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New Mandala regular Pavin Chachavalpongpun, recently appointed as Associate Professor at the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, has penned a new analysis of the evolving relationship between deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Thailand’s other elite political players.
Pavin maks a provocative argument:
…if Thaksin does indeed return to Thailand, it could only mean one thing: The success of his enemies in preserving the integrity of the military and the monarchy in exchange for his freedom.
This sounds plausible to me. But there is also no doubt that arrangements of this style, especially where there is a history of such bad-blood, can become dangerously unstable. The unravelling of a deal like the one Pavin proposes could be incredibly destructive.
Yesterday I asked whether it was either a royal pardon for Thaksin or a coup for the king? Pavin reminds us that if Thaksin returns to Thailand factions in the military, and the palace, will have extracted a price.
But I still wonder: Can any such deal last, especially after King Bhumibol Adulyadej is no longer on the throne?
a ‘new analysis’ from pavin?
not really as all this has been said several times before, hasn’t it?
‘What will be the future direction of Thai democracy amid this power rearrangement among the elites?’ is the question pavin ends his piece with. where are red shirts and thai voters in his analysis? does pavin really see them as a non-consequential actor in the entire thing?
i saw on an facebook posting that pavin once wrote about how ethical and moral abhisit was after he took power in 2008. does pavin needs to have a better grounding in how democracy itself works?
http://thailandjumpedtheshark.blogspot.co.uk/2009/07/deconstructing-pavin-chachavalpongpun.html
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> “a ‘new analysis’ from pavin?”
Well, perhaps I know where you’re coming from anon. Thankfully his ‘analysis’ is a lot less regular on here these days. One piece published in 2012 was very poor and another was just dross. Aside from analysis or insight, good old fact-checking doesn’t really float his boat either.
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The Economist’s more regional take on the recent rally: http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2012/04/thaksin-cambodia?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/newyearspartying
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anon – 1
where are red shirts and thai voters in his analysis? does pavin really see them as a non-consequential actor in the entire thing? …… does pavin needs to have a better grounding in how democracy itself works?
You’ve based your question on assumption that Thailand is “democratic”. Actually, no matter how big of the crowd the red can mustered or how large of the vote PTP can get from the ballot box, it matter very little under current political system.
The prove of that?? Thaksin still got kick out from the coup, and he got 17 millions vote under the belt.
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