I thought that one of the most interesting things about Suthep’s speech was that he said that the crackdown was down to him and that Abhisit had nothing to do with it. One wonders what Abhisit was doing at the army base at the time. Was he in the bedroom crying while the hard men were taking the real decisions?
I suppose it’s a tactic to preserve the lilywhite image of Abhisit. Suthep doesn’t have anything like this to preserve. In fact, even diehard Democrats I’ve spoken to think Suthep is a complete disgrace so I suppose his image is beyond any further tarnishing and they may have thought it made sense for Suthep to be the fall guy.
But I think it backfires and, as SteveCM suggests, makes Abhisit look like a weak little sook who’s not up to the job at all.
Hey anyone knows , apart from thaicable blog ,where else has the direct link to download thaistory part 2. I can’t download the one in thaicable blog ( box.net doesn’t work here )
Thank you, Andrew, for such exhaustive reporting. The hyperlinks are particularly appreciated. Just finished reading part I, which will take some time to think over, but eagerly awaiting Part II. Not too much new information but still nice to hear those rumors confirmed and see it all laid out in writing for the public.
I guess what struck me more than anything else, what didn’t dawn on me even after reading most of the source material, is how normal They seem as a family dynamic – the same problems so many other families have – and maybe that’s the real danger of the truth: the cognitive dissonance people will suffer when we all realize, They are human, just like us, and not at all infallible.
1) By focusing on the “burning of Bangkok”, Abhisit unintentionally admitted he couldn’t even effectively handle the consequences of the turmoil — let alone the causes.
2) By focusing on the burning of central Bangkok rather than the loss of lives, he made it clear whose interests he’s representing.
He just drove another two nails in his own coffin.
In looking at the cables while Skip Boyce prided himself to having the inside track on the RTG I’m not too sure if he was fully aware to the extent of the misinformation that was fed to him from by both sides especially from 2005 up to the coup. In contrast Eric John, especially towards the end of his term, seemed to be quite cognisant of this fact. In regard to the perceived slight to Prem concerning the inviation to the dinner for Bush Sr., the only US President that he held in high esteem was Ronald Reagan and I really doubt if he was offended.
True enough, last night’s performance was all about the “fear factor”. It certainly wasn’t about disclosing anything new (and if it had been, the matters of “withholding evidence” and “obstructing justice” suggest themselves) – let alone about offering anything positive.
Though – there was one revelation….. that Abhisit cried on the night of April 10 2010 and it took his wife to encourage him to go on. Well, it’s one thing for ordinary folk to confess such frailty but most people expect their leaders to have more grit, determination and confidence than that – and, arguably, the Thai like a strong leader more than most. “Tearing up” as it’s known can be a welcome sign of a human side to a leader whose robust steel-like qualities are already well established – but not to someone already cursed with a well-deserved and widely perceived reputation of being weak, manipulable and anything but “his own man”.
Appealing for the “I was a victim” sympathy vote (largely from your own supporters) doesn’t produce much net gain. Conjuring up grim images of similar future crises for the “undecideds” (however many there really are at this stage) does not work well. After all, you’ve just spent most of your campaign highlight saying how “unfair” it all was, how there was nothing else you could do and how it all upset you so much. Does any of that sound like you’re the guy to handle a second round of more of the same – never mind that you’ve so blatantly failed to achieve anything remotely like reconciliation since you’ve been in office? All this on top of whining so embarrassingly about “bullying” by ladies with cardboard signs…..
The whole evening reminded me of a veterans’ reunion where old comrades (maybe kamikaze ground crews?) gather to re-live what it was like and regale each other with tales of “Ah, do you remember when….” and “Oh, if only we had…..”.
It felt like a very long goodbye. At best, Abhisit trying to stake out his place in history – “Really, I did the best I could”. Not last night nor at any point since “taking” office has that best been good enough. It may have been a poisoned chalice that was offered in 2008 – but he’s the one who took it.
” If Thaksin was skimming cash from the lottery, then how come he hasn’t been charged with that as well?” -C38 KA
Read the Andrew Marshall story again KA. Thus to implicate Thaksin in the lottery skimming, the prosecutors would also have to implicate a Deputy Police Commander (who lost nomination to be Police Chief) and, er . . . . the other third party.
I can only read last night’s performance as an admission of defeat. The content of the speeches could have had no other purpose than to shore up the “Democrat’s” core support at the expense of reaching out to the middle ground of Thai opinion – particularly the reputed 30-40% who are said not to have made up their minds.
“Blunder” is indeed the only way to describe it. While indubitably shoring up his own core support, Abhisit has also done Puea Thai’ the inestimable favour of securing their own electoral base for them, but at absolutely no cost to them. In the meantime they are free to ignore his provocation and simply concentrate on appealing to the soft vote, most of which will not be at all impressed by last night’s emotive pyrotechnics . (I choose the term advisedly!)
Actually I am quite surprised. as I have never really thought he was that stupid. I am no psephologist, but my uneducated guess is that he may have cost his party as many as ten seats and pushed Puea Thai much closer to the possibility of securing an absolute majority.
Incdentally, it may also be greatly to Puea Thai’s advantage that Jatuporn is safely locked up and can’t do any damage to the cool manner by which Yingluck and the rest have been running the PT campaign!
Thanks Andrew, very much enjoyed your article. It certainly tied together several other things I had heard into a concise explanation of what the dramas here are really (probably) all about. Naturally the critics who know better never actually put themselves out there so ignore them.
I thought the King was rightfully dealt with in a positive light, however comments about his wife and children will of course mean you will never set foot in Thailand again unless you plan an insiders expose of Thai prison life.
Seems like Taksin is set for another electoral win, but still can’t see how his protagonists could ever allow it. Seems we wait and see which of the only bad outcome will triumph.
The transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is supposed to be “Chaang dtaii tang dtua aow bai bua bid mai mid”, tsai mai ka?
Mai chai, khrap. Pid, not bid. Or bpid, using your scheme. Personally I’d prefer p, ph, t and th to bp, p, dt and t, but there are as many different transliterations as there are authors of get-by-in-Thai books, so take your pick.
To those Thais who already made their choices, the Democrat Party rally at Rachaprasong will not sway them one way or the other. But for the other 30% or so undecided’s, the DP Rachaprason rally would have a very favorable effect to sway the undecided’s vote the Democrat’s way.
The undecided’s are largely made up of voters disenchanted with the DP’s achievements and scared/distrustful of Peau Thai Party because of the recent Red Shirts rampage and Thaksin’s dark influence. I am betting they would be finally be swayed by the ‘fear’ factor . . . that a winning PTP rule would lead to more, not less, instability and unrest for the whole Kingdom while the succession issue had not been settled.
Thanks for the guidance to The Times article – which contains the odd error of fact.
1. Prince Vajiralongkorn was born on 28th July 1952. Princess Sirindhorn was born on 2nd April 1955. That would make her his younger sister, and to the best of my knowledge she has NEVER challenged his claim to the throne.
2. I think the Thai government is worldly enough to be aware of the content of secret diplomatic cables. Imagine what the Thai ambassador in Washington would have reported about, say, Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.
3. Foreigners convicted of lese majeste tend to be pardoned and deported faily quickly. Harry Nicolaides only served 6 months, and in my view he deserved it for the grammatical errors in his novel.
4. Fufu the white poodle wasn’t named after an air marshal; he holds the rank of air marshal. A little eccentric, perhaps, but if the Roman emperor Caligula could make his horse a consul, why not make a poodle an air marshal? At least he wouldn’t be taking kick-backs on fighter aircraft purchases.
5. Princess Srirasm was wearing high-heeled shoes with her g-string, and very fetching she looked, too. “The people”, whoever they are, may have difficulty accepting her as queen, but there seems to be no shortage of loyal subjects willing to protrate themselves at her feet during her public appearances (if the evening royal news is anything to go by).
6. If Thaksin was skimming cash from the lottery, then how come he hasn’t been charged with that as well?
Thank you, Khun Kitti, for the concluding statement. Nothing like a little diplomatic calm and dignity. It’s a pity that so many New Mandala commentators are going to be disappointed when the inevitable occurs and the transition is actually smoothly executed.
LesAbbey (30). Guess who owns the majority of Shin Corp now? After creating the situation where Temasek had to sell cheaply!
When most of the third world is run by big crime families, why keep picking on the Shinawatras? It’s obsessive and unbalanced.
I sure hope Andrew doesn’t plan on making a living in future from peddling this story. I don’t think there will much a market for a book made up of mostly excerpts, often taken out of context, of previously published works and unconfirmed allegations from illegally leaked US diplomatic cables carefully chosen to reinforce Andrew’s obvious bias.
Of course, there will be the small, but highly vocal hard core, that will crow about what an insightful, truthful piece that will change forever how Thailand is perceived simply because it agree with their position.
As long as it is freely available, I will continue to read the forthcoming chapters. Unlike many others here, I have no problem reading other viewpoints and when you ignore the bias, it does contain a good summary of events as perceived by a variety of sources.
Keep it up Andrew, it is a good read and you deserve credit for putting it together.
According to the official Thai government system for transcribing Thai into English (which no-one else seems to use with any measure of accuracy and consistency), the transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is “chang tay thang tua ao bai bua pit mai mit”.
The system does not really lend itself to transcribing spoken Thai into English because it doesn’t differentiate between short and long vowel forms and it ignores tones. However, its only real purpose is for transcribing Thai names into English, and it does that rather well. Had it been correctly applied, the new airport would have been called Suwannaphum, the outgoing prime minister would have been Aphisit Wetchachiwa and his replacement Yinglak Chinawat, and Andrew Bigg’s regular column would have been called Sanuk.
The transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is supposed to be “Chaang dtaii tang dtua aow bai bua bid mai mid”, tsai mai ka?
LesAbbey: Your comment is not dissimilar to Chapter V of #thaistory , upcoming later today. You and I clearly have many different views, but we agree on some things too. Best wishes.
Isn’t it strange when we start to look at who comes out of the Wikileaks cables with any credit so far. They are so few we can easily list them.
From the earlier released cables it would have to be the minister under the coup installed government fighting the US over generic drugs. Then the old men of the Privy Council seem to be some of the few people mentioned that have altruistic motives. Then today’s release even shows Abhisit trying to do the right thing.
So R.N. England do you agree with what your summary of Andrew Marshall’s says? If so why on earth have you been flying Thaksin’s flag on New Mandala for so long?
LesAbbey @45 (sorry for the delay in replying) said: “Kevin if you say that the establishment only supports elections if they can win, and then we have an election where there is a good chance they will lose, there is obviously something wrong with the first statement.”
The problem is that in the original post I didn’t say that. What I said was: The “establishment” only supports elections if they can win them.
I believe there is a difference between supporting elections and deciding to have one.
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Abhisit’s blunder
I thought that one of the most interesting things about Suthep’s speech was that he said that the crackdown was down to him and that Abhisit had nothing to do with it. One wonders what Abhisit was doing at the army base at the time. Was he in the bedroom crying while the hard men were taking the real decisions?
I suppose it’s a tactic to preserve the lilywhite image of Abhisit. Suthep doesn’t have anything like this to preserve. In fact, even diehard Democrats I’ve spoken to think Suthep is a complete disgrace so I suppose his image is beyond any further tarnishing and they may have thought it made sense for Suthep to be the fall guy.
But I think it backfires and, as SteveCM suggests, makes Abhisit look like a weak little sook who’s not up to the job at all.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Hey anyone knows , apart from thaicable blog ,where else has the direct link to download thaistory part 2. I can’t download the one in thaicable blog ( box.net doesn’t work here )
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Thank you, Andrew, for such exhaustive reporting. The hyperlinks are particularly appreciated. Just finished reading part I, which will take some time to think over, but eagerly awaiting Part II. Not too much new information but still nice to hear those rumors confirmed and see it all laid out in writing for the public.
I guess what struck me more than anything else, what didn’t dawn on me even after reading most of the source material, is how normal They seem as a family dynamic – the same problems so many other families have – and maybe that’s the real danger of the truth: the cognitive dissonance people will suffer when we all realize, They are human, just like us, and not at all infallible.
Abhisit’s blunder
Two major blunders I can think of:
1) By focusing on the “burning of Bangkok”, Abhisit unintentionally admitted he couldn’t even effectively handle the consequences of the turmoil — let alone the causes.
2) By focusing on the burning of central Bangkok rather than the loss of lives, he made it clear whose interests he’s representing.
He just drove another two nails in his own coffin.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
In looking at the cables while Skip Boyce prided himself to having the inside track on the RTG I’m not too sure if he was fully aware to the extent of the misinformation that was fed to him from by both sides especially from 2005 up to the coup. In contrast Eric John, especially towards the end of his term, seemed to be quite cognisant of this fact. In regard to the perceived slight to Prem concerning the inviation to the dinner for Bush Sr., the only US President that he held in high esteem was Ronald Reagan and I really doubt if he was offended.
Abhisit’s blunder
True enough, last night’s performance was all about the “fear factor”. It certainly wasn’t about disclosing anything new (and if it had been, the matters of “withholding evidence” and “obstructing justice” suggest themselves) – let alone about offering anything positive.
Though – there was one revelation….. that Abhisit cried on the night of April 10 2010 and it took his wife to encourage him to go on. Well, it’s one thing for ordinary folk to confess such frailty but most people expect their leaders to have more grit, determination and confidence than that – and, arguably, the Thai like a strong leader more than most. “Tearing up” as it’s known can be a welcome sign of a human side to a leader whose robust steel-like qualities are already well established – but not to someone already cursed with a well-deserved and widely perceived reputation of being weak, manipulable and anything but “his own man”.
Appealing for the “I was a victim” sympathy vote (largely from your own supporters) doesn’t produce much net gain. Conjuring up grim images of similar future crises for the “undecideds” (however many there really are at this stage) does not work well. After all, you’ve just spent most of your campaign highlight saying how “unfair” it all was, how there was nothing else you could do and how it all upset you so much. Does any of that sound like you’re the guy to handle a second round of more of the same – never mind that you’ve so blatantly failed to achieve anything remotely like reconciliation since you’ve been in office? All this on top of whining so embarrassingly about “bullying” by ladies with cardboard signs…..
The whole evening reminded me of a veterans’ reunion where old comrades (maybe kamikaze ground crews?) gather to re-live what it was like and regale each other with tales of “Ah, do you remember when….” and “Oh, if only we had…..”.
It felt like a very long goodbye. At best, Abhisit trying to stake out his place in history – “Really, I did the best I could”. Not last night nor at any point since “taking” office has that best been good enough. It may have been a poisoned chalice that was offered in 2008 – but he’s the one who took it.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
” If Thaksin was skimming cash from the lottery, then how come he hasn’t been charged with that as well?” -C38 KA
Read the Andrew Marshall story again KA. Thus to implicate Thaksin in the lottery skimming, the prosecutors would also have to implicate a Deputy Police Commander (who lost nomination to be Police Chief) and, er . . . . the other third party.
Get it yet KA?
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
I think the author should be called Andrew MacGregor Marshall, since Andrew Marshall did not write this Thai Story. I had thought he did write it.
Abhisit’s blunder
I can only read last night’s performance as an admission of defeat. The content of the speeches could have had no other purpose than to shore up the “Democrat’s” core support at the expense of reaching out to the middle ground of Thai opinion – particularly the reputed 30-40% who are said not to have made up their minds.
“Blunder” is indeed the only way to describe it. While indubitably shoring up his own core support, Abhisit has also done Puea Thai’ the inestimable favour of securing their own electoral base for them, but at absolutely no cost to them. In the meantime they are free to ignore his provocation and simply concentrate on appealing to the soft vote, most of which will not be at all impressed by last night’s emotive pyrotechnics . (I choose the term advisedly!)
Actually I am quite surprised. as I have never really thought he was that stupid. I am no psephologist, but my uneducated guess is that he may have cost his party as many as ten seats and pushed Puea Thai much closer to the possibility of securing an absolute majority.
Incdentally, it may also be greatly to Puea Thai’s advantage that Jatuporn is safely locked up and can’t do any damage to the cool manner by which Yingluck and the rest have been running the PT campaign!
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Thanks Andrew, very much enjoyed your article. It certainly tied together several other things I had heard into a concise explanation of what the dramas here are really (probably) all about. Naturally the critics who know better never actually put themselves out there so ignore them.
I thought the King was rightfully dealt with in a positive light, however comments about his wife and children will of course mean you will never set foot in Thailand again unless you plan an insiders expose of Thai prison life.
Seems like Taksin is set for another electoral win, but still can’t see how his protagonists could ever allow it. Seems we wait and see which of the only bad outcome will triumph.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
The transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is supposed to be “Chaang dtaii tang dtua aow bai bua bid mai mid”, tsai mai ka?
Mai chai, khrap. Pid, not bid. Or bpid, using your scheme. Personally I’d prefer p, ph, t and th to bp, p, dt and t, but there are as many different transliterations as there are authors of get-by-in-Thai books, so take your pick.
Abhisit’s blunder
To those Thais who already made their choices, the Democrat Party rally at Rachaprasong will not sway them one way or the other. But for the other 30% or so undecided’s, the DP Rachaprason rally would have a very favorable effect to sway the undecided’s vote the Democrat’s way.
The undecided’s are largely made up of voters disenchanted with the DP’s achievements and scared/distrustful of Peau Thai Party because of the recent Red Shirts rampage and Thaksin’s dark influence. I am betting they would be finally be swayed by the ‘fear’ factor . . . that a winning PTP rule would lead to more, not less, instability and unrest for the whole Kingdom while the succession issue had not been settled.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
R.N.England #31
Thanks for the guidance to The Times article – which contains the odd error of fact.
1. Prince Vajiralongkorn was born on 28th July 1952. Princess Sirindhorn was born on 2nd April 1955. That would make her his younger sister, and to the best of my knowledge she has NEVER challenged his claim to the throne.
2. I think the Thai government is worldly enough to be aware of the content of secret diplomatic cables. Imagine what the Thai ambassador in Washington would have reported about, say, Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.
3. Foreigners convicted of lese majeste tend to be pardoned and deported faily quickly. Harry Nicolaides only served 6 months, and in my view he deserved it for the grammatical errors in his novel.
4. Fufu the white poodle wasn’t named after an air marshal; he holds the rank of air marshal. A little eccentric, perhaps, but if the Roman emperor Caligula could make his horse a consul, why not make a poodle an air marshal? At least he wouldn’t be taking kick-backs on fighter aircraft purchases.
5. Princess Srirasm was wearing high-heeled shoes with her g-string, and very fetching she looked, too. “The people”, whoever they are, may have difficulty accepting her as queen, but there seems to be no shortage of loyal subjects willing to protrate themselves at her feet during her public appearances (if the evening royal news is anything to go by).
6. If Thaksin was skimming cash from the lottery, then how come he hasn’t been charged with that as well?
Thank you, Khun Kitti, for the concluding statement. Nothing like a little diplomatic calm and dignity. It’s a pity that so many New Mandala commentators are going to be disappointed when the inevitable occurs and the transition is actually smoothly executed.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
LesAbbey (30). Guess who owns the majority of Shin Corp now? After creating the situation where Temasek had to sell cheaply!
When most of the third world is run by big crime families, why keep picking on the Shinawatras? It’s obsessive and unbalanced.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
I sure hope Andrew doesn’t plan on making a living in future from peddling this story. I don’t think there will much a market for a book made up of mostly excerpts, often taken out of context, of previously published works and unconfirmed allegations from illegally leaked US diplomatic cables carefully chosen to reinforce Andrew’s obvious bias.
Of course, there will be the small, but highly vocal hard core, that will crow about what an insightful, truthful piece that will change forever how Thailand is perceived simply because it agree with their position.
As long as it is freely available, I will continue to read the forthcoming chapters. Unlike many others here, I have no problem reading other viewpoints and when you ignore the bias, it does contain a good summary of events as perceived by a variety of sources.
Keep it up Andrew, it is a good read and you deserve credit for putting it together.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Marilyn #34
According to the official Thai government system for transcribing Thai into English (which no-one else seems to use with any measure of accuracy and consistency), the transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is “chang tay thang tua ao bai bua pit mai mit”.
The system does not really lend itself to transcribing spoken Thai into English because it doesn’t differentiate between short and long vowel forms and it ignores tones. However, its only real purpose is for transcribing Thai names into English, and it does that rather well. Had it been correctly applied, the new airport would have been called Suwannaphum, the outgoing prime minister would have been Aphisit Wetchachiwa and his replacement Yinglak Chinawat, and Andrew Bigg’s regular column would have been called Sanuk.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
The transliteration of “р╕Кр╣Йр╕▓р╕Зр╕Хр╕▓р╕вр╕Чр╕▒р╣Йр╕Зр╕Хр╕▒р╕зр╣Ар╕нр╕▓р╣Гр╕Ър╕Ър╕▒р╕зр╕Ыр╕┤р╕Фр╣Др╕бр╣Ир╕бр╕┤р╕Ф” is supposed to be “Chaang dtaii tang dtua aow bai bua bid mai mid”, tsai mai ka?
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
LesAbbey: Your comment is not dissimilar to Chapter V of #thaistory , upcoming later today. You and I clearly have many different views, but we agree on some things too. Best wishes.
Andrew Marshall’s Thai Story
Isn’t it strange when we start to look at who comes out of the Wikileaks cables with any credit so far. They are so few we can easily list them.
From the earlier released cables it would have to be the minister under the coup installed government fighting the US over generic drugs. Then the old men of the Privy Council seem to be some of the few people mentioned that have altruistic motives. Then today’s release even shows Abhisit trying to do the right thing.
http://thaicables.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/10bangkok478-thailand-gt200-bomb-detector-failure-ignites-discussion-on-civil-mil-relations-human-rights-procurement/
So R.N. England do you agree with what your summary of Andrew Marshall’s says? If so why on earth have you been flying Thaksin’s flag on New Mandala for so long?
Thailand’s invisible hand
LesAbbey @45 (sorry for the delay in replying) said: “Kevin if you say that the establishment only supports elections if they can win, and then we have an election where there is a good chance they will lose, there is obviously something wrong with the first statement.”
The problem is that in the original post I didn’t say that. What I said was: The “establishment” only supports elections if they can win them.
I believe there is a difference between supporting elections and deciding to have one.