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As poor Thais learn more about their rights, demand greater transparency and exhibit less tolerance for privilege-based behavior and extraconstitutional interference in government by the army and other quarters in the elite, the pressure to reconcile the needs of different sections of Thai society will increase.
That tipping point may yet be some years off. Yet the elite would do well to acknowledge its imminent arrival and prepare itself. If it faces up to this reality, there is still time to shape the outcome and secure a role — albeit a diminished one — for itself.
– Extracted from Colum Murphy, “Populism Erodes Thailand’s Old Order”, The Wall Street Journal, 5 June 2009.
Based on the rumor going around today it may not be that far off…certainly not a few years. I do think though that the population is trained (manipulated) well enough that power structure will remain as-is. Populations are easily manipulated.
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An intersting article that basically seems pretty much spot on although I would argue the red shirts not courting the elite is incorrect. They certainly are very heavily linked to local upcountry elites who are very much part of the power struggle.
That aside yes change is coming. The current war is maybe more about who gets to oversee and potentially control it.
It will be interesting to see if the interests of the poor do end up going anywhere as right now they are directed by sides involved without much control themselves. As with all change it will be more about where does it end up. After the tipping point is reached where will the next balance be found? We also shouldnt forget that there are some very meglomaniacal people involved on all sides who have their own agendas and are very good at manipulating others for their ends.
Interesting times.
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