“Paul Collier, the director of the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University. … It was Collier who … pioneered a new and unsentimental approach to the study of civil wars, demonstrating that most rebels in sub-Saharan Africa are not heroic freedom fighters but self-interested brigands……There are, he suggests, four traps into which really poor countries tend to fall. The first is civil war. Nearly three-quarters of the people in the bottom billion … have recently been through, or are still in the midst of, a civil war. Such wars usually drag on for years and have economically disastrous consequences. … Unfortunately, … the poorer a country becomes, the more likely it is to succumb to civil war… And once you’ve had one civil war, you’re likely to have more…” http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/06/sachs-vs-easter.html
China’s probably providing in a way for Burma, what the west cannot:
“Fear of ‘neo-colonialism’ has made
European politicians wary of military intervention,
but security is the precondition for development
and often it cannot be provided internally. Africa
currently has many post-conflict situations. These
are inherently fragile. Despite the attention given
to political solutions, neither democratic
constitutions nor post-conflict elections reduce
the risk of renewed conflict. In the long term,
economic growth cumulates to make the society
safer, but during the first decade of peace an
external military presence or guarantee is the only
reliable option.”
E D I T O R I A L : R E T H I N K I N G A S S I S TA N C E
F O R A F R I C A Paul Collier http://users.ox.ac.uk/~econpco/research/africa.htm
Here is an earlier Bangkok Post piece relevant to this topic:
Saturday June 23, 2007
CULTURAL CHANGE
Most Thais now live in cities, busy urban areas
Thailand is bracing for a ”third population explosion”, a term referring to a phenomenon in which more than half the country’s population, or about 32 million people, live in the cities and urban areas, a research study has found. The phenomenon has led to change in sexual behaviour, particularly in women in urban areas as many live more independently and are more open to sex, according to the study.
Pramote Prasartkul, a demographer attached to Mahidol University’s Institute for Population and Social Research, said the findings go against a traditional belief that most people live in rural areas. The trend, he said, is in line with a United Nations prediction that by 2008 more than half of the world’s population will live in urban areas.
According to Dr Pramote, the urban population covers people who live in cities without transferring their house registration, and commuters.
He said urban growth should raise alarm about potential impacts on various issues including environment, quality of living, and crime.
Researcher Orathai Rucharoenpornpanich, who studied impact of urban growth on sexual behaviour, said women who live in urban areas tend to be more open to sex. She said there is no significant difference between sexual behaviour of men in urban and rural areas.
About 40% of single women living in Bangkok have sexual relationships and the number is 1.2 times higher than in the urban areas in the provinces and 3.3 times higher than those in rural areas, Ms Orathai said.
The findings also show higher cohabitation and higher divorce rates among people living in cities, she added.
”For cohabitation, women in Bangkok are educated and independent, so they do not see the need to commit themselves to marriage. Having several boyfriends is fine and spices up their lives,” said Ms Orathai.
Her research work, Sex in the City, will be presented at a seminar, entitled Nakaratpiwat and Withee Cheewit Muang, to be held by the institute next Friday.
The researchers say the government should be aware of the change, and design a better HIV/Aids prevention scheme to cope.
”An HIV/Aids control unit exists only in Bangkok, but other big cities like Chiang Mai also need one,” said Apichart Chamrasritthirong.
He said a stiff conservative social order may no longer be appropriate, given the change.
”For instance, we may have to admit the fact that condoms should be handed out in education outlets to combat HIV/Aids,” he said.
Tara: I personally would prefer to see change in a different direction. Rather than western activists taking more notice of Burma, (or any other humanitarian distaster), how about we make it so that the fate of Burmese people isn’t tied to the attentions of people half a world away?
Are you saying that presently the fate of Burmese people is in the hands of people half a world away?!
What I wrote above in #2 is quite conservative, but untill the world is less divided with borders (especially borders increasingly significant in seperating economically developing nations from developed), our opinions and the opinions of Western governments do not count an iota. The only opinions that count in this matter are those of the citizens of Myanmar.
China’s presence in Burma is hardly new, as evidenced by the Anna Allot short story translation: The Python by NYI PU LAY (1988)
“Mandalay Burmese resent that their city, the former royal capital and a symbol of Burmese independence, is becoming a satellite town of Yunnan Province in China. Although it is never explicitly mentioned in the story that U Myo Khin, the house buyer, is Chinese (he is described as a recent arrival in Mandalay), it is made clear by the mention of his green ring (jade), his red car (good luck for the Chinese), his yellow skin, his heavy accent, and his struggle to read Burmese.” http://www.ibiblio.org/obl/docs/inked-over-ripped%20-out.htm
“Those sitting sipping coffee in Western cities talking theoretically about peace and war, have little concept of what it is like to simply get up and face hell each day.”
Well, I have more grey hairs on my head from actually living in the place, supporting a family in the place, dealing with my mother-in-law’s terminal illness in the place, etc, etc…and have ranted and raved occasionally about the horrible situation in the place, but all of this grandma’s hysterics, and calling the place “hell” is hysterics:
“Every day, they simply flee death, cloaked in shells, bullets, bayonets, mines, knives, disease and starvation.”
Plus absurdities like this:
“…in Burma where women bear arms as a matter of necessity, and in continuity of historical lineage.”
I doubt if funding a myriad of ethnic insurgencies (check out the list of acronyms in Martin Smith’s or Bertil Lintner’s books) or direct military intervention like the Iraq fiasco under Bremer (where imperial hubris was disabused of the notion that other cultures are little puppets to be molded in one’s own neocon image) will work.
For reality, check out Larry Jagan (BBC) on Chinese presence in Burma:
Angelina has also visited Chin refugees in India. 😉 I find it difficult to sort out exactly what she’s calling for here, as well – if she’s criticizing peace activists who push for non-violent tactics in Burma, or peace activists who don’t even notice Burma and call for peace in other countries. I’ll agree to Aiontay’s point about activists needing a more nuanced approach to Burma. But the idea of armed struggle isn’t something I have a problem with either, and I can’t say that I’ve ever met a “Burma” activist of any nationality who thought that the armed groups should stick to non-violent tactics. Although, I have been frustrated by consistent portrayal of cease-fires as positive, when they are typically anything but for the civilians caught in the middle.
I personally would prefer to see change in a different direction. Rather than western activists taking more notice of Burma, (or any other humanitarian distaster), how about we make it so that the fate of Burmese people isn’t tied to the attentions of people half a world away? It seems the public can only budge western governments to act ethically so far, and that is really, really, not very far at all. But so much effort is focused on raising awareness in Western countries. I would like to see more of the millions spent on advocacy efforts targeted towards the people in some of Burma’s neighboring countries, since they are the ones with the most potential to influence some kind of change with the way things currently work.
I have never lived in a Karen village that did not have some padi land. In the two Karen villages I lived in, there were those with padi and those without padi land. Those without padi land planted hill rice. The hill rice never was sufficient for a years supply of food. Those without padi land would supplement their rice by helping with the planting and harvesting of the padi rice of others in exchange for a pre-arranged amount of harvested rice.
I should note that both villages were settled in the 20th century by Karen immigrants who originally hailed closer to the Burmese border. I would think that the potential for developing rice padi in these under-populated, and at the time rather remote foothill areas, was a prime motivator for making the move.
I’m glad to know I was not the last person to actually read Political Systems of Highland Burma in its entirety back when I was an undergraduate in the 1980s.
Take a human-human relationship analogy. Imagine if a hard working farmer (Burma) tried to talk to a perhaps superficial celebrity or vice versa (Australia); who would otherwise share few common interests at this particular point in time.
What would a farmer working 15 hours a day in the field, sowing crops, milking cows and building fences have to say to someone who spends time socializing in the relative luxury of cosmopolitanism?
Their respective self determination is quite different and it is overly arrogant for myself as westerner to condemn Burmese people to pity. It would be much the same as the celebrity judging the farmer to be a simpleton.
The victory of liberalism has imposed itself on the international system and it is now for Burmese to determine themselves within that framework; or reject it as the Junta is presently doing. If Burma wishes to participate in the international system then Burmese must reject the Junta somehow.
Therefore, this Melody Kemp is trying to fuse the otherwise contradictory words of empathy, ‘facing hell?’ and politics. Of course on a human level we here can empathize with socio-economic deficiency (because that’s here in our very own suburbs!) but volatile political situations are not our forte and nor should they be. Example is of course the greatest influence.
Is she just visiting too? Maybe Mother Melody has just seen the real world and is now projecting her former ignorance into a diatribe against coffee house discussions??
I was kind of waiting for Jon Fernquest to write something about Burma activists who don’t have a sufficiently nuanced approach towards Burma, because if he had, I’d be inclined, for once, to agree.
I’m not a peace activist, so sidiing with armed struggle has never been a major sticking point with me, but is she seriously suggesting that Australia and the US adopt that as policy? I’d think Bush’s excelllent adventure in Iraq might be grounds for caution there.
I’m also unclear if her support for ethnic minorities like the Karens goes as far as supporting an independent Karen State. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing that, but I can see why other individuals might think that is a bad idea.
Finally I don’t know about Brangelia, but the Angelina half of that duo has visited Karenni refugee camps along the Thai/Burmese border. At least that is what the Irrawaddy reported.
Hey Irish Dude, did you know that Thaksin’s assets are being frozen by the junta, and after the generals get their hands on Man C, the Blue’s uniform will be changed by decree to a new colour – Royal Yellow!
ThaiDude, I see that you have already made up your mind about which way you’ll vote. I would be interested to learn the reasons why you’ve decided to vote YES. Is it to get this whole mess over and done with, or is it because you think the new constitution is good enough, or some other reason(s)?
… for those in Thailand at the moment; do you think that the masses are receptive to a democratic constitution or are the people I see in photos simply reactionaries and rebellious?
Really we all need to get real and realize that the next most major issue for Thai politics is whether or not wearing a Manchester City shirt is now a sign of dissent!
TAXI DRIVER:
for your reply;
+ we can’t turn back the clock, but we don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past. : No problem with this. really agree. I, too, want to add that the way we can do in the future is to guard the system against ANYONE who abuses the democracy; practically and ideologically. This can be real when we have found the real fact / causes of ‘evil’ event of september 19.
I don’t beleive in sole / single factor indeed.
+The next test for us is the referendum. Will a ‘yes’ vote or a ‘no’ vote deliver a better long-term outcome for the development democracy & sanctity of the law and constitution in Thailand? : It’s all about the details/draft. But for sure my choice is YES,
I’d like to see if the new MPs would do sth when they found it ‘unaccepetable’ / ‘undemocracy’. It should be the elected-Mps ‘s job, rite? same as other things we always wish / expect they should do as a barometer of democracy; power of the people (‘s people).
-We have all indeed collectively arrived at a difficult crossroads.
I’m for the draft. At least let the MPs in the future correct it. IF we really have faith in elected-MPS, ones we keep considering them as an index of democracy.
Suriyasai, asked about the issue of using constitutional/legal means to act against Thaksin, simply said that those means were all blocked by Thaksin. Thammasat University students, though, indeed started a campaign to collect 50,000 signatures. Sonthi, Suriyasai & Co. just did not want to bother with the available formal channels.
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Raging argument about war in Burma
“Paul Collier, the director of the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University. … It was Collier who … pioneered a new and unsentimental approach to the study of civil wars, demonstrating that most rebels in sub-Saharan Africa are not heroic freedom fighters but self-interested brigands……There are, he suggests, four traps into which really poor countries tend to fall. The first is civil war. Nearly three-quarters of the people in the bottom billion … have recently been through, or are still in the midst of, a civil war. Such wars usually drag on for years and have economically disastrous consequences. … Unfortunately, … the poorer a country becomes, the more likely it is to succumb to civil war… And once you’ve had one civil war, you’re likely to have more…”
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2007/06/sachs-vs-easter.html
China’s probably providing in a way for Burma, what the west cannot:
“Fear of ‘neo-colonialism’ has made
European politicians wary of military intervention,
but security is the precondition for development
and often it cannot be provided internally. Africa
currently has many post-conflict situations. These
are inherently fragile. Despite the attention given
to political solutions, neither democratic
constitutions nor post-conflict elections reduce
the risk of renewed conflict. In the long term,
economic growth cumulates to make the society
safer, but during the first decade of peace an
external military presence or guarantee is the only
reliable option.”
E D I T O R I A L : R E T H I N K I N G A S S I S TA N C E
F O R A F R I C A Paul Collier
http://users.ox.ac.uk/~econpco/research/africa.htm
Upland insufficiency
[…] few days ago I reported on research (by Runako Samata) suggesting that the upland rice production of many Karen farmers […]
“Rural no more”
Here is an earlier Bangkok Post piece relevant to this topic:
Saturday June 23, 2007
CULTURAL CHANGE
Most Thais now live in cities, busy urban areas
Thailand is bracing for a ”third population explosion”, a term referring to a phenomenon in which more than half the country’s population, or about 32 million people, live in the cities and urban areas, a research study has found. The phenomenon has led to change in sexual behaviour, particularly in women in urban areas as many live more independently and are more open to sex, according to the study.
Pramote Prasartkul, a demographer attached to Mahidol University’s Institute for Population and Social Research, said the findings go against a traditional belief that most people live in rural areas. The trend, he said, is in line with a United Nations prediction that by 2008 more than half of the world’s population will live in urban areas.
According to Dr Pramote, the urban population covers people who live in cities without transferring their house registration, and commuters.
He said urban growth should raise alarm about potential impacts on various issues including environment, quality of living, and crime.
Researcher Orathai Rucharoenpornpanich, who studied impact of urban growth on sexual behaviour, said women who live in urban areas tend to be more open to sex. She said there is no significant difference between sexual behaviour of men in urban and rural areas.
About 40% of single women living in Bangkok have sexual relationships and the number is 1.2 times higher than in the urban areas in the provinces and 3.3 times higher than those in rural areas, Ms Orathai said.
The findings also show higher cohabitation and higher divorce rates among people living in cities, she added.
”For cohabitation, women in Bangkok are educated and independent, so they do not see the need to commit themselves to marriage. Having several boyfriends is fine and spices up their lives,” said Ms Orathai.
Her research work, Sex in the City, will be presented at a seminar, entitled Nakaratpiwat and Withee Cheewit Muang, to be held by the institute next Friday.
The researchers say the government should be aware of the change, and design a better HIV/Aids prevention scheme to cope.
”An HIV/Aids control unit exists only in Bangkok, but other big cities like Chiang Mai also need one,” said Apichart Chamrasritthirong.
He said a stiff conservative social order may no longer be appropriate, given the change.
”For instance, we may have to admit the fact that condoms should be handed out in education outlets to combat HIV/Aids,” he said.
Raging argument about war in Burma
Tara:
I personally would prefer to see change in a different direction. Rather than western activists taking more notice of Burma, (or any other humanitarian distaster), how about we make it so that the fate of Burmese people isn’t tied to the attentions of people half a world away?
Are you saying that presently the fate of Burmese people is in the hands of people half a world away?!
What I wrote above in #2 is quite conservative, but untill the world is less divided with borders (especially borders increasingly significant in seperating economically developing nations from developed), our opinions and the opinions of Western governments do not count an iota. The only opinions that count in this matter are those of the citizens of Myanmar.
A fairy story
[…] last month I wrote about a Thai fairy tale in which a wise king encourages rural people to return from the city by granting their village the […]
Raging argument about war in Burma
Someone should really do a PhD dissertation on China-Burma relations over the last few decades.
I know that Maung Aung Myoe at National University of Singapore is doing work in this area:
http://www.ari.nus.edu.sg/publication_details.asp?pubtypeid=WP&pubid=647
China’s presence in Burma is hardly new, as evidenced by the Anna Allot short story translation: The Python by NYI PU LAY (1988)
“Mandalay Burmese resent that their city, the former royal capital and a symbol of Burmese independence, is becoming a satellite town of Yunnan Province in China. Although it is never explicitly mentioned in the story that U Myo Khin, the house buyer, is Chinese (he is described as a recent arrival in Mandalay), it is made clear by the mention of his green ring (jade), his red car (good luck for the Chinese), his yellow skin, his heavy accent, and his struggle to read Burmese.”
http://www.ibiblio.org/obl/docs/inked-over-ripped%20-out.htm
Raging argument about war in Burma
“Those sitting sipping coffee in Western cities talking theoretically about peace and war, have little concept of what it is like to simply get up and face hell each day.”
Well, I have more grey hairs on my head from actually living in the place, supporting a family in the place, dealing with my mother-in-law’s terminal illness in the place, etc, etc…and have ranted and raved occasionally about the horrible situation in the place, but all of this grandma’s hysterics, and calling the place “hell” is hysterics:
“Every day, they simply flee death, cloaked in shells, bullets, bayonets, mines, knives, disease and starvation.”
Plus absurdities like this:
“…in Burma where women bear arms as a matter of necessity, and in continuity of historical lineage.”
I doubt if funding a myriad of ethnic insurgencies (check out the list of acronyms in Martin Smith’s or Bertil Lintner’s books) or direct military intervention like the Iraq fiasco under Bremer (where imperial hubris was disabused of the notion that other cultures are little puppets to be molded in one’s own neocon image) will work.
For reality, check out Larry Jagan (BBC) on Chinese presence in Burma:
http://www.readbangkokpost.com/business/burmamyanmar/burma_and_chinas_cold_embracec.php#article
And read the award winning book “China shakes the world”:
http://www.chforum.org/scenarios/new/china4.html
She’s right sadly about people being indifferent to the place, but that probably dates to before she was born.
Raging argument about war in Burma
Angelina has also visited Chin refugees in India. 😉 I find it difficult to sort out exactly what she’s calling for here, as well – if she’s criticizing peace activists who push for non-violent tactics in Burma, or peace activists who don’t even notice Burma and call for peace in other countries. I’ll agree to Aiontay’s point about activists needing a more nuanced approach to Burma. But the idea of armed struggle isn’t something I have a problem with either, and I can’t say that I’ve ever met a “Burma” activist of any nationality who thought that the armed groups should stick to non-violent tactics. Although, I have been frustrated by consistent portrayal of cease-fires as positive, when they are typically anything but for the civilians caught in the middle.
I personally would prefer to see change in a different direction. Rather than western activists taking more notice of Burma, (or any other humanitarian distaster), how about we make it so that the fate of Burmese people isn’t tied to the attentions of people half a world away? It seems the public can only budge western governments to act ethically so far, and that is really, really, not very far at all. But so much effort is focused on raising awareness in Western countries. I would like to see more of the millions spent on advocacy efforts targeted towards the people in some of Burma’s neighboring countries, since they are the ones with the most potential to influence some kind of change with the way things currently work.
Upland insufficiency
I have never lived in a Karen village that did not have some padi land. In the two Karen villages I lived in, there were those with padi and those without padi land. Those without padi land planted hill rice. The hill rice never was sufficient for a years supply of food. Those without padi land would supplement their rice by helping with the planting and harvesting of the padi rice of others in exchange for a pre-arranged amount of harvested rice.
I should note that both villages were settled in the 20th century by Karen immigrants who originally hailed closer to the Burmese border. I would think that the potential for developing rice padi in these under-populated, and at the time rather remote foothill areas, was a prime motivator for making the move.
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
Yellow on Mondays — Manchester on Tuesdays.
Leach revisited
I’m glad to know I was not the last person to actually read Political Systems of Highland Burma in its entirety back when I was an undergraduate in the 1980s.
Raging argument about war in Burma
Take a human-human relationship analogy. Imagine if a hard working farmer (Burma) tried to talk to a perhaps superficial celebrity or vice versa (Australia); who would otherwise share few common interests at this particular point in time.
What would a farmer working 15 hours a day in the field, sowing crops, milking cows and building fences have to say to someone who spends time socializing in the relative luxury of cosmopolitanism?
Their respective self determination is quite different and it is overly arrogant for myself as westerner to condemn Burmese people to pity. It would be much the same as the celebrity judging the farmer to be a simpleton.
The victory of liberalism has imposed itself on the international system and it is now for Burmese to determine themselves within that framework; or reject it as the Junta is presently doing. If Burma wishes to participate in the international system then Burmese must reject the Junta somehow.
Therefore, this Melody Kemp is trying to fuse the otherwise contradictory words of empathy, ‘facing hell?’ and politics. Of course on a human level we here can empathize with socio-economic deficiency (because that’s here in our very own suburbs!) but volatile political situations are not our forte and nor should they be. Example is of course the greatest influence.
Is she just visiting too? Maybe Mother Melody has just seen the real world and is now projecting her former ignorance into a diatribe against coffee house discussions??
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
http://www.evertonfc.com/assets/_files/images/sep_06/efc__1159630919_gallery3_sinclairvalente.jpg
I believe it was already written for here is a yellow Man City top from a couple of years ago!
Raging argument about war in Burma
I was kind of waiting for Jon Fernquest to write something about Burma activists who don’t have a sufficiently nuanced approach towards Burma, because if he had, I’d be inclined, for once, to agree.
I’m not a peace activist, so sidiing with armed struggle has never been a major sticking point with me, but is she seriously suggesting that Australia and the US adopt that as policy? I’d think Bush’s excelllent adventure in Iraq might be grounds for caution there.
I’m also unclear if her support for ethnic minorities like the Karens goes as far as supporting an independent Karen State. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing that, but I can see why other individuals might think that is a bad idea.
Finally I don’t know about Brangelia, but the Angelina half of that duo has visited Karenni refugee camps along the Thai/Burmese border. At least that is what the Irrawaddy reported.
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
Hey Irish Dude, did you know that Thaksin’s assets are being frozen by the junta, and after the generals get their hands on Man C, the Blue’s uniform will be changed by decree to a new colour – Royal Yellow!
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
ThaiDude, I see that you have already made up your mind about which way you’ll vote. I would be interested to learn the reasons why you’ve decided to vote YES. Is it to get this whole mess over and done with, or is it because you think the new constitution is good enough, or some other reason(s)?
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
… for those in Thailand at the moment; do you think that the masses are receptive to a democratic constitution or are the people I see in photos simply reactionaries and rebellious?
Really we all need to get real and realize that the next most major issue for Thai politics is whether or not wearing a Manchester City shirt is now a sign of dissent!
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
TAXI DRIVER:
for your reply;
+ we can’t turn back the clock, but we don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past. : No problem with this. really agree. I, too, want to add that the way we can do in the future is to guard the system against ANYONE who abuses the democracy; practically and ideologically. This can be real when we have found the real fact / causes of ‘evil’ event of september 19.
I don’t beleive in sole / single factor indeed.
+The next test for us is the referendum. Will a ‘yes’ vote or a ‘no’ vote deliver a better long-term outcome for the development democracy & sanctity of the law and constitution in Thailand? : It’s all about the details/draft. But for sure my choice is YES,
I’d like to see if the new MPs would do sth when they found it ‘unaccepetable’ / ‘undemocracy’. It should be the elected-Mps ‘s job, rite? same as other things we always wish / expect they should do as a barometer of democracy; power of the people (‘s people).
-We have all indeed collectively arrived at a difficult crossroads.
Sure!
Does Thailand need a senate?
I’m for the draft. At least let the MPs in the future correct it. IF we really have faith in elected-MPS, ones we keep considering them as an index of democracy.
Mapping the post-coup academic landscape
Suriyasai, asked about the issue of using constitutional/legal means to act against Thaksin, simply said that those means were all blocked by Thaksin. Thammasat University students, though, indeed started a campaign to collect 50,000 signatures. Sonthi, Suriyasai & Co. just did not want to bother with the available formal channels.