I was interviewed on ABC Radio’s World Today earlier this afternoon about the situation in Bangkok. Here is the sound file. (Higher quality of the full show available here.) In brief, I put the following views:
- The red shirts are in a stronger position now than they were before Saturday.
- The crisis cannot be resolved by force. Abhisit will have to negotiate.
- The army “won’t have the stomach” to attempt another crackdown and impose even more casualties.
- The constitution remains a problem, because it could easily be used to undo the results of the election.
- Perhaps an election in July or August, but it is not clear if the result would be accepted.
- The king is not a mediating factor. Apart from his health, the palace’s symbolic power has been clearly aligned with the “yellow” side.
- If the current confrontation is not resolved, there is a danger that it will spread outside Bangkok.
I am sure New Mandala readers will have many views on one or more of the above.
And, for balance, here is Professor Carl Trocki on ABC Breakfast this morning.