Through articles like this we’re starting to see some deeper and probably more accurate analysis than the trite and rather old fashioned “the peasants are revolting” discourse.
The big question is the extent to which the majority population can organise (or have already organised) around a coherent strategy with agreed objectives. Allied to this is the question whether the red shirts are a true groundswell movement or are they, as many in Bangkok believe, a largely Thaksin-funded phenomenon that will wither and die once he’s gone?
The ANC in South Africa, as one example, was highly successful in their famous strategy of “make Apartheid ungovernable” largely through the massive organisational ability of COSATU, the country’s largest union and astute union leader Cyril Ramaphosa (now one of South Africa’s richest capitalists). I don’t see anything resembling COSATU or Ramaphosa in Thailand, yet. Organisation in Thailand is limited to tactical mass rallies, fuelled by patronage.
Every country has its unique dynamics and circumstances and articles like this one are what’s required if we’re to understand Thailand beyond the rather trite “phrai” versus “smart” discourse.
Dear Neutral Bystander, I don’t think your opinion and simpathy for Prabowo could be truly sigested and accepted by the bereaved family of the activists he abducted and killed in ’98. Don’t judge your opinion solely on the above article but by accepting the historical facts that really happened in Indonesia.
Mice invitation “Come see” rather than “you never say anything unless you live here”. After all just about every thing happening in Burma, your Myanmar, is thoroughly planed and orchestrated by people who has never even heard of the name until few years back and has no pan to see or do anything with it. Eg. who do you think plan the ASEAN Lan Ma Gyi or even “Ta Nyin tha dar” when it was build? Believe me. 2007 monks walking and chanting around the country was direct result of Gene Sharp’s book “From Dictatorship to Democracy” and classes steering latent force for their {his} own end while Gene has never ever been to Burma itself except the borders where he and Helvey organised young people including monks brain washing sessions since 1996. Now there are more numerous brain washing sessions in even more guises and more “Young and progressive” Burmese happily participating with funding which somehow can be traced back to CIA (Eg. National Endowment For Democracy, International Republican Institute, need more cute names?) or some Japanese gambling outfit like Sasakawa.
And unfortunately Wirathu is a real monk. From Masoeyein, no less. With hordes of followers all real monks. And monk-hood itself is replete with young men with little education, or wide world outlook and restless with nothing much to do. And again real people do take part in Kalar bashing as amply sen in videos during Meikhtila. IF one really wants to address the issues, one must start with raw truths however painful they are.
Most of all, the current prevailing Burmese people’s concept of democracy being blind worship of “A May Suu” ignores the staring fact of the sad plight of Latpadaung farmers. It would be even worse if one thinks they can sacrifice those poor people as she does as it will be yourself next on the line. Blind worship of Aung San Suu kyi- so self-satisfying it may be- has nothing whatsoever to do with democracy which by the way is not seen anywhere in this world.
Actually with all so called credible surveyors publishing the quick count, frankly I almost bought it until jokowi’s claim victory just one hour after the votes are closed. One question you should ask, people stop voting at 13.00 Jakarta time, why on earth Jokowi is in a rush to claim victory if they are so sure to be the winner, one theory is, to create public opinion thus will have full back up by the people, I think this is inhuman to use the people as their bumper, plus the statement from Jokowi’s side, they can only be defeated if they are cheated, wow, do you see a pattern here? Jokowi’s side is the one who claim the victory first, because of this move Prabowo is forced to do the same., Jokowi’s surveyors made quick count mistakes before in the election of the governor of east java and Bali. So do your own analysis, Why the democrats Party joined Prabowo in the last minute? is it because they know that Prabowo is already leading in the polls? and why the Police report (unpublished) says that Prabowo is leading by 3 percent in their real count?
[…] his opponent former special forces commander Prabowo Subianto has yet to concede, barring fraud during the counting or coup, Jokowi will take the oath of office in October. Jokowi campaigned as a reformer, and […]
Don’t think too much.
All riots are handled by military governments.
Real citizens in Mandalay did’t participate in violation against Muslims.
That fucking monk Wirathu is not the real monk.
Here,in Myanmar,all we want is true democracy.All are struggling for true democracy.Don’t post about Myanmar news,if you are in foreign.Come see.
It’s simple.some discussed about things that matter,some kid was just flamming others.right.so this election was about choosing the best,from the worsts,they said.I often repeat this sentence lately until it actually got stucked in my peasant brain.it’s always hard,when we have to choose between something we like to believe and something we know we already believe.a general and a mayor treats everything way too differently.
When a general slides in trias politica,everything will act as daily reports and daunting tasks.elites will remain,supporting the general like they always did to previous regimes.first to second year is about pleasing people as in people of the nation.then pleasing elites.but a general will always be a general,with missions,which have to be accomplished.whether with elites and people or not.
While a good mayor,when he enters as executive,he thinks about system,as efficient as possible.first and second year the mayor will be focusing on social obstacle too,but more like a double-edged sword.finding the right platform for different problem is how he sets the intro.dealing with old families that once ruled will be a real test,not to mention the military faction,which is always standing at different pole with the people.and repairing thing by thing is what people really expect from a mayor,therefore he must swing that double-edged sword at any time.serving all factions.
Sorry for my poor written correspondence,
Ps: im still researching,while the election is gone ):
[…] again exceeded 70 percent. This is of particular relevance given that Prabowo has questioned the merits of direct elections. Turnout might have been even higher had there not been administrative problems, notably overseas […]
I remembered our founding father once said, “Choose a leader that is hated by foreigners”. I mean, what is your real intention? Trying to save us? You’ve got to be kidding me. Who has been stealing our gold, oil, gas, etc? Prabowo??? Mind your own business.
Amazing how you foreigners try to interfere with our politics with your dull, biased, and unreliable opinion. This is ‘devide et impera’. You try to create chaos in our country. How can you say Jokowi is a clear winner when he claimed it based on unfinished quick count (70% at the time). Do you know that quick counts are based merely on SAMPLES? In 2004, Megawati claimed, based on quick counts, that she won the vote slightly from SBY. Guess what, she lost it with a significant margin. Saiful Mujani, one of the quick counts provider, has admitted that they used money to buy people’s votes, and held some seminars to spread lies abt Prabowo. Still believing they’re neutral and credible?
this is the way external and other country provocate us. i personally support Jokowi, but i’m definitely agains’t the way other country destroy the united of Indonesia. even if its true, we shall be not provocated and keep calm. let’s monitoring and be a smart citizen.
and for the next President, pay attention for your country’s education and economic so Indonesian will grow and more educated in filtering information
When 8 institutions came within 2% difference, then there are 4 institutions whose numbers are different from the first group by up to 6% (and 2% within each other)… one of those groups are doing it wrong. Now you just have to find out which group has the most independent / neutral institutions.
That’s just the simple logic side of it, don’t make me break down the algebra.
How does the author explain Prabowo’s claim that he can show 16 quick counts that declare him the winner, not just the four mentioned in this article?
I believe the 16 surveys are: PDB, IDM, LSJ, LSN, Evello, IRC, Vox, OSI, INES, ISI, Polcomm, Puskaptis, Median, FEM-IPB, Forima, and Recto-verso. ((I saw these on a graphic dated July 5 in which they all predicted Prabowo would win; I assume these are the 16 surveys Prabowo mentions.))
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Political economy of Thai political pathologies
Through articles like this we’re starting to see some deeper and probably more accurate analysis than the trite and rather old fashioned “the peasants are revolting” discourse.
The big question is the extent to which the majority population can organise (or have already organised) around a coherent strategy with agreed objectives. Allied to this is the question whether the red shirts are a true groundswell movement or are they, as many in Bangkok believe, a largely Thaksin-funded phenomenon that will wither and die once he’s gone?
The ANC in South Africa, as one example, was highly successful in their famous strategy of “make Apartheid ungovernable” largely through the massive organisational ability of COSATU, the country’s largest union and astute union leader Cyril Ramaphosa (now one of South Africa’s richest capitalists). I don’t see anything resembling COSATU or Ramaphosa in Thailand, yet. Organisation in Thailand is limited to tactical mass rallies, fuelled by patronage.
Every country has its unique dynamics and circumstances and articles like this one are what’s required if we’re to understand Thailand beyond the rather trite “phrai” versus “smart” discourse.
Prabowo’s game plan
The Indonesian version is now online. It is available here.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
Prabowo’s game plan
Dear Neutral Bystander, I don’t think your opinion and simpathy for Prabowo could be truly sigested and accepted by the bereaved family of the activists he abducted and killed in ’98. Don’t judge your opinion solely on the above article but by accepting the historical facts that really happened in Indonesia.
Field notes on the Jokowi campaign
[…] ran a stunningly poor and unfocused campaign long on personality and short on policy specifics. Even worse, as the Prabowo threat increased, […]
Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
[…] Suharto’s former son-in-law, spent parts of the campaign disparaging the idea of ‘one person, one vote,’ and called into question whether […]
Prabowo’s game plan
What does that got to do with the professionalism of his tested agency? Look at the track record before you rush to judgement.
Rumour, religion and riots in Mandalay
Mice invitation “Come see” rather than “you never say anything unless you live here”. After all just about every thing happening in Burma, your Myanmar, is thoroughly planed and orchestrated by people who has never even heard of the name until few years back and has no pan to see or do anything with it. Eg. who do you think plan the ASEAN Lan Ma Gyi or even “Ta Nyin tha dar” when it was build? Believe me. 2007 monks walking and chanting around the country was direct result of Gene Sharp’s book “From Dictatorship to Democracy” and classes steering latent force for their {his} own end while Gene has never ever been to Burma itself except the borders where he and Helvey organised young people including monks brain washing sessions since 1996. Now there are more numerous brain washing sessions in even more guises and more “Young and progressive” Burmese happily participating with funding which somehow can be traced back to CIA (Eg. National Endowment For Democracy, International Republican Institute, need more cute names?) or some Japanese gambling outfit like Sasakawa.
And unfortunately Wirathu is a real monk. From Masoeyein, no less. With hordes of followers all real monks. And monk-hood itself is replete with young men with little education, or wide world outlook and restless with nothing much to do. And again real people do take part in Kalar bashing as amply sen in videos during Meikhtila. IF one really wants to address the issues, one must start with raw truths however painful they are.
Most of all, the current prevailing Burmese people’s concept of democracy being blind worship of “A May Suu” ignores the staring fact of the sad plight of Latpadaung farmers. It would be even worse if one thinks they can sacrifice those poor people as she does as it will be yourself next on the line. Blind worship of Aung San Suu kyi- so self-satisfying it may be- has nothing whatsoever to do with democracy which by the way is not seen anywhere in this world.
Prabowo’s game plan
Actually with all so called credible surveyors publishing the quick count, frankly I almost bought it until jokowi’s claim victory just one hour after the votes are closed. One question you should ask, people stop voting at 13.00 Jakarta time, why on earth Jokowi is in a rush to claim victory if they are so sure to be the winner, one theory is, to create public opinion thus will have full back up by the people, I think this is inhuman to use the people as their bumper, plus the statement from Jokowi’s side, they can only be defeated if they are cheated, wow, do you see a pattern here? Jokowi’s side is the one who claim the victory first, because of this move Prabowo is forced to do the same., Jokowi’s surveyors made quick count mistakes before in the election of the governor of east java and Bali. So do your own analysis, Why the democrats Party joined Prabowo in the last minute? is it because they know that Prabowo is already leading in the polls? and why the Police report (unpublished) says that Prabowo is leading by 3 percent in their real count?
Prabowo’s game plan
Could you please elaborate further, what the new, revised UU MD3 actually means for current Indonesia’s political system?
Prabowo’s game plan
[…] his opponent former special forces commander Prabowo Subianto has yet to concede, barring fraud during the counting or coup, Jokowi will take the oath of office in October. Jokowi campaigned as a reformer, and […]
Rumour, religion and riots in Mandalay
Don’t think too much.
All riots are handled by military governments.
Real citizens in Mandalay did’t participate in violation against Muslims.
That fucking monk Wirathu is not the real monk.
Here,in Myanmar,all we want is true democracy.All are struggling for true democracy.Don’t post about Myanmar news,if you are in foreign.Come see.
President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
It’s simple.some discussed about things that matter,some kid was just flamming others.right.so this election was about choosing the best,from the worsts,they said.I often repeat this sentence lately until it actually got stucked in my peasant brain.it’s always hard,when we have to choose between something we like to believe and something we know we already believe.a general and a mayor treats everything way too differently.
When a general slides in trias politica,everything will act as daily reports and daunting tasks.elites will remain,supporting the general like they always did to previous regimes.first to second year is about pleasing people as in people of the nation.then pleasing elites.but a general will always be a general,with missions,which have to be accomplished.whether with elites and people or not.
While a good mayor,when he enters as executive,he thinks about system,as efficient as possible.first and second year the mayor will be focusing on social obstacle too,but more like a double-edged sword.finding the right platform for different problem is how he sets the intro.dealing with old families that once ruled will be a real test,not to mention the military faction,which is always standing at different pole with the people.and repairing thing by thing is what people really expect from a mayor,therefore he must swing that double-edged sword at any time.serving all factions.
Sorry for my poor written correspondence,
Ps: im still researching,while the election is gone ):
Don’t be fooled – Prabowo (still) wants to get rid of direct presidential elections
[…] again exceeded 70 percent. This is of particular relevance given that Prabowo has questioned the merits of direct elections. Turnout might have been even higher had there not been administrative problems, notably overseas […]
Prabowo’s game plan
Don’t worry, opportunist party such as Golkar and PPP will definitely change their side if Jokowi win the election.
Prabowo’s game plan
I just wish all the good and peaceful, so I can continue to live without worry..
nothing chance who ever be the ……….
Prabowo’s game plan
I remembered our founding father once said, “Choose a leader that is hated by foreigners”. I mean, what is your real intention? Trying to save us? You’ve got to be kidding me. Who has been stealing our gold, oil, gas, etc? Prabowo??? Mind your own business.
Prabowo’s game plan
Amazing how you foreigners try to interfere with our politics with your dull, biased, and unreliable opinion. This is ‘devide et impera’. You try to create chaos in our country. How can you say Jokowi is a clear winner when he claimed it based on unfinished quick count (70% at the time). Do you know that quick counts are based merely on SAMPLES? In 2004, Megawati claimed, based on quick counts, that she won the vote slightly from SBY. Guess what, she lost it with a significant margin. Saiful Mujani, one of the quick counts provider, has admitted that they used money to buy people’s votes, and held some seminars to spread lies abt Prabowo. Still believing they’re neutral and credible?
Prabowo’s game plan
this is the way external and other country provocate us. i personally support Jokowi, but i’m definitely agains’t the way other country destroy the united of Indonesia. even if its true, we shall be not provocated and keep calm. let’s monitoring and be a smart citizen.
and for the next President, pay attention for your country’s education and economic so Indonesian will grow and more educated in filtering information
Prabowo’s game plan
When 8 institutions came within 2% difference, then there are 4 institutions whose numbers are different from the first group by up to 6% (and 2% within each other)… one of those groups are doing it wrong. Now you just have to find out which group has the most independent / neutral institutions.
That’s just the simple logic side of it, don’t make me break down the algebra.
How to read a quick count
How does the author explain Prabowo’s claim that he can show 16 quick counts that declare him the winner, not just the four mentioned in this article?
I believe the 16 surveys are: PDB, IDM, LSJ, LSN, Evello, IRC, Vox, OSI, INES, ISI, Polcomm, Puskaptis, Median, FEM-IPB, Forima, and Recto-verso. ((I saw these on a graphic dated July 5 in which they all predicted Prabowo would win; I assume these are the 16 surveys Prabowo mentions.))