣Ар╕гр╕╡р╕вр╕Бр╕зр╣Ир╕▓ р╕Эр╣Ир╕▓р╕вр╕Щр╕▒р╣Йр╕Щ р╕Эр╣Ир╕▓р╕вр╕Щр╕╡р╣Й р╕нр╕вр╕▓р╕Бр╣Гр╕лр╣Йр╣Гр╕Кр╣Йр╕Др╕│р╕зр╣Ир╕▓ р╕Др╕Щр╕Фр╕╡ р╕Бр╕▒р╕Ъ р╕Др╕Щр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕Фр╕╡”
р╕Вр╣Ир╕▓р╕зр╕кр╕Ф, 23 р╕Хр╕╕р╕ер╕▓р╕Др╕б 2553
From Khasod 23 October 2010
Thai army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha said ” I wouldn’t like to use terms like “that side”or ” this side”, but rather “the good” and “the bad”
Come the revolution?
Nganadeeleg – 17
Nigel & Les: Rather than UDD, wouldn’t the PAD be a (slightly) more appropriate comparison to the Tea Party?
Or just maybe either. At times it seems like a war between two lots of Thai-Chinese businessmen, CP against the Shinawatra group. You can find the Astroturf likeness in both.
Thai institutions: Police
Frank G Anderson – 38
I think its pretty close.
Robert Amsterdam’s preliminary submission to the International Criminal Court
@Hyper
When will the military stop shooting their own people? It is the 21st century.
Come the revolution?
Are you comparing a few thousand unarmed peaceful protesters with the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (~100,000 military personnel, with a ~$160,000,000 budget)? Even if we concede the fact the Red Shirts had a few hundred rifles and a tiny paramilitary force, it’s a bit of a stretch don’t you think?
But you are correct in your analogy, in one important way. The Royal Thai Armed Forces (~600,000 military personnel, ~$6,000,000,000 budget) have an equal chance of losing against protesters or the Cambodian military. In percentage terms, 0%.
The Royal Thai Army is a powerful, powerful tiger. It cannot be broken, it must be tamed.
LM is a ridiculous law with which to charge your citizens. It can only create resentment. It’s self-defeating.
But an organisation of 600,000 personnel being reminded via internal memo that they should not post offensive material onto the Internet about their CEO…is somehow evidence that the organisation is ripe for mutiny?
I would think sheer ambition presents the eternal threat of mutiny in a divided society. That, and maybe their B9000/month salary. Which is ridiculous considering Thailand’s budget (both military and welfare expenditures in the trillions of baht).
I run a medium-sized business. I would not ask my management team to bother my employees with such a memo. But if they were posting offensive material about me onto the Internet, my first concern would be to determine what complaints they had. If they were unable to give a reason beyond “we don’t like being told what to do”, I would not criticise my management team for reminding them that such behaviour is inappropriate.
Thailand’s military is big business. And the corporation’s name is The Royal Thai Armed Forces. Unless their Commander-in-Chief has done something to the soldier, what is the reason for the posting of offensive content? In most military cultures around the world, that behaviour would result in a court-martial or worse. In most large commercial organisations, that behaviour would result in termination of employment or worse.
I feel it’s safe to say that the all-powerful Thai Army doesn’t really feel threatened, if they’re merely responding with a reminder memo to soldiers not to break the law. A stupid law. But only one of many stupid laws in Thailand and in the world.
Come the revolution?
How would international business view opportunities in Thailand shold a revolution occurs?
Depends on the business. Large Multinational Corps (Trans-national corps as they like to be called now) would not be too bothered, but small and medium businesses would probably view it as unacceptable risk for the first few years. If stability is maintained, then it will be back to business as usual.
The thing that actually stops businesses from investing in any country, a far as I can tell, it the application of sanction by their (the business) home country.
Businesses exist to make money. It is just a matter of risk reward. Some business owners – particularly public corps, with professional managers simply have larger risk appetites.
Come the revolution?
Small correction required. Whilst nothing is ever really a zero-sum game outside of theoretical mathematics, of course I meant to say that “it is a zero-sum game”. And very much so; the economic opportunity that arises from chaos is not productive, though it’s often produced. One party’s gain from the chaos of revolution in Thailand will be another party’s loss.
Divide and conquer. Sun Tzu, Julius Caesar and Machiavelli would no doubt mock my sentimentalism at seeing Thais fighting Thais on the streets of Bangkok. One side earning B9000 / month to do the job the police earning B90000 / month refused to do. A job fighting (and killing) their brothers (and sisters) from Isan, who for their part, were undeniably being driven forward by either a billionaire tycoon and / or even more shady and (quite substantively un-Thai) forces.
Upon perusal of this interesting discussion portal, I note many are of the opinion it’s a spontaneous social upheaval. I’m not so certain that is the case. Or perhaps it’s only part of the picture. The government is proposing a Welfare State, “cradle-to-grave” cover for each and every one of 65 million Thais. But that is not what they desire. They are fighting for something, or someone, else. Just what – exactly – it’s quite difficult to determine.
You will forgive my laughter, but I assure you it is merely gallows humour.
Mr Tarrin, there are some very capitalist organisations who would vehemently disagree with your claim. You can find their opinions on the front pages of Bangkok dailies printed in April / May 2010 where their demands (approaching screams as weeks dragged on whilst their position was ignored by the government) that PM Abhisit either send in the Army to forcibly remove the Red Shirts or resign. I assure you the capitalist owners of Bangkok’s altars to Mammon (the owners of the Central World mega-mall spring to mind) would gladly have traded the lives of every Red Shirt protester commandeering their building if it meant commerce could immediately be restored. $ makes the world go round. Human lives are merely expendable capital.
Mr Tarrin may not be aware of the link between commerce and capitalism. But I assure him that there is one. The Red Shirt protests undeniably targeted the former. It is worth noting the Yellow Shirt hijacking of Suvarnabhumi airport was undeniably driven by identical motivations. Both the UDD and PAD are ideologically-driven protest groups. Revolutionist (arguably republican) v Nationalist (undeniably monarchist). Keen observers will have noted the PAD are now planning a protest against the Abhisit government for honouring a memorandum of understanding with Cambodia signed by the Thaksin government in 2000.
The UDD and the PAD have both shown they are willing to damage the economy for their political aims. I would argue both organisations have acted unconscionably. Both claiming to hold the national interest, whilst each simultaneously sacrifices the national interest when they damage it (quite intentionally) in protest.
Mr Tarrin, I am also acquainted with a Goldman Sachs executive based in Singapore. I doubt our acquaintances are mutual, however. I also doubt you have represented the opinion of your acquaintance accurately – if, indeed, you have represented the existence of an acquaintance accurately.
Come the revolution?
Nigel & Les: Rather than UDD, wouldn’t the PAD be a (slightly) more appropriate comparison to the Tea Party?
Come the revolution?
For a revolution – especially a hard left one – to be successful there has to be, as Lenin pointed out, a serious breakdown within the State, so that the ruling class loses self-confidence “as a class in its’ self, and for its’ self” (in Marx’s famous phrase).
The State apparatus has to be severely fractured/ broken – this has usually meant defeat in war (eg. Tsarist Russia, Imperial / Republican China, Vietnam, the Portuguese in Africa, etc.).
This may happen in the current Thai case – if Thailand’s military eg. attacked Cambodia, and were defeated.
Such an attack could come about as a result of over-confidence on the part of the Thai ruling class military/ aristocratic elite : currently they seem very self-confident – eg. the LM crackdown, Ratchaprasong massacre.
However, I think it is far more likely that any major change will come in that very Thai way – through yet another coup.
The younger officers currently seem quite restless indeed – they know they could win huge popularity if they overthrew their seniors. Hence Defence Minister Prawit’s warning just last Friday against younger soldiers posting LM offences on the internet.
Come the revolution?
Having scaled down my personal exposure following the violent Songkran riots of last year, I admit to feeling a sense of vindication of my decision as I watched the tragic, violent riots in Bangkok this year. As Thailand’s economy recovered so extraordinarily well as the 09/10 FY wore on, I felt I had foolishly overreacted.
Whether or not the government is able to juggle the complexity handling an internal crisis whilst subjected to an international media largely disinterested in objectivity when it comes to reporting the UDD provocation, will be the final determinant for whether my tentative withdrawal in 2009 (now heavily supported by my network of colleagues circa June 2010) was overly cautious or rather prudent.
I don’t think any current investor with interests in Thailand would look upon the violence instigated by the UDD this year in a positive light. But I concede there are many of my colleagues who are viewing the situation with great interest, as violence and instability creates opportunity. I assure you that no one I would call a friend is contributing to the instability – at least, not that I am aware of. Of course, only a naive fool would believe that kind of ‘support’ does not exist for the UDD. I have friends who believe the peculiar disinterest in objective reporting is a result of this; but I disagree. I suspect the disparity between reality and the media reports is merely a consideration of sensationalism, as it relates to fabrication of a ‘story’ that ‘sells’ to viewers.
Though I cannot speak for the entire “business community”, I cannot imagine anyone finding fault with my claim that the community is quite concerned about the current levels of revolutionary sentiment. Regardless of your political persuasion, a leftist uprising rarely bodes well for existing enterprise – though it often bodes well for prospective enterprise (at least in the short or medium timeframe – anything after that is subject to debate).
To your second question, the answer to which I have likely already hinted at, I would fork out a great deal of ┬г to listen to a colleague making an argument in support of violent uprising and chaos. It would likely be a rather entertaining argument.
And it would only be made by those who stand to gain from that disarray.
Commerce relies upon stability and rule of law. Opportunity exists when stability and rule of law is abrogated. But it is not a zero-sum game, unfortunately. The success of those who stand to gain from social upheaval in the form of revolution, is arrived at via the direct expense of existing stakeholders.
I would be a great deal wealthier were I not restricted by sentimentalist considerations. The opportunities to profit in the aftermath of destruction are undeniably there. And – quite unfortunately for existing investors – far too attractive for some of my colleagues to resist the temptation to ‘assist’ in the ‘revolution’.
That is the logic which fuelled my decision to limit my exposure. Of course, it’s sentiment like this which is – ironically, if unavoidably – costly for the Thai economy. And whether the existing regime or the revolutionaries fly their flag at the end of the day, the Thai economy will wear the economic scars of their battle.
Come the revolution?
Nigel – 13
That’s an interesting comparison that I hadn’t thought of, the UDD and America’s Tea Party. Who would be our Sarah Palin? I suspect Nattawut and Jataporn are more intelligent so it would have to be Chalerm. What would the Thai equivalent of an Astroturf movement be? Maybe a eucalyptus movement?
UMNO dies defending Putrajaya
Actually it will be more of a Thai style – not so subtle military, but not blatant like Pakistan etc. Malaysia Thailand – Best Friends Forever…
Come the revolution?
There’s no reason why the business world should fear a UDD revolution, other than for the fact that it will continue the current crony-capitalist system at the expense of a genuine free market (in so far as such a thing exists). An interesting article in the Guardian newspaper by George Monbiot I read recently coined the phrase Astroturf movement ( as opposed to a grassroots movement) to describe the Tea Party in America. His point was that the whole thing was, in a sense, artificial as it was being financed and manipulated by big business. Does this ring a bell with anyone following events in Thailand?
Self-sufficient Pyramid Scheme
Farmer Vichai: Yesterday I was self-sufficient. But today garlic and fruits coming from China are being sold at the markets 60% of my price. So today my income from my farm had been cut by nearly in half and I am no longer self-sufficient.
Employee Vichai: Yesterday I was self-sufficient and factory was doing healthy export business. But today several factories at Vietnam and Indonesia are selling our factories products with better quality and at lower prices. Tomorrow my factory will be closed, my self-sufficiency and self-respect gone.
Self-sufficiency is an illusion and it is never lasting nor permanent.
Thai institutions: Police
Can another Thai language reader/translator check my translation, please? Dictionaries were not overly helpful.
Thanks.
Frank
р╣Ар╕Др╕гр╕╖р╣Ир╕нр╕Зр╕лр╕бр╕▓р╕вр╕гр╕▓р╕Кр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Бр╕лр╣Ир╕Зр╕кр╕│р╕Щр╕▒р╕Бр╕Зр╕▓р╕Щр╕Хр╕│р╕гр╕зр╕Ир╣Бр╕лр╣Ир╕Зр╕Кр╕▓р╕Хр╕┤ р╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕Юр╕гр╕░р╣Бр╕кр╕Зр╕Фр╕▓р╕Ър╣Ар╕Вр╕Щр╣Бр╕ер╕░р╣Вр╕ер╣И р╕Лр╕╢р╣Ир╕Зр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕зр╕Зр╕Бр╕ер╕бр╣Ар╕кр╣Йр╕Щр╕Др╕╣р╣Ир╕кр╕нр╕Зр╕Кр╕▒р╣Йр╕Щ р╕зр╕Зр╕Щр╕нр╕Бр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╕Юр╕гр╕гр╕Ур╕Юр╕др╕Бр╕йр╕▓ р╕зр╕Зр╣Гр╕Щр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╣Гр╕Ър╣Ар╕Чр╕ир╕Ьр╕╣р╕Бр╕ер╕▓р╕вр╣Ар╕Ыр╣Зр╕Щр╕гр╕╣р╕Ыр╕лр╕Щр╣Йр╕▓р╕кр╕┤р╕Зр╕лр╣М (р╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕Ир╕│р╕Бр╕▒р╕Фр╕кр╕╡р╣Бр╕ер╕░р╕Вр╕Щр╕▓р╕Ф
National government symbol – Royal Thai Police, comprising a sword and round shield with paired raised circles. The outer circle is in the form of a tree, the inner circle in the form of sermon leaves bound together to form the face of a lion (no limitation on size or color).