Comments

  1. Jean-Philippe Leblond says:

    The vulnerability of the yellow falcons and what we can do about it

    It’s always interesting to try to answer the question: What should a truly democratic and good government do? To me, there is another pressing question, namely: What exactly and concretely can activists, journalists, academics, diplomats, etc. do to help resolve the crisis, assuming that all these actors share the same goal of bringing Thailand closer to a liberal democracy? I’m thinking here in particular about non-Thai actors. TLC-members will know that this question was at the center of – or at least a subtext in – a recent exchange between Thongchai W. and J. Taylor.

    A few weeks ago, I was struck by two articles in the Quebec press. In the first one (fn1), Brousseau sadly but realistically posited that Thailand’s currently limited geopolitical importance coupled with the relatively “deathless” nature of the protracted conflict at play (at least as compared to more violent conflicts elsewhere) meant that there were much more pressing and important crises elsewhere, and in particular in SEA. In other words, the attention that the Songkran 2010 events attracted in Canada and elsewhere in the West was a reflection of how current news editors worked and not of how they should work (i.e. focusing on more important crises). In the second article (fn2), Erik Kuhonta was quoted as saying (I’m paraphrasing) that in Thailand, as elsewhere in Asia, political elites were highly jealous of their sovereignty. As a result, the call from the Reds to have the UN intervene in some way was a dead end from the start. Probably mistakenly, I took this as implying that there was little chance that foreign pressure could have a positive effect on the government (fn3). It could even backfire and who knows lead Thailand yellow elites on a path towards isolationism.

    This brings me back to my initial question: is there something, concretely, that outsiders can do and which can reasonably be expected to have a positive outcome? Is there truly a risk of a backlash and Thailand’s ammart adopting an overt (or de facto) anti-democratic and isolationist position?

    I’d like to add my two cents here and more or less repeat what I wrote to Brousseau back in May. To me, the most pressing problems and dangers come from the falcons in both camps, with the yellow ones currently being the most dangerous as they are in power. The falcons’ destructive power and influence can ultimately only be limited by attacking their political legitimacy in the eyes of the public at home. In the case of the yellow falcons, I believe they are in a remarkably vulnerable position. They are in fact prisoners of the ideological tools and discourses developed during the Cold War to defeat communism, ascertain their power and re-establish the political importance of the throne. At present, their power and the very Thai identity is tightly linked to concepts key to the Cold War, namely prachatipatai (democracy/good government/non-communist regime) and pattana (development). As such, I cannot see how they could go overtly against basic democratic concepts such as one man one vote without attacking a key pillar of their legitimacy. In the case of economic development, the Thai economy is now highly dependent on tourism and investments from first world nations. As such, Thailand’s economic well-being rests upon it maintaining a positive image in the eyes of the world, and in particular of major democratic countries. Otherwise, the economic performance of the country could be badly shaken and this, again, would greatly affect the legitimacy of the rulers.

    Perhaps naively, I thus believe that Thailand’s current situation is perhaps one of rare instance where foreign diplomats, journalists and academics can make a difference as the political elites are already vulnerable to criticism from foreigners. Contrary to Burma, Iran, etc., Thailand’s elites do not have the option of simply ignoring foreign criticism and isolating themselves. I take the fury directed against CNN etc. as well as the ridiculous article by Tulsathit (fn 4) as proof of the vulnerability of yellow falcons and their supporters against foreign criticisms from a democratic or social justice angle. This should of course continue and critical articles continue to be published in the press and pressures be made to foreign governments. What is also needed is more overt and systematic analyzes of the Thai judicial system and of recent decisions against Thaksin and the red in order to critically evaluate (and potentially substantiate) claims of double standards and of a blatantly biased judiciary. In this sense, the recent article by Jeffrey Race (fn5) and the analysis of the 76b bath-judgment provided by 6 Thammassat professors (fn6) are exactly what is needed for a more constructive discussion to take place.

    Anyways, the question is still open: given our various constraints and opportunities, What can we do concretely?

    footnotes:
    1 Brousseau F. (2010) Au-del├а de la Tha├пlande. Le Devoir, (17 mai).
    http://www.ledevoir.com/international/asie/289104/au-dela-de-la-thailande
    2) Perreault L.-J. (2010) Les chemises rouges hissent un bout de drapeau blanc. La Presse, (18 mai). http://www.cyberpresse.ca/international/asie-oceanie/201005/18/01-4281412-les-chemises-rouges-hissent-un-bout-de-drapeau-blanc.php

    3) If my memory serves me correctly, Kuhonta was quoted on the SRC radio as making this point. I do not have the reference so I could be mistaken.

    4) Taptim T. (2010) The real travesty of the ‘class war’. The Nation, (April 7).

    5) Race J. (2010) Restructuring, Renorming, Rethinking: Inferences from Canonical Thai Corruption Cases. http://pws.prserv.net/studies/twocases.htm.

    6) The document is mentioned here: Devakula P. (2010) An open and frank debate to test a court’s verdict. The Nation (March 22). It was also sent on TLC

  2. Leif Jonsson says:

    I enter this fray with a smile and some awareness gained from decades-worth of pop music; I think this song does not work. Farelly and Walker rely on statistics to say the threat of eviction is an exaggeration, and they demolish this illusion primarily with their “statistical thrust.” To me, this is a very masculine and sociological posturing. Tapp is on the other side and argues that uplanders live in pervasive fear. Leblond’s paper is so copiously documented that it is sometimes hard to distinguish trees and forest, but at least he makes it clear that laws can be wielded to make various groups of people permanently vulnerable and at the mercy of various powerful others who just happen to have lots of ways to make life miserable and get good-will favors and payments. Where things go from there is another matter that varies from place to place. Coming to a sense of who people are, and asking firm and reflexive questions about to what extent upland and lowland people differ (what Moerman, Lehman, and others did in the 1960s before the Thailand Controversy spoiled the sandbox of academics) is still worth a try, but it may not make for an exciting boxing match.

  3. E. Falang says:

    “There are many quality people in the Army that really want the Army to reform but because of the current corrupted system forced them to go with the flow like staged coup, sell drugs, and kill their own citizen even if they don’t want to but they have to do it anyway for career advancement or whatever the reason might be.”

    How is it I know the comment above was written by a Thai?
    What is it in the culture that allows someone to write this without critical thought and others (I hope) to act like this.
    Change this attitude and you change Thailand.
    ”someone else can do it”
    “‘Leave it to Father to sort out”

  4. chris beale says:

    Also – Andrew – it’s one thing to have graphs :
    it’s quite another to have political legitimacy.
    It seems to me, that inorder to implement thoroughly the kinds of policies you’re recommending – which are great and good – a “Thai” government would need huge legitimacy.
    Of the kind only Thaksin achieved.

  5. chris beale says:

    A fantastic, high-quality production : congratulations to all.
    Andrew – who’ve raised a huge host of questions, and I support your perspective.
    But I’ve an infinite number of questions.
    Boiling it all down to one :
    your first graph is about “North Thailand”, your second about
    “North-eastern Thailand”.
    What kind of differences have you discovered between these two, distinct regions, in relation to what you say about “de-industrialisation” ?
    From what I’ve seen around Udon Thani, there’s hugely increasing Chinese retail, and even some Chinese re-industrialisation.

  6. Alex says:

    Chris, Jim

    Bangkok’s English-language papers are understandably quiet about this rural killings. But don’t worry much as they are useless anyway.

    An sms service from media sources like VoiceTV and Lok Wan Nee reported the murders one by one, now totalling three persons already. These sources also reported on Chatuporn challenging Suthep to swear at Wat Phra Keo that the government was not involved in these killings.

    Btw, Somyot will be released soon following strong pressure from int’l labour unions.

  7. StanG says:

    Didn’t Democrat Governor Sukhumbhand also say that reconciliation had to involve Thaksin?

    Absolutely, but that’s not the kind of reconciliation the govt has in mind.

    It (foolishly, imo) plays along with people who claim the red movement is more than about Thaksin and tries to address those alleged problems – poverty, inequality, double standards, whatever is their current hot excuse to burn Bangkok.

    In the end, however, the only way to really reconcile the country is to make a deal with Thaksin, or shut him up for good so that he and his minions stop pitching one part of the population against the other.

    His divisive rhetorics should be erased from the public consciousness, then we shall see how important the “issues” are on their own.

    Abhisit has ordered the census bureau to collect information nationwide in the next couple of months, while red media are still off the air. I won’t be surprised if the seriousness of red grievances will be found seriously overestimated.

    Hopefully, even the red radicals would realize they are fighting their own strawmen and their battles are completely lost on those who aspire for greater prosperity – for them Bangkok is a magnet, not a target.

  8. chris beale says:

    Thanks Jim – very much appreciated, and will pass it on.
    You’re obviously the real Jim – and not that fake one which a previous poster was trying to allege was Ji !!
    Thank you for your information and integrity.

  9. Jim Taylor says:

    Chris #91, info on Prachathai (р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕Кр╕▓р╣Др╕Ч; Thai version):

    http://www.prachatai3.info/journal/2010/06/29964?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+prachatai+%28%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%8A%E0%B8%B2%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%97+Prachatai.com%29

    Much of the best independent information can be found on this web site, and other sources that are listed in “Thai-enews”. They try to translate important docs, and some sites in Thai and English are available on the right hand site (where these are not blocked)/

  10. Tarrin says:

    Slacks – 19

    In 1976 Thailand enemy was the Commie, now in 2010 they made the red “terrorist” as their enemy so the chance that the yellow will join the red is really slim.

  11. michael says:

    Les Abby #90 : “Some more quotes for you.” Please give source. Quotes are useless unless a source that may be checked is given.

  12. chris beale says:

    In the best news yet, Abhisit is visiting Anand Panyarachun, apparently for advice on how to achieve genuine reconcliation.
    Abhisit is also reported to be lobbying for Anand to become the head of a multi-panel reconciliation board :
    http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/06/12/politics/PM-Govt-will-reach-out-30131434.html

  13. chris beale says:

    Jim Taylor – found a report about these murders at The Nation
    (Royalist website!). Can you cite other reports ?
    By the looks of it, these murders are NOT happening in Isaanr or Lanna. The “Thai” does not dare, I guess.

  14. David Brown says:

    Jim,

    I think relevant to the killings in the “war” against drugs

    I keep thinking that the Border Patrol Police, who seem to be implicated in (carried out) lots of atrocities, for example in the “war” on drugs

    are not really police, are not under police control?

    the BPP are listed on both the Defence and Police websites (a nice ambiguity, matrix management=no responsibility) and in their history they were closely associated (perhaps commanded) with the Palace (for example Vasit whatever his name is)

    so are they more military or still actually a 3rd force reporting fairly directly to the palace and perhaps privy council Prem?

    do you have any insights on where they sit and whether any one actually controls them?

  15. chris beale says:

    Jim Taylor #88 :
    Re :
    im Taylor // Jun 12, 2010 at 2:20 pm

    “red shirt regional protest leaders (р╣Бр╕Бр╕Щр╕Щр╕│) are being picked off and murdered one by one, latest victims 60 year old from Sisaket Province named Mr Sawat Duangmani (р╕кр╕зр╕▓р╕Ч р╕Фр╕зр╕Зр╕бр╕Ур╕╡) was found murdered two days ago, stangled by his phakama (cloth) and his body dumped in Chonburi with hands tied behind his back. Then 26 year old Mr Sakkarin Kongkaew (р╕ир╕▒р╕Бр╕гр╕┤р╕Щр╕Чр╕гр╣М р╕Бр╕нр╕Зр╣Бр╕Бр╣Йр╕з, or “р╕нр╣Йр╕зр╕Щ р╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╣Гр╕лр╕Нр╣И”), shot as he was driving his car”.
    Can you cite some sources which have reported this happening ? Where are you getting your information ?
    It is highly likely this is happening, given Thai history – but where is your evidence ?

  16. chris beale says:

    Somsak #39 :
    On your suggestion, and in light of recent events, I am re-reading
    with some colleagues, Handley a second time – though I spent a long time reading his book first time.

    Re your:
    “P.S. That there wasn’t any coup for 15 years, and before that there was another break of 14 years (the last successful coup was in 1977, then 1991, then 2006), HMK’s role is definitely not a sufficient explanation. It’s a very important issue why there are these two long break to be sure, but you must seek explanation elsewhere.”
    WHERE “elsewhere” ?

  17. LesAbbey says:

    Jim Taylor – 88

    Giles don’t you think it may be best to wait for some indication who carried out the two murders?

    Also best not to play the numbers game on the day that leaks from the Khanit panel indicate that 1,200 killings of drug dealers were carried out by the red shirt’s friends in the police. With another 1,300 deaths to be accounted for it will make for a number of unlawful killings unequaled by most countries in the post-WW2 period.

    Some more quotes for you.

    Charnchao Chaiyanukij said yesterday that the Khanit na Nakhon panel found that former interior minister Sermsak Pongpanit, acting on the orders of former prime minister Thaksin, ordered all provincial governors to submit a blacklist of drug dealers and runners within seven days.

    Charnchao said many provincial governors had testified to the Khanit panel, set up by the Surayud government, that a shoot-to-kill order was issued internally among high-ranking Interior Ministry officials. “The governors then relayed the orders to provincial police chiefs to follow,” he added.

    Of course the Stalinists will so very good, a bullet in the back of the head will solve most problems.

  18. Slacks says:

    Thailand is in need of an external enemy. After the death of the king and the ensuing civil war, eventually the reds and yellows will come together. How? By blaming all of their problems on us “farangs”.

    Thailand – Paradise Lost.

  19. Ralph Kramden says:

    Didn’t Democrat Governor Sukhumbhand also say that reconciliation had to involve Thaksin?

  20. chris beale says:

    Thank you BKK Lawyer #84 for that information – all of which is very much a credit to the journalistic integrity of both Wasssana and the Bangkok Post.