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Wassana Nanuam is a prolific writer on Thai military topics. A 2009 book review by Craig Reynolds provides good insights about her work.
In today’s Bangkok Post Wassana has an analysis of the prospects for a coup in Thailand that will be of interest to many New Mandala readers.
I think the key point comes in the final stanza:
Although Gen Prayuth and Gen Tanasak have guaranteed there will be no coup, nobody is so sure that the Sept 19, 2006 putsch will be the last one. One certainty is that the next coup, if it happens, will not be pulled off so easily and the outcome will not be quite so rosy.
And I can see how the outcome may “not be quite so rosy”. I guess the question is: for whom?
The more coups the Royal Thai Army engage in the better.
Then the world can see them for what they are.
Oppressors of Thais democracy.
Power elites.
Status quo lovers.
Embracers of violence.
Bullet dialectic.
Tick tock tick tock……
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Charles Edward Frith
‘Then the world can see them for what they are.’
But will the world care? will they do anything?
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The last coup had a lot of people unhappy with the government and there were corruption calls directed ay the leader. Although many would not have been happy about it, it was over quick enough.
This time the government is not widely unpopular and don’t appear any more corrupt that the usual completely corrupt government. Can’t see that Yingluk has done anything to offend anyone including the monarchists. Can’t see a coup this time being well received and accepted, this time it could get quite bloody, what possible justification could the army fabricate?
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My favourite line was this:
“Traditionally, the supreme commander is always “invited” to be the coup leader”.
Thai coups now have a ‘tradition’. Like Bagehot’s ‘dignified’ constitution, perhaps?
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Nobody’s sure because uncertainty sells advertising space at a higher price. If there’s another coup in Thailand, the Thai economy will crumple. Nobody needs that now.
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That is a good quote, isn’t it. Unfortunately Ms Wassana did not let us know this time who, politician or bureaucrat, is seeing whom, soothsayer.
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Of course it’s not so simplistic as attaining greater readership with speculation, but to me this seems like a great non-story over a beer before going on to discuss more juicy non-speculative information. Taking the quotes for stability from the establishment and speculating that the opposite may happen is of course logical in a non-transparent political environment. A coup could have happened at any time post Yingluck’s election. Wassana’s speculation doesn’t suggest any recent events are particularly more acute than previous situations. Who was talking about the September 2006 coup well before it happened?
I find Craig Reynold’s review’s conclusion much more telling about the amorphous power relationships which may or may not engender a coup, and the purpose behind Wissana’s recent article.
“Such is the trickery and camouflage reported in Wassana’s book. She has pieced together a jigsaw puzzle of rivalries and relationships, networks and alliances, and power blocs in the army and the political parties to make a compelling case for how the sciences of prognostication, divination and the dark arts of spells and curses motivate the behaviour of civilian and military leaders. For help in hedging risk, dealing with uncertainty, and nudging history in a favourable direction, civilians and soldiers alike consult custodians of this knowledge. As the Thai saying goes, ‘if you don’t believe in it, don’t disparage it’. Just to play it safe.”
I disparage this type of article because there’s nothing in it to believe , just a lot of ‘he said’, ‘she said’, and assumption. There’s no information about actual spells being cast. It’s for those who yearn to be on the inside… And doesn’t everyone? (hence the generating readership conspiracy/skepticism)…
I believe that there will be regime change in Thailand tomorrow! DON’T DISPARAGE THIS! I consulted my fried rice.
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Mr Damage -3
In these days of dynastic change (lets see it for what it is!) The Pheua Thai is following multiple paths and dialogues to ensure the future security of the Shinawatra dynasty a la Lee Kwan Yiew. Yingluck is there to smooth ruffled feathers, sing tunes form Prem’s songbook and keep everyone relaxed na ka? Chalerm wields the big stick and appeals to the macho vote much as Suthep did before him. The military high command will ultimately follow the money as they have since 1932 with a pledge to uphold the monarchy, the latest constitution, and the Shinawatra family as guardians of both of the above. (religion, nation and people will be left out as this is the 21stC and we are all ciwilai now)
I don’t write this as a PAD apologist. I just don’t think there is any realistic alternative scenario. Thaksin et famille will run the country as an oligarchal monopoly. Royalty will be recompensed and run out to open hospitals and garden fetes as they do in Cambodia and the red-shirts will be left to figure out where it all went wrong. This is SE Asia after all and options are culturally limited. Progress? Well you tell me. Change? Let’s be modern and call it a “franchise reboot”.
I’m sure all the above will be perfectly acceptable to the US state department and Chinas New Republican ideals. They have probably already been briefed (See Madam Clintons comments today.) This will also give the Thai military two bidders to play off for control of the SE Asian rice-bowl.
Thai society as a whole will politely and respectfully refrain from comment whilst this delicate transition of power transpires as only they know how. Those members of the aristocracy uncomfortable with any perceived loss of local status long ago shifted the bulk of their assets to safe havens and will retire to foreign shores where their ancient titles, lineage and blue diamonds will be admired at the country club.
“you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
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On the same Post story, PPT commented, with another quote
“Under present circumstance, the “outside factor” is not ripe enough to compel the armed forces to stage a coup. The ammart (elite) will use soldiers as a last resort to fight Thaksin Shinawatra and his supporters. Now the elite is waiting to see what happens in the judicial process and among independent organisations. If the government interferes with them, that could provide the grounds for staging a coup.” (http://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2012/06/14/the-judicial-coup-continues-ii/)
That seems rather telling.
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The Democrats, PAD and multi-cloured facists and their semi-hidden handlers want a coup. They have now maneuvered into a position more extreme than the military. It seems more likley they will try one of those judicial coups. The better talents of the 111 are returning, the democrats are utterly paranoid that Thaksin will return and utterly anhialate them as an electoral force, and the PTP are still by far the biggest political game in town.
It also seems clear that the military are not stupid in their assessments of the internal and extrenal resistance to any military coup attempt. There is a chance it will actually fail due to people resistance andnot the usual elite refusal to back that has stopped past ones. Of course if a military coup is defeated by the people that is the end of elite managed demcoracy. Even if they were to pull a succesful take over of, there is now a good chance that the country would remain in turmoil for a long time and see its economy ruined.
With those circumstances obvious it is highly unlikley that unless special or extreme circumstances arise or they see real threat to the monarchy or the PTP or reds really do lose popularity (not some bollocks in the Post about them being less popular, but really do lose it upcountry), it is highly unlikley that the military are going to risk everything to please a serially failed poltical party that has forced all dissent out led by an arrogant prick, a lunatic facist doctor and his cultists, a bunch of fading yellow shirted ultra-nationalists or a group of aging amart.
More interesting though is how far the courts will go in interpeting the seperation of powers. It is possible that a totally neutered parliament could be created by interpretation of law. Then it wouldnt matter who people voted for as parliament couldnt actually change anything or do anything that judges didnt want them to do. It also seems there is no check on how these interpretations are made and little to no media coverage of it.
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There must have been around two dozen Thai military coups already, most successful. The latest in year 2006 to oust Thaksin Shinawatra was rated ‘popular’, very popular with democracy-loving Bangkokians showering garlans to the tanks.
No wonder Red shirt leader Jatuporn has been making lots of noise recently . . . coinciding with the ‘reconciliation-er-amnesty-to-Thaksin’ maneuvering of that Thaksin-puppet Peau Thai Party. Jatuporn even threatened to get 1.0 million Red shirts marching to Bangkok (with or without petrol-filled bottles, he prudently did not mention) if there is a sniff of a coup brewing.
But if Peau Thai Party stubbornly proceed with the ‘Thaksin-amnesty’ gambit, it’s almost a certainty those men in khakis will launch another military coup ‘to restore order and peace’ to Thailand. Thai generals so-and-so could easily say the Red mobs, the Yellow mobs, the Black Shirt mobs and just mobs here and there had been incited to anarchy by the issue of that deplorable’Thaksin amnesty.
Right gentlemen?
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Why would they coup? Yingluck has made it unnecessary to coup … has already couped for them.
I think this article is to take the focus off the coup that has already taken place, the judicial coup, aided and abetted by the PM herself.
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Partly agree with JFL here that by not standing up to the constitutional court some form of judicial coup has already taken place. An appointed court subtracted from the most narrow point of Thai society now seems to have the whip hand over the democratically elected government.
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Prawase calls on Thaksin to help forge genuine reconciliation
… the above from The Nation at this moment. Has anyone seen a complete report of Prawase’s statement?
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A ‘judicial coup’ is it, John Francis Lee and Spooner? But how does Peau Thai Party/Red Shirts respond to the ‘judicial coup’ threat?
INTIMIDATE AND BULLY THE CONSTITUTIONAL JUDGES, is how. Yotwarit Chooklom (better known as “Jen Dokjik”), assistant secretary to the Interior minister publicly announced the constitutional judges’ telephone numbers and addresses on stage during a red-shirt rally.
But I guess John Francis Lee would heartily approve of such bullying tactics by the Reds/Peau Thai Party. Because I recall an incident when I posted a remark at Prachatai questioning JFL’s ‘subversive’ commentary about piles and piles of bodies at the Wat Pathum Wanaram temple (May2010 military crackdown of the Red/Black Shirts), and John Francis Lee responded with a threat ‘to track my IP address’ and whereabouts.
Are you still tracking me and the Thai Constitutional judges John Francis Lee?
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Of course nobody can rule out the possibility of a new military coup. (Is it gonna be the 20th in 80 years?).
The question is: Thai democratic forces are ready to oppose a new military coup or not?
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PPT points to Democrat heavy Suthep in the Bangkok Post …
He thinks the people can be dealt out and things can be ‘worked out’. Looks like he’s right. The judicial coup … “Lack of control over the judiciary is their weak point…” is a done deal. The Puea Thai Party has sold the Thai people out for the sake of Thaksin and their chance to feed at the trough. Or maybe for their chance to feed at the trough and the sake of Thaksin. Depends on if you’re PT PM or PT rank and file.
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Sooner or later there is another coup. This time will be a bloody coup and pretty sure the democracy will win. Hope before things settle, Thailand will not become like Syria.
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Intrigued (not) by my good friend Vichai N’s remark ” John Francis Lee responded with a threat ‘to track my IP address’ “, I looked it up … but couldn’t find it. On the off chance that anyone’s interested…
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You must take Wasana Nanuam with a grain of salt. As her last name implies, it is the farm that will suffer the most.
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two countries, two courts, two coups
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I wouldn’t really care if there is a coup now. If Yingluck is not interested to do something about the crippled democracy that is Thailand right now, then she has not done what the Red Shirts expected her to do anyway. If she is going to go along with the elites and ignore the Reds, then I don’t really care whether she is or is not in office, because she is just using the dead bodies to win the election, only to ignore their wishes after she is in p0wer. That is deplorable. And if she gets couped, no Red Shirt would care about that.
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@CT #22
My sentiments exactly. I have believed for some time now that the usually somnolescent Thai people will awaken from their dream and notice that things aren’t right.
Civil war is pretty much inevitable; to paraphrase what has been famously noted “Making a democracy out of an autocracy peacefully requires a dog to willingly give up a bone.”
Not going to happen. It will require upheaval and considerable bloodshed, same as it always has done. Shame on Thaksin for not arranging to put Abhisit and Suthep in prison, and shoot the coup makers and murderers of Thai people.
Also referring to the increasingly bizarre Vichai N #11:
“The latest in year 2006 to oust Thaksin Shinawatra was rated ‘popular’, very popular with democracy-loving Bangkokians showering garlans to the tanks.”
Kidding – right? Having a laugh are you? The democracy-loving coup-supporters? oxymorons with your tea anyone? Royalist stooges to a man (and woman), coming out right on cue.
I don’t know if Vichai N is high or drunk, or just a little bit dim.
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Postman // Jun 16, 2012 at 7:48 pm
@Postman#23
“Shame on Thaksin for not arranging to put Abhisit and Suthep in prison, and shoot the coup makers and murderers of Thai people.”??
…Please expose the logic behind your apparently emotional outburst.
By my crude body count the Thai Rak Thai score was 3000 to the Democrats 120. Both sets of mayhem dutifully carried out by the esteemed apparatus of the state, protector of the thai people. – and the parties not over yet…
– and by what legal process/political appointment exactly was/is the “self-exiled” man from Dubai expected to accomodate your wishes?
I’m sure he’ll sort it all out for you when he’s made Dr Police Major General Lord Protector or whatever. You’ll just have to be patient.
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee – I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee – that says, fool me once, shame on – shame on you. Fool me – you can’t get fooled again.” – George Bush
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@Milton Brick #24
I should think that’s the first time George Bush has been quoted on anything where the quoter wasn’t taking the mickey out of him, but still, are you quite serious? George Bush? Only in America could they elect Ronnie Raygun – twice, and follow that up with George W Bush – twice. I suppose that’s what they call the ole one-two huh?
As for the rest, well, I didn’t make any comment about Thai Rak Thai, but it is generally accepted that the death toll in the war on drugs has been considerably exaggerated. So I guess you are right – it was a crude body count.
Thaksin is certainly the devil, no doubt about it. Only fools would vote for him whereas only smart folk would vote for Abhisit and Suthep – right?
By the way, the correct quote is ‘Fooled me once, shame on you, fooled me twice – shame on me”, but since you’re probably American its easily understood. We can’t afford to upset the self-appointed ‘leaders of the free world’, so I won’t add that you manage to get most things wrong, which is why I can forgive you so readily – its sort of expected that you’ll get it wrong,
Which is why you get your asses kicked out of so many countries I expect.
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Something is rotten in Bangkok
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Wassana’s work is far too prosy to be described as being constructed of stanzas. Nevertheless discussion of the renewed threat of a coup, however unlikely, is now vital to the red shirt leadership to replace the previous formula of the more visceral rallying call for justice for those slaughtered and maimed by the military in 2010. It is a pity that had to be abruptly dropped due to political expediency.
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@Milton Brick knows exactly what is going on. What a terrific analysis.
A couple of footnotes:
Increased guidance by The Brookings Institute, The Council on Foreign Relations and the State Department who will bed down and formalise what wealth extraction and warmongering agreements they can.
The absence of conspicuous snouts in prosperous Thailand from abroad is something Thaksin was looking to beef up and take a cut. Friends abroad are always useful and the UN speech was classic som nom naa timing.
I think that’s why the Privy council took action.
Nobody likes new thieves more than the old thieves.
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Thailand has 66 million people and only 9 million of them file tax returns. The rest are these uneducated ignorant so called red shirts who will sell their votes for cash or promises of a cheap knock off tablet computers. Thailand is not a functional democracy and a coup would be better than allowing unsustainable giveaway programs that have already destroyed the rice industry to continue. Thailand is better off run by the military than by the Shinawatra family.
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“Thailand is better off run by the military than by the Shinawatra family.”
Well, there we have it, the thinking mans democratic view.
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