Facebook 
Twitter 
Soundcloud 
Youtube 
Rss 
Back in February 2011 I put together a New Mandala post titled “Long shadow of war in Kachin State”.
According to the Kachin News Group things in northern Burma are now tilting even further in the direction of renewed conflict. As ever, it is very hard to tell exactly what the reported pronouncements from Naypyidaw may mean.
While we wait for further details it is almost the time to ask: is this the end of the Kachin ceasefire period, once-and-for-all?
As someone who doesn’t follow the ethnic conflict as closely as I probably should, I was wondering if anyone could give some idea of the strength of the KIA relative to the UWSA. I’m assuming the KIA is more vulnerable, but if so what are the reasons for that? Is it just manpower or are there other factors?
And what would the rationale be behind designating the KIA the main domestic enemy (assuming – big assumption I know – that the Kachin News Group report is correct)?
0
0
I don’t know the current strengths but the Wa definitely have a larger army. The KIO is also more vulnerable since they have lost the economic clout they once had since they no longer control the Hpakant jade mines.
The Kachins, while perhaps militarily weaker than the Wa, are probably a more serious political threat. Under Maran Brang Seng, the head of the KIO in the 1980s and early 1990s the KIO gave up demands for an independent state and instead fought for a federal union. In addition, they are not tainted with drug trafficking to the same extent the UWSA is. Historically, they’ve also had pretty good relations with the Chinese. I suspect the regime fears their political legitimacy more than the Wa, but I don’t know that for sure.
0
0
For a list of troop numbers of various armed opposition groups (Wa, KIO etc.) you may find this chart helpful. But it was compiled in 2010, so it might be a bit out of date.
0
0
KIO has given weapons to just about every man, woman and child. Current KIO troop strength is 10,000. An additional 20,000 in the armed militia.
The Chinese do not understand how much the Kachins hate construction of the Myitsone Dam.
0
0
Hi RY,
Do you have any more information about the politics of the Myitsone dam?
0
0
The Kachins do not want war. Unlike UWSA, China’s proxy army in Burma, they cannot retreat into China. So they are preparing for a big and bloody fight.
The Myitsone Dam is their red-line.
0
0
Nich
Does everyone here @ New Mandala really think that the built up of a 400k + Tamadaw ,~3 x Ne Win era armed force as well as masive militarization with the help of now DPRK are a fluke, or worst megalomaniac trait of Than Shwe?
Yet given the trait so far exhibited, adhering to the principle of Aung San’s own belief in “War as an instrument of Politics”, as shown in the handling of the WA, as well as orchestrated nefarious cease fire agreements made, hoping for shoot out b/t ethic groups vs the Tamadaw by anyone here is @ best truly wanting @ worst heaping the possible consequences of that scenario on to the desperate citizenry .
Hoping, wishing, encouraging, or supporting any disharmony among the over 100 ethnicity within Myanmar is beyond ludicrous.
With the unfolding history in the Arabian Peninsula, transformation of regime required an Educated/informed citizenry that expect more from their government.
Does the last 3 or more decades of the west actions as well as most of the opinions of New Mandala comment even approach the above simple proof?
0
0
Actually, the massive militarization was due to Ne Win’s megalomania; Than Shwe is just carrying it on. Nobody forced the military junta to build the army to the size it has.
0
0
aiontay
“Nobody forced the military junta to build the army to the size it has.”
Let see:
Who label Myanmar as an “axis of evil”?
Among a dozen or more of absolute useless resolution in the UN, who push for especially the one called R2P?
Who parked their fleets of battle ships off the coat when ever there are ‘dispute’ b/t SPDC and the Bangladeshis neither of which, by the way, care for the poor Rohingias’ fate?
Allow Ne Win to be Ne Win without much complaint even endearingly received for example @ the court of ST James while similar or worst atrocities against the citizenry were committed, now chiming in under ‘common policy’ to ward Myanmar as ‘the out post of tyranny’?
Who has never question the intent of Daw Aung San suu Kyi call for sanction yet belittle any effort made by this present eSe on improving citizenry plight.
See anyone here volunteering @ New Mandala to anything else other than interested in fighting for the Karen against the Bamar?
Do they even care to realize that Bamar, Karen, Kachin,Kaya, Shan or any 100’s of ethnicity are brothers?
Just thinking about westerners pitting one of my my brother against another surly make me paranoid just like SPDC.
I think I will get another AK7 @ next gun show in Singapore just to be sure I am well protested.
0
0
Hi RY,
Why the Kachins doesn’t like Myitsone Dam?
0
0
How many battles has the Tatmawdaw fought against the US versus how many battles has it fought against its ethnic brothers? As I pointed out the KIO renounced separatist back in the late 1980s, and has been fighting for a federal state system in the context of a democracy since then, but that hasn’t kept the glorious Tatmawdaw from attacking their Kachin brothers.
And since we’re on the subject of Kachins, let’s look at the splits in the KIO since the 1990s and tell me how many were caused by the US or other western powers and how many were caused by the Burman dominated military. Who’s pitting brother against brother?
0
0
It’s not straightforward megalomania but greed, filthy lucre, with both the previous and current generations of military dictators.
Whilst Ne Win jealously guarded his own fiefdom called Burma isolating it from the global markets and cultural including political influence, successfully to a large extent before the age of the Internet and globalisation, Than Shwe and his brood conveniently embraced the open market system in a country they renamed Myanmar, open almost exclusively to themselves and their cronies, and joined in the global comprador bourgeoisie making themselves exponentially rich in the process.
Ne Win was able to rub shoulders with British royalty and enjoy Royal Ascot etc., and left to his own devices because
a) his malevolent despotic rule and the civil war were relatively unknown in a global village that was very different from now, and
b) his staunch anti-communism and wars against the Chinese backed CPB put him firmly in the Western camp like any right wing dictatorship notwithstanding his other wars against ethnic minorities.
Not something Than Shwe can enjoy since his relentlessly violent and repressive misrule cannot be concealed in this day and age, and the CPB no longer figures in the equation at least for a very long time under his watch.
The question is who the current armed thugocracy, Ne Win’s progeny and new improved litter, spends the money on while swimming in a sea of hard currency. What are their priorities? When the mainstream Burmese do not even get a look in, what chance do the minorities have?
Has there been any tentative step towards genuine national reconciliation? Apart from lip service to the union and a show opposition in a sham parliament, such a policy is conspicuous by its absence. Instead the regime appears to be hell bent on investing in yet more communal strife, misery and stunting of all the peoples’ potential to become a great nation just so a handful of them can remain on top and reap all the benefits from both natural and human resources far worse than the colonial rulers of old.
To them Panglong is a four letter word whereas to the minorities it remains a unique and historic milestone in all the history of Burma that badly needs to be revisited if the future of the union is to be free, fair, peaceful and prosperous.
0
0
Radio Free Asia – Interview with Aung San Suu Kyi – April 15, 2011
Question : I am a member of Kachin social development organization. The Myitsone Dam will have a lot of adverse effects on the people living in this area. The Kachin people reject this dam and are protesting in any way they can. Do you also have plans to protest against this dam?
Aung San Suu Kyi : Researchers in the NLD are preparing a paper not only on the adverse effects of building the Myitsone Dam, but also on how deforestation will adversely affect the plains along the Irrawaddy River.
___-
The Myitsone Dam has no economic benefits for the Burmese people. All the electricity will be exported to China while creating an environmental disaster in Burma. No environmental impact plan was prepared or approved. And any economic impact study will show that it has no income or employment multiplier benefits.
KIO leadership does not want to harm relations with China. But it cannot control its rank & file in this matter. In February 2011, Myanmar Army battalion commander, a Lt. Colonel, will killed near the Myitsone Dam by a KIO soldier for cease-fire violation. Last year, housing quarters of Chinese construction workers at the Myitsone Dam were extensively bombed.
If the newly “elected” government in Myanmar wants to shed its “puppet regime” image, it needs to address the Myitsone Dam problem in a civilized and legal manner.
No one wants war. But the Kachins, retains the right of self-defense, to defend their homes and their way of life.
0
0
Al Jazeera presented this short video a few days ago on the Myitsone Dam, which NM readers might find interesting.
0
0
Ko Moe Aung #12
Your personal vitriolic truism against Than Shwe is always safe @ New Mandala.
Aside from refraining from expounding on the resulting indignities of self flagellating and denigration of a whole race on account of hatred for one man in Myanmar, let me pose you these questions:
When did Than Shwe become the present embodiment of evil that you are desribing?
Was it b/f 1988 or after 1988?
What factors influence him to arrive @ present point of realizing he can get away with anything?
These are plain and yet important historical mile stones for Myanmar.
For he is after all the poster boy for the SPDC that has dragged Myanmar to this quagmire over 3 decades, therefore making his point of transformation important.
If you can state unequivocally, with proof that Than Shwe transformation from, back water illiterate paranoid, to present defiance monster nonetheless, cunning is absolutely his own evil inspired undertaking, as opposed to responding and reacting to the useless careless approach of the west, I shall concede your advocacy of Myanmar solution is to get rid of Than Shwe with extreme prejudice.
Otherwise we need to move on from fixation on Than Shwe, anyone person, party, organization etc to changing our focus on the citizenry.
I await your answer if this is allowed to be printed.
Do, please enlist Mr B. Roger help or quote him as well as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, Turnell & Vicary or any other similar minded sources you may find, if you wish.
0
0
plan B
The lady doth protest too much. Nothing personal, my dear, like it seems to you.
a) Military dictatorship as an institution is important not just Than Shwe, since when he’s gone either from a palace coup or from really stepping down or from plain old age, we’ll more than likely end up with a Than Shwe Mk II just as he is a Ne Win Mk II with even fewer scruples than his mentor and father figure.
b) Leaders have a crucial role to play. That’s why the focus is rightly on Than Shwe and ASSK whether you personally approve of it or not.
c) Whether a person is evil or not is debatable, what is certainly manifest is the insatiable greed at the expense of a nation that remains stunted and repressed for an inordinate length of time, and his determination to cling on to power so he can continue to wreak havoc like no natural disaster could do to millions of people whose extreme misfortune it is to be ruled by a ruthless despot in a relentless pursuit of power and wealth.
d) Only a chauvinist would think criticism and condemnation of the military dictatorship embodied by Than Shwe in its current incarnation in Burma to be unpatriotic and tantamount to indignities of self flagellating and denigration of a whole race on account of hatred for one man in Myanmar. Hatred does not come in to it. This hell on earth of military misrule must go.
0
0
SPDC relying on and indebted to China/DPRK thus can be defiant to the West—> free to be ruthless towards own citizenry —> Placating these pariah countries with projects—>Projects that further weaken citizenry resolve or expectation—>Free to be ruthless—> Relying even more on Uncle Wen & cousin Kim—>free to……
Myintsone Dam is but one of many similar past self serving projects and example of many more tragic to the citizenry yet to come, illustrated by the vicious cyles.
Breaking the above cycles require changing the self sustaining factors.
Ko Moe Aung
As usual you failed to address those factors, instead again engaged in recycled vitriol, name calling and false endearment that discourage others interested only in the citizenry welfare to come forward.
Calling monsters any more way does nothing to mitigate factors that create and promote the continuing existence of the monster itself.
Every leads that Nich. here @ New Mandala has given is a chance to focus on the betterment of the citizenry, woefully inadequate yet urgently needed basics: Education and health care.
Only a strong, healthy and educated citizenry can change the present tragic dynamics that favor the monster.
As one is presented with further degrading humanity within Myanmar here @ New Mandala solutions or path to solution need to be included in all advocacy.
The citizenry of Myanmar deserve beyond any personal gripes.
0
0
Ko plan B,
Sounds rather false somehow, don’t you think? You seem to be going round and round in circles like a headless chicken. Don’t recall labelling Than Shwe a monster or getting personal either. Not by me in any case.
The welfare of the citizenry is what everyone is concerned and are talking about if you haven’t noticed. Don’t think you have a monopoly on having ‘the national interest at heart’ like your generals do. Easy to spout platitudes and pay lip service to the greater good.
There seems no place in your scheme of things to address the issues important for the minorities or the protracted civil war. Nor do you appear to have any faith in the popular struggle and the strength within the country. You appear to see it only in terms of a contest between the West and the rest aiding and abetting the military regime which you deem a hapless victim of circumstance with no responsibility or agency in cause and effect of the state we are in.
Only a strong, healthy and educated citizenry can change the present tragic dynamics that favor the monster.They don’t care about health and education of the citizenry and would only spend a ludicrous and paltry sum on them. And you look forlornly at the INGOs and the West to deal with it despite the regime. And their priorities you think include health and education of the Burmese people in equal measure as markets and profits. Strange world you live in.
0
0
Ko Moe Aung
Your assumption truly is pathetic at best galling at the worst, of only using the persecuted ones represent all is again, proof of your eternal fixation against anything Than Shwe’s but also reflect clearly on your empty stance on behalf of the citizenry welfare.
Myanmar Lu Myo ( Citizenry) is the sum of ALL ethnic minorities.
Myanmar Lu Myo is suffering from it own government iniquities as well as the iniquities of the west useless careless policies.
Does residing in Australia give you the right that the West has unduly, taken for granted policies without the consent of Myanmar Citizenry?
1)Choosing to use only examples that are absolutely against Than Shwe and his cohorts to justify the absolutely useless careless policy that hurt EVERYONE and ESPECIALLY the most vulnerable one more, within Myanmar?
2)Constantly white washing the more devastating effect of their policy on all Myanmar Lu Myo especially the most vulnerable one?.
Ah proof! Unlike your nonsensical name calling:
Daw Anng San Suu Kyi as recently again against all conventional wisdom stating sanctions have absolute no baring on the suffering of the Lu Myo.
Plenty more out there especially so here, on the walls of New Mandala.
Lies, fraudulent statements, statistics and quotes that all detract from the true suffering of Myanmar citizenry.
Your claim of caring for the citizenry as an example.
Any Citizenry plight and welfare depend consistently on the Education and Health Care it can have.
Can you show me @ New Mandala, The Irrawaddy or any where you and your ilk advocacy come any close to that needed welfare of Myanmar Lu Myo?
Better yet show us here all at New Mandala how does the welfare of Myanmar Citizenry improved in anyway from any of your advocacy?
I await your answer.
Fair is fair
I and my ilks as well as all who care for Myanmar Citizenry must subject ourselves to the same simple relevant standard used.
Myanmar Citizenry deserve better than the present existing quagmire.
0
0
plan B,
Myanmar Citizenry deserve better than the present existing quagmire of military rule.
Please carry on overlooking the elephant in the room or trumpeting on its behalf. Military rule and citizens’ welfare simply do not gel in Burma.
0
0
Nich
It is so easy to condemn a well known lousy government that such kind of ridiculous info. is put out there.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12252158
“Just one in every 455 people in Burma were internet users in 2009, according to statistics from the United Nations International Telecommunication Union, AFP says.”
That translate to ~ a little more than 10,000 internet user within Myanmar!
Even if it is true does the article put forth reasons other than the restrictive government policy of Myanmar?
0
0
The Myitsone Dam is a national disgrace. It will soon ignite a nation-wide civil war, if this problem is not addressed in a civilized and legal manner.
The Bureau of Special Investigation (BSI) should investigate which individuals received bribes to approve this stinking project.
International Crisis Group, Asia Society, Chatham House and other think tanks should undertake a case study of lack of “good governance” at the Myitsone Dam project instead of writing useless academic reports.
Chinese investment was once welcomed in Africa. Now they are hated in many African countries. The catalyst that may restore freedom and democracy in Burma is anti-Chinese riots which also ended Suharto’s rule in Indonesia.
0
0
Rather doubt it if anti-Chinese riots would do the same in Burma as in Indonesia aside from the undesirability of any race riot. It was a nationalist ploy used by Ne Win, himself half Chinese, in 1967 as the shortage of rice came to a crisis point at the same time the Cultural Revolution spilled over the border to Rangoon.
Chinese pressure is certainly being felt more acutely in Upper Burma, but anti-Chinese sentiment has tended to play into the hands of the military regime, with frustration, resentment and anger diverted away from them onto a minority group. Burmese Chinese will become victims alongside Yunnanese immigrant Lao Pans.
“It’s the economy, stupid”, to quote the campaign slogan that put Bill Clinton into the White House. The IMF instigated petrol price hike triggered the August 2007 protests leading on to the Saffron Revolution.
The infighting over the spoils of office post election, and the deprivation of similar rewards together with exploitation and oppression of the army rank and file, could act as catalysts for the next round of upheaval, social unrest already simmering under the surface as people realise most of them will remain at the bottom of the food chain struggling hopelessly for a livelihood, let alone health and education.
0
0
@ Moe Aung #26
“The infighting over the spoils—let alone health and education.”Does the ‘Arab Spring’ ring any bell?(Last para #26)
SOS “the sky is falling any minute now” after 3 decades.
Contrary to the archaic communist ideology with Cuba and DPRK as proofs:
Relying on unspeakable suffering to a citizenry to effect change!
To avoid future silliness get with the program and check the recent wiki on the walls of New Mandala here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/161881
0
0
A right wing military regime compared with Cuba and N Korea?
Yesterday’s news in wikileaks? Auntie is back and you see red?
Your generals surely are asking for continued social/ethnic unrest and upheaval in a very deliberate and systematic manner. Worse than a dog that enters a roll of bamboo mat, there’s no turning back for them, and they think they know where they are going. This new litter knows no better than to go rushing into it no matter what, blinded by greed and power.
Typically you only have faith in what other states and agencies can do to your country, and none at all in its people.
0
0
Talk about priorities:
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21203
Social divisions are starkly manifest in the Tatmadaw. Proletarianisation of the rank and file has been going on for some time, with the officer class including their wives treating the men as their chattel and serfs. Now it’s the very basis of Burmese life – rice, where IMF style subsidy cuts have chosen to visit upon army families on the ground.
The mainstream Burmese opposition must not waste time and opportunity to cultivate alliances in the regime’s own ranks, as the clock is ticking for the NLD. The day of the so called “three sons” joining hands to topple the generals seems to have got one step closer.
0
0
@#25
It is absolutely irresponsible to be suggesting again ‘the sky is falling’
especially with the available info. on COMMAND/CONTROL system, honed by 2 dictatorships, posted here on the walls of New Mandala, that has worked for over 6 decades, without ANY historical fact to dispute otherwise.
Is there an iota of benefit to the citizenry plight immediately or otherwise in your quoted source?
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21203
Even if it happen as you have hoped, the assured examples of well documented past tragedies of soldiers fending off the citizenry back happening again ever cross you mind?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/161881
Please read 5 C again if not the whole document carefully.
The suggestions are all geared towards benefiting the citizenry immediately and long term.
0
0
plan B
Yes, the r word, like your top men really have reform in mind. They’ll go through the motions and rhetoric, and their juniors and subordinates will find little or no change where it matters, not only the public. Like that will benefit the citizenry.
The entire thing was planned as everyone agrees, even you and your ilk, to perpetuate military domination in economic and political life of the country. The ethnic minorities will have a few representatives speaking on their behalf in parliament, a talking shop of sorts, only to be gagged or sidelined where it matters.
Leslie Hayden indulged herself a bit in wishful thinking:
“Allowing international election monitors, lifting laws that restrict free and fair debate, and freeing key political prisoners could be tied to lifting specific sanctions.”
The generals evidently did not think that was a fair trade off. Let’s see how Derek Mitchell fares.
Now the clincher:
“… it will strengthen our position and influence inside when change does come, so we can assist the Burmese to reform their political and economic systems in a manner that best promotes U.S. economic and strategic interests.”
Here endeth your bible.
0
0
Sorry, it was Shari Villarosa, not Leslie Hayden, who filed the report from the US Emabassy in Rangoon:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/161881
0
0
“The present US charge d’affaires, Larry Dinger, in a cable in April last year, proposed various ways of improving ties with Burma, including aid, which he cynically suggested could undermine the regime.
“If properly designed, such assistance builds the basic capacity of people at the grassroots to survive and to think beyond mere subsistence to political goals. Such aid is subversive more directly as well: recipients understand who helps them (international donors) and who doesn’t (the regime),” Dinger said.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/09/wikileaks-china-impatience-with-burma?intcmp=239
@#27
Is it time for old stooges like you and your ilk to rethink helping the citizenry first instead of, punishing more to change an already repeatedly proven uncaring government?
0
0
plan B,
Old stooge? Speak for yourself, mate. Trouble with you is you can’t think out of the box, and you blame the West’s useless careless policy for the stalemate whereas you are more than happy to let the military regime get off scot free with just the SOS label. To me both violent and non-violent options are legitimate and must be considered.
Bear in mind the policy of ‘nudge’ is fashionable not just with Obama, David Cameron believes in it too especially with their Middle East buddies, and not just Israel, but they take exception to those who openly defy them.
The US administration, particularly the business lobby’s politicians, are bending over backwards to resume ties with Burma. The regime on its part as far as business is concerned will just bend over period. They never liked the Chinese anyway.
If only the regime gives an inch politically, say the amnesty will include political prisoners (of course they don’t exist, do they?). Can you imagine the American voters cheering on as their leaders just bend over?
A reality check is not just for the others, mate.
0
0
Ko Moe Aung
Anyone here @ New Mandala ever raise this question.
Is Myanmar citizenry plight equal to the sum of West or whatever west is represented vs the government of Myanmar?
Let see:
1) When was Myanmar government ever “NUDGED”?
From one extreme of Laissez Fair to the other extreme R2P and anything in between with the like of AI,UN, ERI etc.
2) Ever a moment of useless careless vilification from day 1?
Goons, Uneducated, Tail wagging dog lucky Myanmar does not have lese majesté.
I am quite sure that should negate your west’s attempt at “ENGAGMENT” a fraud as well.
The west repeated denigrate this present atrocious government absolutely without regards for the citizenry plight degrade their overall will to success further.
This must be the ISSUE if one is to succeed in changing the present quagmire.
In doing ceaselessly unacceptably trivialized the plight of the citizenry,especially the most vulnerable ones.
Anyone here @ New Mandala ever raise this question.
Is Myanmar citizenry plight equal to the sum of West or whatever west is represent vs the government of Myanmar?
0
0
I think one of the reasons that why the Myitsone Dam is so important to Kachin people and KIO/KIA is military strategically it is very important for controlling the areas of Northern Kachin State which is upstream areas of Irrawaddy River. KIA has controlled most of the areas that dam sits located upper the Irrawaddy river (Myisone) since the past time. KIA has No.1 battalion in the area and most of its post are station along the Malihka and N mai hka river side. Since there is the natural obstacle of the narrow, rocky and strong speed of flow the river the Burmese Military cannot easy reach to those areas.
But if there is the dam, more Burmese Troops will be deployed for the security reason which mean that the lose of control of KIA on those areas. Defiantly the level of water will be rising up for over a hundred foots high by the dam, and all of the KIA’s control areas and it’s military bases will be under the water in automatically. Then the government troops can be easily reached to all of the areas without any obstacles by the boats or warships. Therefore It is reasonable for KIA should be concerned over the control of their areas.
0
0
Thanks for all of these comments:
I expect to continue making regular posts about the ongoing war in Kachin State.
Today the Kachin Independence Army claims to have killed a Burmese “battalion commander” (probably a Lieutenant Colonel). This comes in a month when the Karen National Liberation Army reported another high-ranking Burmese officer was killed.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
0
0
Due to my limited language proficiency, I just wanted to point out two short notions exerted by “Plan B” which are standing out in my view.
(1) there are over 100 ethnicity within Myanmar
(2) US labelled Myanmar as an “axis of evil” and this caused military to raise its numbers up to 400 + k
(1) I love to hear the names of these so called 100+ ethnicity of Myanmar/Burma or should I point out that the Burmese dominated government created this for their own good end? I bet Plan B would have trouble naming Burma’s ethnicity just to reach up to 30. In reality, there are more than 50 sub-tribes in Chin ethnic alone which could not constitute as separate ethnicity and the government use this to serve their own agenda.
(2) this is just a “teapot calling kettle black” case and I believed that I even do not need to explain as almost everyone know that military expansion came first.
0
0