Over at East Asia Forum I have an essay on the unfolding events in Thailand. I conclude that:

During Songkran 2009 the political fault line running through Thai society has become a yawning chasm. This year it is not just the tragic annual holiday road toll that should worry us. In this Songkran crisis the potential for a catastrophic showdown between the Army and the red-shirts looms ominously over the traditional start of Thailand’s New Year.