wasn’t exactly a super insightful article. the resignation came because Thailand is no longer on the brink war with Cambodia, but is now rather on the brink of civil war.
does anyone know if anyone has tried to do the numbers on vote buying?
I wrote down some ideas on how to structure a reearch project:
Vote Buying
========
-check any pre-election polling
-seats in contention
-swinging voter identification
-party/politician competition
-how many votes could be bought (at 400B per vote?)?
-what was the winning margin in each electorate?
-estimate how many votes that would actually need to be bought on one side?
-what if both/multiple sides were buying votes, needing additional funding to achieve a given result?
-voter success in accepting money and not changing their actual vote (secret ballot)
-what evidence is there?
-what is the total amount of vote-buying that is proven?
-how much is not proven?
-are there plausible reasons why this money has not been traced?
-are there any conclusions that have been published by election observers about the Thai election practices?
-is there a conclusion, vote-buying is/is not a significant factor in Thai “free and fair” elections?
…….
very simplistically
a friend of mine suggested that perhaps 100M Baht could be spent
so, dividing by 400B per vote gives 250,000 votes max influenced
about 40M voters, margin 2M?
not enough money
so my conclusion is that its a beatup:
buying votes – I dont believe made a significant difference to the
election results (its the policies stupid…. through 4 democratic elections in a row!
compare this with the PAD offer
some corrupt rich people “nominating” the members of parliament for their own benefit?
I go for voting by all the Thai people every time instead of the corrupt few raping the country as usual
as someone said, the losers in elections always have ego issues, its a
measure of civilisation how they control it
Oh Ed, I thought you’d be more mature than this stillwaters do not always run deep. (^_^) I think that sentence falls under the “irrelevant” part of the paragraph of rules.
Sometimes I overestimate people on NM. I thought this was a place to voice ideas/opinions (with evidence) or to guide people to educational resources. Not a place to poke fun of usernames. After all, like in other public forums you have pretenders hiding behind false identities all the time. Even people who talk to themselves and support their own posts under another id. It happens and I’m sure we’ve met them!
Jim an example of the bullshit generated against Thaksin
bullshit Thaksin can’t seem to dispel with evidence.
It’s not just Thaksin—it’s also the DAMAPONG FAMILY which needs to be examined closely.
The courts were in his pocket, otherwise he would not be allowed to tour the world on a “vacation” from politics. Come on, we gave him a headstart and he still has his passport.
This thread was about the PAD strategy and attempts to understand it but it evolved into how Thaksin is a poor, poor victim in all of this and the fall back to the issue regarding PAD and the military. The thing is when it comes to political ideas, rarely anything is “new” under the sun. Some American parties try to emulate their predecessors and even borrow ideas from across party lines. If Ed is being sincere then PAD needs better ideas.
Ed there is little evidence of the mass vote-buying they claimed for the December election
Shouldn’t you all be cheering that Thaksin has turned into a political hydra. Thaksin will be with Thailand for a long time.
3) Thaksin is interfering in the judicial system http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Soc/soc.culture.cambodia/2008-06/msg00592.html
If he wasn’t such a stingy man and gave 5 million instead of 2—there would be no problem (^_^). It was such a petty little case compared to the matter forever swept under the rug google “Thaksin extrajudicial killings”. PAD should have nailed him on this count.
Funny how some democracy loving westerners overlook HUMAN RIGHTS.
In closing Ed a vested interest group of thugs who what to regain some vestige of the past when the military rule . You can say the same of Thaksin.
Thaksin has classmates and associates in the police and military–I’m more concerned with a pro-Thaksin coup against Samak. Thaksin’s thugs are well armed and have leaders who are proud to appear in the media such as : р╕Вр╕зр╕▒р╕Нр╕Кр╕▒р╕в р╣Др╕Юр╕гр╕Юр╕Щр╕▓ . Look him up….
Colum Graham says “experience of previous situations where the military has shown itself to be inextricably tied to the monarchy… as the monarchy is the state.”
this seems a bit mysterious to me…
as far as I know the King has never said what he thinks except in things related to sustainable development, water management, etc … never to my knowledge any statements on the elements of government or its relationship to society, except in very general terms… like do your job diligently and all will be well, etc
all sorts of people and institutions claim to be operating with or for the monarchy… eg. military governments routinely claim to be supporting the monarchy, as do the PAD, etc, etc
the monarchy, specifically the king, princess and to lesser extents other members, are revered by the ordinary Thai people and would be protected by all those people if they got the chance
I think the Bangkok elite, rich and influential figures, etc use the idea of the monarchy when it suits them for their own purposes
a side thought just strikes me… the once highly regarded saviour of students for democracy, Chamlong Srimuang, is now the military strategist for the PAD. He is associated (how?) with the non-mainstream Santi Asoke Buddhist sect and he has surrounded himself with monks form the sect at the PAD protest. The Santi Asoke followers are cooking vegetarian food for the protesters and presumably the monks are there to give an outlet for those Thais that wish to give to monks (offering food in the mornngs) and also as a bodyguard for Chamlong and the other leaders. they know that the police and military would never force themselves through a barrier of monks. If you look closely at footage you can see the monks, strange that the media (english) has not mentioned them….
so some Thais will even use Buddhism for their own ends……
Many commentators have said that PAD want violence to break out as it helps their cause, but they do not appear as ready to start it as the Red’s are.
Whilst the PAD are definitely not non-violent, it does sound like things can be controlled as long as the Red’s stay away.
Sorry to raise the question, but I wonder if you are being objective regarding the’ involvement’ of the PPP with the Red’s when you compare it to the Democrats with the PAD, because from a distance it does look to me that the involvent of certain elements of the PPP is more hands on than the Democrats.
btw, Do you honestly think the government has done all it could have to resolve the crisis (non violently)?
(or is that too political a question for a photo-journalist to answer?)
The relationship between the PAD and the Thai monarchy recalls the uneasy and temporary alliances between the fascists and the monarchies of Spain and Italy early last century. The monarchies lost out in both countries: to the general in Spain, and to the rabble-rouser in Italy. Spain survived for many years as a moribund, Burma-style dictatorship. Italy was devasted by the war brought on it by fascism. The European monarchies that survived or revived were the ones that ceded political power to democratically elected government.
“But, at least it was an offer of one way forward/out”.
If the reports are accurate regarding the proposed referendum question, then I’ve get serious doubts the PPP can solve anything!
(If that’s the best they can come up with, what hope is there?)
Mr Norton it is from now on, and my apologies for being so presumptuous.
Prove otherwise then! You won’t do it by mindlessly and slavishly following any of the major protagonists in this conflict. But that is precisely what is happening. A good solid slightly left-leaning party built from the roots up wouldn’t be a bad start. But it never works like that, does it? Indeed, most of the Octoberists have sold their souls to the Thaksin Devil for the sake of a comfortable retirement. And those people who do have some credibility left are treated like social pariahs.
Democrats are highly involved with yellows – PPP are highly involved with the reds. But don’t forget – Yellows were formed first – both before the coup, and again after the elections. The initiative is clearly carried by yellow.
And additionally – there is far more army involvement with yellows – in training of the Naclop Srivichai up to army officers having taken part in the fighting on the streets as well, on the side of the yellows.
Both sides use rented buses.
Payment for services is done on both sides, maybe more on the side of the reds. To what extend is very difficult to say. What i can say though, this is not such a simplistic issue, what i feel is more important is that regardless of payment – people taking part on both sides are convinced of their righteousness. From my personal talks feel that yellow is several steps more fanatic though, and far less open to any criticism, and far more hostile to contrarian views.
Nobody is “primed” with alcohol – most reds are from Isaarn and the North. In those villages alcohol is a culture. If you have ever spent some time in those villages then Lao Khao is drunk every day, is integral part of social life.
Many yellow fighters are high on Bai Kratom – police pulled in their attempt of clearing the streets of government house a huge sack of Bai Kratom, and displayed it to the media. And this definitely was not planted. The aggression level of yellow fighters is very high, a Nation TV reporter filmed me when i was threatened by a group of Naclop Srivichai for trying to take their photo, i don’t know though if the clip appeared at their website.
I have been aware of both sides being armed since the first Thammasat meeting of PAD after the elections. PAD brought wooden sticks, the UDD splinter groups rocks (at that time it was only a small group that protested, a not the majority of UDD – and i know for a fact that the main UDD leaders were not even aware of them at the time).
After the PAD used guns during the street fight, you can expect that if it comes to the next fight – there will be more firearms used by both sides. There are claims that UDD also used guns during the street fight and wounded one PAD fighter, yet all the gunshots i have heard during the fight came from the side the PAD held. Of course i can’t completely exclude these claims, i can only state what i have seen and heard.
Also afterwards, in the sois, the PAD has shot out of the dark Sois, while UDD has used slingshots. I have been uncomfortably close to that.
Right now there is a small window of opportunity as the reds have decided to retreat for a while. If there is no retreat from government house under whatever conditions by PAD very soon, and the Southern fighters go back where they came from – i expect that fighting will continue, and then it’s going to be ugly.
Don’t underestimate the seriousness of the situation.
I don’t agree with Dr Win Maung’s statement that massive 70% of Burmese sides with the generals so long as there is peace,stability and some degree of freedom and fairness to all ethnic groups including minorities.
Because there is no peace, no stability, no freedom, and no fairness to the minorities in our beloved Burma. Even the Burmese pride from extreme nationalism brought about by Ne Win’s coup earlier had already evaporated since the late seventies.
If there is such a group, they would mainly be the people who have economic advantages over the impoverished majority because of their close relationship with the ruling generals. Their percentage would be so low one can count with one’s fingers.
But, I do sympathize with Ma Theingi for her genuine opposition to the economic and trade sanctions against Burma. The sanctions not only hurt the ruling generals but it also hurt ordinary working Burmese. Maybe more to the people than the generals as the generals have money from the drug and gas sales, while people has no other alternatives to earn a living than work in the sanction-effected industries.
One particularly sad case against the sanctions is what happened to the textile industry after the sanctions. Many small and median sized cloth making shops employing hundreds of thousands of Burmese women and girls all over Rangoon are now long closed because of US and European sanctions.
Many of these decent working girls are now being forced into sex trade and many eventually end up in the neighboring countries’s sex industry. It is a real sad story repeatedly playing all over the country again and again, mainly because of the sanctions.
But, there must be a strong reason why Daw Su did take that hard line stance against the generals from the beginning. They even tried to kill her once. Please don’t forget Depayin massacre?
Also the massive exile group of 88 generation students, who witnessed or even personally experienced the army’s extreme brutalities, are now a major force in Burmese politics and they are the ones behind all the negative actions of western democracies against the Burmese generals.
With Daw Su’s incredibly long suffering on their side their group exile presence, even outside of Burma, is collectively more powerful than even U Nu when he unsuccessfully tried to topple Ne Win’s Socialist government.
The current sanctions will not go away until all the wrongs committed by the Burmese army against Daw Su and these students and the country as a whole are right again. Meanwhile, the poor Burmese will be plodding along, kept on going with their enormous suffering under a brutal military dictatorship.
stillwaters do not always run deep. I’ve actually read PAD’s proposals in simple English and simple Thai. After all, they are not particularly complex and nor are they new, despite the label “new politics.” The vote-buying allegations continue to be the PAD fallback position despite the fact that there is little evidence of the mass vote-buying they claimed for the December election. My point remains, PAD supporter and ideologue Chai-Anan referred to such arrangements as fascist-like in 1996. He was right and I think his observation is more than appropriate today.
I think there is something in jonfernquest’s view that referenda don’t solve deep-seated political issues. However his and KV’s statements about vote-buying reproduce the PAD line that most academic research shows is, at best, dated. See the link on Chang Noi’s recent piece.
PAD is at last being exposed for it is: a vested interest group of thugs who what to regain some vestige of the past when the military ruled and a government of the people was ineffectual. Midnight University and even factions of the Press Association are condeming PAD. A seminar held over the weekend involved some key academics (some of who are doing an about face after supporting Khor Mor Chor earlier) AT LAST coming out to disagree with PAD. These persons are worthy of naming (excuse my transliteration):
1. Prinya Tewanarumitkun (Law, Thammasat)
2. Nuanoy Trirat (Econ, Chula)
3. Somchai Prichasilapakun (Dean, Law, Chiangmai)
4. Praja Komkiratee (Pol.Sc., Chiangmai)
5. Sutthacahi Yimprasoet (Arts, Chula)
6. Surichai Wan’Keo (Pol.Sc., Chula)
7. Pitchaya Pongsawat (Pol.Sc., Chula)
8. Phairoj Pholphet, Human Rights Commission of Thailand
Further, an example of the bullshit generated against Thaksin and the TRT can be seen by exposing the influential political scientist Chai-Anan Samudavanija a key drafter of the illict 2007 Constitution.
This is from the independent Thai e-news web site. It was Chai-anan who behind Article 7 to appoint a PM outside of the election process and who collected a petition of ninety-five gullible (at the time) academics to present to the king. The king refused. This led to the coup. During the current PPP Government he started again the rumour about the Finland rebellion group intent on bringing the monarchy down and replacing it with a Republican system. This was a spin of huge proportions implicating Thaksin a couple of years back. Chai-anan works for Sondhi Lim and writes for his Manager publication- another opportunity for fiction spin. He supports the 70:30 clause and says that Thailand should not be a nation of full democracy but go backwards to the ancien regime dominated by the kharatchakan (government officials) system. He recently told Thai folk not to worry if there is another coup and to ignore what outsiders say (after all -look at the Philippines or Indonesia!)
Before the election there was a rumour that the military were going to field a political party and- guess what? -Chai-anan was the man who wanted to be the military’s prima donna. According to this article he has even greater personal ambitions (see [email protected]). They run exposé of these people regularly.
You may call me Mr. Norton. Your note on partisanship was the reason for my pots and kettles comment. Personally, I am not in favour of referenda for the kinds of nuanced and even disingenuous questions being proposed – and I mean by all sides, including your good self. This is simply grasping at straws, looking for a way to “solve” political dilemmas that are unlikely to be resolved by such an exercise. A referendum is a very blunt instrument indeed. Think of the junta’s referendum: do you agree with the constitution or not? For such a huge document, this is a sad question, merely seeking a justification for what they had done. You could see most of the current proposals in the same light. But, at least it was an offer of one way forward/out.
Ed: Perhaps Nick Nostitz can enlighten us regarding some of Sumeth’s assertions in post #29 , particularly the following:
– PPP involvement with the Red’s
– use of Rented buses
– recruitment & payment for services
– primed with alcohol
– arms (weapons)
Much of the other stuff, although plausible, is a combination of some facts, rumours & speculation.
Kusons: Good to see you are thinking outside the square/circle 🙂
Ed: IMO, the referendum (with questions as suggested by PPP) is certainly no compromise, and is just more of the same (intractable, self serving, disingenuous, incompetent?)
See my ‘blog’ for some alternative referendum questions that I quickly thought of when I heard Samak had proposed a referendum. http://www.nganadeeleg.blogspot.com
I’v just thought of another one:
What percentage of the parliament do you think should be elected?
A. 100%
B. 50%
C. 30%
As for the partisan comment, I did not mean to single you out, and was referring more to my dismay that partisanship continued to be the order of the day, even on this ‘academic’ blog.
btw, I hope you don’t mind me addressing you as Ed, instead of by a more formal title.
PAD’s idea of a new political system simplified in English.
Sometimes it’s better to stick to exactly what is said by PAD rather than try to derive or interpret what is said.
While I understand Ed Norton’s concerns there is also a flipside to their ideas. Nothing can really stop vote buying and we can assume it will continue—the appointed representatives from various labor related groups could still look out for the interest of their constituents.
An example would be that many farmers for instance are influenced to vote a certain way which may end up hurting their interests, however their union leader can still maintain the right to vote in the exact opposite direction.
In this case the farmer has his/her choice and yet still exert pressure on their occupational representative if they choose to.
I’m noticing that many people would rather oppose PAD than realize the possibility of a clean and more efficient government.
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Thai crisis. Royal silence.
R N England …. good and possibly salutary comment
about fascists and the monarchy…
but the Thai monarchy seems to studiously stay uninvolved in any political or power plays
perhaps because he knows this history also and thinks its better to maintain the royal place in society despite everything else…
selfish but maybe the thai people would prefer it that way
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
wasn’t exactly a super insightful article. the resignation came because Thailand is no longer on the brink war with Cambodia, but is now rather on the brink of civil war.
A PAD strategy?
vote buying is a key topic in this ….
does anyone know if anyone has tried to do the numbers on vote buying?
I wrote down some ideas on how to structure a reearch project:
Vote Buying
========
-check any pre-election polling
-seats in contention
-swinging voter identification
-party/politician competition
-how many votes could be bought (at 400B per vote?)?
-what was the winning margin in each electorate?
-estimate how many votes that would actually need to be bought on one side?
-what if both/multiple sides were buying votes, needing additional funding to achieve a given result?
-voter success in accepting money and not changing their actual vote (secret ballot)
-what evidence is there?
-what is the total amount of vote-buying that is proven?
-how much is not proven?
-are there plausible reasons why this money has not been traced?
-are there any conclusions that have been published by election observers about the Thai election practices?
-is there a conclusion, vote-buying is/is not a significant factor in Thai “free and fair” elections?
…….
very simplistically
a friend of mine suggested that perhaps 100M Baht could be spent
so, dividing by 400B per vote gives 250,000 votes max influenced
about 40M voters, margin 2M?
not enough money
so my conclusion is that its a beatup:
buying votes – I dont believe made a significant difference to the
election results (its the policies stupid…. through 4 democratic elections in a row!
compare this with the PAD offer
some corrupt rich people “nominating” the members of parliament for their own benefit?
I go for voting by all the Thai people every time instead of the corrupt few raping the country as usual
as someone said, the losers in elections always have ego issues, its a
measure of civilisation how they control it
A PAD strategy?
Oh Ed, I thought you’d be more mature than this stillwaters do not always run deep. (^_^) I think that sentence falls under the “irrelevant” part of the paragraph of rules.
Sometimes I overestimate people on NM. I thought this was a place to voice ideas/opinions (with evidence) or to guide people to educational resources. Not a place to poke fun of usernames. After all, like in other public forums you have pretenders hiding behind false identities all the time. Even people who talk to themselves and support their own posts under another id. It happens and I’m sure we’ve met them!
Jim an example of the bullshit generated against Thaksin
bullshit Thaksin can’t seem to dispel with evidence.
It’s not just Thaksin—it’s also the DAMAPONG FAMILY which needs to be examined closely.
The courts were in his pocket, otherwise he would not be allowed to tour the world on a “vacation” from politics. Come on, we gave him a headstart and he still has his passport.
This thread was about the PAD strategy and attempts to understand it but it evolved into how Thaksin is a poor, poor victim in all of this and the fall back to the issue regarding PAD and the military. The thing is when it comes to political ideas, rarely anything is “new” under the sun. Some American parties try to emulate their predecessors and even borrow ideas from across party lines. If Ed is being sincere then PAD needs better ideas.
Ed there is little evidence of the mass vote-buying they claimed for the December election
Ed you may want to take this issue to the courts Thailand’s Election Commission has ruled that the governing People’s Power Party commited electoral fraud in December polls and should be dissolved.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hG71oGl1LokvZphtDQZzL44nzc3QD92UCSF80
Sondhi’s mistake was to even discuss his new politics and should have kept it simple to just pointing out the obvious rather than confusing people.
1) Samak is a puppet (even few Thaksin supporters here can deny this).
2) Thaksin still plays politics and will continue to still be involved
“The news agency added that PPP members have already registered a new political party, which is expected to be housed in a building owned by Thaksin.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/02/thailand.protests/?iref=mpstoryview
Shouldn’t you all be cheering that Thaksin has turned into a political hydra. Thaksin will be with Thailand for a long time.
3) Thaksin is interfering in the judicial system
http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Soc/soc.culture.cambodia/2008-06/msg00592.html
If he wasn’t such a stingy man and gave 5 million instead of 2—there would be no problem (^_^). It was such a petty little case compared to the matter forever swept under the rug google “Thaksin extrajudicial killings”. PAD should have nailed him on this count.
Funny how some democracy loving westerners overlook HUMAN RIGHTS.
In closing Ed a vested interest group of thugs who what to regain some vestige of the past when the military rule . You can say the same of Thaksin.
Thaksin has classmates and associates in the police and military–I’m more concerned with a pro-Thaksin coup against Samak. Thaksin’s thugs are well armed and have leaders who are proud to appear in the media such as : р╕Вр╕зр╕▒р╕Нр╕Кр╕▒р╕в р╣Др╕Юр╕гр╕Юр╕Щр╕▓ . Look him up….
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
Colum Graham says “experience of previous situations where the military has shown itself to be inextricably tied to the monarchy… as the monarchy is the state.”
this seems a bit mysterious to me…
as far as I know the King has never said what he thinks except in things related to sustainable development, water management, etc … never to my knowledge any statements on the elements of government or its relationship to society, except in very general terms… like do your job diligently and all will be well, etc
all sorts of people and institutions claim to be operating with or for the monarchy… eg. military governments routinely claim to be supporting the monarchy, as do the PAD, etc, etc
the monarchy, specifically the king, princess and to lesser extents other members, are revered by the ordinary Thai people and would be protected by all those people if they got the chance
I think the Bangkok elite, rich and influential figures, etc use the idea of the monarchy when it suits them for their own purposes
a side thought just strikes me… the once highly regarded saviour of students for democracy, Chamlong Srimuang, is now the military strategist for the PAD. He is associated (how?) with the non-mainstream Santi Asoke Buddhist sect and he has surrounded himself with monks form the sect at the PAD protest. The Santi Asoke followers are cooking vegetarian food for the protesters and presumably the monks are there to give an outlet for those Thais that wish to give to monks (offering food in the mornngs) and also as a bodyguard for Chamlong and the other leaders. they know that the police and military would never force themselves through a barrier of monks. If you look closely at footage you can see the monks, strange that the media (english) has not mentioned them….
so some Thais will even use Buddhism for their own ends……
Report on last night’s clash
Thanks, Nick.
Many commentators have said that PAD want violence to break out as it helps their cause, but they do not appear as ready to start it as the Red’s are.
Whilst the PAD are definitely not non-violent, it does sound like things can be controlled as long as the Red’s stay away.
Sorry to raise the question, but I wonder if you are being objective regarding the’ involvement’ of the PPP with the Red’s when you compare it to the Democrats with the PAD, because from a distance it does look to me that the involvent of certain elements of the PPP is more hands on than the Democrats.
btw, Do you honestly think the government has done all it could have to resolve the crisis (non violently)?
(or is that too political a question for a photo-journalist to answer?)
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
The relationship between the PAD and the Thai monarchy recalls the uneasy and temporary alliances between the fascists and the monarchies of Spain and Italy early last century. The monarchies lost out in both countries: to the general in Spain, and to the rabble-rouser in Italy. Spain survived for many years as a moribund, Burma-style dictatorship. Italy was devasted by the war brought on it by fascism. The European monarchies that survived or revived were the ones that ceded political power to democratically elected government.
An extract from Handley’s TKNS
“But, at least it was an offer of one way forward/out”.
If the reports are accurate regarding the proposed referendum question, then I’ve get serious doubts the PPP can solve anything!
(If that’s the best they can come up with, what hope is there?)
Mr Norton it is from now on, and my apologies for being so presumptuous.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
Prove otherwise then! You won’t do it by mindlessly and slavishly following any of the major protagonists in this conflict. But that is precisely what is happening. A good solid slightly left-leaning party built from the roots up wouldn’t be a bad start. But it never works like that, does it? Indeed, most of the Octoberists have sold their souls to the Thaksin Devil for the sake of a comfortable retirement. And those people who do have some credibility left are treated like social pariahs.
Report on last night’s clash
“nganadeeleg”:
Democrats are highly involved with yellows – PPP are highly involved with the reds. But don’t forget – Yellows were formed first – both before the coup, and again after the elections. The initiative is clearly carried by yellow.
And additionally – there is far more army involvement with yellows – in training of the Naclop Srivichai up to army officers having taken part in the fighting on the streets as well, on the side of the yellows.
Both sides use rented buses.
Payment for services is done on both sides, maybe more on the side of the reds. To what extend is very difficult to say. What i can say though, this is not such a simplistic issue, what i feel is more important is that regardless of payment – people taking part on both sides are convinced of their righteousness. From my personal talks feel that yellow is several steps more fanatic though, and far less open to any criticism, and far more hostile to contrarian views.
Nobody is “primed” with alcohol – most reds are from Isaarn and the North. In those villages alcohol is a culture. If you have ever spent some time in those villages then Lao Khao is drunk every day, is integral part of social life.
Many yellow fighters are high on Bai Kratom – police pulled in their attempt of clearing the streets of government house a huge sack of Bai Kratom, and displayed it to the media. And this definitely was not planted. The aggression level of yellow fighters is very high, a Nation TV reporter filmed me when i was threatened by a group of Naclop Srivichai for trying to take their photo, i don’t know though if the clip appeared at their website.
I have been aware of both sides being armed since the first Thammasat meeting of PAD after the elections. PAD brought wooden sticks, the UDD splinter groups rocks (at that time it was only a small group that protested, a not the majority of UDD – and i know for a fact that the main UDD leaders were not even aware of them at the time).
After the PAD used guns during the street fight, you can expect that if it comes to the next fight – there will be more firearms used by both sides. There are claims that UDD also used guns during the street fight and wounded one PAD fighter, yet all the gunshots i have heard during the fight came from the side the PAD held. Of course i can’t completely exclude these claims, i can only state what i have seen and heard.
Also afterwards, in the sois, the PAD has shot out of the dark Sois, while UDD has used slingshots. I have been uncomfortably close to that.
Right now there is a small window of opportunity as the reds have decided to retreat for a while. If there is no retreat from government house under whatever conditions by PAD very soon, and the Southern fighters go back where they came from – i expect that fighting will continue, and then it’s going to be ugly.
Don’t underestimate the seriousness of the situation.
Interview with Burma’s Ma Thanegi
I don’t agree with Dr Win Maung’s statement that massive 70% of Burmese sides with the generals so long as there is peace,stability and some degree of freedom and fairness to all ethnic groups including minorities.
Because there is no peace, no stability, no freedom, and no fairness to the minorities in our beloved Burma. Even the Burmese pride from extreme nationalism brought about by Ne Win’s coup earlier had already evaporated since the late seventies.
If there is such a group, they would mainly be the people who have economic advantages over the impoverished majority because of their close relationship with the ruling generals. Their percentage would be so low one can count with one’s fingers.
But, I do sympathize with Ma Theingi for her genuine opposition to the economic and trade sanctions against Burma. The sanctions not only hurt the ruling generals but it also hurt ordinary working Burmese. Maybe more to the people than the generals as the generals have money from the drug and gas sales, while people has no other alternatives to earn a living than work in the sanction-effected industries.
One particularly sad case against the sanctions is what happened to the textile industry after the sanctions. Many small and median sized cloth making shops employing hundreds of thousands of Burmese women and girls all over Rangoon are now long closed because of US and European sanctions.
Many of these decent working girls are now being forced into sex trade and many eventually end up in the neighboring countries’s sex industry. It is a real sad story repeatedly playing all over the country again and again, mainly because of the sanctions.
But, there must be a strong reason why Daw Su did take that hard line stance against the generals from the beginning. They even tried to kill her once. Please don’t forget Depayin massacre?
Also the massive exile group of 88 generation students, who witnessed or even personally experienced the army’s extreme brutalities, are now a major force in Burmese politics and they are the ones behind all the negative actions of western democracies against the Burmese generals.
With Daw Su’s incredibly long suffering on their side their group exile presence, even outside of Burma, is collectively more powerful than even U Nu when he unsuccessfully tried to topple Ne Win’s Socialist government.
The current sanctions will not go away until all the wrongs committed by the Burmese army against Daw Su and these students and the country as a whole are right again. Meanwhile, the poor Burmese will be plodding along, kept on going with their enormous suffering under a brutal military dictatorship.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
We are coming back to the same old topic: that the Thai people have the mentality of a child and need to be guided by the divine hand, always.
A PAD strategy?
stillwaters do not always run deep. I’ve actually read PAD’s proposals in simple English and simple Thai. After all, they are not particularly complex and nor are they new, despite the label “new politics.” The vote-buying allegations continue to be the PAD fallback position despite the fact that there is little evidence of the mass vote-buying they claimed for the December election. My point remains, PAD supporter and ideologue Chai-Anan referred to such arrangements as fascist-like in 1996. He was right and I think his observation is more than appropriate today.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
I think there is something in jonfernquest’s view that referenda don’t solve deep-seated political issues. However his and KV’s statements about vote-buying reproduce the PAD line that most academic research shows is, at best, dated. See the link on Chang Noi’s recent piece.
A PAD strategy?
PAD is at last being exposed for it is: a vested interest group of thugs who what to regain some vestige of the past when the military ruled and a government of the people was ineffectual. Midnight University and even factions of the Press Association are condeming PAD. A seminar held over the weekend involved some key academics (some of who are doing an about face after supporting Khor Mor Chor earlier) AT LAST coming out to disagree with PAD. These persons are worthy of naming (excuse my transliteration):
1. Prinya Tewanarumitkun (Law, Thammasat)
2. Nuanoy Trirat (Econ, Chula)
3. Somchai Prichasilapakun (Dean, Law, Chiangmai)
4. Praja Komkiratee (Pol.Sc., Chiangmai)
5. Sutthacahi Yimprasoet (Arts, Chula)
6. Surichai Wan’Keo (Pol.Sc., Chula)
7. Pitchaya Pongsawat (Pol.Sc., Chula)
8. Phairoj Pholphet, Human Rights Commission of Thailand
Further, an example of the bullshit generated against Thaksin and the TRT can be seen by exposing the influential political scientist Chai-Anan Samudavanija a key drafter of the illict 2007 Constitution.
This is from the independent Thai e-news web site. It was Chai-anan who behind Article 7 to appoint a PM outside of the election process and who collected a petition of ninety-five gullible (at the time) academics to present to the king. The king refused. This led to the coup. During the current PPP Government he started again the rumour about the Finland rebellion group intent on bringing the monarchy down and replacing it with a Republican system. This was a spin of huge proportions implicating Thaksin a couple of years back. Chai-anan works for Sondhi Lim and writes for his Manager publication- another opportunity for fiction spin. He supports the 70:30 clause and says that Thailand should not be a nation of full democracy but go backwards to the ancien regime dominated by the kharatchakan (government officials) system. He recently told Thai folk not to worry if there is another coup and to ignore what outsiders say (after all -look at the Philippines or Indonesia!)
Before the election there was a rumour that the military were going to field a political party and- guess what? -Chai-anan was the man who wanted to be the military’s prima donna. According to this article he has even greater personal ambitions (see [email protected]). They run exposé of these people regularly.
An extract from Handley’s TKNS
You may call me Mr. Norton. Your note on partisanship was the reason for my pots and kettles comment. Personally, I am not in favour of referenda for the kinds of nuanced and even disingenuous questions being proposed – and I mean by all sides, including your good self. This is simply grasping at straws, looking for a way to “solve” political dilemmas that are unlikely to be resolved by such an exercise. A referendum is a very blunt instrument indeed. Think of the junta’s referendum: do you agree with the constitution or not? For such a huge document, this is a sad question, merely seeking a justification for what they had done. You could see most of the current proposals in the same light. But, at least it was an offer of one way forward/out.
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
Welcome back Sidh. Where’s Teth?
Report on last night’s clash
Ed: Perhaps Nick Nostitz can enlighten us regarding some of Sumeth’s assertions in post #29 , particularly the following:
– PPP involvement with the Red’s
– use of Rented buses
– recruitment & payment for services
– primed with alcohol
– arms (weapons)
Much of the other stuff, although plausible, is a combination of some facts, rumours & speculation.
Kusons: Good to see you are thinking outside the square/circle 🙂
An extract from Handley’s TKNS
Ed: IMO, the referendum (with questions as suggested by PPP) is certainly no compromise, and is just more of the same (intractable, self serving, disingenuous, incompetent?)
See my ‘blog’ for some alternative referendum questions that I quickly thought of when I heard Samak had proposed a referendum.
http://www.nganadeeleg.blogspot.com
I’v just thought of another one:
What percentage of the parliament do you think should be elected?
A. 100%
B. 50%
C. 30%
As for the partisan comment, I did not mean to single you out, and was referring more to my dismay that partisanship continued to be the order of the day, even on this ‘academic’ blog.
btw, I hope you don’t mind me addressing you as Ed, instead of by a more formal title.
Hobby
A PAD strategy?
For reference:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_News/04Sep2008_news23.php
PAD’s idea of a new political system simplified in English.
Sometimes it’s better to stick to exactly what is said by PAD rather than try to derive or interpret what is said.
While I understand Ed Norton’s concerns there is also a flipside to their ideas. Nothing can really stop vote buying and we can assume it will continue—the appointed representatives from various labor related groups could still look out for the interest of their constituents.
An example would be that many farmers for instance are influenced to vote a certain way which may end up hurting their interests, however their union leader can still maintain the right to vote in the exact opposite direction.
In this case the farmer has his/her choice and yet still exert pressure on their occupational representative if they choose to.
I’m noticing that many people would rather oppose PAD than realize the possibility of a clean and more efficient government.