Sorry Nicholas but I was under the impression that 100s of 1000s of Thais were calling for elections? And that the first calls for elections came from Thais themselves?
> Abhisit is not capable of defeating the entrenched forces
He could, but he’d have to do something extreme: decide that he’s a democrat rather than a traditionalist. He might start by sincerely apologizing for his association with PAD, the coup, etc. He might tread the lese majeste line and develop some populist credentials by, politely, having some tough words for the Privy Council and their role in the coup. Then he might put together an understanding between the less rabidly royalist/militarist of the Democrats and the less rabidly Thaksinite factions of Phuea Thai, introduce legislation to roll back at least the extremes of the new constitution, co-opt popular TRT policy, etc.
Basically, he could semi-defect to the redshirts. Using the energy and crisis generated by the UDD, he’d have leverage to take on the military and the palace bureaucracy while pushing democratic, press-freedom, and transparency reforms through the government (assuming that enough of the reds be amenable to undermining the traditional political power structures in this way rather than by merely creating opaque, authoritarian institutions of their own). Simultaneously he’d be displacing and marginalizing Thaksin.
Of course, he isn’t going to do anything of the sort. Yet still, some such creative and radical thinking on his part might go a long way toward not only preserving his sickly-looking career but also and more importantly toward stabilizing the government and depolarizing the electorate. Or his defection might merely provoke another coup. What the hell do I know.
“Third, Thai military forces made no meaningful effort to defend the Pattaya venue of the Asean summit. Did the army’s chain of command fail on Saturday? Was the Thai military too divided to act? Was its leadership willing cynically to incur the national humiliation of a disrupted summit in order to have a pretext to move violently against the red shirts?”
What a stupid question.
A meaningful defense means drawing first blood, like in the Rambo film.
If someone is trying to get you to throw the first punch, do you throw it? Particularly now when the watchword is “non-violence.”
You don’t need a PhD to understand this. In fact, a PhD seems to a dysfunctional disconnect with reality recently. Thai Studies wanting to construct some dysfuncitonal Marxist version of reality rather than study it, once again.
Chris re: “I will not tell Thais how to solve the problems” – I think you will find that several hundred thousand Thais up and down the country are out on the streets demanding an election.
And – you either believe in democracy or you don’t. Can’t have it both ways I’m afraid.
I don’t think there ever was a sharp distinction in strategy used by the reds and yellows. Neither movement was inspired by Gandhi, and it was clear both would resort to violence if expedient.
Update number …
Still no Dtv
Govt announcement on free to air TV: The govt wishes to assure all people (local and tourists) that a peaceful solution is being sought. In the same breath, he announced that the military would move immediately to secure the port, airports and other establishments in the city.
A friend has said that he had just seen two bus loads of ‘red shirts’ arrive from Kon Kaen and another from further north in Isaan, so no real sign of this winding up soon as far as people are concerned.
Thaipbs showed images of soldiers on the fly-over (viaduct) leading to Vic. Monument. There was a stand-off developing with local protesters; pleas and shouting, but no violence apart from a couple of motorcycle taxi drives throwing small objects that were landing out of harm’s way.
I want to empahsise that the soldiers were being blocked access TO Vic. Monument. So far, the red shirts have appeared to have centered on Victory Monument, and my question is why?
From my limited knowledge, every other (unsuccessful) protest movement has been centered on Democracy Monument. Is it as simple as creating traffic chaos or is there a deeper significance?
The Red Movement brings progress to Thailand. I hope the UN, the ASEAN+3+6 leaders, and the democratic faction in the Thai Police and Military leaders recognize that Thailand needs change.
The existing bureaucratic State with feudal social structure have been hindering the country’s potential toward economic growth, social progress, and political development for a long time. In stead of opting for reform, the establishment has been using the method of masterminding in order to bring Abhisit to power. This has worsen the situation. First, the lack of consent from the governed has caused the issue of legitimacy. Second, without the mandate from the people, the current government thus applies oppressive measures, such as lese majeste chages. As a result, capable and patriotic Thai were either chased out of the country or being put in jail on lese majeste charges.
The emergence of market economy requires democratic civil society with the consent of the governed. Political reform, and new election are a fair and realistic option toward desirable stability.
Totally agree with Andrew Spooner in calling for election. Ahbisit may or may not lose, it is not a “given”
The situation in Thailand is complex with too many vested interest factions willing to have a go at it. One could easily see that in the commentary here in NM. To resolve this, Ahbisit has to do the right thing and be a statesman for Thailand –
1. Declare an election to be held – with time table
2. Do a public proclaimation to get all parties to a general meeting, including the military. (no use pretending that they are not political)
3. have the proceedings televised live
4. Get the agreement from everyone to respect the results of the new election and any complaints be kept in writing and used for “election campaigning” at the end of the elected govt rule
5. Fire the current EC and have a new one formed composing of representative of a few major parties.
6. Remove all “bans” imposed by the military organised junta / courts / EC to get a fair election
7. have independent observers from the UN or wherever for the month or two that is allowed for campaigning.
8. Limit all campaigning statements to self glorification and policies and no “personal” attacks or accusations – no end to lies and non verifiable nonsense from all sides if this allowed
Go have that election, then we can all go back to holidaying and golfing in Thailand without worrying about airport closures, road closures, ping pong bombs etc
@ Chris – well if the elites had allowed the election results to stand and the opposition to Thaksin had built a party worth voting for then Thailand would’ve progressed.
But they couldn’t stand all the swarthy chaps from Isaan getting all uppity and not knowing their place anymore.
So they got rid of two popularly elected governments.
One by an illegal military coup.
The second following a very dodgy constitution being put in place, violence and agitation by the almost-fascist PAD mob and all finished off with a clearly prejudiced court decision.
And lets get the PPP’s electoral corruption in perspective – one guy, far removed from any of the cabinet, none of whom were found guilty of anything, was found guilty. In the USA the equivalent would’ve been Obama being banned and the US Democrats dissolved for Blagojevich’s actions.
If this was London, NYC or Paris (particularly Paris) people would be on the streets too.
So, the solution is simple. Have a vote, stick to the results.
Will that happen? With some of the meddlers out of the way maybe it will.
And, by the way, Amnesty International are calling on the international community to press Abhisit to hold elections.
Sidh S still promoting a reactionary position! Dont rely on those sources in his mailing because they skew facts. For accurate events best to see: http://thaienews.blogspot.com/- while mainly a Thai site they have English language materials too. Then readers can make up their own minds.
thanks for echoing my question… can you help us by suggesting someone you think can lead Thailand to peace and properity? (Prem? Suthep? Anupong? someone??)
and of course all(?) of us agree that legal sanctions should be applied to all that break the law
have you noticed that the pursuit of free and fair justice is a specific objective of the reds?
please tell us if you think that the record of justice delays and manipulation by the Abhisit government and Prem is something that has been good for Thailand
apart from the original Thaksin case of failure to declare assets which I think you believe was manipulated by Thaksin and I believe was manipulated by Prem (perhaps just because he was bored and wanted to keep in practice… blowback… hahaha)
please discuss any manipulation of the courts by Thaksin during the term of his governments
This is my first time in being so confused at this writer’s postings. The Red Shirts started out being violent (Udorn), their hero Thaksin is very violent, and yet somehow when the Red Shirts really expose this side of their modus operandi, somehow the distinction between them and the Yellow Shirts becomes less clear?
I need to grab a drink on this because all along the Yellow Shirts have been non-violent and Red shirts violent. Incident for incident, supportable with facts, tells a clear story and not one that is becoming less clear.
It’s easy to now just call for an election and everyone will abide by the result and sit down. this is happy-clappy stuff. the divisions in the society are running deep now and plights such as the British Ambassador’s yesterday on BBC: “we hope that everyone is sitting down and talk this through” are just ridiculous. They didnt do it for a year now, why should they do it now?
I just came from Sanam Luang back to Ari. It is nearly impossible now. Rama VI around Phitsanulok is closed. I took the BTS from Ratchatewi. The gates are nearly closed, they seem to be ready to close the BTS at any time.
On the BTS past Victory Monument: about 300 soldiers running towards a few reds at Victory Monument. Burning tires at intersections e.g. at Victory Monument and Phaholyothin. A lot of the reds on bikes. No public buses running on Phaholyothin.
Generally hardly anyone is out at the moment – and the ones who are out are tourists. I really feel bad for what they have to endure here. They do not know Bangkok and probably have no idea where they can go or not…
In the meantime, just opposite the burning tires, kids playing songkran throwing water on taxis and motocys…surreal and sad.
newsid=1239595697&grpid=01&catid=01
The last times the Third Hand shot the M79, it was at the PAD at Government House and at Don Muang Airport. I doubt that they will take aim at the Reds crowd at Government House. I also hope that they won’t as, for me, the ‘Third Hand’ has no place in any future Thai Democracy – or any form of democracy for that matter.
For those unfamiliar with the dark side of Thai street culture, the ‘Third Hand’ are often thugs employed by capitalist mafia types to violently threaten and/or evict poor vendor, squatters. Their employment is worth a full journalistic and research investigations in their own right to see who has employed them against whom in this Reds Vs PAD street battles…
re: comment 42
On stage at the protest this morning, a message was read out claiming that Newin had recruited Cambodian mercenaries!!!!
Latest:
Dtv off air again
Thaitv broadcasting live footage from the ‘municipal apartments’ at Ding Daeng. Someone has commandeared a 12 wheeled gas trasport truck and parked it in the middle of the road. Plenty of military present, but no threatening action being taken.
Other stations are repeating the PM’s earlier address
Sorry Z i misread that i should have addressed it to Ben.
lèse majesté is indeed an example of the king being responsible for “the distress or harming of a single individual” throughout the entire duration of his reign? To think otherwise would be decetpive. He has the power to pardon or have the charges dropped.
I too don’t know if the Red Shirts ,are the answer but at least they are giving it a shot.
Protesters hurled molotov cocktails and stones after soldiers moved in to clear a key road junction in the capital which demonstrators calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had blocked overnight.
re: comment 36
We don’t. As observers, we take information, digest it, and make a judgement. At the red shirt rally, televised by Dtv, a man spoke of injured people, while holding a plastic bag of shell casings. He was followed by others, some sporting injuries, who said that they were at
Ding Daeng. Then a blood-stained plastic mat and detonated gas-grenades (the word irritant was clear to read) were displayed to the crowd.
All the comment, all the images, all the pleas to people are currently being ‘digested’ by the thousands at the rally and people that watch Dtv. Are these people going to suddenly stand up and walk home? Are they suddenly going to rise up and create confusion like last Thursday at Victory Monument?
At the moment, there is precious little information apart from an address by the PM. I cannot ascertain where the telecast was transmitted from, however, there was a mixture of dark blue-jacketed civilians and military men. He has asked, not called for, the protestors to disperse and return home. He also stated that some 40 members of the military have been injured and no protesters were killed.
A further announcement has been made; namely that some department stores and gold shops have been asked to close.
PERSONAL COMMENT:
For those that know Bangkok, if Central Lard Prao is closed, then that intersection will be clear for traffic coming from the north (Special Operations troops from Lopburi?)
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DFAT raises its Bangkok travel warning
Sorry Nicholas but I was under the impression that 100s of 1000s of Thais were calling for elections? And that the first calls for elections came from Thais themselves?
Maybe I’m wrong….
Crackdown on the reds?
> Abhisit is not capable of defeating the entrenched forces
He could, but he’d have to do something extreme: decide that he’s a democrat rather than a traditionalist. He might start by sincerely apologizing for his association with PAD, the coup, etc. He might tread the lese majeste line and develop some populist credentials by, politely, having some tough words for the Privy Council and their role in the coup. Then he might put together an understanding between the less rabidly royalist/militarist of the Democrats and the less rabidly Thaksinite factions of Phuea Thai, introduce legislation to roll back at least the extremes of the new constitution, co-opt popular TRT policy, etc.
Basically, he could semi-defect to the redshirts. Using the energy and crisis generated by the UDD, he’d have leverage to take on the military and the palace bureaucracy while pushing democratic, press-freedom, and transparency reforms through the government (assuming that enough of the reds be amenable to undermining the traditional political power structures in this way rather than by merely creating opaque, authoritarian institutions of their own). Simultaneously he’d be displacing and marginalizing Thaksin.
Of course, he isn’t going to do anything of the sort. Yet still, some such creative and radical thinking on his part might go a long way toward not only preserving his sickly-looking career but also and more importantly toward stabilizing the government and depolarizing the electorate. Or his defection might merely provoke another coup. What the hell do I know.
Montesano on Thailand’s crisis
“Third, Thai military forces made no meaningful effort to defend the Pattaya venue of the Asean summit. Did the army’s chain of command fail on Saturday? Was the Thai military too divided to act? Was its leadership willing cynically to incur the national humiliation of a disrupted summit in order to have a pretext to move violently against the red shirts?”
What a stupid question.
A meaningful defense means drawing first blood, like in the Rambo film.
If someone is trying to get you to throw the first punch, do you throw it? Particularly now when the watchword is “non-violence.”
You don’t need a PhD to understand this. In fact, a PhD seems to a dysfunctional disconnect with reality recently. Thai Studies wanting to construct some dysfuncitonal Marxist version of reality rather than study it, once again.
Crackdown on the reds?
Chris re: “I will not tell Thais how to solve the problems” – I think you will find that several hundred thousand Thais up and down the country are out on the streets demanding an election.
And – you either believe in democracy or you don’t. Can’t have it both ways I’m afraid.
The yellow lesson
I don’t think there ever was a sharp distinction in strategy used by the reds and yellows. Neither movement was inspired by Gandhi, and it was clear both would resort to violence if expedient.
The major, sharp difference is in goals.
Crackdown on the reds?
Update number …
Still no Dtv
Govt announcement on free to air TV: The govt wishes to assure all people (local and tourists) that a peaceful solution is being sought. In the same breath, he announced that the military would move immediately to secure the port, airports and other establishments in the city.
A friend has said that he had just seen two bus loads of ‘red shirts’ arrive from Kon Kaen and another from further north in Isaan, so no real sign of this winding up soon as far as people are concerned.
Thaipbs showed images of soldiers on the fly-over (viaduct) leading to Vic. Monument. There was a stand-off developing with local protesters; pleas and shouting, but no violence apart from a couple of motorcycle taxi drives throwing small objects that were landing out of harm’s way.
I want to empahsise that the soldiers were being blocked access TO Vic. Monument. So far, the red shirts have appeared to have centered on Victory Monument, and my question is why?
From my limited knowledge, every other (unsuccessful) protest movement has been centered on Democracy Monument. Is it as simple as creating traffic chaos or is there a deeper significance?
Crackdown on the reds?
I was not making an ideological point against elections as such. I will not tell Thais how to solve the problems.
I was making a practical point. Why would anyone accept a result now if they havent for the last years?
Montesano on Thailand’s crisis
The Red Movement brings progress to Thailand. I hope the UN, the ASEAN+3+6 leaders, and the democratic faction in the Thai Police and Military leaders recognize that Thailand needs change.
The existing bureaucratic State with feudal social structure have been hindering the country’s potential toward economic growth, social progress, and political development for a long time. In stead of opting for reform, the establishment has been using the method of masterminding in order to bring Abhisit to power. This has worsen the situation. First, the lack of consent from the governed has caused the issue of legitimacy. Second, without the mandate from the people, the current government thus applies oppressive measures, such as lese majeste chages. As a result, capable and patriotic Thai were either chased out of the country or being put in jail on lese majeste charges.
The emergence of market economy requires democratic civil society with the consent of the governed. Political reform, and new election are a fair and realistic option toward desirable stability.
Crackdown on the reds?
Totally agree with Andrew Spooner in calling for election. Ahbisit may or may not lose, it is not a “given”
The situation in Thailand is complex with too many vested interest factions willing to have a go at it. One could easily see that in the commentary here in NM. To resolve this, Ahbisit has to do the right thing and be a statesman for Thailand –
1. Declare an election to be held – with time table
2. Do a public proclaimation to get all parties to a general meeting, including the military. (no use pretending that they are not political)
3. have the proceedings televised live
4. Get the agreement from everyone to respect the results of the new election and any complaints be kept in writing and used for “election campaigning” at the end of the elected govt rule
5. Fire the current EC and have a new one formed composing of representative of a few major parties.
6. Remove all “bans” imposed by the military organised junta / courts / EC to get a fair election
7. have independent observers from the UN or wherever for the month or two that is allowed for campaigning.
8. Limit all campaigning statements to self glorification and policies and no “personal” attacks or accusations – no end to lies and non verifiable nonsense from all sides if this allowed
Go have that election, then we can all go back to holidaying and golfing in Thailand without worrying about airport closures, road closures, ping pong bombs etc
Crackdown on the reds?
@ Chris – well if the elites had allowed the election results to stand and the opposition to Thaksin had built a party worth voting for then Thailand would’ve progressed.
But they couldn’t stand all the swarthy chaps from Isaan getting all uppity and not knowing their place anymore.
So they got rid of two popularly elected governments.
One by an illegal military coup.
The second following a very dodgy constitution being put in place, violence and agitation by the almost-fascist PAD mob and all finished off with a clearly prejudiced court decision.
And lets get the PPP’s electoral corruption in perspective – one guy, far removed from any of the cabinet, none of whom were found guilty of anything, was found guilty. In the USA the equivalent would’ve been Obama being banned and the US Democrats dissolved for Blagojevich’s actions.
If this was London, NYC or Paris (particularly Paris) people would be on the streets too.
So, the solution is simple. Have a vote, stick to the results.
Will that happen? With some of the meddlers out of the way maybe it will.
And, by the way, Amnesty International are calling on the international community to press Abhisit to hold elections.
I’m in good company.
Battle at Dindaeng, Bangkok, 13 April 2009
Sidh S still promoting a reactionary position! Dont rely on those sources in his mailing because they skew facts. For accurate events best to see: http://thaienews.blogspot.com/- while mainly a Thai site they have English language materials too. Then readers can make up their own minds.
Crackdown on the reds?
Sidh S #42
thanks for echoing my question… can you help us by suggesting someone you think can lead Thailand to peace and properity? (Prem? Suthep? Anupong? someone??)
and of course all(?) of us agree that legal sanctions should be applied to all that break the law
have you noticed that the pursuit of free and fair justice is a specific objective of the reds?
please tell us if you think that the record of justice delays and manipulation by the Abhisit government and Prem is something that has been good for Thailand
apart from the original Thaksin case of failure to declare assets which I think you believe was manipulated by Thaksin and I believe was manipulated by Prem (perhaps just because he was bored and wanted to keep in practice… blowback… hahaha)
please discuss any manipulation of the courts by Thaksin during the term of his governments
its a pleasure trying to learn from you
The yellow lesson
This is my first time in being so confused at this writer’s postings. The Red Shirts started out being violent (Udorn), their hero Thaksin is very violent, and yet somehow when the Red Shirts really expose this side of their modus operandi, somehow the distinction between them and the Yellow Shirts becomes less clear?
I need to grab a drink on this because all along the Yellow Shirts have been non-violent and Red shirts violent. Incident for incident, supportable with facts, tells a clear story and not one that is becoming less clear.
Crackdown on the reds?
It’s easy to now just call for an election and everyone will abide by the result and sit down. this is happy-clappy stuff. the divisions in the society are running deep now and plights such as the British Ambassador’s yesterday on BBC: “we hope that everyone is sitting down and talk this through” are just ridiculous. They didnt do it for a year now, why should they do it now?
I just came from Sanam Luang back to Ari. It is nearly impossible now. Rama VI around Phitsanulok is closed. I took the BTS from Ratchatewi. The gates are nearly closed, they seem to be ready to close the BTS at any time.
On the BTS past Victory Monument: about 300 soldiers running towards a few reds at Victory Monument. Burning tires at intersections e.g. at Victory Monument and Phaholyothin. A lot of the reds on bikes. No public buses running on Phaholyothin.
Generally hardly anyone is out at the moment – and the ones who are out are tourists. I really feel bad for what they have to endure here. They do not know Bangkok and probably have no idea where they can go or not…
In the meantime, just opposite the burning tires, kids playing songkran throwing water on taxis and motocys…surreal and sad.
Crackdown on the reds?
What needs to happen is simple – call an election, with international monitors, and everyone abides by result, rich and poor alike.
It’s called democracy.
And if it took place tomorrow we all know PM Abhisit would be out of a job.
So, he has no mandate and has never had a popular mandate and should act like a statesman and resign.
Crackdown on the reds?
Ah, the infamous ‘Third Hand’ has aimed its weapon of choice the M79 at the Constutional Courts:
http://www.matichon.co.th/news_detail.php?
newsid=1239595697&grpid=01&catid=01
The last times the Third Hand shot the M79, it was at the PAD at Government House and at Don Muang Airport. I doubt that they will take aim at the Reds crowd at Government House. I also hope that they won’t as, for me, the ‘Third Hand’ has no place in any future Thai Democracy – or any form of democracy for that matter.
For those unfamiliar with the dark side of Thai street culture, the ‘Third Hand’ are often thugs employed by capitalist mafia types to violently threaten and/or evict poor vendor, squatters. Their employment is worth a full journalistic and research investigations in their own right to see who has employed them against whom in this Reds Vs PAD street battles…
Crackdown on the reds?
re: comment 42
On stage at the protest this morning, a message was read out claiming that Newin had recruited Cambodian mercenaries!!!!
Latest:
Dtv off air again
Thaitv broadcasting live footage from the ‘municipal apartments’ at Ding Daeng. Someone has commandeared a 12 wheeled gas trasport truck and parked it in the middle of the road. Plenty of military present, but no threatening action being taken.
Other stations are repeating the PM’s earlier address
Crackdown on the reds?
Thank you Sidh S, common sense at last!
On lèse majesté
Sorry Z i misread that i should have addressed it to Ben.
lèse majesté is indeed an example of the king being responsible for “the distress or harming of a single individual” throughout the entire duration of his reign? To think otherwise would be decetpive. He has the power to pardon or have the charges dropped.
I too don’t know if the Red Shirts ,are the answer but at least they are giving it a shot.
from an Australian news site :
UPDATE 12.37pm: THAI troops have used tear gas to disperse anti-government protesters in Bangkok, injuring 68.
Protesters hurled molotov cocktails and stones after soldiers moved in to clear a key road junction in the capital which demonstrators calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had blocked overnight.
Crackdown on the reds?
re: comment 36
We don’t. As observers, we take information, digest it, and make a judgement. At the red shirt rally, televised by Dtv, a man spoke of injured people, while holding a plastic bag of shell casings. He was followed by others, some sporting injuries, who said that they were at
Ding Daeng. Then a blood-stained plastic mat and detonated gas-grenades (the word irritant was clear to read) were displayed to the crowd.
All the comment, all the images, all the pleas to people are currently being ‘digested’ by the thousands at the rally and people that watch Dtv. Are these people going to suddenly stand up and walk home? Are they suddenly going to rise up and create confusion like last Thursday at Victory Monument?
At the moment, there is precious little information apart from an address by the PM. I cannot ascertain where the telecast was transmitted from, however, there was a mixture of dark blue-jacketed civilians and military men. He has asked, not called for, the protestors to disperse and return home. He also stated that some 40 members of the military have been injured and no protesters were killed.
A further announcement has been made; namely that some department stores and gold shops have been asked to close.
PERSONAL COMMENT:
For those that know Bangkok, if Central Lard Prao is closed, then that intersection will be clear for traffic coming from the north (Special Operations troops from Lopburi?)