Facebook 
Twitter 
Soundcloud 
Youtube 
Rss 
This vodcast and podcast was recorded early this evening in the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific. It features a short conversation about Thailand’s 2011 election. Another vodcast will be uploaded later in the evening once the results become clearer. Watch right to the end of this first video to see our predictions (and remember this was before any of the exit polls were announced). The podcast of this conversation is available here.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Yes, I think so. PT will win due to the majority of elected votes.
Following the two graphs, they seem positive to increase participation in Thai politics in the 2000s.
It’s a hard time for DP in politics, and it’s a hard decision for Thais to select the best choice. So, let’s see how many seats that PT will get.
0
0
Well done on your predictions, guys – at least based on the exit poll averages (which largely somewhat exceed your PT majority estimates).
Must admit, I wouldn’t have gone for a figure even as high as Andrew’s. Drinks on Nich, I guess?
0
0
Not yet! Early days!
0
0
Sigh…
While I’m a fan of the website, I’m really disappointed that neither one of you guys gave any thought to the pronunciation of the word mandala itself…
I wouldn’t mind if you followed the Thai appropriation/reinvention of the term, and I would mind if you followed standard English dictionary attempts to normalize the Sanskrit (рдордгреНрдбрд▓)…
…but there is no “long a” in Mandala. The three vowels are of the same duration (i.e., there is no macron over the second a, ya done know).
0
0
Internet connections? A pretty irrelevant and baseless conclusion, wouldn’t you say? Like saying the average skirt length has shortened in correlation with Democrat’s shrinking popularity – not really sure they are related. Such are the shenanigans I find here at ANU’s New Mandala.
I’d bet most of those connections are found where PTP has performed horribly, and having spent time in Issan and understanding the “information desolation” there eagerly filled by Weng’s indoctrination schools and “community radio,” I think your conclusion is actually backwards.
Most of the PTP supporters I talk to don’t even own a computer, even in Bangkok, let alone an Internet connection – the people that generally do, aside from a handful of nihilists do not support PTP and in fact, don’t really support the Democrats either.
Finally, 65% voter participation, there about, and PTP though a majority, not much of one out of 500 seats – so in reality how many people are actually giving PTP a mandate? Even half of Thailand’s eligible voters?
Now Andrew, you do a survey of PTP supporter who have gotten Internet access over the past 10 years and show us some real stats – my hypothesis is you will find PTP’s popularity depends on a lack of information, not access to it.
Just some things to think about.
0
0
Tony – 5
Most of the PTP supporters I talk to don’t even own a computer, even in Bangkok, let alone an Internet connection
Most of PTP supporters dont even own a computer??? excuse me, but my house got 2 laptops and 2 desktops where do you get that “most” from?
0
0
c5
“Finally, 65% voter participation, there about, and PTP though a majority, not much of one out of 500 seats – so in reality how many people are actually giving PTP a mandate? Even half of Thailand’s eligible voters?”
Good grief….. ever more desperate. Try 75+% voter “participation” – not “65%…. there about” (and you claim to value verifiable facts so much?) So, in your reality, just what do you think constitutes a mandate under the Thai multi-party system? Oh – and do tell us more of your first-hand (fully documented, of course) experience of “Weng’s indoctrination schools”.
0
0
Tarrin, I’d say a statement based on a sample of one, yourself, is a bit tenuous wouldn’t you agree? But are you trying to suggest that the majority, or even HALF of the UDD/PTP supporters have computers and actually use them for news and research? Please give me a break, I’ve lived here far to long to suffer such an insult to my intelligence. Walker has no way to prove what he is trying to insinuate without doing a massive amount of research and interviewing to see if his hypothesis is correct.
But this is what Walker does often, takes irrelevant, inappropriate samples, statistics, and correlations, and uses them to shoehorn his ideology into something resembling academia. Quite sad really – especially since he holds a Ph.D. and a position where he could do great good if he applied himself.
Now come on Andrew, you’ve got this website, you’ve got this “fellowship,” you work at a university, I am politely asking you to either be an open demagogue, or to stop disgracing science, reason, and all those that sacrificed throughout history to expand our collective body of knowledge and methodologies, and BE A REAL ACADEMIC.
0
0
Tony –
Tarrin presented himself as one counterexample of your assertion.
Now how about you trying to proof your own assertion at all? Have you perhaps conducted a massive amount of research to prove that ‘most’ red shirts have no internet connection then? Judging from your seeming confidence I assume you have, yes?
0
0
Tony, I’d say that a statement based on a sample of “most of the PTP supporters [you] talk to” is a bit tenuous, wouldn’t you agree? You are the one drawing the conclusion that increasing Internet connectivity and cell phone access are correlated with the Democrats’ shrinking popularity. And remember, correlation does not equal causation.
In 1992 (the last time the Dems won a [legitimate] election) what did the (any) opposition have in terms of access to alternative information? Not the newspapers. Not the TV stations. Maybe some community radio stations? Increased access to the Internet and cell phones, for better or for worse, means increased and faster access to information and alternative points of view. Whether 5% or 50% or more of PTP supporters currently have such access is somewhat irrelevant – an increase from 0% in 1992 to 5% in 2011 is still significant statistics-wise… maybe it’s time you study up.
0
0
Note what I said in the interview: “The point I’m making here is Thailand is very different to what it was in 1992 and I’m not sure that the Democrats have been able to adapt to that very profound transformation in Thai society.” I am clearly not suggesting a direct correlation between internet use or mobile phone ownership and the Democrat vote. I am using these as indicators of the extent of change in Thailand that has taken place since the Democrats last won government as a result of an election. AW
0
0
On connectivity, it is a bit dumb to talk about ownership of computers. In many villages and towns the internet cafes are hard to miss. In addition, mobile phones now provide access to the internet for many and SMS passes on many ideas that are drawn from the internet. So ownership of a clunky computer is but one factor to consider.
0
0
Tony – 8
But this is what Walker does often, takes irrelevant, inappropriate samples, statistics, and correlations, and uses them to shoehorn his ideology into something resembling academia.
Tony it’s not often that I defend Andrew Walker, and I suspect it isn’t especially appreciated, needed or wanted, but I did listen to the podcast and I don’t think he implied that increased internet connections and mobile phones directly contributed to the PT victory.
As you say internet access in the northeast is probably not that common at home and using mobile phones for this access strikes me as rather expensive when I do it. Then again we do see young people of all educational levels using the internet whether it’s through mobile phones, home connections or internet cafes. What would be extremely hard to prove as you say is that internet access favours the PT. It could be equally supposed that the Democrats, because of a more urban base, would get more out of it.
Standing back a little from just Thailand and looking at recent political developments around the world, especially in the non-industrialized and the former eastern block nations, I suspect the new media actually inherently helps the opposition rather than the establishment, so there may be some truth in the implication that wasn’t made as far as I can see. 🙂
Still if this is the case we may see a role reversal as the Democrats are now the opposition. I have been thinking what issues are going to stir up opposition campaigns and the obvious one that has to be faced is when PT tries to push through an amnesty for Thaksin and the red shirt leaders.
Having said that there is another issue that I guess will have people in the streets which we haven’t mentioned much. I suspect the PT will be looking at privatising state enterprises in order to pay for some of their economic giveaways. As we know there is little love from the state enterprise unions towards Thaksin because this is what he was attempting to last time. It’s noticeable that Chuwit sees the airport link deals as the corruption to lead on against PT. There were suspicions of contracts for friends as the SRT was frozen out.
It will be interesting though if we have workers in the streets where some sympathies will lie on New Mandala. Maybe it’s easier being in opposition.
0
0
Andrew Walker 11
“The point I’m making here is Thailand is very different to what it was in 1992″
Andrew,
A tall order I know but would you care to estimate how long it will take for a Pheua Thai government to:
1) Repeal/review the Les Majeste laws
2) Bring the military under the control of a civilian government
3) Root out institutional corruption
4) Promulgate a reasonable constitution with checks and balances on executive power.
I wont bother asking about investigation punishment of past misdemeanours for any of the big players as thats obviously been sorted under the table and the buzzword is as always”national unity”
Nice to see Genl Sonthi is happy to work with the new government if there are any scraps left.
0
0
Tammany: answers inserted below, in italics.
“Andrew, A tall order I know but would you care to estimate how long it will take for a Pheua Thai government to:
1) Repeal/review the Les Majeste laws. Lunchtime tomorrow.
2) Bring the military under the control of a civilian government. Around 11 AM on Thursday.
3) Root out institutional corruption. That’s a tough one. Probably next Monday or Tuesday.
4) Promulgate a reasonable constitution with checks and balances on executive power. August 12, 2 PM
Note that these are preliminary estimates and may need to be revised as events unfold.
0
0
“Thailand is very different to what it was in 1992” So was Australia. Back in 1992, the country was full of bogans, skinheads and racist white supremacists !
0
0
Andrew Walker, and the rest here, are slaves of intellectual dishonesty. EVERY nation is different than it was in 1992, and you know full well you were once again shoehorning your ideology into some pseudo-academic argument suggesting that people have more access to information so are less supportive of the traditional establishments.
Fact is PTP has a 38% mandate by eligible voters – not anything even close to resembling a majority – but rather a slim majority in an election with poor turn out. When much less than half of eligible voters vote for you, despite having more votes than other parties, is it fair to say you have a real mandate to run the country?
Let’s be honest – and the answer is no, you don’t. You may have performed better than other parties, but you have no clear mandate, nor boast majority support of the nation you run. This is one of many flaws in “democracy.” When you consider that 38% disregarded the rule of law and voted for a party overtly run by a convicted criminal, that 38% doesn’t if stand legitimately.
I have the greatest sympathy for those who do not like the current government, however, PTP is not an improvement, unless of course you are for free-trade, globalization, and the global corporatocracy despoiling yet another nation.
0
0
[…] is because while imposter academics like Dr. Andrew Walker of Australia’s National University throw up unrelated correlations between a growing number of Internet connections in Thailand and PTP’s rising popularity, […]
0
0
Can I add my congratulations to Tony’s on the fact that “you” did okay in the election. I hadn’t noticed the NM Party campaigning, but I always accept that Tony is dealing with facts only, so well done guys!
And I love his math. Just classic.
0
0
After their temporary “disorganization” from the Rajadumnern, PAD come up with a new name: Tony
0
0
“Tony”:
Reading your articles i noticed another rather blatant mistake. The king’s philosophy is not called “self-sufficiency theory”, but just “sufficiency theory”.
It would be of advantage of people actually understand what they write about… 😉
0
0
[…] is because while imposter academics like Dr. Andrew Walker of Australia’s National University throw up unrelated correlations between a growing number of Internet connections in Thailand and PTP’s rising popularity, reality […]
0
0
Nick, in my article, I’M calling it “self-sufficiency economy.” It’s called “New Theory,” I’m calling it that so people can understand what it is. But of course I don’t expect you to debate over content, no, arguing semantics and perhaps checking my spelling is right about at your level.
I am astounded how self-proclaimed academics and journalists here crutch themselves along on intellectual dishonesty and nit picking. How about the overall concept Nick? Is there something wrong with educating people and encouraging them to do as much as possible on their own? Is there something wrong with growing your own food when you can, learning technical skills and solving local problems with local solutions instead of relying on a corrupt government? Is there something wrong with encouraging people to learn and utilize new technology to start up local, micro-manufacturing to augment their agricultural activities and enhance the quality of their own lives – not through handouts, but by their own, technically competent hands?
That’s the crux of that article you’re referring to. But I suppose in your haste to malign me, you didn’t actually read the content, too busy trying to pick out things you could stick me with. Very journalistic and objective, Nick, I really must say.
And still, I was talking about PTP’s dismal 38% mandate – but I guess that’s an ugly fact you aren’t intellectually armed to face.
0
0
I’m sorry, my math is wrong, Steve is totally right – I am no good with numbers. Let me correct myself.
Of the 74% the Election Commission said showed up to vote, only 40% actually cast a vote for PTP, not even a majority out of the 74%. But when you consider total eligible voters, only 29.6% voted for Peua Thai. That’s not a mandate, that’s a symptom of a whole system that is illegitimate.
My 38% number came from counting the seats PTP won, not the actual number of people who voted. So 29.6%, even if I round it up to 30% out of generosity is admittedly embarrassing for a party that claims to represent the aspirations of a new Thai era….
Now you can say they have “more of a mandate” than the Democrats, but I think that’s a lot like saying a 5th grader is more qualified to carry out brain surgery than a 3rd grader. In reality neither belongs in the hospital let alone the operating theater.
0
0
[…] is because while imposter academics like Dr. Andrew Walker of Australia’s National University throw up unrelated correlations between a growing number of Internet connections in Thailand and PTP’s rising popularity, […]
0
0