nganadeeleg: I realize that this is a two-person conversation, but the idea of compromise and ways out seems worthy of discussion away from the din of other threads on the crisis. It seems an attempt at some kind of compromise or at least a reaching out from parliament is being made: http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=130416. What do you think?
At the same breaking news site, senators seem to have other suggestions that, frankly, seems dumb: if PAD doesn’t agree on solving the crisis, then there must be an election. That is a blank check for street mobs of all political shades.
But then Greater Bangkok, including the Eastern Seaboard, should contribute 50% (or its contribution to GDP) and the rest of the country 50% to the overall vote total. Why? Because these are the areas that are leading the country economically into the future.
The only thing that the Samak administration has done to date that I can see is provide subsidies to groups to protest loud enough.
Tendencies towards a socialist economy might seem ideal to left-leaning academics, but IMHO in the context of Asian history and development as a whole (Korea, China, Taiwan, Malaysia), a premature welfare state would severely hamper the country’s ability to adapt in the future, in the ways it needs to adapt if it wants to remain a viable force in the world economy. ANU academics are likely to laugh at the following Sondhi quote:
“Somebody said ‘don’t the poor have the right to vote,'” Sondhi said. “They do have the right to vote. We also have the right to educate them. Give them access to the information. The problem is they don’t have access to the right information now.”
ANU and other western universities could provide this information in rural Thailand and help rural Thailand better their livelihoods. Where are they? IMHO If they were there, doing the day-to-day grunt slog work of education (not intellectual rent-seeking name-brand-building research publication), their opinions would be a lot more relevant. As it stands, these opinions just seem paternalistic.
stillwaters run over! I do not have the time or energy to reply to everything you say. I do want to say that I stumbled into this conversation as I was looking for the thread on Chai-Anan. On that, you say that Sondhi Lim was mistaken to express his ideas. I agree. However, I am thankful that he did, for it was revealing on his political colours to many. But a couple of comments. Your evidence for *mass* vote-buying (the terminology I used) is irrelevant. One case (or even a few) does not make a mass, and the EC essentially agreed that there was not mass vote-buying and the election observers concurred. You seem to be saying in your recent post that governments should not offer policy choices (roads, railways, bridges, development funds, social welfare etc.) to voters as incentives for them to vote for them. How would that be organised so that there was no competition on policy? By an appointed parliament perhaps? Finally, I made no comment about military and thugs in this thread.
Why do you spit on poor people? Aren’t they allowed to share the growing wealth of the Thai nation?
I suppose you still believe in the old fashioned saying: vox populi vox barbari. But so far no system has been better than democracy: I hope you’re looking for fairness and not just trying to protect some vested interest of yours or of your friends.
Really, how sad that you scornfully trash the referendum, which in this case isn’t populism at all, but is a real non-violent opportunity to settle this discord once for all.
The ‘poor people’ whose judgment you’re spitting on will have the last word anyway. Time is for the people!
Yes, jonfernquest, those damned villagers can’t be trusted with votes or with decision-making about their own development. You know, you raise another interesting point. Under TRT, there was a more rapid movement towards decentralisation than under previous governments, and this is one of the early complaints from Sonthi Lim and others – that middle class taxes were paying for rural development and that their money was being wasted. Of course, one of the ASC’s tasks was to root out and prove this wastefulness by way of corruption charges.
Thanks Nick. Useful insights indeed. And it is most useful for me that kusons keeps writing his long defenses of PAD and their tactics and proposals. Confirms my negative views of this group and its supporters.
re the whole question of handling the PAD, I just sent the following to the Bangkok Post:
When commenting about the very light hand adopted by the police and military why has the Post not mentioned that there are Santi Asoke monks amongst the protesters?
Even if the police and military might want to disperse the PAD and
arrest its leaders they are seriously constrained because the PAD is
cunning and immoral enough to put children, women, old people and monks in harms way.
Some people have suggested that the police and military should seal the compound, restricting entry of any people or supplies, switch off the power and water and allow the PAD protesters to disperse.
However, I am sure this has been thought through and it is recognised that the PAD would ensure there are medical and other emergencies that they can blame on the “violent” confrontation’
Instead of naively and innocently highlighting the ineptitude of the government, police and military the Post should help readers to understand the broader picture of this confrontation.
We should all have sympathy for the police and military in the front
line and their commanders and the government in discovering a humane solution to the illegal and inconvenient occupation of the government compound.
Unfortunately the only real solution is for the authorities to hold the line calmly and quietly while everyone, especially the PAD protesters, have time to think through and recognise what they are doing and show their good sense by gradually dispersing.
While waiting for good sense to prevail, the justice system can handle some of the backlog of cases including considering the cases against leaders, who may be convicted in absentia, and the government can keep on doing its job of developing the country.
I think the main point here is that while everyone carries on about vote buying, its the policies, such as decentralisation of contracts and work into a region that is probably much more important in determining votes…..
so, a party that has attractive policies can leave the vote buyers in their dust…. and I think thats what has happened in Thailand…. the PAD and the traditional power brokers are just slow learners and dont know how to live in the new Thailand…
maybe the traditional politicians actually spent more money that the TRT and PPP but still lost! no wonder they are upset
David Brown, it’s only my analysis and maybe totally inaccurate – especially in times like these. I see it this way – PMSamak has everything to lose (the premiership and, most critically, his face, his saksee – “the world is watching” he recently said). MajGenChamlong, on the other hand, has nothing to lose… Both are rather well known for their inflexibility. That’s why I think, when push comes to shove, it’s down to these two men…
It’s good to be back for this Nganadeeleg. Maybe Teth is finishing up his thesis or something?
Nick: I think you’re panicking that PAD is bringing down the country. I think PAD is more Principled, than Thaksin, PPP, Samak, Government combined. That’s my personal feel.
PAD tactics intentionally would be that South Korea used once successfully , where to get their Government to resign, everyone – white collar, blue collar etc. stopped work. The government resigned after a few days, and that was it. Its a psychological game that can bring the country down, but PAD betting Samak won’t go that far; However, as the Unstatesman Samak won’t back down you can see that PAD has backed down in turning off the water and internet gateways etc. So, not as much chaos as you think, Nick?
Taxin has not organized the Government House siege, that was PAD,…
Who started it? In my view it clearly was Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD. This led to a military coup, and from there only one escalation after the other, mostly driven by PAD, followed by crude and inefficient tactics by a government clearly overwhelmed by this.
But PAD is out to destroy the whole system, and replace it with something the vast majority of Thais will never accept.
I should rewind way back to early 1990s when Mr. Toxin was foreign minister. My sister was working in a project there and word was, he was doing business deals during this Official Trips. While he wasn’t known then, and that isn’t death-sentence violation, but it is not hard for him, with his brilliant mind, corrupt way of business, to advance in his career path to the Monster he is currently now.
FYI, Mr. Toxin preceded PAD, as A comes before B,C,D,E and F In the matter of fact, PAD came up as a response to Toxin’s Mischievous Deeds, so if you can’t see who began this this is another reason we’d better agree to disagree.
SCENARIO: Lets just say, without PAD, this Government that you don’t like will continue its Bulldozing Monstrousity UnOpposed, and while you’ll have a good time getting to talk and having pleasant interviews, enjoying the peace with your expatriate salary, good fitness clubs, Thai smiles, etc, the people suffering are the Thais — and NOT middle class and upper class Thais like me who can afford to stay apathetic if we want, but the Poorer Thais who belive their PPP goverment is doing some Sustainable Policies of Giving Out Money for them to buy Mobile Phones and Motorbikes and Pickup Trucks (Read: 3 year shelf life), happy enough to be poorer and poorer, while the government Sells off Their Country and rake in Ugly Money. The Thai Government will spend the money on building some budget Expensive Parliament (50% goes to who?), while spending much lesser to keep the People Dumbed Down.
And don’t think all people who currently suppport PAD support the 70-30 government Sonthi is proposing either.
OTHERS I have found the PAD rather hostile to every attempt of journalism, their leaders are not willing to engage in talks…i know that many other journalists, Thai and foreign, have exactly the same view
IMHO: Nothing wrong with you Nick, but the reason why PAD probably suspects foreign media is the same reason why you and probably most Western-Ideal-Democracy persons blanket impose on the situation that is unique as in Thailand [this thread covered in my above discussion and elsewhere in NM], and present it ugly. So quite normal if they are belligerent, knowing you might blindly impose Western Standards, like Filling up a Car with Benzine Engine with Diesel Fuel.
Both sides use rented buses.
IMHO: PAD Buses come from PAD provinces throughout Thailand, who join the protest. NPK buses, come to carry out the commando missions to beat down pad (buses paid by the day I suspect)
Payment for services is done on both sides, maybe more on the side of the reds…. From my personal talks feel that yellow is several steps more fanatic though, and far less open to any criticism, and far more hostile to contrarian views.
IMHO: Reference to PAD’s suspicion to you Nick (Journalists) [hey -listen, when In the Government House I was suspected on being a spy as well but I cleared myself; They are very attentive for spies and from you here, journalists]; Also, it is so expected that the “Reds” (who many are tricked into coming to Bkk, or bought) should be “agreeable people” because they don’t want to Change the government (aside many being clueless), whereas “Yellows” (who are quite tired from attending the Marathon 100+ days dispute, having to break laws, having to fend themselves against “Red Hitmen” when outside the PAD areas) are quite knowledgable about what they want already, and are there to Change the government! So its quite so easy to predict that Nick.
Most reds are from Isaarn and the North. In those villages alcohol is a culture
Many yellow fighters are high on Bai Kratom
IMHO: Alchohol is like “Free Beer on the House” in Western Pubs, and designed to be an incentive to bring in the crowds (“Guys! Come to Bangkok! You get 500-1000THB, and guess what — FREE ALCOHOL! Hooray!”); I’m not sure about the Kratom, but know from another PAD that it gives a drug effect of “happiness” but non-narcotic, popular in the south.
Despite all our differences, perhaps what we can agree are these future scenarios:
CASE 1) NO PAD:If you want PAD to disperse and use the Normal Corrupt PPP + their willingness to do Corrupt ways to win, then we may be seeing this government for 4 years, Constitution is Patched by Majority Governemnt, Thaksin probably coming back on the 3rd year. I’m not sure you’ll be happy with this, but alot of Western People will probably be Proud that Thailand is a Western Democratic Country, but Thailand in deep s**t. [Just look at PPP party. Look at Samak. Look at Chalerm. Look at Jakrapob. Look at their “Unsustainable Policies”. Look what they can do at the expense of common good]
CASE 2) PAD LIMITED: PAD disperses, but pressure the government to let the Courts cleanly continue to pursue and * somehow * prevent the Government from Changing the Constitution, which is Highly Unlikely, then we may *just* get by with PPP dissolution, and Thaksin still in “Exile”. This option still allows PPP to return, and Thaksin find a comeback, without any solidarity movement to uproot Thaksinism. I’m quite sure you’ll be happy this, Western People still Proud that Thailand is Western Democratic Country, but Thailand problems (PPP+Thaksinism) aren’t solved.
CASE 3) PAD ACTIVE: PAD continues to prevent government from clowning around to save Toxins A**, prevent change of constitution. PAD backs down when the Solitary Samak “doesn’t care country going to chaos, I want my seat”. PAD ensures PPP, Thaksin prosecuted -THE ROOT CAUSE OF 10+ YEARS OF PAIN. PAD then either does the (70:30 -which I’m personally not in favor nor I think the Democrats will accept ) OR Educates the North+NorthEast before the elections and we get a cleaner government, where possibly Democrats get over 50% of the majority. With PAD as Watchdog, we should have a much cleaner government.
Which one will you — or anyone of us–choose , or do you have other opinions about future scenarios that should work (Please label them Case 4, Case 5, etc.)? Or are you simply packing? (ref your “Don’t underestimate the seriousness of the situation.“)
Nick: I accept the government has had many forces fighting against it, but I still cannot help thinking that they have brought much of the current turmoil upon themselves.
(Just like Thaksin would probably still be in power if he chose to pay proper & fair taxes)
I said months ago what PPP should have done was put their proposed draft constitution to parliamentry debate, and then put the final draft to a public referendum.
If PPP had done that, the PAD would not have a leg to stand on, and even if they had staged this audacious protest, Samak would have been able to justify nipping it in the bud.
On reflection, I think PPP have been so hamstrung because deep down they know they have not been doing the right thing, and therefore could not justify decisive action to quell the protest.
I still do not think it is too late to start doing things right!
(hint, hint to any PPP power brokers who may be reading this 🙂 )
No doubt the PAD would not be satisfied (they never are), but if PPP had developed and explained a more consultative process, publicised what they have done to accommodate genuine concerns, get court approval for removal of the protesters, announce a final deadline with warning to disperse for your own safety etc, then they would have been well justified (in fact compelled as a good/competent government) to go ahead with the dispersal in a compassionate way
The 6 months delay EC referendum dealay is not really that bad – all PPP has to do is agree now that they will consult regarding the constitutional amendments and propose a new ‘peoples’ constitution – sounds good and keeps everyone happy, whilst they will still probably get what they want in the end anyway!
Referendums can take place later, but they would have done enough to diffuse the standoff, and force the PAD to go home.
PS. Sorry to regurgitate parts of what I have already written over at Bangkok Pundits site, but I have not had time to start again or put it up on my ‘blog’ page.
Osborne: “… the army is showing little inclination to enforce the state of emergency the prime minister has sought to impose”
amberwaves: “what evidence is there that Samak and Anupong are not on the same page”
IMHO Amberwaves is right and Osborne is not.
Samak and the military have been working together in many ways, enforcement of lese majeste, no violence against PAD for the military, no coup for Samak. Samak now occupies the Supreme Commander’s office after his office was taken over by PAD.
Osborne: “Tej’s departure has all the elements of a signal that the king wants a rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand”.
Doesn’t everyone want a “rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand” ?
Remember Anand’s comments on royal intervention: “His Majesty has been through 16 constitutions, 18 coups d’etat and 24 prime ministers. He has an acute grasp of constitutional rule, yet he remains detached from politics, playing a non-partisan role in the country’s political process and development.” (Bangkok Post Article August 24, 2007, SPEECH BY ANAND PANYARACHUN, The monarchy: an indispensable institution)
Is a non-partisan role really possible now? Whatever intervention the king makes, one party will lose. Where is Suchinda nowadays?
i spent several weeks with sgaw karen villagers in chiang mai province earlier this year (also conducting research for my MA thesis, although not specifically on the royal projects)…
the supposed “success” of the royal projects could not be confirmed by the villagers i encountered either… indeed, most of them were also facing increasing debt… furthermore, the projects’ introduction of chemical fertilizers has endangered their clean drinking water supply…
thus, the villagers i encountered overwhelmingly felt that the royal projects (coupled with the outlawing of the practice of rotational swidden agriculture on which they have traditionally relied) had not improved their lives, but had made their situation more precarious…
i therefore agree wholeheartedly with your assessment that measuring the success of these projects in monetary terms alone leads to a highly distorted picture… i also agree that the paternalistic attitude of the thai authorities leads to a lack of consideration for the needs and wishes of the people on the ground…
would there be any chance i could get a copy of your thesis?
I appreciate the thought put into David Brown’s reply. You can skim over the past Yongyuth case to see if it supports your ideas or not: http://www.thailandqa.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19106 (thread copied from BKKpost)
I don’t know about pre-election polling in very rural far flung places. I’ve never read of pre-election poll stats taken in those areas although I assume if one were to research this someone has to simply ask the local abbot at the temple who he thinks his lay followers would choosel.
Just wanted to add to your list: non-cash vote buying. I found it fascinating that very very cheap gifts can be handed out sort of like tickets to claim a cash amount later on after the elections are done with and the box removed. Then how is one to appraise the gift/item and at the same time find where they claim the cash?
I know that sounds weird but coming up with an average amount to buy one vote is hard because there is local skimming by village elders so you can imagine if the village elder gets a budget to sway the vote he may end up keeping a good portion. If a villager decides to provide info on the amount he received—how is an investigator supposed to determine the original large sum given to the village headman?
It’s certainly hard to get hard numbers on “vote buying”.
The issue is vote buying may be too specific a term.
Vote swaying is more like it. You don’t have to hand out cash as people walk away from the box. In fact cash may be too obvious. Vote buyins has evolved and become very sophisticated. Take into account that at the local level, strongmen have jobs and angle for contracts.
You don’t transfer money into an account. That’s so passe! You give contract jobs in construction or other form of employment. Keep the contract coming, keep the villagers, who are your employees working. That’s the sad part. Some people need it to survive.
All is well.
Oh dear, I just convinced myself vote buying is okay and if I can’t find cashed check stubs or money transfer records it doesn’t exist on a very large scale.
One other element in vote swaying (not unique to Thailand) is Thaksin and “Buddhism”.
Thaksin have tapped into the Dhammakaya elite. What Dhammakaya is in Pathum Thani (well their main complex but they have 2?branches in the USA).
Do you think that Dhammakaya’s several thousand strong supporters if swayed by their abbot, Dhammachayo, to vote for the PPP or its future incarnations has any influence? Thaksin made $$$ donations to the temple.
Yes ofcourse this happens in the USA too where the GOP’s strategy has always been to use the church to do their promo.
I go for voting by all the Thai people every time instead of the corrupt few raping the country as usual
I think the PPP elite count for more than a “few”. You forgot to count Thaksin’s overseas associates who are also in on the game.
I’d like to see more voter education. Have you all noticed the LACK of voter reading material distributed in the rural areas? That’s another key issue—education. Elections are decided in rural karaoke bars, temples, factories and everything is done VERBALLY.
If our average voter wanted to study the facts–he or she has very little to study (other than the roadside billboard). If flyers are made how many are actually distributed?
David have you heard about Samak’s national referendum idea?
It should work out well since Thaksin sold Man-City shares (or the whole team I can’t recall at all). If Thaksin’s bank account is happy, he wins again. Just watch.
“However his and KV’s statements about vote-buying reproduce the PAD line that most academic research shows is, at best, dated. See the link on Chang Noi’s recent piece.”
Chang Noi’s piece essentially says that rural electorate has come to realise that it does have power.
Whether that power is being used in a wise manner or not, for long-term investment rather than short-term consumption has not been answered adequately at all as far as I can see.
I have yet to see a detailed study that shows how village fund money is being used effectively. I would bet that villagers have no clear idea themselves how it is being used.
Dumping money in villages irrespective of how it is used is going to have a positive Keynesian multiplier effect.
Handouts and subsidies are not investment. Some Subsidies such as the LPG subsidy have resulted in seriously distorted incentives and behaviour.
Because very few foreign journalists have spent much time with the UDD before and after the elections, i naturally had to not just take photos ( unpaid, unsold and unpublished at the time, fortunately this has changed now) but also into the political background.
My personal impression is that the PAD is far more advanced in strategy and tactics, including media spin. The UDD and the government are amateurish against them, and therefore always appear as initiators of violence, crude and primitive. Which they aren’t.
The PAD is masters in cornering the government. Don’t underestimate this. A while ago i was made aware that for at least three months the PAD has built a nationwide underground network, command structure, and as it appears now – fighting troops as well, with heavy involvement of pro-PAD military factions of both retired and active officers.
That, in retrospect, could also shine a somewhat different light on the ugly Udon incident.
The Democrat involvement was rumored for a long time, for me it became absolutely clear how high it is was when Abhisit (and the 30 senators) came to the rescue of the nearly defeated PAD at the day when police nearly managed to clear the streets around Government House (with minimal violence and valid court orders!). This was active collaboration, to give the PAD inside Government House time to restructure, and chase police away from the streets. I would very much like to see both Abhisit and the 30 Senators being charged for this.
This went way beyond their confines as parliamentarians and senators, to disrupt a court ordered ongoing action by the police.
Regardless if one likes the Government, or not (and i do not like it) – what the PAD and their backers do has to be defined as an attempted revolution. Their political aims – 30:70 is an attempted overthrow of the constitution and democracy with unconstitutional methods, such as the completely unprecedented ongoing illegal occupation of Government House, the attack on NBT, the closure of several airports, threads and attempts to disrupt vital functions of country and legally elected government. There simply is no law that would permit these actions.
For now it appears that the government has bought itself some much needed time, but expect a worsening of the situation soon. Because it is obvious that the PAD will not give up before they have achieved their aims, or lost.
You can see from Yeyint’s comments the problems you are up against. His underlying assumption is that if you disagree with sanctions against Myanmar, you might well be in the pay of the generals. It is a good stick to beat anyone who is against sanctions. Frankly, I have never come across a single scholar or foreign journalist who is pro-junta, not a single one. But Yeyint clearly sees it important to perpetuate the myth of apologists and collaborators. It is the mentality of : “You are either with us or against us”. You are either pro-sanctions and anti-regime, or anti-sanctions and pro-regime.
He is right on one point, though, which is that the generals have in the past used lobbying firms in the US – nowhere else – to seek support for their policies. This would not be the first time that governments have done so.
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An extract from Handley’s TKNS
nganadeeleg: I realize that this is a two-person conversation, but the idea of compromise and ways out seems worthy of discussion away from the din of other threads on the crisis. It seems an attempt at some kind of compromise or at least a reaching out from parliament is being made: http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=130416. What do you think?
At the same breaking news site, senators seem to have other suggestions that, frankly, seems dumb: if PAD doesn’t agree on solving the crisis, then there must be an election. That is a blank check for street mobs of all political shades.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
“One man, one vote.”
“One person, one vote,” isn’t it?
But then Greater Bangkok, including the Eastern Seaboard, should contribute 50% (or its contribution to GDP) and the rest of the country 50% to the overall vote total. Why? Because these are the areas that are leading the country economically into the future.
The only thing that the Samak administration has done to date that I can see is provide subsidies to groups to protest loud enough.
Tendencies towards a socialist economy might seem ideal to left-leaning academics, but IMHO in the context of Asian history and development as a whole (Korea, China, Taiwan, Malaysia), a premature welfare state would severely hamper the country’s ability to adapt in the future, in the ways it needs to adapt if it wants to remain a viable force in the world economy. ANU academics are likely to laugh at the following Sondhi quote:
“Somebody said ‘don’t the poor have the right to vote,'” Sondhi said. “They do have the right to vote. We also have the right to educate them. Give them access to the information. The problem is they don’t have access to the right information now.”
ANU and other western universities could provide this information in rural Thailand and help rural Thailand better their livelihoods. Where are they? IMHO If they were there, doing the day-to-day grunt slog work of education (not intellectual rent-seeking name-brand-building research publication), their opinions would be a lot more relevant. As it stands, these opinions just seem paternalistic.
A PAD strategy?
stillwaters run over! I do not have the time or energy to reply to everything you say. I do want to say that I stumbled into this conversation as I was looking for the thread on Chai-Anan. On that, you say that Sondhi Lim was mistaken to express his ideas. I agree. However, I am thankful that he did, for it was revealing on his political colours to many. But a couple of comments. Your evidence for *mass* vote-buying (the terminology I used) is irrelevant. One case (or even a few) does not make a mass, and the EC essentially agreed that there was not mass vote-buying and the election observers concurred. You seem to be saying in your recent post that governments should not offer policy choices (roads, railways, bridges, development funds, social welfare etc.) to voters as incentives for them to vote for them. How would that be organised so that there was no competition on policy? By an appointed parliament perhaps? Finally, I made no comment about military and thugs in this thread.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
To Johnferquest:
Why do you spit on poor people? Aren’t they allowed to share the growing wealth of the Thai nation?
I suppose you still believe in the old fashioned saying: vox populi vox barbari. But so far no system has been better than democracy: I hope you’re looking for fairness and not just trying to protect some vested interest of yours or of your friends.
Really, how sad that you scornfully trash the referendum, which in this case isn’t populism at all, but is a real non-violent opportunity to settle this discord once for all.
The ‘poor people’ whose judgment you’re spitting on will have the last word anyway. Time is for the people!
Take care jonny, and have a nice day ;-p
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
Yes, jonfernquest, those damned villagers can’t be trusted with votes or with decision-making about their own development. You know, you raise another interesting point. Under TRT, there was a more rapid movement towards decentralisation than under previous governments, and this is one of the early complaints from Sonthi Lim and others – that middle class taxes were paying for rural development and that their money was being wasted. Of course, one of the ASC’s tasks was to root out and prove this wastefulness by way of corruption charges.
Report on last night’s clash
Thanks Nick. Useful insights indeed. And it is most useful for me that kusons keeps writing his long defenses of PAD and their tactics and proposals. Confirms my negative views of this group and its supporters.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
re the whole question of handling the PAD, I just sent the following to the Bangkok Post:
When commenting about the very light hand adopted by the police and military why has the Post not mentioned that there are Santi Asoke monks amongst the protesters?
Even if the police and military might want to disperse the PAD and
arrest its leaders they are seriously constrained because the PAD is
cunning and immoral enough to put children, women, old people and monks in harms way.
Some people have suggested that the police and military should seal the compound, restricting entry of any people or supplies, switch off the power and water and allow the PAD protesters to disperse.
However, I am sure this has been thought through and it is recognised that the PAD would ensure there are medical and other emergencies that they can blame on the “violent” confrontation’
Instead of naively and innocently highlighting the ineptitude of the government, police and military the Post should help readers to understand the broader picture of this confrontation.
We should all have sympathy for the police and military in the front
line and their commanders and the government in discovering a humane solution to the illegal and inconvenient occupation of the government compound.
Unfortunately the only real solution is for the authorities to hold the line calmly and quietly while everyone, especially the PAD protesters, have time to think through and recognise what they are doing and show their good sense by gradually dispersing.
While waiting for good sense to prevail, the justice system can handle some of the backlog of cases including considering the cases against leaders, who may be convicted in absentia, and the government can keep on doing its job of developing the country.
A PAD strategy?
Stillwater,
firstly thanks very much for your nice comments
I think the main point here is that while everyone carries on about vote buying, its the policies, such as decentralisation of contracts and work into a region that is probably much more important in determining votes…..
so, a party that has attractive policies can leave the vote buyers in their dust…. and I think thats what has happened in Thailand…. the PAD and the traditional power brokers are just slow learners and dont know how to live in the new Thailand…
maybe the traditional politicians actually spent more money that the TRT and PPP but still lost! no wonder they are upset
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
David Brown, it’s only my analysis and maybe totally inaccurate – especially in times like these. I see it this way – PMSamak has everything to lose (the premiership and, most critically, his face, his saksee – “the world is watching” he recently said). MajGenChamlong, on the other hand, has nothing to lose… Both are rather well known for their inflexibility. That’s why I think, when push comes to shove, it’s down to these two men…
It’s good to be back for this Nganadeeleg. Maybe Teth is finishing up his thesis or something?
Report on last night’s clash
Nick: I think you’re panicking that PAD is bringing down the country. I think PAD is more Principled, than Thaksin, PPP, Samak, Government combined. That’s my personal feel.
PAD tactics intentionally would be that South Korea used once successfully , where to get their Government to resign, everyone – white collar, blue collar etc. stopped work. The government resigned after a few days, and that was it. Its a psychological game that can bring the country down, but PAD betting Samak won’t go that far; However, as the Unstatesman Samak won’t back down you can see that PAD has backed down in turning off the water and internet gateways etc. So, not as much chaos as you think, Nick?
Taxin has not organized the Government House siege, that was PAD,…
Who started it? In my view it clearly was Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD. This led to a military coup, and from there only one escalation after the other, mostly driven by PAD, followed by crude and inefficient tactics by a government clearly overwhelmed by this.
But PAD is out to destroy the whole system, and replace it with something the vast majority of Thais will never accept.
I should rewind way back to early 1990s when Mr. Toxin was foreign minister. My sister was working in a project there and word was, he was doing business deals during this Official Trips. While he wasn’t known then, and that isn’t death-sentence violation, but it is not hard for him, with his brilliant mind, corrupt way of business, to advance in his career path to the Monster he is currently now.
FYI, Mr. Toxin preceded PAD, as A comes before B,C,D,E and F In the matter of fact, PAD came up as a response to Toxin’s Mischievous Deeds, so if you can’t see who began this this is another reason we’d better agree to disagree.
SCENARIO: Lets just say, without PAD, this Government that you don’t like will continue its Bulldozing Monstrousity UnOpposed, and while you’ll have a good time getting to talk and having pleasant interviews, enjoying the peace with your expatriate salary, good fitness clubs, Thai smiles, etc, the people suffering are the Thais — and NOT middle class and upper class Thais like me who can afford to stay apathetic if we want, but the Poorer Thais who belive their PPP goverment is doing some Sustainable Policies of Giving Out Money for them to buy Mobile Phones and Motorbikes and Pickup Trucks (Read: 3 year shelf life), happy enough to be poorer and poorer, while the government Sells off Their Country and rake in Ugly Money. The Thai Government will spend the money on building some budget Expensive Parliament (50% goes to who?), while spending much lesser to keep the People Dumbed Down.
And don’t think all people who currently suppport PAD support the 70-30 government Sonthi is proposing either.
OTHERS
I have found the PAD rather hostile to every attempt of journalism, their leaders are not willing to engage in talks…i know that many other journalists, Thai and foreign, have exactly the same view
IMHO: Nothing wrong with you Nick, but the reason why PAD probably suspects foreign media is the same reason why you and probably most Western-Ideal-Democracy persons blanket impose on the situation that is unique as in Thailand [this thread covered in my above discussion and elsewhere in NM], and present it ugly. So quite normal if they are belligerent, knowing you might blindly impose Western Standards, like Filling up a Car with Benzine Engine with Diesel Fuel.
Both sides use rented buses.
IMHO: PAD Buses come from PAD provinces throughout Thailand, who join the protest. NPK buses, come to carry out the commando missions to beat down pad (buses paid by the day I suspect)
Payment for services is done on both sides, maybe more on the side of the reds…. From my personal talks feel that yellow is several steps more fanatic though, and far less open to any criticism, and far more hostile to contrarian views.
IMHO: Reference to PAD’s suspicion to you Nick (Journalists) [hey -listen, when In the Government House I was suspected on being a spy as well but I cleared myself; They are very attentive for spies and from you here, journalists]; Also, it is so expected that the “Reds” (who many are tricked into coming to Bkk, or bought) should be “agreeable people” because they don’t want to Change the government (aside many being clueless), whereas “Yellows” (who are quite tired from attending the Marathon 100+ days dispute, having to break laws, having to fend themselves against “Red Hitmen” when outside the PAD areas) are quite knowledgable about what they want already, and are there to Change the government! So its quite so easy to predict that Nick.
Most reds are from Isaarn and the North. In those villages alcohol is a culture
Many yellow fighters are high on Bai Kratom
IMHO: Alchohol is like “Free Beer on the House” in Western Pubs, and designed to be an incentive to bring in the crowds (“Guys! Come to Bangkok! You get 500-1000THB, and guess what — FREE ALCOHOL! Hooray!”); I’m not sure about the Kratom, but know from another PAD that it gives a drug effect of “happiness” but non-narcotic, popular in the south.
Despite all our differences, perhaps what we can agree are these future scenarios:
CASE 1) NO PAD:If you want PAD to disperse and use the Normal Corrupt PPP + their willingness to do Corrupt ways to win, then we may be seeing this government for 4 years, Constitution is Patched by Majority Governemnt, Thaksin probably coming back on the 3rd year. I’m not sure you’ll be happy with this, but alot of Western People will probably be Proud that Thailand is a Western Democratic Country, but Thailand in deep s**t. [Just look at PPP party. Look at Samak. Look at Chalerm. Look at Jakrapob. Look at their “Unsustainable Policies”. Look what they can do at the expense of common good]
CASE 2) PAD LIMITED: PAD disperses, but pressure the government to let the Courts cleanly continue to pursue and * somehow * prevent the Government from Changing the Constitution, which is Highly Unlikely, then we may *just* get by with PPP dissolution, and Thaksin still in “Exile”. This option still allows PPP to return, and Thaksin find a comeback, without any solidarity movement to uproot Thaksinism. I’m quite sure you’ll be happy this, Western People still Proud that Thailand is Western Democratic Country, but Thailand problems (PPP+Thaksinism) aren’t solved.
CASE 3) PAD ACTIVE: PAD continues to prevent government from clowning around to save Toxins A**, prevent change of constitution. PAD backs down when the Solitary Samak “doesn’t care country going to chaos, I want my seat”. PAD ensures PPP, Thaksin prosecuted -THE ROOT CAUSE OF 10+ YEARS OF PAIN. PAD then either does the (70:30 -which I’m personally not in favor nor I think the Democrats will accept ) OR Educates the North+NorthEast before the elections and we get a cleaner government, where possibly Democrats get over 50% of the majority. With PAD as Watchdog, we should have a much cleaner government.
Which one will you — or anyone of us–choose , or do you have other opinions about future scenarios that should work (Please label them Case 4, Case 5, etc.)? Or are you simply packing? (ref your “Don’t underestimate the seriousness of the situation.“)
Report on last night’s clash
Nick: I accept the government has had many forces fighting against it, but I still cannot help thinking that they have brought much of the current turmoil upon themselves.
(Just like Thaksin would probably still be in power if he chose to pay proper & fair taxes)
I said months ago what PPP should have done was put their proposed draft constitution to parliamentry debate, and then put the final draft to a public referendum.
If PPP had done that, the PAD would not have a leg to stand on, and even if they had staged this audacious protest, Samak would have been able to justify nipping it in the bud.
On reflection, I think PPP have been so hamstrung because deep down they know they have not been doing the right thing, and therefore could not justify decisive action to quell the protest.
I still do not think it is too late to start doing things right!
(hint, hint to any PPP power brokers who may be reading this 🙂 )
No doubt the PAD would not be satisfied (they never are), but if PPP had developed and explained a more consultative process, publicised what they have done to accommodate genuine concerns, get court approval for removal of the protesters, announce a final deadline with warning to disperse for your own safety etc, then they would have been well justified (in fact compelled as a good/competent government) to go ahead with the dispersal in a compassionate way
The 6 months delay EC referendum dealay is not really that bad – all PPP has to do is agree now that they will consult regarding the constitutional amendments and propose a new ‘peoples’ constitution – sounds good and keeps everyone happy, whilst they will still probably get what they want in the end anyway!
Referendums can take place later, but they would have done enough to diffuse the standoff, and force the PAD to go home.
PS. Sorry to regurgitate parts of what I have already written over at Bangkok Pundits site, but I have not had time to start again or put it up on my ‘blog’ page.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
I think referendum is the best solution.
Let’s the whole country speak out. One man, one vote.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
Osborne: “… the army is showing little inclination to enforce the state of emergency the prime minister has sought to impose”
amberwaves: “what evidence is there that Samak and Anupong are not on the same page”
IMHO Amberwaves is right and Osborne is not.
Samak and the military have been working together in many ways, enforcement of lese majeste, no violence against PAD for the military, no coup for Samak. Samak now occupies the Supreme Commander’s office after his office was taken over by PAD.
Osborne: “Tej’s departure has all the elements of a signal that the king wants a rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand”.
Doesn’t everyone want a “rapid end to the uncertainty that grips Thailand” ?
Remember Anand’s comments on royal intervention: “His Majesty has been through 16 constitutions, 18 coups d’etat and 24 prime ministers. He has an acute grasp of constitutional rule, yet he remains detached from politics, playing a non-partisan role in the country’s political process and development.” (Bangkok Post Article August 24, 2007, SPEECH BY ANAND PANYARACHUN, The monarchy: an indispensable institution)
Is a non-partisan role really possible now? Whatever intervention the king makes, one party will lose. Where is Suchinda nowadays?
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
Wouldn’t it be nice if the King thought, “I want to take the 2 mai ow position but my wife won’t let me”? 😉
Examining the “success” of a northern Thai Royal Project
dear sai latt!
i spent several weeks with sgaw karen villagers in chiang mai province earlier this year (also conducting research for my MA thesis, although not specifically on the royal projects)…
the supposed “success” of the royal projects could not be confirmed by the villagers i encountered either… indeed, most of them were also facing increasing debt… furthermore, the projects’ introduction of chemical fertilizers has endangered their clean drinking water supply…
thus, the villagers i encountered overwhelmingly felt that the royal projects (coupled with the outlawing of the practice of rotational swidden agriculture on which they have traditionally relied) had not improved their lives, but had made their situation more precarious…
i therefore agree wholeheartedly with your assessment that measuring the success of these projects in monetary terms alone leads to a highly distorted picture… i also agree that the paternalistic attitude of the thai authorities leads to a lack of consideration for the needs and wishes of the people on the ground…
would there be any chance i could get a copy of your thesis?
many thanks and all the best
david
A PAD strategy?
I appreciate the thought put into David Brown’s reply. You can skim over the past Yongyuth case to see if it supports your ideas or not:
http://www.thailandqa.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19106 (thread copied from BKKpost)
I don’t know about pre-election polling in very rural far flung places. I’ve never read of pre-election poll stats taken in those areas although I assume if one were to research this someone has to simply ask the local abbot at the temple who he thinks his lay followers would choosel.
Just wanted to add to your list: non-cash vote buying. I found it fascinating that very very cheap gifts can be handed out sort of like tickets to claim a cash amount later on after the elections are done with and the box removed. Then how is one to appraise the gift/item and at the same time find where they claim the cash?
I know that sounds weird but coming up with an average amount to buy one vote is hard because there is local skimming by village elders so you can imagine if the village elder gets a budget to sway the vote he may end up keeping a good portion. If a villager decides to provide info on the amount he received—how is an investigator supposed to determine the original large sum given to the village headman?
It’s certainly hard to get hard numbers on “vote buying”.
The issue is vote buying may be too specific a term.
Vote swaying is more like it. You don’t have to hand out cash as people walk away from the box. In fact cash may be too obvious. Vote buyins has evolved and become very sophisticated. Take into account that at the local level, strongmen have jobs and angle for contracts.
You don’t transfer money into an account. That’s so passe! You give contract jobs in construction or other form of employment. Keep the contract coming, keep the villagers, who are your employees working. That’s the sad part. Some people need it to survive.
All is well.
Oh dear, I just convinced myself vote buying is okay and if I can’t find cashed check stubs or money transfer records it doesn’t exist on a very large scale.
One other element in vote swaying (not unique to Thailand) is Thaksin and “Buddhism”.
Thaksin have tapped into the Dhammakaya elite. What Dhammakaya is in Pathum Thani (well their main complex but they have 2?branches in the USA).
Do you think that Dhammakaya’s several thousand strong supporters if swayed by their abbot, Dhammachayo, to vote for the PPP or its future incarnations has any influence? Thaksin made $$$ donations to the temple.
Yes ofcourse this happens in the USA too where the GOP’s strategy has always been to use the church to do their promo.
I go for voting by all the Thai people every time instead of the corrupt few raping the country as usual
I think the PPP elite count for more than a “few”. You forgot to count Thaksin’s overseas associates who are also in on the game.
I’d like to see more voter education. Have you all noticed the LACK of voter reading material distributed in the rural areas? That’s another key issue—education. Elections are decided in rural karaoke bars, temples, factories and everything is done VERBALLY.
If our average voter wanted to study the facts–he or she has very little to study (other than the roadside billboard). If flyers are made how many are actually distributed?
David have you heard about Samak’s national referendum idea?
It should work out well since Thaksin sold Man-City shares (or the whole team I can’t recall at all). If Thaksin’s bank account is happy, he wins again. Just watch.
Australia and the current Thai crisis
I don’t think the book exists, I think it’s a hoax perpetrated by Nicolaides as a publicity stunt. Very much as he did to his students once:
http://www.phuket-info.com/harry/031209-travel11.htm
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
“However his and KV’s statements about vote-buying reproduce the PAD line that most academic research shows is, at best, dated. See the link on Chang Noi’s recent piece.”
Chang Noi’s piece essentially says that rural electorate has come to realise that it does have power.
Whether that power is being used in a wise manner or not, for long-term investment rather than short-term consumption has not been answered adequately at all as far as I can see.
I have yet to see a detailed study that shows how village fund money is being used effectively. I would bet that villagers have no clear idea themselves how it is being used.
Dumping money in villages irrespective of how it is used is going to have a positive Keynesian multiplier effect.
Handouts and subsidies are not investment. Some Subsidies such as the LPG subsidy have resulted in seriously distorted incentives and behaviour.
Report on last night’s clash
“nganadeeleg”
Because very few foreign journalists have spent much time with the UDD before and after the elections, i naturally had to not just take photos ( unpaid, unsold and unpublished at the time, fortunately this has changed now) but also into the political background.
My personal impression is that the PAD is far more advanced in strategy and tactics, including media spin. The UDD and the government are amateurish against them, and therefore always appear as initiators of violence, crude and primitive. Which they aren’t.
The PAD is masters in cornering the government. Don’t underestimate this. A while ago i was made aware that for at least three months the PAD has built a nationwide underground network, command structure, and as it appears now – fighting troops as well, with heavy involvement of pro-PAD military factions of both retired and active officers.
That, in retrospect, could also shine a somewhat different light on the ugly Udon incident.
The Democrat involvement was rumored for a long time, for me it became absolutely clear how high it is was when Abhisit (and the 30 senators) came to the rescue of the nearly defeated PAD at the day when police nearly managed to clear the streets around Government House (with minimal violence and valid court orders!). This was active collaboration, to give the PAD inside Government House time to restructure, and chase police away from the streets. I would very much like to see both Abhisit and the 30 Senators being charged for this.
This went way beyond their confines as parliamentarians and senators, to disrupt a court ordered ongoing action by the police.
Regardless if one likes the Government, or not (and i do not like it) – what the PAD and their backers do has to be defined as an attempted revolution. Their political aims – 30:70 is an attempted overthrow of the constitution and democracy with unconstitutional methods, such as the completely unprecedented ongoing illegal occupation of Government House, the attack on NBT, the closure of several airports, threads and attempts to disrupt vital functions of country and legally elected government. There simply is no law that would permit these actions.
For now it appears that the government has bought itself some much needed time, but expect a worsening of the situation soon. Because it is obvious that the PAD will not give up before they have achieved their aims, or lost.
Interview with Burma’s Ma Thanegi
Jeff
You can see from Yeyint’s comments the problems you are up against. His underlying assumption is that if you disagree with sanctions against Myanmar, you might well be in the pay of the generals. It is a good stick to beat anyone who is against sanctions. Frankly, I have never come across a single scholar or foreign journalist who is pro-junta, not a single one. But Yeyint clearly sees it important to perpetuate the myth of apologists and collaborators. It is the mentality of : “You are either with us or against us”. You are either pro-sanctions and anti-regime, or anti-sanctions and pro-regime.
He is right on one point, though, which is that the generals have in the past used lobbying firms in the US – nowhere else – to seek support for their policies. This would not be the first time that governments have done so.
Derek