It seems that Thais will have just two political scenarios to contend with after the upcoming poll – continued red-shirt agitation in the event of Abhisit’s return to power, or Samak-style political turbulence in the case of Pheu Thai’s resurgence.
We also have best-case – but far less likely – scenarios, one featuring a Pheu Thai government that leaves Thaksin alone and works just for Thailand, and another in which the Democrats win by a margin big enough to silence the red shirts and form a stable coalition.
– Extracted from “Post election scenarios do not bode well for stability”, The Nation, 5 May 2011.
The Economist also offers some thoughts on Thailand’s immediate prospects and concludes that “[i]t’s going to be a difficult few months for South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy”. If you want to hear some other takes on these general questions then this report featuring interviews with ANU Professor of Agricultural Economics Peter Warr and I may prove relevant.
What do you think? Are there some potentially positive outcomes on the horizon? Or does Thailand’s future after the election look bleak to you?