Paul – you should write this up. There are plenty of places with good long term land cover and rainfall data and I can’t recall too many studies that so confidently link logging with reduced rainfall. Would be nice to see a detailed case study.
Logging does cause reduced rainfall and riverflow, but the real effect is felt 50 to 100 years later, after governments, NGO reports, and the actions of our granparents have been forgotten. The short term effects can include significant increases in flow from run-off, and subsequent reduction in waterflows as replanted forests soak up rain, so it is easy to make convincing reports that show beneficial effects of logging. But, to rephrase an old saying: “we are here for a long time, not a good time” and our children will know it. I grew up in an area of Victoria that had the tallest trees in the world, mountain ash up to 450 feet, all cut down to create suburban fencing for Melbourne (!!) in the 1880s. In the century that followed rainfall dropped from 86 inches a year to now less than 40, specifically in that area. No “literature seach” conducted within a generation of that logging would have revealed that reality.
I’m so pleased that the posting of “Coup for the Rich” has generated so much discussion. I think that it is time to wrap up this thread, and I encourage New Mandala contributors to turn to some other issues and events being raised on this blog.
Jufer was probably one of the many maladjusted chronic alcoholics that come to Thailand to die. Calling him a jerk actually implies that he had control over what he did.
>It was an unnecessary charge, an outrageous sentence and the >fallout has been damaging for all concerned.
The Thais got to defend HMK and then feel good when HMK showed mercy, but everyone knew that Jufer was going to be pardoned, given what HMK had said before, making the whole affair kind of meaningless, except it provoked some westerners to make those hateful You Tube postings and then the Thais got angry and blocked You Tube, all based on abstract principles like lese majeste and protecting even hateful free speech. Both sides shoul have backed down.
I have no agenda to pursue here, but am left (by both this post and the paper) feeling that the total situation is not adequately addressed here. No ‘total situation’ could be addressed of course, but there are deeply connected issues which seem left out. I am not a hydrologist, so please forgive the naive questions: First, in what way is the dry season water flow being maintained or increased, if not in forest systems? What are the impacts of this mode of retention and flow? And finally, is there a connection between these flows and soil erosion?
Thanks for your continued work on these important water and land issues. It is indeed vital that uplanders stop being blamed for, well, everything relating to the environment.
I have followed up a bit on tropical forest hydrology and discovered that you have not, in fact, “cherrypicked” your sources but have fairly reported the consensus among the people who spend their time earnestly studying the subject.
So I am chastened and apologize for having assumed the worst case concerning your motivation.
I still love forests and hope they return to Thailand. I am confident that if they do we will all appreciate their value and therefore approve their price.
I assume that Switzerland’s measured response at the time was because it knew how this was going to go down in the end. I think that the Junta and HM the King were not damaged though. The Junta looks tough and HM looks generous. Jufer looks like a jerk.
[…] a couple of New Mandala readers have noted in their comments, Swiss graffitist Oliver Jufer has received a royal pardon. It was an unnecessary charge, an outrageous sentence and the fallout […]
I read this news from the BBC just over half an hour ago. Got to admit this came as a surprise. Never expected the pardon would arrive this soon. Interesting, nonetheless.
ps. any interesting note on the Thai juridicial system? (the man was recently convicted of 10 year imprisonment, and theoretically, he would have to fight two further courts).
>All too often upland farmers are blamed for destroying lowland >water supplies.
Thanks for injecting a bit of rationality into an area that needs it.
Lieberman in Strange parallels covers the debate over climate factors for much earlier periods. I think your study clearly demonstrates the need for hard science to counterbalance the “discourse” issues that have come to dominate intellectual bandwidth in social science / historical research recently.
Chiang Mai (Agencies) – His Majesty the King has pardoned the Swiss man convicted last month of lese majeste for spray-painting portraits on the monarch.
“His Majesty in his kindness has granted him a pardon and he has been transferred from prison and is in the process of being deported from the country,” said Chiang Mai Pol Col Prachuab Wongsuk.
Oliver Rudolf Jufer, 57, was convicted last month of lese majeste and sentenced to 10 years in prison.
A resident of Thailand, Jufer painted over the posters last year, supposedly while he was drunk.
John – it’s not “pure speculation” but the informed conclusion from many respected hydrological studies. Read the literature. There are lots of good reasons for loving forests, but the “catchment sponge” is not one of them.
Hydrological studies and modelling exercises suggest that while clearing of forest for agriculture may change the pattern of stream flow, the absolute level of dry season flow does not necessarily decline and it may increase.
Apologies again for misformatting, there’s no way to preview a post on this site, is there? The above is a quote from the author and not mine.
This article on forests seemed alredy to know the answer it wanted : forests are not effective buffers of rainfall.
It concludes
Numerous international hydrological studies, and some studies undertaken in Thailand, show that forest clearing has the effect of increasing annual stream flow, given that clearing forest lowers the percentage of rainfall that is lost to the atmosphere in the form of ET [evapotranspiration].
and its hypothesizes
Hydrological studies and modelling exercises suggest that while clearing of forest for agriculture may change the pattern of stream flow, the absolute level of dry season flow does not necessarily decline and it may increase.
The first is a statement of the obvious. If you cut down all the trees the water they used to transpire will then flood out into the water courses. This will necesarily take place when it rains, that is in the rainy season when there is “too much” rain. Chiang Mai especially seems to be illustrating that point over the past few rainy seasons.
The second point is pure speculation. The bit about dry season runoff (“it may increase”) seems to be the result of imagining that ET will be reduced in a linear fashion year round after the loss of the forest. I look at the forests in the dry season, noting that many trees have lost their leaves and that others’ leaves are dusty, inefficient transpiration agents, and wonder if forest transpiration doesn’t shut down in the tropical dry season as it does in the temperate cold season.
Too, the bit refuting the “mi pa, mi fon”, seems especially mean-spirited, as so much of the criticism of Thailand and of the Thai does on this site. The very high rates of ET during the rainy season seem sure to increase the relative humidity in the areas adjoining forests and the resultant fogs and secondary rainfall may well be that to which the local wisdom refers. The rains that are transpired are not lost to outer space.
I admit that I love forests, that I love orchids, that I love wood, that I love shady streams, that I am prejudiced in a direction diametrically opposed to the author’s and to his survey of the literature for proof of his point.
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Wishful thinking about forests and water
Paul – you should write this up. There are plenty of places with good long term land cover and rainfall data and I can’t recall too many studies that so confidently link logging with reduced rainfall. Would be nice to see a detailed case study.
Wishful thinking about forests and water
Logging does cause reduced rainfall and riverflow, but the real effect is felt 50 to 100 years later, after governments, NGO reports, and the actions of our granparents have been forgotten. The short term effects can include significant increases in flow from run-off, and subsequent reduction in waterflows as replanted forests soak up rain, so it is easy to make convincing reports that show beneficial effects of logging. But, to rephrase an old saying: “we are here for a long time, not a good time” and our children will know it. I grew up in an area of Victoria that had the tallest trees in the world, mountain ash up to 450 feet, all cut down to create suburban fencing for Melbourne (!!) in the 1880s. In the century that followed rainfall dropped from 86 inches a year to now less than 40, specifically in that area. No “literature seach” conducted within a generation of that logging would have revealed that reality.
Offending the mainstream
I’m so pleased that the posting of “Coup for the Rich” has generated so much discussion. I think that it is time to wrap up this thread, and I encourage New Mandala contributors to turn to some other issues and events being raised on this blog.
Pardon me, Jufer free
anon: spot on. oh well, I always said Thailand is a kingdom, time for legal academics/ professionals to agree.
Pardon me, Jufer free
> Jufer looks like a jerk.
Jufer was probably one of the many maladjusted chronic alcoholics that come to Thailand to die. Calling him a jerk actually implies that he had control over what he did.
>It was an unnecessary charge, an outrageous sentence and the >fallout has been damaging for all concerned.
The Thais got to defend HMK and then feel good when HMK showed mercy, but everyone knew that Jufer was going to be pardoned, given what HMK had said before, making the whole affair kind of meaningless, except it provoked some westerners to make those hateful You Tube postings and then the Thais got angry and blocked You Tube, all based on abstract principles like lese majeste and protecting even hateful free speech. Both sides shoul have backed down.
Lèse majesté charges in Chiang Mai
This pardon is just the comeback of reason…
Wishful thinking about forests and water
[…] read Andrew Walker’s post “Wishful Thinking About Forests and Water” over at the excellent New Mandala […]
Pardon me, Jufer free
WTF? He didn’t even go through the appeals process!
Wishful thinking about forests and water
I have no agenda to pursue here, but am left (by both this post and the paper) feeling that the total situation is not adequately addressed here. No ‘total situation’ could be addressed of course, but there are deeply connected issues which seem left out. I am not a hydrologist, so please forgive the naive questions: First, in what way is the dry season water flow being maintained or increased, if not in forest systems? What are the impacts of this mode of retention and flow? And finally, is there a connection between these flows and soil erosion?
Thanks for your continued work on these important water and land issues. It is indeed vital that uplanders stop being blamed for, well, everything relating to the environment.
Wishful thinking about forests and water
I have followed up a bit on tropical forest hydrology and discovered that you have not, in fact, “cherrypicked” your sources but have fairly reported the consensus among the people who spend their time earnestly studying the subject.
So I am chastened and apologize for having assumed the worst case concerning your motivation.
I still love forests and hope they return to Thailand. I am confident that if they do we will all appreciate their value and therefore approve their price.
Pardon me, Jufer free
I assume that Switzerland’s measured response at the time was because it knew how this was going to go down in the end. I think that the Junta and HM the King were not damaged though. The Junta looks tough and HM looks generous. Jufer looks like a jerk.
Oliver Jufer, royal graffiti and global news
[…] a couple of New Mandala readers have noted in their comments, Swiss graffitist Oliver Jufer has received a royal pardon. It was an unnecessary charge, an outrageous sentence and the fallout […]
Lèse majesté charges in Chiang Mai
Srithanonchai:
I read this news from the BBC just over half an hour ago. Got to admit this came as a surprise. Never expected the pardon would arrive this soon. Interesting, nonetheless.
ps. any interesting note on the Thai juridicial system? (the man was recently convicted of 10 year imprisonment, and theoretically, he would have to fight two further courts).
Wishful thinking about forests and water
>All too often upland farmers are blamed for destroying lowland >water supplies.
Thanks for injecting a bit of rationality into an area that needs it.
Lieberman in Strange parallels covers the debate over climate factors for much earlier periods. I think your study clearly demonstrates the need for hard science to counterbalance the “discourse” issues that have come to dominate intellectual bandwidth in social science / historical research recently.
Lèse majesté charges in Chiang Mai
King pardons Jufer:
King pardons Swiss man of lese majeste
Chiang Mai (Agencies) – His Majesty the King has pardoned the Swiss man convicted last month of lese majeste for spray-painting portraits on the monarch.
“His Majesty in his kindness has granted him a pardon and he has been transferred from prison and is in the process of being deported from the country,” said Chiang Mai Pol Col Prachuab Wongsuk.
Oliver Rudolf Jufer, 57, was convicted last month of lese majeste and sentenced to 10 years in prison.
A resident of Thailand, Jufer painted over the posters last year, supposedly while he was drunk.
Bangkok Post, online, 12 April 2007
The regime’s royal ridicule
[…] New Mandala […]
Wishful thinking about forests and water
John – it’s not “pure speculation” but the informed conclusion from many respected hydrological studies. Read the literature. There are lots of good reasons for loving forests, but the “catchment sponge” is not one of them.
Wishful thinking about forests and water
and its hypothesizes
Apologies again for misformatting, there’s no way to preview a post on this site, is there? The above is a quote from the author and not mine.
Wishful thinking about forests and water
This article on forests seemed alredy to know the answer it wanted : forests are not effective buffers of rainfall.
It concludes
and its hypothesizes
Hydrological studies and modelling exercises suggest that while clearing of forest for agriculture may change the pattern of stream flow, the absolute level of dry season flow does not necessarily decline and it may increase.
The first is a statement of the obvious. If you cut down all the trees the water they used to transpire will then flood out into the water courses. This will necesarily take place when it rains, that is in the rainy season when there is “too much” rain. Chiang Mai especially seems to be illustrating that point over the past few rainy seasons.
The second point is pure speculation. The bit about dry season runoff (“it may increase”) seems to be the result of imagining that ET will be reduced in a linear fashion year round after the loss of the forest. I look at the forests in the dry season, noting that many trees have lost their leaves and that others’ leaves are dusty, inefficient transpiration agents, and wonder if forest transpiration doesn’t shut down in the tropical dry season as it does in the temperate cold season.
Too, the bit refuting the “mi pa, mi fon”, seems especially mean-spirited, as so much of the criticism of Thailand and of the Thai does on this site. The very high rates of ET during the rainy season seem sure to increase the relative humidity in the areas adjoining forests and the resultant fogs and secondary rainfall may well be that to which the local wisdom refers. The rains that are transpired are not lost to outer space.
I admit that I love forests, that I love orchids, that I love wood, that I love shady streams, that I am prejudiced in a direction diametrically opposed to the author’s and to his survey of the literature for proof of his point.
Wishful thinking about forests and water
Well, if you already ‘know’ the answer you want…
Lets cut down forests – it will improve the dry season flow.