The Kachin are fighting for home and hearth like Charles F said earlier. They’ve made use of the ceasefire years gainfully like the Wa too (an opportunity the Karen denied to themselves rightly or wrongly), and are better trained, equipped and prepared for the fight this time round.
Nonetheless it is difficult to envisage these numbers unless the Tatmadaw has used human wave tactics like the Wa did in the 80s under the CPB commanders when the northeastern front for the Tatmadaw was almost like the Russian front for the Germans in WWII with govt troops taking very heavy casualties. Even with the news blackout as far as govt casualties are concerned, word tends to filter out from friends and families. The congenial Burmese in the main are not in the habit of keeping secrets.
Hla Oo’s input here as a veteran of the KIA war in the past would be much appreciated.
All of this coverage of the Myitsone cancellation detracts from the many other projects going on, like the Chinese funded and built Tasang Dam on the Salween, which, to my understanding, is bigger and will displace more people than Myitsone. Furthermore, just because Myitsone has been cancelled, doesn’t mean the five other -huge- hydropower projects further upstream on the Ayerwaddy have been. Myitsone’s cancellation is soft serve ice cream. Eat it up! Little has changed in the big picture. The Ayerwaddy is still going to die, they’re just not going to take out its heart at Myitsone. They’ll just take its intestine, liver, kidneys, lungs and stomach at Renam, Kaunglanhpu, Hpizaw, Chipwi and Laza. The vacillations of elites’ whims, which ultimately determine decisions in Southeast Asian resource politics, will carry on. Maybe Chinese developers are much better at dealing with elites’ vacillations than other donors. Good, or bad, it’s more productive to yell at a wall than get in a huff over it.
It would be interesting if Chinese investment in Myanmar was forced to be more transparent by the Myanmar government rather than its own.
It would say something about accountability of Chinese FDI in this moment of massive expansion internationally.
“China and Myanmar are friendly neighbors…” Yes, friendly, except for those times when China tried to expand into Burma (1765-69) or incite a cultural revolution amongst Burmese Chinese (late 60s) or support armed insurgents against the central government (CPB until 1989)…
“…Indonesian migrants were brought in either directly by the British colonial administrators or commercial agents as part of their plans to exploit the economy of the various Malay states during the 19th and early 20th centuries.”
Pls enlighten me. i never read this in our history before. since when??
Doug olthof, I also noticed how focus on the southern provinces conflict quickly led the discussion away from actually covering religious issues in Thailand. Religion in Thailand is of course too broad a topic to cover in general, so I think choosing a focus like the southern conflict wasn’t a bad idea. I would have liked to hear more discussion of religious issues pertinent to the topic though. Expanding on Ms. Daungyewa’s comment about religious education in the schools would have been interesting, and I also would have liked to hear about topics such as the relationships between resident army units and Buddhist wats in the the south.
I do of course very much appreciate Dr. Farrelly et al for producing the discussion and making it available to us online, and I’m looking forward to the next installment.
Moe Aung is correct in stating that even with a kill ratio of 10:1 the SPDC will still win.
I read one article that stated that the KNLA was killing SPDC troops at a ratio of 25:1 and perhaps as many as 35:1. I was told on separate occasions by two different KNLA colonels that the SPDC was taking incredible losses, but continued to advance. They know that the numbers are on their side.
The KNLA has perhaps five thousand troops, not all of which are in the field at one time. They don’t have the weapons and ammo to field all of their forces at one time.
As far as the SPDC goes, I believe that it was Stalin who said that “quantity has a quality all its own”, and that’s what we’re seeing here.
As an aside, the Karenni Army has just over 1500 men. They’re pretty much pinned against the border, and the SPDC is content to let them sit in their mountaintop camps.
Any large engagements will between the SPDC and the Kachin or the Shan State Army – both groups can mobilize large numbers of well equipped troops.
I find it strange that Nik Nazmi won’t even touch on the recent Hudud law propose by PAS while DAP sternly denying it will ever happen. Yes there are hope for Malaysia by Pakatan but only if Pakatan agrees to dismantle all those 3 parties and unite as 1 party under 1 leader. The way I see it it’s like 3 parties joining together just for the sake of the votes. No real manifesto, no one coherent vision, no really once voice that speaks for the party and for the people. It’s just 3 people trying to be who’s boss.
On the floods… I think that Ayutthaya and Lop Buri have consciously been sacrificed in an effort to save Bangkok, and that the capital city is becoming a greater and greater liability to Thailand everyday in terms of wasted capital expenditures financial and otherwise, such as these. And, oh yeah… it’s the environment stupid! The MSM still have not got the story : this is not some ‘weird’ aberration, this is the new ‘normal’ and is the number 1 issue to be dealt with.
On the hacking of Khun Pu’s account… note that the poor script kiddie was set up to take the fall. The person who hacked or, more likely, ‘socially engineered’ her/his way to Khun Pu’s password delivered the results to the poor young suckers to actually use, and to violate the monstrous law in doing so. Hacking the password and disseminating the results are not illegal.
As for the Seven Samurai at Nitirat… all I can say is they are jolly brave fellows and that nobody can deny! In these times of raging waters they have been able to bridge the lawless torrent raging these past five years in Thailand, now separating the present elected Thai government from the last, and their solution must be realized. They are 100% correct, in my view.
That’s right. And everyone in the Kachin State that I have ever asked continues to conjure up those World War II ratios to clarify Kachin martial prowess. I wonder if the legend of those ancestral Kachin warriors infuses the approach to reporting combat taken by the KIA today. If today’s fighters couldn’t match their forebears then there would be questions.
As for the New Light, my two summaries of coverage (here and here) are probably the easiest places to start.
In the past few days we have also seen:
Mine planter killed while activating the mine in Myitkyina
NAY PYI TAW, 3 Oct-An explosion occurred near the fence of staff quarter in Myitkyina of Kachin State yesterday night, killing a male stranger.
Due to the sound of blast that turned out near the fence of staff quarter in Thida lane, Thida Ward of Myitkyina at about 7.55 pm, a team led by the head of Kachin State police force rushed to the scene where a stranger aged about 30 and assumed to be an insurgent was found dead.
According to findings in the immediate vicinity, the mine went off while the man was activating it and he who was trying to cause public causalities and panic with villainous desire was killed. The case is under investigation to expose further details.
International Day of Older Persons, MPF Day observed in Kachin State
NAY PYI TAW, 2 Oct-The International Day of Older Persons of Kachin State was observed at Sasana Beikman in Myitkyina yesterday.
Kachin State Chief Minister U La John Ngan Hsai and the speaker of Kachin State Hluttaw presented gifts to older persons.
The Chief Minister attended the 47th Anniversary of Myanmar Police Force at the town hall in Myitkyina.
Commander of Kachin State Police Force Police Col Myint Lwin read the message sent by the MPF Chief. Later, the Chief Minister, the Speaker of Kachin State Hluttaw, the Kachin State Chief Justice, the Kachin State Security and Border Affairs Minister, the State Advocate-General and the Commander of Kachin State Police Force presented prizes to outstanding police members.
Innocent Kachin woman killed in gun fire of KIA in Sadon Sub-Township
NAY PYI TAW, 25 Sept-KIA group opened fire with small arms and threw grenade at Sadon market in Sadon Sub- Township of Waingmaw Township, Kachin State, at about 3 am on 22 September. In the scene, Daw Ma Shi Kawt, 43, (daughter of U Phaung Mya Labyin) of Ward 5 in Sadon Sub- Township was injured at the body below the armpit by the gunshot and while receiving medical treatment at the hospital, she died of the wound in the afternoon.
Not only local national races in Kachin State but also all the people in the entire nation hope KIA group to return to the legal fold to join hands with the local people for serving the interests of the Kachin State and the Union and they do not want it to commit the destructive acts such as committing mines attacks to destroy roads, forced recruitment in villages at gunpoint, collection of extortion money, disrupting State’s projects, killing one another and planting mines at areas frequented by people.
In WWII the Kachins killed 25 Japanese for every one casualty they suffered. These reports seem to beat even that number and are pretty hard to believe. I think a more pertinent question is how is the fighting being reported on the Burmese side? I don’t expect any casualty figures for the army, but surely there has to be some reports in the New Light of Myanmar of rebels seeing the light and returning to the legal fold.
Today’s report from the frontlines in the northern Shan State once again details a KIA ambush of Burmese troops. While no figures are included, it does give a sense of the style of combat that the KIA is pursuing. And, according to such reports, they seem to be doing their utmost to minimise their own losses. In the context of these recent insights the ongoing reporting from the KIA will need our continued attention.
I can certainly see that many of those killed in combat would be either left on the battlefield (due to the danger of retrieving bodies) or hastily cremated nearby. Moe Aung, it would be interesting to know more about how this is managed. In Thailand, at least, there are now very heavily codified ways of handling the bodies of those killed in combat. The level of care taken tends to increase with the rank of the deceased.
Perhaps some of our readers with good tatmadaw connections can offer pointers on exactly how these matters are dealt with. It would be especially interesting to hear about any differences in the treatment of officers who are killed on the frontlines.
I agree the statistics stretches credulity even if it’s true. Reminds me of the late KIO chairman Brang Seng, the former headmaster, who apparently did the math and came up with this argument in favour of peace talks thus in 1980 – say even if one Kachin managed to kill ten Burmese, when all the Kachins died fighting there would still be 20 million Burmese left.
Dry season military campaigns are customary for obvious reasons in a climate governed by the monsoons. When they reckon they’ve dealt adequately with the Kachin, the generals will turn on the Wa, more likely if the current upset over the Myitsone Dam triggers a genuine fallout between Beijing and Naypyidaw, better still if they succeed in wooing the West.
As for the Burmese dead, whilst cremation is customary for violent deaths, Buddhist tradition discourages any attachment to the physical remains and funeral rites can take place without any. Wherever possible cremation may take place on the spot and the ashes will be returned to the family.
Interesting that a panel discussion on religion in Thailand should focus exclusively on an issue in which ( in my view anyway) religion plays only secondary role. Nevertheless, it is obviously a topic worthy of sustained focus. I have to say that Professor Ball’s final comments almost rescued the conversation from the tendency to assume that all or even most of the parties involved want the conflict to end. The conflict takes on an altogether different meaning when the material interests of various parties in sustained violence and instability is taken into account.
Many thanks for producing this series. I look forward to the final installment.
Demonize the unpopular side with a deserving “less than Human” existence, in Intelligence, passion etc.
All the brothers within are dying from fighting for the left over scraps because of “The west useless careless policy”.
And here you are describing the ugliness of the present quagmire as though do not contribute to.
Nic
In the coming dry season the inevitable 4 cuts strategy will be employed by this government.
the questions should be:
What are the historical facts on Bamar and Kachin/any ethnic contentions?
How has the policy of the west contributed to the continuation of ethnic strives within Myanmar?
How come no UN effort what so ever to mediate any of these unnecessary blood letting yet plenty peanut gallery posters as well as HRW making hay out of the tragedy?
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One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
The Kachin are fighting for home and hearth like Charles F said earlier. They’ve made use of the ceasefire years gainfully like the Wa too (an opportunity the Karen denied to themselves rightly or wrongly), and are better trained, equipped and prepared for the fight this time round.
Nonetheless it is difficult to envisage these numbers unless the Tatmadaw has used human wave tactics like the Wa did in the 80s under the CPB commanders when the northeastern front for the Tatmadaw was almost like the Russian front for the Germans in WWII with govt troops taking very heavy casualties. Even with the news blackout as far as govt casualties are concerned, word tends to filter out from friends and families. The congenial Burmese in the main are not in the habit of keeping secrets.
Hla Oo’s input here as a veteran of the KIA war in the past would be much appreciated.
Infinite feeling: Sino-Burmese relations
All of this coverage of the Myitsone cancellation detracts from the many other projects going on, like the Chinese funded and built Tasang Dam on the Salween, which, to my understanding, is bigger and will displace more people than Myitsone. Furthermore, just because Myitsone has been cancelled, doesn’t mean the five other -huge- hydropower projects further upstream on the Ayerwaddy have been. Myitsone’s cancellation is soft serve ice cream. Eat it up! Little has changed in the big picture. The Ayerwaddy is still going to die, they’re just not going to take out its heart at Myitsone. They’ll just take its intestine, liver, kidneys, lungs and stomach at Renam, Kaunglanhpu, Hpizaw, Chipwi and Laza. The vacillations of elites’ whims, which ultimately determine decisions in Southeast Asian resource politics, will carry on. Maybe Chinese developers are much better at dealing with elites’ vacillations than other donors. Good, or bad, it’s more productive to yell at a wall than get in a huff over it.
But, as ever,
Sabai sabai!
Infinite feeling: Sino-Burmese relations
It would be interesting if Chinese investment in Myanmar was forced to be more transparent by the Myanmar government rather than its own.
It would say something about accountability of Chinese FDI in this moment of massive expansion internationally.
Infinite feeling: Sino-Burmese relations
“China and Myanmar are friendly neighbors…” Yes, friendly, except for those times when China tried to expand into Burma (1765-69) or incite a cultural revolution amongst Burmese Chinese (late 60s) or support armed insurgents against the central government (CPB until 1989)…
Moving forward from racial tensions in Malaysia
“…Indonesian migrants were brought in either directly by the British colonial administrators or commercial agents as part of their plans to exploit the economy of the various Malay states during the 19th and early 20th centuries.”
Pls enlighten me. i never read this in our history before. since when??
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 2
Doug olthof, I also noticed how focus on the southern provinces conflict quickly led the discussion away from actually covering religious issues in Thailand. Religion in Thailand is of course too broad a topic to cover in general, so I think choosing a focus like the southern conflict wasn’t a bad idea. I would have liked to hear more discussion of religious issues pertinent to the topic though. Expanding on Ms. Daungyewa’s comment about religious education in the schools would have been interesting, and I also would have liked to hear about topics such as the relationships between resident army units and Buddhist wats in the the south.
I do of course very much appreciate Dr. Farrelly et al for producing the discussion and making it available to us online, and I’m looking forward to the next installment.
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
A perceptive Thai perspective on the flooding can be found on Thai Intelligence News.
It is called Natural Disaster: Blame severe Thai flooding on Abhisit’s Bangkok-Centric US$44 billion stimulus failure
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
Moe Aung is correct in stating that even with a kill ratio of 10:1 the SPDC will still win.
I read one article that stated that the KNLA was killing SPDC troops at a ratio of 25:1 and perhaps as many as 35:1. I was told on separate occasions by two different KNLA colonels that the SPDC was taking incredible losses, but continued to advance. They know that the numbers are on their side.
The KNLA has perhaps five thousand troops, not all of which are in the field at one time. They don’t have the weapons and ammo to field all of their forces at one time.
As far as the SPDC goes, I believe that it was Stalin who said that “quantity has a quality all its own”, and that’s what we’re seeing here.
As an aside, the Karenni Army has just over 1500 men. They’re pretty much pinned against the border, and the SPDC is content to let them sit in their mountaintop camps.
Any large engagements will between the SPDC and the Kachin or the Shan State Army – both groups can mobilize large numbers of well equipped troops.
Moving forward from racial tensions in Malaysia
I find it strange that Nik Nazmi won’t even touch on the recent Hudud law propose by PAS while DAP sternly denying it will ever happen. Yes there are hope for Malaysia by Pakatan but only if Pakatan agrees to dismantle all those 3 parties and unite as 1 party under 1 leader. The way I see it it’s like 3 parties joining together just for the sake of the votes. No real manifesto, no one coherent vision, no really once voice that speaks for the party and for the people. It’s just 3 people trying to be who’s boss.
Floods, hacks and the Nitirat effect
On the floods… I think that Ayutthaya and Lop Buri have consciously been sacrificed in an effort to save Bangkok, and that the capital city is becoming a greater and greater liability to Thailand everyday in terms of wasted capital expenditures financial and otherwise, such as these. And, oh yeah… it’s the environment stupid! The MSM still have not got the story : this is not some ‘weird’ aberration, this is the new ‘normal’ and is the number 1 issue to be dealt with.
On the hacking of Khun Pu’s account… note that the poor script kiddie was set up to take the fall. The person who hacked or, more likely, ‘socially engineered’ her/his way to Khun Pu’s password delivered the results to the poor young suckers to actually use, and to violate the monstrous law in doing so. Hacking the password and disseminating the results are not illegal.
As for the Seven Samurai at Nitirat… all I can say is they are jolly brave fellows and that nobody can deny! In these times of raging waters they have been able to bridge the lawless torrent raging these past five years in Thailand, now separating the present elected Thai government from the last, and their solution must be realized. They are 100% correct, in my view.
The Republic of Kawthoolei and Thomas Bleming
Dan Knudson, that film has already been made. ‘Tropic Thunder’ with Ben Stiller.
Moving forward from racial tensions in Malaysia
Please define indigenous Malays ?
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
Thanks Aiontay,
That’s right. And everyone in the Kachin State that I have ever asked continues to conjure up those World War II ratios to clarify Kachin martial prowess. I wonder if the legend of those ancestral Kachin warriors infuses the approach to reporting combat taken by the KIA today. If today’s fighters couldn’t match their forebears then there would be questions.
As for the New Light, my two summaries of coverage (here and here) are probably the easiest places to start.
In the past few days we have also seen:
Mine planter killed while activating the mine in Myitkyina
NAY PYI TAW, 3 Oct-An explosion occurred near the fence of staff quarter in Myitkyina of Kachin State yesterday night, killing a male stranger.
Due to the sound of blast that turned out near the fence of staff quarter in Thida lane, Thida Ward of Myitkyina at about 7.55 pm, a team led by the head of Kachin State police force rushed to the scene where a stranger aged about 30 and assumed to be an insurgent was found dead.
According to findings in the immediate vicinity, the mine went off while the man was activating it and he who was trying to cause public causalities and panic with villainous desire was killed. The case is under investigation to expose further details.
International Day of Older Persons, MPF Day observed in Kachin State
NAY PYI TAW, 2 Oct-The International Day of Older Persons of Kachin State was observed at Sasana Beikman in Myitkyina yesterday.
Kachin State Chief Minister U La John Ngan Hsai and the speaker of Kachin State Hluttaw presented gifts to older persons.
The Chief Minister attended the 47th Anniversary of Myanmar Police Force at the town hall in Myitkyina.
Commander of Kachin State Police Force Police Col Myint Lwin read the message sent by the MPF Chief. Later, the Chief Minister, the Speaker of Kachin State Hluttaw, the Kachin State Chief Justice, the Kachin State Security and Border Affairs Minister, the State Advocate-General and the Commander of Kachin State Police Force presented prizes to outstanding police members.
Innocent Kachin woman killed in gun fire of KIA in Sadon Sub-Township
NAY PYI TAW, 25 Sept-KIA group opened fire with small arms and threw grenade at Sadon market in Sadon Sub- Township of Waingmaw Township, Kachin State, at about 3 am on 22 September. In the scene, Daw Ma Shi Kawt, 43, (daughter of U Phaung Mya Labyin) of Ward 5 in Sadon Sub- Township was injured at the body below the armpit by the gunshot and while receiving medical treatment at the hospital, she died of the wound in the afternoon.
Not only local national races in Kachin State but also all the people in the entire nation hope KIA group to return to the legal fold to join hands with the local people for serving the interests of the Kachin State and the Union and they do not want it to commit the destructive acts such as committing mines attacks to destroy roads, forced recruitment in villages at gunpoint, collection of extortion money, disrupting State’s projects, killing one another and planting mines at areas frequented by people.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
In WWII the Kachins killed 25 Japanese for every one casualty they suffered. These reports seem to beat even that number and are pretty hard to believe. I think a more pertinent question is how is the fighting being reported on the Burmese side? I don’t expect any casualty figures for the army, but surely there has to be some reports in the New Light of Myanmar of rebels seeing the light and returning to the legal fold.
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
For those interested:
Today’s report from the frontlines in the northern Shan State once again details a KIA ambush of Burmese troops. While no figures are included, it does give a sense of the style of combat that the KIA is pursuing. And, according to such reports, they seem to be doing their utmost to minimise their own losses. In the context of these recent insights the ongoing reporting from the KIA will need our continued attention.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
Nich,
Hope Hla Oo can help in this matter. He has himself seen action against the KIA in the 80s. I’d like to hear what he has to say.
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
Thanks Moe Aung,
I can certainly see that many of those killed in combat would be either left on the battlefield (due to the danger of retrieving bodies) or hastily cremated nearby. Moe Aung, it would be interesting to know more about how this is managed. In Thailand, at least, there are now very heavily codified ways of handling the bodies of those killed in combat. The level of care taken tends to increase with the rank of the deceased.
Perhaps some of our readers with good tatmadaw connections can offer pointers on exactly how these matters are dealt with. It would be especially interesting to hear about any differences in the treatment of officers who are killed on the frontlines.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
Nich,
I agree the statistics stretches credulity even if it’s true. Reminds me of the late KIO chairman Brang Seng, the former headmaster, who apparently did the math and came up with this argument in favour of peace talks thus in 1980 – say even if one Kachin managed to kill ten Burmese, when all the Kachins died fighting there would still be 20 million Burmese left.
Dry season military campaigns are customary for obvious reasons in a climate governed by the monsoons. When they reckon they’ve dealt adequately with the Kachin, the generals will turn on the Wa, more likely if the current upset over the Myitsone Dam triggers a genuine fallout between Beijing and Naypyidaw, better still if they succeed in wooing the West.
As for the Burmese dead, whilst cremation is customary for violent deaths, Buddhist tradition discourages any attachment to the physical remains and funeral rites can take place without any. Wherever possible cremation may take place on the spot and the ashes will be returned to the family.
Nation, Religion, King – Episode 2
Interesting that a panel discussion on religion in Thailand should focus exclusively on an issue in which ( in my view anyway) religion plays only secondary role. Nevertheless, it is obviously a topic worthy of sustained focus. I have to say that Professor Ball’s final comments almost rescued the conversation from the tendency to assume that all or even most of the parties involved want the conflict to end. The conflict takes on an altogether different meaning when the material interests of various parties in sustained violence and instability is taken into account.
Many thanks for producing this series. I look forward to the final installment.
One observation, ten questions and much to ponder about the new Kachin war
@ #1
Demonize the unpopular side with a deserving “less than Human” existence, in Intelligence, passion etc.
All the brothers within are dying from fighting for the left over scraps because of “The west useless careless policy”.
And here you are describing the ugliness of the present quagmire as though do not contribute to.
Nic
In the coming dry season the inevitable 4 cuts strategy will be employed by this government.
the questions should be:
What are the historical facts on Bamar and Kachin/any ethnic contentions?
How has the policy of the west contributed to the continuation of ethnic strives within Myanmar?
How come no UN effort what so ever to mediate any of these unnecessary blood letting yet plenty peanut gallery posters as well as HRW making hay out of the tragedy?