Nicely done with the touch of irony, but what needs to be said is that the Palace has always been conveniently supporting whatever regime fits their purposes, rather than the democratic or progressive regime.
This means that the Dem could still form a government, but only with the help of ALL the other 5 parties (to leave out the last two would still be too precarious). In other word, even with the support of BOTH Chart Thai and Phua Phaendin, the two next largest parties, would not be enough.
To hold such a coalition together require enormous “authority”, perhaps only possible with “outside” help (I think).
On the other hand, PPP only requires the support of Chart Thai or Phua Phaendin.
Could someone resolve this for me: Looking in from the outside, as someone who would like to see Thailand become a modern progressive social democracy, Abhisit and the Democrats look much like model western liberal democrats than do Thaksin and Samak, who seem to be corrupt demagogues. Yet all accounts suggest that the Palace, Prem, Sondhi etc (ie, the old undemocratic elite) want the Democrats to win, while the masses, at least outside Bangkok and the South, continue to want Thaksin, or a proxy for him such as Samak. So who should progressive foreigners who want to see Thailand prosper and become more democratic support?
mcot is about 5 mins ahead, but it’s overloaded and slower.
From an hour ago, when they had counted 2m votes, up to now when they have counted 16m, PPP has been around 220 and DP around 160. That’s going to be it.
PPP winning would be interesting. In fact, all it shows is that the coup has gone full circle, and the country will go back into the business of pro and anti Thaksin.
I always said that Thaksin needed to be knocked off with people voting, not a coup. I would be glad if this ‘win’ for PPP would reach that eventuality.
The reporting of the results is streets ahead of anything seen before in Thailand – in terms of speed, accessibility, whatever.
The Nation’s figures, which are a few minutes behind the ECT site, have now counted 10.8m from the constituency poll, and 4.5m from the party list. This is a pretty good sample. For the last half-hour, the results predicted by this count have been pretty stable. There is always some early bias because urban stations get counted quicker, but the stability of the figures suggest this bias may not be so great.
The predicted result is:
PPP 188 34 222
DP 122 35 157
CT 39 4 43
PP 27 6 33
Other 24 1 25
I would guess that the final results for the top 2 parties will be within +/- 10 seats of this. That gives us a very delicate situation, with a clear win for PPP, but not an absolute majority.
It’s simply a description of the Election Commission Act itself. But of course, you could say that it also has ‘orgainic relationship to the Constitution’ since the Constitution prescribs that such Act be enacted to set up the Electiona Commission.
Section 85/8. Prior to the announcement of the result of an election, if there appears to be convincing evidence that a political party, any official or member of a political party acted in violation of this Organic Act or caused another person to commit such act, supported or connived at such act by another person for the benefit of a political party, and if the Election Commission considers that such act is likely to cause the election to be dishonest and unfair, the Election Commission shall have the power to announce that the ballot papers with votes in favour of such political party are invalid and not be counted as votes only for the area where such act occurred.
Khun Somsak, what is this “organic act” in reference to here? Does it imply an organic relationship to the consitution? Or is it a description of the act itself?
Ah I see. I did interpret organic to mean: ‘whatever grows from the law.’ But wouldn’t ‘organic’ also mean that the law can be pruned? Otherwise there could be weeds (Thaksinites, Republicans) that might overpower the plant that is meant to be growing?
Surely the leaders of the coup would have been suspended from voting if this section did not allow for organic intervention?!
No. no. Khun Grasshopper just mis-understood a bit. “organic” (act) here is meant to be transalation of the Thai word “kot mai prakob ratthathammanun” (“organic” to the Constitution”, i.e. law ACCOMPANYING the Constitution, such as Elections Law, Constitutional Court Act, Political Party Act, and so on.)
I suggest the King’s speech to the armed forces and the police should be seen together with his similar speech to the judges just days earlier. Taken together, they indicate, I think, that the palace circles (the king, Prem, Surayut, etc) are just gearing themselves up to the stage of ‘preparedness’ to any eventuality after the elections, whatever that maybe. I don’t think even they, however “divine”, could predict with certainty the outcome of the elections. But they know, as we all do, that they could only be more troubles ahead. (Even if the Dem win, troubles could hardly be avoided).
Yet another exit poll…Ramkamhaeng exit poll gives PPP 255 out of 480. Dems would get 159, Chart Thai 48, and RJT-CP 15. There is some confusion on Motherland’s estimate at this stage.
On Thai TVs now, there are some discussions on which party will come third – Chart Thai or Motherland. I believe both Democrats and PPP also look at this issue as it will determine who they should tactically approach first to form coalition.
From Constitution 07: Section 237. Any candidate in an election, who has committed, created or supported any person to commit any act in violation of the Organic(???!) Act on Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Taking of Office of Senators or orders and announcements of the Election Commission, causing the election not to be proceeded in an honest and fair manner, shall be deprived of his or her voting rights in accordance with the Organic Act on Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Taking of Office of Senators.
The focus is now on the PPP number which has been significantly differently by the two teams of ABAC and Suan Dusit. Suan Dusit gives more to PPP at the expense of Motherland Party. Both have their greatest strengths in the Northeast – the stronghold of defunct Thai Rak Thai.
According to Suan Dusit, PPP would gain 256 out of 480 which could easily form a government on its own.
However, ABAC gives PPP 202. ABAC has Dems at 146 which still needs a hundred more to compete in forming the coalition government. They also give Chart Thai at 49 and Motherland at 42.
I think it is quite odd that he believes? (or just says) that Thailand can ‘collapse’. IMO, maybe he is projecting his reign as symbolism for all of Thailand. Maybe the importance of the military will be much more overt with Vajiralongkorn (who has a degree in military strategy?) and therefore to maintain the monarchy as it is, he is emphasising the importance of the military now.
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Analysis
Nicely done with the touch of irony, but what needs to be said is that the Palace has always been conveniently supporting whatever regime fits their purposes, rather than the democratic or progressive regime.
Latest Count
The latest numbers already changed as I typed, but the pattern, and hence the ‘calculation’ above remains largely valid.
Latest Count
Let’s suppose for the moment that the final official number will not be much different from this latest:
PPP 220
Dem 162
Chart Thai 40
Phua Phaendin 30
RuamJaiThai 12
Matchima 11
Pracharat 5
(Total 480)
This means that the Dem could still form a government, but only with the help of ALL the other 5 parties (to leave out the last two would still be too precarious). In other word, even with the support of BOTH Chart Thai and Phua Phaendin, the two next largest parties, would not be enough.
To hold such a coalition together require enormous “authority”, perhaps only possible with “outside” help (I think).
On the other hand, PPP only requires the support of Chart Thai or Phua Phaendin.
Analysis
Could someone resolve this for me: Looking in from the outside, as someone who would like to see Thailand become a modern progressive social democracy, Abhisit and the Democrats look much like model western liberal democrats than do Thaksin and Samak, who seem to be corrupt demagogues. Yet all accounts suggest that the Palace, Prem, Sondhi etc (ie, the old undemocratic elite) want the Democrats to win, while the masses, at least outside Bangkok and the South, continue to want Thaksin, or a proxy for him such as Samak. So who should progressive foreigners who want to see Thailand prosper and become more democratic support?
Latest Count
mcot is about 5 mins ahead, but it’s overloaded and slower.
From an hour ago, when they had counted 2m votes, up to now when they have counted 16m, PPP has been around 220 and DP around 160. That’s going to be it.
Latest Count
PPP winning would be interesting. In fact, all it shows is that the coup has gone full circle, and the country will go back into the business of pro and anti Thaksin.
I always said that Thaksin needed to be knocked off with people voting, not a coup. I would be glad if this ‘win’ for PPP would reach that eventuality.
Latest Count
Sorry. the number for the Dem should read : 162 (128/34)
The number for PPP is now reduced to 218 (184/34)
Latest Count
I suggest another channel to check live results from the MCOT
http://www.mcot.net/election/
The latest number (at 18.02):
PPP 222 (188/34)
Dem 159 (125/24)
Chart Thai 41 (37/4)
Phua Phaendin 32 (25/7)
Ruamjai Thai 12 (11/1)
Matchima 9 (9/-)
Latest Count
The reporting of the results is streets ahead of anything seen before in Thailand – in terms of speed, accessibility, whatever.
The Nation’s figures, which are a few minutes behind the ECT site, have now counted 10.8m from the constituency poll, and 4.5m from the party list. This is a pretty good sample. For the last half-hour, the results predicted by this count have been pretty stable. There is always some early bias because urban stations get counted quicker, but the stability of the figures suggest this bias may not be so great.
The predicted result is:
PPP 188 34 222
DP 122 35 157
CT 39 4 43
PP 27 6 33
Other 24 1 25
I would guess that the final results for the top 2 parties will be within +/- 10 seats of this. That gives us a very delicate situation, with a clear win for PPP, but not an absolute majority.
Accepting the result?
It’s simply a description of the Election Commission Act itself. But of course, you could say that it also has ‘orgainic relationship to the Constitution’ since the Constitution prescribs that such Act be enacted to set up the Electiona Commission.
Accepting the result?
From the “Organic Act on the Election Commission”
Section 85/8. Prior to the announcement of the result of an election, if there appears to be convincing evidence that a political party, any official or member of a political party acted in violation of this Organic Act or caused another person to commit such act, supported or connived at such act by another person for the benefit of a political party, and if the Election Commission considers that such act is likely to cause the election to be dishonest and unfair, the Election Commission shall have the power to announce that the ballot papers with votes in favour of such political party are invalid and not be counted as votes only for the area where such act occurred.
Khun Somsak, what is this “organic act” in reference to here? Does it imply an organic relationship to the consitution? Or is it a description of the act itself?
Thankyou for your time,
Colum
Accepting the result?
Ah I see. I did interpret organic to mean: ‘whatever grows from the law.’ But wouldn’t ‘organic’ also mean that the law can be pruned? Otherwise there could be weeds (Thaksinites, Republicans) that might overpower the plant that is meant to be growing?
Surely the leaders of the coup would have been suspended from voting if this section did not allow for organic intervention?!
Maybe it has been lost in translation for me.
Accepting the result?
No. no. Khun Grasshopper just mis-understood a bit. “organic” (act) here is meant to be transalation of the Thai word “kot mai prakob ratthathammanun” (“organic” to the Constitution”, i.e. law ACCOMPANYING the Constitution, such as Elections Law, Constitutional Court Act, Political Party Act, and so on.)
Analysis
I suggest the King’s speech to the armed forces and the police should be seen together with his similar speech to the judges just days earlier. Taken together, they indicate, I think, that the palace circles (the king, Prem, Surayut, etc) are just gearing themselves up to the stage of ‘preparedness’ to any eventuality after the elections, whatever that maybe. I don’t think even they, however “divine”, could predict with certainty the outcome of the elections. But they know, as we all do, that they could only be more troubles ahead. (Even if the Dem win, troubles could hardly be avoided).
Latest Count
Yet another exit poll…Ramkamhaeng exit poll gives PPP 255 out of 480. Dems would get 159, Chart Thai 48, and RJT-CP 15. There is some confusion on Motherland’s estimate at this stage.
On Thai TVs now, there are some discussions on which party will come third – Chart Thai or Motherland. I believe both Democrats and PPP also look at this issue as it will determine who they should tactically approach first to form coalition.
Accepting the result?
From Constitution 07: Section 237. Any candidate in an election, who has committed, created or supported any person to commit any act in violation of the Organic(???!) Act on Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Taking of Office of Senators or orders and announcements of the Election Commission, causing the election not to be proceeded in an honest and fair manner, shall be deprived of his or her voting rights in accordance with the Organic Act on Election of Members of the House of Representatives and the Taking of Office of Senators.
The king must be a fantastic gardener.
New Mandala’s live Thai election coverage
Adam: Most of the parties have said around 8pm Thailand time, we should know the results
Latest Count
Chinnawut, thanks!
p/s: can you become New Mandala’s very own Antony Green? 🙂 (haha, http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/)
Latest Count
The focus is now on the PPP number which has been significantly differently by the two teams of ABAC and Suan Dusit. Suan Dusit gives more to PPP at the expense of Motherland Party. Both have their greatest strengths in the Northeast – the stronghold of defunct Thai Rak Thai.
According to Suan Dusit, PPP would gain 256 out of 480 which could easily form a government on its own.
However, ABAC gives PPP 202. ABAC has Dems at 146 which still needs a hundred more to compete in forming the coalition government. They also give Chart Thai at 49 and Motherland at 42.
Analysis
I think it is quite odd that he believes? (or just says) that Thailand can ‘collapse’. IMO, maybe he is projecting his reign as symbolism for all of Thailand. Maybe the importance of the military will be much more overt with Vajiralongkorn (who has a degree in military strategy?) and therefore to maintain the monarchy as it is, he is emphasising the importance of the military now.