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For those who thought yesterday’s event was bad, think again. The real fight is just unfolding. Yesterday’s clashes gave forces from both sides a good feel of one another’s strength and resolve. Like two cautious pugilists meeting in the ring for the first time after a much hyped promotion, clashes between the Government troops and red demonstrators thus far is probably only a prelude to what’s in the offing.
The next few days are likely to see heavy fighting. The ground zero is still teeming with reds and others outside the perimeters of Ratchaprasong intersection are getting organised. At least one source indicates that some taxi and tuk-tuk drivers are getting organised at Suan Phlu, which is adjacent to Lumpini/Silom area. The areas saw heavy clashes yesterday. Drivers of motorcycle taxis along Sathorn road are also telling some pedestrians on the street to go back home as they expect more clashes.
Whichever it plays out, eventually from a physical perspective, the reds will inevitably bow down. They can create mayhem (reports are coming in indicating they have set fire to some buildings around the Lumpini boxing stadium), but that’s probably the furthest they can go. Of course, the much vaunted black-clad paramilitary troops haven’t made their grand entry. If they do, it would perhaps prolong the battle a bit more. On the other hand, the shadowy group might perhaps remain shadowy now that their alleged head Maj. Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol’s influence had been incapacitated by a well-placed .308 bullet.
But physical battle is just part of it. The real fight is politics. Who will emerge victorious from a PR perspective is the key to understand how things will unfold. Both parties (as well others in the game) will be shuffling their steps and doing verbal gymnastics (more than then the usual, that is) to get the positioning right, so that when everything settles down, they are able to get out of this mess with relatively less taint.
What I have written thus far is of course conventional wisdom. But will conventional wisdom rule the day in a country where politics has become so convoluted that no serious political analyst/journalist can actually write something without ever having a second thought? I am not too sure. There are simply too many political players and the dynamics in terms of political interest against political resources is changing so quickly that probably only the main leaders might have an inkling of what’s happening. While the reds and the Government forces are having a go at each other, the unseen hands of the Privy Council, PAD (yellow-shirts) and the army/police are actively at work. And of course we should also not discount the health conditions of the two key protagonists in the drama – Thaksin Shinawatra and King Bhumibol Adulyadej. How will that play out?
This simply means that whatever the outcome of the battle in the next few days, one thing is sure, the war is still on. It is a war which not only has the boxers in the ring slugging it out, but also with the real possibility of having the umpire (police/army), cornermen (yellow/multicoloured faction) and the crowd (Privy Council and other forces, including foreigners) entering the ring to get a piece of the action. The smart money is that the Government of the day led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will be the first casualty.
But everyone is fighting it out without considering the enormous economic and political ramification to Thailand as a whole. Thailand’s economic growth for the year will be badly hampered if matters prolong. As it is this year’s drought will have a telling impact on country’s exports of agri-produce. The tourism sector is in sorry state. FDI numbers are being affected by the Map Tha Phut case. Political instability will further erode FDI numbers, which is Thailand main engine of growth apart from exports. In fact personal feedback from members of Thailand’s powerful Joint Foreign Chamber of Commerce in Thailand (JFCCT) indicates the unstable political conditions are making them very wary of investing further in Thailand.
On a political/social level, the ideological undertones of this political crisis are too deep to be put aside. Thaksin’s current role on the red’s movement is enormous but somewhere along the way, it appears the reds’ struggle has expanded beyond Thaksin (though they would still need his money to remain a potent political force) and is now positioned as a class struggle.
As such, the wounds inflicted on Thailand’s psyche and image in the next few days could have a lasting impact on Thailand future growth as a nation. That’s a greater wound that all the grenades, .308 bullets and armoured personal carriers can inflict on the Thai people. Is our boxing ensemble ready for that?
“others outside the perimeters of Ratchaprasong intersection are getting organised”
Reds occupy Din Daeng intersection Bangkok Post 15/05/2010 at 12:39 PM
A group of anti-government protesters have occupied Din Daeng intersection, forcing cars and other vehicles to turn to Ratchaprarop road. The army prohibits any types of vehicles from entering Ratchaprarop. The demonstrators have blockaded Din Daeng intersection with tyres, steel pipes and woods in an attempt to pressure the army. The roadblocks force commuters to turn to Ratchaprarop road. Initial reports said many people were injured in clashes in Soi Rang Nam near the Victory Monument.
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Was it really a .308 rifle bullet?
I’ve seen uncorroborated reports saying that it was a high-velocity bullet, but nothing saying that it was specifically a .308. Please provide source.
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Thai Protest Leaders Press for Ceasefire as Deadly Clashes Continue
Leaders of an anti-government protest in Thailand are asking for a ceasefire to end violence that has killed 10 people and wounded more than 100 others.
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Thai-Protest-Leaders-Press-for-Ceasefire-as-Deadly-Clashes-Continue-93784399.html
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Great post, but one thing I feel you have understandably overlooked is what’s going on outside of Bangkok. For instance, red shirts are mobilising in Ubon for a protest this evening. There were photos of a tire barricade there on picasa sourced from the #redshirts stream, but they have seemingly been deleted. Apparently there were shots fired in Ayutthaya this afternoon too?
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it seems only logical that those who shot Seh Daeng will sooner or later eventually meet similar fate. I mean: of course, all the bunch of buddies of slain (on Apr 10) Romklao naturally were pissed off and decided to take a revenge on most obvious target, whom they alleged either carried out that hit or ordered it. the fact of course is being ignored or denied that Prayuth then has ordered to deploy snipers to shoot people, and that those “men in black” actually prevented many more protesters deaths in the most swift and effective way: taking out the whole command of the crackdown contingent.
now, with Seh Daeng shot, perhaps fair to say – dead, – it would again backfire at those who shot him and who ordered that.
snipers shooting unarmed people, even passers by or local residents, is no anyone’s doubt anymore. photos, eyewitness reports, western MSM confirmations provide more than enough evidences.
so, what is the natural reaction to such a ruthless killing ? either people surrender to such a brutal force or … they fight back. looks like there is no sign of surrendering so far. which leaves another option.
one thing is sure: at least those different army factions now openly engaged in all out offensive. and it is just a matter of time before some other tough golf-soldiers (from Anupong & Prayuth’s club) will start being picked out here and there.
after all that’s what Seh Daeng said as much himself back in Apr, when some PADsters has being quoted by Nation saying “he will be hunted” – he replied that “hunters also can become hunted”
that’s what I guess (or even bet) will happen – “hunters become hunted“. army has a lot of experience in that: reportedly the WHOLE so called “South Thailand insurgency” is nothing else than different army commands / divisions / factions killing rivals’ troops, and stage it as some sort of BS “ambushed / bombed by insurgents”
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Media War – 5
and that those “men in black” actually prevented many more protesters deaths in the most swift and effective way: taking out the whole command of the crackdown contingent.
I do wonder what the civilian/protester casualty rate was before and after the “taking out the whole command…”? It did seem to go up at that point didn’t it?
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Just finished a recon of the protest. My thesis remains unchanged: there aren’t enough soldiers to shut down Ratchaprasong. Anupong is subverting Abhisit on this. He’s throwing just enough soldiers to give the appearance of doing his job, but in reality he’s falling far short strategically.
These are the options the way I see them (after circulating throughout these protests for 8 weeks among the soldiers and the reds on my bike):
1. The military leadership does not want to get dragged into a battle with civilians at Ratchaprasong because of the futility of such an operation both militarily and politically. The military can intimidate, but they are not willing to kill countless people (including kids and women). At least 5 thousand troops would be needed. Where are they? I haven’t seen them and I have been everywhere. Anupong is subverting the government and waiting for Abhisit to go.
2. The military will surround the protest and starve it so Ratchaprasong slowly withers until the crowd is small enough to then go in. If what I have seen is the “squeeze” of such a maneuver, it isn’t going to work as there would be still much opportunity to get food and water to Ratchaprasong.
3. What I have seen, which hasn’t made sense strategically, is really some master plan of genius where the military is providing distractions so a blitzkrieg comes in the middle of the night via a major highway or off the trains that surprises everyone.
4. The military is just horrifically incompetent.
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There are two aspects to the Thai national personality: politeness and ritual (The Thai of ‘The Land of Smiles’); and its diametric opposite, the Thai Fighter, savage unrestrained without rules (Thai Boxing). The attempted assassination of Seh Daeng essentially signaled the coming off of gloves by the Ammataya, the entry of the unrestrained Thai. The Bangkok elites and the military have essentially came to a considered assessment that the Phrai would again be cowed, would back down, before an Ammataya show of force – as the Phrai had always done for millennia. But this is the 21stC, and the internet. It would be interesting to see if this assessment, this gamble, comes off.
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You are saying that the reds have set fire on a few buildings around the Lumphini Stadium, but they can’t go much further than that.
Why do you think that they can’t go for the shopping malls, if things are turning very ugly?
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Strange to say, at first glance there’s not so much of the usual cant and bias for which New Mandala has a well-deserved reputation.
So let’s get serious: Does anyone really believe that the final body-count will come close to the widely accepted 2,000 or so that Thaksin set as the quota during his “war on drugs”? I’d hazard a guess that it will be less than 10% of that.
As to the theory espoused above that Thailand has lost it’s faith in “electoral democracy”, if so then the record shows that this process became powerfully virulent under Thaksin’s anti-democratic and anti-intellectual regime and his trampling of the check and balance mechanisms it enshrined – or to put it in more colloquial terms:
Thaksin Zig-Zag # One
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P.S. i.e. Enshrined in the1997 “Peoples Constitution”
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Kishen you’re writing great stuff – so good in fact, it requires lengthy analysis.
But I’d just like to make this short comment :
“CLASS struggle” ?
I remain unconvinced we’re seeing anything like a fully developed CLASS consciousness.
Eg. The Red Shirts don’t have much class support in the Democrat-dominated South.
I strongly suggest the class element is closely entwined with REGIONALISM – especially Lao / Isaarn and Lanna / Chiang Mai and Chieng Rai regionalism.
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If the Phrai truly carries through with their saying, “The blood of the phrai is worth nothing” (a phrase which has multiple connotations, among which are: a Phrai is deemed ‘worthless’, and for a Phrai to shed his blood in the sacrifice of struggle is nothing) I should think that if the Thai Phrai, at this moment of time, has that mental resoluteness and fortitude to fight on irregardless, to carry matters through to the bitter end, I do not really see how the Bangkok elites, military and Ammataya could possibly prevail. Even if they could clear Bangkok, as they clearly could albeit with great bloodshed, it still remains available for the Phrai to carry out subsequent multiple hit and run attacks. Such attacks, classic asymmetric incidents, with the perpetrators ‘swimming’ in a sea of sympathetic populace would be very disruptive and economically very costly. And all that the Phrai is asking for is fair democratic elections as a circuit breaker to the present ruptures. The Ammataya on pure cost/benefit analysis alone should come to the conclusion that democratic elections, with the results respected, represents the only solution; the ‘costs’ of grievous turmoil continuing would be just too much. This would only be if the Phrai has that mental resoluteness and fortitude to fight on irregardless, to carry matters through to the bitter end. I am not sure of this though.
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Why do you think that they can’t go for the shopping malls, if things are turning very ugly?
Why don’t they threaten to destroy Paragon? The Ammataya’s playground. The army would be called off I believe if they thought it was wired up with some home made fireworks etc explosives. The redshirts have been remarkably disciplined. There have been no reports of looting. This a fight for democracy but I agree should elections be called and the Pheu Thai won would General Prayuth guarantee the safety of the government against PAD etc? We can only hope that the thai public will gain and understanding of how Thai society really works. .
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What really concerns me is the intimacy of the in-fighting: most of the participants went to the same schools, or rival schools, and met in coffee-houses and other places of distraction. The class warfare of which you speak is more closely seen as family warfare. Which makes this such a tragic situation.
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I don’t think the red shirts would go for the shopping malls, as both Siam Paragon and Central World is located on land owned by The Bureau of the Crown Property.
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Pete, I don’t think the ownership of the land means anything.
If the crackdown does come to the final stages, and troops do charge in firing, will some protesters break down the glass doors and seek refuge inside the malls? Yes. But with troops chasing them down, I don’t think they’ll bother looting the latest Zegna jackets.
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