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Right now, an end to the ongoing standoff between the People’s Alliance for Democracy and the Thai government seems as distant as ever. We will probably not be making any substantial posts on the situation in Bangkok over the next day or so. But we are, as always, very keen to host comments that make informed contributions to understanding the conflict. If you have something to say please post it as a comment to this open thread and we will moderate it as soon as we can. Thank you for your patience and insights.
As far as I’m concerned, the sooner the police / armed forces move in and clear out Sondhi/Chamlong’s hapless pawns from Suwarnabhumi and Don Muang, the better. Arrest them and charge them in full accordance with whatever laws they’ve broken. After all, these are the folk who go on about the importance of the rule of law.
I neither like nor care for Thaksin. I neither like nor care for the PAD. It pains me to say, though, that maybe an appointed government (appointed by whom – let’s not think about that) might be the best choice for Thailand. It’s simply futile to try and view what’s happening here through the prism of logic, or to attempt to fit a Western style democratic template onto the chaos. Vote buying is and always has been the order of the day. Of course, what Sondhi et al don’t say is that while many in the NE took money for their votes, they would have voted for TRT / PPP in any case because they liked their policies. TRT was, after all, the first political party that actually enunciated a clear policy platform.
But forget all this. What really matters, here and now, is that Thailand’s economy is on the fast track to failure. Exports are slumping and we’re starting to see the first mass lay-offs in the manufacturing sector. The tourism / hospitality is therefore of even greater importance. Now, thanks to the venal intransigence of the PAD leadership, incalculable damage has been done to a critical sector of the economy at a time when it can least afford it. The PAD has been handing out free meals willy-nilly at its rallies and at the airport – will they also take responsibility for feeding the tens of thousands who are going to lose their livelihoods as a result of their latest actions?
“Oh, but Thaksin is a bad man, and this government is his evil puppet parliament. It’s all his fault, or Somchai’s fault for not resigning!” Please. Take a step back, forget Thaksin, and focus on the future. Focus on the fact that a generation of failure to to invest in the education sector means that Thailand is now disadvantaged yet further as it competes with countries such as Malaysia, The Philippines and Indonesia.
Roll on the riot police.
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Do the police cut you some slack when you transgress? I think not.
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from The Nation newspaper Saturday morning:
——————————————————————-
Chamlong alerts protesters to move from Government House to Bangkok airport
Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy, woke up protesters inside the government House complex at 6 am Saturday, telling them to get ready to travel to the Suvarnabhumi International Airport.
The protesters were told to board buses at the Nang Lerng Racecourse at 7 am.
The were told to bring along foods and drinking water.
———————————————————————-
The open and public movement of reinforcements from Government House to the Airport?!
In the middle of the day in the center of the Capital?!
With no interference or response from the nation’s police or army?!
With no attempt to arrest or detain the Organizers?!
Thailand and the Thai Army are becoming the laughingstock of the world…………….
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With Chamlong and Sondhi seemingly leading their herd of buffalos into a perilous standoff with the police, it is becoming increasingly clear that PAD have hedged their bets on the inevitable outcome (having quite possibly known all along) of the Constitution Court ruling – that is that PPP (and other coalition parties?) will be dissolved on Tuesday, and an interim administration appointed.
Thus, a judicial coup (with the military’s fingerprints all over it, given its role in drafting the 07 constitution) and victory for PAD, who will no doubt play a major role in any new regime.
The end of democracy, and the disenfranchisement of the majority rural electorate. The problem is, how will the masses react? The rhetoric of the red shirts suggests blood. Is there a contingency plan in place to counter this reaction?
I will leave the timing of all this (given that the Constitution Court decision appears set for just three days before the King’s Birthday) for others to speculate.
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And another thing…
Given the largely favorable international coverage of the PAD, a judicial coup will appear far more palatable to outsiders than a direct military intervention.
Thus to the misinformed casual observer (such as those of us in Australia exposed to the lame efforts of the ABC’s correspondent and other lazy so-called journalists), it will appear as if ‘democracy’ has emerged the winner, more than likely eliciting a muted reaction from the international community.
Paradoxically, in the view of the aforementioned media coverage, any violent reaction from the red shirts might therefore be viewed as counter to the force led by the People’s Alliance for ‘Democracy’.
Never underestimate the power of the media in all this. Sondhi, after all is a master of it.
Thanks all for allowing me to ‘think aloud’.
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Tony Loader…
agree with your posts but I am shocked and horrified if its true that the international press are actually at all favourable to the PAD, the press I have, selectively, seen has seemed unfavourable…
if its true I am in despair… Sondhi is the Goebbels and the Hitler seems to be a small group of Thai elite.
We will join the Truth Today red shirt group who will gather Sunday 4pm in a show of numbers supporting the government.
I am hoping that at least 100,000 people will gather (as they did on Nov 1) just to show the anti-democratic groups how much ordinary people of Thailand disapprove of the PAD and their backers.
at this stage I have to say I think the Kings Birthday celebrations are being overshadowed and may even be something that the mass of ordinary Thai people are starting find somewhat out of place compared to this political struggle.
the judicial coup that is being discussed is sullied by the history and actions of the courts that were restructured and the judges that were appointed by the military CNS after 2006 coup and the red shirts are likely to resist any government imposed by anyone.
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Tony: look at Bangkok Pundit’s commentary that uses a lot of material from good foreign journalists in Bangkok. They are doing a great job it seems. The ABC seems an exception in continuing to use a reporter who has learned very little in her time in Thailand. The others who are getting out and reporting on the airport and so on seem to be doing a great job. BTW, my reading of the international press does not show much support for PAD. German state TV, for example, has been heavily critical.
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I am appalled and furious at the expat farang’s shrill demands for death and destruction. Go back to America!
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Bosunji – I don’t know about other posters, but I’m not American. “Go back to America!” … Bit difficult to get out of Thailand at the moment …
The last thing reasonable people want to see is death and destruction, although we’re already seeing the death and destruction of the Thai economy. If you understand irony, then you’ll appreciate that, paradoxically, the people who are going to be hurt most by the airport closures are, in fact, hard-working middle-class PAD supporters – or at least those who currently have some sort of job in the tourism and travel industry. At least many factory / construction workers / taxi drivers have the last resort option of returning to their villages.
That said, how does a hard-working middle-class PAD supporter find the time to leave their job to go and sit at the airports for five days (and counting)? Hmm. So just who ARE all those people sitting on their mats?
A closing thought – watching Reuang Lao Chao Nee at the moment (popular morning news programme on Channel 3), I see Sorayut and the other anchors are wearing purple. Is purple the new yellow, I wonder?
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What the PAD are proposing 70%:30%
Is this because they find the Democrat’s Shadow Govt ineffective?
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Ralph, I agree with you that there are a number of international journos doing a good job – it’s just that by and large, the Australian audience isn’t hearing them.
I’m getting a little tired of fielding questions from friends and family who are misinformed by the pathetic coverage from the ABC, SBS (via the Al Jazeera correspondent), and the popular Murdoch press which dominates the town where I live. And right now, of course, it’s all about getting ‘Aussies’ out of Thailand. Nothing else really matters, apparently.
BTW, the ‘judicial coup’ theory is looking a good bet right at the moment.
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every move seems like a strategic move of a commander or such would do. I can see no coherent reason where one event explains another in Thai news. The PAD are giving the reasons, but it is not logical.
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@ David Brown – “just to show the anti-democratic groups how much ordinary people of Thailand disapprove of the PAD and their backers”
Once again we have an extremist viewpoint. You’re either right or you’re wrong – right? No, wrong.
The fact is that many ordinary people approve of the PAD, many and not just Bangkok’s urban elite but people in the provinces too.
The issue, the very sad and dangerous issue is that Thailand is polarized like never before; and I believe what the vast majority of the “ordinary people of Thailand” want is for us to get back to the middle of the road – rather than the shrill rhetoric, of fascist, communist and the like. Red shirts, yellow shirts and joining either side simply increases the polarization.
It is time to stop this and come back to talking, not shouting, at each other and where impasse is reached to agree to disagree. I have seen many posts where Ferang (I am one btw who’s been here 20 years) say, send the police in and if they happen to kill a bunch of people so what – this is a cruel and childish viewpoint.
There is violence on both sides – that is clear. There are good points on both sides. there are bad points on both sides.
It is time for the silent majority to take back the middle ground and insist that the extremist factions are sidelined.
By joining the Truth Today protest you are helping to polarize the country further, (by the way the theme tune for the truth today is “Battle Hymn of the Republic – last used in the American Civil war), not a good thing.
Peace brother.
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BKKOptimist…
“many” is a bit hard to quantify… and of course the PAD has now lost a “lot” that were somewhat persuaded by the PAD, profoundly negative, anti-Thaksin position… so lets agree that “many” minus “lot” still support the PAD
meanwhile it seems to me that we have 4 shades of grey groups:
1. those that believe Thailand should be governed by a fully elected parliament and executive (prime minister and cabinet)
2. those that believe Thailand should be governed by a few self-selected families
3. those that imagine its might be possible to have a mix of the two
(but we actually know the self-selected families would make sure they dominate)
4. those that have not engaged and at the moment dont really care what government is in place
the options 2, 3 and 4 all mean that ordinary Thai people willbe disenfranchised (they wont be able to vote or their vote will not be taken into account)
I think the PAD leadership are working (paid) for the self-selected families and between them are trying to work out what they might be able to achieve in the continuum of 2 and 3.
the current government and its supporters are working to return to 1. under a constitution preferably based on the 1997 version (the only democratic constituiton Thailand had created)
and, I think the majority are in group 1 and I reckon its a good tune..
I just met a young guy from Pattaya (at the red rally)… he said he was offered B5,000 per day by the PAD and they would supply weapons for him to work as a guard. “Most” of his friends singned up, he thinks Thaksin was good for the country and has been listening to Truth Today and came from Pataya to the rally.
and Suechana Sudcharoen of Phra Nakhon district ordered 11 schools closed today because the red rally was on last night… I would be very interested in his explanation:
– excessive caution and quite unwarranted at the least?
– perhaps he is colour blind and thinks the reds are like the yellows and the reds would use the kids as hostages/shields?
– he is concerned that the yellows might arrive late, on Monday and cause trouble?
– he is running for office and wants to get the kids vote?
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I think all parties want 1, but differ greatly on how to to get there given the economic disparity and the opportunity for corruption (which by the way is the biggest problem that Thailand faces).
The problem comes when one family dominates that so called Democratic process. But this is what I mean about polarization – all the reds are good and all the yellows are bad and paid for…
… it is jst too simplistic and doesn’t take into account that there are good-intentioned people on both sides as well as the opposite of that.
My point is that out of say 63m Thai people, I would say (excluding the children call that 23m) that 42.5M simply want a safe, secure future filled with hope for their kids. and these people are silent suffering under the shriek, shrill voices of extremism and naivete combined.
If you really studied the full comments of both sides – they do actually want the same thing (as a body of people, who knows the minds of their extremist leaders) – they differ in how to get there.
The PAD are saying that the rural masses that voted for Dr. Thaksin really need to know what they are voting for; which in the PAD opinion is a dictatorship. From my time watching and listening to Thaksin I don’t think they were wrong.
What we need – is someone who is truly respected to come out with a roadmap to 1. Specific steps, timing, etc with specific and very harsh rules for corruption (like lethal injection), rather than a slap on the wrist and a transfer to an inactive post.
Peace Brother
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DB- My impression (in a Northern rural setting) is that a plurality fall into 4. Even with a certain reverence for elections- be they local local level or Obama/Clinton (McCain never existed in my area)- I don’t think that there is a sense of direct connection between BKK and their lives. That, of course, would put them in line with other countries, where in any given election a plurality of eligible voters will decide that the outcome is irrelevant to them, too.
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Bkk Optimist: you say that “By joining the Truth Today protest you are helping to polarize the country further, (by the way the theme tune for the truth today is “Battle Hymn of the Republic – last used in the American Civil war), not a good thing.”
I don’t get it. Why is this. Are you saying to stay away from PAD too? Then you’d be closer to neutral.
BTW, you must have been away for a while. The Battle Hymn of the Republic is still used and fairly often: see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Battle_Hymn_of_the_Republic
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I must have missed this before in the Nation (here from Bernama.com):
**Thanong Khanthong, the editor of The Nation … wrote that the Thai political crisis had been singularly revolving around this pot of gold of 76 billion baht.
“Pojaman (Thaksin wife) almost landed in Thailand (last Thursday) along with Somchai to pave the way for her ex-husband’s return. Somchai would like to hang on his premiership as long as possible
to prepare for Pojaman’s return. Pojaman would like to clear all the cases against her and her husband and get a chunk of her family’s 76 billion baht, now being frozen at the banks, back in return for Somchai to dissolve Parliament. But this deal could not get through,” he wrote.**
So that’s the reason for the airport seizures. And all the time I thought it was because the government was going to change the constitution and have the privy council murdered.
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@ ralph – guess I should have said most widely associated with the American Civil war – I think most non nit-picking, semantic seeking individuals would have understood the reference.
And no I am not neutral, I am against the extremists on both sides; perhaps then proactive neutrality…
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The saddest part of this whole mess is the Ameristanization of Thailand.
The Red-Blue, DEM-GOP, Pepsi-Coke, Ford-Chevy metric that the elites in the west have so successfully employed to divide their citizens and keep them fighting about silly nonsense all the while moving stealthily around behind them, unzipping and preparing to “service the account”!
I left Ameristan for good because of this years ago.
Ameristanis won’t be satisfied until the whole world looks sounds and acts like every pathetic small town across Ameristan.
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Bangkok Pundit and AFP are reporting PAD has announced that flights can resume from both airports immediately.
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Matichon reporting airport to remain closed until 15DEC. Is this to satisfy int’l “authorities” that the airport is “secure”? Earlier it was reported that it will take “at least a week” to restore operations after the successful protesters leave.
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Here’s my take on the whole sorry episode –
Strategy to hold power “legally” ad infinitum
By now it has become quite apparent that the the military / elite complex is behind this “silent” coup in Thailand. The juditiary has found the PPP violated the laws and has been disbanded. Everyone and his neighbour in Thailand has known this would be the case and “judgement day” will be in early december. Why then did the PAD go through such a destructive and disruptive pretense to demanding the PM and the Govt resign? It is already a given that the PM and the govt will have to be dissolved.
It is quite simple really, and a simpleton approah to strategy, ignoring the damage it will do to the country as a whole. The military / elite complex knows that their sponsored political party has no hope of actually winning an election. The last coup and military appointed govt showed that in no uncertain terms. Despite all the new rules and cntrol of the election commission, the military sponsored party still lost.
If the mlitary / elite simply wait for the courts to dissolve parliement, an electon will have to be held within a fixed time frame. TRT re-incarnate will simply win again, having the real support from the bulk of Thais. To avoid this lost, the military / elite complex must get to appoint the govt and then have the excuse to not hold an election within a fix time frame. In order to do that, they need destruction and disruption – hence the PAD and the unimaginable (for outside observers) actions that were taken and the lack of lawful enforcements.
Now that the govt is dissolved, the next step is to change even more of the constituton to ensure a more permanent “legal” govt that cannot be pushed out by an election. An eection when it is finally held (my guess is two to three years time) will be so hand-tied that the miltary sponsored party will have to really shoot themselves in the foot to lose. HOwever, even that may be deemed too risky and the appointed govt may change the representation in govt to mainly appointed and have a token representation by election. This will guarantee “legal” permanence.
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Bosunj
It is obvious that it will take time to reopen the airport not to ‘satisfy int’l authorites’ but because the whole place has been occupied by a bunch of half wits who have disconnected the cctv cameras and generally made a huge mess of a delicate mechanism. Even the computer systems will take time to reboot and re calibrate – this aiport will not be able to function as it was for weeks or even months so say bye bye to a huge percentage of the tourists who would have come for the holiday season, and also to all the business people who will take their custom to more reliable nations like India and Bangladesh. Its a sad situation for Thailand. The PAD have done far more damage to Thailand than Thaksin ever did – I am no fan of Thaksin but under his rule Thai thrived economically and now it is headed for a deep black hole which it could take years to get out of.
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What is obvious Morgan is that like many misguided people you judge quality of life by the amount of Baht you can make or have. That is sad. To have gotten caught up in consumerist silliness that is ultimately unsatisfactory because you can never have enough, there is always something new that you just can’t live without. All you do is transfer your wealth and freedom (as in slave to money and stuff) to some corporate loser like Thaksin or any corporate scumbag. Very sad.
As for a deep black hole you fear, the whole world is headed into a deep black hole caused by the kind of extremist-capitalist model America has embraced and shoved down the throats of many countries. Everything the so-called experts are doing is making the situation worse by the day. The biggest economy on the planet has CREATED out of thin air more than 7 TRILLION dollars since September! More than 60% of GDP! In THREE months. And, it hasn’t worked! Nothing is working. Governance world wide is broken beyond repair! The scary deep black hole you fear is even scarier, deeper and darker than you can imagine.
If it makes you feel better to blame the deep black hole on PAD, or al Qaeda or the tooth fairy so you can get to sleep at night then go right ahead.
Chok dee
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bosunj:
Absolute sympathy for your complaints about a sadly materialist/consumerist Thailand. But it didn’t start with Thaksin. It flourished during the pre-1997 go-go years, when Thailand’s rich put their considerable extra cash in vanity projects such as hotels, and every striving (and over-leveraged) upper middle class Thai was buying a Benz while keeping the rest of the cash in dodgy shares.
As for helping fellow Thais, there was, from what I can see, very little in the way of private charity or public projects. The era is well worth reviewing.
You raise, inadvertently I think, questions that have not been much discussed in English about the social roots of the PAD, such as the globalization bogey (people are upset when it takes, but happily reaped the rewards when it gave pre-1997.) At a glance, a rough historical parallel might be after the Great Depression of the 1930s when virtually every country affected saw a rise of nativist/nationalist/xenophobic sentiment.
I don’t want to stretch the point too much, but where nativist/nationalist/xenophobic sentiment was embraced, there was disaster. That suggests to me that adaptation rather than resistance to changing circumstances (such as globalization) is a more productive course, though of course I am simplifying
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Ralph:
Thanong prints as fact every rumor that he hears from his Royalist-Democrat friends. His track record is appalling — review his material going back to September 2006 and you will see for yourself.
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amberwaves
thanks for your brief on the anti-globalisation bogey related to the roots of the PAD…
have you seen the article at:
http://thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/buhtan-style-of-development-planned-closure-of-airport-just-the-first-step/
and my comment….
the PAD was involved in a meeting where there was discussion of a
desired model for Thailand….
they discussed Bhutan and closing off business with the outside world
seemed to be a theme, maybe plausible as the CNS did a bit of that
my view is that the rich families should do a rapid course in how to
survive in a democratic country
then they can start a Bhutan party if that is their dream and try to
sieze power via the ballot box…
but this made me think….
just wondering if they decided:
what their target value of Gross National Happiness GNH will be?
or will they target the highest Gross Density of Buffaloes GDB?
or highest Density of Oppressed People Index DOPI?
etc
like I say, Bhutan sounds much too gentle, the PAD seem more like the Khmer Rouge than any one else I can think of….
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Bosunj
I am not the person you stereotype me as for a start I am not rich and not caught up in the whole consumer hype which Thailand has embraced with such enthusiasm. I object to the PAD and the airport protest because I think it is damaging to Thailand economically and socially – the fact that global economic conditions are deteriorating is reason to be shrewd and to work to maintain the economic strength that Thailand has developed. in shutting down the airport PAD has done more damage to Thailand that Thaksin they have severely damaged one of the worlds most successful tourist industries and threatened the lively hood of a massive amount people. In any other country this would never be allowed to happen – for a privilaged minority to poison the results of a democratic election and hold a nation to ransom so that they can with hold the right of the rural poor to participate in the political process – WTF?
With regards to the global economic situation I am very aware of the depth of it and how dubious and foolish the measures taken are I am not keen to blame the woes on the world on al queda or PAD as you suggest. I think there is a lot of similarity between the dude who funded PAD and Thaksin they are both very rich powerful people who use their influence to distort and deprive the basic rights of their fellow citizens.
Bosunj you dismiss the distress caused to displaced passengers – 350,000 people is a lot people to upset and the extent of the problems this will have caused is obviously beyond your simplistic comprehension – Maybe you can help pay the hundreds of millions this fiasco has cost the nation. Surely this vast amount of money could have been spent to improve the life of the rural poor that are so despised by you and the PAD maybe then they will vote in a way that is more popular with you and the BKK elite classes.
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amberwaves: It seems Thanong’s task is to create rumours and misinformation as a mouthpiece for PAD.
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PAD seem more like the Khmer Rouge……
Yes indeed, bodies are stacked like cord wood all over the grounds of both airports and Government House! News at eleven!
Yet more hyperbole from the extremist-capitalists.
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for a privilaged minority to poison the results of a democratic election
Apparently you weren’t paying attention. The Justices unanimously found that PPP violated election laws. Therefore, the “election” was anything but democratic!
and hold a nation to ransom
What nation were you in during this time? I’ve been in BKK for ten years. I have not been inconvenienced or held ransom. PAD has done nothing that negatively affects me or most people who live here.
so that they can with hold the right of the rural poor to participate in the political process..
PAD isn’t withholding anyone’s rights. Whether they be rural poor, wealthy scumbags in their private jets or anyone in between.
With regards to the global economic situation I am very aware of the depth of it and how dubious and foolish the measures taken are
That being the case you are well aware that anything PAD is doing is inconsequential. As we are mere weeks away from a total worldwide collapse there aren’t going to be any tourist coming here any way.
I think there is a lot of similarity between the dude who funded PAD and Thaksin they are both very rich powerful people who use their influence to distort and deprive the basic rights of their fellow citizens.
I have no concrete details of the “dude” funding PAD as to be able to speak authoritatively one way or another about “him”.
As for Thaksin, a convicted criminal, a monomaniacal fascist scumbag who used his billions to create his own political party because none of the established ones wanted anything to do with his sociopathic tendencies, who then used more of his billions to buy votes in areas that had previously been ignored and who then used his position as Premier to steal multiple millions of Baht of the peoples money! He and members of TRT/PPP/??? should be banned for life. Thaksin should be in the dock at The Hague for crimes against humanity for the extrajudicial killings undertaken by his anti drugs campaign.
you dismiss the distress caused to displaced passengers – 350,000 people is a lot people to upset and the extent of the problems this will have caused is obviously beyond your simplistic comprehension
I recognize that people were inconvenienced by the inability to fly out of BKK for a week.
I know that had I needed to leave Thailand during that week I would have had no problem going wherever I wanted to go.
I certainly would not have wailed about how awful those mean people were treating me.
Therein lies the basis for the contempt you are alluding I hold.
Contempt for people who undertake international travel when they don’t have sufficient resources for these kinds of contingencies.
Contempt for people who wail rather than act. Who blame whoever is the meanie-du-jour rather than solve their own problem. They wanted to fly from BKK. They could not. Why didn’t they get on a train or bus or van or rent a car and drive to KL or Penang?
Then again had I been a tourist, I may have just accepted that the situation was beyond my control, extend my stay and enjoyed this beautiful Kingdom for a week or two longer. TAT handing out up to 2k Baht a day for room and board, heck yeah!
the rural poor that are so despised by you
I do not despise the rural poor, nor do I despise the metropolitan poor! How dare you!
I do despise Thaksin, cry babies and westerners who try to apply their ideas in an effort to make sense out of how or why things are done the way they’re done in Thailand or any other country other than the one they come from.
If you are unable or unwilling to accept that things are different, that rules you are comfortable with don’t apply everywhere then stay at home!
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Morgan and others,
When a PAD supporter engages the PAD based logic, the whole point of intellectual discourse goes out the window
EG – (hope the PAD don’t take up on this idea)
Robber confronts man in street;
Robber : hand over your wallet!
man : No, I have my hard earned money in it.
Robber shoots man in the leg. Man collapses screaming in pain and writhing on the ground. Bullet went through man’s leg and breaks shop window.
PAD appears on the scene.
PAD : man, see what you have done? you caused the shop window to be broken!
man : but,,but he shot me and the bullet broke the window.
PAD : you should have handed over the wallet, then he wouldn’t have to shoot you and the window would not be broken.
man : I am not giving up my wallet.
Robber prepares to take another shot. Pad stops the robber, grabs the man’s wallet and hands it over.
Robber : see? you should have given me the wallet in the first place – just look at the damage you have caused.
PAD : yes, I think we will have to charge you for the damage.
man : what about me? I am robbed and shot.
PAD : What? I didn’t see that.
PAD, robber calmly walks away and as a parting shot – “next time hand over your wallet quick, so no damage will be done”
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