Prabowo has so many skeletons in his closet, he could be a forensic anthropologist. More accurately, he could be a guest star on CSI and I don’t mean, one of the forensic scientists. Blood and turmoil have followed Prabowo wherever he has found himself. His emotional and mental stability is very much open to question, his weak interpersonal skills much in evidence, and his penchant for
anti-Chinese and anti-Semitic commentary, even if in the past, can hardly be erased during the present, and should not. Prabowo, in fact, other than being an enabler who has risen through ties to the former Soeharto regime, personal and professional, in fact has almost nothing to offer Indonesia, that is original, intelligent, visionary, realistic, stable, articulate, tolerant (smart man, Prabowo, ordering Gus Dur to “behave” or else), technocratic, cultured,
or uniquely Indonesian. Whatever Jokowi’s own weaknesses, which are not few, Prabowo even lacks the minimal emotional and mental stability to lead a nation, as diverse and large, as Indonesia. One needs to wear many hats to manage Indonesia. Prabowo’s problem is that he tries to wear all the hats at one time.
Deekana is the person behind anti-red shirt international Facebook group. See Facebook post of hers and the anti-red shirt international FB page where there are just too many highlights of analysis to list. She rants against the international media accusing them of being paid by Thaksin – see here. There are plenty other pearls of wisdom…
The very fact that Suthep has not yet been called to reported to the junta for his latest disclosure on the conspiracy with Prayuth to overthrown any Thaksin’s affiliated government is the indication that the coup itself is the extension of Suthep’s efforts by another means. therefore, the coup itself is ill-prepared and has not yet received comprehensive supports from all parties, particulary those in high-places. This can been seen from that unusual silence of Pravuth’s ex commanding officers recruited for advisory position of the junta, including the ex army chief, General Anupong Paojinda, who virtually disappeared from the news after his appointment.
Pravuth and his coup makers is operating on a shaky ground. He does not want to repeat the actions made by General Sondthi in 2007 and the failure to prevent Thaksin’s affiliated parties to come to power. However. He also failed to appreciated what General Sondthi did for the military and how articulate Sondthi was in taking into account the lesson learnt from General Suchinda regime. it is likely that Pravuth has not even realize that without Sondthi’s 2007 coup, he might not become the army chief and in position to stage the current coup.
Here lie the biggest problem with this coup. Prayuth doest not want to do what Sondthi did although he and the military gained a great deal of benefits from the 2007 coup. Prayuth might want to employ the coup playbooks from the 1960’s-1970’s but these coups were long before his time and such playbooks are no longer viable in present circumstance. More importantly, governing a country in modern day is a dynamic undertaking that does not allow for Annand Punyarachun’s tempoary freezing (suspension) of the country as inaction (such as on fuel subsidies) can have as much adverse effect as taking any wrong action.
I have seen at least 5 coups in my life time and none never end well for the coup makers. The lastest coup, in my opinion, is clumsy, ill-prepared and likely to end badly for its makers. The timing is wrong (should be a lot earlier), the method is unrefine (with early enactment of temporay constitution) and the vision is unclear (reform is a propaganda not necessity in ever changing society such as Thailand). The latest article by Dr. Nithi in Matichon newspaper actually criticised this coup for not giving Thai people any dream nor aspiration. coup
This piece is so poorly argued and lacking in any kind of academic rigor that I can easily imagine coup supporters suspecting it was published in order to make them look bad.
I think this coup is different but not for the reasons stated. The generals took a simmering or boiling pot situation, put a lid on it and turned it into a pressure cooker. Do they seriously think all those red shirts are going to simply forget about democracy? Their votes no longer count but it’s OK because now they get free world cup games?
When it explodes, it will bring Bangkok to a halt, and the military will not survive this revolution. Subsequent governments, controlled by red shirts (and with the backing of people power in the streets), will eviscerate the army and end its influence once and for all. And then a resilient democracy will be established.
Comforting to know that an Australian University can lead a sensible debate on Thailand, and can inform the world about the truth of that country. This is a true contribution to understanding the problems there, and counteracts the lies and deceptive propaganda eminating from official sources in that country. Carry on with your splendid work.
Dear Arthur,
I do love your metaphor for the yellow shirt army: pigs in uniform lining up at the feeding trough for a periodic gorging. This of course applies to the top brass – hardly to their poor underlings, the young men who have to carry out their orders.
I salute the effort of NM to bring in voices from both sides of the aisle. In fact, there is strong support for the coup within the Bangkokian middle class (not so much the elites, actually, interesting development there), and the reasons why are often missed in the debate. From a strategic point of view, it is mandatory to bring the middle class back into the democratic flock, so understanding their fears and anger better is a must.
However, if your hidden motivation was not to ridicule the intellectual bankruptcy of coup cheerleaders, then this article raises serious questions about quality. It lacks any substance or insight.
To understand why this coup happened now, it’s essential to grasp how the elite struggle over royal succession fits into Thailand’s political conflict. Way back in October, I forecast what was coming in my article “р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д“, making detailed predictions that turned out to be uncannily accurate. Given the wealth of evidence that has now emerged about the succession struggle, plus the fact that the thesis not only explains the past but can make accurate predictions about the future, I’m surprised that so many analysts continue to show such a limited understanding of what is going on.
Am I living in the same country as the author? Reduced media censorship??? The NCPO just created a panel last week to do just that! “Censoring media”. Strong fundamental???? Thailand is death last in the region in terms of education and it doesnt help by the fact the permanent secretary of the minitry of education is now trying to have school open propaghanda music 3 times a day. What kind of rabbish ia this?
More nonsense. Nothing in the 2nd ed was “deleted… to appease certain readers.” Only the intro and conclusion we’re rewritten to accomodate the new stuff. In chapters 1 to 7, we did not change a word.
Sceptic, thank you for the figures. I think that’s accurate.
This article prompts two questions:
1. Where is Thailand now in relation to its obligations as a signatory to various UN declarations, in particular those related to freedom of expression and right to assembly?
and
2. Will the members of the junta, as an “interim government” make full assets declarations?
I wonder how the junta are going to educate the Boy Scouts that they are no longer allowed to use the three fingered salute as a recognition sign?
It will also be interesting to see who they allow to teach their new Thai history, morals and patriotism to the students. The last junta allowed the Democrats and yellow shirts that dubious priveledge and nearly caused a revolt in and out of the schools.
The “article” is what one would expect from the Thai “elite” as they try and sway the foreign community to their way of thinking. It won’t work.
“Now almost a month after the coup, tight restrictions on the public and media censorship has substantially decreased.”
Really?
I don’t think so.
Just last week Sunday i photographed how several protesters were arrested, one 72 year old lady in Wat Patum who wore a “Respect my Vote” T-Shirt, and in the afternoon a student was dragged away by soldiers at Siam Paragon who read Orwell’s 1984 and ate a sandwich as a sign of civil disobedience. So far regarding restrictions on the public having been lifted…
As to media censorship – journalists are still not allowed to criticize the military or the coup itself, and several committees led by security agencies were set up to scrutinize the different media sectors.
Most foreign onlookers are well aware that this coup is quite different from the 2006 coup. This coup is incomparably harder than the 2006 coup.
Only a minority of western onlookers see this coup as simply a result of elite squabbles, most though nowadays view the coup as just the latest incident in a conflict concerning fundamental unresolved issues in the entire Thai society.
The 2006 coup has given birth to the Red Shirt movement. Lets see what this coup will give birth to. Will the coup makers have the will and potency to get rid of the networks that have actually rendered the elected government into a state of impotence in the first place, and now for the third time in the past 9 years?
Because this isn’t about “Thaksin cronyism” (why not “Suthep cronyism”?)… fascinating – being lectured about that this may not be about elite squabbles, yet a few paragraph’s below comes one of the worst elite based argument polemics in this conflict in which one side is simply and falsely reduced to one man alone, disregarding the very complex structures and mechanics, and processes of building political awareness that have taken place in the last almost 9 years of conflict?
Neither east nor west, etc… How literary. But meaningless waffle. It’s about structures, not romantic notions grounded in faulty ideas of Thai exceptionalism. Ultimately it is about how Thai society manages more or less the same inevitable transformation that has taken place in most European countries 100 to 150 years ago.
At least you had the honesty to state that democracy is not what you wish. The only problem i see here is that you have not stated what system you exactly want instead for Thailand (i hope we not have go back into “New Politics” of 2008/2009…).
Could you please elaborate on what system of government you believe would work for Thailand, and will not cause even more social conflict? Or is just that you have to tell us naive foreign observers that you support the coup? In which case – thank you, yes, i can see that.
Sad example for the intellectual bankruptcy of coup cheerleaders. You fundamentally fail to understand the nature of transformation crises, and from the sound of it know little about Thai politics. To believe that this coup could bring stability or even any resolution of the crisis is utterly naive. The junta will be insignificant, a waste of time, before the crisis resumes.
What charming naivite to think that having unaccountable to anyone generals ruling Thailand is not only not actually detrimental but practically harmless. Are the writers not aware that the 2nd most corrupt organization/entity in all of Thailand (the 1st cannot be mentioned)is the Thai military? Are they not familiar with the GT200, Ukrainian tanks, the surveillance blimp, the Gripen jets, the ,ilitary’s involvement in trafficking, smuggling, nightlife, extortion, kickbacks, commissions? Not to speak of the sporadic slaughter of Thai citizens. The expected Amnesty after each coup. The impunity. Thai coups are not “re-sets”, nor “re-starts”, they are just the pigs in uniform lining up at the feeding trough for a periodic gorging. How tedious, how repititive, and yet some folks in Thailand still fall for it to this day. Amazing Thailand.
I am afraid that you have to be more specific in your praise of what is different this time. The privilege of being able to watch the football world cup is hardly enough. In fact, it reminds me of how the Roman emperors pacified the ‘mob’ with bread and circus. That was 2000 years ago. Gen. Prayuth obviously knows his classic history.
In my opinion, this article is written from a very biased and very nationalistic point of view.
This is manifest from the sentence, “Having seen both worlds, we renounce this talk. Thailand indeed has strong foundations– culture, education, and infrastructure– that will bring it through and above among the soon-to-be AEC partners.” I strongly disagree that such a “strength” will prevent Thailand from falling into a disaster.
Regarding the education, the authors did not mention how much “Thai history” in the curriculum is distorted by nationalism, especially when it involves our neighbouring countries. Moreover, Thai education and culture rarely touch upon the topics like inequalities, fundamental rights of minorities, or racism. This should explain why people who supported the military coup, which of course suppressed fundamental freedom of people, have so much space in the media.
Regarding the infrastructure mentioned in the article, this even emphasises a gap between Bangkok and other parts of the country. I am very perplexed to see the authors claiming that Thailand, as a whole, has a strong foundations of infrastructure. I would like to invite the reader to investigate more on the public transportation system (especially the rail system) of the whole country and compare it to what they have in Bangkok.
Sweet words in defence of the yellow shirt military who were advised by Suthep himself how to go about staging a coup. Of course stabily will improve the Thai Stock Exchange and foreign investment. That is to be expected. But good-bye to social and economic justice for the majority of Thais while the elite entrench their position and take Thailand back a hundred years. Good bye to the Rule of Law and welcome inherited privilege and patronage.
Of course, if you want any inkling on what this “new model” will look look, on how the different division of the society will be healed by the kindly coup masters in a way different from “sit down and shut up”, you won’t find out from reading this article.
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Prabowo Subianto: vote for me, but just the once
Prabowo has so many skeletons in his closet, he could be a forensic anthropologist. More accurately, he could be a guest star on CSI and I don’t mean, one of the forensic scientists. Blood and turmoil have followed Prabowo wherever he has found himself. His emotional and mental stability is very much open to question, his weak interpersonal skills much in evidence, and his penchant for
anti-Chinese and anti-Semitic commentary, even if in the past, can hardly be erased during the present, and should not. Prabowo, in fact, other than being an enabler who has risen through ties to the former Soeharto regime, personal and professional, in fact has almost nothing to offer Indonesia, that is original, intelligent, visionary, realistic, stable, articulate, tolerant (smart man, Prabowo, ordering Gus Dur to “behave” or else), technocratic, cultured,
or uniquely Indonesian. Whatever Jokowi’s own weaknesses, which are not few, Prabowo even lacks the minimal emotional and mental stability to lead a nation, as diverse and large, as Indonesia. One needs to wear many hats to manage Indonesia. Prabowo’s problem is that he tries to wear all the hats at one time.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Deekana is the person behind anti-red shirt international Facebook group. See Facebook post of hers and the anti-red shirt international FB page where there are just too many highlights of analysis to list. She rants against the international media accusing them of being paid by Thaksin – see here. There are plenty other pearls of wisdom…
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
The very fact that Suthep has not yet been called to reported to the junta for his latest disclosure on the conspiracy with Prayuth to overthrown any Thaksin’s affiliated government is the indication that the coup itself is the extension of Suthep’s efforts by another means. therefore, the coup itself is ill-prepared and has not yet received comprehensive supports from all parties, particulary those in high-places. This can been seen from that unusual silence of Pravuth’s ex commanding officers recruited for advisory position of the junta, including the ex army chief, General Anupong Paojinda, who virtually disappeared from the news after his appointment.
Pravuth and his coup makers is operating on a shaky ground. He does not want to repeat the actions made by General Sondthi in 2007 and the failure to prevent Thaksin’s affiliated parties to come to power. However. He also failed to appreciated what General Sondthi did for the military and how articulate Sondthi was in taking into account the lesson learnt from General Suchinda regime. it is likely that Pravuth has not even realize that without Sondthi’s 2007 coup, he might not become the army chief and in position to stage the current coup.
Here lie the biggest problem with this coup. Prayuth doest not want to do what Sondthi did although he and the military gained a great deal of benefits from the 2007 coup. Prayuth might want to employ the coup playbooks from the 1960’s-1970’s but these coups were long before his time and such playbooks are no longer viable in present circumstance. More importantly, governing a country in modern day is a dynamic undertaking that does not allow for Annand Punyarachun’s tempoary freezing (suspension) of the country as inaction (such as on fuel subsidies) can have as much adverse effect as taking any wrong action.
I have seen at least 5 coups in my life time and none never end well for the coup makers. The lastest coup, in my opinion, is clumsy, ill-prepared and likely to end badly for its makers. The timing is wrong (should be a lot earlier), the method is unrefine (with early enactment of temporay constitution) and the vision is unclear (reform is a propaganda not necessity in ever changing society such as Thailand). The latest article by Dr. Nithi in Matichon newspaper actually criticised this coup for not giving Thai people any dream nor aspiration. coup
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
This piece is so poorly argued and lacking in any kind of academic rigor that I can easily imagine coup supporters suspecting it was published in order to make them look bad.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
I think this coup is different but not for the reasons stated. The generals took a simmering or boiling pot situation, put a lid on it and turned it into a pressure cooker. Do they seriously think all those red shirts are going to simply forget about democracy? Their votes no longer count but it’s OK because now they get free world cup games?
When it explodes, it will bring Bangkok to a halt, and the military will not survive this revolution. Subsequent governments, controlled by red shirts (and with the backing of people power in the streets), will eviscerate the army and end its influence once and for all. And then a resilient democracy will be established.
Thai coup: The debate continues
Comforting to know that an Australian University can lead a sensible debate on Thailand, and can inform the world about the truth of that country. This is a true contribution to understanding the problems there, and counteracts the lies and deceptive propaganda eminating from official sources in that country. Carry on with your splendid work.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Dear Arthur,
I do love your metaphor for the yellow shirt army: pigs in uniform lining up at the feeding trough for a periodic gorging. This of course applies to the top brass – hardly to their poor underlings, the young men who have to carry out their orders.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
I salute the effort of NM to bring in voices from both sides of the aisle. In fact, there is strong support for the coup within the Bangkokian middle class (not so much the elites, actually, interesting development there), and the reasons why are often missed in the debate. From a strategic point of view, it is mandatory to bring the middle class back into the democratic flock, so understanding their fears and anger better is a must.
However, if your hidden motivation was not to ridicule the intellectual bankruptcy of coup cheerleaders, then this article raises serious questions about quality. It lacks any substance or insight.
Thai coup: The debate continues
To understand why this coup happened now, it’s essential to grasp how the elite struggle over royal succession fits into Thailand’s political conflict. Way back in October, I forecast what was coming in my article “р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д“, making detailed predictions that turned out to be uncannily accurate. Given the wealth of evidence that has now emerged about the succession struggle, plus the fact that the thesis not only explains the past but can make accurate predictions about the future, I’m surprised that so many analysts continue to show such a limited understanding of what is going on.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Am I living in the same country as the author? Reduced media censorship??? The NCPO just created a panel last week to do just that! “Censoring media”. Strong fundamental???? Thailand is death last in the region in terms of education and it doesnt help by the fact the permanent secretary of the minitry of education is now trying to have school open propaghanda music 3 times a day. What kind of rabbish ia this?
Seven questions for Thailand’s military
More nonsense. Nothing in the 2nd ed was “deleted… to appease certain readers.” Only the intro and conclusion we’re rewritten to accomodate the new stuff. In chapters 1 to 7, we did not change a word.
Sceptic, thank you for the figures. I think that’s accurate.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
This article prompts two questions:
1. Where is Thailand now in relation to its obligations as a signatory to various UN declarations, in particular those related to freedom of expression and right to assembly?
and
2. Will the members of the junta, as an “interim government” make full assets declarations?
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
I wonder how the junta are going to educate the Boy Scouts that they are no longer allowed to use the three fingered salute as a recognition sign?
It will also be interesting to see who they allow to teach their new Thai history, morals and patriotism to the students. The last junta allowed the Democrats and yellow shirts that dubious priveledge and nearly caused a revolt in and out of the schools.
The “article” is what one would expect from the Thai “elite” as they try and sway the foreign community to their way of thinking. It won’t work.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
“Now almost a month after the coup, tight restrictions on the public and media censorship has substantially decreased.”
Really?
I don’t think so.
Just last week Sunday i photographed how several protesters were arrested, one 72 year old lady in Wat Patum who wore a “Respect my Vote” T-Shirt, and in the afternoon a student was dragged away by soldiers at Siam Paragon who read Orwell’s 1984 and ate a sandwich as a sign of civil disobedience. So far regarding restrictions on the public having been lifted…
As to media censorship – journalists are still not allowed to criticize the military or the coup itself, and several committees led by security agencies were set up to scrutinize the different media sectors.
Most foreign onlookers are well aware that this coup is quite different from the 2006 coup. This coup is incomparably harder than the 2006 coup.
Only a minority of western onlookers see this coup as simply a result of elite squabbles, most though nowadays view the coup as just the latest incident in a conflict concerning fundamental unresolved issues in the entire Thai society.
The 2006 coup has given birth to the Red Shirt movement. Lets see what this coup will give birth to. Will the coup makers have the will and potency to get rid of the networks that have actually rendered the elected government into a state of impotence in the first place, and now for the third time in the past 9 years?
Because this isn’t about “Thaksin cronyism” (why not “Suthep cronyism”?)… fascinating – being lectured about that this may not be about elite squabbles, yet a few paragraph’s below comes one of the worst elite based argument polemics in this conflict in which one side is simply and falsely reduced to one man alone, disregarding the very complex structures and mechanics, and processes of building political awareness that have taken place in the last almost 9 years of conflict?
Neither east nor west, etc… How literary. But meaningless waffle. It’s about structures, not romantic notions grounded in faulty ideas of Thai exceptionalism. Ultimately it is about how Thai society manages more or less the same inevitable transformation that has taken place in most European countries 100 to 150 years ago.
At least you had the honesty to state that democracy is not what you wish. The only problem i see here is that you have not stated what system you exactly want instead for Thailand (i hope we not have go back into “New Politics” of 2008/2009…).
Could you please elaborate on what system of government you believe would work for Thailand, and will not cause even more social conflict? Or is just that you have to tell us naive foreign observers that you support the coup? In which case – thank you, yes, i can see that.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Sad example for the intellectual bankruptcy of coup cheerleaders. You fundamentally fail to understand the nature of transformation crises, and from the sound of it know little about Thai politics. To believe that this coup could bring stability or even any resolution of the crisis is utterly naive. The junta will be insignificant, a waste of time, before the crisis resumes.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
What charming naivite to think that having unaccountable to anyone generals ruling Thailand is not only not actually detrimental but practically harmless. Are the writers not aware that the 2nd most corrupt organization/entity in all of Thailand (the 1st cannot be mentioned)is the Thai military? Are they not familiar with the GT200, Ukrainian tanks, the surveillance blimp, the Gripen jets, the ,ilitary’s involvement in trafficking, smuggling, nightlife, extortion, kickbacks, commissions? Not to speak of the sporadic slaughter of Thai citizens. The expected Amnesty after each coup. The impunity. Thai coups are not “re-sets”, nor “re-starts”, they are just the pigs in uniform lining up at the feeding trough for a periodic gorging. How tedious, how repititive, and yet some folks in Thailand still fall for it to this day. Amazing Thailand.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
I am afraid that you have to be more specific in your praise of what is different this time. The privilege of being able to watch the football world cup is hardly enough. In fact, it reminds me of how the Roman emperors pacified the ‘mob’ with bread and circus. That was 2000 years ago. Gen. Prayuth obviously knows his classic history.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
In my opinion, this article is written from a very biased and very nationalistic point of view.
This is manifest from the sentence, “Having seen both worlds, we renounce this talk. Thailand indeed has strong foundations– culture, education, and infrastructure– that will bring it through and above among the soon-to-be AEC partners.” I strongly disagree that such a “strength” will prevent Thailand from falling into a disaster.
Regarding the education, the authors did not mention how much “Thai history” in the curriculum is distorted by nationalism, especially when it involves our neighbouring countries. Moreover, Thai education and culture rarely touch upon the topics like inequalities, fundamental rights of minorities, or racism. This should explain why people who supported the military coup, which of course suppressed fundamental freedom of people, have so much space in the media.
Regarding the infrastructure mentioned in the article, this even emphasises a gap between Bangkok and other parts of the country. I am very perplexed to see the authors claiming that Thailand, as a whole, has a strong foundations of infrastructure. I would like to invite the reader to investigate more on the public transportation system (especially the rail system) of the whole country and compare it to what they have in Bangkok.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Sweet words in defence of the yellow shirt military who were advised by Suthep himself how to go about staging a coup. Of course stabily will improve the Thai Stock Exchange and foreign investment. That is to be expected. But good-bye to social and economic justice for the majority of Thais while the elite entrench their position and take Thailand back a hundred years. Good bye to the Rule of Law and welcome inherited privilege and patronage.
Thailand’s coup: same same but different?
Of course, if you want any inkling on what this “new model” will look look, on how the different division of the society will be healed by the kindly coup masters in a way different from “sit down and shut up”, you won’t find out from reading this article.