The increasing income policy is not an unpromisable. As vatei said, the number has been calculated while they need about less than USD 500 millions to do so in a year. The sources to get those funds are:
Angkor Wat Ticket fee: It costs $20 for foreigner to enter for one day but based on the statistics from Ministry of Tourism, they would stay 3 days to discover the area in avearage. Thus, 1 person in average spends $60, and the number of tourists to visit this area is 3 millions in 2012. Therefore, the income of this factor will be about $180 millions while the current government got only $26 millions, so where is the remaining $154 million go? Moreover, the number of tourists is gradually increasing from year to year.
We also could get from the taxes from casino also. There are about 52 main casinos in Cambodia, while the tax rate will be 50% of their profit for this casino industry. Just one of the famous casinos, Naga World, we could get the tax of 125 millions as they get $250 millions as shown on Hong Kong Stock exchange. Therefore, tax from casinos will not be less than $200 USD.
Economic Concession Land Tax: There are more than 3 millions hectars of this economic concession land. Only super rich and big company can get this concession land and pay just $99 for 99 years for 1 hectar. The opposition party will put tax on them about $70 per year, so the income will be more than $210 millions. You would ask me will those investors are willing to pay? Of course, they will pay because they pay even higher for under table money. Plus it is not expensive though.
There are other main sources, such as, taxes on import and export, profit, salary and others. Fighting with corruption will be another main sources too. Those above sources will not affect to the other budget for improvement of the society.
$400 millions is not really a big money for a government as long as they can really fight with corruption.
[…] a conference Aug 21-22 on socio-political and economic issues facing Singapore and Malaysia. Click here to see the list of speakers. It’s free and open to the […]
Not all NGOs working against the issue of human trafficking in Cambodia are bad in the way that just trying to exaggerate the scale of what is happening for the purpose of getting the funding. A lot of social issues in Cambodia including poverty, low awareness and education, corruption, and the political instability resulting in the exploitation and abuse happen to those those women, children, and men and the community that can not protect themselves.
Without the effort of some NGOs and international support the problem could be worst. However, donors and volunteers should be aware of the situation and transparency of the organisation before they wish to support direct financial contribution or publicise the work of the work of the organisation. Inability to provide good quality care for the victims of trafficking or abuse can cause a lot of harm of adding the distress and re-traumatisation.
Some organisations are very well known at international community and get good recognition of doing good work for the victims of trafficking in Cambodia. But the quality of care and the commitment to work collaboratively with others are absolutely poor.
“The régime is trying to develop a centralised system of secure land tenure.”
– It’s centralised alright. So centralised that the régime gets all the land.
We can’t have peasants out in the jungle doing just whatever they please. That would be feudalistic chaos.
Seize their idle, barren, unproductive lands, whip them into discipline, and give the masses proper rubber plantation jobs at $3 per day. We won’t get there overnight but by jove we are sure going to try.
Making Cambodia a better place is sure hard work, but we’re getting there.
And don’t you pay any attention to the new ruling landed class who have seized valuable properties across the country. That would be indulgent and counter-productive. It’s all an inevitable process anyway.
Thank you for this excellent analysis of the rural voters priorities. I had not considered these factors in the voter choice, but they resonate with my research in Kampong Cham where CNRP won convincingly.
In the commune where I am doing research now almost every house in every village seems to have a CPP sticker, but I was told assertively that this ‘is not people’s willingness’.
My own interviews reveal mixed feelings about the garment factory and the rising cost of living. People recognize the opportunities generated by recently constructed roads and the value of the recent electrification of their villages, but at the same time they say they need more money than before. There is an evident desire for more resilient livelihoods which are too dependent on narrow income streams, however it is commonly stated that as much as people would like to do something new in business they are too poor to do so. It is widely expressed that if family members had better incomes from garments, construction, civil service, they would like to invest in new family business or expand what they have.
In summary, I am seeing people who readily imagine the opportunities that could be provided by more capital and the increase in remittances would no doubt be prominent in their calculations. And this could be the reason why CNRP won in the commune I am researching Kampong Cham, despite the overwhelming presence of the CPP. I am definitely going to cite your article in my thesis, thank very much indeed.
T. Greer and Rithy: Thank you very much for your questions. Yes, I did not conduct any thorough fieldwork investigation for this specific puropose to support my argument. It should be for a future research project. I came up with this argument out of my own experience and observations. I grew up in a village. I did my undergraduate study in Phnom Penh. I am a teacher. I have friends and relatives working in garment factories. In 2012 I conducted a seven-month fieldwork in four provinces in Cambodia, in which I had chance to talk to many ordinary people and villagers. From villagers to small traders to teachers to workers to ordinary soldiers, if you observe or listen to their everyday life conversation, you will not be surprise to see that the topics are mainly about earning a living,about household income, about aspirations to own a house, a motorbike….thank you
Kate Grace Frieson: Thanks for your interesting comment and question. I think CNRP has to handle this situation carefully. If they choose to compromise with CPP quickly despite the reported election irregularities, they will be viewed by their supporters as colluding with CPP for power/benefit sharing. If CNRP’s refusal to engage drag on and they eventually stage a mass demonstration, they will surely upset some of their supporters who want to see stability and peaceful transition of power and who do not want to see the repetition of the history of voilence and war in changing the country’s leaders. So the best way for CNRP and CPP not to disappoint their respective voters and to show voters that they truly care about the country and the people is to form an independent committee investigating the election irregularities as soon as possible. The international community also has the obligation to assist this committee in searching for the truth so that the outcome from the investigation is acceptable to both parties especially to all voters.
I would like to thank you that you also have an interest in my thesis. But it is about a different story. It’s about the Preah Vihear temple dispute.
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia–Cambodia’s government has deployed troops in the capital amid a political standoff between Prime Minister Hun Sen’s party and the opposition over disputed election results, though the mood remained calm over the weekend as talks continued on a probe into alleged polling irregularities.
Can someone answer me this simple question? Is this a fair election? If it’s not, then there is no reason for us to even argue about on this topic at all. Kimly, I would challenge you to interview some of the voters who live in the isolated villages, and ask them how they make their decisions on who to vote for? And what do they know about each party? You can’t make a good argument for the article when you still have election fraud and voter intimidation tactics going on there.
a major reason why so many malaysians seem to be persist staying abroad in places like silicon valley, wall street and around cambridge’s harvard-MIT nexus are the lack of readymade opportunities to pursue the work found in stratified economies like the US… and then there’s the political stalemate that’s way past time in being resolved, as Najib and Badawi themselves admit have much to do with their own party’s truculence. And no, those abroad aren’t just non-Malays – it’s one reason why Raya feasting is becoming such a big deal round here in the US!
Calling someone a Traitor presupposes dat person enjoyed all the rights & privileges of Citizenship, which is clearly not the case for Msia’s minorities, & until the day ALL Msians are treated equally, nothing TalentCorp does will seriously impact on the Brain Drain.
Zoe Miles said, “There has not been one fair election since the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, and the sad thing is that even if Hun Sen miraculously was removed from government, there would be 20 other potential dictators to take his place.” That’s all true but there weren’t any fair elections before the Khmer Rouge either: the Cambodian polity hasn’t developed to the stage where democracy is possible. Democracy is possible only when the losers accept the outcome of elections because they perceive them as fair, and resist the temptation to rip the place apart. When they don’t, government falls into the hands of those who make the most effective use of violence, whether or not they have the support of the majority. Even the luckier Thais are struggling to achieve democracy, That is due to a mixture of political corruption and determined opposition by a tiny minority of (also corrupt) princelings and their (also corrupt) toadies.
For all its faults, Hun Sen’s régime has one great strength and virtue, a policy of good relations with Vietnam and Thailand. There are ugly anti-Vietnam and anti-Thai undercurrents in Cambodia, and strong government is needed to suppress them. Land ownership is another difficult problem. The régime is trying to develop a centralised system of secure land tenure. The transition from local feudalism and chaos cannot be achieved there without large-scale grievance and corrupt outcomes. What we regard as corruption is pervasive and inevitable. It won’t get better overnight. Making Cambodia a better place is hard work, but they’re getting there slowly. Putting the blame on individuals is self-indulgent and counter-productive.
“we are never satisfied with what we have and always looking for something more”
Chris Frankland, you hit the nail on the head. And that’s okay, of course. Human nature. What I get irritated with are the stereotypes of Malaysians abroad (traitors!) and those who stay (must be stupid or a crony). We all need to talk to each other and get past this.
Glad you had a good experience with TalentCorp. I think they’re good people with maybe the toughest job in the country.
Just read your article with interest. I’m a brit, and have been happily living and working in education, in Malaysia, for the past 32 years. I recently got a 10 year chop with Talentcorp, which could not have been easier or more straightforward. Tip top organisation. I have many talented Malaysian friends, of all races, who have emigrated, and now in very successful careers in the UK, US, Australia and NZ. I think your comments very much echo their feelings;once Malaysian always Malaysian. But to entice them back is easier said than done. Recent bad political press, and the increase in crime doesn’t help. On the other hand, life here is laid back, very convenient, and of course comparatively much cheaper. I guess the old addage “the grass is always greener on the other side of the hill” rings true. I come over here, they want to go over there. We are never satisfied with what we have, and always looking for something more. The only people who do seem to be happy are the airlines, flying us all in or out.
Perhaps, NM readers may be interested in reading this. It seems that – in light of recent government concerns over coup rumour mongering – clicking like on Facebook may now be (become) a criminal offence in Thailand.
Why Burma should belong to either the US or China is beyond any nationalist’s instincts. The generals are nonetheless playing a dangerous game though taking care not to put China’s nose completely out of joint. Even ASSK the darling of the West has always been very circumspect about China’s geopolitical ambitions and economic designs in relation to Burma, and so she should be. After all you cannot afford to fall out with your biggest neighbour however appealing your new best friend from across town is.
Whilst Balkanisation is a possibility though unlikely (even the Wa have expressed their desire to remain in the union and their distaste about coming under China’s control although the Kachin war seems like the regime has a death wish for the union), a Chinese Protectorate stretches incredulity. The US might succeed meddling under the UN flag but both Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UNSC would certainly make such a move dead in the water.
This obsessive Sinophobia of yours aside, amending the generals’ perfection of a constitution however desirable I’m afraid remains something of a synchronised pissing in the wind. Just hard to be sure who’s kidding whom. You can expect a bit of tweaking here and there but the military to return to their barracks has the chance of a snowball in hell. T
And the West you will find is prepared to live with a military dominated state so long as it can exploit its human and natural resources once the country has become a fully paid up member of the New World Order under the suzerainty of capitalist globalisation.
I agree, there is a difference between cronyism and corruption, but cronyism is a much deeper problem and without getting rid of cronyism (nepotism, patronage etc.), which seems to be quite prevalent in Southeast Asia, you won’t have a chance of dealing with corruption. It may not be apples and oranges but cronyism is often the root cause of corruption, so kill the roots and that will kill the leaves!
Perhaps it is because I am reading Mr. Taleb’s Black Swan right now, but my immediate reaction to this piece is: my heavens, what evidence do you have for any of this? You have demonstrated correlation, not causation. You have provided an interesting hypothesis – but have we a means whereby we can test it? If not, this explanation for Hun Sen’s dimming star is nothing but another just-so story invented post hoc. It explains things so neatly. But how can we now if it is true?
I agree with this analysis of the political shift in rural areas.
I knew huge frustration was there but was surprised it burst out at the ballot box during the 2013 elections. I thought it would be expressed in the 2018 elections because the CPP’s long practised carrot and stick tactics were effective in previous elections. Hearts were not necessarily won by the CPP’s ways and means, but minds were among politically astute folks in rural areas when they voted for the CPP. Also the opposition parties were pretty divided and internally tattered in previous elections. So the numbers analysis connected to livelihoods improvements as offered by a popular opposition figure united with another opposition party is compelling as a political analysis framework for explaining rural voters ballot box choice ( with the crucial inclusion of the rural civil servants especially teachers).
I say this because after living and working in Cambodia for 10 years (2003-2013), and being a UN and academic political analyst of the 1993, 1998, 2003 elections, and spending a great deal of time in researching livelihoods and rural development issues (2005-2013), the rural dwellers message did not essentially change. “We are very poor. We cannot feed our children well. We are worried about our future. The government does not sufficiently look after our health and education and farming needs.”
These people often confided that if certain conditions were present, like a viable opposition party, that one election day, the yawning gap between the materialized social classes and the ever poor rural folk could erupt into a political upset for the ruling party. It was inevitable. The question back in 1998 was whether this would happen in their lifetime or that of the next generation. So it took 15 years. What will happen in the 2018 elections?
My question to the astute writer of this piece is what will happen to the CNRP rural voter base if the CNRP squanders this electoral gain by refusing to act as the legitimate opposition? If the refusal to engage continues, will this be viewed by the courageous voters in rural areas as a disappointing and huge political mis-step that will mire Cambodia further in rural poverty and urban wealth?
Thank you for contributing this piece. I would like to read your doctoral thesis when you are finished.
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Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
The increasing income policy is not an unpromisable. As vatei said, the number has been calculated while they need about less than USD 500 millions to do so in a year. The sources to get those funds are:
Angkor Wat Ticket fee: It costs $20 for foreigner to enter for one day but based on the statistics from Ministry of Tourism, they would stay 3 days to discover the area in avearage. Thus, 1 person in average spends $60, and the number of tourists to visit this area is 3 millions in 2012. Therefore, the income of this factor will be about $180 millions while the current government got only $26 millions, so where is the remaining $154 million go? Moreover, the number of tourists is gradually increasing from year to year.
We also could get from the taxes from casino also. There are about 52 main casinos in Cambodia, while the tax rate will be 50% of their profit for this casino industry. Just one of the famous casinos, Naga World, we could get the tax of 125 millions as they get $250 millions as shown on Hong Kong Stock exchange. Therefore, tax from casinos will not be less than $200 USD.
Economic Concession Land Tax: There are more than 3 millions hectars of this economic concession land. Only super rich and big company can get this concession land and pay just $99 for 99 years for 1 hectar. The opposition party will put tax on them about $70 per year, so the income will be more than $210 millions. You would ask me will those investors are willing to pay? Of course, they will pay because they pay even higher for under table money. Plus it is not expensive though.
There are other main sources, such as, taxes on import and export, profit, salary and others. Fighting with corruption will be another main sources too. Those above sources will not affect to the other budget for improvement of the society.
$400 millions is not really a big money for a government as long as they can really fight with corruption.
Just
Malaysia-Singapore Update 2013
[…] a conference Aug 21-22 on socio-political and economic issues facing Singapore and Malaysia. Click here to see the list of speakers. It’s free and open to the […]
What’s the truth behind Somaly Mam?
Not all NGOs working against the issue of human trafficking in Cambodia are bad in the way that just trying to exaggerate the scale of what is happening for the purpose of getting the funding. A lot of social issues in Cambodia including poverty, low awareness and education, corruption, and the political instability resulting in the exploitation and abuse happen to those those women, children, and men and the community that can not protect themselves.
Without the effort of some NGOs and international support the problem could be worst. However, donors and volunteers should be aware of the situation and transparency of the organisation before they wish to support direct financial contribution or publicise the work of the work of the organisation. Inability to provide good quality care for the victims of trafficking or abuse can cause a lot of harm of adding the distress and re-traumatisation.
Some organisations are very well known at international community and get good recognition of doing good work for the victims of trafficking in Cambodia. But the quality of care and the commitment to work collaboratively with others are absolutely poor.
Review of Cambodia’s Curse
“The régime is trying to develop a centralised system of secure land tenure.”
– It’s centralised alright. So centralised that the régime gets all the land.
We can’t have peasants out in the jungle doing just whatever they please. That would be feudalistic chaos.
Seize their idle, barren, unproductive lands, whip them into discipline, and give the masses proper rubber plantation jobs at $3 per day. We won’t get there overnight but by jove we are sure going to try.
Making Cambodia a better place is sure hard work, but we’re getting there.
And don’t you pay any attention to the new ruling landed class who have seized valuable properties across the country. That would be indulgent and counter-productive. It’s all an inevitable process anyway.
Move along now.
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
Thank you for this excellent analysis of the rural voters priorities. I had not considered these factors in the voter choice, but they resonate with my research in Kampong Cham where CNRP won convincingly.
In the commune where I am doing research now almost every house in every village seems to have a CPP sticker, but I was told assertively that this ‘is not people’s willingness’.
My own interviews reveal mixed feelings about the garment factory and the rising cost of living. People recognize the opportunities generated by recently constructed roads and the value of the recent electrification of their villages, but at the same time they say they need more money than before. There is an evident desire for more resilient livelihoods which are too dependent on narrow income streams, however it is commonly stated that as much as people would like to do something new in business they are too poor to do so. It is widely expressed that if family members had better incomes from garments, construction, civil service, they would like to invest in new family business or expand what they have.
In summary, I am seeing people who readily imagine the opportunities that could be provided by more capital and the increase in remittances would no doubt be prominent in their calculations. And this could be the reason why CNRP won in the commune I am researching Kampong Cham, despite the overwhelming presence of the CPP. I am definitely going to cite your article in my thesis, thank very much indeed.
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
T. Greer and Rithy: Thank you very much for your questions. Yes, I did not conduct any thorough fieldwork investigation for this specific puropose to support my argument. It should be for a future research project. I came up with this argument out of my own experience and observations. I grew up in a village. I did my undergraduate study in Phnom Penh. I am a teacher. I have friends and relatives working in garment factories. In 2012 I conducted a seven-month fieldwork in four provinces in Cambodia, in which I had chance to talk to many ordinary people and villagers. From villagers to small traders to teachers to workers to ordinary soldiers, if you observe or listen to their everyday life conversation, you will not be surprise to see that the topics are mainly about earning a living,about household income, about aspirations to own a house, a motorbike….thank you
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
Kate Grace Frieson: Thanks for your interesting comment and question. I think CNRP has to handle this situation carefully. If they choose to compromise with CPP quickly despite the reported election irregularities, they will be viewed by their supporters as colluding with CPP for power/benefit sharing. If CNRP’s refusal to engage drag on and they eventually stage a mass demonstration, they will surely upset some of their supporters who want to see stability and peaceful transition of power and who do not want to see the repetition of the history of voilence and war in changing the country’s leaders. So the best way for CNRP and CPP not to disappoint their respective voters and to show voters that they truly care about the country and the people is to form an independent committee investigating the election irregularities as soon as possible. The international community also has the obligation to assist this committee in searching for the truth so that the outcome from the investigation is acceptable to both parties especially to all voters.
I would like to thank you that you also have an interest in my thesis. But it is about a different story. It’s about the Preah Vihear temple dispute.
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
PHNOM PENH, Cambodia–Cambodia’s government has deployed troops in the capital amid a political standoff between Prime Minister Hun Sen’s party and the opposition over disputed election results, though the mood remained calm over the weekend as talks continued on a probe into alleged polling irregularities.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323838204579002400010173412.html
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
Can someone answer me this simple question? Is this a fair election? If it’s not, then there is no reason for us to even argue about on this topic at all. Kimly, I would challenge you to interview some of the voters who live in the isolated villages, and ask them how they make their decisions on who to vote for? And what do they know about each party? You can’t make a good argument for the article when you still have election fraud and voter intimidation tactics going on there.
Behind Malaysia’s brain drain, surprise! Real people
a major reason why so many malaysians seem to be persist staying abroad in places like silicon valley, wall street and around cambridge’s harvard-MIT nexus are the lack of readymade opportunities to pursue the work found in stratified economies like the US… and then there’s the political stalemate that’s way past time in being resolved, as Najib and Badawi themselves admit have much to do with their own party’s truculence. And no, those abroad aren’t just non-Malays – it’s one reason why Raya feasting is becoming such a big deal round here in the US!
Behind Malaysia’s brain drain, surprise! Real people
Calling someone a Traitor presupposes dat person enjoyed all the rights & privileges of Citizenship, which is clearly not the case for Msia’s minorities, & until the day ALL Msians are treated equally, nothing TalentCorp does will seriously impact on the Brain Drain.
Review of Cambodia’s Curse
Zoe Miles said, “There has not been one fair election since the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, and the sad thing is that even if Hun Sen miraculously was removed from government, there would be 20 other potential dictators to take his place.” That’s all true but there weren’t any fair elections before the Khmer Rouge either: the Cambodian polity hasn’t developed to the stage where democracy is possible. Democracy is possible only when the losers accept the outcome of elections because they perceive them as fair, and resist the temptation to rip the place apart. When they don’t, government falls into the hands of those who make the most effective use of violence, whether or not they have the support of the majority. Even the luckier Thais are struggling to achieve democracy, That is due to a mixture of political corruption and determined opposition by a tiny minority of (also corrupt) princelings and their (also corrupt) toadies.
For all its faults, Hun Sen’s régime has one great strength and virtue, a policy of good relations with Vietnam and Thailand. There are ugly anti-Vietnam and anti-Thai undercurrents in Cambodia, and strong government is needed to suppress them. Land ownership is another difficult problem. The régime is trying to develop a centralised system of secure land tenure. The transition from local feudalism and chaos cannot be achieved there without large-scale grievance and corrupt outcomes. What we regard as corruption is pervasive and inevitable. It won’t get better overnight. Making Cambodia a better place is hard work, but they’re getting there slowly. Putting the blame on individuals is self-indulgent and counter-productive.
Behind Malaysia’s brain drain, surprise! Real people
“we are never satisfied with what we have and always looking for something more”
Chris Frankland, you hit the nail on the head. And that’s okay, of course. Human nature. What I get irritated with are the stereotypes of Malaysians abroad (traitors!) and those who stay (must be stupid or a crony). We all need to talk to each other and get past this.
Glad you had a good experience with TalentCorp. I think they’re good people with maybe the toughest job in the country.
Behind Malaysia’s brain drain, surprise! Real people
Just read your article with interest. I’m a brit, and have been happily living and working in education, in Malaysia, for the past 32 years. I recently got a 10 year chop with Talentcorp, which could not have been easier or more straightforward. Tip top organisation. I have many talented Malaysian friends, of all races, who have emigrated, and now in very successful careers in the UK, US, Australia and NZ. I think your comments very much echo their feelings;once Malaysian always Malaysian. But to entice them back is easier said than done. Recent bad political press, and the increase in crime doesn’t help. On the other hand, life here is laid back, very convenient, and of course comparatively much cheaper. I guess the old addage “the grass is always greener on the other side of the hill” rings true. I come over here, they want to go over there. We are never satisfied with what we have, and always looking for something more. The only people who do seem to be happy are the airlines, flying us all in or out.
Review of Cambodia’s Curse
The recent election tells it all.
Hun Sen is hated and loathed by almost all and with absolutely good reason.
Shane … contact me please
[email protected]
What’s going on with the Thai Printing Act?
Perhaps, NM readers may be interested in reading this. It seems that – in light of recent government concerns over coup rumour mongering – clicking like on Facebook may now be (become) a criminal offence in Thailand.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Liking-political-rumours-is-a-crime-30212365.html
Apologies if this in the ‘wrong’ thread. Please feel free to move elsewhere.
Constitutional amendment for Myanmar
Why Burma should belong to either the US or China is beyond any nationalist’s instincts. The generals are nonetheless playing a dangerous game though taking care not to put China’s nose completely out of joint. Even ASSK the darling of the West has always been very circumspect about China’s geopolitical ambitions and economic designs in relation to Burma, and so she should be. After all you cannot afford to fall out with your biggest neighbour however appealing your new best friend from across town is.
Whilst Balkanisation is a possibility though unlikely (even the Wa have expressed their desire to remain in the union and their distaste about coming under China’s control although the Kachin war seems like the regime has a death wish for the union), a Chinese Protectorate stretches incredulity. The US might succeed meddling under the UN flag but both Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UNSC would certainly make such a move dead in the water.
This obsessive Sinophobia of yours aside, amending the generals’ perfection of a constitution however desirable I’m afraid remains something of a synchronised pissing in the wind. Just hard to be sure who’s kidding whom. You can expect a bit of tweaking here and there but the military to return to their barracks has the chance of a snowball in hell. T
And the West you will find is prepared to live with a military dominated state so long as it can exploit its human and natural resources once the country has become a fully paid up member of the New World Order under the suzerainty of capitalist globalisation.
Corruption in Malaysia and Singapore
I agree, there is a difference between cronyism and corruption, but cronyism is a much deeper problem and without getting rid of cronyism (nepotism, patronage etc.), which seems to be quite prevalent in Southeast Asia, you won’t have a chance of dealing with corruption. It may not be apples and oranges but cronyism is often the root cause of corruption, so kill the roots and that will kill the leaves!
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
Perhaps it is because I am reading Mr. Taleb’s Black Swan right now, but my immediate reaction to this piece is: my heavens, what evidence do you have for any of this? You have demonstrated correlation, not causation. You have provided an interesting hypothesis – but have we a means whereby we can test it? If not, this explanation for Hun Sen’s dimming star is nothing but another just-so story invented post hoc. It explains things so neatly. But how can we now if it is true?
-TG
http://www.scholars-stage.blogspot.com
Rethinking Cambodia’s political transformation
I agree with this analysis of the political shift in rural areas.
I knew huge frustration was there but was surprised it burst out at the ballot box during the 2013 elections. I thought it would be expressed in the 2018 elections because the CPP’s long practised carrot and stick tactics were effective in previous elections. Hearts were not necessarily won by the CPP’s ways and means, but minds were among politically astute folks in rural areas when they voted for the CPP. Also the opposition parties were pretty divided and internally tattered in previous elections. So the numbers analysis connected to livelihoods improvements as offered by a popular opposition figure united with another opposition party is compelling as a political analysis framework for explaining rural voters ballot box choice ( with the crucial inclusion of the rural civil servants especially teachers).
I say this because after living and working in Cambodia for 10 years (2003-2013), and being a UN and academic political analyst of the 1993, 1998, 2003 elections, and spending a great deal of time in researching livelihoods and rural development issues (2005-2013), the rural dwellers message did not essentially change. “We are very poor. We cannot feed our children well. We are worried about our future. The government does not sufficiently look after our health and education and farming needs.”
These people often confided that if certain conditions were present, like a viable opposition party, that one election day, the yawning gap between the materialized social classes and the ever poor rural folk could erupt into a political upset for the ruling party. It was inevitable. The question back in 1998 was whether this would happen in their lifetime or that of the next generation. So it took 15 years. What will happen in the 2018 elections?
My question to the astute writer of this piece is what will happen to the CNRP rural voter base if the CNRP squanders this electoral gain by refusing to act as the legitimate opposition? If the refusal to engage continues, will this be viewed by the courageous voters in rural areas as a disappointing and huge political mis-step that will mire Cambodia further in rural poverty and urban wealth?
Thank you for contributing this piece. I would like to read your doctoral thesis when you are finished.