every normal people who ever learned about statistics should know what it means.
but this doesn’t include those who starved for power for nearly 10 years (&invested a lot of money on it)…
it’s not really surprising as he was part of intelligent body from US in the past.
he’s smarter than half (or at least 47%) of Indonesian population & he knew how’s things work here….. separatism by religious issues, blablabla
Apropos of the author, we should all take a note of the fact that Burhanuddin Muhtadi, who was all over the news earlier threatening the KPU as liars if Jokowi didn’t win, is a Phd student of Marcus Mietzner at ANU.
@shutthehellup
First of all, I like reading your comment. It was a neutral one, not siding on both sides. There are some things I’d really like to add and comment. Therefore if I may, I’d like to quote back some of your statements.
1. “The circulating fear at the moment, including those in the article, stems from paranoia. That Prabowo cannot be trusted. Nobody talked about whether his followers can be trusted. It is as if over sixty million Indonesians suddenly become untrustworthy. No so-called expert have faith that the voters’ cooler heads will prevail. They are rational people just like Jokowi’s supporters are rational people. They want their chosen candidate to win, but NOT at any price. Believe it or not but since 2004, no sane Indonesian want to destabilize their country over an election, or worse, a stupid poll.”
The paranoia, that Prabowo can’t be trusted, is justified. Try looking back on his military background, the rioting in 1998, kidnapping and human rights violations he conducted, all the cases which involved him are still floating in the court until today. I’m not saying he’s guilty, the courts have no balls to touch the case, but it just amazes me how someone with unfinished court business can be this close to presidential chair. And how can the people not be paranoia? They have every rights to be.
And indeed, the voters of both sides are rational, These people want to give their best for our beloved country Indonesia. They are not stupid, but when both candidates gave beautiful and convincing presentation, or are being promised with fame/money/prosperity, being rational is not an option, they couldn’t help but finally take a side and buy what is being sold, only to get dissapointment because the elected person didn’t do things as he promised. This must be the reason of you being GOLPUT, you stated it so, because you believe they aren’t worthy, they can’t deliver what they promised.
2. “In fact, the only camp that has mobilized large number of people to go to the streets immediately after the election is the Jokowi camp! Sure, they called it a celebration, but others can easily say that it is intimidation. See? It’s in how you manage your perception and faith on the people.”
I must say I also hate and loathe Megawati for declaring that her side has won, while it is still a quick poll. Which caused many chained reactions. And how come she was the one declaring it? It is because of such actions of her that made Jokowi being branded as a puppet.
3. “On a personal analysis level, Prabowo himself will not commit to a war of attrition, which WILL happen if he is caught trying to steal the election. He is a cowardly general who prefers to cut losses and fight another day. His style is that of a bully. Like any bully, his bark is far worse than how he fights. So let’s not make him look bigger than he deserves.”
Let’s hope that Prabowo indeed is no bigger than what is being stated here, so all these theories won’t become reality and everybody can sleep peacefully.
I wish, that on 22nd July, both sides can accept defeat and loss, then move on. With only a requirement, no manipulation (which is now happening sadly).
And I am happy that you finally use your rights to vote (even if it was forced by your wife). If only abstentions can cancel their candidation, I’d also chosen to be GOLPUT. Sadly, it won’t do anything, because someone will get chosen whether you like it or not, that’s why we should at least pick someone who deserves it a little bit better. At least it shows that you still care about our beloved country Indonesia.
Doesn’t that Burnhanuddin guy from Indkator study at ANU under the Marcus that is writing this? The same Burhanuddin who was ridiculously claiming that if KPU differs from his count, then KPU is lying? Marcus, shouldn’t you disclose that? And is there any reason we should take you seriously?
Why can’t you guys see that Prabowo is misunderstood. Wiranto is the leader of Prabowo during 1998. Wiranto is the one that you guys should blame. And Wiranto is also in coalition with PDIP. If you choose Jokowi-JK and you are choosing the real cause of 1998. As you can see, when Gusdur became president, he fired Wiranto which is a minister. He was fired because of HAM. Gusdur knew the real cause of 1998 and that is why he fired him.
Don’t you guys also forget that JK once said that Indonesia will fall apart in the hands of Jokowi. But because of the tempting offer from Megawati, he at last aggreed. Don’t you also forget that during the era when Megawati was the president, she sold this country valuable assets such as a indosat satellite, pertamina tanker ships, etc.
You really should be smart and know the situation before you choose the right leader of Indonesia.
It will happen. The Thai monarchy and its “independent” military will end. It may take another 20 years, but I think not, I believe it will be within a decade.
In the 80s, Nepal’s Royal family was “revered” Democracy was a farce. Look where the royal family is now.
Did any of you notice what Jokowi asked of the incumbent president after prabowo counter-declared victory?
To maintain peace and security…. until 22 July.
It is not threat. It is statement of confidence, in a subtle but firm javanese style. “I’ll be taking over.”
And if Prabowo is announced the winner? Good news, SBY, Jokowi has relieved you of the responsibility for whatever will happen afterwards.
I was in Jakarta for the last ten days conducting some interviews at KEMLU, and was able to observe the last phase of the elections. Watching Prabowo giving his bombastic speech claiming future victory when the ‘real count’ is completed was certainly revealing. The looks on the faces and the body language of those surrounding him, including VP candidate Hatta, hardly seemed like those of a winning camp. If one brings to this perspicacious anlaysis in this post, the insights from previous posts by Greg Fealey and Vedi Hadiz & Dick Robison, then three developments need to be observed closely in the following days. The first of these is the cohesiveness of Prabowo’w coalition. Will some cut and run to Jokowi-JK? Interlocateurs in Jakarta suggested Golkar, or senior members thereof, may be the first to go, leaving Bakrie in the isolation ward he deserves. Secondly as Vedi and Dick have demonstrated time and time again, the Indonesian oligarchy likes to be on the winning side and loyalties are to temporary and to be instrumentalized. Hatta’s deal with Prabowo was always based on self-interest rather than ideological commitment. Will he “pick up his marbles” and negotiate with the other camp in order to protect his business empire? Finally how will SBY and his entourage deal with the uncertainty? Given his own concern about his legacy on the international scene, does he really want to be seen as the president who turned back the clock to the pre-Reformasi era?
Well, i think this game is obviously created us (Indonesian People) being unsafe at any rate. It’s about the time for being neutral until KPU gives official statement who is the winner.
The tricks that Prabowo’s side make has causes some bad minor effects on the micro spacial scale of peoples (local youth, local crime, local thugs). They’re become on guard when they are talking about presidential election. The risk of being beaten by some group that insist to supporting Jokowi or Prabowo side is increasing. I live in Yogyakarta and i feel this situations are no more safe. From the entire history of riot in Indonesia, the city which have slighter amounts of riot is Yogyakarta. This situation that Prabowo’s doing are get confusing all entire Indonesian. They’re feel no more peace. The conclusion from being more criticism on one side makes us attacked by some group. This isn’t fair. The democration that Indonesia doing all along the time will getting more troubled as the number of false determined of getting inspired by someone who being a suspect for 98 May Tragedy.
I’m not some kinds of people which stand too much for one side, i’m neutral, i’m just collegian, but something that I know, i’ll never choose president which gives money to choose him on election as Prabowo does (real, my neighbours got Rp 1.000.000,00 for 1 family!!).
Well, to finish my opinion, just reminds all of you who lives in Indonesia, our country is not safe anymore, so be careful about what you talking about and what you did until 22 July. Once again, Indonesia is not safe anymore 🙂
You said..”Let’s be clear about one thing: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won Indonesia’s 9 July presidential election.”
In the statement above, I can guarantee that you don’t have enough intellectual capacity, you are not even a good observer…let’s Indonesian decides who will be our president..not yours…haha
Sir Jorah Mormont notwithstanding (may he rest in peace), there are some elections where the lesser of two evils is the wise choice – rather than remaining golput cos ‘No candidates have been worthy of my vote’…..Bless your wife, assuming you chose right.
The arguments presented in this article reflected a reluctance on the writer’s part to acknowledge the drive toward progress by the Indonesian people as well as a lack of understanding on the desire of its people. It is not about ‘disillusionment of the society with the way democracy has evolved’. The huge turnout, enthusiasm and participation of the people in recent presidential election is a testimony to the contrary of what the writer suggest. However many of us Indonesians are still far from satisfied with the policies and conducts of our elected and non elected officials. Our concerns are not so much about the system, but how the system is being run.
The writer’s emphasis on ties of both candidates to past ruling dynasties and the oligarchs are only true in part. I agree that it is highly probable for Prabowo to try and consolidate the power of the oligarchs to his advantage in light of his coalition structure. It is also undeniable that whoever wins would have to operate within ‘a complex system of oligarchy that enmeshes political authority and private wealth’. This is a common trait among democratic nations, Rupert Murdoch rings any bell here? The main issue here is not about the ties to oligarchs, but how those ties can be managed so it can translate to the mutual benefit of all societal level. Assuming at this point in time that such ties will hamper Jokowi’s ability to govern, is premature.
A case in point is how Jokowi has successfully implemented a governing style that incorporates horizontal as well as vertical social elements. In short, he has evoked participatory democracy which has proven to be much more efficient and effective. A process that most people overlooked, though the results are certainly visible and the benefit enjoyed by many.
Pointing out at Jokowi’s popularity as his only bargaining chip along with his ‘considerable acumen in negotiating within established elite structures’ also show an oversight on the writer’s evaluation of Jokowi. It is his pragmatism in dealing with bureaucratic problems along with his hands on approach that earned Jokowi the hope of the people. It is this hope and the concept of participatory democracy that constitutes Jokowi’s political strength.
Note: I am not involved in Jokowi’s campaign team nor am i a sympathizer of PDIP nor any other political parties for that matter, but I did vote for Jokowi. Salam 2 jari.
1) The article stated: “Though we have no direct evidence that the organisations producing the quick counts favouring Prabowo were paid to falsify their results, their track records give us every reason to be highly suspicious–indeed to be certain–that manipulation of some sort has taken place.”
So basically, this is hearsay. All research organization are always paid by someone. Manipulation will always happen. No pollster today is bias-free, even in so-called advanced democracies. If the Indonesian election poll was conducted by Pew or Gallup, or worse, ANU, no doubt the 40%-something of voters (those who supported Prabowo) will be up-in-arms on the streets chanting anti-foreign intervention slogans. Luckily, they were conducted by local pollsters.
Let me be clear: The vast majority of Indonesians knows EXACTLY what polls really are. Whether they are pre-election polls, attitude surveys, exit polls, quick counts, or other statistical gimmicks, in the end they are all campaign propaganda tools. No pollster do what they do for pure scientific purposes. Luckily, Indonesians know how to treat propaganda. They have been dealing with it since the very first election in the 1950s. They treat it the same way they treat tips from dukun (soothsayers): with skepticism.
The circulating fear at the moment, including those in the article, stems from paranoia. That Prabowo cannot be trusted. Nobody talked about whether his followers can be trusted. It is as if over sixty million Indonesians suddenly become untrustworthy. No so-called expert have faith that the voters’ cooler heads will prevail. They are rational people just like Jokowi’s supporters are rational people. They want their chosen candidate to win, but NOT at any price. Believe it or not but since 2004, no sane Indonesian want to destabilize their country over an election, or worse, a stupid poll.
In fact, the only camp that has mobilized large number of people to go to the streets immediately after the election is the Jokowi camp! Sure, they called it a celebration, but others can easily say that it is intimidation. See? It’s in how you manage your perception and faith on the people.
2) Then the article stated: “It will be unprecedented in Indonesia’s democratic experience for a candidate to try to steal the presidential result. But it is highly likely that Prabowo’s camp will make the attempt.”
Again, another hearsay. “Highly likely” based on what? The article already stated that shifting this large amount of votes from one candidate to another is highly unlikely to succeed and is “unprecedented”. Why would the authors think that Prabowo will set the precedent? What is that “final piece of evidence that he truly is a would-be autocrat who has no respect for the will of the people”? All this just because he refused to believe in quick counts? Hell, I would be an autocrat too if that were the case. This article is a bit too personal, it seems. What has Prabowo did to the authors, I wonder? Has he thrown a mobile phone at them?
Well, I can be as good a soothsayer as any pollster: Let’s assume that Prabowo is the devil that the article implied, how will he achieve his end? By continuing to follow Rob Allyn’s strategies? We’ve already seen how disgusted Indonesian voters at the negative campaigns that Jokowi actually rebounded in the last few weeks (assuming the pollsters were correct). What good will further backhanded activities do at this point when everybody’s spotlights are already on the candidates’ behavior? Even TV One have already backpedalled on the bogus poll results by switching to the publicly more favorable ones.
That’s the thing: the article assumes that the Prabowo camp consists only of Prabowo. It’s not. It’s a coalition of interests between several equally (if not more) powerful people as Prabowo. Sure, they put on their brave faces and presented a united front on election-day but when sober thoughts kicked in, they will behave according to what is best for their own individual interests. They will be the first to stop Prabowo from doing anything unbecoming. After all, it’s too late to pull out now. They can only make the best of a bad situation, and I’m pretty sure that does not include stealing the presidential result.
In the words of Ser Jorah Mormont, “The Lords will back whoever they think is likely to win.” Team Prabowo is already crumbling left and right. The chief of Partai Demokrat, Syarief Hasan, have already urged Prabowo to be a graceful loser and not do anything rash. I’m pretty sure Golkar, PKS, PPP and the other losers will do the same though not as public (it’s pretty embarrassing after all). The reason is simple Realpolitik: They now want to get onto the Jokowi bandwagon too. Negotiations is possible (regardless of Jokowi’s campaign promises) but not if they are involved in anything unseemly. Prabowo is now a liability for them. It’s damage control time.
On a personal analysis level, Prabowo himself will not commit to a war of attrition, which WILL happen if he is caught trying to steal the election. He is a cowardly general who prefers to cut losses and fight another day. His style is that of a bully. Like any bully, his bark is far worse than how he fights. So let’s not make him look bigger than he deserves.
3) That’s it.
As for my own credibility (it seems important nowadays), I am and Indonesian citizen eligible to vote but I have been a staunch Golput since 2002. No candidates have been worthy of my vote. Time and again have proven me right, so I have no regret. On Wednesday 9 July 2014 I was FORCED to vote by my wife (of all people), who said that this election is important because an article told her so. Instead of calmly resting on a fasting day comfortably I had to drag myself to a polling booth queue, so yeah, I DO have a personal interest in this article.
Seriously, I’m used to Indonesian elections, but I have had enough fear mongering during this particular campaign to last several elections. I do not need another one coming from people who are not even eligible to vote. This entire what-ifs and what-wills gossiping must stop. You’re making things worse.
after reading all the New Mandala’s articles I was convinced (I guess you will say I was brainwashed) that probably the agencies on the side of Prabowo were not really trustworthy. But here the point is another: Megawati declared victory after only 2 hours! The Prabowo’s reaction has to be consider as a formal action (an objection as you said) to return back to a democratic path. Following New Mandala I believe the data provided were in some way manipulated (the most compelling proof is that Poltracking resigned from the contract with tvOne). But the original sin was actually coming from the anti-democratic attitude of Megawati who wanted to force the result so early (even before people in Papua could vote).
By the way I wouldn’t trust the scientific method used by these agencies: in Italy recently, for the european elections, the exit polls error was of 7 points (after declaring the error margin was less than 1). After the real count nobody were thinking about frauds and a debate started about the limits of these methods and about the opportunity to make public polls whose objective sometimes is only to poison the political life.
By starting reading this article, the first sentence marked by the writer was “Let’s be clear about one thing: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won Indonesia’s 9 July…”
It could be said that, the writer want to set the “mindset” to the reader’s mind at the first.
Why it should be ? The first mindset is important, the rest is nothing compare it
.
I just didn’t know how could the overseas media just look like take a part in National problem ?
And from what they wrote, It was clear they took a side to one of the candidate
Have you ever heard about what the supporters of JKW said, “The only way we lose in this election is cheat”
They said this a long ago before the election get started.
This statement also mindset anyone who heard that, and this statement also repeat for a couple time.
The trick is also use in this type of writing. The same way the writer and the supporters use to change the people mindset
when i saw yesterday’s newspaper about the number of “sample” from prabowo, and compared to jokowi.. prabowo’s sample is about 3500 sample.. and he claimed he won the election.. and jokowi sample is over 18000.. so which is the better accuracy?
Oesman, agreed. And subsidised by the taxpayers, who have to work productively so these guys don’t. I can assure you that slipping on skimpies and shaking pompoms for politicians is not a mainstream aussie pastime. All opinion poll surveys here are prefaced with the unsaid words ‘Given that you neither like nor trust politicians, what do you think about …’
Over at Rappler Maria Ressa provided a far better, balanced, nuanced and informed coverage of the campaign. What a difference one good journalist can make.
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Prabowo’s game plan
Haha yea credible, like Rizal Sukma of CSIS? Part of Jokowi’s team? Ring a bell?
And the authors know nothing about statistics.
Prabowo’s game plan
every normal people who ever learned about statistics should know what it means.
but this doesn’t include those who starved for power for nearly 10 years (&invested a lot of money on it)…
it’s not really surprising as he was part of intelligent body from US in the past.
he’s smarter than half (or at least 47%) of Indonesian population & he knew how’s things work here….. separatism by religious issues, blablabla
Prabowo’s game plan
Apropos of the author, we should all take a note of the fact that Burhanuddin Muhtadi, who was all over the news earlier threatening the KPU as liars if Jokowi didn’t win, is a Phd student of Marcus Mietzner at ANU.
http://ips.cap.anu.edu.au/people/burhanuddin-muhtadi#.U7_6NKhnEj4
and
http://www.republika.co.id/berita/pemilu/hot-politic/14/07/11/n8ix6e-salahkan-kpu-jika-prabowo-menang-pernyataan-burhanuddin-muhtadi-bisa-picu-konflik
Prabowo’s game plan
@shutthehellup
First of all, I like reading your comment. It was a neutral one, not siding on both sides. There are some things I’d really like to add and comment. Therefore if I may, I’d like to quote back some of your statements.
1. “The circulating fear at the moment, including those in the article, stems from paranoia. That Prabowo cannot be trusted. Nobody talked about whether his followers can be trusted. It is as if over sixty million Indonesians suddenly become untrustworthy. No so-called expert have faith that the voters’ cooler heads will prevail. They are rational people just like Jokowi’s supporters are rational people. They want their chosen candidate to win, but NOT at any price. Believe it or not but since 2004, no sane Indonesian want to destabilize their country over an election, or worse, a stupid poll.”
The paranoia, that Prabowo can’t be trusted, is justified. Try looking back on his military background, the rioting in 1998, kidnapping and human rights violations he conducted, all the cases which involved him are still floating in the court until today. I’m not saying he’s guilty, the courts have no balls to touch the case, but it just amazes me how someone with unfinished court business can be this close to presidential chair. And how can the people not be paranoia? They have every rights to be.
And indeed, the voters of both sides are rational, These people want to give their best for our beloved country Indonesia. They are not stupid, but when both candidates gave beautiful and convincing presentation, or are being promised with fame/money/prosperity, being rational is not an option, they couldn’t help but finally take a side and buy what is being sold, only to get dissapointment because the elected person didn’t do things as he promised. This must be the reason of you being GOLPUT, you stated it so, because you believe they aren’t worthy, they can’t deliver what they promised.
2. “In fact, the only camp that has mobilized large number of people to go to the streets immediately after the election is the Jokowi camp! Sure, they called it a celebration, but others can easily say that it is intimidation. See? It’s in how you manage your perception and faith on the people.”
I must say I also hate and loathe Megawati for declaring that her side has won, while it is still a quick poll. Which caused many chained reactions. And how come she was the one declaring it? It is because of such actions of her that made Jokowi being branded as a puppet.
3. “On a personal analysis level, Prabowo himself will not commit to a war of attrition, which WILL happen if he is caught trying to steal the election. He is a cowardly general who prefers to cut losses and fight another day. His style is that of a bully. Like any bully, his bark is far worse than how he fights. So let’s not make him look bigger than he deserves.”
Let’s hope that Prabowo indeed is no bigger than what is being stated here, so all these theories won’t become reality and everybody can sleep peacefully.
I wish, that on 22nd July, both sides can accept defeat and loss, then move on. With only a requirement, no manipulation (which is now happening sadly).
And I am happy that you finally use your rights to vote (even if it was forced by your wife). If only abstentions can cancel their candidation, I’d also chosen to be GOLPUT. Sadly, it won’t do anything, because someone will get chosen whether you like it or not, that’s why we should at least pick someone who deserves it a little bit better. At least it shows that you still care about our beloved country Indonesia.
Prabowo’s game plan
Doesn’t that Burnhanuddin guy from Indkator study at ANU under the Marcus that is writing this? The same Burhanuddin who was ridiculously claiming that if KPU differs from his count, then KPU is lying? Marcus, shouldn’t you disclose that? And is there any reason we should take you seriously?
Prabowo’s game plan
Why can’t you guys see that Prabowo is misunderstood. Wiranto is the leader of Prabowo during 1998. Wiranto is the one that you guys should blame. And Wiranto is also in coalition with PDIP. If you choose Jokowi-JK and you are choosing the real cause of 1998. As you can see, when Gusdur became president, he fired Wiranto which is a minister. He was fired because of HAM. Gusdur knew the real cause of 1998 and that is why he fired him.
Don’t you guys also forget that JK once said that Indonesia will fall apart in the hands of Jokowi. But because of the tempting offer from Megawati, he at last aggreed. Don’t you also forget that during the era when Megawati was the president, she sold this country valuable assets such as a indosat satellite, pertamina tanker ships, etc.
You really should be smart and know the situation before you choose the right leader of Indonesia.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
It will happen. The Thai monarchy and its “independent” military will end. It may take another 20 years, but I think not, I believe it will be within a decade.
In the 80s, Nepal’s Royal family was “revered” Democracy was a farce. Look where the royal family is now.
Prabowo’s game plan
Did any of you notice what Jokowi asked of the incumbent president after prabowo counter-declared victory?
To maintain peace and security…. until 22 July.
It is not threat. It is statement of confidence, in a subtle but firm javanese style. “I’ll be taking over.”
And if Prabowo is announced the winner? Good news, SBY, Jokowi has relieved you of the responsibility for whatever will happen afterwards.
Prabowo’s game plan
I was in Jakarta for the last ten days conducting some interviews at KEMLU, and was able to observe the last phase of the elections. Watching Prabowo giving his bombastic speech claiming future victory when the ‘real count’ is completed was certainly revealing. The looks on the faces and the body language of those surrounding him, including VP candidate Hatta, hardly seemed like those of a winning camp. If one brings to this perspicacious anlaysis in this post, the insights from previous posts by Greg Fealey and Vedi Hadiz & Dick Robison, then three developments need to be observed closely in the following days. The first of these is the cohesiveness of Prabowo’w coalition. Will some cut and run to Jokowi-JK? Interlocateurs in Jakarta suggested Golkar, or senior members thereof, may be the first to go, leaving Bakrie in the isolation ward he deserves. Secondly as Vedi and Dick have demonstrated time and time again, the Indonesian oligarchy likes to be on the winning side and loyalties are to temporary and to be instrumentalized. Hatta’s deal with Prabowo was always based on self-interest rather than ideological commitment. Will he “pick up his marbles” and negotiate with the other camp in order to protect his business empire? Finally how will SBY and his entourage deal with the uncertainty? Given his own concern about his legacy on the international scene, does he really want to be seen as the president who turned back the clock to the pre-Reformasi era?
Prabowo’s game plan
Well, i think this game is obviously created us (Indonesian People) being unsafe at any rate. It’s about the time for being neutral until KPU gives official statement who is the winner.
The tricks that Prabowo’s side make has causes some bad minor effects on the micro spacial scale of peoples (local youth, local crime, local thugs). They’re become on guard when they are talking about presidential election. The risk of being beaten by some group that insist to supporting Jokowi or Prabowo side is increasing. I live in Yogyakarta and i feel this situations are no more safe. From the entire history of riot in Indonesia, the city which have slighter amounts of riot is Yogyakarta. This situation that Prabowo’s doing are get confusing all entire Indonesian. They’re feel no more peace. The conclusion from being more criticism on one side makes us attacked by some group. This isn’t fair. The democration that Indonesia doing all along the time will getting more troubled as the number of false determined of getting inspired by someone who being a suspect for 98 May Tragedy.
I’m not some kinds of people which stand too much for one side, i’m neutral, i’m just collegian, but something that I know, i’ll never choose president which gives money to choose him on election as Prabowo does (real, my neighbours got Rp 1.000.000,00 for 1 family!!).
Well, to finish my opinion, just reminds all of you who lives in Indonesia, our country is not safe anymore, so be careful about what you talking about and what you did until 22 July. Once again, Indonesia is not safe anymore 🙂
Prabowo’s game plan
You said..”Let’s be clear about one thing: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won Indonesia’s 9 July presidential election.”
In the statement above, I can guarantee that you don’t have enough intellectual capacity, you are not even a good observer…let’s Indonesian decides who will be our president..not yours…haha
Prabowo’s game plan
Sir Jorah Mormont notwithstanding (may he rest in peace), there are some elections where the lesser of two evils is the wise choice – rather than remaining golput cos ‘No candidates have been worthy of my vote’…..Bless your wife, assuming you chose right.
Prabowo’s game plan
cunning sarcasm,,and completely misses the point of the article
President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
The arguments presented in this article reflected a reluctance on the writer’s part to acknowledge the drive toward progress by the Indonesian people as well as a lack of understanding on the desire of its people. It is not about ‘disillusionment of the society with the way democracy has evolved’. The huge turnout, enthusiasm and participation of the people in recent presidential election is a testimony to the contrary of what the writer suggest. However many of us Indonesians are still far from satisfied with the policies and conducts of our elected and non elected officials. Our concerns are not so much about the system, but how the system is being run.
The writer’s emphasis on ties of both candidates to past ruling dynasties and the oligarchs are only true in part. I agree that it is highly probable for Prabowo to try and consolidate the power of the oligarchs to his advantage in light of his coalition structure. It is also undeniable that whoever wins would have to operate within ‘a complex system of oligarchy that enmeshes political authority and private wealth’. This is a common trait among democratic nations, Rupert Murdoch rings any bell here? The main issue here is not about the ties to oligarchs, but how those ties can be managed so it can translate to the mutual benefit of all societal level. Assuming at this point in time that such ties will hamper Jokowi’s ability to govern, is premature.
A case in point is how Jokowi has successfully implemented a governing style that incorporates horizontal as well as vertical social elements. In short, he has evoked participatory democracy which has proven to be much more efficient and effective. A process that most people overlooked, though the results are certainly visible and the benefit enjoyed by many.
Pointing out at Jokowi’s popularity as his only bargaining chip along with his ‘considerable acumen in negotiating within established elite structures’ also show an oversight on the writer’s evaluation of Jokowi. It is his pragmatism in dealing with bureaucratic problems along with his hands on approach that earned Jokowi the hope of the people. It is this hope and the concept of participatory democracy that constitutes Jokowi’s political strength.
Note: I am not involved in Jokowi’s campaign team nor am i a sympathizer of PDIP nor any other political parties for that matter, but I did vote for Jokowi. Salam 2 jari.
Prabowo’s game plan
Sadly there is alot of vote buying in my area, they willing to pay us ard idr 200k for voting for no.1
Prabowo’s game plan
1) The article stated: “Though we have no direct evidence that the organisations producing the quick counts favouring Prabowo were paid to falsify their results, their track records give us every reason to be highly suspicious–indeed to be certain–that manipulation of some sort has taken place.”
So basically, this is hearsay. All research organization are always paid by someone. Manipulation will always happen. No pollster today is bias-free, even in so-called advanced democracies. If the Indonesian election poll was conducted by Pew or Gallup, or worse, ANU, no doubt the 40%-something of voters (those who supported Prabowo) will be up-in-arms on the streets chanting anti-foreign intervention slogans. Luckily, they were conducted by local pollsters.
Let me be clear: The vast majority of Indonesians knows EXACTLY what polls really are. Whether they are pre-election polls, attitude surveys, exit polls, quick counts, or other statistical gimmicks, in the end they are all campaign propaganda tools. No pollster do what they do for pure scientific purposes. Luckily, Indonesians know how to treat propaganda. They have been dealing with it since the very first election in the 1950s. They treat it the same way they treat tips from dukun (soothsayers): with skepticism.
The circulating fear at the moment, including those in the article, stems from paranoia. That Prabowo cannot be trusted. Nobody talked about whether his followers can be trusted. It is as if over sixty million Indonesians suddenly become untrustworthy. No so-called expert have faith that the voters’ cooler heads will prevail. They are rational people just like Jokowi’s supporters are rational people. They want their chosen candidate to win, but NOT at any price. Believe it or not but since 2004, no sane Indonesian want to destabilize their country over an election, or worse, a stupid poll.
In fact, the only camp that has mobilized large number of people to go to the streets immediately after the election is the Jokowi camp! Sure, they called it a celebration, but others can easily say that it is intimidation. See? It’s in how you manage your perception and faith on the people.
2) Then the article stated: “It will be unprecedented in Indonesia’s democratic experience for a candidate to try to steal the presidential result. But it is highly likely that Prabowo’s camp will make the attempt.”
Again, another hearsay. “Highly likely” based on what? The article already stated that shifting this large amount of votes from one candidate to another is highly unlikely to succeed and is “unprecedented”. Why would the authors think that Prabowo will set the precedent? What is that “final piece of evidence that he truly is a would-be autocrat who has no respect for the will of the people”? All this just because he refused to believe in quick counts? Hell, I would be an autocrat too if that were the case. This article is a bit too personal, it seems. What has Prabowo did to the authors, I wonder? Has he thrown a mobile phone at them?
Well, I can be as good a soothsayer as any pollster: Let’s assume that Prabowo is the devil that the article implied, how will he achieve his end? By continuing to follow Rob Allyn’s strategies? We’ve already seen how disgusted Indonesian voters at the negative campaigns that Jokowi actually rebounded in the last few weeks (assuming the pollsters were correct). What good will further backhanded activities do at this point when everybody’s spotlights are already on the candidates’ behavior? Even TV One have already backpedalled on the bogus poll results by switching to the publicly more favorable ones.
That’s the thing: the article assumes that the Prabowo camp consists only of Prabowo. It’s not. It’s a coalition of interests between several equally (if not more) powerful people as Prabowo. Sure, they put on their brave faces and presented a united front on election-day but when sober thoughts kicked in, they will behave according to what is best for their own individual interests. They will be the first to stop Prabowo from doing anything unbecoming. After all, it’s too late to pull out now. They can only make the best of a bad situation, and I’m pretty sure that does not include stealing the presidential result.
In the words of Ser Jorah Mormont, “The Lords will back whoever they think is likely to win.” Team Prabowo is already crumbling left and right. The chief of Partai Demokrat, Syarief Hasan, have already urged Prabowo to be a graceful loser and not do anything rash. I’m pretty sure Golkar, PKS, PPP and the other losers will do the same though not as public (it’s pretty embarrassing after all). The reason is simple Realpolitik: They now want to get onto the Jokowi bandwagon too. Negotiations is possible (regardless of Jokowi’s campaign promises) but not if they are involved in anything unseemly. Prabowo is now a liability for them. It’s damage control time.
On a personal analysis level, Prabowo himself will not commit to a war of attrition, which WILL happen if he is caught trying to steal the election. He is a cowardly general who prefers to cut losses and fight another day. His style is that of a bully. Like any bully, his bark is far worse than how he fights. So let’s not make him look bigger than he deserves.
3) That’s it.
As for my own credibility (it seems important nowadays), I am and Indonesian citizen eligible to vote but I have been a staunch Golput since 2002. No candidates have been worthy of my vote. Time and again have proven me right, so I have no regret. On Wednesday 9 July 2014 I was FORCED to vote by my wife (of all people), who said that this election is important because an article told her so. Instead of calmly resting on a fasting day comfortably I had to drag myself to a polling booth queue, so yeah, I DO have a personal interest in this article.
Seriously, I’m used to Indonesian elections, but I have had enough fear mongering during this particular campaign to last several elections. I do not need another one coming from people who are not even eligible to vote. This entire what-ifs and what-wills gossiping must stop. You’re making things worse.
President Jokowi vs Oligarchy
Dear oneindonesian,
after reading all the New Mandala’s articles I was convinced (I guess you will say I was brainwashed) that probably the agencies on the side of Prabowo were not really trustworthy. But here the point is another: Megawati declared victory after only 2 hours! The Prabowo’s reaction has to be consider as a formal action (an objection as you said) to return back to a democratic path. Following New Mandala I believe the data provided were in some way manipulated (the most compelling proof is that Poltracking resigned from the contract with tvOne). But the original sin was actually coming from the anti-democratic attitude of Megawati who wanted to force the result so early (even before people in Papua could vote).
By the way I wouldn’t trust the scientific method used by these agencies: in Italy recently, for the european elections, the exit polls error was of 7 points (after declaring the error margin was less than 1). After the real count nobody were thinking about frauds and a debate started about the limits of these methods and about the opportunity to make public polls whose objective sometimes is only to poison the political life.
Prabowo’s game plan
By starting reading this article, the first sentence marked by the writer was “Let’s be clear about one thing: Joko Widodo (Jokowi) has won Indonesia’s 9 July…”
It could be said that, the writer want to set the “mindset” to the reader’s mind at the first.
Why it should be ? The first mindset is important, the rest is nothing compare it
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I just didn’t know how could the overseas media just look like take a part in National problem ?
And from what they wrote, It was clear they took a side to one of the candidate
Have you ever heard about what the supporters of JKW said, “The only way we lose in this election is cheat”
They said this a long ago before the election get started.
This statement also mindset anyone who heard that, and this statement also repeat for a couple time.
The trick is also use in this type of writing. The same way the writer and the supporters use to change the people mindset
Prabowo’s game plan
when i saw yesterday’s newspaper about the number of “sample” from prabowo, and compared to jokowi.. prabowo’s sample is about 3500 sample.. and he claimed he won the election.. and jokowi sample is over 18000.. so which is the better accuracy?
Prabowo’s game plan
Oesman, agreed. And subsidised by the taxpayers, who have to work productively so these guys don’t. I can assure you that slipping on skimpies and shaking pompoms for politicians is not a mainstream aussie pastime. All opinion poll surveys here are prefaced with the unsaid words ‘Given that you neither like nor trust politicians, what do you think about …’
Over at Rappler Maria Ressa provided a far better, balanced, nuanced and informed coverage of the campaign. What a difference one good journalist can make.