Much as I disagree with what he says, I don’t think Khun Vichai still stays within the bounds of civilized discussion. Listening to the other side, even when what they say seems outrageous, is beneficial to the discourse.
Bans are an ugly tool to be used in very specific circumstances (i.e. derailing a discussion, flaming, insulting or inconveniencing other members).
I honestly have no idea. The cracker explosion came at the end of the attack, when the car drove off. I have just seen the explosion, but not who threw the thing.
Possibly he was a PDRC supporter and/or said something wrong, and some of the Red Shirts/pro-election protesters just went mad. Emotions are really raw here right now. Blood has been shed on both sides, and this incident at Laksi will only further raise hatred, especially under the Red Shirts, given that the injured (apart from Jim) were on their side.
As to the shooters – there were just two main groups involved, the shooters on the yellow side have just taken different positions – and the Reds were targeted from two sides.
I fully agree, although the current situation has something of an endgame to me. I am quite sure we won’t get back to the stalemate we had before (I do hope though we get there again, because – as you said – no side can deliver the knock-out punch at the moment and so this could get ugly for quite some time)
Krajong didn’t say if the scheme would be good or bad (and I personally would say that direct subsidies might have been a better way and the merits of the scheme is really debatable), he is just saying – and rightly so – that the current problems paying the farmers are a direct result of the limited powers of the caretaker government, because they are unable to take new loans.
I am quite sure this is the best bet of the elite: Hoping that the blame will fall on PT and not on them, while they, the courts and the bureaucracy trying to keep the government in this legal limbo for as long as possible.
I hope the farmers will see through this shenanigans and blame the side that is really responsible for the problems they face.
Thanks to Mr. Jory for putting this out. TO his list of pro-Red media, I’ll add the community radio networks which the military has tried to savage with some success. Selective killings work wonders. Also, Prachatai is an excellent pub, although the English and Thai versions are as dissimilar as can be. With lese majeste law as solid as any of Stalin’s edicts, we can never know what the non-English speaking Thai think about the monarchy, but I know from conversations in Thai that the Iron Image of the “Deeply Revered [Institution”, that way I don’t get so arbitrarily censored] is slipping badly.
Thanks for the reports, Nick. The opening shots in a civil war? The police are not being circumspect, they’re with the Yellows (PDRC). Following Army orders. The Army-designed plan is working very well. Use enough PDRC violence to keep the Reds off balance, their numbers down. That way, when the Reds fire back, they can be accused of provoking the PDRC.
Correction for sentence 1 above: Polling (url below) seems to largely support professor Jory’s view of the true sentiments of muanmahaprachachon – 80% said they would vote just ten days before the election, in a poll that almost certainly could not have over sampled reds.
Polling (url below) seems to largely support professor Jory’ view of the true sentiments of muanmahaprachachon — 80% said they would just ten days before the election, in a poll that almost certainly could not have over sampled reds. 80%. That’s a big number.
But the polling data also suggest that support for democratic process, even support for Phua Thai, is not necessarily committed support for Taksin. The same poll quoted above shows support for ‘reform before elections’ even among those who intended to vote. Earlier polls show significant dissatisfaction with the PT government after the amnesty fiasco and that PT has not fully recovered from that. ‘Other’ and ‘uncertain’ have been the party categories that have fared the best in terms of increased support over the past several polling intervals.
People want(ed) to vote; people don’t want a coup; amnesty was abhorrent to almost everyone; support for PT has eroded; the Democrats have not benefited in public opinion from any of it.
As for the blue guys in the upper sections of the temple murals … they aren’t reported in the polling results.
By and large this article reflects a top-down, royalist/military view of events and attitudes in Thailand.
Working through the article, some comments:
Thaksin:
admiration much broader than North and North-East, rural communities were and are beneficiaries of village loans (to escape from loan sharks and manage their own finances) and One Tambon One Product, all poor and lower middle income from 30 Baht hospital care, all Thais for dramatic recovery from the SEAsian Financial Crisis (paying off the IMF early) and expansion of telecommunications, mobile phones and the International Airport.
Thaksin’s wealth increased while he was PM apparently below the average increase in share value on the SET. The wealth of certain bankers and others apparently increased much more than did Thaksin. The sale of shares in his telecomunications company to Temasek was tax-free which anyone investing in Thailand is aware except of course the PAD was happy to ignore.
Thaksin fall from grace:
just ask the question whether any other reasonable democracy would accept that the military, police, etc should be out of control by the government of the day?
The new constitution created and imposed by the military junta introduced a royalist incestuous cycle of appointments of “good” people into the checks and balances institutions, Constitution Court, National Anti Corruption, Electoral Commissions and half appointed Senate. Despite huge efforts at framing Thaksin the only real convictions recorded have been his 2 years gaol for signing his permission for his wife to purchase land in a public auction and confiscation of a large amount in lieu of the aforementioned tax that he legally didnt pay.
Democrats take office:
the military were heavily involved with coup threats and by control of the police when PAD took over the airports and of course behind the political negotiations in bringing Democrats into the coalition government.
Yingluck 2011:
Abhisit’s Democrats lost this election (as they have everyone since 1992) because they seemed to rely on huge spending on vote buying (supposedly 3 times the spending by Peu Thai on fewer seats), as you point out apparently not realising that they needed policies to attract votes.
The Rice Mortgage scheme is seen as income support for Thailand’s main farm and export product something that is common in major economies around the world, USA, France, etc, has not been shown to be unsustainable except that the recent protests apparently accidentally and now purposely have obstructed the governments normal processes for rice sales and farmer payments.
Yingluck and the Peu Thai party have been faced with the Constitution Court creating new and contradictory rulings to deny changes to the Constitution, the most obvious being to declare that requiring all Senators to be elected rather than half appointed is unconstitutional. As you note, Peu Thai made a controversial amendment to an Amnesty Bill that would have absolved senior people including Abhisit, Suthep from their charges of ordering murder in 2010 and also Thaksin as well as rank and file under threat for politically related crimes since 2006. The parliament has passed this bill but Yingluck recognised its rejection by the protesters and has vowed not to introduce the bill for ratification.
Umm. Not sure if I could totally agree with your assessment of the relative strength of each bloc. The future certainly lies with the electoral Thaksin bloc. However, at present the royalists are not simply hegemonic on ideological terrain (itself not an insignificant factor), but they of course posses REAL MATERIAL power in the military and the court, especially the military which could always be used as the last resort. Undoubtedly, no one could rule for long period with such “material” power, especially in contemporary world; in other words, fascist, totalitarian-typed regime would not survive long. Because of this combination of material and ideological power on the royalist side, I still think the overall “balance of power” between the two sides is largely, more or less, “equal”. That’s WHY we are having the current situation, i.e neither side could deliver a “knock out” for 3 months now.
“… Tensions mounted for hours before clashes broke out. Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch, said several pro-government gunmen climbed to the mall’s rooftop and began firing down toward rivals. The two sides also fought with rocks and firecrackers.
“What is clear is that both sides had weapons, both sides were armed,” Sunai said. “This is a very worrying sign.”
Senor Jory, esta confrontacion will not be an ‘even match’ if you put ‘El Principe’ with the ‘Camisa Roja’ because that will be ‘muy gran handicap’ to the Red Corner. Comprende?
Your comment is inane and you have only cornered yourself. If all you resort to is pejorative comments, it means you have nothing to say at all. With a silly moniker from a 1960s Jackie Gleason sitcom, we know what corner of the Universe you reside in.
Seriously? Go back into your cave. Stay there. For a very, very long time. but before you go, give the man some respect. it might help you in the next life.
Knock / knock, any brains out there? In the 2000 US election only 51.3% of the US electorate turned out – and that was in the absence of outlaw mobs preventing voting. The Thai turnout of 46.7% only validates the true path of Thailand to democracy, rather than a 19th century form of feudalism. Thailand will survive this fight for power, just as Suchinda kraprayoon was chastised and put out to pasture in 1992.
Ah Jory just one question: Why did you include the Crown Prince in the Red Corner? I believed that this same question was asked to Andrew MacGregor Marshall and he swallowed his dentures before he could reply . . .
Article confirms what I’ve been saying since the protests degenerated into street-fairs-plus-amplified-elitist-propaganda at the end of the first week. The media is bright yellow. No reportage on how weak (and astronomically inconvenient) these protests really are.
One thing, though – how does Mr. Jory know that the CP is on the side of the reds? We know of a somewhat cozy financial arrangement, but that may or may not still be true. It also does not portend that when a certain big sad event happens, and then a certain previously-mentioned person gets a new job after big sad event, that he will be in the red corner. It would not be surprising, of course, but are there other indicators beyond the financial support previously (?) given by TS?
HAHAHA I love the part about the dopey mall security guard saying the door wasn’t open when it was.
Goes to show that it doesn’t matter if it’s a life-or-death situation: Thais just can’t WAIT to say “MAI DAI!!” whether it’s true or not.
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Bangkok’s last Red Shirt fortress
I respectfully disagree.
Much as I disagree with what he says, I don’t think Khun Vichai still stays within the bounds of civilized discussion. Listening to the other side, even when what they say seems outrageous, is beneficial to the discourse.
Bans are an ugly tool to be used in very specific circumstances (i.e. derailing a discussion, flaming, insulting or inconveniencing other members).
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Brillant !
The Laksi gunfight
I honestly have no idea. The cracker explosion came at the end of the attack, when the car drove off. I have just seen the explosion, but not who threw the thing.
Possibly he was a PDRC supporter and/or said something wrong, and some of the Red Shirts/pro-election protesters just went mad. Emotions are really raw here right now. Blood has been shed on both sides, and this incident at Laksi will only further raise hatred, especially under the Red Shirts, given that the injured (apart from Jim) were on their side.
As to the shooters – there were just two main groups involved, the shooters on the yellow side have just taken different positions – and the Reds were targeted from two sides.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
I fully agree, although the current situation has something of an endgame to me. I am quite sure we won’t get back to the stalemate we had before (I do hope though we get there again, because – as you said – no side can deliver the knock-out punch at the moment and so this could get ugly for quite some time)
Thailand’s electorate deserves respect
Krajong didn’t say if the scheme would be good or bad (and I personally would say that direct subsidies might have been a better way and the merits of the scheme is really debatable), he is just saying – and rightly so – that the current problems paying the farmers are a direct result of the limited powers of the caretaker government, because they are unable to take new loans.
I am quite sure this is the best bet of the elite: Hoping that the blame will fall on PT and not on them, while they, the courts and the bureaucracy trying to keep the government in this legal limbo for as long as possible.
I hope the farmers will see through this shenanigans and blame the side that is really responsible for the problems they face.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Thanks to Mr. Jory for putting this out. TO his list of pro-Red media, I’ll add the community radio networks which the military has tried to savage with some success. Selective killings work wonders. Also, Prachatai is an excellent pub, although the English and Thai versions are as dissimilar as can be. With lese majeste law as solid as any of Stalin’s edicts, we can never know what the non-English speaking Thai think about the monarchy, but I know from conversations in Thai that the Iron Image of the “Deeply Revered [Institution”, that way I don’t get so arbitrarily censored] is slipping badly.
The Laksi gunfight
Thanks for the reports, Nick. The opening shots in a civil war? The police are not being circumspect, they’re with the Yellows (PDRC). Following Army orders. The Army-designed plan is working very well. Use enough PDRC violence to keep the Reds off balance, their numbers down. That way, when the Reds fire back, they can be accused of provoking the PDRC.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Correction for sentence 1 above: Polling (url below) seems to largely support professor Jory’s view of the true sentiments of muanmahaprachachon – 80% said they would vote just ten days before the election, in a poll that almost certainly could not have over sampled reds.
Sorry about that.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Polling (url below) seems to largely support professor Jory’ view of the true sentiments of muanmahaprachachon — 80% said they would just ten days before the election, in a poll that almost certainly could not have over sampled reds. 80%. That’s a big number.
But the polling data also suggest that support for democratic process, even support for Phua Thai, is not necessarily committed support for Taksin. The same poll quoted above shows support for ‘reform before elections’ even among those who intended to vote. Earlier polls show significant dissatisfaction with the PT government after the amnesty fiasco and that PT has not fully recovered from that. ‘Other’ and ‘uncertain’ have been the party categories that have fared the best in terms of increased support over the past several polling intervals.
People want(ed) to vote; people don’t want a coup; amnesty was abhorrent to almost everyone; support for PT has eroded; the Democrats have not benefited in public opinion from any of it.
As for the blue guys in the upper sections of the temple murals … they aren’t reported in the polling results.
http://bangkokpoll.bu.ac.th/poll/result/poll667.php?pollID=530&Topic=%A1%D2%C3%E0%C5%D7%CD%A1%B5%D1%E9%A7%B7%E8%D2%C1%A1%C5%D2%A7%A4%C7%D2%C1%A2%D1%B4%E1%C2%E9%A7%B7%D2%A7%A1%D2%C3%E0%C1%D7%CD%A7&fileDoc=poll667.pdf
Thailand’s ‘Days of our Strife’
By and large this article reflects a top-down, royalist/military view of events and attitudes in Thailand.
Working through the article, some comments:
Thaksin:
admiration much broader than North and North-East, rural communities were and are beneficiaries of village loans (to escape from loan sharks and manage their own finances) and One Tambon One Product, all poor and lower middle income from 30 Baht hospital care, all Thais for dramatic recovery from the SEAsian Financial Crisis (paying off the IMF early) and expansion of telecommunications, mobile phones and the International Airport.
Thaksin’s wealth increased while he was PM apparently below the average increase in share value on the SET. The wealth of certain bankers and others apparently increased much more than did Thaksin. The sale of shares in his telecomunications company to Temasek was tax-free which anyone investing in Thailand is aware except of course the PAD was happy to ignore.
Thaksin fall from grace:
just ask the question whether any other reasonable democracy would accept that the military, police, etc should be out of control by the government of the day?
The new constitution created and imposed by the military junta introduced a royalist incestuous cycle of appointments of “good” people into the checks and balances institutions, Constitution Court, National Anti Corruption, Electoral Commissions and half appointed Senate. Despite huge efforts at framing Thaksin the only real convictions recorded have been his 2 years gaol for signing his permission for his wife to purchase land in a public auction and confiscation of a large amount in lieu of the aforementioned tax that he legally didnt pay.
Democrats take office:
the military were heavily involved with coup threats and by control of the police when PAD took over the airports and of course behind the political negotiations in bringing Democrats into the coalition government.
Yingluck 2011:
Abhisit’s Democrats lost this election (as they have everyone since 1992) because they seemed to rely on huge spending on vote buying (supposedly 3 times the spending by Peu Thai on fewer seats), as you point out apparently not realising that they needed policies to attract votes.
The Rice Mortgage scheme is seen as income support for Thailand’s main farm and export product something that is common in major economies around the world, USA, France, etc, has not been shown to be unsustainable except that the recent protests apparently accidentally and now purposely have obstructed the governments normal processes for rice sales and farmer payments.
Yingluck and the Peu Thai party have been faced with the Constitution Court creating new and contradictory rulings to deny changes to the Constitution, the most obvious being to declare that requiring all Senators to be elected rather than half appointed is unconstitutional. As you note, Peu Thai made a controversial amendment to an Amnesty Bill that would have absolved senior people including Abhisit, Suthep from their charges of ordering murder in 2010 and also Thaksin as well as rank and file under threat for politically related crimes since 2006. The parliament has passed this bill but Yingluck recognised its rejection by the protesters and has vowed not to introduce the bill for ratification.
enough for now… hope these comments are helpful.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Umm. Not sure if I could totally agree with your assessment of the relative strength of each bloc. The future certainly lies with the electoral Thaksin bloc. However, at present the royalists are not simply hegemonic on ideological terrain (itself not an insignificant factor), but they of course posses REAL MATERIAL power in the military and the court, especially the military which could always be used as the last resort. Undoubtedly, no one could rule for long period with such “material” power, especially in contemporary world; in other words, fascist, totalitarian-typed regime would not survive long. Because of this combination of material and ideological power on the royalist side, I still think the overall “balance of power” between the two sides is largely, more or less, “equal”. That’s WHY we are having the current situation, i.e neither side could deliver a “knock out” for 3 months now.
The Laksi gunfight
“… Tensions mounted for hours before clashes broke out. Sunai Phasuk, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch, said several pro-government gunmen climbed to the mall’s rooftop and began firing down toward rivals. The two sides also fought with rocks and firecrackers.
“What is clear is that both sides had weapons, both sides were armed,” Sunai said. “This is a very worrying sign.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/nation_world/20140202_Clashes_grip_Bangkok_on_eve_of_vote.html#OUoLDf7YjUyopZJq.99
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Senor Jory, esta confrontacion will not be an ‘even match’ if you put ‘El Principe’ with the ‘Camisa Roja’ because that will be ‘muy gran handicap’ to the Red Corner. Comprende?
Thailand’s ‘Days of our Strife’
Your comment is inane and you have only cornered yourself. If all you resort to is pejorative comments, it means you have nothing to say at all. With a silly moniker from a 1960s Jackie Gleason sitcom, we know what corner of the Universe you reside in.
The Laksi gunfight
Seriously? Go back into your cave. Stay there. For a very, very long time. but before you go, give the man some respect. it might help you in the next life.
The Laksi gunfight
Knock / knock, any brains out there? In the 2000 US election only 51.3% of the US electorate turned out – and that was in the absence of outlaw mobs preventing voting. The Thai turnout of 46.7% only validates the true path of Thailand to democracy, rather than a 19th century form of feudalism. Thailand will survive this fight for power, just as Suchinda kraprayoon was chastised and put out to pasture in 1992.
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Excellent piece here. Thanks for sharing with us..!!!
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Ah Jory just one question: Why did you include the Crown Prince in the Red Corner? I believed that this same question was asked to Andrew MacGregor Marshall and he swallowed his dentures before he could reply . . .
The weakness of the Thai royalists
Article confirms what I’ve been saying since the protests degenerated into street-fairs-plus-amplified-elitist-propaganda at the end of the first week. The media is bright yellow. No reportage on how weak (and astronomically inconvenient) these protests really are.
One thing, though – how does Mr. Jory know that the CP is on the side of the reds? We know of a somewhat cozy financial arrangement, but that may or may not still be true. It also does not portend that when a certain big sad event happens, and then a certain previously-mentioned person gets a new job after big sad event, that he will be in the red corner. It would not be surprising, of course, but are there other indicators beyond the financial support previously (?) given by TS?
The Laksi gunfight
HAHAHA I love the part about the dopey mall security guard saying the door wasn’t open when it was.
Goes to show that it doesn’t matter if it’s a life-or-death situation: Thais just can’t WAIT to say “MAI DAI!!” whether it’s true or not.