Comments

  1. roger p says:

    The script that you can see on the signs was developed by the prefectural government in the middle-1950s to be used as the official script in the area, reportedly as a means of improving education (unlike the old, the new Tai is a standard script), but you can tell that it was also aimed at isolating the Lue in China from Tai communities in Northern Thailand, Myanmar-Burma and Laos using the same script, as well as reducing the influence of the Sangha in Sipsong Panna. Nowadays, and in spite of a hiatus when the old script was made official again (between 1987 and 1996, I think), the new script is the only Tai script taught at schools, and only for a few hours a week during the first years of elementary school -in relation to transitional bilingual education, actually. Of course the Sangha, and music groups related to them, keep on using the old script, and this all partly expalins why the cultural situation among the Tai in Sipsong Panna is such a mess -a triumph for the CCP, on the other hand.

    The people at SIL have developed fonts for the use of the new script, I believe there is no further connection

  2. Republican says:

    Back to the question how to avoid bloodshed – THE most important problem now.

    More speculation. It seems to me that what the anti-CNS movement must do, and Thai Rak Thai as well, because the movement is effectively being led by Thai Rak Thai (but in the Thai way), is to make sure that if there is any violence it is very clear to everyone that the monarchy is directly implicated through its support for the CNS, the coup that brought it to power, and the attempt to destroy Thai Rak Thai. Because in the 21st century (as opposed to 1976), if the monarchy, through its association with the CNS, were clearly and directly implicated in a massacre of pro-democracy demonstrators (many of them Thai Rak Thai supporters), then that would mean the end forever of the monarchy’s political role – if not necessarily the end of the monarchy as an institution. I wonder whether this is the message that is being sent to the Palace. Then again, this would only work if the Palace people act rationally in the interests of their own self-preservation, which we know is not always the case, especially for certain rogue elements.

    The goal for Thai Rak Thai, and anyone who wants an efficient working liberal democracy in Thailand, is the permanent neutralization of the monarchy – which certainly doesn’t foreclude its transformation into a true Constitutional Monarchy. But this will take much work and superior political skills.

  3. Republican says:

    Reply to Srithanonchai: right. I think that Thai Rath is smart in its ability to smell the political wind and know when to jump. Thai Rath is an interesting case, because a large section of its “natural market” would be Thai Rak Thai voters, so the decision to go along with the coup must have been a difficult one – although made easier by the coup’s branding with the name of “he who can not be mentioned”. Matichon also looks like it is shifting. (They ran a very interesting cover on their weekly magazine with a picture of the King giving his 24 May speech. But the interesting thing about the picture was that it was framed by a television set – all you semiologists out there could interpret that in a number of ways, but I would think one of the meanings is that if the King wanted to give some “advice” (555) to the judges, then he hardly needs to appear on television). If this is right and Matichon is shifting then they will take a significant section of the middle class and “intellectuals” with them, important when push comes to shove.

    But Manager is a different story. They will fight to the death. The Dao Siam of the 21st century. (Perhaps SOAS can invite Sondhi back for a repeat lecture to explain his commitment to democracy – there should be no problem organizing a budget for the trip). As for The Nation, does anyone read it anymore?

  4. James Haughton says:

    Re 12: Agree with you 100% wordwallah, but there were so many things to dispute in what he said, and most of us were more interested in trying to pin him down about the monarchy than disputing his other claims.

  5. Republican says:

    I”m trying to guess Thai Rak Thai’s game plan. Pure speculation, but other people on this blog may be able to help correct me if I’m wrong. Or add bits that I’ve overlooked.

    As I’ve said all along, the most powerful political weapon that the anti-Thaksin forces have had on their side is lese majeste. The problem that Thaksin has had all along has been that he has not been able to reveal publicly the extent to which the monarchy (in McCargo’s “network monarchy” sense) has been intervening in, obstructing, and manipulating the political process. Because if he were to come out and say so he would (and indeed has been) accused of lese majeste. This must have been the source of great frustration for him. I sensed that with the “phu mi barami nok ratthathamanun” speech before the coup, which did in fact scare many people who might otherwise have supported Thai Rak Thai. So the problem for Thaksin was, how to communicate to his mass support base that the monarchy was initially obstructing and now actively working to destroy Thai Rak Thai, without alienating this mass base which is loyal to the throne – but only as a result of the propaganda and indoctrination that all Thais go through, and NOT out of a rational calculation of self-interest. So if you look at the hi-thaksin website it all looks very loyal to the monarchy, but in the Thai way, the reality is the opposite (note my Rule # 2 of Thai politics, the name and the thing – or representation and reality – are never the same).

    This is the communication problem that Thaksin had, which has been a severe handicap in the political struggle with the monarchy since late 2005, and which the anti-Thaksin movement exploited to the full. (Those who deserve the greatest censure are the anti-“rabob Thaksin” academics like Kasien et al, who, as Somsak has often pointed out, day in and day out hypocritically attacked Thaksin, who could not defend himself in public without committing lese majeste, but who were silent on the monarchy’s political manipulations. In effect they are responsible for doing the “discursive groundwork” that made the September 19 coup acceptable to the Bangkok middle-upper class, the media, even international observers – witness the spectacle of Thai Studies Centres around the world falling over themselves to invite Sondhi Limthongkul and other apologists to “explain” the coup. SOAS is still doing it 9 months later!)

    The way I think Thaksin has tried to solve this problem has been to “lure the tiger out of its lair”. That is, to draw the King out in public as much as possible (through the media propaganda, as well as personal interventions) in a way in which he is forced to associate himself with the CNS, which at first appeared as a saviour to the middle class, but which now looks like a very incompetent, rather ridiculous looking – though still dangerous – military dictatorship). The result has been exactly what Thaksin wanted: for the masses to see that the King is not only taking sides with the CNS, but is actively intervening to help destroy Thai Rak Thai. The coup de grace was the King’s 24 May speech to the judges. For the King it must have been a gamble, but one that has terribly backfired, because it has shown in public that the King supports the CNS dictatorship’s attempt to “execute” Thai Rak Thai. There will be huge political ramifications to the monarchy for this misjudgment. Meanwhile, Thaksin continues to demonstrate his formalistic loyalty to the throne.

  6. Thanks for these signs.
    They not only give you the sort of marginalia that make you actually been there, but they are also a great language learning tool. In fact, I was told this Southeast Language learning resources site is planning a repository of signs for just this purpose:

    http://sealang.net/

    Also I was struck by the Tai Lue script on one sign. It looks like the new revised script that I heard about (somehow associated with SIL), not the older script that you find on palm leaf manuscripts that you also find on contemporary music video CDs. I was wondering to what extent two orthographies are actually used in Sipsongpanna, the Tai Lue heartland?

  7. Srithanonchai says:

    “Thai Rath has now clearly shifted to a more anti-CNS stance.” >> If this is the case, it would be interesting indeed. I sensed that Thaksin would have a difficult time when Thai Rath slowly started to turn against him in its commentaries.

  8. nganadeeleg says:

    Wouldn’t my New Sakdina system be a whole lot easier?

    Andrew, that’s more complex than necessary.

    No need for university education – all that is required is some basic education about voting responsibilities to make it clear that the old practices of Vote buying, Corruption & Superstition belong in the past, and are not the way for the country to move forward.

    Alternatively, the politicians could just be bypassed, and fortune tellers elected instead.

  9. Republican says:

    One of the most interesting developments is the joining of parts of the former anti-Thaksin movement with the anti-CNS push now. Despite their broken hearts with the CNS I think that they remain as anti-Thaksin as ever. But what may be dawning on them is the simple fact that if you are to have “democracy” in Thailand then all groups will have to reckon with the mass support that Thai Rak Thai still enjoys. For the anti-Thaksin hardliners – the PAD especially, but also the Democrats – their problem is how to avoid being tarred for ever with the label of being apologists for royalist-military dictatorship (in my opinion Aphisit is “dead man walking”). A group calling itself the “Artists for Life” recently issued a “thalaengkan” which basically expressed Somsak’s “2 mai ao” position – “No to CNS and No to Thaksin” – and was heavily criticised on Prachatai (which is naturally sympathetic to the AfL. constituency). I wonder how At Carabao will jump; no doubt many people remember his “Thahan Phra Racha” song.

    Another of the very interesting aspects to this latest “anti-dictatorship” movement is that as far as I can see (tell me if I’m wrong), in the pro-democracy, anti-dictatorship discourse of the protesters the monarchy is absent. No pictures of the King and Queen to demonstrate loyalty. And oblique references to the monarchy, eg. the abuse hurled at Prem, are clearly representing the monarchy as an anti-democratic force.

    Yes, how to avoid bloodshed in the political transition that has to come is the most difficult problem. But when it’s a question of survival “those behind” the CNS have always demanded their blood sacrifice.

  10. roger p says:

    Andrew, I believe I get your point, but this is not all there is to it, right?

  11. Taxi Driver says:

    I hope that Republican’s #13’s prediction of the coming end of the CNS is correct (sooner rather than later and hopefully without any violence). I too am also beginning to sense a change: up till recently, those who are critical of the CNS are automatically (and unjustly) branded a Thaksinite; now one can criticize the CNS and even the yellowshirts are beginning to nod their heads with you!

  12. Republican says:

    Meanwhile a lot of the mass media is in denial. On tonight’s radio (Or. Sor. Mor. Thor.) program after program about the monarchy. ANU researchers into sufficiency economy will be excited to learn that SE has become famous internationally! It’s official. Apparently it is going to be used as an economic model for developing countries! No doubt the Royal (Thai) Embassies around the world have been very busy. Now there is one institution that is well overdue due for massive reform. No wonder they are so anti-Thaksin.

  13. Republican says:

    The end of the CNS is coming: It’s very difficult to predict how things are going to play out, and I could well be wrong, but I sense that the CNS is in its last days. Thai Rath has now clearly shifted to a more anti-CNS stance. It ran a sympathetic story on Sudarat today, about how she is being tailed by security. The story was also on the news tonight, one of the first sympathetic stories on a Thai Rak Thai member I think I’ve heard since Sept 19. I think that after the dissolution of the party the Thai Rak Thai voter base is enraged now. Every new attempt by the CNS to destroy the party is throwing fuel on the flames. The CNS has stupidly turned them into martyrs with the Constitutional Tribunal’s decision. The King’s speech the week before the decision supporting the judges may now prove to be a very bad decision tactically. Even the anti-Thaksin academics and NGO networks are also now becoming actively anti-CNS. It is likely that more CNS allies will start to abandon ship before it’s too late. Someone on Prachatai says they have 50 000 people at Sanam Luang now (can anyone confirm that?). Speakers are openly attacking Prem calling for him to be dismissed – the closest thing to a direct attack on the King. Wisa Khanthap is also there. It’s surprising how quickly the anti-CNS campaign has escalated, but also how openly Thai Rak Thai are leading it. PTV announced a couple of days ago that they were going to march on army headquarters on … 24 June! This is the code that they are using and I sense that more and more people are deciphering it. But they may not have to wait until the 24th, things are moving quickly now. The question is, will CNS (or other forces) provoke a confrontation and violence. Very likely I would think, because the CNS and its allies have everything to lose, and because, this is the way it always ends. In which case, what is Thai Rak Thai’s game plan?

  14. wordwallah says:

    Just a couple of quick, if likely to result in more heat than light, questions:

    How much validity is there in the proposition that the Thaksin regime was more corrupt than past governments in Thailand?

    And what is meant by the “more” in this common assertion? It involved more money? It was somehow more illegal? More ethically offensive? More necessary to bring about his ouster?

    Have past governments been as carefully scrutinized for corruption either during or following their terms of government, or is this a “first” in Thailand?

  15. crazyman says:

    Just a theory but if this was to succeed. Would this Hmong group want to share power with the majority or is there an hidden agenda. Think about it , the Hmong never had a country of their own.

  16. Sawarin says:

    Great news. This is history written from a collective memory of the victims. People have every right to know what happened in the past. Not only this book will help survivors to come to term with their loss but it’ll give the ending chapter, enabling them to move on. It seems like Cambodia is reaching maturity faster than her counterpart.

    Oct 76 generation should not give up their hope, one day when the Thai society is ready, there’ll be a good film which reflects on the incidence. Stay put and don’t get old too fast.

  17. Srithanonchai says:

    Andrew #6: Thanks for this piece of additional information. The fact itself and even more so his reason (if you heard correctly) are truly unbelievable.

  18. Reality says:

    SE, OTOP, Village fund– no matter the name they all aim to keep the poor poor. if you want to help people you educate them and teach them a skill that gives them money, power. the middle class in Thailand live well because they possess skills that led to good jobs. the average villager ends up in a factory or doing construction work, often having to leave their children back home with grandma. all of the time and money wasted on these schemes while children go through school and graduate without anything to help them find proper employment. this is the problem of thailand and the SE is going in the opposite direction.

    BTW, the king recently received a brand new Boeing 737 for his personal use. how does that fit into the SE?

  19. jonfernquest says:

    Thanks for this interesting summary. I would certainly agree with this statement:

    “questioners took up this issue, inviting him to reflect on the role of the monarch…Surin asserted that this discussion did take place in Thailand though perhaps in rather different terms to the sometimes ”arrogant” discussion in the west (typified by Handley’s contribution). Surin suggested that there is a lack of foreign appreciation of the extent to which the king represents **a sacred moral force in Thai society**.”

    It will be interesting to see an economist enter the ongoing debate evaluate Thaksinomics. One already has:

    http://www.readbangkokpost.com/business/shin_sale_and_coup/economic_damage_control_how_to.php

  20. Vichai N says:

    It is not that the Thai masses are uneducated about what their vote represents. On the contrary the Thai masses had been taught over the years that their vote represent immediate social benefits immediately cashable at every election . . and villagers who won’t go along with the practice are ridiculted or intimidated.

    Patronage is a pernicious evil that corrupts and impoverished the very poor being patronized.

    Jail those who sell their votes . . . jail the whole vilate and kamnan who perpetuates the vote buying practice! Once these villagers learn that selling vote is a felony, they would learn their lesson that their patrons are in fact criminals to be avoided at all cost.