As far as the discussion regarding the secession of ethnic minority areas from Burma goes this is really a non-issue. Although right-wing militarists in Burma would like to portray the civil wars as existential threats to the borders of Myanmar almost all rebel groups have explicitly stated that they simply want a federal system that gives them equal rights, freedoms (religion, speech, and association) and citizenship.
As I argued in my opinion piece on New Mandala last month, the central problem in Burma’s ethnic conflicts is about power sharing and the military elites simply are attempting to maintain and expand their power domestically as much as possible before having to make concessions and co-opt elites of the ethnic minorities. The problems of the Rohingyah are unique in terms of the level of oppression and legalized discrimination that they suffer from the Myanmar regime. That said the solution to the their plight is identical to that of all other ethnic groups in Burma and it requires the imposition of federalism, something that would by its very nature, favors ethnic minorities and not the Bamar military elite. Of course Thein Sein and the all the other former and current Bamar militarists are happy to smile and promise to deliver democracy (and perhaps federalism in a new constitution?) to the world in just a couple more years as long as “development” money keeps rolling in, lining their pockets and fortifying their chances of continuing to be a class of oligarchs from a majority ethnic group in a country destined to be ruled under a federalist system.
“Police on Monday accused anti-government protesters of breaking into the Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) at Chaeng Wattana government complex and stealing hard drives and other assets….”
” … Thank you Nick for risking your life …” – fairdinkum
The most dangerous place indeed these days is to be anear or alongside Bangkok policeman(men). Nick Nostitz must be the bravest photographer in Bangkok right now.
Thailand’s Police Chief Adul Sangsingkaew says ‘Men-in-black’ are policemen period.
Could Nostitz possess nine lives? Be careful of your friends Nostitz, and, be very careful you don’t photo-capture your friends while carrying on vicious deeds and mischiefs.
With all due respect, please provide some evidence for your claims that 1) the ARNO (ARIF/RSO) exists and is a significant organization representing some sizable number of the Rohingyah population, 2) that they are “funded by Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan and possible Al-Qaeda (and maybe even Jema’ah Islamiyah in Indonesia)” and 3) that they have carried out acts of terrorism.
As experts and scholars it is simply not enough to make damning statements of this kind without providing evidence of facts. The false allegations of Iraqi WMDs in 2003 made this clear. You may have felt that my comments to your statements earlier were “ideological, inaccurate and skewed” but I was simply taking the evidence you had provided and reexamining it in its entirety.
You may feel strongly that Western militaries should work closely with the Myanmar regime (and other governments) in fighting terrorist organizations and, as an aside, I would agree with that policy but if you really believe that the ARNO is a terrorist organization then you need better evidence than you provided with the Wikileaks memo which in fact, when presented in its entirety, strongly cautions against drawing that conclusion.
For what it’s worth, I’ve read much of Mr. Marshall’s work online, trying to make sense of current Thai politics. I generally think #thaistory is excellent work and very informative, though sometime there’s more information than I can handle at once. I do note some bias against the “elites”, but I’m a grownup and can take that into consideration. I don’t see it as “pro-Thaksin” so much as an attempt to separate fact from rumor.
I don’t know if he left Reuter’s for the reasons he claims, nor do I much care. I think your online feud is rather childish and parochial, and your insulting tone serves only to make you appear vindictive.
I looked up your book, “Thailand Take 2” on Amazon. It looks like a pleasant read and reasonably accurate, though not very profound. Have you ever written a political analysis comparable to what you are so roundly criticizing here? I would be interested to read it.
“No need for a conspiracy when you have a convergence of interests.”
That convergence of interest is the funniest part. Somehow, the global corporations’ wish is funnily the exact wish of not just Than Shwe/ Aung Thaung led Disney Dress-Up “Government” and now ever loyal (to the point of always pimping for them) Aung San Suu Kyi, but also of all the audible and visible journalists and academics. Integrate the Great Nation Burma to the global “Land Loot, Total Destruction and Social Disintegration Economy” now popularly known as “Democracy”. It sure will be fun for a small percentage of the population with the help of trained police and armed forces to isolate and suppress the majority of the citizens according to the “Rule of Law” and supported by the “Media” owned and managed by select few.
This pattern is historically so boringly the same that it is sort of a miracle it still works very well!
But Aung San Suu Kyi being a well made up concoction of “the west” (simply meaning global corporations) does not require any conspiracy theory. Again it seems to be an ever reliable formula. There always is a person they can select on all occasions and then concertedly work via journalists, popular people in show business, academics and this or that prize giving organizations to shine them up. Then use them to control the now accumulated immense cult of them. Worked with Mandela, Dalai Lama, Havel and now this one.
Maybe we should start by defining what we mean by elite?
What do you mean when you say elite? Are you referring to the ruling class?
I welcome inputs from everyone — as this is really a defining issue in Malaysia.
Here is Khoo Boo Teik with a different twist on the same issue.
Instances where ordinary people went after ordinary people because of ethnic reasons are very rare. The real dangers came in the very severe moments of political and economic crisis.
After you’ve rounded up every member of the Thaksin clan, their friends, and everyone else who ever was a TRT or Pheu Thai MP – whoever you consider part of the “Thaksin regime” – and you deport, imprison or execute them all, and bulldoze their homes into rubble, and then these “good people” again permit elections (haha), and all those millions of upcountry buffaloes find a new leader who campaigns for greater democracy, aid for the common people, and a relative disempowerment of the privileged minority, what do you think Suthep and his gang will do? Do you seriously believe they will allow him to rule, that they won’t claim he’s a “Thaksinist”, and pull the same stunt again? Do you honestly believe the elite (the 9 richest families are worth US$55.5 billion – 1,776,000,000,000 baht) will ever allow ANYONE to take away their power to run the show?
And then what do you think will happen in a few years, when 3D printers make it possible for anyone to make guns, and both sides are heavily armed?
boon #23.1.2.2.1: “Now I pose this question to you Mr. Marshall: What do you think will become of Thailand once the Crown Prince assumes the throne, AND, Thaksin Shinawatra returns to assume his rightful place (according to him and his Red Shirts followers) as Thai Prime Minister? … While you are…thinking about this very likely scenario in the very near future, I’ll go back with Mr. Suthep and our 500,000 strong (at least) very peaceful protest groups specifically to prevent that very horrible scenario.”
Not only have I thought about this scenario, it’s actually central to the analysis in my article р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д, which argues that the anti-democracy movement can only be understood when viewed in the context of succession, and specifically as an effort to prevent an alliance of Thaksin and Vajiralongkorn dominating Thailand. So while you seem to think you are disagreeing with me, in fact your comments confirm the accuracy of my thesis. Thank you very much!
I’m surprised that the thugs haven’t paid you a breakfast wake up call, since they know who you are.
Keep your head on a swivel, and watch your six. Stay safe.
Good luck with that Greg ! Even the NGOs fight among themselves. There needs to be a role model. Or you get anarchy. Like it or not, Malaysia will be ruled by a member of the elite; which country isn’t ? Do you think Mao wasn’t an elitist ? Think again. What Malaysia needs is competent, intelligent, sophisticated, technocratic, multidimensional and (not mandatory, but always helpful), caring leadership. Except perhaps for the last criterion, one is describing a member of the elite, regardless of that individual’s own ideological outlook. Malaysia would not exist were there no Tunku, and he was about as elitist as you can get, but he was also intelligent and understood the diversity of his countrymen and countrywomen and thus the need for a multicultural Malaysia. That understanding steadily dwindled within UMNO, after the Tunku passed on. And, I daresay, I do not think the opposition understands what Malaysia needs, any more than UMNO/BN. Working together is fine, but even in as egalitarian a society as, let’s say, Norway,
they still have to have a Prime Minister, and the Norwegian Prime Minister is even more educated than the already very-well educated
Norwegians, because to lead a nation you have to be. A Malaysia with everyone talking with each other (which I have doubts about anyway)
and a semi-literate and incompetent PM just won’t do Malaysia any good. So, fine, talk all you want, but Malaysia still awaits its true leader somewhere above the horizon.
Congratulations Nick for your brave reporting, considering you and other reporters are now a target for the vicious thugs that are being paid to destroy our country. You now have a new major challenge – to re-invent yourself in order to carry on your work.
” … I can assure you I am not making up the fact that the Thai monarch controls all this wealth.” – Andrew MacGregor Marshall
As if a MacGregor Marshall assurance could be reliable and comforting. HMK Bhumibhol certainly lives up to his ‘sufficiency’ theme: no excesses, moderation in practice, and a monarch’s life truly dedicated to his people and especially to the people in need.
Mr. Marshall once mentioned that while the Red Shirts scorn the Thai monarchy, they carry a special space in their hearts for the the Crown Prince. And we also know that the Red Shirts, self-declared protectors of the Thai democracy (ha ha), also carry a very special space in their pockets for one Thaksin Shinawatra and her sister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Now I pose this question to you Mr. Marshall: What do you think will become of Thailand once the Crown Prince assumes the throne, AND, Thaksin Shinawatra returns to assume his rightful place (according to him and his Red Shirts followers) as Thai Prime Minister?
Think about that too Mr. Apivat Hanvongse. While you are both thinking about this very likely scenario in the very near future, I’ll go back with Mr. Suthep and our 500,000 strong (at least) very peaceful protest groups specifically to prevent that very horrible scenario.
To:
Those were tales told by a bunch of elderly coolies down by the godowns along the chaopraya in songwat. Not historical facts, yet who knows if they are historical un-facts? Those gungho stories, tall tales they might be, of hired chinese mercs during the end of the Iudea era, however, held much joy and intrigue for a child.
No offense at all to Burma.
In my one visit there, I was very impressed with the populance, that show much higher political, social, and critical awareness than Thais. I believe Burma progress would be fast once it started and could potentially overtake Thailand.
One of Thais better kings, Naresuan, grew up in and was trained by Burmese.
I would never describe Burmese with the ‘s’ word as you did.
No distinction? A waste of energy? But surely if Apivat could transcend into the PhD cloud, he might stop his annoying habit of amateuresque juxtaposition… or might at least learn what it means.
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Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
As far as the discussion regarding the secession of ethnic minority areas from Burma goes this is really a non-issue. Although right-wing militarists in Burma would like to portray the civil wars as existential threats to the borders of Myanmar almost all rebel groups have explicitly stated that they simply want a federal system that gives them equal rights, freedoms (religion, speech, and association) and citizenship.
As I argued in my opinion piece on New Mandala last month, the central problem in Burma’s ethnic conflicts is about power sharing and the military elites simply are attempting to maintain and expand their power domestically as much as possible before having to make concessions and co-opt elites of the ethnic minorities. The problems of the Rohingyah are unique in terms of the level of oppression and legalized discrimination that they suffer from the Myanmar regime. That said the solution to the their plight is identical to that of all other ethnic groups in Burma and it requires the imposition of federalism, something that would by its very nature, favors ethnic minorities and not the Bamar military elite. Of course Thein Sein and the all the other former and current Bamar militarists are happy to smile and promise to deliver democracy (and perhaps federalism in a new constitution?) to the world in just a couple more years as long as “development” money keeps rolling in, lining their pockets and fortifying their chances of continuing to be a class of oligarchs from a majority ethnic group in a country destined to be ruled under a federalist system.
Storming the DSI building
On December 9th, they also raided the DSI:
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/383981/police-accuse-protesters-of-stealing-from-the-technology-crime-suppression-division
“Police on Monday accused anti-government protesters of breaking into the Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) at Chaeng Wattana government complex and stealing hard drives and other assets….”
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
Bangkok Pundit did a piece a few weeks back that you might find useful. Here’s the link: http://asiancorrespondent.com/117464/asia-foundation-survey-part-1-who-are-the-protesters/
Happy new year
Time for a bhikkhuni sangha?
Buddha ordained women.
Storming the DSI building
” … Thank you Nick for risking your life …” – fairdinkum
The most dangerous place indeed these days is to be anear or alongside Bangkok policeman(men). Nick Nostitz must be the bravest photographer in Bangkok right now.
Thailand’s Police Chief Adul Sangsingkaew says ‘Men-in-black’ are policemen period.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/387609/police-chief-admits-men-who-smashed-up-cars-also-police.
There were certainly ‘Men-in-Black’ during the Ramkhamhaeng U/Rajmangala Stadium riots, and, Nostitz caught such ‘Men-in-Black’ shooter in his photo.
http://www.newmandala.org/2013/12/10/ramkhamhaeng-a-view-from-inside-the-stadium/
Could Nostitz possess nine lives? Be careful of your friends Nostitz, and, be very careful you don’t photo-capture your friends while carrying on vicious deeds and mischiefs.
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
Peter Cohen,
With all due respect, please provide some evidence for your claims that 1) the ARNO (ARIF/RSO) exists and is a significant organization representing some sizable number of the Rohingyah population, 2) that they are “funded by Bangladesh, Malaysia, Pakistan and possible Al-Qaeda (and maybe even Jema’ah Islamiyah in Indonesia)” and 3) that they have carried out acts of terrorism.
As experts and scholars it is simply not enough to make damning statements of this kind without providing evidence of facts. The false allegations of Iraqi WMDs in 2003 made this clear. You may have felt that my comments to your statements earlier were “ideological, inaccurate and skewed” but I was simply taking the evidence you had provided and reexamining it in its entirety.
You may feel strongly that Western militaries should work closely with the Myanmar regime (and other governments) in fighting terrorist organizations and, as an aside, I would agree with that policy but if you really believe that the ARNO is a terrorist organization then you need better evidence than you provided with the Wikileaks memo which in fact, when presented in its entirety, strongly cautions against drawing that conclusion.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
For what it’s worth, I’ve read much of Mr. Marshall’s work online, trying to make sense of current Thai politics. I generally think #thaistory is excellent work and very informative, though sometime there’s more information than I can handle at once. I do note some bias against the “elites”, but I’m a grownup and can take that into consideration. I don’t see it as “pro-Thaksin” so much as an attempt to separate fact from rumor.
I don’t know if he left Reuter’s for the reasons he claims, nor do I much care. I think your online feud is rather childish and parochial, and your insulting tone serves only to make you appear vindictive.
I looked up your book, “Thailand Take 2” on Amazon. It looks like a pleasant read and reasonably accurate, though not very profound. Have you ever written a political analysis comparable to what you are so roundly criticizing here? I would be interested to read it.
Beyond bigotry: Unravelling ethnic violence in Rakhine
#8.2.1.3.1
“No need for a conspiracy when you have a convergence of interests.”
That convergence of interest is the funniest part. Somehow, the global corporations’ wish is funnily the exact wish of not just Than Shwe/ Aung Thaung led Disney Dress-Up “Government” and now ever loyal (to the point of always pimping for them) Aung San Suu Kyi, but also of all the audible and visible journalists and academics. Integrate the Great Nation Burma to the global “Land Loot, Total Destruction and Social Disintegration Economy” now popularly known as “Democracy”. It sure will be fun for a small percentage of the population with the help of trained police and armed forces to isolate and suppress the majority of the citizens according to the “Rule of Law” and supported by the “Media” owned and managed by select few.
This pattern is historically so boringly the same that it is sort of a miracle it still works very well!
But Aung San Suu Kyi being a well made up concoction of “the west” (simply meaning global corporations) does not require any conspiracy theory. Again it seems to be an ever reliable formula. There always is a person they can select on all occasions and then concertedly work via journalists, popular people in show business, academics and this or that prize giving organizations to shine them up. Then use them to control the now accumulated immense cult of them. Worked with Mandela, Dalai Lama, Havel and now this one.
Kudos to the handlers!
Moving away from the consociational model
Interesting views Peter.
Maybe we should start by defining what we mean by elite?
What do you mean when you say elite? Are you referring to the ruling class?
I welcome inputs from everyone — as this is really a defining issue in Malaysia.
Here is Khoo Boo Teik with a different twist on the same issue.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
Here’s a question for you:
After you’ve rounded up every member of the Thaksin clan, their friends, and everyone else who ever was a TRT or Pheu Thai MP – whoever you consider part of the “Thaksin regime” – and you deport, imprison or execute them all, and bulldoze their homes into rubble, and then these “good people” again permit elections (haha), and all those millions of upcountry buffaloes find a new leader who campaigns for greater democracy, aid for the common people, and a relative disempowerment of the privileged minority, what do you think Suthep and his gang will do? Do you seriously believe they will allow him to rule, that they won’t claim he’s a “Thaksinist”, and pull the same stunt again? Do you honestly believe the elite (the 9 richest families are worth US$55.5 billion – 1,776,000,000,000 baht) will ever allow ANYONE to take away their power to run the show?
And then what do you think will happen in a few years, when 3D printers make it possible for anyone to make guns, and both sides are heavily armed?
Moving away from the consociational model
Hi there What.
The link once again.
http://aliran.com/15774.html
Happy to hear why you think it does work, What.
Thanks
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
boon #23.1.2.2.1: “Now I pose this question to you Mr. Marshall: What do you think will become of Thailand once the Crown Prince assumes the throne, AND, Thaksin Shinawatra returns to assume his rightful place (according to him and his Red Shirts followers) as Thai Prime Minister? … While you are…thinking about this very likely scenario in the very near future, I’ll go back with Mr. Suthep and our 500,000 strong (at least) very peaceful protest groups specifically to prevent that very horrible scenario.”
Not only have I thought about this scenario, it’s actually central to the analysis in my article р╕Бр╕ер╕╡р╕вр╕╕р╕Д, which argues that the anti-democracy movement can only be understood when viewed in the context of succession, and specifically as an effort to prevent an alliance of Thaksin and Vajiralongkorn dominating Thailand. So while you seem to think you are disagreeing with me, in fact your comments confirm the accuracy of my thesis. Thank you very much!
Moving away from the consociational model
Okay. Good for you. Where’s the content for us to engage with here? The consociational model does work – just not for you. Yawn.
Storming the DSI building
I’m surprised that the thugs haven’t paid you a breakfast wake up call, since they know who you are.
Keep your head on a swivel, and watch your six. Stay safe.
Moving away from the consociational model
Good luck with that Greg ! Even the NGOs fight among themselves. There needs to be a role model. Or you get anarchy. Like it or not, Malaysia will be ruled by a member of the elite; which country isn’t ? Do you think Mao wasn’t an elitist ? Think again. What Malaysia needs is competent, intelligent, sophisticated, technocratic, multidimensional and (not mandatory, but always helpful), caring leadership. Except perhaps for the last criterion, one is describing a member of the elite, regardless of that individual’s own ideological outlook. Malaysia would not exist were there no Tunku, and he was about as elitist as you can get, but he was also intelligent and understood the diversity of his countrymen and countrywomen and thus the need for a multicultural Malaysia. That understanding steadily dwindled within UMNO, after the Tunku passed on. And, I daresay, I do not think the opposition understands what Malaysia needs, any more than UMNO/BN. Working together is fine, but even in as egalitarian a society as, let’s say, Norway,
they still have to have a Prime Minister, and the Norwegian Prime Minister is even more educated than the already very-well educated
Norwegians, because to lead a nation you have to be. A Malaysia with everyone talking with each other (which I have doubts about anyway)
and a semi-literate and incompetent PM just won’t do Malaysia any good. So, fine, talk all you want, but Malaysia still awaits its true leader somewhere above the horizon.
Storming the DSI building
Congratulations Nick for your brave reporting, considering you and other reporters are now a target for the vicious thugs that are being paid to destroy our country. You now have a new major challenge – to re-invent yourself in order to carry on your work.
Jack be Nimble, Jack be Quick….
Storming the DSI building
Thank you Nick for risking your life to tell the world the truth.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
” … I can assure you I am not making up the fact that the Thai monarch controls all this wealth.” – Andrew MacGregor Marshall
As if a MacGregor Marshall assurance could be reliable and comforting. HMK Bhumibhol certainly lives up to his ‘sufficiency’ theme: no excesses, moderation in practice, and a monarch’s life truly dedicated to his people and especially to the people in need.
Mr. Marshall once mentioned that while the Red Shirts scorn the Thai monarchy, they carry a special space in their hearts for the the Crown Prince. And we also know that the Red Shirts, self-declared protectors of the Thai democracy (ha ha), also carry a very special space in their pockets for one Thaksin Shinawatra and her sister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Now I pose this question to you Mr. Marshall: What do you think will become of Thailand once the Crown Prince assumes the throne, AND, Thaksin Shinawatra returns to assume his rightful place (according to him and his Red Shirts followers) as Thai Prime Minister?
Think about that too Mr. Apivat Hanvongse. While you are both thinking about this very likely scenario in the very near future, I’ll go back with Mr. Suthep and our 500,000 strong (at least) very peaceful protest groups specifically to prevent that very horrible scenario.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
To:
Those were tales told by a bunch of elderly coolies down by the godowns along the chaopraya in songwat. Not historical facts, yet who knows if they are historical un-facts? Those gungho stories, tall tales they might be, of hired chinese mercs during the end of the Iudea era, however, held much joy and intrigue for a child.
No offense at all to Burma.
In my one visit there, I was very impressed with the populance, that show much higher political, social, and critical awareness than Thais. I believe Burma progress would be fast once it started and could potentially overtake Thailand.
One of Thais better kings, Naresuan, grew up in and was trained by Burmese.
I would never describe Burmese with the ‘s’ word as you did.
How to understand Thailand’s conflict
No distinction? A waste of energy? But surely if Apivat could transcend into the PhD cloud, he might stop his annoying habit of amateuresque juxtaposition… or might at least learn what it means.