For the past few years the work of Bangkok-based photo-journalist Nick Nostitz has been regularly featured here on New Mandala. Long-time readers will be aware that Nick has often provided the only documentary reports of major events in recent Thai political history. On a shoe-string budget, Nick provides timely and incisive coverage from the front-lines.
In the past week he has been the subject of two substantial interviews: one at The Nation and the other at Absolutely Bangkok. There is also a long discussion at Bangkok Pundit where Nick very generously engages with some of his critics.
But I think his critics (at Bangkok Pundit and elsewhere) miss the point. In the Red vs Yellow street battles of recent memory Nick Nostitz has provided peerless blow-by-blow coverage. It is fair to say that his reports are read and discussed by pretty much everyone who follows these events closely. It is, in fact, unusual for me to have a serious conversation about Thai politics without somebody referring to Nick’s work.
This matters greatly because Thailand looks to be gearing up for another period of tension. There is a lingering sense that turmoil lurks, once again, just over the horizon. In any future confrontation or political upheaval the world (and that is not, in this case, an exaggeration) will look to Nick, and others like him, to try and understand what is happening in Thailand at the street-level. This is tough work. And it is not without its risks or hardships.
Nick feels that the risks and hardships are worth it. He gets out the stories that few others have managed to report. Long may he continue.
as previously – Nick give very good opinion, and I would say pretty balanced, or even more important – REALISTIC !
0
0
Nick – how inevitable do you think civil war is now ?
As far as I can see it is certain – Bangkok elite will not accept
Isaarn’s electoral vedict.
Isaarn will not accept Bangkok’s rejection.
I think certainly there is going to be a civil war – with Lao Isaarn attempting to break-away from “Thailand”, into an independent Lao state aligned with China.
0
0
“Chris Beale”:
It is very difficult to say. The issues here are not just the Red/Yellow conflict, but conflicts within the military as well, which is not just split between Red and Yellow, but also along many different loyalty networks which , as far as i am aware of, are constantly fluctuating at the moment.
I do disagree though with the Issarn – Bangkok split. The problem is far more complex.
0
0
Thanks Nick.
It is indeed an extremely complex situation.
Wassana’s recent piece was to me the most alarming of all
“civil war” warnings.
At first when these started being tossed about – first by the PAD’s Sondhi declaring “civil war has started” – I discounted such talk as simply hot-headed political rhetoric’, but have grown increasingly alarmed as the situation continues deteriorating.
And you mentioned the possibility at the start of your excellent book – which I’ve passed on to a friend.
I pity those Thais sincerely trying to find a peaceful solution, and hope they succeed.
I’m interested that you too think there won’t be an Isaarn-Bangkok break – you’re probably correct :
just about everyone commenting here, except me, seems to discount this.
I’m simply worried by some alarming parrallels with eg. Yugoslavia’s break-up, and earlier civil wars in the West and Asia, which were both cause and effect of the triumph of capitalism and industrialisation. And that two decades ago, nobody would have thought Thailand’s far south would become anthing like as bad as now.
Also former PM Anand’s front-page warning, a few years ago, against Thailand breaking up along regional lines.
Mind you, after Suharto fell there were similiar dismal fears about Indonesia, which happily proved wrong.
0
0
Two recent events show the seriousness of the situation. “Sae Daeng” has been fired from the military but his reaction was fierce, saying now that he is a “civilian”, he is free to launch a guerrilla war. We all know he is in control of some Tahan Pran (Army-trained Rangers, notorious for their actions in the South). He is scheduled to speak tonight (14 Jan) on MVTV5. His more dreaded buddy Panlop is still quiet in words but does not mean he is idle.
Second event is Mark’s unannounced meeting with Prem. Clearly this handsome but half-baked Oxford-educated boy is now at a loss on how to handle the situation so he decided to see the most senior pooyai-backer. So keep on tuning in guys, you will see some nice fireworks before 26 Feb. Nick, keep up the good works, take more vitamins before going into action !
0
0
“Chris Beale”:
It is quite difficult trying to predict what may happen, especially in the longer term. There are of course worst case scenarios, and they cannot be completely discounted, even if at the present moment unlikely. Conflicts can go out of hand, but must not necessarily. We’ll have to continue watching the developments.
Both the Red and the Yellow side have already since last year increasingly talked about “civil war”. However there are of course different shades possible, all from disturbances to all out anarchy.
During the late 90’s i was also convinced that Indonesia is going to break up, but they have managed amazingly well to get over the changes. Lets wait and see how Thailand does.
“alibaba”:
So far the Dahan Praan of Region 4 – the South – have nothing to do with the situation. The Dahan Praan now involved in the Red Shirts are mostly retired Dahan Praan from the former Pak Thong Chai barracks, veterans from the many skirmishes at the Cambodian and Laotian borders. They associated with a “look nong” of Sae Daeng. We don’t exactly know yet the numbers, conservative estimates are about 100 to 200, but could possibly be more.
0
0
Nation reports it was Prem who called the meeting, citing an unnamed source.
Btw, Nick, several times I’ve seen references to reds cutting some trees to set up their stage (or the “double standards” village), also on Sunday Nation had a photo of them cutting through some fences in preparation for the rally. What was that all about? Doesn’t seem to fit with their concern for the natural park.
0
0
Nick – I also visited Indonesia a lot during that time.
One reason for Indonesia’s surprisingly good outcome was the charming moderate Islamic cleric Gus Dur, leader of the 40 million-strong Nahdatul Ulama, which acted as a bulwark against extremism of any kind.
Sadly Gus Dur recently departed, and even more sadly perhaps is that contemporary Thailand seems to have no equivalent.
0
0