It’s just the Thai cycle. The protesters will soon disappear and in a few years we’ll have another coup. Thais are too passive to have a revolution and generally too friendly to start kicking out foreigners. They depend on us for tourism. Too much gloom and doom being talked about online. Nothing significant is going to happen.
Mungo Gubbins #5, you’re right, this sounds like the ridiculous ‘plot to overthrow you-know-who’ chart.
Nevertheless, I think the red shirt leaders most certainly know that even if parlament is dissolved and elections called, the current system will not let them stay in power if they win an election. Taksin or his alliies can’t hold a governing position without neutralizing the ‘beyond the scenes’ powers or, at least find an agreement with them. Agreement which seems quite unlikely.
To achieve true democratic goals, a very deep change has to be done in the power structure. As those in power don’t show any sign of flexibility in this direction, only fools would believe that an election will be enough to build a democratic system.
I believe that the stubborness and arrogance of the power in place has the potential to give birth to a revolution, I’m not sure thai people are ready for this, but if the situation continues to worsen, it seems inevitable.
StanG: Why can’t the monarchy maintain its ‘prestige’ by relying on it’s deeds?
In fact, as the deeds are apparently so great, wouldn’t more transparency bring about inreased presitige?
Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon lashed out during a Defence Council meeting after being criticised for his failure to deal with anti-government protesters, a source says.
The outburst occurred during Thursday’s meeting when one of the generals vented his frustration about the rally and the army’s inaction, a source close to the meeting said.
“What can we do in a situation like this?” the source quoted Gen Prawit as saying.
“We do what the government orders, but it is not always easy [to follow the orders to the letter] especially when it comes to [dispersing] the Ratchaprasong [red shirt rally].”…
Senior military officers are uneasy about Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva passing operational responsibility to them, said the source.
Mr Abhisit has pushed for the military to deal with the red shirt protesters while dragging his feet in finding a political solution to the crisis, said the source.
“There is no dialogue. There is no sacrifice [on Mr Abhisit’s part]. They [the senior officers] are all fed up,” said the source.
The source also criticised the prime minister for his lack of respect for senior military officers.
Simple words cannot describe my utter contempt for this kind of pathetic, face-saving claptrap.
My wife and I had a good laught last night at the sight of Chavalit – in full military dress regalia – pitching up at the 11th Infantry complete with evidence of his innocence, including a biography of his life, various letters and pamphlets. A highly bemused Suthep said, ”I don’t know why he gave this to me, or what it proves. I didn’t tell him to come here”.
Thus dismissed, an angry Chavalit abruptly left.
Oh dear, a powerful and influential ex-general losing face.
Colum Graham, I fear that your optimism for the popularity of the book may be premature, as the sales are likely to be eclipsed by the alternative publication the ‘Idiots guide to counter terrorism’.
I also think that maps such as you mention are a useful visual guide. Unless of course they erroneously infer that the hierarchy and intellectual sympathisers of an extremist movement, which has advocated and committed a catalogue of criminal acts of violence and intimidation in a bid to achieve it’s political aims, are predominantly republican in their thinking. That would be very unfair wouldn’t it?
Maru #4 The red shirts achieved their first step: push the establishement to come in the open, show their true face and expose the links between all the holders of power. Now they should be ready for step 2: a full scale revolution.
Could you give an indication as to how the revolution might be brought about? And maybe a map showing who the key players in the revolution might be please?
What is the precise proposition that could be refuted? It’s a mind map, a brainstorming tool, sometimes useful for thinking of ideas, but it is not evidence of anything, except perhaps in this case the paranoiac disposition of its creators.
You might as well ask for a refutation of what psychics sometimes claim to see in the arrangement of tealeaves. Or a plate of spaghetti.
You could add lines on this map until it includes everyone in the known universe.
okay honey u may have been accused of a crime that u didnt do, i feel for u but dont post it online (or let ur friend) to abuse the thai king. he doesnt even have the rite to move a block.. someone had said that he was somehow a dick so it seemed like they thought that he is rulling the country and can do watever , dickheads are everywhere… for ur informationtion the king has no legal rite or even allowed to get involved… so now thailand is shitty, i know but u see ur friend should have been burried in hell…
oh by the way if watever u do and beg the king, he would let u go in a tick and would probably give u a new life but u see…. parliament would not even allow the king to say a word!! and he is ok with that not coz hes soft but it is his mission to go around and help the one in need….. wanna love princess diana?? this one (thai king) should have been borned something else!!!!
My bad, what I want to says is that the productivity change might not cause by “expansion of contract farming” but instead worker who do farming migrate to factory. To judge weather productivity is increasing or not we should use the production per area instead of income per worker.
Rice productivity of Thailand in 2001 is 2.62 t/ha and it is 2.69 t/ha, not much change during those 7 years.
I guess you people have heard of the “creative economy”. It’s, again, not so new- a brain child (well aborted foetus, really) of the last government. Britain was one of the key models the Thaksin administration looked at. Study about it a bit; its definition leaves room for imagination. The Thaksin administration had some thinking for it but they did not come up with any concrete strategic planning. The current government plus the NESDB are apparently clueless to this approach (the recent NESDB report on creative economy strategy is poor).
How do nations compete in the twenty-first century?
Answer- We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars- Oscar Wilde.
Another enormous problem with the per capita figures is how you treat the large population (mostly registered outside bkk) engaged in 2 or 3 sectors. In a rural economy in which pluriactivity is the rule, the definition of the agricultural workforce has a huge impact on per capita figures. Nothing new here, I know.
On a related subject:
The structural causes of the conflict explored here are a common features of economies undergoing their “agrarian transition” or structural changes. Yet, open and violent political conflicts do not emerge systematically.
This is the only good point mentioned in the recent editorial of The Nation [The Nation. (2010) Do they really know what’s happening here? The Nation, (April 30).] In the editorial, the author suggests the key difference between Thailand and the ROWP&P (rest of the world past and present) is Thaksin, who is funding the protest. This is of course not a very serious causal analysis as it only addresses a tiny and non-essential portion of the causal chain. Perhaps a more meaningful difference between Thailand and non-violent cases lies in the fact that in Thailand, one camp (yellow/elites/Palace network/Sonthi and Anupong, etc.) has successfully destroyed the credibility of all institutions, in particular the judicial system, which could have helped pacify the situation. With the politicization of “neutral” institutions, the perception of deep injustice is great and trust between opposing groups disappears.
Again, there is a great need for a comparative analysis of the political repercussions of the agrarian transition in Thailand vs ROWP& P. I found the following an interesting starting point: Hayami Y. (2007) An Emerging Agricultural Problem in High-Performing Asian Economies. Washington: World Bank
“The decline of the Thai line in graph 2 looks great. But the end-point is still 8 times. Divide your income by eight and see if you want to live on that”
Most of this disparity ends up in the pockets of the capitalists doesn’t it? And not to the workers as real wages.
I remember statistics posted on Prachatai and Bangkok Pundit, the number of LM cases was clearly on decline after peaking up around 2007, I would like to know how this “sharp increase over the past ten months” from AI report is justified.
Demand to scrap jail as a punishment for LM sounds reasonable, but the other side of the coin is that the punishment should serve as a deterrent first and foremost, and so levels for any particular offense can vary from one society to another and from one time period to the next.
Can those who argue for “no jail” guarantee that there would be a decrease in LM offenses here, in Thailand, at this particular juncture? In short, medium, and long terms?
Can they guarantee that the monarchy will maintain it’s current “prestige”? How would they maintain the constitutionally prescribed status and respect?
The problem with this, and all other productivity calculations over the last fifteen or so years, is that the source statistics take no account of illegal or semi-legalized immigrant labour. There may be 3 million Burmese and other migrant workers not counted in the statistics used to make these calculations. That’s around 10 percent of the workforce. We don’t know exactly how many, we don’t know the industry/agriculture distribution, we don’t know the fluctuation from year to year.
Even so, I suspect that Andrew’s 2nd graph is probably roughly right. During Thaksin, agriculture benefited first from the general upswing of 2001-4, and then from Thaksin’s price subsidies, perhaps his single cleverest ‘populist’ policy, widely overlooked, absolutely right in terms of strategy, very badly implemented in detail (unacceptably high levels of rent).
I’ve no idea what to do about the impact of the migrant labour on Andrew’s statistics. Ignoring it will lay him open to challenge. Perhaps some kind of caveat is needed.
The decline of the Thai line in graph 2 looks great. But the end-point is still 8 times. Divide your income by eight and see if you want to live on that.
Each one of their MPs was elected, and so was each of PTP or Chart Thai Pattana. Party dissolution has no effect on individual MP status.
These MPs elected the Prime Minster and, judging by all evidence, they still support him.
Reds are just puffing out smoke when the say the elections were stolen from them. They have never voted for the PM in the first place, they can’t lose something they never had.
the iron curtain is closing in, the Thai government is steadily sliding towards the burmese model. Soon Bangkok Post and The Nation will blend to become ‘The New Light of Thailand’ pointing a hateful finger to evil foreign influence (or is it already the case?).
The red shirts achieved their first step: push the establishement to come in the open, show their true face and expose the links between all the holders of power. Now they should be ready for step 2: a full scale revolution.
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What Kasit said to the diplomats
It’s just the Thai cycle. The protesters will soon disappear and in a few years we’ll have another coup. Thais are too passive to have a revolution and generally too friendly to start kicking out foreigners. They depend on us for tourism. Too much gloom and doom being talked about online. Nothing significant is going to happen.
What Kasit said to the diplomats
Mungo Gubbins #5, you’re right, this sounds like the ridiculous ‘plot to overthrow you-know-who’ chart.
Nevertheless, I think the red shirt leaders most certainly know that even if parlament is dissolved and elections called, the current system will not let them stay in power if they win an election. Taksin or his alliies can’t hold a governing position without neutralizing the ‘beyond the scenes’ powers or, at least find an agreement with them. Agreement which seems quite unlikely.
To achieve true democratic goals, a very deep change has to be done in the power structure. As those in power don’t show any sign of flexibility in this direction, only fools would believe that an election will be enough to build a democratic system.
I believe that the stubborness and arrogance of the power in place has the potential to give birth to a revolution, I’m not sure thai people are ready for this, but if the situation continues to worsen, it seems inevitable.
The betrayal of human rights mandarins
StanG: Why can’t the monarchy maintain its ‘prestige’ by relying on it’s deeds?
In fact, as the deeds are apparently so great, wouldn’t more transparency bring about inreased presitige?
“The deep political crisis within the Royal Thai Army officer corps”
I’ve selected some comments from this BP article:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/176433/prawit-lashes-out-at-inaction-claims
Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon lashed out during a Defence Council meeting after being criticised for his failure to deal with anti-government protesters, a source says.
The outburst occurred during Thursday’s meeting when one of the generals vented his frustration about the rally and the army’s inaction, a source close to the meeting said.
“What can we do in a situation like this?” the source quoted Gen Prawit as saying.
“We do what the government orders, but it is not always easy [to follow the orders to the letter] especially when it comes to [dispersing] the Ratchaprasong [red shirt rally].”…
Senior military officers are uneasy about Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva passing operational responsibility to them, said the source.
Mr Abhisit has pushed for the military to deal with the red shirt protesters while dragging his feet in finding a political solution to the crisis, said the source.
“There is no dialogue. There is no sacrifice [on Mr Abhisit’s part]. They [the senior officers] are all fed up,” said the source.
The source also criticised the prime minister for his lack of respect for senior military officers.
Simple words cannot describe my utter contempt for this kind of pathetic, face-saving claptrap.
Suthep threatens arrests
My wife and I had a good laught last night at the sight of Chavalit – in full military dress regalia – pitching up at the 11th Infantry complete with evidence of his innocence, including a biography of his life, various letters and pamphlets. A highly bemused Suthep said, ”I don’t know why he gave this to me, or what it proves. I didn’t tell him to come here”.
Thus dismissed, an angry Chavalit abruptly left.
Oh dear, a powerful and influential ex-general losing face.
Dangerous.
What Kasit said to the diplomats
The absolute idiocy being exercised by these powers-that-be is merely the result of long-term self-adulation.
Clash at National Monument
Or is this edited version less problematic?
Colum Graham, I fear that your optimism for the popularity of the book may be premature, as the sales are likely to be eclipsed by the alternative publication the ‘Idiots guide to counter terrorism’.
I also think that maps such as you mention are a useful visual guide. Unless of course they erroneously infer that the hierarchy and intellectual sympathisers of an extremist movement, which has advocated and committed a catalogue of criminal acts of violence and intimidation in a bid to achieve it’s political aims, are predominantly republican in their thinking. That would be very unfair wouldn’t it?
What Kasit said to the diplomats
Maru #4 The red shirts achieved their first step: push the establishement to come in the open, show their true face and expose the links between all the holders of power. Now they should be ready for step 2: a full scale revolution.
Could you give an indication as to how the revolution might be brought about? And maybe a map showing who the key players in the revolution might be please?
Suthep threatens arrests
Stan G,
What is the precise proposition that could be refuted? It’s a mind map, a brainstorming tool, sometimes useful for thinking of ideas, but it is not evidence of anything, except perhaps in this case the paranoiac disposition of its creators.
You might as well ask for a refutation of what psychics sometimes claim to see in the arrangement of tealeaves. Or a plate of spaghetti.
You could add lines on this map until it includes everyone in the known universe.
Oliver Jufer, royal graffiti and global news
okay honey u may have been accused of a crime that u didnt do, i feel for u but dont post it online (or let ur friend) to abuse the thai king. he doesnt even have the rite to move a block.. someone had said that he was somehow a dick so it seemed like they thought that he is rulling the country and can do watever , dickheads are everywhere… for ur informationtion the king has no legal rite or even allowed to get involved… so now thailand is shitty, i know but u see ur friend should have been burried in hell…
oh by the way if watever u do and beg the king, he would let u go in a tick and would probably give u a new life but u see…. parliament would not even allow the king to say a word!! and he is ok with that not coz hes soft but it is his mission to go around and help the one in need….. wanna love princess diana?? this one (thai king) should have been borned something else!!!!
Thailand’s disparity between agriculture and industry
My bad, what I want to says is that the productivity change might not cause by “expansion of contract farming” but instead worker who do farming migrate to factory. To judge weather productivity is increasing or not we should use the production per area instead of income per worker.
Rice productivity of Thailand in 2001 is 2.62 t/ha and it is 2.69 t/ha, not much change during those 7 years.
Economic strategy and the roots of Thai political turmoil
I guess you people have heard of the “creative economy”. It’s, again, not so new- a brain child (well aborted foetus, really) of the last government. Britain was one of the key models the Thaksin administration looked at. Study about it a bit; its definition leaves room for imagination. The Thaksin administration had some thinking for it but they did not come up with any concrete strategic planning. The current government plus the NESDB are apparently clueless to this approach (the recent NESDB report on creative economy strategy is poor).
How do nations compete in the twenty-first century?
Answer- We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars- Oscar Wilde.
Thailand’s disparity between agriculture and industry
Another enormous problem with the per capita figures is how you treat the large population (mostly registered outside bkk) engaged in 2 or 3 sectors. In a rural economy in which pluriactivity is the rule, the definition of the agricultural workforce has a huge impact on per capita figures. Nothing new here, I know.
On a related subject:
The structural causes of the conflict explored here are a common features of economies undergoing their “agrarian transition” or structural changes. Yet, open and violent political conflicts do not emerge systematically.
This is the only good point mentioned in the recent editorial of The Nation [The Nation. (2010) Do they really know what’s happening here? The Nation, (April 30).] In the editorial, the author suggests the key difference between Thailand and the ROWP&P (rest of the world past and present) is Thaksin, who is funding the protest. This is of course not a very serious causal analysis as it only addresses a tiny and non-essential portion of the causal chain. Perhaps a more meaningful difference between Thailand and non-violent cases lies in the fact that in Thailand, one camp (yellow/elites/Palace network/Sonthi and Anupong, etc.) has successfully destroyed the credibility of all institutions, in particular the judicial system, which could have helped pacify the situation. With the politicization of “neutral” institutions, the perception of deep injustice is great and trust between opposing groups disappears.
Again, there is a great need for a comparative analysis of the political repercussions of the agrarian transition in Thailand vs ROWP& P. I found the following an interesting starting point: Hayami Y. (2007) An Emerging Agricultural Problem in High-Performing Asian Economies. Washington: World Bank
Thailand’s disparity between agriculture and industry
“The decline of the Thai line in graph 2 looks great. But the end-point is still 8 times. Divide your income by eight and see if you want to live on that”
Most of this disparity ends up in the pockets of the capitalists doesn’t it? And not to the workers as real wages.
The betrayal of human rights mandarins
I remember statistics posted on Prachatai and Bangkok Pundit, the number of LM cases was clearly on decline after peaking up around 2007, I would like to know how this “sharp increase over the past ten months” from AI report is justified.
Demand to scrap jail as a punishment for LM sounds reasonable, but the other side of the coin is that the punishment should serve as a deterrent first and foremost, and so levels for any particular offense can vary from one society to another and from one time period to the next.
Can those who argue for “no jail” guarantee that there would be a decrease in LM offenses here, in Thailand, at this particular juncture? In short, medium, and long terms?
Can they guarantee that the monarchy will maintain it’s current “prestige”? How would they maintain the constitutionally prescribed status and respect?
These are genuine questions.
Suthep threatens arrests
StanG…
hahahaha…. you dont know what “dinosaur with a blue diamond” means….
and you are just waiting for someone to enlighten you…..
you are a troll … pure and simple
hopefully noone falls for it
Thailand’s disparity between agriculture and industry
The problem with this, and all other productivity calculations over the last fifteen or so years, is that the source statistics take no account of illegal or semi-legalized immigrant labour. There may be 3 million Burmese and other migrant workers not counted in the statistics used to make these calculations. That’s around 10 percent of the workforce. We don’t know exactly how many, we don’t know the industry/agriculture distribution, we don’t know the fluctuation from year to year.
Even so, I suspect that Andrew’s 2nd graph is probably roughly right. During Thaksin, agriculture benefited first from the general upswing of 2001-4, and then from Thaksin’s price subsidies, perhaps his single cleverest ‘populist’ policy, widely overlooked, absolutely right in terms of strategy, very badly implemented in detail (unacceptably high levels of rent).
I’ve no idea what to do about the impact of the migrant labour on Andrew’s statistics. Ignoring it will lay him open to challenge. Perhaps some kind of caveat is needed.
The decline of the Thai line in graph 2 looks great. But the end-point is still 8 times. Divide your income by eight and see if you want to live on that.
Clash at National Monument
What do you mean BJT was not elected?
Each one of their MPs was elected, and so was each of PTP or Chart Thai Pattana. Party dissolution has no effect on individual MP status.
These MPs elected the Prime Minster and, judging by all evidence, they still support him.
Reds are just puffing out smoke when the say the elections were stolen from them. They have never voted for the PM in the first place, they can’t lose something they never had.
What Kasit said to the diplomats
the iron curtain is closing in, the Thai government is steadily sliding towards the burmese model. Soon Bangkok Post and The Nation will blend to become ‘The New Light of Thailand’ pointing a hateful finger to evil foreign influence (or is it already the case?).
The red shirts achieved their first step: push the establishement to come in the open, show their true face and expose the links between all the holders of power. Now they should be ready for step 2: a full scale revolution.
Suthep threatens arrests
Somsak #56
Does anyone have any firmer information on the background of Pojani, Pojaman’s mother?
I was told the story in exactly the same words that Ajan Somsak uses, that “she asked to adopt the family name.” Where does this story come from?
And where does she come from? I tried asking other members of the na Pomphet clan, who all went very quiet.
Sympathies for A. Somsak. This is very silly, but very nasty too.