Thanks for the important and timely piece Richard. Here’s an excellent, complementary article by Kate Shaw from The Age newspaper discussing spatial and policy issues:
My earlier comment here didn’t make it. I didn’t think this was really hilarious enough to be worth Andrew taking the risk of getting banged up for lese majeste. This would be a pretty clear cut case of poking fun at the CP and it would hard for Andrew to elicit international sympathy with either the Nicolaides defence that he was too dim to understand the Thai law or the Ajarn Giles defence that he was expressing a serious academic opinion based on rigorous research.
Michael #29 “… implies disorder, lawlessness, irresponsible action, chaos even” – not exactly the characteristic of a society with a high level of suppression of freedom of expression and action!!! Arguably the extreme opposite in fact – which is my point exactly (and, don’t get, me wrong, I am not proud of it – it’s just the way it is). Nothing “confused” about my arguments on LM here. If most Thais, or a large enough critical mass, are very unhappy with LM laws, it will be abolished. The politicians are the best litmus test here (for they also have the power to change the laws) – if it is a popular, vote-getter, we will see the end of LM laws – this I am certain. In the current context, it is pure political suicide and don’t expect Thai politicians of any color to go for it.
To help you understand my point of view in greater clarity – go to the streets of Bangkok or rural villages in the provinces and ask respondents to list what they would want their politicians, governments to do most for them/the country. I wonder where ‘reform/abolish’ LM laws would be? PMThaksin seem to have the pulse of many Thai voters (whether instinctively or through sophisticated demographic studies) – if he hasn’t promised LM law change in any of his phone-ins, it probably does not register much at all…
Of course, it is a different matter if you are a foreigner who would like to say anything you want anywhere and at anytime. Nothing “confused” in my arguments here as well – in fact, it is very practical. Simply respect the law of the country you are in and it does not have to be Thailand.
Michael#7, another interesting ABAC poll results for you:
“р╣Ар╕нр╣Бр╕Ър╕Др╣Вр╕Юр╕ер╕Хр╕Бр╣Гр╕Ир╕Др╕Щр╕нр╕╡р╕кр╕▓р╕Щ 60%р╣Ар╕лр╣Зр╕Щр╕Фр╣Йр╕зр╕вр╕нр╕ар╕▒р╕вр╣Вр╕Чр╕йр╕Щр╕▒р╕Бр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Чр╕╕р╕Ир╕гр╕┤р╕Х-р╣Гр╕Хр╣Йр╕Др╣Йр╕▓р╕Щр╕лр╕▒р╕зр╕Кр╕Щр╕Эр╕▓р╕гр╣Йр╕нр╕вр╕ер╕░80 р╕Др╕Щр╕Бр╕гр╕╕р╕Зр╕кр╕╣р╕кр╕╡” (Title: “ABAC Poll surprise: 60% of Isan agree with pardoning corrupt politicians – Southerners strongly against by 80% Bangkokians even” – my translation, please feel free to check for accuracy) http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1247389016&grpid=05&catid=01
It does complicate the picture of Thai’s (as measured by polls) perception/tolerance of corruption. If we go by the title, respondents may be thinking of PMThaksin’s particular case. However the findings in the body of the article also points to another interesting pattern, the higher educated the respondents are, the lower their agreement with pardoning corrupt politicians.
To your comments “…Thaksin was quoted as stating that he was going to bring public sector corruption down to an ‘acceptable level,’ 20 – 25% of budget. Imagine what it must have actually been!”
Whatever the exact percentages, urban-based middle-classes seem to have perceived that either PMThaksin bought corruption up to and/or monopolize it to unacceptable levels.
“… I don’t believe the Central Thais will be the salvation of the nation. ” I hypothesize that this is a common belief for foreigners in NM (do correct me if I am wrong) – for me, a conflict among global middle-classes with very similar aspirations, opportunities and lifestyles. Interestingly we (Western and Thai middle-classes) often barrack for the underdog – in this case the Thai poor over the Thai middle class and above.
Otherwise I actually do agree with that statement as I believe the Thai middleclasses and/or Central Thais have done their bit for the broader distribution of political power. I will argue that AjarnPridi and FMPibul are early representatives of the new social group desire for political change with 1973, 1976, 1992, 2006 continuing in that tradition. I see the Reds Riot of 2008 continuing in a tradition begun by the middleclasses by the rural and urban poor in the negotiation for political change in the public spaces of Bangkok. My hunch is that if they can come up with an alternative that is not associated with PMThaksin, the urban-based middleclasses might just go along with it – until the next corruption scandal that is.
Consistent with what the article implies, for me, corruption IS Thai Democracy’s major Achilles Heel – recent ABAC polls have only reinforced and confirmed this for me.
I think this is an excellent contribution, specially the last half. The prime motive of the institutions that sell education to overseas students, and the associated government economic policy is the bottom line of a ledger. They pay lip service to the principles of education while ripping off the students.
The other side of the coin is also an economic one. Most of the students go through the motions of education, but their real motive is economic migration– to ultimately get permanent residency and employment in Australia, where the pay and conditions are better than at home. It is unjust to blame individuals for striving to better their lot in life, but fair to say that governments in the thrall of economics, and institutions run by accountants, have lost sight of the traditions of education. Let the money-making take its rightful place in an all-embracing, people-serving world culture, but not at the head of it.
Just recalled the time around 1996 when I first visited AU as an oversea student in Queenland state. The city of Brisbane was peaceful and nice.
At that time, Paulin Hunson started her politic campaign on discrimination, which caused a problem to asian people there! Some of Asian students walking around the city of Brisbane and got shout badly from some local people. Some got throwing egg (yes, that happened to me & my friend). But most stories we witnessed were only shouting and minor, but no insulting.
It’s sad to heard that the matter got worse when the time pass by…
An ABAC Poll of 1,228 household respondents in 17 provinces across the country at the end of June found that 84.5% of them accept corruption as a normal practice in business and 51.2 percent of them admit they don’t mind if a government is corrupt so long as it manages to bring about prosperity to the country and to improve the livelihood of the people.
Of the respondents, 31.6 percent of them were in the farming sector, 27 of them entrepreneurs, 15.2 percent of them employees and 11.5 percent government officials. Of these, 75 of them had under-graduate level of education.
The poll does not state that Isan has a greater tolerance of corruption than “their urban-based countrymen.” (Sidh #3)
While I cannot argue with your view that the selling of daughters (& I would add sons) is ‘dark,’ I know that practices like these are not limited to Isan, they’re much wider spread. (I include the coercion of young family members to enter the sex trade here & in other countries, in the notion of ‘selling.’) And yes, it is the most despicable aspect of corruption in Thailand. But I think that if we focus on that, we are in danger of missing the point that corruption is widely considered to be O.K. The middle-classes accept it, just as the poor rural people do, although the middle classes are much less likely to push their kids into brothels.
At some stage during his premiership Thaksin was quoted as stating that he was going to bring public sector corruption down to an ‘acceptable level,’ 20 – 25% of budget. Imagine what it must have actually been!
Billions of baht that could be going into improved medical services, education, agriculture, public sector salaries. Sad, eh?
I like Ralph’s comment @ #4. There’s a measure of hope in it. I don’t believe the Central Thais will be the salvation of the nation.
The rural people may be ‘uneducated,’ but I see signs that there are better thinkers among them than the ‘go to shopping’ middle classes in Bangkok. They’re pragmatists, and they are starting to see that they can have power, based on numbers, and they know who in their local communities has kept them under the thumb. If they continue as they have been doing, they’ll have the power before long to give themselves the education they have been denied & start looking after themselves in other ways. I hope that Thaksin will not be a part of that. If he’s not, there will still be corruption problems, but they may be easier (but not easy) to get rid of, over time.
BTW, despite my comments re. the Bangkok middle-classes, I do know a lot of middle-management public sector employees (Ministries of Agriculture, Interior and Education, mainly) who are absolutely fed up with budget money disappearing. And the Office of Public Sector Development Commission seems pretty idealistic. Their charter (a Royal Proclamation) reads almost like an alternative constitution. Their basic task is to re-engineer the public sector, & turn it from an organisaation that told the people what to do into one that asks them how it can serve them.
a very good program right now (Sun Jul 12th, 9.30pm) on Thai PBS – about the REAL corruption BS side of the so called “self-sufficiency” so much pushed by Abhisit’s gov. (in response to TV add where Abhisit talks about self-sufficiency).
the brief outline of what is being shown in the program:
gov. gave to each village those machines for … drinking water – how the hell is that related to “self-sufficiency” ?! people are giving interviews on #Thai PBS about the so called “self-sufficiency”: “we are not buffaloes, we understand what’s going on !” BUT … when they are going to protest – they are being told that they’ll be sued over “offending governor” – what a BS ! HUGE corruption in #Thailand. under the name of “self-sufficiency” present gov. MAKES MONEY for themselves ! they say to villagers : “here is the machine for drinking water, it’s price is … B350K” – while REAL price is only B38K ! so, WHO is getting those money ? not even to mention that these machines are totally USELESS for some Isaan villagers. because they say: we don’t use this kind of machine, we have water in every house already. what we need – we’ve written in our request list. that is : buffaloes to plough the fields (because petrol is too costly to use tractors) and pigs to grow for meat… so, that’s what we need – NOT these water machines ! this is simply ridiculously unbelievable – how this gov. is BS-ing people ! yet this PROPAGANDA add is continues being played on many TV channels in #Thailand – with #Abhisit talking about “self-sufficiency”.
“Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Sinawatra is reportedly in Vanuatu today, seeking to meet leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji). In the last week, he has also been to Tonga and Fiji, where he is reported to have met with Fiji’s interim Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama.
Media reports quoting informed sources in Fiji say Thaksin is considering investing $300m in Fiji in return for protection from extradition. ”
Now it’s shaping up to be a 3-ring circus! Luksna Kornsilpa has distributed a Press Release & article, in which it appears that she is laying charges on absolutely EVERYBODY & his dog. Well, almost everybody & not THAT dog…yet.
It is also a sort of disordered CV-cum self-promotional doc. , containing stuff like,” Ms. Luksna Kornsilpa, 57 years of age; an analyst, management system auditor, industrial sector consultant and hazard analysis specialist having an engineering education with a solid management background shall file the charges against all conspirators identified herein and hereafter.
“Presently she is working on her doctoral research in visualization (forming correct and twisted perceptions, understandings and misunderstandings through graphical and textual information)
“Ms Luksna has researched, detected, analyzed and documented evidences of numerous acts of treason and treachery using sound academic principles.
“Extensive scrutiny of Ms Luksna’s meticulous reports clearly reveals and proves without a shadow of a doubt that there is an organized underground movement that aims to destabilize and overthrow Thailand’s Monarchical Democracy.”
Monarchical Democracy indeed. Well, I for one, will not be employing her as a translator. (I must say when I first read the release, I read that as ‘maniacal democracy’. )
Further evidence of her most interesting state of mind may be had from the fact that she very seriously asserts that expressions like
‘ “Brothel of Criminals” which when defined by judges equates to a “Den of Conspirators” ‘ are contained in Thailand’s criminal code. She designates FCCT a Brothel of Criminals.
Good point Ralph @ #25. In fact, I don’t think the idea of precedents applies at all in relation to LM ‘trials,’ because a lawyer who quoted from evidence & judgements in previous cases, even if there were transcripts & they were accessible, would be himself committing LM.
Re. Sidh #19 agreeing with JFQ, who used the expression ‘free for all’: a free-for-all does not imply freedom in the sense we are discussing it in this conversation; it implies disorder, lawlessness, irresponsible action, chaos even. Yes, Thailand has laws, but they are not adhered to, especially by those whose responsibility it is to enforce them – quite the opposite in fact. I don’t think I need to bore everyone by citing yet again recent cases in many areas of law where this is clearly & shockingly evident. Perhaps Sidh should have said, “I also agree with Jonfernquest – Thai society is too much of a free-for-all.” I would agree with that.
I must say that I find Sidh’s statement re. the LM abuse issue being ” a pet fetish of NM and, as you will notice, (getting) highly disproportional responses and feedbacks” rather baffling. LM abuse is symptomatic of the appalling lack of justice, consistency and fair-play in Thailand. It’s part of a whole unethical social system. The amount of space given to it shows just how concerned NM participants are about this whole system. If you think it’s a waste of space, why do you add your lengthy and confused arguments to it? And BTW, let me reiterate, it’s not “the LM law,” it’s the abuse of that law which most discussion is about.
I don’t know what’s wrong with such fees. In the public management literature, this is generally called “user fees,” that is, people who want a service must pay for its delivery.
This is purely observation, no commentary. Yesterday, Friday, July 10, HRH was found inaugurating a new building in Thammasat Rangsit. The entourage that passed consisted of the following:
1 Royal Benz – light cream golden? color for HRH and princess
1 Royal Benz – (probably) backup, less fancy as the first, but big.
2 identical gleaming ketchup (or blood) red Mercedes Benz – couldnt tell the series but with a cluster of radio antennas at the back
11 identical gleaming ketchup (or blood) red BMWs – couldn’t tell the series, but they look big, long and squat, also with a cluster of radio antennas at the back
9 identical silver and white (on side doors) BMWs (similar models to the red BMWs, I think) with police style roof mounted lightbar (I can’t read Thai, but I guess it these are probably some kind of royal police escort vehicles).
Total royal cars: 24 (I will not tell you the sequence of vehicles, for security reasons)
I don’t know about you, I was pretty overwhelmed (& intimidated) by the extraordinary display of power and wealth. I’ve seen images of the entourage of Berlusconi (not that they’re on the same league) in Youtube, but it has never come to a level as fabulous as this.
To the learned men/women of New Mandala, is there anything auspicious or significant about the number 24?
Given that Thaksin’s enemies have long and loudly proclaimed the King as their leader, and that Thaksin’s electoral support appears to remain solid, what does that say about the real popularity of the King? It is absolutely normal for people to say one thing to stay out of prison, and in their hearts believe another. The lèse majesté laws and associated repressive political baggage have the potential to stoke the fire and keep it hidden till the monarchy disappears in a final deflagration. If you want to stay out of prison, you would, of course, deny this possibility.
By the way, is it true, as I have been told by two sources recently, that each student who graduates from university all over the country is required to make a 600 baht “donation” to the university for presentation to the royal personage who hands out their degree certificate? Or is this another rumour?
Well, yes, it’s true, although it’s not called, nor officially regarded as ‘donation’ (bo-ri-jak), but has some official name, something along the line of “graduation fee”. The amount also slightly varies depending on universities (I understand that my uni, Thammasat, is currently about 550 or 600. Of this amount the uni actually keeps for itself 50 Baht).
Another thing, it’s not offically – not normally or publicly – revealed to the students who pay the ‘fee’ that the money will be ‘toon-klaw-tha-wai’ (i.e. give to) member of the royal family who hands them the degree certificate. Hence the rumor-like situation about the money. Suppose a uni like Thammasat has 5000 graduates each year, the total amount of this ‘fee’ to be ‘thoon-klao-tha-wai’ would be around 1.5 million baht. But the really big one is the Ratchapat Universities which hold all-campuses graduation ceremony lasting about a week (you do the mathe).
In case of the Crown Prince who, since his other daughter (the one with law degree) graduated, became the regular giver of the graduation certificate at my university (this is a story in itself which I won’t tell here), there’s something quite, shall I say, ‘peculiar’ about this ‘graduation fee’ and certain aspect of the ceremony (I’m talking only about the case of Thammasat). I won’t risk giving you details here either.
Just a quick comment without having read the article, but I think one has to factor in the pro-military regime militias in the Shan and Kachin State into the equation. Based on my experience, and as the monopgraph Stephen cites mentions, they are widespread in the Shan State. The one that I am most familiar with in the Lashio area had a purported strength of 1.000 men, but that may be an exceptionally large force. Anyway, adding them in to the Burmese army figures would give a very large force.
On the question of tatmadaw strength, I was looking for the best number based on my current understanding of recruiting and retention. I have seen estimates, over the years, that range across your spectrum. My sense is that since some of Selth’s careful analysis of the numbers they have increased somewhat. Perhaps not to the level suggested by Maung Aung Myoe, but perhaps not far from it. “Almost 500,000” is my best estimate right now but I am very happy to be corrected by readers with better information. I also sense that there are seasonal and regional variations that matter, and, of course, issues of precisely who gets counted. It strikes me that this merits more thorough (on-going) research.
The KIA’s resistance to the Border Guard Force proposal is based on the very limited armed strength they would be able to retain. Thus we have this recent talk about trying to negotiate for a “State Force” of some sort that keeps the “KIA” numbers high. The DKBA is, as far as I understand it, being given special dispensation and is even heavily recruiting to fill all of those extra battalions. As far as I know, the KIA (and everyone else…UWSA, NDA-K, etc) is in a very different position.
As for the loyalty among the tatmadaw lower ranks I appreciate that KHRG has done tremendous work interviewing deserters. But my sense is that command solidarity is much stronger than it appears at the border. I don’t have any evidence that indicates otherwise. When was the last large-scale mutiny? Every army has internal problems — it is a question, as I see it, of how such potential strife is managed. The SPDC brass, and even the more junior officers, appear to have managed to stop the sort of fragmentation that one would expect. Loyalty and solidarity are, somehow, retained. Is there evidence to the contrary?
Of course, on these, and other, points I am very happy to learn more. Thanks, Stephen, for your very insightful comments.
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Problems in Australia’s overseas student program
Thanks for the important and timely piece Richard. Here’s an excellent, complementary article by Kate Shaw from The Age newspaper discussing spatial and policy issues:
“Cultural change impossible if cultures are divided”
in
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/cultural-change-impossible-if-cultures-are-divided-20090708-ddcv.html
Where’s Vajiralongkorn?
My earlier comment here didn’t make it. I didn’t think this was really hilarious enough to be worth Andrew taking the risk of getting banged up for lese majeste. This would be a pretty clear cut case of poking fun at the CP and it would hard for Andrew to elicit international sympathy with either the Nicolaides defence that he was too dim to understand the Thai law or the Ajarn Giles defence that he was expressing a serious academic opinion based on rigorous research.
“An attack on the rights of journalists”
Michael #29 “… implies disorder, lawlessness, irresponsible action, chaos even” – not exactly the characteristic of a society with a high level of suppression of freedom of expression and action!!! Arguably the extreme opposite in fact – which is my point exactly (and, don’t get, me wrong, I am not proud of it – it’s just the way it is). Nothing “confused” about my arguments on LM here. If most Thais, or a large enough critical mass, are very unhappy with LM laws, it will be abolished. The politicians are the best litmus test here (for they also have the power to change the laws) – if it is a popular, vote-getter, we will see the end of LM laws – this I am certain. In the current context, it is pure political suicide and don’t expect Thai politicians of any color to go for it.
To help you understand my point of view in greater clarity – go to the streets of Bangkok or rural villages in the provinces and ask respondents to list what they would want their politicians, governments to do most for them/the country. I wonder where ‘reform/abolish’ LM laws would be? PMThaksin seem to have the pulse of many Thai voters (whether instinctively or through sophisticated demographic studies) – if he hasn’t promised LM law change in any of his phone-ins, it probably does not register much at all…
Of course, it is a different matter if you are a foreigner who would like to say anything you want anywhere and at anytime. Nothing “confused” in my arguments here as well – in fact, it is very practical. Simply respect the law of the country you are in and it does not have to be Thailand.
kebenaran terkini menyangkut Permainan Bandarq
Michael#7, another interesting ABAC poll results for you:
“р╣Ар╕нр╣Бр╕Ър╕Др╣Вр╕Юр╕ер╕Хр╕Бр╣Гр╕Ир╕Др╕Щр╕нр╕╡р╕кр╕▓р╕Щ 60%р╣Ар╕лр╣Зр╕Щр╕Фр╣Йр╕зр╕вр╕нр╕ар╕▒р╕вр╣Вр╕Чр╕йр╕Щр╕▒р╕Бр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╕Чр╕╕р╕Ир╕гр╕┤р╕Х-р╣Гр╕Хр╣Йр╕Др╣Йр╕▓р╕Щр╕лр╕▒р╕зр╕Кр╕Щр╕Эр╕▓р╕гр╣Йр╕нр╕вр╕ер╕░80 р╕Др╕Щр╕Бр╕гр╕╕р╕Зр╕кр╕╣р╕кр╕╡” (Title: “ABAC Poll surprise: 60% of Isan agree with pardoning corrupt politicians – Southerners strongly against by 80% Bangkokians even” – my translation, please feel free to check for accuracy)
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?newsid=1247389016&grpid=05&catid=01
It does complicate the picture of Thai’s (as measured by polls) perception/tolerance of corruption. If we go by the title, respondents may be thinking of PMThaksin’s particular case. However the findings in the body of the article also points to another interesting pattern, the higher educated the respondents are, the lower their agreement with pardoning corrupt politicians.
To your comments “…Thaksin was quoted as stating that he was going to bring public sector corruption down to an ‘acceptable level,’ 20 – 25% of budget. Imagine what it must have actually been!”
Whatever the exact percentages, urban-based middle-classes seem to have perceived that either PMThaksin bought corruption up to and/or monopolize it to unacceptable levels.
“… I don’t believe the Central Thais will be the salvation of the nation. ” I hypothesize that this is a common belief for foreigners in NM (do correct me if I am wrong) – for me, a conflict among global middle-classes with very similar aspirations, opportunities and lifestyles. Interestingly we (Western and Thai middle-classes) often barrack for the underdog – in this case the Thai poor over the Thai middle class and above.
Otherwise I actually do agree with that statement as I believe the Thai middleclasses and/or Central Thais have done their bit for the broader distribution of political power. I will argue that AjarnPridi and FMPibul are early representatives of the new social group desire for political change with 1973, 1976, 1992, 2006 continuing in that tradition. I see the Reds Riot of 2008 continuing in a tradition begun by the middleclasses by the rural and urban poor in the negotiation for political change in the public spaces of Bangkok. My hunch is that if they can come up with an alternative that is not associated with PMThaksin, the urban-based middleclasses might just go along with it – until the next corruption scandal that is.
On corruption, Bangkok Post’s Voranai Vanijaka wrote an interesting commentary:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/20092/corruption-is-but-a-cultural-norm
Consistent with what the article implies, for me, corruption IS Thai Democracy’s major Achilles Heel – recent ABAC polls have only reinforced and confirmed this for me.
Problems in Australia’s overseas student program
I think this is an excellent contribution, specially the last half. The prime motive of the institutions that sell education to overseas students, and the associated government economic policy is the bottom line of a ledger. They pay lip service to the principles of education while ripping off the students.
The other side of the coin is also an economic one. Most of the students go through the motions of education, but their real motive is economic migration– to ultimately get permanent residency and employment in Australia, where the pay and conditions are better than at home. It is unjust to blame individuals for striving to better their lot in life, but fair to say that governments in the thrall of economics, and institutions run by accountants, have lost sight of the traditions of education. Let the money-making take its rightful place in an all-embracing, people-serving world culture, but not at the head of it.
Problems in Australia’s overseas student program
Just recalled the time around 1996 when I first visited AU as an oversea student in Queenland state. The city of Brisbane was peaceful and nice.
At that time, Paulin Hunson started her politic campaign on discrimination, which caused a problem to asian people there! Some of Asian students walking around the city of Brisbane and got shout badly from some local people. Some got throwing egg (yes, that happened to me & my friend). But most stories we witnessed were only shouting and minor, but no insulting.
It’s sad to heard that the matter got worse when the time pass by…
kebenaran terkini menyangkut Permainan Bandarq
An ABAC Poll of 1,228 household respondents in 17 provinces across the country at the end of June found that 84.5% of them accept corruption as a normal practice in business and 51.2 percent of them admit they don’t mind if a government is corrupt so long as it manages to bring about prosperity to the country and to improve the livelihood of the people.
Of the respondents, 31.6 percent of them were in the farming sector, 27 of them entrepreneurs, 15.2 percent of them employees and 11.5 percent government officials. Of these, 75 of them had under-graduate level of education.
The poll does not state that Isan has a greater tolerance of corruption than “their urban-based countrymen.” (Sidh #3)
While I cannot argue with your view that the selling of daughters (& I would add sons) is ‘dark,’ I know that practices like these are not limited to Isan, they’re much wider spread. (I include the coercion of young family members to enter the sex trade here & in other countries, in the notion of ‘selling.’) And yes, it is the most despicable aspect of corruption in Thailand. But I think that if we focus on that, we are in danger of missing the point that corruption is widely considered to be O.K. The middle-classes accept it, just as the poor rural people do, although the middle classes are much less likely to push their kids into brothels.
At some stage during his premiership Thaksin was quoted as stating that he was going to bring public sector corruption down to an ‘acceptable level,’ 20 – 25% of budget. Imagine what it must have actually been!
Billions of baht that could be going into improved medical services, education, agriculture, public sector salaries. Sad, eh?
I like Ralph’s comment @ #4. There’s a measure of hope in it. I don’t believe the Central Thais will be the salvation of the nation.
The rural people may be ‘uneducated,’ but I see signs that there are better thinkers among them than the ‘go to shopping’ middle classes in Bangkok. They’re pragmatists, and they are starting to see that they can have power, based on numbers, and they know who in their local communities has kept them under the thumb. If they continue as they have been doing, they’ll have the power before long to give themselves the education they have been denied & start looking after themselves in other ways. I hope that Thaksin will not be a part of that. If he’s not, there will still be corruption problems, but they may be easier (but not easy) to get rid of, over time.
BTW, despite my comments re. the Bangkok middle-classes, I do know a lot of middle-management public sector employees (Ministries of Agriculture, Interior and Education, mainly) who are absolutely fed up with budget money disappearing. And the Office of Public Sector Development Commission seems pretty idealistic. Their charter (a Royal Proclamation) reads almost like an alternative constitution. Their basic task is to re-engineer the public sector, & turn it from an organisaation that told the people what to do into one that asks them how it can serve them.
Sufficiency brilliance
a very good program right now (Sun Jul 12th, 9.30pm) on Thai PBS – about the REAL corruption BS side of the so called “self-sufficiency” so much pushed by Abhisit’s gov. (in response to TV add where Abhisit talks about self-sufficiency).
the brief outline of what is being shown in the program:
gov. gave to each village those machines for … drinking water – how the hell is that related to “self-sufficiency” ?! people are giving interviews on #Thai PBS about the so called “self-sufficiency”: “we are not buffaloes, we understand what’s going on !” BUT … when they are going to protest – they are being told that they’ll be sued over “offending governor” – what a BS ! HUGE corruption in #Thailand. under the name of “self-sufficiency” present gov. MAKES MONEY for themselves ! they say to villagers : “here is the machine for drinking water, it’s price is … B350K” – while REAL price is only B38K ! so, WHO is getting those money ? not even to mention that these machines are totally USELESS for some Isaan villagers. because they say: we don’t use this kind of machine, we have water in every house already. what we need – we’ve written in our request list. that is : buffaloes to plough the fields (because petrol is too costly to use tractors) and pigs to grow for meat… so, that’s what we need – NOT these water machines ! this is simply ridiculously unbelievable – how this gov. is BS-ing people ! yet this PROPAGANDA add is continues being played on many TV channels in #Thailand – with #Abhisit talking about “self-sufficiency”.
kebenaran terkini menyangkut Permainan Bandarq
“Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Sinawatra is reportedly in Vanuatu today, seeking to meet leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji). In the last week, he has also been to Tonga and Fiji, where he is reported to have met with Fiji’s interim Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama.
Media reports quoting informed sources in Fiji say Thaksin is considering investing $300m in Fiji in return for protection from extradition. ”
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2009/07/10/Has-Fiji-found-its-sugar-daddy.aspx
Burma’s general objectives
Neither War Nor Peace
The Future Of The Cease-Fire Agreements In Burma
Tom Kramer
July 2009
http://www.tni.org/detail_pub.phtml?&know_id=308
“An attack on the rights of journalists”
Now it’s shaping up to be a 3-ring circus! Luksna Kornsilpa has distributed a Press Release & article, in which it appears that she is laying charges on absolutely EVERYBODY & his dog. Well, almost everybody & not THAT dog…yet.
It is also a sort of disordered CV-cum self-promotional doc. , containing stuff like,” Ms. Luksna Kornsilpa, 57 years of age; an analyst, management system auditor, industrial sector consultant and hazard analysis specialist having an engineering education with a solid management background shall file the charges against all conspirators identified herein and hereafter.
“Presently she is working on her doctoral research in visualization (forming correct and twisted perceptions, understandings and misunderstandings through graphical and textual information)
“Ms Luksna has researched, detected, analyzed and documented evidences of numerous acts of treason and treachery using sound academic principles.
“Extensive scrutiny of Ms Luksna’s meticulous reports clearly reveals and proves without a shadow of a doubt that there is an organized underground movement that aims to destabilize and overthrow Thailand’s Monarchical Democracy.”
Monarchical Democracy indeed. Well, I for one, will not be employing her as a translator. (I must say when I first read the release, I read that as ‘maniacal democracy’. )
Further evidence of her most interesting state of mind may be had from the fact that she very seriously asserts that expressions like
‘ “Brothel of Criminals” which when defined by judges equates to a “Den of Conspirators” ‘ are contained in Thailand’s criminal code. She designates FCCT a Brothel of Criminals.
Read it@ http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/1296 A classic!
BTW, one of the comments is by a ‘Michael.’ It’s absolutely NOT ME!
Interesting that a Thai university is apparently accepting this stuff as doctoral research. I wonder which one? Curiouser & curiouser !
“An attack on the rights of journalists”
Good point Ralph @ #25. In fact, I don’t think the idea of precedents applies at all in relation to LM ‘trials,’ because a lawyer who quoted from evidence & judgements in previous cases, even if there were transcripts & they were accessible, would be himself committing LM.
Re. Sidh #19 agreeing with JFQ, who used the expression ‘free for all’: a free-for-all does not imply freedom in the sense we are discussing it in this conversation; it implies disorder, lawlessness, irresponsible action, chaos even. Yes, Thailand has laws, but they are not adhered to, especially by those whose responsibility it is to enforce them – quite the opposite in fact. I don’t think I need to bore everyone by citing yet again recent cases in many areas of law where this is clearly & shockingly evident. Perhaps Sidh should have said, “I also agree with Jonfernquest – Thai society is too much of a free-for-all.” I would agree with that.
I must say that I find Sidh’s statement re. the LM abuse issue being ” a pet fetish of NM and, as you will notice, (getting) highly disproportional responses and feedbacks” rather baffling. LM abuse is symptomatic of the appalling lack of justice, consistency and fair-play in Thailand. It’s part of a whole unethical social system. The amount of space given to it shows just how concerned NM participants are about this whole system. If you think it’s a waste of space, why do you add your lengthy and confused arguments to it? And BTW, let me reiterate, it’s not “the LM law,” it’s the abuse of that law which most discussion is about.
Where’s Vajiralongkorn?
I don’t know what’s wrong with such fees. In the public management literature, this is generally called “user fees,” that is, people who want a service must pay for its delivery.
Where’s Vajiralongkorn?
This is purely observation, no commentary. Yesterday, Friday, July 10, HRH was found inaugurating a new building in Thammasat Rangsit. The entourage that passed consisted of the following:
1 Royal Benz – light cream golden? color for HRH and princess
1 Royal Benz – (probably) backup, less fancy as the first, but big.
2 identical gleaming ketchup (or blood) red Mercedes Benz – couldnt tell the series but with a cluster of radio antennas at the back
11 identical gleaming ketchup (or blood) red BMWs – couldn’t tell the series, but they look big, long and squat, also with a cluster of radio antennas at the back
9 identical silver and white (on side doors) BMWs (similar models to the red BMWs, I think) with police style roof mounted lightbar (I can’t read Thai, but I guess it these are probably some kind of royal police escort vehicles).
Total royal cars: 24 (I will not tell you the sequence of vehicles, for security reasons)
I don’t know about you, I was pretty overwhelmed (& intimidated) by the extraordinary display of power and wealth. I’ve seen images of the entourage of Berlusconi (not that they’re on the same league) in Youtube, but it has never come to a level as fabulous as this.
To the learned men/women of New Mandala, is there anything auspicious or significant about the number 24?
“An attack on the rights of journalists”
Given that Thaksin’s enemies have long and loudly proclaimed the King as their leader, and that Thaksin’s electoral support appears to remain solid, what does that say about the real popularity of the King? It is absolutely normal for people to say one thing to stay out of prison, and in their hearts believe another. The lèse majesté laws and associated repressive political baggage have the potential to stoke the fire and keep it hidden till the monarchy disappears in a final deflagration. If you want to stay out of prison, you would, of course, deny this possibility.
Thaksin and the Brahmins
Phr Rahu (р╕Юр╕┤р╕Шр╕╡р╕Ър╕╣р╕Кр╕▓р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕гр╕▓р╕лр╕╣).
Phr Rahu temple is in Thirunakeswaram about 5 km from Kumbakonam.
This is a town in “Tamilnadu” State of India.
One have to fly to “Chennai” airport and then by Train or Bus or Car can reach Kumbakonam which is 375 Kms from Chennai.
Bangkok is connected with Chennai thru lot of flights.
Another way is to fly to “Thirchy” using AIRASIA from Kualalumpur.
Tirchy city is just 60kms from Kumbakonam town.
http://www.kumbakonam.com/howtogetthere/road.htm
Thanks
Phr Rahu (р╕Юр╕┤р╕Шр╕╡р╕Ър╕╣р╕Кр╕▓р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╕гр╕▓р╕лр╕╣).
Phr Rahu р╕зр╕▒р╕Фр╕Чр╕╡р╣Ир╕нр╕вр╕╣р╣Ир╣Гр╕Щ Thirunakeswaram р╕Ыр╕гр╕░р╕бр╕▓р╕У 5 р╕Бр╕┤р╣Вр╕ер╣Ар╕бр╕Хр╕гр╕Ир╕▓р╕Бр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕З Kumbakonam.
р╕Щр╕╡р╣Ир╕Др╕╖р╕нр╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╣Гр╕Щ “Tamilnadu” р╕гр╕▒р╕Рр╕Вр╕нр╕Зр╕нр╕┤р╕Щр╣Ар╕Фр╕╡р╕в.
р╕лр╕Щр╕╢р╣Ир╕Зр╕Хр╣Йр╕нр╕Зр╕Ър╕┤р╕Щр╣Др╕Ыр╕Чр╕╡р╣И “р╣Ар╕Ир╕Щр╣Др╕Щ” р╕кр╕Щр╕▓р╕бр╕Ър╕┤р╕Щр╣Бр╕ер╣Йр╕зр╣Вр╕Фр╕вр╕гр╕Цр╣Др╕Яр╕лр╕гр╕╖р╕нр╕гр╕Цр╕Ър╕▒р╕кр╕гр╕Цр╕лр╕гр╕╖р╕нр╕кр╕▓р╕бр╕▓р╕гр╕Цр╣Ар╕Вр╣Йр╕▓р╕Цр╕╢р╕З Kumbakonam р╕Чр╕╡р╣И 375 р╕Бр╕┤р╣Вр╕ер╣Ар╕бр╕Хр╕гр╕Ир╕▓р╕Бр╣Ар╕Ир╕Щр╣Др╕Щ.
р╕Бр╕гр╕╕р╕Зр╣Ар╕Чр╕Юр╕пр╕Бр╕▒р╕Ър╣Ар╕Ир╕Щр╣Др╕Щр╕Ьр╣Ир╕▓р╕Щр╕Ир╕│р╕Щр╕зр╕Щр╕бр╕▓р╕Бр╣Ар╕Чр╕╡р╣Ир╕вр╕зр╕Ър╕┤р╕Щ.
р╕нр╕╡р╕Бр╕зр╕┤р╕Шр╕╡р╕лр╕Щр╕╢р╣Ир╕Зр╕Др╕╖р╕нр╕Бр╕▓р╕гр╕Ър╕┤р╕Щр╣Др╕Ыр╕Чр╕╡р╣И “Thirchy” р╣Гр╕Кр╣Й AIRASIA р╕Ир╕▓р╕Б Kualalumpur.
Tirchy р╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕Зр╣Ар╕Юр╕╡р╕вр╕З 60kms р╕Ир╕▓р╕Б Kumbakonam р╣Ар╕бр╕╖р╕нр╕З.
http://www.kumbakonam.com/howtogetthere/road.htm
р╕Вр╕нр╕Ър╕Др╕╕р╕У
р╕Щр╕нр╕Бр╕Ир╕▓р╕Бр╕Щр╕╡р╣Йр╕вр╕▒р╕Зр╕бр╕╡р╕зр╕▒р╕Фр╕кр╕│р╕лр╕гр╕▒р╕Ър╕нр╕▓р╕Чр╕┤р╕Хр╕вр╣Мр╕Фр╕зр╕Зр╕Ир╕▒р╕Щр╕Чр╕гр╣М, р╣Ар╕бр╕нр╕гр╣Мр╕Др╕┤р╕зр╕гр╕╡, р╕ир╕╕р╕Бр╕гр╣М, Jupitor р╕Юр╕гр╕░р╣Ар╕Ир╣Йр╕▓
“An attack on the rights of journalists”
Can we assume the silence on this LM circus from the institution means they are happy with it?
If the answer is YES, then IMO that says a lot about the institution.
If the answer is NO, then IMO that says a lot about the institution.
Where’s Vajiralongkorn?
By the way, is it true, as I have been told by two sources recently, that each student who graduates from university all over the country is required to make a 600 baht “donation” to the university for presentation to the royal personage who hands out their degree certificate? Or is this another rumour?
Well, yes, it’s true, although it’s not called, nor officially regarded as ‘donation’ (bo-ri-jak), but has some official name, something along the line of “graduation fee”. The amount also slightly varies depending on universities (I understand that my uni, Thammasat, is currently about 550 or 600. Of this amount the uni actually keeps for itself 50 Baht).
Another thing, it’s not offically – not normally or publicly – revealed to the students who pay the ‘fee’ that the money will be ‘toon-klaw-tha-wai’ (i.e. give to) member of the royal family who hands them the degree certificate. Hence the rumor-like situation about the money. Suppose a uni like Thammasat has 5000 graduates each year, the total amount of this ‘fee’ to be ‘thoon-klao-tha-wai’ would be around 1.5 million baht. But the really big one is the Ratchapat Universities which hold all-campuses graduation ceremony lasting about a week (you do the mathe).
In case of the Crown Prince who, since his other daughter (the one with law degree) graduated, became the regular giver of the graduation certificate at my university (this is a story in itself which I won’t tell here), there’s something quite, shall I say, ‘peculiar’ about this ‘graduation fee’ and certain aspect of the ceremony (I’m talking only about the case of Thammasat). I won’t risk giving you details here either.
Burma’s general objectives
Just a quick comment without having read the article, but I think one has to factor in the pro-military regime militias in the Shan and Kachin State into the equation. Based on my experience, and as the monopgraph Stephen cites mentions, they are widespread in the Shan State. The one that I am most familiar with in the Lashio area had a purported strength of 1.000 men, but that may be an exceptionally large force. Anyway, adding them in to the Burmese army figures would give a very large force.
Burma’s general objectives
Thanks Stephen,
I appreciate your well-made points.
On the question of tatmadaw strength, I was looking for the best number based on my current understanding of recruiting and retention. I have seen estimates, over the years, that range across your spectrum. My sense is that since some of Selth’s careful analysis of the numbers they have increased somewhat. Perhaps not to the level suggested by Maung Aung Myoe, but perhaps not far from it. “Almost 500,000” is my best estimate right now but I am very happy to be corrected by readers with better information. I also sense that there are seasonal and regional variations that matter, and, of course, issues of precisely who gets counted. It strikes me that this merits more thorough (on-going) research.
The KIA’s resistance to the Border Guard Force proposal is based on the very limited armed strength they would be able to retain. Thus we have this recent talk about trying to negotiate for a “State Force” of some sort that keeps the “KIA” numbers high. The DKBA is, as far as I understand it, being given special dispensation and is even heavily recruiting to fill all of those extra battalions. As far as I know, the KIA (and everyone else…UWSA, NDA-K, etc) is in a very different position.
As for the loyalty among the tatmadaw lower ranks I appreciate that KHRG has done tremendous work interviewing deserters. But my sense is that command solidarity is much stronger than it appears at the border. I don’t have any evidence that indicates otherwise. When was the last large-scale mutiny? Every army has internal problems — it is a question, as I see it, of how such potential strife is managed. The SPDC brass, and even the more junior officers, appear to have managed to stop the sort of fragmentation that one would expect. Loyalty and solidarity are, somehow, retained. Is there evidence to the contrary?
Of course, on these, and other, points I am very happy to learn more. Thanks, Stephen, for your very insightful comments.
Best wishes to all,
Nich