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Is the Philippines heading towards developmental authoritarianism?
This May, tough-talking and controversial former mayor of Davao City, Rodrigo Duterte, romped to victory in the Philippines presidential elections.
Before his win, Duterte had promised to eradicate the Philippines’ endemic crime and corruption, one of the highest in Asia, within 60 days. Now he is making good on his campaign claim by waging a bloody anti-drug war in a country where a big chunk of the population lives in poverty.
The spate of extra-judicial killings, which Philippines media now number as more than 1,200, since he assumed the presidency in July has divided the nation. It has also generated condemnation from within and outside the Philippines, including the United Nations and human rights bodies.
Despite tumultuous political developments, since it toppled the Marcos dictatorship in the People Power revolution of 1986 the Philippines has emerged as a bright spot for democracy in Asia. It has also delivered impressive economic development averaging six per cent GDP growth each year. However, it should be noted that the rule of law still lags behind the country’s democratic development.
The past government of President Benigno Aquino Jr also concluded peace negotiations with the biggest Muslim insurgency group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has been waging an insurgency in Mindanao since 1969. The international community has widely supported the peace deal. Can these developments be sustained under Duterte?
The charismatic ‘President Rody’, as he is called by many Filipinos, appears to be an enigma, however. Whether Duterte’s first 100 days are a prelude to entrenching an authoritarian regime is a key question for both academics and observers. His rule also represents a paradox.
Duterte’s brutal policy on drugs is incomprehensible if compared to his other governance and policy reforms. For example, he has appointed diverse and highly qualified ministerial personnel from all political spectrum, the academe, and the private sector.
The new president also signed the freedom of information directive to the executive department that had eluded past administrations. Duterte is seeking a more comprehensive peace settlement with communist rebels and other Muslim insurgent groups.
Duterte’s administration is also going after ‘oligarchs’ who have interfered or manipulated Philippine politics, the big tax cheats, and recently an over-blown bureaucracy teeming with political appointees.
Newly-elected members of the Philippine Congress are looking into a federal system of government. The President has also shown restraint in dealing with China even after the Philippines’ win in the arbitration tribunal on the South China Sea issue.
Beyond Duterte’s war on drugs, domestic and foreign businesses are applauding the administration’s comprehensive economic agenda. Expansion of businesses and faster growth are expected under the ‘iron watch’ of the President.
How do we assess the new Philippine presidency and how will his policy directions affect the country’s political and economic fortunes? What does it mean for democracies’ future in the Philippines and the region?
And after 70 years of bilateral ties, how can Australian engage constructively with the Duterte administration in fostering values of democracy, the rule of law, inclusive growth, and the promotion of peace and stability in Asia?
These are all crucial issues, and each will be examined by experts, academics, and policy makers in the two-day Philippine Update conference taking place at the Australian National University on 2-3 September.
Bringing together experts from around the world, the conference will take stock of political, economic and social developments of the previous administration and the Philippines’ prospects under Rodrigo Duterte.
And for good reason – the paradox of Rodrigo Duterte may be one of the most important puzzles the Philippines, the region, and Australia need to solve in coming years.
Dr Imelda Deinla is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the School of Regulation and Global Governance, the Australian National University, and co-convenor of the 2016 Philippine Update taking place 2-3 September.
Can the so called ‘war on drugs’ better be understood as a purge of public officials and politicians engaged in criminality? That would be more comprehensible in the context of his overall political agenda
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1. Good to see that Philippines is now getting significantly greater coverage in New Mandala – thank you Digong
2. Looking forward to seeing the conclusions of the experts gathering in Canberra in the next two days on the NM site shortly
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The Chinese will exploit this visibly weak leader whose only policy is to shoot the poor and defenseless.He has no foreign policy, just a string of abuse to everyone from the Pope onwards. The Chinese will see him for what he is and Filipino fishermen will no longer be allowed to fish Philippine waters without China’s permission, which will surely be withheld. Without the backing of US and her Allies, Duterte will become a disgraced nobody and will need to be removed which I am sure the Filipino people are capable of achieving.
The same brave Filipino spirit that toppled Marcos will need to be dusted off and brought back into action, that was the most uplifting World event I have ever witnessed.
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The same “brave” spirit that kept the country in a rut till now? Is that the spirit you are talking about? The same rut that the US military has kept the Philippinos, while exploiting their deep water bay for the US military bases?
In the 1960s, the Philippines was way ahead of the rest of Asean in terms of development and standard of living BUT now? have to be blind to say that the Philippines is doing well!
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If you have to choose between Russia, China and USA for aid/$, which country you will, Neptunian ? Are u a toad in the deep well now ? Google and be smart at last…
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I understand where you are coming from. You are ill equipped with information or you are simply misinformed. Before coming up with strong words against our President, come and visit our country so you can have a better grasp of what you are talking about. Our President is doing what others can’t or won’t do…..give a new beginning to our country that has become a narco-political state because of the ineptness of our past leaders. It is a purging process and although there are some collateral damage, the people at threat now are the criminals unlike before where the peace loving people that are in danger.
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Well Art good luck to you with all that. Na may isang taon ay walang pagkakaiba. Na walang.
In 1960s and 70s Philippines was the bright star of the East. Then Duterte’s hero Marcos arrived, martial law, extra judicial killings, corruption on a World record scale , wars against NPA and Muslims, all that destroyed the country’s image and its economy. Millions of people were forced to take to the streets to remove the disastrous dictator. A country does not progress by simply shooting people you do not like, Pol Pot proved that.
Now there is an important part Duterte is overlooking when he tells the world to F… off. Because my family are Filipino, I have been involved in fund raising internationally after numerous disasters. Ormoc, Tacloban, Baguio, Mt Pinutobo, Tacloban again Samar again and so on. Philippines has a huge number of natural disasters, the most typhoon prone region in the World, there will be typhoons and resultant destruction again and again, it will not be possible to raise money abroad so easily because Duterte has already told us plus the Pope to F… off. As luck would have it I have got all my family out of Philippines over the years and we have already f…ed off. Happy to come back after the killing has stopped and a patriotic leader has been installed, a leader that is prepared to stand up to China as most Filipinos are prepared to do. Having lived and survived the Marcos regime, so sad to see it all coming around again. Thailand’s Thaksin executed thousands of supposed ” Drug people” did not make the slightest difference to the original root problem except it did make the bereaved families very sad, many of whom had never touched a drug.
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Simply untrue Neptunian.
We established our business in Philippines in the last days of Marcos because foreign investement had dried up and everything was so cheap. You could stay at a 5 star hotel for peanuts, no one was going there. Gradually, after the massive looting and wars against NPA and Muslims decreased the business has picked up to the point that at the time of Duterte’s election RP is the brightest star of Asean for econmic growth. If he can find a way to tackle the issue of too many children per family with out shooting them then I will praise him.
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Your take on the Philippines ‘progress’ was going so well until that ‘…kept the country in a rut till now’. Till now Nep? You really believe that because Duterte carries. that ‘extra-judicial murderous bent’ a-la Thaksin that the Pinoys are on an economic/social renaissance?
That’s wishful thinking and naïveté me thinks.
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Your reference to Thaksin is very apt Vichai. He killed 1,000s without denting the problem which is complex.
Marcos bombed the crap out of the Southern Muslims, it only made them angry.
Shooting, bombing does not work in the modern world and is is widely publicised that the unfortunate Filipino victims are amongst the poorest of the poor.
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Am not sure about that ” shooting and bombing does not work ….” though Hugh.
Ecclesiastes 3: ” … For every reason, there is a season …. A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to ….”
That’s the way the world is Hugh.
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Vichai, if you are going to quote the Bible why not include the Ten Commandments. That is the basis for the laws of the majority of countries in the World, Christian and non Christian, just to refresh you anyway: Commandment no. 7 ” Thou shalt not kill”
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The Ten Commandants aren’t the basis of law in any country that I am aware of and play no role at all in the majority of the world, which is not Christian.
More importantly, Christians themselves hardly pay any attention to it:
“Too many people have lied in the name of Christ
For anyone to heed the call.
So many people have died in the name of Christ
That I can’t believe it all.”
Crosby, Stills and Nash
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The 10 commandments cover lying, stealing, killing, adultery honouring the family which are the basis for laws in almost every country except the People’s Republic of China. That does not mean folk obey unfortunately. Crosby Stills Nash and Young are good, very good. Bob Dylan also.
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Seriously! Do you classify the US as a Christian country? If yes, then please explain the Atomic bombs on japan – NOT 1 but 2. How does that gel with “thou shall not kill”?
Please stop quoting or raising religion as a “standard”. Worst possible example – thru the ages, religion killed more people than all the diseases put together.
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Oh, so you aren’t Asian, Neptunian. Unless you’re Japanese, few Asians could be so ignorant. By August 1945, close to 20 million must have died in Asia in the war. China suffered the most but in the Philippines, for example, about 1 million died. In spring 1945, about 100,000 died in Manila alone in house-to-house fighting between the Japanese and US/Filipino troops. Most of the city was flattened. In Myanmar, more cities were reduced to ashes. Imagine five armies crisscrossing that country.
The Japanese themselves were developing an atomic bomb. When you become aware of Japan’s use of biological weapons in China, their bizarre medical experiments on live prisoners, widespread civilian bombing, the systematic murders of prisoners of war (a much greater proportion of Chinese POWs than westerners), especially as 1945 onward, you realized that the Japanese would readily have used such a weapon. Then there was the forced labor of Chinese, Koreans, Malays; beheading of ethnic Chinese everywhere …the forced prostitution of so many Koreans, Taiwan Chinese women and Japanese women too …
Well,, then you can understand why there was widespread rejoicing throughout Asia when they learned of this miracle bomb. Did you know that more people died during Japan’s months-long rampage in Nanjing (about 300,000) than died from the repercussions of the bombs? Yes, of course, there was terrible suffering from the bombs–undeniable. I don’t get it, though: how many more (non-Japanese) people in Asia should have suffered, and died (don’t forget starvation!) while waiting for the land battles, and invasion of Japan–in lieu of the atomic bombs? The thinking was that defeating Japan by conventional warfare would take years.
If you spent any time in Japan, you would know that the Japanese sometimes depict themselves and European Jews as the greatest victims of WW2. Let’s just say not many (even moderately informed) people in the world agree with them.
>>thru the ages, religion killed more people than all the diseases put together.
How would one quantify that? 90% of the indigenous population of the Americas died within 100 years of Columbus’s arrival–primarily (by far) due to the alien diseases introduced. The Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, British and French certainly weren’t very benign occupiers but, the population didn’t decline so sharply due to murder.
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I am a forward looking person, citizen of the world. You want to bring in history and justifications for mass murders? Go thru the history books. The world is as is today due to the evolution of history. Who is to say how the world would be if history had turned out different?
Please do not try to justify the use of the “A-bomb”. If only one was dropped, then maybe you can try, but two?
While you are at it (justifying), try justifying the poisoning of aborigines in Australia by white immigrants. BTW the crusades is a “holy war”
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Some call it PARADOX, others just politics…
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Don’t be naive Hugh Cameron. Look at The Philippines, a 90% Catholic nation I think. And yet they voted in Duterte whose election slogan is ‘To Shoot to Kill any suspect who moves’.
And I don’t know much about the bible either. I was actually googling for ‘The Byrds’ song ‘Turn, Turn,Turn’ and the Ecclesiastes just popped up too, so I quoted the latter to impress.
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Do not be naive Vichai, Philippines are about 92% catholic, but do not believe in the practice of Christianity, my wife before marriage had been a nun in the church and you do not get closer to the church than that. The Filipinos are the nicest people on the planet but a large percentage only to go to the church to ask forgiveness and once they feel God has forgiven them they go out from the church and kill again and again. My wife had had many affairs with priests before we met so I know a thing or two or three. By the way the Byrds were great! Mr Tambourine Man and all that ?
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Same for Catholic Vietnameses, go to the church on Sunday to ask forgiveness and then repeat the sins again and again.
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VichaiN – are you sure you were not googling “turn-coat” ?
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BREAKING NEWS.
Bombing in Davao night market kills 12, injures dozens, very sad to see that.
If you insist on living by the sword you will certainly die by bombings
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“Events… dear boy, events” as a former British PM once said to a junior colleague as to what are the greatest challenges in politics and foreign relations.
The declaration of a “state of lawlessness” – the first stage before a stage of emergency and the declaration of martial law – by President Duterte after the bombings can be interpreted either as a moderate (for him untypical) response, or as a first graduated step in following in the steps of his hero Marcos. If the latter is the case Imelda Deinla’s thesis would be confirmed.
At this point the declaration has the advantage of placating the military who, I gather, are not too happy with the peace negotiations with the armed wing of the Communist Party. Under a “state of lawlessness” the military assists the police in policing.
As several commentators have noted Duterte’s “war on drugs” is very popular as, indeed, in the early 2000s was Thaksin’s similar “war” in Thailand with approval ratings in the 80%. We now know that at least half of the 2 000 or so Thai victims had nothing to do with the drug trade. Also as in the Philippines today the vast majority of the victims were from the poorest sections of society.
Like George W. Bush’s “war on terror” how do you know when the enemy is defeated? Who signs the armistice? Obviously no one. It will be up to Duterte to declares “victory” at a moment that is convenient for him, which I doubt will be soon. Duterte’s war can be seen as a monumental diversion obviating the need to deal with the chronic problems of Filipino society: poverty, gross inequality and corruption and nepotism amongst some of the powerful. It also draws attention away from his weak-kneed defense of Filipino national interests in relation to the PRC.
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Very good summary David,
The extrajudicial killings in Philppines and the bombings are primarily a domestic issue.
The ” weak kneed” attitude in gifting Philippines position in the South China Sea is an International issue of great magnitude. My Chinese friends tell me they stimate the Chinese military to take out the Philippine military in 48 hours. As true as that may be it would give Philippines Allies time to respond and get involved. Now that won’t be necessary as Duterte has stated ” We ain’t going to fight!”
Of further concern is his unprecedented refusal to meet the head of United Nations, unprecedented.
He only has one thing that we must acknowledge he does what he says unlike most world leaders. But it will still end in disaster as did Thaksin’s war on drugs.
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Neptunium the atomic attacks could be justified as Christian under the Augustinian Christian argument of a “just war”.
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That is exactly the kind of arguements the islamic guys are using – a just war –
All the bombings etc etc are not terrorist acts, just a “just war”.
I stand by what I said. When you bring God or Allah into the picture, you can justify anything. I will change my mind when I hear a big booming voice from the heavens that goes ” stop this killings or I will wipe out the earth and start all over….”
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Duterte is a dictator above the laws. It’s another Venezuela in the making….
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Congratulation to Philippines,
R.I.P. Restituto Castro is a victim of dictator Duterte.
Duterte was a gangster head of Davao Death Squad.
In PDP Laban party meeting Duterte spoke in Tagalog, “Gusto kong tawagan, ‘Pope putang ina ka, umuwi ka na. ‘Wag ka nang magbisita dito.
In 2016, 27 years after the 1989 Davao hostage crisis incident, Duterte made remarks in one of his campaign rallies relating to the 1989 hostage crisis and the raping of the Australian missionary. Duterte made the controversial joke on April 12, when he talked to a crowd about Australian missionary Jacqueline Hamill who had been kidnapped, raped and killed in 1989 and said, “She was so beautiful. I thought, the mayor should have been first. (Duterte was Davao’s mayor).
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A lot of folks refer to the law.
Ferdinand Marcos was asked by an aid whether a proposal was lawful.
” Ako ang Kautusan” he replied. Marcos is the law.
Duterte is a continuation of the idea of the leader being the law itself.
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Duterte should shoot himself because I have this strong suspicion that he is very high on drugs: “Philippines leader likens himself to Hitler, wants to kill millions of drug users.” (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-hitler-idUSKCN1200B9?il=0)
There is no other way to explain why he thinks he should it is a very good idea to kill three million Filipino addicts.
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