Dear Jeff
Like Yeyint , I am glad to hear that you have chosen my country as your subject. As you ,quite rightly said,Myanmar is really an emotive and complicated subject. Unless you can see its problems objectively you are unlikely to get the correct answer. We are emotional people and emotion blinds us from seeing reality. If you want an unbiased view you should visit networkmyanmar website. I find Derek Tonkin has good insight on Myanmar and he’s totally unbiased. Moreover his predictions about my country’s political future usually comes true! I was born in colonial days , therefore,have seen different governments in my country and for the past 13 years I have regularly visited towns as well as villages even remote areas of the country. I have met and talked to people from different walks of life, therefore I have first hand knowledge of real Myanmar. And I am totally politically neutral in the sense that I don’t really care who rule my country either Ma Suu or U Than Shwe or whoever so long as there is peace,stability and some degree of freedom and fairness to all ethnic groups including minorities. This is what I found from the majority of Myanmars , 70 percent of them, who live in villages.It is fair to say that many of the things you hear or read from anti-government groups are true but what is lacking is acknowledgement of the improvements made by this government.This made the generals very crossed. If you read articles in networkmyanmar you will find many things which we took it for granted”because they are in the news”are not actually true. I am a Myanmar citizen. I was born as a Bamar and Myanmar citizen will die as a Myanmar citizen as well. I am a true practising Buddhist and I don’t need money, fame or position. When I go back home I will give free medical treatment to the poor, continue my charity work to help my country and practice meditation and prepare for next journey in Samsara. If the opportunity arise I will quietly tell the decision makers about the good and bad points of the western democracy. More importantly I will tell our young generation that they can built Shangri-la in our own country, not only in the west. Lastly I want to say that I really feel sorry for Ma Suu ( ASSK ). Even when she was in Myanmar she was brought up and overprotected for good reason. Then she left the country as a child, fell in love with Michael and married him. Before the marriage some Myanmar elders warned her about the marriage pointing out the position of her father but she totally cut off any contact with them . I came to London in 1976 and have been socially active among the Myanmar community ever since. She has never mixed with the Myanmars and I have never seen Ma Su except for a short glimpse in 1979 at Oaken Holt near Oxford when she came to meet the Mahasi Sayadaw. Therefore She has no real experience of dealing with Myanmars until she went to look after her mother in 1988. When the young man, who worked in the inner circle of Ma Suu, told me ” aunty Su will never understand our ( Myanmar’s) mentality even if she lives another 50 years in Myanmar. He’s a political exile in London. There’s no doubt she is a very nice lady with genuine goodwill for the country. But , being ignorant of the myanmar culture she went head- on collision with the generals leading to this personal tragedy and the tragedy of hundreds and thousands of young lives. She has failed as a wife, as a mother and and also failed 52 million Myanmars as a leader.That is the uncomfortable reality . As a human being it is a disaster not only for herself but also for many young and old Myanmars who rise up against the generals thinking that ” Daw Aung San Suu Kyi” will lead them to democracy. Many of the young people lost their lives because of her and many older ones lost their livelihood while world keeps on showering her with awards after awards. Now we have the constitution and election will follow in 2010. The chance of Ma Suu ruling Myanmar is from negligible to nil. I have supported Ma Suu since 1988 but as an environmentalist and Myanmar citizen I totally disagree with her boycott of the tourism and boycott of the trade as well. If she didn’t pull out of the national convention we should have had the same or better constitution much earlier and business and tourism would have been much better. What is the point of putting us through this hardship to come to the same conclusion? We all like democracy but imagine if Blair/Gordon or Bush did the same thing as Ma Suu did to us do you think people will still support them? Absolutely not ! You are more than welcome to contact me by email in person. I live in London and you can pop in any time in weekends, just let me know in advance.
best wishes
Dr Win Maung
“…to solve the ongoing political chaos, Samak government agreed on Thursday to conduct public referendum…with three simple questions which the voters could answer by yes or no…2. Should the PAD continue or end its protests?”
Do they honestly believe this will end the protests? I would wager that they will get 100% of the vote because the other side will boycott the referendum. What does “in denial” mean? It means you have a problem that you cannot bring yourself to acknowledge and thus continue the same dysfunctional behaviour over and over again without end and, guess what, the problem never ends.
The demographically dominant yet relatively poor north and northeast swing vote, with feelings of inferiority galore, wishing to seize control of the purse strings of the country, and go on a rural shopping spree, buy mobile phones and make a down payment on a pick up truck, will once again vote to “stick it to the man.” We already know that. The idea is ridiculous.
I worked in AP on a Tea Estate for some time.
The locals are obnoxious after their evening tipple.The inner line permit is full of crap as the gate guys find it an easy way to feather their nests.
However the elders are very loving and caring.
now there’s real leadership! This is like all of the legislatures in the US who are too afraid to actually make a decision so they put everything up for a referendum.
I saw a throw away line in the comments… “Personally, I do not think an election that was bought provides anyone with an “election mandate”.
this is a line pushed by the PAD… and I think it can be refuted
sure there was some money thrown around… a friend of mine suggested maybe 100MBaht, I just saw an interview with Somsak, one of the PAD leaders who said 30MBaht… also someone on a forum said votes go for about 400Baht (in esaan, note the regional sneer)
I dont know whether any particular numbers can be verified, but one can do some numbers and say someone paid 250,000 people to change their votes…. there are about 40M voters in Thailand and the winning margin overall was in the millions
and someone suggested that the Thai rural people are smart enough to take the money and, in a secret ballot, vote for who they really want
so, enough of this crap about buying elections
I think in the old days before lots of TV, radio and internet) the bangkok elite controlled everything (loudspeakers in the streets every morning in every village, control of the provincial and village officials…) so they cant realise that those days have now gone
four democratic free and fair elections won because the party politics promised and then delivered real benefits for Thai people, especially around the country….
I just think the PAD and their backers and the opposition democrat party are slow learners
I think if you keep writing about H.M. The King and excerpting The Book That Shall Not Be Named you’re gonna get New Mandala blocked and blacklisted in Thailand and lose a big local audience.
“One key leader from a coalition party has even suggested that the way Gen Anupong is refusing to exercise his power under the emergency decree to send in the troops against PAD demonstrators is a kind of silent putsch.” http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_News/04Sep2008_news08.php
Partisan? me? Pots and kettles I think. You might recall that I tried (see above). Anyway, I wasn’t criticising you, just drawing you back to your use of the term and the original point.
amberwaves: I’m not at all sure what you refer to. I was commenting on Chai-Anan opposing the idea of functional groups in a constitutional drafting committee and his point that such an arrangement, that did not allow people to vote, amounted to fascism. If you are refering to the idea that Chai-Anan was then opposing, then your references to 1983 and Suchit are way past the beginning date of this idea. There were appointed members of parliament from virtually the beginning and the great propagator of so-called Thai-style democracy was Kukrit Pramoj in the early 1960s when he supported Sarit’s authoritarianism. Actually Kukrit used the term “Thai-style government” then because he thought “Western-style democracy” simply didn’t fit Thailand. In this sense, PAD leaders and their hopelessly named “new politics” trace a legacy at least back to the military authoritarianism of the late 1950s.
I am wondering if the bloggers who state so-called facts (e.g. sumeth) can link their claims to actual evidence that is at least subject to a modicum of checking. Is there much point to wild accusations? We have enough of these from PAD leaders.
I believe you completely misinterpret the situation. Taxin has not organized the Government House siege, that was PAD, and that has escalated the situation beyond the tolerable. In no country of the world this would have been tolerated.
What we are in now is clearly a long planned and well executed revolution supported by military factions, and whose leaders have a proven distrust of anything resembling democracy. The country is collapsing, and the way i see things developing – that has been part of the strategy.
Why could possibly one scream “Gu Chart” and at the same time disable with incredible accuracy every single thing that makes a Nation work, and not even try the constitutional avenues that this system allows, by a constitution they themselves helped writing, and not the government?
Working as a journalist is more than hazardous under those conditions, especially the constant threats of PAD “Naclop Srivichai”. I am not talking about getting in the line of fire – i knew that this might happen.
I have found the PAD rather hostile to every attempt of journalism, their leaders are not willing to engage in talks, they are only mouthing propaganda, most of it lies, such as the constant warnings of imminent attacks by UDD, and much similar. As a journalist i feel not safe in the PAD camp, and i know that many other journalists, Thai and foreign, have exactly the same view. We do discuss that often.
Yet, i have never been threatened by UDD. I have been able to hold talks with most of their leaders. I was able to ask critical questions.
I am never asked there to report from their side, as i always get by PAD.
About the quality of the present government we may not disagree much. I also do not particularly like this government. But PAD is out to destroy the whole system, and replace it with something the vast majority of Thais will never accept.
Who started it? In my view it clearly was Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD. This led to a military coup, and from there only one escalation after the other, mostly driven by PAD, followed by crude and inefficient tactics by a government clearly overwhelmed by this.
PAD feels attacked because it marched to Government House? Police has attempted to clear this completely illegal occupation, was nearly successful, used minimum amounts of violence (I was there), with court orders, until 30 Senators and Abhisit clearly in cohorts with PAD have subverted the course of the law, and sent this situation into a debacle.
PAD threats of cutting of electricity and water only added to the Chaos.
Because that is the only logical explanation i can see for PAD activities – creating maximum amount of Chaos.
You just wait and see how you will like the “New Thailand” that may arise out of this insanity. I already know that it really scares the Shit out of me.
Personally, I am glad HMK has chosen to stay out of this. Even if current events seem to say otherwise, I trust Thai society has finally come of age to resolve this without HMK’s intervention – and it is certainly about time (ever optimistic as usual, I am stating this more out of hope than confidence).
This is conflict amongst the arrogant Bangkok and urban-based elites (lovely ideal, “Rural Constitution” – but the products leave much to be desired – a series of urban-based capitalist mafias through the decades) – each with very clear visions and agenda on how they’d like Thailand to be run. The key players who will either resolve this or make matters worse are PMSamak, PMThaksin, various factions of the PPP, Sonthi, Chamlong and the PAD, Gen Anupong – products of the Rural Constitution; Middle-class anger/arrogance/impatience; and the military respectively.
The military has interestingly decided that this is a “political issue” and will not intervene either way (break up PAD or stage another coup). As, in this situation, they are still the most powerful group, that can be seen as progress in itself (especially in the context of past history/practices). Gen Anupong has clearly defined and limited the army’s role to keeping the PAD and UDD apart… Clearly in the cooler-head Thai Phuyai mold, he has consistently maintained his neutrality. (How a decision made a over a year ago, by other cool-head Thai Phuyais, made the difference! IF PAD’s choice, GenSaprang held the reigns, Thailand would already be operating in the undemocratic 70:30 mode!!)
So it is more or less up to two parties. PAD will not bulge until PMSamak steps down. PMSamak will not bulge until PAD leaves.
In many ways I feel sorry for PMSamak. All he wants, and very badly, is his four years in office and to retire gracefully – unfortunately he signed a pact with the devil and repayment is due with high interests. He fooled PMThaksin, who picked him as his nominee for his take-no-prisoner divisive style – thinking PMSamak will quickly pass constitution amendments and dissolve parliament to pave way for his return, by popular demand ofcourse, to power. Having shook off PMThaksin and, yet, maintaining PMThaksin’s tacit support (a civil war almost broke out in PPP when PMThaksin’s and KYPotjaman’s arrest warrant was issued countrywide after they fleed), he now faces PAD, hell-bent on bringing him down. PMThaksin through FMNoppadol essentially fed PAD the ammunition to bring PMSamak down (all PMSamak’s cabinet had to do with KhaoPhraVihear was to heed advice from the responsible agencies, seek a co-application with Cambodia for WH listing – or at least put the question to the parliament and the public first! Now PPPwants a referendum – only when it suits!).
He is essentially already a lame-duck PM with little support base in the party (how many cabinet ministers did he actually picked?). The police are ineffectual and the military are playing referee. The only thing keeping him in power is essentially his house dissolution card. No MPs want an election now (despite Aphisit’s call for dissolution as a temporal solution), especially without PMThaksin’s funding and the mega-projects not starting yet (gotta have their 15-25% cut first to line their pockets and fund the election). A refendum, ofcourse, would be cheaper than an all out general election…
Without the house dissolution card, I suspect PMSamak would have already been replaced as PM. I read in BangkokPost yesterday TycoonSonthi saying that he might be willing to talk if Suebpong Suebwonglee or Somchai Wongsawat is PM in Samak’s place (although stating that his views does not represent all the PAD’s leadership). If true, then a resolution is in the offing (over PMSamak’s dead body it seems!).
And I think this is consistent with the message (at least my interpretation of it) from the palace and the military is for the Bangkok and urban-based elites to sit, talk and resolve this amongst themselves like responsible PhuYais. Thais have been disappointed many times before and used to it, but it should be the least we can expect in this day and age.
My analysis of the PAD leadership is that most are actually willing to compromise. I am not sure of MajGenChamlong – who many seem to give too little credit (who, with his military background, is behind PAD’s strategies and disciplined defences). I dare say we owe both the 1997 Constitution and PMThaksin to his uncompromising stances that led to the bloodshed in 1992. Oh, don’t forget he also bought PMThaksin into politics – and now we have a historical case study of the mentor trying to kill off his best student for good! I really wonder what is in his head right now???
Sumet: A demon’s thought: maybe no need to change the electoral system, but just beat the PPP Devils in their own game:
1. Lowest Cost – Make it Mandatory for the Electoral to Swear during the Ballot Box that “To the Holy Beings That I Worship, that I Shall Not Vote for the Party that Buys Votes. If I do, I impose myself for a lifetime of Damnedness”. The uneducated gullibles are very afraid to “Animism, Hinduism, and Spritualism” anyway, and should comply -especially if they believe in “Sa-ban” (Swearing), the same type they swear to when they receive vote buying money. We should now prevent vote buying by up to 50% I believe.
2. Higher Cost – As alot of PAD do sponsor poor people to education, they can: Sponsor 1 Vote per person to prevent vote buying;
A. Pay 500THB per head for people to come to read & understand PAD information why Thaksin is not an option — nothing about vote buying. Pay an extra 500THB if they come a Certified Instructor.
B. Pay 500THB per head, to Vote anyone except PPP or its other virulent strains. Any lawyer can confirm to me that this is legal, to pay someone not to vote for anyone except a party?
3. High Cost – Get the Government to pay 500THB as a bonus for everyone to show up during elections and Vote. This may make people compelled to vote — at least they get something by voting, but still susceptible for “Rakers” who get both Government and PPP money.
Each interesting ways can be done alone, or in combination.
For Democratic Purists, you’d probably want to just not read this Devil’s Advocate/ BatMan Tactics; As per Sumet’s comments, I am just thinking out loud to how to “Least Adjust the Electoral System while putting in a few mechanisms to get the Uneducated Gullibles to Vote without being Bought by the Dark Side Thaksin”.
I personally believe my #1 is a Low-Cost, High Effectiveness Winner, without the need of expensive costs, and hope someone can put it into the Election Laws.
Glad to know that you are interested in Burma’s crisis. Just want to remind you that try to explore all the sources as much as you can. There are both pro-junta and anti-junta media you could find different views and bias. And watch out some people who voice for junta as the Burmese junta usually hires advocacy firms and individuals e.g. some scholars and journalists for counter-arguing the issues like ‘sanctions’. The junta is good in bribing and buying international megaphones for justifying their brutality.
Facebook 
Twitter 
Soundcloud 
Youtube 
Rss
Interview with Burma’s Ma Thanegi
Dear Jeff
Like Yeyint , I am glad to hear that you have chosen my country as your subject. As you ,quite rightly said,Myanmar is really an emotive and complicated subject. Unless you can see its problems objectively you are unlikely to get the correct answer. We are emotional people and emotion blinds us from seeing reality. If you want an unbiased view you should visit networkmyanmar website. I find Derek Tonkin has good insight on Myanmar and he’s totally unbiased. Moreover his predictions about my country’s political future usually comes true! I was born in colonial days , therefore,have seen different governments in my country and for the past 13 years I have regularly visited towns as well as villages even remote areas of the country. I have met and talked to people from different walks of life, therefore I have first hand knowledge of real Myanmar. And I am totally politically neutral in the sense that I don’t really care who rule my country either Ma Suu or U Than Shwe or whoever so long as there is peace,stability and some degree of freedom and fairness to all ethnic groups including minorities. This is what I found from the majority of Myanmars , 70 percent of them, who live in villages.It is fair to say that many of the things you hear or read from anti-government groups are true but what is lacking is acknowledgement of the improvements made by this government.This made the generals very crossed. If you read articles in networkmyanmar you will find many things which we took it for granted”because they are in the news”are not actually true. I am a Myanmar citizen. I was born as a Bamar and Myanmar citizen will die as a Myanmar citizen as well. I am a true practising Buddhist and I don’t need money, fame or position. When I go back home I will give free medical treatment to the poor, continue my charity work to help my country and practice meditation and prepare for next journey in Samsara. If the opportunity arise I will quietly tell the decision makers about the good and bad points of the western democracy. More importantly I will tell our young generation that they can built Shangri-la in our own country, not only in the west. Lastly I want to say that I really feel sorry for Ma Suu ( ASSK ). Even when she was in Myanmar she was brought up and overprotected for good reason. Then she left the country as a child, fell in love with Michael and married him. Before the marriage some Myanmar elders warned her about the marriage pointing out the position of her father but she totally cut off any contact with them . I came to London in 1976 and have been socially active among the Myanmar community ever since. She has never mixed with the Myanmars and I have never seen Ma Su except for a short glimpse in 1979 at Oaken Holt near Oxford when she came to meet the Mahasi Sayadaw. Therefore She has no real experience of dealing with Myanmars until she went to look after her mother in 1988. When the young man, who worked in the inner circle of Ma Suu, told me ” aunty Su will never understand our ( Myanmar’s) mentality even if she lives another 50 years in Myanmar. He’s a political exile in London. There’s no doubt she is a very nice lady with genuine goodwill for the country. But , being ignorant of the myanmar culture she went head- on collision with the generals leading to this personal tragedy and the tragedy of hundreds and thousands of young lives. She has failed as a wife, as a mother and and also failed 52 million Myanmars as a leader.That is the uncomfortable reality . As a human being it is a disaster not only for herself but also for many young and old Myanmars who rise up against the generals thinking that ” Daw Aung San Suu Kyi” will lead them to democracy. Many of the young people lost their lives because of her and many older ones lost their livelihood while world keeps on showering her with awards after awards. Now we have the constitution and election will follow in 2010. The chance of Ma Suu ruling Myanmar is from negligible to nil. I have supported Ma Suu since 1988 but as an environmentalist and Myanmar citizen I totally disagree with her boycott of the tourism and boycott of the trade as well. If she didn’t pull out of the national convention we should have had the same or better constitution much earlier and business and tourism would have been much better. What is the point of putting us through this hardship to come to the same conclusion? We all like democracy but imagine if Blair/Gordon or Bush did the same thing as Ma Suu did to us do you think people will still support them? Absolutely not ! You are more than welcome to contact me by email in person. I live in London and you can pop in any time in weekends, just let me know in advance.
best wishes
Dr Win Maung
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
Ouch, that is so much going to fail! Give me B. Give me U. Give me Y. VOTE BUYING! Do I hear the crowds cheering? Yes I do! Vote buying! 😉
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
“…to solve the ongoing political chaos, Samak government agreed on Thursday to conduct public referendum…with three simple questions which the voters could answer by yes or no…2. Should the PAD continue or end its protests?”
Do they honestly believe this will end the protests? I would wager that they will get 100% of the vote because the other side will boycott the referendum. What does “in denial” mean? It means you have a problem that you cannot bring yourself to acknowledge and thus continue the same dysfunctional behaviour over and over again without end and, guess what, the problem never ends.
The demographically dominant yet relatively poor north and northeast swing vote, with feelings of inferiority galore, wishing to seize control of the purse strings of the country, and go on a rural shopping spree, buy mobile phones and make a down payment on a pick up truck, will once again vote to “stick it to the man.” We already know that. The idea is ridiculous.
“Arunachal Pradesh…exotically yours”
I worked in AP on a Tea Estate for some time.
The locals are obnoxious after their evening tipple.The inner line permit is full of crap as the gate guys find it an easy way to feather their nests.
However the elders are very loving and caring.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
now there’s real leadership! This is like all of the legislatures in the US who are too afraid to actually make a decision so they put everything up for a referendum.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
Enough ? Apparently not.
Samak was granted an audience last week. And he came back… quite confident.
My point : if the King had really enough… Samak would be out. Already.
Or… we can assume the opposite… the King had enough of the PAD. In this case…
😉
Anyway, enough speculating.
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
Your title reminds me headlines from NotTheNation.
http://www.notthenation.com
😉
Well done.
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
Sidh….
I suggest you check wikipaedia for Sondhi L…
then tell me he is a man willing to compromise
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
I saw a throw away line in the comments… “Personally, I do not think an election that was bought provides anyone with an “election mandate”.
this is a line pushed by the PAD… and I think it can be refuted
sure there was some money thrown around… a friend of mine suggested maybe 100MBaht, I just saw an interview with Somsak, one of the PAD leaders who said 30MBaht… also someone on a forum said votes go for about 400Baht (in esaan, note the regional sneer)
I dont know whether any particular numbers can be verified, but one can do some numbers and say someone paid 250,000 people to change their votes…. there are about 40M voters in Thailand and the winning margin overall was in the millions
and someone suggested that the Thai rural people are smart enough to take the money and, in a secret ballot, vote for who they really want
so, enough of this crap about buying elections
I think in the old days before lots of TV, radio and internet) the bangkok elite controlled everything (loudspeakers in the streets every morning in every village, control of the provincial and village officials…) so they cant realise that those days have now gone
four democratic free and fair elections won because the party politics promised and then delivered real benefits for Thai people, especially around the country….
I just think the PAD and their backers and the opposition democrat party are slow learners
Samak brutally represses PAD by proposing that the people decide (again)!
hmmmm. are you going for the most provocative (and misleading) or … satirical headline?
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
I think…..
I think if you keep writing about H.M. The King and excerpting The Book That Shall Not Be Named you’re gonna get New Mandala blocked and blacklisted in Thailand and lose a big local audience.
“Has the Thai king had enough?”
amberwaves, the BP writes:
“One key leader from a coalition party has even suggested that the way Gen Anupong is refusing to exercise his power under the emergency decree to send in the troops against PAD demonstrators is a kind of silent putsch.”
http://www.bangkokpost.com/040908_News/04Sep2008_news08.php
An extract from Handley’s TKNS
And I forgot to ask: is suggesting a referendum an attempt to compromise?
An extract from Handley’s TKNS
Partisan? me? Pots and kettles I think. You might recall that I tried (see above). Anyway, I wasn’t criticising you, just drawing you back to your use of the term and the original point.
A PAD strategy?
amberwaves: I’m not at all sure what you refer to. I was commenting on Chai-Anan opposing the idea of functional groups in a constitutional drafting committee and his point that such an arrangement, that did not allow people to vote, amounted to fascism. If you are refering to the idea that Chai-Anan was then opposing, then your references to 1983 and Suchit are way past the beginning date of this idea. There were appointed members of parliament from virtually the beginning and the great propagator of so-called Thai-style democracy was Kukrit Pramoj in the early 1960s when he supported Sarit’s authoritarianism. Actually Kukrit used the term “Thai-style government” then because he thought “Western-style democracy” simply didn’t fit Thailand. In this sense, PAD leaders and their hopelessly named “new politics” trace a legacy at least back to the military authoritarianism of the late 1950s.
But maybe I have missed the point.
Report on last night’s clash
I am wondering if the bloggers who state so-called facts (e.g. sumeth) can link their claims to actual evidence that is at least subject to a modicum of checking. Is there much point to wild accusations? We have enough of these from PAD leaders.
Report on last night’s clash
“kusons”
I believe you completely misinterpret the situation. Taxin has not organized the Government House siege, that was PAD, and that has escalated the situation beyond the tolerable. In no country of the world this would have been tolerated.
What we are in now is clearly a long planned and well executed revolution supported by military factions, and whose leaders have a proven distrust of anything resembling democracy. The country is collapsing, and the way i see things developing – that has been part of the strategy.
Why could possibly one scream “Gu Chart” and at the same time disable with incredible accuracy every single thing that makes a Nation work, and not even try the constitutional avenues that this system allows, by a constitution they themselves helped writing, and not the government?
Working as a journalist is more than hazardous under those conditions, especially the constant threats of PAD “Naclop Srivichai”. I am not talking about getting in the line of fire – i knew that this might happen.
I have found the PAD rather hostile to every attempt of journalism, their leaders are not willing to engage in talks, they are only mouthing propaganda, most of it lies, such as the constant warnings of imminent attacks by UDD, and much similar. As a journalist i feel not safe in the PAD camp, and i know that many other journalists, Thai and foreign, have exactly the same view. We do discuss that often.
Yet, i have never been threatened by UDD. I have been able to hold talks with most of their leaders. I was able to ask critical questions.
I am never asked there to report from their side, as i always get by PAD.
About the quality of the present government we may not disagree much. I also do not particularly like this government. But PAD is out to destroy the whole system, and replace it with something the vast majority of Thais will never accept.
Who started it? In my view it clearly was Sondhi Limthongkul and the PAD. This led to a military coup, and from there only one escalation after the other, mostly driven by PAD, followed by crude and inefficient tactics by a government clearly overwhelmed by this.
PAD feels attacked because it marched to Government House? Police has attempted to clear this completely illegal occupation, was nearly successful, used minimum amounts of violence (I was there), with court orders, until 30 Senators and Abhisit clearly in cohorts with PAD have subverted the course of the law, and sent this situation into a debacle.
PAD threats of cutting of electricity and water only added to the Chaos.
Because that is the only logical explanation i can see for PAD activities – creating maximum amount of Chaos.
You just wait and see how you will like the “New Thailand” that may arise out of this insanity. I already know that it really scares the Shit out of me.
Thai crisis. Royal silence.
Personally, I am glad HMK has chosen to stay out of this. Even if current events seem to say otherwise, I trust Thai society has finally come of age to resolve this without HMK’s intervention – and it is certainly about time (ever optimistic as usual, I am stating this more out of hope than confidence).
This is conflict amongst the arrogant Bangkok and urban-based elites (lovely ideal, “Rural Constitution” – but the products leave much to be desired – a series of urban-based capitalist mafias through the decades) – each with very clear visions and agenda on how they’d like Thailand to be run. The key players who will either resolve this or make matters worse are PMSamak, PMThaksin, various factions of the PPP, Sonthi, Chamlong and the PAD, Gen Anupong – products of the Rural Constitution; Middle-class anger/arrogance/impatience; and the military respectively.
The military has interestingly decided that this is a “political issue” and will not intervene either way (break up PAD or stage another coup). As, in this situation, they are still the most powerful group, that can be seen as progress in itself (especially in the context of past history/practices). Gen Anupong has clearly defined and limited the army’s role to keeping the PAD and UDD apart… Clearly in the cooler-head Thai Phuyai mold, he has consistently maintained his neutrality. (How a decision made a over a year ago, by other cool-head Thai Phuyais, made the difference! IF PAD’s choice, GenSaprang held the reigns, Thailand would already be operating in the undemocratic 70:30 mode!!)
So it is more or less up to two parties. PAD will not bulge until PMSamak steps down. PMSamak will not bulge until PAD leaves.
In many ways I feel sorry for PMSamak. All he wants, and very badly, is his four years in office and to retire gracefully – unfortunately he signed a pact with the devil and repayment is due with high interests. He fooled PMThaksin, who picked him as his nominee for his take-no-prisoner divisive style – thinking PMSamak will quickly pass constitution amendments and dissolve parliament to pave way for his return, by popular demand ofcourse, to power. Having shook off PMThaksin and, yet, maintaining PMThaksin’s tacit support (a civil war almost broke out in PPP when PMThaksin’s and KYPotjaman’s arrest warrant was issued countrywide after they fleed), he now faces PAD, hell-bent on bringing him down. PMThaksin through FMNoppadol essentially fed PAD the ammunition to bring PMSamak down (all PMSamak’s cabinet had to do with KhaoPhraVihear was to heed advice from the responsible agencies, seek a co-application with Cambodia for WH listing – or at least put the question to the parliament and the public first! Now PPPwants a referendum – only when it suits!).
He is essentially already a lame-duck PM with little support base in the party (how many cabinet ministers did he actually picked?). The police are ineffectual and the military are playing referee. The only thing keeping him in power is essentially his house dissolution card. No MPs want an election now (despite Aphisit’s call for dissolution as a temporal solution), especially without PMThaksin’s funding and the mega-projects not starting yet (gotta have their 15-25% cut first to line their pockets and fund the election). A refendum, ofcourse, would be cheaper than an all out general election…
Without the house dissolution card, I suspect PMSamak would have already been replaced as PM. I read in BangkokPost yesterday TycoonSonthi saying that he might be willing to talk if Suebpong Suebwonglee or Somchai Wongsawat is PM in Samak’s place (although stating that his views does not represent all the PAD’s leadership). If true, then a resolution is in the offing (over PMSamak’s dead body it seems!).
And I think this is consistent with the message (at least my interpretation of it) from the palace and the military is for the Bangkok and urban-based elites to sit, talk and resolve this amongst themselves like responsible PhuYais. Thais have been disappointed many times before and used to it, but it should be the least we can expect in this day and age.
My analysis of the PAD leadership is that most are actually willing to compromise. I am not sure of MajGenChamlong – who many seem to give too little credit (who, with his military background, is behind PAD’s strategies and disciplined defences). I dare say we owe both the 1997 Constitution and PMThaksin to his uncompromising stances that led to the bloodshed in 1992. Oh, don’t forget he also bought PMThaksin into politics – and now we have a historical case study of the mentor trying to kill off his best student for good! I really wonder what is in his head right now???
Report on last night’s clash
Sumet: A demon’s thought: maybe no need to change the electoral system, but just beat the PPP Devils in their own game:
1. Lowest Cost – Make it Mandatory for the Electoral to Swear during the Ballot Box that “To the Holy Beings That I Worship, that I Shall Not Vote for the Party that Buys Votes. If I do, I impose myself for a lifetime of Damnedness”. The uneducated gullibles are very afraid to “Animism, Hinduism, and Spritualism” anyway, and should comply -especially if they believe in “Sa-ban” (Swearing), the same type they swear to when they receive vote buying money. We should now prevent vote buying by up to 50% I believe.
2. Higher Cost – As alot of PAD do sponsor poor people to education, they can: Sponsor 1 Vote per person to prevent vote buying;
A. Pay 500THB per head for people to come to read & understand PAD information why Thaksin is not an option — nothing about vote buying. Pay an extra 500THB if they come a Certified Instructor.
B. Pay 500THB per head, to Vote anyone except PPP or its other virulent strains. Any lawyer can confirm to me that this is legal, to pay someone not to vote for anyone except a party?
3. High Cost – Get the Government to pay 500THB as a bonus for everyone to show up during elections and Vote. This may make people compelled to vote — at least they get something by voting, but still susceptible for “Rakers” who get both Government and PPP money.
Each interesting ways can be done alone, or in combination.
For Democratic Purists, you’d probably want to just not read this Devil’s Advocate/ BatMan Tactics; As per Sumet’s comments, I am just thinking out loud to how to “Least Adjust the Electoral System while putting in a few mechanisms to get the Uneducated Gullibles to Vote without being Bought by the Dark Side Thaksin”.
I personally believe my #1 is a Low-Cost, High Effectiveness Winner, without the need of expensive costs, and hope someone can put it into the Election Laws.
Interview with Burma’s Ma Thanegi
Jeff,
Glad to know that you are interested in Burma’s crisis. Just want to remind you that try to explore all the sources as much as you can. There are both pro-junta and anti-junta media you could find different views and bias. And watch out some people who voice for junta as the Burmese junta usually hires advocacy firms and individuals e.g. some scholars and journalists for counter-arguing the issues like ‘sanctions’. The junta is good in bribing and buying international megaphones for justifying their brutality.
Best,
Yeyint