With the renewed Red Shirt protests on the streets of Bangkok, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban has denied that a coup is on the cards. If somebody had the time and patience it might be instructive to do a really deep trawl of the archives to see if coup “denials” have any relationship to the timing of Thailand’s previous coups. Does anyone have a sense (even a gut feeling) of whether coup denials are a good indication of an impending coup? Or is the relationship quite the opposite? I would be interested to hear your ideas.