Ditch Thaksin and we might be inclined to listen. Until you do that you will always be tainted by association with a corrupt policeman and his greedy-arse family. Until you do that your voice will have nothing wothwhile to add.
ACTU’s Burrow doesn’t really seem to know what she is talking about. If Jetstar is forced to pull out it will just help Tiger Airways get more business out of Burma as Singaporeans don’t give a stuff about Burmese politics.
Sanctions hurt both Generals and ordinary Burmese, but definitely and brutally harsher on the poor workers. When US and EU abruptly stopped textile imports from Burma it destroyed overnight a steadily growing industry that employed almost quarter a million Burmese women and girls. Many of the unemployed females ended up in so-called entertainment industry as karaoke girls or massage parlor girls or worse as prostitutes.
The so-called Burmese exiles now enjoying newly found comfortable lives in the West and ruthlessly calling for harsher sanctions should have known that particular case of human suffering.
Today, Kurt Campbell the assistant secretary of state for Asia, said a long-running policy review by the U.S. had concluded that the Myanmar leadership was eager for dialogue. The U.S. intends to pursue that interest but insisted it would keep sanctions and keep pressing the military regime on democracy. However, Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, the Chairman of East Asia Affairs, subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee thinks the current policy has isolated Myanmar people from the international community and made it hard to bring cultural and political change to the country.
There are various reasons why ASEAN countries, China and India refuse to follow the U.S. economic sanction approach. It has been perceived that the U.S. applied double standards in single out only Myanmar when Thailand’s democratization has also been manipulated by the military. Imposing economic sanctions based on democratic values and norms without taking into account the strategic ramifications, has push Myanmar toward acquiring nuclear weapons in defending its sovereignty and regime change from the superpower. This perceived threat definitely is working against the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In other words, the U.S. foreign policy increases the spread of nuclear weapons.
In addition, before imposing a certain form of politics, the stage of the country’s economic base should be taken into consideration. During the Cold War era, while the countries under the U.S. Sphere of Influence underwent the industrialization process following the export-oriented model, Myanmar leaders joined the non-aligned camp and rejected market economy development. While Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea recognized their economic policy mistakes and adjusted during the 1980s-1990s, Myanmar didn’t do so due to its preoccupied with internal problems. As a result, Myanmar falls behind its neighboring countries in term of economic growth. During the transformation period, laying the market economy infrastructure, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines had authoritarian regimes. These countries now have a higher gross national product yet they still have difficulty in transition to democracy as we see in Thailand. Foreign policy that puts the emphasis only on the political culture of democratic norms without taking into the consideration the political economy of the economic base would only be seen as naive and bullying a smaller, weaker country.
Lastly, with dominant historical legacies and a wealth of natural resources, Myanmar is one of the major de facto powers in Southeast Asia. In order to understand Myanmar leaders’ psychology and perception, it is important to understand the country’s historical experiences. Myanmar experienced a direct colonial rule under the British, this had a strong imprint on Myanmar leaders’ emotions and pride to the point that they changed the name from Burma to Myanmar. President Obama states that the U.S. will not rely only on military measures but will include diplomacy, development, and intelligence instruments in the projection of its foreign policy. He emphasizes the importance of making the world understand U.S. principles and values in opportunity, liberty, progress, and mutual respects among nations.
I believe understanding Myanmar economic background, the role of pride, and the ramification of nuclear proliferation, would avert future serious disaster in Southeast Asia region.
A popular joke here in Sydney goes like that. A middle-aged couple from Sydney went to Bangkok and dropped in for their first dinner at a famous restaurant. After the meal, the waitress asked their opinion. Their answer was, “This is nothing like in Sydney and you bloody hell called it Thai food?”
They are so used to awfully un-Thai-liked Australianised Thai food in Sydney that they didn’t enjoy their authentic Thai meal in Thailand at all.
From cheap corner shops to many glorified, i.e. really expensive, Thai restaurants the Thai food in Sydney has been miserably modified, enlarged to huge Aussie serves, and tastelessly prepared by many so-called Thai cooks who had never cooked a meal back home in Thailand. Most of them are either illegals or students trying to survive or make money in Sydney.
The result is many Thais I know will rather eat sushi or pizza than having a Thai meal in Sydney.
р╕Жр╕▓р╕П is an archaic spelling of р╕Жр╕▓р╕Х, and is now obsolete. That actually adds to the covers authenticity, doesn’t it?
As for р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡, anyone who has lived there can tell you р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡ is still a common variant pronunciation of the name, even if that spelling is no longer common (but still well attested — 17,000 reported Google hits). The spelling р╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣М, a variant form of the same name, can be seen in this 1903 document (PDF) from the Royal Gazette (“р╣Бр╕Ир╣Йр╕Зр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕бр╣Ар╕гр╕╖р╣Ир╕нр╕Зр╕вр╣Йр╕▓р╕вр╕Бр╕нр╕Зр╣Ар╕Бр╕йр╕Хр╕гр╣Мр╣Гр╕Щр╕нр╕│р╣Ар╕ар╕нр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╣Др╕Ыр╕Чр╕│р╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Гр╕Щр╕нр╕│р╣Ар╕ар╕нр╕гр╕▓р╕Кр╕Ър╕╣р╕гр╕Ур╕░”). While р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡ is the official spelling, it’s entirely reasonable to expect a spelling that reflects the colloquial pronunciation in an unofficial publication (for entertainment, no less) such as this one.
The ball is now in your court with respect to burden of proof.
Sam -Deedes. The ratio of officers to soldiers in the Thai army is 30x what it is in the US army. I noticed my friend the general seemed to have a lot of spare time so I asked him what he did on a typical day. He replied that as he had an inactive post he didn’t really do anything he reports for duty in the morning, the commanding officer reads a state of the nation report then they all have breakfast after that he is free for the rest of the day. he explained that while an inactive post ensured an easy life an active post is preferred as with an active post there is always a chance of making money. According to the general the most exciting time in the military is when a royal event is coming up, waiting to see who is chosen to be in attendance. This is a chance to put on the best dress uniform complete with accumulated medals and rub shoulders with the royals. As long as the military protects the royalty and the royalty protects the military they ensured an easy life.
I hope you are proved right but I won’t hold my breath. A marriage of convenience sounds good and even like that tradition of the royal houses of old, but the physical image doesn’t bear thinking about as you said.
Khin Nyunt was deemed moderate (though not something everyone will agree with) and change was also then in the air. Power sharing began to be mooted, but didn’t bear thinking about on the part of Than Shwe Inc., and the rest as they say is history. Some including Western analysts still talk about KN’s comeback, but does he have a real following in the army?
Unfortunately for Burma there seems no sign of a de Klerk on the horizon, no Tatmadaw knight in shining armour coming to the rescue of our damsel under house arrest.
I think it’s impossible to go back to ‘first principles’ for a study because there are no ‘first principles’ in international relations (which would be the area of study when talking about sanctions.) Unless we’re talking about a principle of all states developing democractic institutions (a self determining process)…
I think really there can only be the ‘first principles’ of a state and one of those first principles is self determination. However, maybe that’s what you are highlighting with regards to the Unions’ (or at least Shazza’s) myopic position – that to even fund a study looking at the ‘efficacy’ of sanctions would educate and prove to them that sanctions are inadequate, since they would (or are?) be unwilling to listen (or read from) to.. say an expert?
For me, sanctions go hand in hand with Myanmar’s rhetoric of self-determination. If there was no anti-neo-colonial self-determining rhetoric from the Junta, then I don’t think there would be ‘symbolic’ sanctions because there would be a different paradigm for Myanmar to forge its development in. The current sanctions ultimately play into the Junta’s favour because, with my limited eye, they don’t attack anything that the Junta hasn’t made a justification for which directly supports (their own) ‘self-determination.’ So yes, “Western” foreign policy toward Myanmar seems to just sadly mirror the Junta’s own sad agenda…
This just popped up on my radar moments ago and I laughed heartily today when I read a story on Agent France Presse that said:
Zetty Brake, a spokeswoman for the Burma Campaign Australia, said most Myanmar residents would be unable to afford the flights.
“The people that are using these services from Burma are people with links to the regime,” she told AFP.
I’m not disputing most people can’t afford the flights, but anybody who has flown on the Jetstar services to Singapore would know a large proportion of passengers are leaving Myanmar to try and earn some money that they will then send back to their families. Remittances such as these are a crucial “lifeline” for hundreds of thousands of families and people working in Singapore can earn significantly more than in Thailand.
Besides, well connected people would be flying Silk Air, not Jetstar.
It’s sad to see this kind of rubbish still being trotted out.
First of all Charles F., Than Shwe has certainly not been allowed to travel to the U.S.
His Prime Minister, Thein Sein, is currently at the UNGA – perhaps you confused the names? This is the first time someone of that rank has visited the U.S. in 14 years. Additionally, concessions were made for the Foreign Minister, U Nyan Win, who was allowed to leave the usual 25km radius of the UN building in NYC; he spent a day visiting the Myanmar Embassy, the White House, and the Smithsonian in Washington, D.C.
Back to the main point…
The recent announcement of the U.S.’s new game plan for Myanmar has been interesting for a lot of long-term watchers. What remains to be seen is whether engagement, just as much as sanctions have been, will itself remain “limited, Western, symbolic”. It is hard to put much faith in a country whose foreign policy has been so flawed and so harmful towards the people of Myanmar for 20 years. While little diplomatic concessions are being made by each side (the release of Yettaw, the granting of meetings with Sen. Webb and both Than Shwe and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi vis-a-vis the visa grant to Thein Sein, the D.C. concessions), it remains to be seen what of the new engagement policy will remain (like much of the Obama administration’s foreign policy) only rhetoric, and what will be actualized.
As for Australia – the interesting part to me is that Australia’s foreign policy towards Myanmar is at times the most progressive of the Western countries (no blanket sanctions, only targeted financial/travel sanctions), but at the same time when it comes to business investment, DFAT maintains a strict “not promoting, but not condemning” policy that allows a lot of room for failure. Any Australian business can come to Myanmar and partner with unsavoury mega-companies run by cronies. DFAT would be better to promote small scale investment in industries where family and small businesses can be invested in, rather than allowing (with a hands off approach) big Australian companies to provide characters like Steven Law and U Tay Zar with more cash.
One can argue that “Sanctions have worked”. The generals are now openly asking for sanctions to be stopped, it shows they are hurting. It may not be the result that the world wants, there is now a sliver of hope, at the very least a dialogue has begun.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/28/AR2009092803761.html
Myanmar’s prime minister, General Thein Sein, on Monday demanded an end to economic sanctions in an address to the UN General Assembly.”Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar and we consider them unjust,” said Thein Sein, the highest-ranking Myanmar official to address the General Assembly in 14 years. “Such acts must be stopped.”
More important and immediately effective would be an end to the double economy functioning within Burma. So long as the profits that the government is receiving, from Total yes, but more from Thailand and soon to be China, from natural gas exports are declared at the official and highly inflated rate the country’s economy will appear to be weak and susceptible to sanctions. In reality, as Sean Turnell has written most convincingly, the economy is in surplus and the government is able to maintain their underdeveloped economically crippled image while funding a new capital and obtaining a nuclear reactor.
Superficial appraisals of Burma’s economy maintain the idea that sanctions can achieve anything in Burma. The government has proven itself most adept at overcoming any economic hardships, first with aid funding and now with gas profits, and if sanctions have achieved anything it is to make the government more insulated from their effects. Sanctions have instead encouraged increased relations with North Korea, Russia and Iran for their diplomatic and economic protection.
Charles F is correct to point out that western sanctions have never been as draconian some would like to believe. There is a Lonely Planet guide to the country after all which basically suggest that more travellers will bring political change; we’ve seen how well that has worked out. Of course, it doesn’t necessarily follow that western sanction would work if only they had been and are stricter. Still, it should keep in mind that where there is real money to be made in oil or mining or whatever, sanctions have basically been limited, as the post noted.
I’m also a bit confused because if I remember correctly Thailand has plenty of KFCs and McDonald’s but based on what I read here democracy isn’t exactly flourishing these days. Is the solution to Thailand’s political problems another fast food franchise?
The quickest way to unseat Than Shwe wouldn’t be more burgers, but more bullets. Give the Kachins, Karens and Wa, and anyone else that wants to fight the regime all the guns and ammuntion they can use. The aftermath may not be pretty, but that is the only realistic way to change the regime’s behavior. Not that the American, Austrialian or European governments would ever go that far, so the future of Burma looks like more oppression with burger and fries.
Change is definitely in the air. With the junta’s PM talking to Obama’s senior ranks on the UN sidelines; with ASSK writing an open letter to Than Shwe, offering her services.
Burma, during Ne Win’s reign was compared to Suharto’s Indonesia, that comparison has stopped; we have also gone pass the seemingly opportunistic junture of Cori Aquino as well. Burma may not get the regime change it wants so much — not right away.
But we are looking at a marriage of convenience – a Mugabe/Tsvangirai; a Botha/Mandela — unpleasant as it may sound, a Than Shwe/Suu Kyi marriage. Than Shwe is getting on in age and he will not want a repeat of what he did to Ne Win.
The generals and their families can obtain anything they want from the shops in Singapore, which includes western made products.
They use the money given to them by firms such as Total, which could care less about sanctions.
The American govt., in the form of Senator Jim Webb, and head of the U.S. State Dept., Hillary Clinton, have now allowed Snr. Gen. Than Shwe to travel to the U.S. Upon his return to Burma Than Shwe will no doubt crow about how he outlasted the puny sanctions.
Anyone thinking that this new opening will moderate the generals is sadly deluding himself – they have been given the green light to continue their oppressive policies. The genocidal war being waged against the ethnic minorities will undoubtedly increase.
Another big loser will be China. Clinton and Webb have just dealt Than Shwe an ace. He will use it to trump Chinese threats on their common border.
Chris, we are used to your royalist rants now. It is good to know that they retain your loyal support. As usual, though, you rant with no details that would allow anyone to challenge them. Here you execute an extremely late tackle on Handley. Let’s assume you actually read the book. You say Handley treats Prem badly? Maybe some suggestions on where Handley is wrong might be worthwhile and then we could discuss and debate. But maybe that doesn’t interest you?
You also make audacious claims that not even a muck-raking journalist would make. For example, you credit the king with single-handedly “raising of Thailand from being one of the world’s poorest countries when Bumiphol came to the throne, to it now being one of South-East Asia’s richest.” Ignore everyone else. That’s just plain dopey, and not even the kindest researcher would claim such a royal miracle.
And then you get to a single fact that you think Handley gets wrong. In your view, the Sex Pistols “burst on the scene” with Anarchy in the UK, not God Save the Queen. Hang the point Handley is making. But are you right? Both songs were on their only studio album. Anarchy got to no. 38 in the UK whereas God Save the Queen made it to No. 2 (the highest the Pistols ever got) and was the song that caused so much controversy, made their reputation and charts another couple of times on re-releases (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_Pistols#.E2.80.9CGod_Save_the_Queen.E2.80.9D) and this is what Handley is saying. So based on the facts, I’ll stick with Handley’s version of the Sex Pistols break out (and the point he is making by using this illustration.
Giving out an opinion here, it’s like fighting to a child especially to Ralph Kramden. He will never give up. Always come back with something, anything all the time. It’s a sample of obsessive compulsive disorder here.
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Jakrapob on the state within the state
Ditch Thaksin and we might be inclined to listen. Until you do that you will always be tainted by association with a corrupt policeman and his greedy-arse family. Until you do that your voice will have nothing wothwhile to add.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
ACTU’s Burrow doesn’t really seem to know what she is talking about. If Jetstar is forced to pull out it will just help Tiger Airways get more business out of Burma as Singaporeans don’t give a stuff about Burmese politics.
Sanctions hurt both Generals and ordinary Burmese, but definitely and brutally harsher on the poor workers. When US and EU abruptly stopped textile imports from Burma it destroyed overnight a steadily growing industry that employed almost quarter a million Burmese women and girls. Many of the unemployed females ended up in so-called entertainment industry as karaoke girls or massage parlor girls or worse as prostitutes.
The so-called Burmese exiles now enjoying newly found comfortable lives in the West and ruthlessly calling for harsher sanctions should have known that particular case of human suffering.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Today, Kurt Campbell the assistant secretary of state for Asia, said a long-running policy review by the U.S. had concluded that the Myanmar leadership was eager for dialogue. The U.S. intends to pursue that interest but insisted it would keep sanctions and keep pressing the military regime on democracy. However, Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, the Chairman of East Asia Affairs, subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee thinks the current policy has isolated Myanmar people from the international community and made it hard to bring cultural and political change to the country.
There are various reasons why ASEAN countries, China and India refuse to follow the U.S. economic sanction approach. It has been perceived that the U.S. applied double standards in single out only Myanmar when Thailand’s democratization has also been manipulated by the military. Imposing economic sanctions based on democratic values and norms without taking into account the strategic ramifications, has push Myanmar toward acquiring nuclear weapons in defending its sovereignty and regime change from the superpower. This perceived threat definitely is working against the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In other words, the U.S. foreign policy increases the spread of nuclear weapons.
In addition, before imposing a certain form of politics, the stage of the country’s economic base should be taken into consideration. During the Cold War era, while the countries under the U.S. Sphere of Influence underwent the industrialization process following the export-oriented model, Myanmar leaders joined the non-aligned camp and rejected market economy development. While Vietnam, Laos, Kampuchea recognized their economic policy mistakes and adjusted during the 1980s-1990s, Myanmar didn’t do so due to its preoccupied with internal problems. As a result, Myanmar falls behind its neighboring countries in term of economic growth. During the transformation period, laying the market economy infrastructure, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines had authoritarian regimes. These countries now have a higher gross national product yet they still have difficulty in transition to democracy as we see in Thailand. Foreign policy that puts the emphasis only on the political culture of democratic norms without taking into the consideration the political economy of the economic base would only be seen as naive and bullying a smaller, weaker country.
Lastly, with dominant historical legacies and a wealth of natural resources, Myanmar is one of the major de facto powers in Southeast Asia. In order to understand Myanmar leaders’ psychology and perception, it is important to understand the country’s historical experiences. Myanmar experienced a direct colonial rule under the British, this had a strong imprint on Myanmar leaders’ emotions and pride to the point that they changed the name from Burma to Myanmar. President Obama states that the U.S. will not rely only on military measures but will include diplomacy, development, and intelligence instruments in the projection of its foreign policy. He emphasizes the importance of making the world understand U.S. principles and values in opportunity, liberty, progress, and mutual respects among nations.
I believe understanding Myanmar economic background, the role of pride, and the ramification of nuclear proliferation, would avert future serious disaster in Southeast Asia region.
Thai food better in Sydney
A popular joke here in Sydney goes like that. A middle-aged couple from Sydney went to Bangkok and dropped in for their first dinner at a famous restaurant. After the meal, the waitress asked their opinion. Their answer was, “This is nothing like in Sydney and you bloody hell called it Thai food?”
They are so used to awfully un-Thai-liked Australianised Thai food in Sydney that they didn’t enjoy their authentic Thai meal in Thailand at all.
From cheap corner shops to many glorified, i.e. really expensive, Thai restaurants the Thai food in Sydney has been miserably modified, enlarged to huge Aussie serves, and tastelessly prepared by many so-called Thai cooks who had never cooked a meal back home in Thailand. Most of them are either illegals or students trying to survive or make money in Sydney.
The result is many Thais I know will rather eat sushi or pizza than having a Thai meal in Sydney.
Another taboo broken
Chris Beale, maybe you can’t fly a plane – but you certainly can fly a kite!
Even more Thai ephemera
Susie, have a look at the Royal Institute Dictionary:
р╕Жр╕▓р╕П (р╣Вр╕Ъ; р╣Ар╕ер╕┤р╕Б) р╕Щ. р╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╕Жр╣Ир╕▓, р╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╕Чр╣Нр╕▓р╕ер╕▓р╕в. р╕Б. р╕Хр╕╡.
р╕Жр╕▓р╕П is an archaic spelling of р╕Жр╕▓р╕Х, and is now obsolete. That actually adds to the covers authenticity, doesn’t it?
As for р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡, anyone who has lived there can tell you р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡ is still a common variant pronunciation of the name, even if that spelling is no longer common (but still well attested — 17,000 reported Google hits). The spelling р╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣М, a variant form of the same name, can be seen in this 1903 document (PDF) from the Royal Gazette (“р╣Бр╕Ир╣Йр╕Зр╕Др╕зр╕▓р╕бр╣Ар╕гр╕╖р╣Ир╕нр╕Зр╕вр╣Йр╕▓р╕вр╕Бр╕нр╕Зр╣Ар╕Бр╕йр╕Хр╕гр╣Мр╣Гр╕Щр╕нр╕│р╣Ар╕ар╕нр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╣Мр╣Др╕Ыр╕Чр╕│р╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Гр╕Щр╕нр╕│р╣Ар╕ар╕нр╕гр╕▓р╕Кр╕Ър╕╣р╕гр╕Ур╕░”). While р╕Щр╕Щр╕Чр╕Ър╕╕р╕гр╕╡ is the official spelling, it’s entirely reasonable to expect a spelling that reflects the colloquial pronunciation in an unofficial publication (for entertainment, no less) such as this one.
The ball is now in your court with respect to burden of proof.
Jakrapob on the state within the state
Sam -Deedes. The ratio of officers to soldiers in the Thai army is 30x what it is in the US army. I noticed my friend the general seemed to have a lot of spare time so I asked him what he did on a typical day. He replied that as he had an inactive post he didn’t really do anything he reports for duty in the morning, the commanding officer reads a state of the nation report then they all have breakfast after that he is free for the rest of the day. he explained that while an inactive post ensured an easy life an active post is preferred as with an active post there is always a chance of making money. According to the general the most exciting time in the military is when a royal event is coming up, waiting to see who is chosen to be in attendance. This is a chance to put on the best dress uniform complete with accumulated medals and rub shoulders with the royals. As long as the military protects the royalty and the royalty protects the military they ensured an easy life.
A Sino-Burmese border dance
Bamar,
I hope you are proved right but I won’t hold my breath. A marriage of convenience sounds good and even like that tradition of the royal houses of old, but the physical image doesn’t bear thinking about as you said.
Khin Nyunt was deemed moderate (though not something everyone will agree with) and change was also then in the air. Power sharing began to be mooted, but didn’t bear thinking about on the part of Than Shwe Inc., and the rest as they say is history. Some including Western analysts still talk about KN’s comeback, but does he have a real following in the army?
Unfortunately for Burma there seems no sign of a de Klerk on the horizon, no Tatmadaw knight in shining armour coming to the rescue of our damsel under house arrest.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
I think it’s impossible to go back to ‘first principles’ for a study because there are no ‘first principles’ in international relations (which would be the area of study when talking about sanctions.) Unless we’re talking about a principle of all states developing democractic institutions (a self determining process)…
I think really there can only be the ‘first principles’ of a state and one of those first principles is self determination. However, maybe that’s what you are highlighting with regards to the Unions’ (or at least Shazza’s) myopic position – that to even fund a study looking at the ‘efficacy’ of sanctions would educate and prove to them that sanctions are inadequate, since they would (or are?) be unwilling to listen (or read from) to.. say an expert?
For me, sanctions go hand in hand with Myanmar’s rhetoric of self-determination. If there was no anti-neo-colonial self-determining rhetoric from the Junta, then I don’t think there would be ‘symbolic’ sanctions because there would be a different paradigm for Myanmar to forge its development in. The current sanctions ultimately play into the Junta’s favour because, with my limited eye, they don’t attack anything that the Junta hasn’t made a justification for which directly supports (their own) ‘self-determination.’ So yes, “Western” foreign policy toward Myanmar seems to just sadly mirror the Junta’s own sad agenda…
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Dylan Grey is correct – I confused the names.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
This just popped up on my radar moments ago and I laughed heartily today when I read a story on Agent France Presse that said:
Zetty Brake, a spokeswoman for the Burma Campaign Australia, said most Myanmar residents would be unable to afford the flights.
“The people that are using these services from Burma are people with links to the regime,” she told AFP.
I’m not disputing most people can’t afford the flights, but anybody who has flown on the Jetstar services to Singapore would know a large proportion of passengers are leaving Myanmar to try and earn some money that they will then send back to their families. Remittances such as these are a crucial “lifeline” for hundreds of thousands of families and people working in Singapore can earn significantly more than in Thailand.
Besides, well connected people would be flying Silk Air, not Jetstar.
It’s sad to see this kind of rubbish still being trotted out.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
First of all Charles F., Than Shwe has certainly not been allowed to travel to the U.S.
His Prime Minister, Thein Sein, is currently at the UNGA – perhaps you confused the names? This is the first time someone of that rank has visited the U.S. in 14 years. Additionally, concessions were made for the Foreign Minister, U Nyan Win, who was allowed to leave the usual 25km radius of the UN building in NYC; he spent a day visiting the Myanmar Embassy, the White House, and the Smithsonian in Washington, D.C.
Back to the main point…
The recent announcement of the U.S.’s new game plan for Myanmar has been interesting for a lot of long-term watchers. What remains to be seen is whether engagement, just as much as sanctions have been, will itself remain “limited, Western, symbolic”. It is hard to put much faith in a country whose foreign policy has been so flawed and so harmful towards the people of Myanmar for 20 years. While little diplomatic concessions are being made by each side (the release of Yettaw, the granting of meetings with Sen. Webb and both Than Shwe and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi vis-a-vis the visa grant to Thein Sein, the D.C. concessions), it remains to be seen what of the new engagement policy will remain (like much of the Obama administration’s foreign policy) only rhetoric, and what will be actualized.
As for Australia – the interesting part to me is that Australia’s foreign policy towards Myanmar is at times the most progressive of the Western countries (no blanket sanctions, only targeted financial/travel sanctions), but at the same time when it comes to business investment, DFAT maintains a strict “not promoting, but not condemning” policy that allows a lot of room for failure. Any Australian business can come to Myanmar and partner with unsavoury mega-companies run by cronies. DFAT would be better to promote small scale investment in industries where family and small businesses can be invested in, rather than allowing (with a hands off approach) big Australian companies to provide characters like Steven Law and U Tay Zar with more cash.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
One can argue that “Sanctions have worked”. The generals are now openly asking for sanctions to be stopped, it shows they are hurting. It may not be the result that the world wants, there is now a sliver of hope, at the very least a dialogue has begun.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/28/AR2009092803761.html
Myanmar’s prime minister, General Thein Sein, on Monday demanded an end to economic sanctions in an address to the UN General Assembly.”Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar and we consider them unjust,” said Thein Sein, the highest-ranking Myanmar official to address the General Assembly in 14 years. “Such acts must be stopped.”
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
More important and immediately effective would be an end to the double economy functioning within Burma. So long as the profits that the government is receiving, from Total yes, but more from Thailand and soon to be China, from natural gas exports are declared at the official and highly inflated rate the country’s economy will appear to be weak and susceptible to sanctions. In reality, as Sean Turnell has written most convincingly, the economy is in surplus and the government is able to maintain their underdeveloped economically crippled image while funding a new capital and obtaining a nuclear reactor.
Superficial appraisals of Burma’s economy maintain the idea that sanctions can achieve anything in Burma. The government has proven itself most adept at overcoming any economic hardships, first with aid funding and now with gas profits, and if sanctions have achieved anything it is to make the government more insulated from their effects. Sanctions have instead encouraged increased relations with North Korea, Russia and Iran for their diplomatic and economic protection.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
Charles F is correct to point out that western sanctions have never been as draconian some would like to believe. There is a Lonely Planet guide to the country after all which basically suggest that more travellers will bring political change; we’ve seen how well that has worked out. Of course, it doesn’t necessarily follow that western sanction would work if only they had been and are stricter. Still, it should keep in mind that where there is real money to be made in oil or mining or whatever, sanctions have basically been limited, as the post noted.
I’m also a bit confused because if I remember correctly Thailand has plenty of KFCs and McDonald’s but based on what I read here democracy isn’t exactly flourishing these days. Is the solution to Thailand’s political problems another fast food franchise?
The quickest way to unseat Than Shwe wouldn’t be more burgers, but more bullets. Give the Kachins, Karens and Wa, and anyone else that wants to fight the regime all the guns and ammuntion they can use. The aftermath may not be pretty, but that is the only realistic way to change the regime’s behavior. Not that the American, Austrialian or European governments would ever go that far, so the future of Burma looks like more oppression with burger and fries.
A Sino-Burmese border dance
Moe Aung,
Change is definitely in the air. With the junta’s PM talking to Obama’s senior ranks on the UN sidelines; with ASSK writing an open letter to Than Shwe, offering her services.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/asiapacific/news/article_1503548.php/Myanmar-opposition-leader-Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-pushes-sanctions-talks
Yangon – Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has requested permission from the ruling junta to talk about lifting economic sanctions with the Australian, US and European embassies, opposition sources said Monday.
Burma, during Ne Win’s reign was compared to Suharto’s Indonesia, that comparison has stopped; we have also gone pass the seemingly opportunistic junture of Cori Aquino as well. Burma may not get the regime change it wants so much — not right away.
But we are looking at a marriage of convenience – a Mugabe/Tsvangirai; a Botha/Mandela — unpleasant as it may sound, a Than Shwe/Suu Kyi marriage. Than Shwe is getting on in age and he will not want a repeat of what he did to Ne Win.
Burma sanctions: limited, Western, symbolic
The sanctions have so far failed.
The generals and their families can obtain anything they want from the shops in Singapore, which includes western made products.
They use the money given to them by firms such as Total, which could care less about sanctions.
The American govt., in the form of Senator Jim Webb, and head of the U.S. State Dept., Hillary Clinton, have now allowed Snr. Gen. Than Shwe to travel to the U.S. Upon his return to Burma Than Shwe will no doubt crow about how he outlasted the puny sanctions.
Anyone thinking that this new opening will moderate the generals is sadly deluding himself – they have been given the green light to continue their oppressive policies. The genocidal war being waged against the ethnic minorities will undoubtedly increase.
Another big loser will be China. Clinton and Webb have just dealt Than Shwe an ace. He will use it to trump Chinese threats on their common border.
Interview with Paul Handley
Chris, we are used to your royalist rants now. It is good to know that they retain your loyal support. As usual, though, you rant with no details that would allow anyone to challenge them. Here you execute an extremely late tackle on Handley. Let’s assume you actually read the book. You say Handley treats Prem badly? Maybe some suggestions on where Handley is wrong might be worthwhile and then we could discuss and debate. But maybe that doesn’t interest you?
You also make audacious claims that not even a muck-raking journalist would make. For example, you credit the king with single-handedly “raising of Thailand from being one of the world’s poorest countries when Bumiphol came to the throne, to it now being one of South-East Asia’s richest.” Ignore everyone else. That’s just plain dopey, and not even the kindest researcher would claim such a royal miracle.
And then you get to a single fact that you think Handley gets wrong. In your view, the Sex Pistols “burst on the scene” with Anarchy in the UK, not God Save the Queen. Hang the point Handley is making. But are you right? Both songs were on their only studio album. Anarchy got to no. 38 in the UK whereas God Save the Queen made it to No. 2 (the highest the Pistols ever got) and was the song that caused so much controversy, made their reputation and charts another couple of times on re-releases (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_Pistols#.E2.80.9CGod_Save_the_Queen.E2.80.9D) and this is what Handley is saying. So based on the facts, I’ll stick with Handley’s version of the Sex Pistols break out (and the point he is making by using this illustration.
King Bhumibol expresses his worries
Giving out an opinion here, it’s like fighting to a child especially to Ralph Kramden. He will never give up. Always come back with something, anything all the time. It’s a sample of obsessive compulsive disorder here.
King Bhumibol expresses his worries
What does it mean to “fly airplanes for charity”? It sounds to me as a contradiction in itself! Sorry…