Not just in Bangkok, I suspect. In a way, this switch to “how to vote” (for “us”, of course) is very useful for PT. It refreshes the campaign in a relatively neutral way – it almost looks like “public service”. No counter-attack on the Dems nor even anything that bothers to respond to their negative onslaught. Instead, a simple (and necessary) counter to the….. well, let’s settle for calling it [cough] “unfortunate” design of the ballot paper.
Those so-minded will no doubt see it as implicitly saying “Here’s yet another in the establishment’s long history of dirty tricks – and this is how you defeat it”. That works too.
More than 100 people arrested by Police for “encouraging” people to participate in the Bersih walk.
Ibrahim Ali of Perkasa who declared war on Bersih and threatened to spill Malaysian Chinese blood is walking around getting press time instead of getting arrested.
The Western press and govt are giving this series of events a wide berth. I guess Malaysia is just not interesting enough… maybe not enough bloodshed? or Has the developed nation bought the “moderate muslim” equality crap expounded by Najib?
By coincidence (you’ll have to take my word for this), the first thing I see after posting my earlier comment is Bangkok Pundit’s latest blog – engagingly titled “Why the Democrats will lose the Thai election” (http://asiancorrespondent.com/58539/why-the-democrats-will-lose-the-election/). He likewise focuses on the cost-of-living as the key factor.
He also draws attention to the Dems’ notably poor connection/communication with the mass of the people – each of whom whom has an equal vote. Sure Prem, Prayuth & Co have and exercise control over vastly more than one vote each – but the basic principle stands.
When “HIOGAT” (“He is only good at talking” – rather than doing) sticks so well to Abhisit and what he says doesn’t even register with the broad mass of voters – then you have a truly lethal combination…..
I daresay that some of what’s described are factors in the Suan Dusit poll results. Worth noting however that their pollsters also pressed “undecideds” they encountered to say which way they were likely to vote – the s0-called “leaners”.
But there’s another factor potentially at play here. In the ’90s in the UK, opinion polling proved spectacularly misleading in terms of reporting anti-Conservative and to an extent pro-Labour sentiment. I forget whether it was still Thatcher or Major as PM by then – but anyway late in the extended period of Conservative governments. By that point, the Conservatives were laughably unpopular and it took a brave soul to admit their intention to vote for them; so, many of those polled simply didn’t admit it to the pollsters. Yet, probably mainly because of misgivings about the Labour alternative, in the privacy of the polling booth they did vote Conservative – and in large numbers.
How much relevance this factor has to the current Thai situation depends on a] the level of comparable perceived Dem unpopularity and b] the level of comparable misgivings about PT. I think a] is fairly well present and has generally been climbing in successive polls (unpopularity, remember) – creating a cumulative/bandwagon effect that feeds on itself.
Plainly, after an at best token effort to promote themselves positively, the Dem tactic soon switched to an almost entirely negative assault on what they portray as “PT-but-really-red-shirt” – i.e. to create b].
Very unlikely that it’ll work well enough to turn the tide – but I do expect that the actual voting will be substantially less anti-Dem/pro-PT than the polls have been indicating. But, for all the Dem focus on fear-mongering about red-shirts and latterly “amnesty for one billionaire”, it looks (to me) likely that perceptions of how less well-off most people are now compared to the Thaksin years will prove far more influential. Yes, yet again it’s that well-worn cliche “It’s the economy, stupid” combined with a perception that Thaksin delivered most of what he promised – something not obvious about the Dem-led administration. That more of the same in terms of non-reconciliation (therefore more and worse protest trouble) seems assured with a Dem-led government looks to me to be a close second factor.
Way down the list of factors come the general policies. The predictable bidding war of who might provide most to most will have left many voters at best promise-weary and more likely promise-cynical. With that in mind, we’re back to Thaksin’s perceived record of delivery counting far more than the quality/range comparison of Dem vs PT platforms.
The Krom Thahan Mahat Lek, meaning Royal Pages Regiment, was raised in 1887 when the Thai Army Officer Cadet School was established. It was organized and equipped along modern European lines as a training unit to instruct Thai officers, most of them members of the nobility, in Western military technology and tactics, and to give them experience of service in a modern regiment. It was disbanded after a satisfactory level of Western-style military professionalism had been achieved by the army as a whole.
The unit was reformed as part of the 1st Infantry Division after the Crown Prince returned to Thailand after military training in Australia to give him something to command.
Both the 1st and 2nd Infantry Divisions are formally titled “Raksa Phra Ong”, meaning “Royal Guards”. There is nothing in their Thai titles that means “King’s Guards” or “Queen’s Guards”.
The 1st Infantry Division is informally known as the Wong Thewan, meaning the Celestial Circle, because of the physical proximity of its HQ to Chitralada Palace and the fact that most (but not all) senior army commanders rise through its ranks.
The 2nd Infantry Division is informally known as the Burapha Phayak, meaning the Eastern Tigers, because its HQ is located east of Bangkok at Wattana Nakhorn, and its officers and men see themselves as Tigers (i.e. real combat soldiers) and not just palace guards occupying cushy billets in the capital.
At present the Burapha Phayak occupy all key command appointments in the army. If I were Thaksin, I’d be cultivating supporters within the Wong Thewan.
I suggest Andrew M up the ante by posting the story in parts as sequential Notes on a personal Facebook page (or public interest page).
Forcing the MICT to go against Facebook would cause them new problems. They can’t block all of it and I don’t think FB will cave like YouTube and agree to block specific pages.
Yes, if you look at the new PT posters in Bangkok they are full of instructions about how to check the box correctly. They’re taking no risks of a 2000 Florida-type fiasco.
I think the problem has been neutralized, and won’t be a factor.
If only the army could be so easily neutralized with educational posters.
My wife tells me that PT are spending a lot of time explaining the ballots to people to help prevent mistakes at the polls. She also says that she has not heard of voting money being offered here, this is her hometown and she knows almost everyone.
I also have not seen any vandalized campaign posters except for the one for 14 where the 4 was cut out and only a 1 showed. That is on the highway between Chiang Dao and Chiang Mai in Mae Rim District. There are also probably 4 times as many democrat posters as all the others added together.
I doubt that there are that many undecided voters.
Have a look at the Suan Dusit poll, 4-18 June. This was not only the largest poll (over 100’000 respondents) and the one with the lowest numbers of undecided voters (around 2%). The main difference of that poll was that it was the only poll conducted face to face with potential voters and not over the phone like all other polls. People are much more willing to trust a harmless student face to face than trusting an unknown person on the phone who could even be an army guy collecting information on the “enemy”.
In a general climate of intimidation and fear people are reluctant to reveal to strangers on the phone that they are intending to vote for the opposition Puea Thai and show sympathy towards the redshirts. Some supporters of the Democrats may even fall for the scaremongering and might be afraid of revenge by redshirts if they reveal their intention to an unknown pollster on the phone who in their fantasy might even be a redshirt scout.
However I believe that the majority of these pretending-to-be-undecided voters could be supporters of the redshirts.
and bringing to his attention the charges against Mr. Gordon.
Then he said that ” the US Embassy is providing Mr Gordon with all of their available resources.”
I hope that is true.
At least Senator Udall has made inquires on the matter.
I also hope that Mr Gordon is able to get his medications for high blood pressure and gout in order to prevent damage to his kidneys and possibly a stroke. Does anyone have any information on this?
Mr Gordon has now been incarcerated for one month.
[…] government’s narrative (see our earlier post on the subject, as well as an article published on New Mandala post). Aside from describing military strategy, the article references “Information Operations” […]
So did the EC deliberately screw it up or did some dimwit at PTP just give them an inappropriate logo for this particular task ?
Of course a wide logo will not print clearly in a horizontally confined space. But a lot of people won’t think of that, and I doubt that any party would have been invited to view the proofs.
Yes, whoever *was* responsible for managing the print job at the EC has done an awful job, but this sort of quality is (sorry but its true) kind of typical.
Well who knows what to make of this.You can’t trust a single word from this military/goverment.Who can trust a single word they write down either ?Written AFTER they had butchered scores of “innocent”…..We have heared it all before,i.e.:”The most important principle is to protect and save lives of the innocent.” they say,AFTER the body count reveals most deaths were “innocent”.How many more “We did not fire cluster bombs” “Soldiers only fired in self defence” ect ect…have we got to put up with ? god it’s sickening….I won’t go on. They seem to take credit for the death of Sae Daeng which they say contributed to a sucessful operation.But deny killing him publicly,or even revealing to the reconcilliation panels how or who done this. Pathetic.
I’m guessing that the rally for Yingluck is taking place at a school or vocational college, but which province is it in? Am I wrong in guessing that it is somewhere in the Northeast? I am pretty sure it’s not near Bangkok, because the weather looks too nice!
Moral: If you train your populace to give mindless, unquestioning,unjustified adoration, they can switch that mindless, unquestioning,unjustified adoration to someone else at the drop of a hat.
It reminds me why enlightenment is actually a useful adjunct to governance, as well as an intellectual triumph.
Can anybody explain how ballot paper order is determined in Thailand? Is it randomised as in e.g. Australia ? Surely if there was a conspiracy going on at the EC they would not choose to put PT up top in position 1 ? I think I’m voting for standard incompetence in this instance.
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Almost no logo
c14
Not just in Bangkok, I suspect. In a way, this switch to “how to vote” (for “us”, of course) is very useful for PT. It refreshes the campaign in a relatively neutral way – it almost looks like “public service”. No counter-attack on the Dems nor even anything that bothers to respond to their negative onslaught. Instead, a simple (and necessary) counter to the….. well, let’s settle for calling it [cough] “unfortunate” design of the ballot paper.
Those so-minded will no doubt see it as implicitly saying “Here’s yet another in the establishment’s long history of dirty tricks – and this is how you defeat it”. That works too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HufHjj3_O74&feature=related
Malaysia: Yellow is the new Black
More than 100 people arrested by Police for “encouraging” people to participate in the Bersih walk.
Ibrahim Ali of Perkasa who declared war on Bersih and threatened to spill Malaysian Chinese blood is walking around getting press time instead of getting arrested.
The Western press and govt are giving this series of events a wide berth. I guess Malaysia is just not interesting enough… maybe not enough bloodshed? or Has the developed nation bought the “moderate muslim” equality crap expounded by Najib?
Election countdown: polls and policies
By coincidence (you’ll have to take my word for this), the first thing I see after posting my earlier comment is Bangkok Pundit’s latest blog – engagingly titled “Why the Democrats will lose the Thai election” (http://asiancorrespondent.com/58539/why-the-democrats-will-lose-the-election/). He likewise focuses on the cost-of-living as the key factor.
He also draws attention to the Dems’ notably poor connection/communication with the mass of the people – each of whom whom has an equal vote. Sure Prem, Prayuth & Co have and exercise control over vastly more than one vote each – but the basic principle stands.
When “HIOGAT” (“He is only good at talking” – rather than doing) sticks so well to Abhisit and what he says doesn’t even register with the broad mass of voters – then you have a truly lethal combination…..
Election countdown: polls and policies
c1
I daresay that some of what’s described are factors in the Suan Dusit poll results. Worth noting however that their pollsters also pressed “undecideds” they encountered to say which way they were likely to vote – the s0-called “leaners”.
But there’s another factor potentially at play here. In the ’90s in the UK, opinion polling proved spectacularly misleading in terms of reporting anti-Conservative and to an extent pro-Labour sentiment. I forget whether it was still Thatcher or Major as PM by then – but anyway late in the extended period of Conservative governments. By that point, the Conservatives were laughably unpopular and it took a brave soul to admit their intention to vote for them; so, many of those polled simply didn’t admit it to the pollsters. Yet, probably mainly because of misgivings about the Labour alternative, in the privacy of the polling booth they did vote Conservative – and in large numbers.
How much relevance this factor has to the current Thai situation depends on a] the level of comparable perceived Dem unpopularity and b] the level of comparable misgivings about PT. I think a] is fairly well present and has generally been climbing in successive polls (unpopularity, remember) – creating a cumulative/bandwagon effect that feeds on itself.
Plainly, after an at best token effort to promote themselves positively, the Dem tactic soon switched to an almost entirely negative assault on what they portray as “PT-but-really-red-shirt” – i.e. to create b].
Very unlikely that it’ll work well enough to turn the tide – but I do expect that the actual voting will be substantially less anti-Dem/pro-PT than the polls have been indicating. But, for all the Dem focus on fear-mongering about red-shirts and latterly “amnesty for one billionaire”, it looks (to me) likely that perceptions of how less well-off most people are now compared to the Thaksin years will prove far more influential. Yes, yet again it’s that well-worn cliche “It’s the economy, stupid” combined with a perception that Thaksin delivered most of what he promised – something not obvious about the Dem-led administration. That more of the same in terms of non-reconciliation (therefore more and worse protest trouble) seems assured with a Dem-led government looks to me to be a close second factor.
Way down the list of factors come the general policies. The predictable bidding war of who might provide most to most will have left many voters at best promise-weary and more likely promise-cynical. With that in mind, we’re back to Thaksin’s perceived record of delivery counting far more than the quality/range comparison of Dem vs PT platforms.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
KA#70 and Tarrin#72:
The Krom Thahan Mahat Lek, meaning Royal Pages Regiment, was raised in 1887 when the Thai Army Officer Cadet School was established. It was organized and equipped along modern European lines as a training unit to instruct Thai officers, most of them members of the nobility, in Western military technology and tactics, and to give them experience of service in a modern regiment. It was disbanded after a satisfactory level of Western-style military professionalism had been achieved by the army as a whole.
The unit was reformed as part of the 1st Infantry Division after the Crown Prince returned to Thailand after military training in Australia to give him something to command.
Both the 1st and 2nd Infantry Divisions are formally titled “Raksa Phra Ong”, meaning “Royal Guards”. There is nothing in their Thai titles that means “King’s Guards” or “Queen’s Guards”.
The 1st Infantry Division is informally known as the Wong Thewan, meaning the Celestial Circle, because of the physical proximity of its HQ to Chitralada Palace and the fact that most (but not all) senior army commanders rise through its ranks.
The 2nd Infantry Division is informally known as the Burapha Phayak, meaning the Eastern Tigers, because its HQ is located east of Bangkok at Wattana Nakhorn, and its officers and men see themselves as Tigers (i.e. real combat soldiers) and not just palace guards occupying cushy billets in the capital.
At present the Burapha Phayak occupy all key command appointments in the army. If I were Thaksin, I’d be cultivating supporters within the Wong Thewan.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
The cat-and-mouse MICT game is well underway.
I suggest Andrew M up the ante by posting the story in parts as sequential Notes on a personal Facebook page (or public interest page).
Forcing the MICT to go against Facebook would cause them new problems. They can’t block all of it and I don’t think FB will cave like YouTube and agree to block specific pages.
Almost no logo
Yes, if you look at the new PT posters in Bangkok they are full of instructions about how to check the box correctly. They’re taking no risks of a 2000 Florida-type fiasco.
I think the problem has been neutralized, and won’t be a factor.
If only the army could be so easily neutralized with educational posters.
Almost no logo
My wife tells me that PT are spending a lot of time explaining the ballots to people to help prevent mistakes at the polls. She also says that she has not heard of voting money being offered here, this is her hometown and she knows almost everyone.
I also have not seen any vandalized campaign posters except for the one for 14 where the 4 was cut out and only a 1 showed. That is on the highway between Chiang Dao and Chiang Mai in Mae Rim District. There are also probably 4 times as many democrat posters as all the others added together.
Almost no logo
Pete S – 10
It is randomly picked.
Election countdown: polls and policies
I doubt that there are that many undecided voters.
Have a look at the Suan Dusit poll, 4-18 June. This was not only the largest poll (over 100’000 respondents) and the one with the lowest numbers of undecided voters (around 2%). The main difference of that poll was that it was the only poll conducted face to face with potential voters and not over the phone like all other polls. People are much more willing to trust a harmless student face to face than trusting an unknown person on the phone who could even be an army guy collecting information on the “enemy”.
In a general climate of intimidation and fear people are reluctant to reveal to strangers on the phone that they are intending to vote for the opposition Puea Thai and show sympathy towards the redshirts. Some supporters of the Democrats may even fall for the scaremongering and might be afraid of revenge by redshirts if they reveal their intention to an unknown pollster on the phone who in their fantasy might even be a redshirt scout.
However I believe that the majority of these pretending-to-be-undecided voters could be supporters of the redshirts.
FACT’s plea for Joe Gordon
I received an email response from my Senator, Mark Udall dated June 27.
http://www.markudall.senate.gov
He thanked me for writing him on this matter
and bringing to his attention the charges against Mr. Gordon.
Then he said that ” the US Embassy is providing Mr Gordon with all of their available resources.”
I hope that is true.
At least Senator Udall has made inquires on the matter.
I also hope that Mr Gordon is able to get his medications for high blood pressure and gout in order to prevent damage to his kidneys and possibly a stroke. Does anyone have any information on this?
Mr Gordon has now been incarcerated for one month.
The military strategy at Ratchaprasong
[…] government’s narrative (see our earlier post on the subject, as well as an article published on New Mandala post). Aside from describing military strategy, the article references “Information Operations” […]
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Re Richard H #58
as at June 28 both links are blocked in Thailand by the MICT
Almost no logo
So did the EC deliberately screw it up or did some dimwit at PTP just give them an inappropriate logo for this particular task ?
Of course a wide logo will not print clearly in a horizontally confined space. But a lot of people won’t think of that, and I doubt that any party would have been invited to view the proofs.
Yes, whoever *was* responsible for managing the print job at the EC has done an awful job, but this sort of quality is (sorry but its true) kind of typical.
The military strategy at Ratchaprasong
Well who knows what to make of this.You can’t trust a single word from this military/goverment.Who can trust a single word they write down either ?Written AFTER they had butchered scores of “innocent”…..We have heared it all before,i.e.:”The most important principle is to protect and save lives of the innocent.” they say,AFTER the body count reveals most deaths were “innocent”.How many more “We did not fire cluster bombs” “Soldiers only fired in self defence” ect ect…have we got to put up with ? god it’s sickening….I won’t go on. They seem to take credit for the death of Sae Daeng which they say contributed to a sucessful operation.But deny killing him publicly,or even revealing to the reconcilliation panels how or who done this. Pathetic.
เรารัก-ยิ่งลักษณ์
I’m guessing that the rally for Yingluck is taking place at a school or vocational college, but which province is it in? Am I wrong in guessing that it is somewhere in the Northeast? I am pretty sure it’s not near Bangkok, because the weather looks too nice!
เรารัก-ยิ่งลักษณ์
That is so brilliant.
Moral: If you train your populace to give mindless, unquestioning,unjustified adoration, they can switch that mindless, unquestioning,unjustified adoration to someone else at the drop of a hat.
It reminds me why enlightenment is actually a useful adjunct to governance, as well as an intellectual triumph.
เรารัก-ยิ่งลักษณ์
Boy would I love to see Abhisit’s reaction to this clip. Ever since I saw that dignified poster put up I knew she’d be dangerous.
Almost no logo
Can anybody explain how ballot paper order is determined in Thailand? Is it randomised as in e.g. Australia ? Surely if there was a conspiracy going on at the EC they would not choose to put PT up top in position 1 ? I think I’m voting for standard incompetence in this instance.
Democrat or democratic?
Ralph Kramden – 5
I was there, if the crowd of that side is 30,000 then the red must have gathered at least 200,000.