Comments

  1. jonfernquest says:

    “The coup now looks like merely a sabbatical for Thaksin. We are back to square one, back to the pre-coup period when Thaksin and his cronies were in power.”

    That’s certainly one opinion. That’s things never change and evolve dynamically becoming fundamentally different and better for all, more than a little pessimistic.

    Does Thanong honestly think that Thaksin’s next drug war is going to be like the last one complete with vigilante ravings, death lists, no trials, bodies, no rich powerful drug figures arrested, and then some lame excuse like, it was all the mafia cleaning house, with no police involvement at all.

    The pessimistic side says nothing ever changes, that we’re condemned to some infernal merry go round, but there’s another more optimistic side that says things might get better. It’s not likeThai society has suddenly depolarized itself. The tale of two democracies has been going on for decades and could continue if people start to step on other’s peoples’ feet. I think the powers that be realize this, but for how long, has the tale of two democracies ended for good?

  2. Taxi Driver says:

    On the contratry Srithanonchai the theory suggests that you might indeed be well served by doing what you sarcastically suggest. You’d need a diverse enough crowd though (probably >40) and made up of indepedent decision-makers who are motivated to give you the correct dianosis to cure your ailment (these are conditions specified by the theory). Of course it is somewhat impractical for a sick person to seek and consult such a crowd, and this is perhaps why some seek second opinions?

    Nevertheless Srithanonchai I agree you’ve identified a valid critism of the theory – that it might not apply in certain specialist areas such as science and technology. But we’re talking about the social sciences here, dealing with human decison making where ‘tacit knowledge’ seems to be important.

    As Surowiecki writes: “ The idea of the wisdom of crowds is not that a group will always give you the right answer but that on average it will consistently come up with a better answer than any individual could provide. ” In a way, isn’t the recognition of this truth the basic tenet of democracy with its popular elections?

  3. vorapat says:

    Who is Mr.Paul Handley?

    How could he touch our beloved KING and ROYAL FAMILY?

    Thai people all love our king so much,and you can’t touch them,OK?

    Mr.Paul Handley,I hope you to noticed that all thai people don’t like this book and don’t want to spend any money for it.
    And if you have met the king before please tell us so we can know that you are saying the truth,

  4. Srithanonchai says:

    TD: All right — from now on, when I have some pain in my stomach or intestine, I won’t go to see the expert doctor again but rather gather an uninformed crowd of independent decision-makers and let them decide how I should treat this problem. Hopefully, this “wisdom of the crowds” won’t lead to my premature demise.

    This perspective also opens up new hope regarding the qualifications of ministers in the Samak 1 cabinet…

  5. aiontay says:

    The Rawang style certainly is a bit more impressive than the standard Jinghpaw style, although I’m partial to Jinghpaw style nhpye (shoulder bags). Still, I can’t help but wonder if there isn’t a political aspect to the choice of costume. After all the Rawangs are the one Kachin group that did not support the KIO, except for some individuals, and in fact there was a civil war between the KIO and the Rawangs back in the 1960s. Of course, this was a celebration of the Kachin State, so maybe it was an attempt to be inclusive of all the Kachin groups, but he could have worn Atsi, Lashi or Maru attire.

    Oh, and for it to be chiefly attire, I think there is supposed to be a tiger jaw attached to the scabbard.

  6. Thanks Aiontay,

    You are right – I think…

    Just to further complicate matters, there is also a picture of Kachin jade and timber tycoon, Sutdu Yup Zau Hkawng, on the front page of 2008’s Jinghpaw Mungdaw Nsen (Vol.1, No.2), that has him wearing a very similiar (the same?) outfit. Yup Zau Hkawng is, as far as I know, not Rawang…not even close.

    Of course the outfit worn from time-to-time by both the Northern Commander and Yup Zau Hkawng is a particularly impressive one. Does that explain why it is used in this way? Or is it (now?) actually a “chiefly” outfit that crosses the boundaries of the various “Kachin” groups? Suggestions from readers are, as always, very welcome.

    Best wishes to all.

  7. fall says:

    Perhaps the best outcome is that sufficiency economy will largely be ignored except as a promotional strategy for rural development programs.

    I think this is the key quote for the paper.

    The core problem that sufficiency economy try to tackle seem to be rural worker migration (to urban). But the “sufficiency economy” seem to take it the wrong way. China is a good example of effect on increasing rural population.

    May be the problem should be address in the exact opposite, like Japan regional crop variation. Instead of encouraging model farmland and government left villager alone. Encourage farmer to produce only best yield crop in the area and government promote promotion, transport, and sales.

  8. aiontay says:

    If I’m not mistaken the Northern Commander is wearing Rawang chiefly regalia. I wonder if he got it from the Rawang militias he’s been organizing. Interesting choice of attire.

  9. The Karen National Union (USA) wishes the men and women of the Republic of Kawthloolei”s armed forces , the Karen National Liberation Army and all of the inhabitants of the republic ,its best wishes on this 59th year of the founding of the Karen state, the Republic of Kawthoolei.
    Let us remind ourselves on this day of revolution to redouble our efforts towards bringing an end to the hostilities, which can only come by victory on the battlefield against our enemy.
    Those of you in Kawthoolei, especially those of you on the front lines should know that your fight and sacrifices are not forgotten, nor are they to be in vain.
    With a new year we hope that this will be the year when our Karen forces will vanquish the invader and then and only then will the Karen people be free to determine their own destiny.
    Long live the Karen Republic of Kawthoolei!
    Long live the Karen National Liberation Army!
    Long live the Karen People!

    Signed,

    Thomas James Bleming
    Consul General
    Republic of Kawthoolei
    Karen National Union (USA)
    Lusk, Wyoming 82225

  10. Taxi Driver says:

    There is a body of evidence that shows that the outcome of decisions made by a diverse group of independently-deciding actors (a “crowd”) — most of whom do not have ‘expertise’, and many can even be considered ‘ignorant’ — is consistently better than the decision of individual or a small group of experts, no matter how ‘expert’ they are.

    A famous anecdote (attributed to Sir Francis Galton) is the story of a contest at country fair in England to guess the weight of a cow on display. Close to a thousand guesses were entered, some by knowledgable farmers but most by those who had no expertise whatsover. Not only was the average of all the guesses of 1,197 lbs almost exactly correct (the cow’s weight was actually 1,198 lbs), but it was far superior to the estimates of so-called livestock experts.

    In Finance, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is based on the same argument. Back in the 50’s, F.A. Hayek’s essays against central planning (vs the market) were also founded on the same logic. There are other more modern publications that consistently demonstrate the phenomenon that groups are often more right in their decision making than brilliant experts – i.e. ‘the many are smarter than the few’. A good read on this topic is James Surowiecki’s “The Wisdom of Crowds”. Surowiecki conducted a number of experiments, one of which was when he asked a group of 56 students to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar. The average of the guesses (871) was closer to the correct number of 850 than that of all but one of the students’ estimates.

    I believe the same ‘wisdom of crowds’ applies to democracy. Even though individual voters may be ‘uninformed’ (either voluntarily because they couldn’t be bothered, or involuntarily because of barriers) the outcome of decision by the ‘crowd’ is still the best one to rely on.

  11. Thanks for your comment Thorn. Here is a more complete discussion of the “non-agricultural enterprise” sector with the Baan Tiam economy. I am still working on this paper and will be adding more detail over the next few weeks.

    It is worth emphasising the crucial point that out of Baan Tiam’s 126 households about 43 percent are not engaged in independent farming. Some of these derive income from working as wage labourers, primarily in the cash crop agricultural sector. But there is also substantial employment outside the agricultural sector. In the livelihood survey I undertook in 2003 28 percent of households indicated that non-agricultural employment was their most important course of income. An additional 8 percent were supported by shopkeeping and local handicraft/industry (3 percent) supported relatively few households. These figures were broadly corroborated by a later survey (2006) in which households were asked if they earn more from cash crops or wages: 61 percent nominated wages (and another 7 percent said their income from wages and cash crops was roughly equal). This latter survey sought to disaggregate the sources of wage income in a little more detail. 31 percent of those surveyed nominated agricultural wage labour as their most important source of cash income. The second most important was government employment with 27 percent. The importance of this government sector was underlined by the additional 9 percent who nominated “community projects” (most of which are heavily dependant on direct government grants) as their most important source of cash income. Other key sources were local business activity (18 percent) and non-agricultural wage labour (10 percent).

    Construction is a key sector in which Baan Tiam residents gain business income and wage-labour employment. In local perceptions construction is one of the key markers of development. Over the past few years Baan Tiam has witnessed an array of construction projects: the paving of village roads; a handicrafts centre (now used to house the community shop); a large concrete pavilion for the village territorial spirit; improvements to the temple, including an elaborate bell tower; a new water supply system; a new irrigation weir; two bridges; a community rice mill; and several large private houses. A similar array of projects is evident in the surrounding villages. These various construction projects are predominarly funded by government grants, donations from sponsors living outside the village and private investment in housing (usually a result of lucrative salaried employment). Baan Tiam’s residents are involved in these construction projects in various ways. Most directly, and profitably, there are two local contractor resident in the village. One is a highly successful businessman who has won a steady supply of construction work from the local council (tesaban), no doubt linked to the fact that his father in law is the local mayor. Another contractor focuses on the design and construction of private residences both within Baan Tiam and the district more generally. There is also another prominent contractor within the district who has close links with Baan Tiam, having acquired significant land holdings there. Each of these contractors employs Baan Tiam residents to work on their various construction projects. Construction work usually pays considerably more than wage labour in the agricultural sector especially for those undertaking skilled activities (such as carpentry or bricklaying).

    The government sector provides employment in several different ways. First there are those who hold official and salaried positions. Most prominent is the mayor and deputy mayor of the local municipal council both of who are resident in Baan Tiam. Several other residents also hold professional positions with the district or provincial administration. Others hold salaried positions in government-run services such as the district hospital or the district and local schools and in government departments, particularly the forestry department and the national park administration. Less skilled employment is also available in local agricultural development projects (especially the nearby Royal Project development centre) and in re-forestation projects run by watershed management units. The government sector also provides substantial financial support for an array of community projects that also provide various sources of employment and income.

    There is an active commercial sector within Baan Tiam. There are seven shops; two small restaurants; two small petrol stations; several crop traders and several stall holders in the nearby district market. The shops sell a wide array of basic consumer durables and some locally produced fresh vegetables. Much of their custom is from Baan Tiam, but some of the shops have an active trade with residents of an upland Karen village that is located in the national park about 10 kilometres to the east of Baan Tiam.

    And there are several very small scale enterprises. These include one household producing fried bananas; another producing steamed bamboo shoots; and several producing furniture and other forms of woodwork. There is an active underground trade in illegally cut timber from the nearby national park. Several households are involved in felling trees, milling the timber and selling the high value planks to builders and furniture producers.

  12. Thorn says:

    This is the must-read paper for Thai economic students.

    However, I’m still curious about the last 30-40 percent share of non-agricultural enterprise. What sort of government employment are there in this share? Is it employment related to government administrative unit (such as TAO)?

    And what sort of government spending that support these agricultural enterprises? Do you mean OTOP?

  13. cf says:
  14. Dear Welton,
    In reply to your question . We cannot nor do we recruit anyone within the United States to go to the Republic of Kawthoolei to fight.
    Under the laws (U.S. Neutrality Act), this is illegal, however if you and your friends want to get an insight into the struggle of our people (which as of this day marks its 59th year), then may we suggest that you and your friends purchase “War in Karen Country”,
    which was written by Thomas James Bleming and which is selling
    world wide(see “Bleming books”, “Thomas Bleming books” on both the Google/Yahoo search modes), and within this book it contains all the answers to your questions as well as a way to contact the Karen National Liberation Army .
    If you would contact us (use our e-mail) , we would be more then happy to discuss your plans, however we remind you and everyone else that we do NOT recruit within the United States .
    The purpose of the Karen National Union Information Office is to answer questions about the Republic of Kawthoolei, offer information as to tourism/travel within the Karen state as well as information dealing with investing in Kawthoolei, the sale of Karen War Bonds (which give a 100 percent return to those investors), etc.
    As for Mr. Bleming, he has promised to give 90 percent of the royalities from “War in Karen Country” to the Karen cause for freedom and has promised an additional one million dollars to purchase our country’s war bonds.
    Mr. Thomas Bleming is the only American citizen within the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army at the moment. He is the personal representative of Colonel Nerdah Mya, the Republic of Kawthoolei’s provisional head of state. Mr. Bleming serves as Consul General in the Karen National Union’s diplomatic section.

  15. Thanks Jon – sorry to hear that comments have been dropped. Sorry for the disruptions. Please let me know if there is anything we can do to help.

    And, Grasshopper, thanks for your question – as you suggest it is hard to say definitively. Of course, the senior Burmese Army contingent (which included a few other generals) had a number of engagements with the high and mighty from the Kachin side. This is not surprising. Many on all (elite) sides of the current ceasefire “divide” work closely together on a range of issues.

    But I think your question is more about “ordinary” contacts between the Burmese Army and the Kachin. From what I saw and heard around the Manau there was no great appreciation for the Burmese Army presence. They are tolerated, perhaps only because they are so heavily armed. This is not really an exceptional situation. In fact, from what I saw, many of the Burmese soldiers didn’t expect to be greeted warmly. They know the score.

    The BNI (Kachin News Group) report is certainly one interpretation of what happened. In this series of posts I hope to show a number of other aspects of the festival.

    The Manau was tense – there is no question about that. I also hope to clarify some of those tensions in coming posts. But if you have more questions before then, please feel free to ask.

    Best wishes to all.

  16. jonfernquest says:

    Thanks for the nice photos. I’ll be amazed if this actually makes it through since every comment to this blog for the last week has been dropped.

  17. jonfernquest says:

    “If we need the brothers it is for entertainment and saying things that need to be said. God forbid their nutty marxism ever had an influence on reality.”

    How can you lump them together? Jon Ungphakorn won a Magsaysay Award in 2005 and hardly has nutty ideas, whether you agree with his storming parliament or not.

    [Please note: either your spam bucket is full of rejected posts or you are being censored/blocked by someone, maybe yourselves]

    sdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfsdfs

  18. jonfernquest says:

    “If we need the brothers it is for entertainment and saying things that need to be said. God forbid their nutty marxism ever had an influence on reality.”

    How can you lump them together? Jon Ungphakorn won a Magsaysay Award in 2005 and hardly has nutty ideas, whether you agree with his storming parliament or not.

    [Please note: either your spam bucket is full of rejected posts or you are being censored/blocked by someone, maybe yourselves]

    Nicholas Farrelly notes: Thanks Jon. I have attempted to save as many of your comments as possible. I think I got them all. If other New Mandala readers are having similiar problems posting comments then please let me know. Spam filters are sometimes far less sophisticated than one would hope. I apologise for any inconvenience this caused, Jon. Let’s hope the problem is now sorted.

  19. Grasshopper says:

    This is really fantastic.

    This article:
    http://www.bnionline.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3315&Itemid=6

    paints a picture of tension during the festival. In relation to the KIA man with the KIO scarf and what you said in a previous response to Aiontay that For most of the Manau, Burmese troops were stationed around the whole site in all the most important locations. At times they even patrolled the dancing area itself. Their presence was particularly marked during the period on 10 January when the Northern Commander, Major-General Ohn Myint, attended, did you see any Burmese Army unofficially mixing with Kachin? Haha. Maybe it is a silly idea, but I think that sort of thing would provide greater hope for outsiders as opposed to believing that this manau did more to promote Kachin fascism as a result of the facades revealed in Burmese sincerity. (That is if the BNI article is to be believed..) I apologize if that question is a bit ‘yes’ or ‘no’. My intent is just to find out how secular this festival is and so any elaboration on that would be excellent! 🙂

  20. jonfernquest says:

    Srithanonchai: “…people there (and beyond) make non-rational decisions about their political preferences, because **they lack information**, and part of this lack stems from the combination of systematic propaganda, including ceremonies and other public activities, with the equally **systematic withholding of information**…”

    Yes. yes, I can understand you. (I’m still working on the paper above) If there was such a thing as local news that probed a little bit into what was happening locally, things might be a lot different.

    When I think of all the questions that were not asked by the people around me, that they would have a right to ask in a truly “democratic” or better “participatory” situation, in my one rural Thailand work and life situation a couple years ago, I shudder.

    Like why are Burmese migrant workers in squatter camps building that university when the poor Thai farmers who live next door need that job, why did they blow 60 million baht on a spa in back of the uni when the Thai ajaans only get paid 16,000 a month? Whatever happened to the law professor and and university vice president arrested for running a teenage prostitution ring? Why is that accounting professor being pressured into giving the substandard accounting students he just flunked a passing grade by the dean? (we’re not going to fire you, but you simply won’t teach anymore) Why did I receive a memo on my desk ordering to tell the university accreditation committee a bunch of things that might or might not be true, but which it is up to me to decide upon because I am asked for my honest opinion, How did the dean suddenly end up with a new SUV at the end of the semester after irregularities in teacher pay? Why did that Swiss NGO volunteer hang himself in the local prison one day after the police where trying to extort 1.5 million baht from him? What did he say in the journals that were apparently destroyed by the police? why exactly did he get arrested anyway after that argument with another NGO? Why was the Akha father-in-law of that Polish guy shot in head and dumped in the road, apparently by the police? Why were those kids with black masks over their head shot and dumped from the back of a pickup truck in back of the hospital morgue? Why does the head of that Christian hilltribe NGO spend most of his time at the golf course, which I guess is a moot point now, because I hear he’s been canned for sexual indiscretions….

    IMHO more time with the details, the information, less time with the fancy French words.

    Also Thailand does not exist in a vaccuum. You don’t think countries like South Korea have had similar experiences in their post-WWII history? Why the myopic focus on one country all the time?