As Thailand approaches its monumental referendum, the potential for political conflict is high. What will happen after Sunday?
Thailand’s constitution-drafting process has come to the crucial point — the referendum on the draft charter on 7 August. All arms of Thailand’s authoritarian regime are working in unison to ensure that the referendum will go smoothly and coerce an acceptance of the draft from Thais.
The junta-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA) introduced the Referendum Act in April, which prohibits the distribution of false information or information in a violent, aggressive, vulgar, or coercive manner that might influence the public’s vote. The Constitutional Court confirmed that the prohibition, and the ambiguous language of the Act are both constitutional. The Court admitted that black letters of the Act (or the technical legal elements) lacked precision but are permissible, since flexibility is necessary for the successful application of the Act.
The Court’s decision allowed the Election Commission (EC) to deem any criticism of the draft as a distortion of the facts, resulting in widespread arrests of local politicians, university students, and political activists who voiced disagreement with the draft. The police went so far as prosecuting children who tore up a list of eligible voters while playing at various referendum booths.
At the same time as the crack downs, the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC) and the EC joined hands to unilaterally propagate the benefits of the draft charter. Complaints arose that this propaganda actually contained false information. Even universities entertained the junta’s wishes, shutting down venues for public discussion and warning their professors to keep their mouths shut. These are concerted efforts to silence any opposition and convince Thais to vote for the draft.
The possible outcome of this upcoming referendum is unpredictable. Assessment of public opinion is challenging since the intimidating atmosphere means most people impose self-censorship and several polls available are known to be heavily biased. Surveys indicate a landslide victory for the junta, but the general mood indicates otherwise.
Despite intimidation, groups recently came out to confirm that they would reject the draft. Reasons varied.
Many pro-democracy Thais regard a rejection of the referendum as a symbolic rejection of the military government. Others complained about the lack of participation in the drafting process and dissatisfaction of the content. The CDC prepared the draft charter in secrecy. A number of entitlements were lost or significantly reduced without public consultation — for example, the right to free education, the right to universal healthcare coverage, and the right to good environment.
Another group is worried that the draft entrenches the control of the elite minority more deeply into Thai politics, which will not solve Thailand’s political problems. This new constitution empowers the judiciary and other independent agencies while deliberately weakening electoral politics.
Finally, there are people who will turn down the draft because they consider it not extreme enough to eradicate corrupt politicians. They wish, quite sincerely, that Prayuth Chan-ocha, and his National Council of Peace and Order (NCPO), could stay in power longer.
Meanwhile, other anti-junta activists are calling people to boycott the vote, which might actually help the junta achieve its desirable outcome. Until all ballots are counted, no one could be certain of the result.
The biggest question remains; what will happen to Thailand after the referendum?
A defeat for the referendum is definitely embarrassing. But embarrassment is not going to topple this oppressive regime. In mid-2015, the junta had to abort the first constitution draft because its politburo-style Crisis Panel was hugely unpopular. The government survived the consequent humiliation and went on to commission this very draft.
Clearly, Prayuth will not resign. Another draft will be written. But there might, or might not, be another referendum.
The public has no clue as to what the new draft would look like. Uncertainty is the NCPO’s top strategy. Add the public will becomes even more anxious if Prayuth reveals no further plans should the draft fails. Only by accepting the draft will Thailand move concretely towards the NCPO’s exit from rule.
Sadly, any exit this draft provides would be a fake and temporary one.
A yes vote will award the NCPO an awkward but sweet victory. Although no one would agree that this referendum is free and fair, the NCPO could still fool itself that it is. With victory the NCPO can then anticipate a smooth transition from this fragile and crude military government to an electoral democracy under the supervision of traditional elites according to the constitution.
Transition, nonetheless, is long. It will take at least 15 months after the referendum for the NLA to finish passing all necessary laws on elections and political parties and for the first general election could be held. Under the proposed new constitution, the NCPO will also be able to handpick the 250-member Senate — with six seats reserved for military chiefs. And if the public approves this additional question in the referendum, this Senate will be able to vote for the next prime minister.
Meanwhile, the incoming cabinet will face a long checklist for its ethical standards and competency. Civilian politicians are subject to harsh judicial review. The newly-elected government’s policies are also strictly bound by directives set out in the constitutional chapters on the Duty of the State, Policy Guideline, and National Reform. In fact, the new government can initiate very little and its initiative may easily lead to prosecution or impeachment. The vast network of powerful elites will be installed constitutionally into Thailand’s already highly unstable political landscape.
More worryingly, the victory will sharpen the country’s long-term political conflict. If the referendum passes, it will confirm that Thailand’s elite minority can still control the majority through undemocratic means — including lies and violence. With a victory, they will also be less willing to negotiate a new power deal with the grassroots, an act urgently needed in times of dying old elites and rising liberals.
The majority, who find themselves powerless to make any political changes, might take to the street. After the passage of the constitution, violence is foreseeable.
Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang is a Thai constitutional law scholar.
And as the day nears, Thailand’s suppression & oppression activities are multiplied a tenfold.
One can only urge all Nations around the globe, to cancel all diplomatic ties with Thailand’s dictatorship absolute powers!
Who dares first, and what Nations are chickens?
We will see after that day.
One, has been already decided, however; Australia’s Government is the world’s biggest chicken! Well, they too, are still sniffing their Queen’s fart.
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Nidhi Eoseewong: The Politics of the Referendum
translated into English
prachatai english 04.08.2016
http://prachatai.org/english/node/6432
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The illegal military junta wants legitimacy for the crimes they committed in 2014.
Thay have tried everything short of setting up concentration camps to hold all dissidents. A no vote might force the mad generals down that path.
The new constitution might as well be written on rice paper for easier digestion.
This is not a vote for Thais currently living in the country but also for their children and grand children.
The military can only be defeated by people losing their fear and fighting back.
IMPRISON THE MILITARY GENERALS AND THEIR COHORTS. Try them for treason and punish all those that conspired over years to overthrow a legitimate govt.
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but roy – do you really want to lock the old man in the wheelchair yet? he is nevertheless already senile
– and the Blue Whale even can no longer …
…and Prem – at his age …
so – the rest of the Privy Council is already decrepit
but, but… perhaps Suthep and his cohorts with whistles
… and of course Abisith who had disappeared after the night of 10 April 2010 for a week and hid in Hua Hin at the Royal Palace …..
and….and….ohhhhhhhhhh….that would be a reconciliation ….
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Prem and his cronies should spend their last days in prison.
The other two unmentional people are on their last legs and any court would not prosecute.
The conspirators included many big businessmen. The list that the PT govt held and FAILED to act on, plus the accounts of the war chest would put most conspirators away for a very long time.
Yes, that is the type of reconciliation I would like to see.
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You mean the Thai godfather?
Yes, absolutely!
He is the root of all misery grown and dumped onto the Thai folk!
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We have these institutions like:
https://www.ictj.org/,
https://www.hrw.org/topic/international-justice/international-criminal-court, …
Guess what they do?
All big fuzz only, little to no action.
And besides, not much to gain from Thailand.
So there you have it.
People need to use their people power and take action – for themselves!
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Maybe the greatest hope for Thailand lies within the military – in the form of rank-and-file resistance to elitist interests. But that would require courageous leaders. Where might they be found?
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There is no chance of a rank and file rebellion in the Thai military. Their training in startling conditions with murder as a threat instils fear into any dissenter.
It would take great courage to challenge orders issued.
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Meanwhile already bloodied, and about to be disenfranchised, Isaarn daily sees the Deep South separatists’ success against Prayut’s military. The author correctly warns of widening violence. As the right to free education, health care, etc., hits crunch point in a depressed, struggling, rapacious economy : how long before Isaarn reverts to traditional armed struggle against Bangkok’s rulers ?
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Eeny, meeny, miny, moe
Tickle a General with a Yes?
or rattle him instead with a No
Eeny, meeny, miny, moe
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Failing economy…collapse of FDI. …declining tourist numbers…think it can’t happen?…think again. I remember Romania in 1989..Caucescu..captured..trial..shot in a couple of hours.
I’m glad I got out when I did.
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Yes, the only way to break this cycle of Coup’s is all involved must be held responsible.
– then you can send the military back to the barracks – where they belong
– design a Folk Constitution
– the state decentralize
– and put all under uniform legislation
The big question is how to achieve this without bloodshed.
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As I stated elsewhere , there will be further blood on Bangkok streets before Thailand tastes the fruits of Democracy
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Well official results are in from this highly fixed and controlled referendum. What a surprise !! The yes vote won. But MOST INTERESTING OF ALL IS THE REGIONAL BREAKDOWN : low turn-out, and high NO vote from Isaarn, and even more so from the overtly separatist Deep South stronghold. This referendum was effectively a vote by those regions on whether they remain part of Prayut’s “Thailand”. While the Shinawatra’s are this votes biggest losers, the vote shows both regions have voted to secede : Shinawatra influence is being out-flanked by far more radical elements – both Prayut on the Right, and regional secessionist on the Left. This referendum has given the latter a legitimacy boost.
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Obviously the Sultanate of Patani should be part of Malaysia. However, the notion that Isaan, Lanna or any other Tai speaking Buddhist region will secede from Thailand is simply not credible. As for a revolutionary ‘Thai Spring’ it would require a very unlikely combination of events, military oppression alone is not enough.
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While not necessarily sharing Chris Beale’s conclusion on legitimacy given to separatism he does underline two important factors we need to analyze in great detail: levels of participation and regional variations, especially between Greater Bangkok and the rest of the country. For the former, without reliable opinion polling however it would be difficult to interpret what abstaining means. In a censorious environment such polling may not have been possible. As a poor second best we will be left to rely on anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand.
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Ah, yes, the much-vaunted, much-maligned, “anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand”.
There’s something to really look forward to.
No doubt journalists and quasi-journalists with their “sources” and their bar-stool coffee-shop access to “internal discourse” will soon be speaking in the voice of authority, of those who “know”, and telling us how the Thai people really feel, what the whispers are in the drawing rooms of the royalists, and when we can expect the next installment of the civil war that never comes.
There will be those who assure us that the Thai people value freedom above all but have been brainwashed and terrorized into voting yes by the all-powerful Oz, er, Prayuth.
Given proper reprogramming and a constabulary trained at the (now renamed) School of the Americas, the freedom-loving Thais would become just like Americans and Brits and Spaniards and all the other democratically-empowered rational actors who are rockin’ in the Free World©.
Anecdotals, as always, must be supported by:
1) emphasis on the number of years of residence in Thailand (can’t be an old Asia hand without sufficient time put in);
2)assurances of authenticity of residence via details of WHERE you have lived in Thailand and WHO you have chatted with: eg, in a village with 5 chickens, twelve dogs and a whole lot of the salt of the earth versus a Sukumvit condo and local bigfaces, national leaders and popular subversives versus taxi drivers and the lady who sells somtam at the mouth of the soi;
3) a 500 word brief arguing against your being labeled an “armchair” anything at all.
My anecdotal without supporting documentation: the people closest to me are embittered by the Yes result but accept that it was a genuine expression of how many many Thais think and feel.
I share the sentiment.
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How does anyone, other than the military, actually know that the referendum was not fiddled? NO monitors allowed and No one overseeing the actual count.
People are just to trusting of the Thai military who have a great tradition of murders, corruption (allegedly) and cospiring to overthrow govts.
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Adding to this, just seen on the BBC that the participation rate was 55%. (A gratuitous comment: about that for a US presidential election from the country that gives lessons to the world on democracy…)
Still, by the standards of authoritarian regimes (e.g. Communist Romania, or a junta-controlled Myanmar, 55% is (with the caveat that this is not a manipulated statistic) … is nevertheless, disappointing, from the NCOP’s perspective.
Gather they were looking at an 80% participation rate… However, could just be a clever tactic to modestly vaunt a significant public relations victory. Still, will tomorrows be as reassuring for the chaps in green?
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Thanks to those responding to my comments. 1) John Smith – “the notion that Isaan, Lanna or any other Tai speaking Buddhist region will secede from Thailand is simply not credible”
Why ? These have been independent kingdoms in the past. Certainly reading Martin Stuart-Fox’s books on Laos, one gains the impression Lao national identity – as distinct from “Thai” – extends strongly into Isaarn. This certainly fits with my own personal experience.
2) hilarious Michael Wilson – “the civil war that never comes”. They usually have a long gestation. As for bar stool experts, etc., I’ve been visiting and living in Thailand since 1963. But you are right about the difficulties of getting hard, irrefutable evidence, as is the much-to-be-admired 3) David Camroux, of whom I’m a fan. My reply : in the face of such immense difficulties, we have to apply that somewhat scarce commodity (as Handley notes) in Thai politics : i.e. strict logic to the sparse, censored evidence we DO HAVE. Is it LOGICAL that Isaarn has voted to effectively disenfranchise itself ? Isaarn has CLEARLY voted with its’ feet (high abenteeism), or outright rejection. Short of the highly unlikely event of Isaarn being directly asked whether it wants to stay within “Thailand” (or, rather Prayut’s version of it), this referendum can be both turned on its’ head, and over-turned : Lao Isaarn has voted for divorce.
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