I’m a Vietnamese, reading news recently bring me so much anger with the chinese.
For thousands of year, they have been tried to invade Vietnam and their neighborhood. Now, Mekong river is dried up because of their dams, yet they said there is “no proof” of their dam is making Mekong River dried…
And conference? Invitation to see their dam and it’s impact? Just like The Frog said up above my comment here, it’s a shame that people can’t just put a jacket on.
China is ruining Mekong Detal River’s culture and it’s people and use mekong for their source of income, for a living. There are people who lived on boat and sail everyday with the mekong river, they live with it.
This’s not just about Nature, it’s also about political.
Can someone stop china from being like this? Please?
JohnH @18 your point about the risks of attempting to compartmentalize or simplify these demonstrations is well taken. I’ve been grappling for months (years?) trying to understand some of the root motivations behind what is happening without coming to any conclusions.
Perhaps these demonstrations are the same as many others (but certainly not all) over the past 50+ years – driven by competing moneyed factions without any particular ideological impetus. However it seems that the stakes this time are higher. If there has been a “feudal” structure in place, is this something that is now impaired? If yes, is this only because Thaksin’s money has effectively been able to out-bid the royal family/government – and therefore, just temporary – or, have the expectations of the recipients become fundamentally altered to the point where the traditional formula will no longer work? Alternatively (or, in addition), could this movement be about the presence of a disruptive third force (middle class “professionals”) that simply don’t fit into the traditional political order and finally have the influence to lobby for a share of opportunity?
This picture has been covered on the р╕Др╕Щр╣Ар╕лр╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Щр╕Бр╕▒р╕Щ “Khon Muean Kan” webboard. For the full disgracefulness of the scene, scroll down to post # 18 (by “King р╣Вр╕Ир╕гр╕Ыр╕ер╣Йр╕Щр╣Гр╕И” – thread by Somsak), which contains pictures where Aphisit can be seen prostrating himself next to the dog in front of Bhumibol.
Of course this kind of thing is a stunt, and you could find a thousand other examples.
But the real point is that one can freely make such comments/criticisms of Thaksin’s family (and even be encouraged to do so), but one can not do the same with Bhumibol and his family (at least in Thailand, and even outside Thailand people are very hesitant to publicly attack the Thai royal family).
So, as long as the lese majeste law is in effect, the result of such stories as this one, repeated endlessly in the media and the blogosphere, is to smear Thaksin (much of which is no doubt deserved) but to leave Bhumibol and his family, whose behavior is infinitely more reprehensible that Thaksin’s, virtually untouched.
I am afraid that Soe Thane is right – there is no political advantage for any Western leader to deviate from ASSK’s line – on the contrary – they can pursue all sorts of dubious policies elsewhere, refuse to meet the Dalai Lama, but as long as they outdo eachother in support for ASSK they can call themselves good guys.
One Obama aide memorably said during the 2008 presidential campaign that the United States treats Myanmar as a “boutique” issue –focused solely on human rights and the fate of Aung San Suu Kyi. There should be more thought go into a policy towards a country of 52 million people than that.
Grant Evans: Readers should be aware that while Don Sambandaraksa is a veritable whiz-kid on telecoms issues, he is also _ and he makes no secret of it _ a fervent PAD supporter who blogs and Twitters as Smartbrain. Caveat emptor.
Many of “foot soldiers” may receive much more than what McDonald offers to pay. But many more are willing to attend the 12-14 rallies without payment out of personal conviction to fight against injustice and double standards under this military-dominated govt.
Right now Thursday afternoon, people are massing near the shopping center in Lad Prao after they heard unofficial reports that People Channel TV (its station is in that building) will be closed down. By closing this station, the Abhisit govt will certainly repeat the same mistake that Thaksin did when his officials remove Sonthi’s weekly program from Channel 9. Sonthi’s rallies became bigger at that time and this time, more red shirts will attend the 12-14 March rallies for the same reason.
Hla Oo, I mean that rather than it being a depressing story, what you’ve written is uplifting because you’re still here to write it down. Tragedy and trauma are usually good, cathartic things for other people to digest.
Tarrin – your remark is civilised, but I hope this post is not going to degenerate into yet more boring CP-bashing.
It is often very hard for the son of a great man to follow in his father’s footsteps : just look at Mahatma Ghandi’s son !!
Or US Founding Father John Quincy Adams’ sons.
HRH is doing well, and more popular than malicious maligners such as Paul Handley, wrongly say.
Bangkok Post’s writer for their column, ‘Database,’ Don Sambandaraksa, ‘The fallout from Thaksin’s judgement day and how it affects Thailand’s telcos,’ has what strikes me as an objective and compelling assessment of the political manipulation of the telocommunications industry to favour Thaksin’s fortune – or indeed to stop it from being wiped out. I don’t know how to post it, but recommend it to readers.
We now understand the underlying reasons behind the previous decades’ maneuvering on, “human rights,” “the West,” and the “anti-China” game.
In my opinion, Myanmar’s phenomenon is correlated with classes of event in other part of the world such as the global ethnic conflicts in the oil rich Nigeria, Xinjiang, Malaysia. Thus, it would require an understanding of the “new forms” of the game in order to prepare for the “cost associated with the effort” that the other side will impose on the constructive engagement approach.
The debate has ended with the conclusion that the expected marginal gain for the sanction is nonexistent. It has no support and is, therefore, believed to be sure to fail. The constructive engagement approach has a much higher probability of succeeding because it converges an evaluation of political economy and national security considerations.
@arthurson: “Releasing [ASSK] from house arrest is the junta’s ultimate “get out of jail free” card.”
Yes, you’re right. But, I think the SPDC is very aware of this – I wouldn’t surprised if she is released after the election. Would be an awfully useful way to quiet any complaints re the freeness/fairness of the election.
Whether a *free* ASSK after the election matters materially for most of the country is it’s own debate. It’ll be pretty tough for opponents of engagement to maintain that line if the #1 issue on most international Burma wish lists has been granted.
Something to consider, at least, before one decides to focus first on top-level national politics rather than the day-to-day situation for the farmers and workers that make up the country…
(1) Targeted sanctions on specific people (like Than Shwe or Teza) or organizations (like army owned companies) – few have any real problem with this, though many might doubt their effectiveness.
(2) General economic sanctions (on trade, investment etc) and the various boycott campaigns. Anti-sanctions people will say this has contributed hugely to continuing poverty. The pro-sanctions people will say its the government’s own policies to blame. I would suggest it’s both. There’s more than enough blame (and poverty) to go around.
(3) Extremely low-levels of funding for aid. No one says they are in favour of this but it happens, even for areas where access is good (like the delta this past year and a half). This leads to the unnecessary death of tens of thousands of people every year. To say ‘well the government should use its gas money’ is like stopping a fireman going to a fire and saying its all the arsonists fault.
On following the lead of ASSK: SHE’S ONE PERSON. Is Western policy to start a cult of infallibility? Are we trying to install a new pope? Sure, listen to her views but think for yourself and decide for yourself. Basically, Western democracies are saying “the democracy movement is all about one person” and apparently sees not irony in that.
On following the lead of the exiles: when are we ever going to learn? How about listening to Chalabi and the INC and the hidden WMD? Have the Cuban exiles been a force for creative thinking in Cuban policy? And who knows what most of them think? We only hear from a handful, especially those who are professional lobbyists and paid activists. Most of them haven’t been in Burma for decades.
The tragedy is that for Western governments Burma is too unimportant to doing anything other than listen to ASSK and the exiles. This will go on for years more. Then it will be too late.
The white Supremacist thing was a bit of a wind-up – I am happy to withdraw it with apologies!
What is serious is the point that it takes great courage to maintain with such fierce certainty the line of isolation that (we think) ASSK holds, in the face of evidence accepted by many observers, NGOs and educated Burmese, that the effects of isolation from the West damage the lives and prospects of the Burmese people living in Burma.
HRK – For the record, I am not in favour of, nor do I condone, any form of corruption. Elsewhere on NM http://www.newmandala.org/2010/03/02/the-moral-economy-of-corruption/, Andrew Walker has commented on the moral dimension of corruption in rural communities, which seems to me to be little more than evidence of people’s indignation at being excluded from the party and, ultimately, simple self-serving protectionism. Rather like many of the key players in Thailand’s political circus, past and present.
Returning to this thread, I think that many of the arguments here aim to over simplify or compartmentalise an extremely complex issue, a Western characteristic. Armchair discussions of this sort make me feel very uneasy because any analysis or comment (including my own) are usually the results of second guessing.
Where is the hard on the ground evidence that rural communities faired any better under Thaksin than the the current government? I still see numerous soft news items about corruption and hardship in the provinces, as I did 4 years ago.
Do we really think that the rural people are raising their collective voice in protest against the obvious, at least to us, inequalites and class divisions in Thailand?
Do we really believe that if push comes to shove, the rural folk of N/NE Thailand will support a radical change to the current order of things?
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Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
I’m a Vietnamese, reading news recently bring me so much anger with the chinese.
For thousands of year, they have been tried to invade Vietnam and their neighborhood. Now, Mekong river is dried up because of their dams, yet they said there is “no proof” of their dam is making Mekong River dried…
And conference? Invitation to see their dam and it’s impact? Just like The Frog said up above my comment here, it’s a shame that people can’t just put a jacket on.
China is ruining Mekong Detal River’s culture and it’s people and use mekong for their source of income, for a living. There are people who lived on boat and sail everyday with the mekong river, they live with it.
This’s not just about Nature, it’s also about political.
Can someone stop china from being like this? Please?
Duc, From Vietnam
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
JohnH @18 your point about the risks of attempting to compartmentalize or simplify these demonstrations is well taken. I’ve been grappling for months (years?) trying to understand some of the root motivations behind what is happening without coming to any conclusions.
Perhaps these demonstrations are the same as many others (but certainly not all) over the past 50+ years – driven by competing moneyed factions without any particular ideological impetus. However it seems that the stakes this time are higher. If there has been a “feudal” structure in place, is this something that is now impaired? If yes, is this only because Thaksin’s money has effectively been able to out-bid the royal family/government – and therefore, just temporary – or, have the expectations of the recipients become fundamentally altered to the point where the traditional formula will no longer work? Alternatively (or, in addition), could this movement be about the presence of a disruptive third force (middle class “professionals”) that simply don’t fit into the traditional political order and finally have the influence to lobby for a share of opportunity?
Abhisit cancels Australia trip
This picture has been covered on the р╕Др╕Щр╣Ар╕лр╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Щр╕Бр╕▒р╕Щ “Khon Muean Kan” webboard. For the full disgracefulness of the scene, scroll down to post # 18 (by “King р╣Вр╕Ир╕гр╕Ыр╕ер╣Йр╕Щр╣Гр╕И” – thread by Somsak), which contains pictures where Aphisit can be seen prostrating himself next to the dog in front of Bhumibol.
The wages of Paethongtan Shinawatra
Of course this kind of thing is a stunt, and you could find a thousand other examples.
But the real point is that one can freely make such comments/criticisms of Thaksin’s family (and even be encouraged to do so), but one can not do the same with Bhumibol and his family (at least in Thailand, and even outside Thailand people are very hesitant to publicly attack the Thai royal family).
So, as long as the lese majeste law is in effect, the result of such stories as this one, repeated endlessly in the media and the blogosphere, is to smear Thaksin (much of which is no doubt deserved) but to leave Bhumibol and his family, whose behavior is infinitely more reprehensible that Thaksin’s, virtually untouched.
So I just question the purpose of such posts.
Abhisit cancels Australia trip
Aladdin must prefer cats then, I presume?
Sulaiman on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
chris beale @2: Can you explain what you mean by he “is doing well”? And what is the measure of popularity you’re relying on?
Never-ending Burma debate
I am afraid that Soe Thane is right – there is no political advantage for any Western leader to deviate from ASSK’s line – on the contrary – they can pursue all sorts of dubious policies elsewhere, refuse to meet the Dalai Lama, but as long as they outdo eachother in support for ASSK they can call themselves good guys.
One Obama aide memorably said during the 2008 presidential campaign that the United States treats Myanmar as a “boutique” issue –focused solely on human rights and the fate of Aung San Suu Kyi. There should be more thought go into a policy towards a country of 52 million people than that.
Making sense of the verdict
Grant Evans: Readers should be aware that while Don Sambandaraksa is a veritable whiz-kid on telecoms issues, he is also _ and he makes no secret of it _ a fervent PAD supporter who blogs and Twitters as Smartbrain. Caveat emptor.
Damned Chinese: mighty Mekong a memory
[…] Walker, writing for the New Mandala, blogs about the drying up of Mekong River in Indochina. Cancel this […]
Burma’s (male) military
[…] Farrelly, writing for New Mandala, writes a short note about the role of women military officers in Myanmar. Cancel this […]
The wages of Paethongtan Shinawatra
Many of “foot soldiers” may receive much more than what McDonald offers to pay. But many more are willing to attend the 12-14 rallies without payment out of personal conviction to fight against injustice and double standards under this military-dominated govt.
Right now Thursday afternoon, people are massing near the shopping center in Lad Prao after they heard unofficial reports that People Channel TV (its station is in that building) will be closed down. By closing this station, the Abhisit govt will certainly repeat the same mistake that Thaksin did when his officials remove Sonthi’s weekly program from Channel 9. Sonthi’s rallies became bigger at that time and this time, more red shirts will attend the 12-14 March rallies for the same reason.
The scourge of Burma, Part 3
Hla Oo, I mean that rather than it being a depressing story, what you’ve written is uplifting because you’re still here to write it down. Tragedy and trauma are usually good, cathartic things for other people to digest.
ANU has an e-press. http://epress.anu.edu.au/editorial.html
Good luck being the ‘next’ whomever!
Sulaiman on Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn
Tarrin – your remark is civilised, but I hope this post is not going to degenerate into yet more boring CP-bashing.
It is often very hard for the son of a great man to follow in his father’s footsteps : just look at Mahatma Ghandi’s son !!
Or US Founding Father John Quincy Adams’ sons.
HRH is doing well, and more popular than malicious maligners such as Paul Handley, wrongly say.
Making sense of the verdict
Bangkok Post’s writer for their column, ‘Database,’ Don Sambandaraksa, ‘The fallout from Thaksin’s judgement day and how it affects Thailand’s telcos,’ has what strikes me as an objective and compelling assessment of the political manipulation of the telocommunications industry to favour Thaksin’s fortune – or indeed to stop it from being wiped out. I don’t know how to post it, but recommend it to readers.
Never-ending Burma debate
We now understand the underlying reasons behind the previous decades’ maneuvering on, “human rights,” “the West,” and the “anti-China” game.
In my opinion, Myanmar’s phenomenon is correlated with classes of event in other part of the world such as the global ethnic conflicts in the oil rich Nigeria, Xinjiang, Malaysia. Thus, it would require an understanding of the “new forms” of the game in order to prepare for the “cost associated with the effort” that the other side will impose on the constructive engagement approach.
The debate has ended with the conclusion that the expected marginal gain for the sanction is nonexistent. It has no support and is, therefore, believed to be sure to fail. The constructive engagement approach has a much higher probability of succeeding because it converges an evaluation of political economy and national security considerations.
Never-ending Burma debate
@arthurson: “Releasing [ASSK] from house arrest is the junta’s ultimate “get out of jail free” card.”
Yes, you’re right. But, I think the SPDC is very aware of this – I wouldn’t surprised if she is released after the election. Would be an awfully useful way to quiet any complaints re the freeness/fairness of the election.
Whether a *free* ASSK after the election matters materially for most of the country is it’s own debate. It’ll be pretty tough for opponents of engagement to maintain that line if the #1 issue on most international Burma wish lists has been granted.
Something to consider, at least, before one decides to focus first on top-level national politics rather than the day-to-day situation for the farmers and workers that make up the country…
Never-ending Burma debate
Sanctions generally refer to three things:
(1) Targeted sanctions on specific people (like Than Shwe or Teza) or organizations (like army owned companies) – few have any real problem with this, though many might doubt their effectiveness.
(2) General economic sanctions (on trade, investment etc) and the various boycott campaigns. Anti-sanctions people will say this has contributed hugely to continuing poverty. The pro-sanctions people will say its the government’s own policies to blame. I would suggest it’s both. There’s more than enough blame (and poverty) to go around.
(3) Extremely low-levels of funding for aid. No one says they are in favour of this but it happens, even for areas where access is good (like the delta this past year and a half). This leads to the unnecessary death of tens of thousands of people every year. To say ‘well the government should use its gas money’ is like stopping a fireman going to a fire and saying its all the arsonists fault.
On following the lead of ASSK: SHE’S ONE PERSON. Is Western policy to start a cult of infallibility? Are we trying to install a new pope? Sure, listen to her views but think for yourself and decide for yourself. Basically, Western democracies are saying “the democracy movement is all about one person” and apparently sees not irony in that.
On following the lead of the exiles: when are we ever going to learn? How about listening to Chalabi and the INC and the hidden WMD? Have the Cuban exiles been a force for creative thinking in Cuban policy? And who knows what most of them think? We only hear from a handful, especially those who are professional lobbyists and paid activists. Most of them haven’t been in Burma for decades.
The tragedy is that for Western governments Burma is too unimportant to doing anything other than listen to ASSK and the exiles. This will go on for years more. Then it will be too late.
Never-ending Burma debate
The white Supremacist thing was a bit of a wind-up – I am happy to withdraw it with apologies!
What is serious is the point that it takes great courage to maintain with such fierce certainty the line of isolation that (we think) ASSK holds, in the face of evidence accepted by many observers, NGOs and educated Burmese, that the effects of isolation from the West damage the lives and prospects of the Burmese people living in Burma.
The Economist on Red Shirt politics
HRK – For the record, I am not in favour of, nor do I condone, any form of corruption. Elsewhere on NM http://www.newmandala.org/2010/03/02/the-moral-economy-of-corruption/, Andrew Walker has commented on the moral dimension of corruption in rural communities, which seems to me to be little more than evidence of people’s indignation at being excluded from the party and, ultimately, simple self-serving protectionism. Rather like many of the key players in Thailand’s political circus, past and present.
Returning to this thread, I think that many of the arguments here aim to over simplify or compartmentalise an extremely complex issue, a Western characteristic. Armchair discussions of this sort make me feel very uneasy because any analysis or comment (including my own) are usually the results of second guessing.
Where is the hard on the ground evidence that rural communities faired any better under Thaksin than the the current government? I still see numerous soft news items about corruption and hardship in the provinces, as I did 4 years ago.
Do we really think that the rural people are raising their collective voice in protest against the obvious, at least to us, inequalites and class divisions in Thailand?
Do we really believe that if push comes to shove, the rural folk of N/NE Thailand will support a radical change to the current order of things?
Abhisit cancels Australia trip
I’m not sure what you mean Aladdin. All I saw was a pink tie and a yellow tie.